<p>This looks like plain old bad luck.</p>

<p>P2pool is a small pool and 3 weeks is a short time. With current hashpower at pools this is like measuring BTCGuild for less than 12 hours. BTCGuild can have bad luck for 12 hours, and P2pool can have bad luck for 3 weeks.</p>

<p>That said, all pools underperform on average when compared to a simple expected income. That's because of orphaned blocks, typically 1 to 2 percent. And if you count stale/rejected shares in the hashrate, then it will underperform even more. But if income from transaction fees is not included in that expected average, then that may even out the orphans and stale work.</p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2013-03-14T19:32:37.660Z
2013-03-14T19:32:37.660Z
Dr.Haribo
<p>While looking at the current pool luck chart on <a href="http://p2pool.info/luck/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">p2pool.info</a>, I noticed that the pool as a whole seems to slowly deviate from the predicted rate of finding blocks.</p>

<p><img src="https://i.sstatic.net/0C2P1.png" alt="enter image description here"></p>

<p>From the other chart it appears that it is consistently underperforming as of 3 weeks ago.</p>

<p><img src="https://i.sstatic.net/TbZBB.png" alt="enter image description here"></p>

<p>Is there a good reason or is it just a fluke in the probabilities of finding a block?</p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2013-03-14T23:44:52.523Z
the graph across all time shows that it has deviated much more than that for much longer durations of time. I wouldn't worry about the current fluke
CQM
<mining-pools><p2pool>
What's causing P2Pool's bad luck?
cdecker
# What's causing P2Pool's bad luck?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2013-03-13)

While looking at the current pool luck chart on [p2pool.info](http://p2pool.info/luck/), I noticed that the pool as a whole seems to slowly deviate from the predicted rate of finding blocks.

![enter image description here](https://i.sstatic.net/0C2P1.png)

From the other chart it appears that it is consistently underperforming as of 3 weeks ago.

![enter image description here](https://i.sstatic.net/TbZBB.png)

Is there a good reason or is it just a fluke in the probabilities of finding a block?

**Tags:** mining-pools, p2pool

> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: the graph across all time shows that it has deviated much more than that for much longer durations of time. I wouldn't worry about the current fluke  

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## 1 answers

### Answer by username_2 on 2013-03-14. Score: 3

This looks like plain old bad luck.

P2pool is a small pool and 3 weeks is a short time. With current hashpower at pools this is like measuring BTCGuild for less than 12 hours. BTCGuild can have bad luck for 12 hours, and P2pool can have bad luck for 3 weeks.

That said, all pools underperform on average when compared to a simple expected income. That's because of orphaned blocks, typically 1 to 2 percent. And if you count stale/rejected shares in the hashrate, then it will underperform even more. But if income from transaction fees is not included in that expected average, then that may even out the orphans and stale work.


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