<p>You cannot predict the change in difficulty because that is a function of a number of factors that are completely unknowable.</p>

<p>For example, the difficulty changes because a large number of mining pools suddenly appear and have very powerful ASICs and a lot of them. How would you ever be able to "predict" this happening?</p>

<p>Another example is the opposite case, that the technology has reached it's absolute maximum and there are no new chips yet invented that could give performance boost. Although new miners enter the market, this does not fundamentally change the rate at which the new blocks are discovered, because fundamentally the chips being used are no more powerful.</p>

<p>How on earth would you be able to determine that this has happened or is occurring?</p>

<p>At best any calculator would be guessing.</p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-04-30T21:47:35.170Z
yes there is no straight forward algorithm to calculate it but a prediction market could achieve good results: compare: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/difficulty/
user599464
CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-01-21T11:49:24.857Z
2014-01-21T11:49:24.857Z
T9b
<p>I understand that the difficulty is growing and think that it should be possible to estimate how quickly that happens. I would like to analyze the previous difficulty progression and feel that I then should be able to predict the change in difficulty for the next year. </p>

<p>Are there already calculators that predict the change in difficulty? Where can I find a chart that compares the Bitcoin price to the difficulty progression?</p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-01-20T03:57:12.013Z
What's "complexity"? Do you mean [difficulty](https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty)?
Nate Eldredge
CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-01-20T08:27:28.653Z
Yes. I mean difficulty
Max
CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-01-20T18:19:41.223Z
I rewrote the question as I think you meant it. Please check if I was able to capture your intent and revise it to your liking (you can always edit your own question).
Murch
CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-01-20T18:21:19.357Z
related: [How is difficulty calculated?](http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/q/5838/5406)
Murch
<difficulty>
How can one estimate the difficulty change?
Max
# How can one estimate the difficulty change?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2014-01-20)

I understand that the difficulty is growing and think that it should be possible to estimate how quickly that happens. I would like to analyze the previous difficulty progression and feel that I then should be able to predict the change in difficulty for the next year.

Are there already calculators that predict the change in difficulty? Where can I find a chart that compares the Bitcoin price to the difficulty progression?

**Tags:** difficulty

> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: What's "complexity"? Do you mean [difficulty](https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty)?  
> **username_0**: Yes. I mean difficulty  
> **username_2**: I rewrote the question as I think you meant it. Please check if I was able to capture your intent and revise it to your liking (you can always edit your own question).  
> **username_2**: related: [How is difficulty calculated?](http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/q/5838/5406)  

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## 1 answers

### Answer by username_3 on 2014-01-21. Score: 1

You cannot predict the change in difficulty because that is a function of a number of factors that are completely unknowable.

For example, the difficulty changes because a large number of mining pools suddenly appear and have very powerful ASICs and a lot of them. How would you ever be able to "predict" this happening?

Another example is the opposite case, that the technology has reached it's absolute maximum and there are no new chips yet invented that could give performance boost. Although new miners enter the market, this does not fundamentally change the rate at which the new blocks are discovered, because fundamentally the chips being used are no more powerful.

How on earth would you be able to determine that this has happened or is occurring?

At best any calculator would be guessing.

> **Comments:**
> **username_4**: yes there is no straight forward algorithm to calculate it but a prediction market could achieve good results: compare: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/difficulty/  

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