<p>For a transaction to be included in a block, the probability is related to the fee that transaction pays to the miner (higher fee = more likely) and varies over time based on demand of block space (more congested = higher fee needed). It's also unpredictable because miners can choose whatever transactions they want to, doesn't always have to be the x highest fees. </p>

<p>Here's some stats on current fee vs confirmation time estimations: <a href="https://bitcoinfees.21.co" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://bitcoinfees.21.co</a></p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2017-10-10T15:59:19.350Z
Thanks for your answer. My question wasn't clear enough I meant statistically how many unconfirmed transactions are rejected? Ive updated my answer.
user61488
CC BY-SA 3.0
2017-10-10T09:35:48.913Z
2017-10-10T09:35:48.913Z
meshcollider
<p>I need to analyse unconfirmed transactions and I'm interested in knowing what is the probability for a given unconfirmed transactions to be confirmed.</p>

<p>Depending on the model, I see two solutions:</p>

<ul>
<li>checking for a relatively long period of time how many transactions had been submitted and checking how many had been confirmed.</li>
<li>searching pattern behavior in the structure of a transaction that will lead to a rejection.</li>
</ul>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2017-10-10T16:04:24.673Z
Ask me to flood the network with transactions which will never confirm and you will get ANY digits in your statistics :)
amaclin
CC BY-SA 3.0
2017-10-11T08:47:51.970Z
That's exactly my point, flooding has a very specific behavior pattern that can be detected *often*.
user61488
CC BY-SA 3.0
2017-10-11T09:16:07.063Z
If you are asking this question this means that you will not be able to detect my flood transactions from regular ones :) ok, we can continue the conversation (if you are interested in experiment) via email (in my profile)
amaclin
<unconfirmed-transactions>
Statistically how many unconfirmed transactions get rejected?
user61488
# Statistically how many unconfirmed transactions get rejected?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2017-10-10)

I need to analyse unconfirmed transactions and I'm interested in knowing what is the probability for a given unconfirmed transactions to be confirmed.

Depending on the model, I see two solutions:

* checking for a relatively long period of time how many transactions had been submitted and checking how many had been confirmed.
* searching pattern behavior in the structure of a transaction that will lead to a rejection.

**Tags:** unconfirmed-transactions

> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: Ask me to flood the network with transactions which will never confirm and you will get ANY digits in your statistics :)  
> **username_0**: That's exactly my point, flooding has a very specific behavior pattern that can be detected *often*.  
> **username_1**: If you are asking this question this means that you will not be able to detect my flood transactions from regular ones :) ok, we can continue the conversation (if you are interested in experiment) via email (in my profile)  

---

## 1 answers

### Answer by username_2 on 2017-10-10. Score: 1

For a transaction to be included in a block, the probability is related to the fee that transaction pays to the miner (higher fee = more likely) and varies over time based on demand of block space (more congested = higher fee needed). It's also unpredictable because miners can choose whatever transactions they want to, doesn't always have to be the x highest fees.

Here's some stats on current fee vs confirmation time estimations: <https://bitcoinfees.21.co>

> **Comments:**
> **username_0**: Thanks for your answer. My question wasn't clear enough I meant statistically how many unconfirmed transactions are rejected? Ive updated my answer.  

---

