<h1>Probability</h1>
<p>As  MCCCS comented:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Your hashrate divided by total hashrate is the probability of you finding the next block.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>As of March 2021</p>
<div class="s-table-container">
<table class="s-table">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Item</th>
<th style="text-align: right;">Hashrate MH/s</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Typical desktop computer's i7 CPU</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">24</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Antminer S19 Pro</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">110,000,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Bitcoin network</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">156,000,000,000,000</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p>So every ten minutes a CPU miner would have a 1 in 6,500,000,000,000 chance of earning 6.25 BTC. You have a 1 in 139,000,000 chance of winning the Euromillions lottery so lottery tickets will give you an overwhelmingly better return on investment in the longer term than does CPU mining. In both cases you are more likely to lose lots of money than see any profit.</p>
<hr />
<h1>&quot;Expected earnings&quot;</h1>
<p>You can also key your hashrate into an online calculator to find your &quot;expected earnings&quot;.</p>
<div class="s-table-container">
<table class="s-table">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Setting</th>
<th>Value</th>
<th>Units</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Difficulty Factor</td>
<td>1.54660989356e+13</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Hash Rate</td>
<td>24.0</td>
<td>MH/s</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Exchange Rate</td>
<td>50809.85</td>
<td>($/BTC) [user]</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>BTC / Block</td>
<td>6.25000000</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p>This Difficulty</p>
<div class="s-table-container">
<table class="s-table">
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th>Coins</th>
<th>Dollars</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>per Day</td>
<td>0.00000000 BTC</td>
<td>$0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>per Week</td>
<td>0.00000000 BTC</td>
<td>$0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>per Month</td>
<td>0.00000001 BTC</td>
<td>$0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>this diff (est)</td>
<td>0.00000008 BTC</td>
<td>$0.00</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p>Next Difficulty [estimated]</p>
<div class="s-table-container">
<table class="s-table">
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th>Coins</th>
<th>Dollars</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>per Day</td>
<td>0.00000000 BTC</td>
<td>$0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>\per Week</td>
<td>0.00000000 BTC</td>
<td>$0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>per Month</td>
<td>0.00000001 BTC</td>
<td>$0.00</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p>Of course, you might get lucky.</p>
<hr />
<h1>References</h1>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate</a></li>
<li><a href="https://alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator</a></li>
</ul>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2021-03-04T10:58:17.637Z
2021-03-07T14:17:57.290Z
2021-03-07T14:17:57.290Z
RedGrittyBrick
<p>In an ideal world, if a miner has α fraction of hashing power, the probability of them finding the next block is α.</p>
<p>It should not depend on any other factor, but in real-world network speeds, block propagation and verification speed complicate things.</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2021-03-04T23:37:55.907Z
2021-03-04T23:37:55.907Z
sanket1729
<p>Suppose a miner controls α fraction of the hashing power and the chain on which he is trying to mine has the mining rate given by f. How to find the probability of mining a block by the miner?</p>

<mining-theory>
What is the probability of mining a block by a miner controlling a fraction of hashing power?
RandomBoy
# What is the probability of mining a block by a miner controlling a fraction of hashing power?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2020-05-29)

Suppose a miner controls α fraction of the hashing power and the chain on which he is trying to mine has the mining rate given by f. How to find the probability of mining a block by the miner?

**Tags:** mining-theory


---

## 2 answers

### Answer by username_1 on 2021-03-04. Score: 2

# Probability

As MCCCS comented:

> Your hashrate divided by total hashrate is the probability of you finding the next block.

As of March 2021

| Item | Hashrate MH/s |
| --- | --- |
| Typical desktop computer's i7 CPU | 24 |
| Antminer S19 Pro | 110,000,000 |
| Bitcoin network | 156,000,000,000,000 |

So every ten minutes a CPU miner would have a 1 in 6,500,000,000,000 chance of earning 6.25 BTC. You have a 1 in 139,000,000 chance of winning the Euromillions lottery so lottery tickets will give you an overwhelmingly better return on investment in the longer term than does CPU mining. In both cases you are more likely to lose lots of money than see any profit.

---

# "Expected earnings"

You can also key your hashrate into an online calculator to find your "expected earnings".

| Setting | Value | Units |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Difficulty Factor | 1.54660989356e+13 |  |
| Hash Rate | 24.0 | MH/s |
| Exchange Rate | 50809.85 | ($/BTC) [user] |
| BTC / Block | 6.25000000 |  |

This Difficulty

|  | Coins | Dollars |
| --- | --- | --- |
| per Day | 0.00000000 BTC | $0.00 |
| per Week | 0.00000000 BTC | $0.00 |
| per Month | 0.00000001 BTC | $0.00 |
| this diff (est) | 0.00000008 BTC | $0.00 |

Next Difficulty [estimated]

|  | Coins | Dollars |
| --- | --- | --- |
| per Day | 0.00000000 BTC | $0.00 |
| \per Week | 0.00000000 BTC | $0.00 |
| per Month | 0.00000001 BTC | $0.00 |

Of course, you might get lucky.

---

# References

* <https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate>
* <https://alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator>


---

### Answer by username_2 on 2021-03-04. Score: 1

In an ideal world, if a miner has α fraction of hashing power, the probability of them finding the next block is α.

It should not depend on any other factor, but in real-world network speeds, block propagation and verification speed complicate things.


---

