<p>The time T until a block is mined follows an <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_distribution" rel="nofollow noreferrer">exponential distribution</a>.  Assuming the difficulty has properly calibrated to the network hash rate, the rate parameter for T will be λ = 1/10 per minute.  So the probability that the block is mined within t minutes is 
<code>P(T &lt;= t) = 1 - exp(-t/10)</code>.</p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2017-04-05T07:58:34.967Z
That reminds me, I wanted to ask you what you thought about this related question: http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/q/43440/5406
Murch
CC BY-SA 3.0
2017-04-05T05:37:06.547Z
2017-04-05T05:37:06.547Z
Nate Eldredge
<p>I know that a block usually takes 10 minutes on average to get confirmed. But what is the probability that this will happen?</p>

<p>I mean is there any formula that we can use to calculate the probability that a block will be confirmed in the bitcoin network within x minutes? (assuming that the resources are fixed in the whole network)</p>

<block-interval>
Probability that a block will be confirmed in x minutes
Mije
# Probability that a block will be confirmed in x minutes

(Asked by: username_0 on 2017-04-05)

I know that a block usually takes 10 minutes on average to get confirmed. But what is the probability that this will happen?

I mean is there any formula that we can use to calculate the probability that a block will be confirmed in the bitcoin network within x minutes? (assuming that the resources are fixed in the whole network)

**Tags:** block-interval


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## 1 answers

### Answer by username_1 on 2017-04-05. Score: 3

The time T until a block is mined follows an [exponential distribution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_distribution). Assuming the difficulty has properly calibrated to the network hash rate, the rate parameter for T will be λ = 1/10 per minute. So the probability that the block is mined within t minutes is
`P(T <= t) = 1 - exp(-t/10)`.

> **Comments:**
> **username_2**: That reminds me, I wanted to ask you what you thought about this related question: http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/q/43440/5406  

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