Black Heart Gold Pants - All Posts Swelling with Iowa Hawkeye pride since 2007 2014-12-17T15:03:53-06:00 2014-12-17T15:03:53-06:00 2014-12-17T15:03:53-06:00 The Epilogue 2014: The Offense <img alt="" src="" /> <p>In which we ponder the Iowa offense in exhaustive detail. </p> <p>As usual, <a target="_blank" href="">#AllTheFistJabs to MGoBlog</a>, from whom we shamelessly poached this idea.</p> <h4>Departures, in Order of Importance</h4> <p><b>1. <a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Brandon Scherff</a>, LT. </b> This is a no-brainer. Scherff is arguably the best lineman of the Ferentz Era at Iowa -- or at least the best since Robert Gallery in 2003. He was a two-time All-Big Ten First Team contributor, widely recognized as an All-<a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">American</a>, and this year's Outland Trophy winner. He leaves enormous shoes to fill and a gargantuan void in Iowa's offensive line. For the last two seasons, Iowa had an absolute rock that it could rely on at left tackle -- those days are gone for now. We've written a lot about Scherff in recent weeks (and deservedly so) and this is going to be a monster of a post, so I'm inclined to keep this brief: Scherff was a spectacular player and the Iowa offense is absolutely going to be weaker for his absence. Replacing him is the single-biggest question mark for the Iowa offense (well, maybe the second-biggest question mark... we'll get to one that might be bigger in a while) entering the offseason.</p> <p><b>2. Mark Weisman, RB.</b> The Air Force transfer who became a fullback who became a running back who almost became Iowa's all-time leader in rushing touchdowns (and I guess he still could if he has a monster performance against Tennessee in the bowl game). Weisman had a somewhat odd career at Iowa in terms of production: despite running behind increasingly better offensive lines (more or less), his efficiency dipped every season: he went from 5.13 ypc in 2012 to 4.31 ypc in 2013 to 3.89 ypc in 2014. That stat is a recognition of defenses figuring out how to limit Weisman (make him go outside, basically) as well as a sign of his own physical limitations (he was strong as an ox, but not possessed of a great deal of quickness) and the maddening tendencies of the playcalling (the success rate of outside zone runs with Weisman was, uh, not high). Still, Weisman had a tremendous nose for the end zone -- all 14 of his touchdowns this year came in the red zone and he was pretty effective at picking up first downs in short yardage situations (20 of his 31 carries of third or fourth downs resulted in first downs). Iowa will miss the Hebrew Hammer next year.</p> <p><b>3. <a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Kevonte Martin-Manley</a>, WR. </b> For the third straight year, Martin-Manley led Iowa in receptions with 49, and he's on the verge of becoming Iowa's all-time leader in catches (he needs just three receptions in the bowl game to surpass DJK). Martin-Manley is also on pace to finish with the second-highest yardage total of his Iowa career (he currently has 494 yards) and could even finish with the highest yardage total of his career with a standout showing against Tennessee. KMM's touchdown total dipped this year (two, down from five last season), but he's never been a prolific touchdown guy -- only 12 of his career 171 receptions have resulted in touchdowns. KMM in 2014 is exactly what he's always been: a solid possession receiver and a reliable outlet for Rudock (19 of his 49 receptions came on third down -- and 18 of those catches resulted in first downs). Through the ups and downs of the Iowa offense over the last few years, Martin-Manley has been probably Iowa's most consistent performer. That steadiness has been appreciated.</p> <p><b>4. <a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Andrew Donnal</a>, RT. </b> The "other" tackle. While Scherff got all of the attention and accolades, Donnal quietly manned the right tackle spot all season and... did pretty well, actually. We weren't too sure about him <a href="" target="_blank">at this time last year</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>He plays high, and he plays without leverage, and he's frequently outmaneuvered by speed rushers. There's a possibility that Iowa puts him at right tackle this year and moves Ward to the interior line, but that doesn't look particularly likely.</p> </blockquote> <p>...but I'm happy to say that we were wrong. He wasn't perfect -- he got caught playing too high a few times, he fell prey to a few speed rushers -- but he was a solid presence bookending the right side of the Iowa offensive line. Donnal ended up having a quiet season, which actually wasn't a bad thing: it's hard to recall a lot of plays where he pancaked a defender, but it's also hard to recall a lot of plays where he completely whiffed on a block, too. Donnal wasn't the best lineman, he wasn't the flashiest lineman, but he was a solid presence along the line.</p> <p><b>5. Damond Powell, WR.</b> I think it's fair to say that <a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Damond Powell's</a> brief Iowa career did not quite live up to expectations -- or at least hopes. The numbers don't lie:</p> <p>2013: 12 catches, 291 yards, 2 TD<br>2014: 18 catches, 321 yards, 3 TD</p> <p>Those are decent stats, but they don't jump off the page. Bad luck played a part in Powell's struggles; he was a late arrival to campus in 2013 and an injury in 2014 kept him out of most of the fall training camp; for a guy who allegedly struggled to grasp Iowa's playbook, that missing practice time was no doubt very costly. Powell likely would have benefited from a redshirt year at some point, but Iowa's desperate need for someone, <i>anyone</i> who could generate a big play meant that he needed to be used. Of course, that same need for big plays is also why the use of Powell was so frustrating; even if he couldn't grasp the full route tree in the passing game, weren't there other ways to utilize a guy with his speed? When we talk about the Iowa coaching staff focusing too much on what a guy <i>can't </i>do well, rather than emphasizing the things he <i>can</i> do well, Powell is Exhibit A.</p> <p><b>6. <a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Tommy Gaul</a>, C. </b>Gaul was a fairly quintessential Iowa story: a former walk-on who redshirted and bided his time for several years, before finally breaking through with a starting role as a senior. He began the year on the bench, but Iowa's inconsistency along the interior of the offensive line led to some re-shuffling, with starting center <a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Austin Blythe</a> sliding to left guard and Gaul moving into Blythe's vacated role in the center of the line. Gaul may have never gotten a shot to start if the <a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Jordan Walsh</a>/Sean Welsh situation had been less muddled, but he did a solid job of making the most out of his opportunity -- the Iowa offensive really <i>did</i> seem to perform better after he took over at C and Blythe moved to LG.</p> <p><b>7. Ray Hamilton, TE. </b>Hamilton came to Iowa as a near-4* recruit and seemed destined to be the next impressive Iowa tight end, only... it didn't quite pan out that way. Hamilton entered his senior season with career totals of 11 catches for 130 yards and zero touchdowns; he struggled to double even those meager totals as a senior (15 catches, 124 yards, 2 TD). There was hope that Hamilton would flourish this year, out of C.J. Fiedorowicz's shadow, but it just didn't happen. Hamilton was a very able blocker, but he never seemed to find a role in the passing game. In fairness to Hamitlon, the Iowa offense under <a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Greg Davis</a> also hasn't been quite as kind to tight ends as the Iowa offenses of the past.</p> <p><b>8. <a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Damon Bullock</a>, RB.</b> By the end of September, Damon Bullock was firmly entrenched in his role as a third-down back. He had 12 carries in the Iowa State game; they amassed 22 yards. Over Iowa's nine remaining games, he had 9 carries total and failed to play in two games. He did have 32 receptions for 265 yards, highlighted by an 8-catch, 100-yard outing against Maryland. Bullock was also one of Iowa's most trusted back in blitz pick-up and, honestly, that's where he might be missed the most, given the struggles of Canzeri and Daniels in that department. Still, Bullock's role in the offense feels like the easiest one to fill out of Iowa's holes.</p> <h4>What's Left, Also Roughly in Order of Importance</h4> <p><b>1. <a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Jake Rudock</a>, QB. </b> Rudock has become the most divisive and debated about Iowa football player since, uh, the last guy to quarterback the Hawkeyes. It turns out that people have strong opinions about quarterbacks; who knew?! A large portion of the fanbase is simply ready to move on from Rudock, an inconsistent player with fairly average athletic ability (among quarterbacks, at least) who's come up short on several occasions. As that portion of the fanbase does not seem to include Kirk Ferentz, though, they seem unlikely to get their wish. Barring a debilitating injury (which we absolutely do not wish to happen on Rudock at all) or some other shocking development, Rudock seems likely to begin 2015 as Iowa's starting quarterback.</p> <p>I can understand where the "move on" crowd is coming from -- watching Rudock turtle up against Iowa State or Nebraska in the second halves of those games was excruciating. And yet there have been times -- more than a few, in fact -- where he's flashed some really strong leadership and looked like the sort of efficient, effective passer that can lead Iowa to success. The fourth quarter against Ball State. The first half against Pitt. The first quarter against Indiana. The second half against Wisconsin. Obviously, the problem is that we don't get that Jake nearly often enough -- instead, we get ho-hum Jake or, worse, bad Jake and the offense dies like an old Chevy on the side of the road.</p> <p>The question for the key figures involved in the Iowa offense in 2015 -- for Jake, for Greg Davis, for Kirk Ferentz -- is whether or not they have the answer to getting good Jake on the field more often. Iowa can win with good Jake. Iowa is doomed with any other Jake. Personally, I'm skeptical, although that probably has as much to do with several supporting factors -- a young, likely inconsistent offensive line; an uncertain running back situation; and a receiving corps bereft of Jake's two favorite safety blankets (KMM and Bullock) -- as it does with Jake himself. But I hope I'm wrong.</p> <p><b>2. <a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Tevaun Smith</a>, WR. </b> If Tevaun Smith hits his season average in terms of receiving yards (just 46.6 ypg) in the bowl game, he'll become Iowa's first 600-yard receiver since Marvin McNutt (1315 yards) and <a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Keenan Davis</a> (713 yards) in 2011. For an Iowa offense that's been largely bereft of playmakers at wide receiver since McNutt departed, that's kind of a big deal. Smith flashed at times a season ago, but his inconsistency seemed to prevent him from becoming a bigger part of the Iowa passing game. Flash forward to now and the frustration is with the inconsistent playcalling that doesn't get Smith involved in the offense more, not Smith himself. Smith had four catches in five of Iowa's last seven games and racked up 69 or more yards in four of those games, to go along with two touchdowns. Smith was even a positive factor when he didn't catch the ball -- he was able to successfully draw pass interference penalties on more than a few occasions when Iowa targeted him deep. Smith may not be elite at any one thing -- speed, catching ability, route running -- but he's become very good at a lot of them and he needs to be one of the focal points of the Iowa offense in 2015. Greg Davis has harped about the need to get more big plays on offense -- Tevaun Smith can be that guy. Good things happen for the Iowa offense when he's involved. Get him the damn ball.</p> <p><b>3. Austin Blythe, OL.</b> Depending on how things shake out elsewhere along the line, it's possible that Iowa returns just one starter among their offensive linemen next year (Blythe)... and we're not even sure where he's going to start next year. Blythe began the year at center, but moved to guard to help solve the inconsistent playing coming from the Welsh/Walsh guard pairing. He's been effective in both positions, so which position he starts at likely depends on how the rest of the line shakes out. If Iowa can get more consistent play out of the guard position, expect Blythe to return to center. But if Iowa isn't able to find two guys that can play guard at a high level, we can probably expect to see Blythe filling one of those holes. Either way, Blythe is a smart, physical, and plays with a mean streak. He's going to be the leader of the Iowa offensive line next season and we're going to rely on him quite a bit in 2015.</p> <p><b>4. <a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Jordan Canzeri</a>, RB. </b> With <a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Mark Weisman's</a> looming departure, Canzeri figures to enter the offseason as Iowa's starter at running back. Whether he's still in that spot when Iowa opens the season against Illinois State on September 5 is open for debate. Canzeri ended 2013 looking like Iowa's best running back: after sparing use throughout the first half of the season, he ran for 366 yards on 50 carries, a very healthy 7.3 ypc average. Granted, much of that production came against a dreadful Purdue defense and a worn-down Nebraska defense, but still: Canzeri looked like the spark that the running game needed and there was a hope that he might emerge as a very solid rotation piece with Mark Weisman. That... didn't happen. Canzeri ran for 374 yards on 90 carries, a fairly pedestrian 4.16 ypc average. He was slowed by injuries for much of the year, but that's been one of the dirty not-so-secrets of his Iowa tenure, too -- he's not the most durable dude, so injuries are going to be an issue with him, barring a fortuitous run of injury luck. Canzeri's never going to be the sort of bell cow running back that Ferentz can pound away with for 20+ carries a game, but he can be a useful cog in the running game if he can stay healthy. How well he manages to do that will likely determine how big of a role he has in Iowa's running game next year.</p> <p><b>5. Jake Duzey, TE. </b> Duzey first turned heads in 2013 when he hauled in a long pass on his way to an 85-yard touchdown catch-and-run against Ohio State; he followed that up by nearly equaling the far more highly touted C.J. Fiedorowicz's output in the passing game (19 receptions for 270 yards versus 30 receptions for 299 yards). Duzey fully emerged as Iowa's top pass-catching tight end in 2014, hauling in 36 catches for 392 yards and a team-high 3 TD and relegating Ray Hamilton to blocking duties for the most part. With Martin-Manley departing this year, it's not hard to see Duzey emerging as a top possession option in the Iowa offense next year as well, although he has the speed and overall athletic ability to do much more than that. Iowa hasn't had a tight end top 500 receiving yards since Scott Chandler in 2006 (591 yards), so that might be setting the bar too high. But Duzey seems poised to join the 400-yard club*: since '06, that club has included <a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Brandon Myers</a> (441 yards, 2008), <a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Allen Reisner</a> (460 yards, 2010), and C.J. Fiedorowicz (433 yards, 2012). Duzey has the skills and should get the opportunities to become part of that group next year. Duzey figures to be one of the cornerstones of the Iowa offense next year -- which could be a very good thing.</p> <p><i>*Although, yes, he might also get there this year once the bowl game stats are figured in. </i></p> <p><b>6. CJ Beathard/Tyler Wiegers, QB. </b>Well, Sunshine's still an Iowa player for now. Undoubtedly, Beathard's status figures to be watched very closely from the bowl game 'til spring practice kicks off -- if he's going to transfer, then that's likely when he'd do it. If he's still here when spring practice rolls around, it likely means he's staying -- either to again fight for the starting job in 2015 or to wait for his turn in 2016. Barring an injury to Rudock in practice or a freakish Christmas ham-related accident, Beathard is unlikely to start in the bowl game in a few weeks; the die seems cast there. The $4,000,000 question is whether the die is already cast for next year, too.</p> <p>The weight of history says "yes" -- under Ferentz, Iowa has never benched a two-year starter entering his senior season (although the only past precedents appear to be Tate and Stanzi, unless I'm forgetting someone) and Ferentz doesn't seem to blame Rudock much for the team's disappointing 7-5 record this fall. (Not that he would ever say so publicly even if he did, so...) It seems very likely that the hope for a true quarterback competition* exists as a possibility far more in the minds of fans than in the minds of the coaches, but... we can't <i>completely </i>rule it out. Ferentz has made rumblings about assessing everything in the offseason and no jobs being safe... but it's certainly possible -- even probable -- that that's a lot of hot air. How well Ferentz is able to convince Beathard that his talk <i>isn't</i> just hot air will probably go a long way in determining whether or not he transfers. If Beathard <i>does </i>transfer, that leaves Iowa's primary backup as Wiegers, who redshirted this season and has never taken a snap. Given Rudock's propensity to get dinged up, that wouldn't be the most reassuring quarterback situation in the world.</p> <p><i>*It's probably more accurate to say that many Iowa fans would prefer a straight coup at the quarterback position than a competition at this point. </i></p> <p><b>7. <a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Ike Boettger</a>/<a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Cole Croston</a>, LT/RT.</b> Boettger and Croston have been listed behind Scherff and Donnal at the tackle spots on Iowa's depth chart for most of the season, so it seems reasonable to presume that they're going to be first in line for the starting spots at tackle next season. Whether that's a good thing or not is yet to be determined. What is clear, though, is that Iowa's going to have some very inexperienced tackles in 2015... which is more than a little terrifying. Boettger is a redshirt freshman and Croston is a sophomore, but neither has played significant minutes. Boettger still needs to spend time with Chris Doyle in the offseason, too -- he's listed at 270, which is a bit light for a tackle, even at Iowa. Still, there's a very good possibility that one or both of these guys is thrown into the deep end next year -- let's hope they can swim. Unless there's a mystery option waiting in the wings, we're going to need them to be quick learners -- or it could be a very long, painful year for Iowa's offense.</p> <p><b>8. LeShun Daniels/<a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Jonathan Parker</a>/<a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Akrum Wadley</a>, RB.</b> Canzeri may enter the offseason as Iowa's starting running back, but a 20 carries/game back he is not. Nor is he the most durable running back on the Iowa roster. Which is to say: there are going to be opportunities for other running backs to play -- possibly a <i>lot</i> of other opportunities. Who ends up taking most of those opportunities is still very much up in the air. Wadley flashed some very intriguing skills in his limited touches this season -- his 6.17 ypc average was by far the best of any Iowa running back with a decent number of carries and he showed good wiggle and movement in the open field. Unfortunately, he also had a tendency to put the ball on the ground a little too often -- I think he had at least one fumble in every game where he saw significant action this year. If he can't get that issue curbed, he's not going to see much action.</p> <p>Parker was, of course, Mr. Jet Sweep; the questions facing him next year are twofold: a) can he do more out of the jet sweep, and b) can he do things <i>outside</i> of the jet sweep? He brings a lot more speed to the running back position than Iowa has been accustomed to, so it would be exciting to see Iowa find more ways to make use of his skill set; sadly, that implies a greater degree of creativity than we've typically seen from the Iowa offense. Speaking of things we've typically seen from the Iowa offense... Hello, Mr. Daniels. LeShun is the most prototypical Iowa-style running back on the roster -- at least among the types of running backs Iowa has favored over the last 7-8 years (see: <a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Shonn Greene</a>, Marcus Coker, Mark Weisman). He's big and bruising like Weisman, but he also appears to have a bit more speed, as well as a touch more ability to make guys miss. That said, his on-field results through two years haven't really suggested a future star in the making: 142 yards on 36 carries in 2013 (3.94 ypc) and 42 yards on 14 carries in 2014 (3.00 ypc). 50 carries isn't much of a sample size, but the production we've seen so far should probably pump the breaks on the hype train with Daniels. There's nothing that we've really seen that would suggest he's the second coming of Shonn Greene -- or even Marcus Coker, frankly.</p> <p><b>9. Matt VandeBerg, WR.</b> Iowa loses two of its top three receivers from 2014 (Martin-Manley and Powell), which is almost 60 receptions, 820 yards, and six touchdowns that needs to be replaced. That's quite a bit of production that needs replacing. VandeBerg seems well-positioned to take over KMM's role as the reliable possession receiver in Iowa's offense. He had 12 catches for 222 yards, but 9 of those 12 receptions went for first downs. VandeBerg isn't the most physically imposing receiver on Iowa's roster (6-1, 175) and he doesn't have blazing speed, but he's earned the trust of the Iowa coaches by being a precise route runner and catching nearly everything thrown his way. Here's guessing that VandeBerg's in line for a much bigger workload in 2015 -- and that he'll do a very credible job of keeping the chains moving.</p> <p><b>10. Sean Welsh/Jordan Walsh, OL. </b> Welsh and Walsh (and, man, that is never going to stop being confusing, is it?) began the year as Iowa's starting guards, but the offensive line could never get into a consistent rhythm with those two at those spots, which led to Iowa moving Blythe over to one of the guard spots to shore things up. Welsh and Walsh struggled to get a consistent push in the running game and also had some issues dealing with blitzers up the middle -- teams certainly got more pressure attacking Iowa up the gut than on the edges. Welsh ended the season as the starter on the depth chart so he seems to be at least marginally ahead of Walsh, but not so much that it probably makes a difference. Walsh has more experience, but inconsistency was an issue for him in 2013 as well; we thought some strong performances near the end of the season indicated that a corner had been turned, but that hope seemed to be dashed this season. Unless someone on the bench has a breakthrough spring or fall training camp, it's fair to assume that at least one of these guys will be starting at guard for Iowa next fall -- hopefully they manage to find the consistency that's so far eluded them.</p> <p><b>11. <a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Eric Simmons</a>, OL. </b> Simmons was a somewhat rare JUCO transfer -- usually Iowa only adds JUCO transfers if they think they can be a prominent contributor, but Simmons has appeared sparingly for Iowa through two years on campus. He seemed to be in line to get some run at center this season if Blythe was injured or forced to cover another position.... but when Blythe was shifted over to guard, Tommy Gaul got the nod over Simmons. That isn't the most ringing endorsement of Simmons, but with all of the uncertainty swirling around the Iowa offensive line this year, there's certainly a chance that he's one of Iowa's five best linemen. He's an interior lineman through and through, so he's likely to slot in at whichever one of guard or center Blythe isn't covering.</p> <p><b>12. Henry Krieger-Coble, TE.</b> Krieger-Coble didn't have a lot of receptions in 2014, but he made the most of the ones he did have -- two of his three catches this season went for touchdowns. HKC has seen limited time at tight end through three seasons at Iowa; he had to bide his time behind C.J. Fiedorowicz, Ray Hamilton, and Jake Duzey. But all of those guys except Duzey are gone now and while Duzey figures to slide into the TE1 role in the Iowa offense in 2015, the TE2 job seems earmarked for Krieger-Coble. That was a more valuable position in the pre-Greg Davis offense, but HKC still seems in line to see his production go way up in 2015.</p> <p><b>13. Ryan Ward/<a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Mitch Keppy</a>, OL. </b> Ward's development has definitely not gone as planned. A year ago we had Ward pegged as the Next Great Iowa Offensive Lineman, assuming he would win a starting guard spot in 2014 and use that as a springboard to a starting tackle gig in 2015, like so many previous NGIOL before him. A funny thing happened on the way to NGIOL status, though... Ward didn't win one of the starting guard spots. He didn't even become a key back-up, in line to step in at guard through injury (which didn't happen) or poor performance (which did happen). Ward primarily saw action as a pseudo-tight end when Iowa used jumbo sets near the goal line. That's... not exactly the proscribed path to a starting gig. Given the uncertainty along the offensive line this offseason, Ward should have another chance to prove himself and win a spot, but it's hard to have much confidence in him taking that spot given his struggles this year. Keppy is another guy who's appeared sporadically on depth charts for Iowa, so he could factor into the fight for a starting role next season. The fact that he and Ward seem to be essentially behind at least four guys (Croston, Boettger, Walsh, and Welsh) suggests it's going to be a pretty tall hill for them to climb.</p> <p><b>14. <a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Adam Cox</a>/<a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Macon Plewa</a>, FB. </b>Cox ended up being maybe Iowa's only significant injury of the season; a knee injury knocked him out for the season at the end of training camp, which opened the door for Plewa to step in as Iowa's lead blocker (at least until he suffered some minor injuries that kept him out of action). Plewa was solid, but Cox was just a little bit better than him at everything -- run-blocking, blitz pick-up, pass-catching -- so we'd assume that Cox will regain the FB1 role when he's fully recovered. Since Iowa is one of the few teams that actually still uses fullbacks on a consistent basis, it's very important to have a good one back there to help open holes for the running backs. Given the uncertainty looming at OL next year, having a very good FB could be even more crucial.</p> <p><b>15. <a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Jacob Hillyer</a>, WR.</b> Yes, he's really due back next year. You could be forgiven for forgetting about him, though, since Hillyer recorded zero catches after Iowa's 11/1 hamblasting of Northwestern. In fact, finishing seasons strong has been a bit of a problem for Hillyer at Iowa. In 2013, Hillyer opened the season with at least one catch in Iowa's first five games; he had just five catches in Iowa's remaining seven games, including four games with zero catches. In 2014, Hillyer had at least one catch in Iowa's first eight games before vanishing in November. Granted, we're not talking about a ton of catches pre-disappearance -- over the last two years, Hillyer has racked up a total of 21 receptions for 232 yards and 3 TD -- so his absences did not have a significant impact on the Iowa offense. Hillyer has been listed behind KMM on the depth chart for a while, so one presumes that he'll get an opportunity to try and fill that void this offseason. Based on his track record over the last two years, though, it seems safer to assume that he'll once again assume a bit part role in the offense.</p> <p><b>16. Derrick Mitchell/Andre Harris/Jay Scheel, WR.</b> As noted above, Iowa loses quite a bit of wide receiver production between KMM and Damond Powell (about 60 receptions, 820 yards, and five touchdowns) and if VandeBerg is positioned to replace KMM, then Mitchell, Harris, and Scheel look like the most plausible replacements for Powell (unless <a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Derrick Willies</a> does indeed return). The good news is they all seem to be speedy, explosive talents with the potential to add some much-needed juice to Iowa's offense. The bad news is they've got a grand total of zero catches between them and Scheel is still recovering from a knee injury. We certainly hope one of these guys breaks out and becomes a key performer in 2015... but right now that's all speculation.</p> <p><b>17. <a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">George Kittle</a>, TE.</b> Kittle went from five receptions in 2013 to just one reception in 2014 and he seems to be well behind both Duzey and Krieger-Coble. Kittle is just a sophomore, though, so his day might come in 2016, after Duzey and HKC have departed. In the meantime, unless Iowa decides to make the 3TE sets a bigger part of the offense, Kittle's likely on the outside looking in when it comes to TE playing time.</p> <h4>Three Signs of Hope</h4> <p><b>A Real Running Back Emerges. </b> Let me be clear: I like Mark Weisman. I like him a lot. He seems like a great guy, a great teammate, and he's obviously a good story: the guy who couldn't get a scholarship out of high school and then became a fan favorite after transferring to Iowa. I liked watching Mark Weisman bowl over any defensive back naive enough to try and arm tackle him. I liked watching Mark Weisman score touchdowns. But Mark Weisman was not a running back. He was a fullback masquerading as a running back. He often did it very well, but the fact that he was really, truly, unabashedly a fullback should not be forgotten or ignored. And no offense intended to Mark Weisman -- because, again, I really like him and often enjoyed watching him play -- but a fullback should not have been Iowa's main running back for the last three seasons. The Iowa offense operates with enough restrictor plates as it is -- basing the offense around a fullback is only compounding the problem. 2014 only underlined the issue since it was the Year of the Running Back in the Big Ten -- Melvin Gordon, <a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Tevin Coleman</a>, David Cobb, Ameer Abdullah, Jeremy Langford... and on and on and on. I don't think Iowa had anyone as good as that on their roster that was being blocked by Weisman; nor do I think Iowa will have anyone on their roster as good as Weisman next year. But I am curious and, frankly, excited to see what the offense looks like with a genuine running back again, whether that ends up being Canzeri, Daniels, Wadley, or someone else entirely.</p> <p><b>Tevaunted.</b> Tevaun Smith is the best receiver Iowa has had since Marvin McNutt and while I don't expect him to hit McNutt's stellar numbers from his last two seasons at Iowa (861 yards, 8 TD in 2010 and 1315 yards, 12 TD in 2011), I think he's very capable of at least putting up 600-700 receiving yards and a half-dozen touchdowns. We covered this above, but it deserves repeating: good things happen to the Iowa offense when Tevaun Smith gets the ball (and often even when the offense just <i>tries</i> to get him the ball). It needs to happen more often in 2015. Get him the damn ball. Unleash the Canadian Missile on the rest of the Big Ten.</p> <p><b>Flashes in the Pan. </b> There are a lot of guys on the Iowa roster who have flashed <i>something</i> -- they had a big run or a big catch and run or a big sack or a key pass break-up -- but haven't been able to do make an impact on a consistent basis, either because of a lack of opportunities, injuries, or inconsistent play. It's not out of the question to think that some of those guys -- Parker, Wadley, Hillyer, Krieger-Coble, Welsh -- could finally put it together in 2015. Getting more consistent production out of guys like that would certainly help Iowa improve its offensive performance next season.</p> <h4>Three Reasons for Panic</h4> <p><b>Greg Davis III: The Search for <strike>Spock</strike> a Spark. </b>This is what <a target="_blank" href="" style="background-color: #ffffff;">we said in this space</a> a year ago:</p> <blockquote> <p><b>Greg Davis, Gainfully Employed Offensive Coordinator. </b>The counterpoint was evident against Michigan State, Wisconsin, LSU, Northwestern and the first half of Michigan: Iowa's offense remains far too conservative against good defenses, where the Hawkeyes' standard collection of slow-developing runs and screen passes were largely ineffective. Athletic, experienced defenses had no problem shutting this offense down, and Iowa's response was to keep doing the same thing and expecting different results. The Hawkeyes found something new against Ohio State that apparently worked, but we never saw that same dynamic offense again. There is room for an effective and efficient offense that doesn't sacrifice Ferentz's pro-style principles; Alabama, Stanford, UCLA, and a handful of other teams show that it is possible. For whatever reason, Iowa doesn't seem that interested in doing such things, which puts undue pressure on the defense to perform. Davis has parameters set by the head coach, but those parameters should still allow for more than constant lethargy. Try again, Greg.</p> </blockquote> <p>You can change around the names a bit, but I'm not sure much has fundamentally changed on this point. There were some bright moments for the Iowa offense under Greg Davis this season, but it remains true that offense tends to look best when it's at its KOK-iest, which is not necessarily a good thing, unless Greg Davis is willing to fully embrace his inner KOK in the offensive playcalling in 2015. We've had a lot to say about Greg Davis over the past few years and we'll surely have a lot more to say about over the next few weeks and months; suffice to say, there's a reason (or a lot of reasons) why he's listed in the Panic category and not the Hope category.</p> <p><span><b>¯\_(ツ)_/¯</b></span> Remember that blurb about the possibility for terror and excitement among the new faces that will be asked to step up for Iowa next year? Well, the excitement portion of that primarily applies to running backs and wide receivers. The terror portion is definitely reserved for the offensive line because at this point the offensive line depth chart looks like Austin Blythe and four shrug emojis. As we've said ad nauseum over the years (because true is true and cliches become cliches for a reason), the best Iowa teams are almost always built from the inside out and based around strong lines. A strong offensive line almost always comes from experience and continuity. What are two things the Iowa offensive line isn't going to have in 2015? Experience and continuity. It's very likely that Iowa is starting two very green tackles next year and the guys that should have become the lynchpins at guard (if not following the guard-to-tackle career path blazed by so many standout Iowa linemen before them) have been mired in inconsistency for two years. Hello, night terrors. Brian and Kirk Ferentz are going to have their work cut out for them when it comes to assembling an effective offensive line next year.</p> <p><b>Play it Again, Jake. </b>We're heading for Year 3 of The Jake Rudock Experience and, as noted above, it's a ride that a lot of people would like to get off and there are a lot of reasons to think that Year 3 isn't going to be any better -- and might even be worse -- than what we've seen so far. There is good Jake, there is bad Jake, and there is ho-hum Jake. The only Jake that Iowa can with is good Jake and that Jake has so far shown up only infrequently. If we again see good Jake only infrequently, go ahead and pencil in Iowa for another underwhelming season.</p> <h4>Three Things That Could Change Everything</h4> <p><b>A New Voice.</b> Ferentz tends to treat assistant coaching gigs like Supreme Court appointments most of the time, so this might be more wishful thinking than anything, but... Kirk Ferentz <i>could</i> decide to part ways with Greg Davis this offseason and hire another offensive coordinator. The Iowa offense doesn't <i>have</i> to stay GERG'd. (Really, it doesn't. I swear.) Three years ought to be a sufficient sample size to determine if Davis can work here -- he's brought in the receivers he wanted, he brought in his own preferred wide receiver coach, he's had three years to drill everyone in the ins and outs of his offensive schemes, and the only people left with any meaningful institutional knowledge of the KOK Era have the last name "Ferentz." And the results -- such as they are -- speak for themselves. And while I doubt Ferentz cares about this sort of thing at all, replacing Davis would likely help calm at least some of the discontent in the fanbase and buy him a little more goodwill. Will it happen? The safest bet is almost certainly "no." But still: it <i>could</i> happen.</p> <p><b>Gone Baby Gone. </b>No one has transferred away from the Iowa program yet in the aftermath of a dreary, disappointing season. Someone will. Probably a few someones. This is neither bad nor surprising; people transfer away from Iowa -- and every other program -- <i>every</i> offseason. Some attrition is to be expected. How meaningful that attrition ends up being will likely depend on the quality and quantity of the individuals who leave. Is Iowa losing a fourth-string linebacker or fifth-string receiver? Or are they losing a back-up quarterback or potential rotation piece on the defensive line? The impact from transfers could be minimal... or it could be a very, very significant blow to a program that already seems somewhat thin on talent.</p> <p><b>...Outta Nowhere.</b> The buzzword for Iowa entering 2014 was experience -- Iowa returned starters virtually across the board, especially on offense. Alas, that experience didn't lead to the improved results that we were hoping to see. (It didn't even lead to maintenance of the previous results, sadly.) In college, having experience one year usually means having much less a year later and that looks to be true for Iowa in 2015: they're going to have a lot of new faces along the offensive line and some key new faces in the running game and among the receiving corps, as well. That can be scary (see below!), but it can also be exciting. There very well might be a guy or two out there that's been languishing on the bench or under a redshirt that's primed to bust out with increased opportunities in 2015. It will be fun to see who that might be.</p> <h4>Dartboard Guess</h4> <p>More of the same -- or worse. Greg Davis is back and the offense continues to struggle when it comes to meshing Ferentz's zone blocking run game with Davis' short passing game. Jake Rudock is back and continues to struggle with consistency, putting together a few good quarters or halves, but balancing those out with some poor performances. The calvacade of running backs fails to produce a standout performer and Iowa's running attack remains sub-par. No one emerges to help Tevaun Smith at receiver and defenses are able to double-team him out of games. The offensive line never gels into a cohesive unit, giving Rudock no time to make passes and the running game no holes to run through. There are plenty of reasons to be pessimistic about Iowa's offense in 2015, frankly.</p> RossWB 2014-12-17T08:00:03-06:00 2014-12-17T08:00:03-06:00 IT'S NOT PLAGIARISM IF YOU LINK TO IT: IOWA HOOPS HAS A MUST WIN THIS WEEKEND <img alt="" src="" /> <p>It's finals week and the students are studying but soon they'll get back to the important stuff, sports-type things. </p> <p><b>FRAN MCCAFFERY TALKED HOOPS MONDAY. </b>McCaffery offered several tidbits for us Hawkeye fans. First, <a href="" target="_blank">he mentioned</a> that Peter Jok might earn some more playing time. We also learned that Trey Dickerson has a knee problem that kept him out of the Iowa State game. Also, McCaffery mentioned the red-shirt situation with Ellingson.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data- <p>Fran said they're still evaluating Brady Ellingson's situation regarding a redshirt</p> — Scott Dochterman (@ScottDochterman) <a href="">December 16, 2014</a> </blockquote> <p> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </p> <p><b>HERE'S SATURDAY'S GAME NOTES.</b> Iowa and UNI are even at <a target="_blank" href="">(2-2) these last four years</a>. The Panther roster is full of familiar names like Morgan, Lohaus, Bohannon and <a target="_blank" href="">Jesperson</a>. Wait, forget that last one. The game is in Des Moines as part of the Big Four Classic. Iowa State and Drake is the under card.</p> <p><b>THE SPREAD WILL BECOME AVAILABLE FRIDAY.</b> Here's an early guess:</p> <blockquote data- <p>Projected Vegas point spreads for the Big 4 Classic: Drake (+24.5) vs Iowa State UNI (+3.5) vs Iowa <a href="">@kenpomeroy</a> has UNI/Iowa as a toss up</p> — Trent Condon (@trentcondon) <a href="">December 15, 2014</a> </blockquote> <p> <script charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script> </p> <p><b>HEY LADIES.</b> Lisa Bluder's squad remains in the AP Top 25 this week. <a style="background-color: #ffffff;" target="_blank" href="">Iowa is ranked #23</a>.</p> <p><b>BRANDON SCHERFF IS AN AP ALL-AMERICAN. </b>That's a no-brainer, right? I mean, what silly <a href="" target="_blank">media outlet </a>would leave the Outland Trophy winner off their all-American list (cough ESPN)?</p> <p><b>FOOTBALL RECRUITING IS HEATING UP</b>. Perhaps, for teams not named "Iowa." There's still plenty of time until recruits sign on the dotted line. Blah, blah, blah, I just really wanted a reason to post this graph.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data- <p>Interesting chart from <a href="">@bradygries</a> showing how the <a href="">#Hawkeyes</a> win total compares to recruiting rankings 3 years prior <a href="">pic.twitter.com/Pxz2K0Enrn</a></p> — Blair Sanderson (@BlairRIVALS) <a href="">December 12, 2014</a> </blockquote> <p> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </p> <p><b>OTHER LINKS:</b></p> <ul> <li> <span>Hawkeyes in the NFL: </span><a target="_blank" href="">Week 15 Recap</a> </li> <li>Jess Settles on Iowa and Michigan's<a target="_blank" href=""> recent struggles</a> </li> <li>Competitive practices could alter Hawkeye <a target="_blank" href="">bowl lineup</a> </li> <li>3 Takeaways: Slumping<a target="_blank" href=""> before and after halftime</a> </li> <li>TaxSlayer Bowl <a target="_blank" href="">Practice Pics</a> </li> <li> Iowa falls into old habits <a target="_blank" href="">against Cyclones</a> </li> <li>Seat upgrades nets minor NCAA<a target="_blank" href=""> violation at Iowa</a> </li> <li>Texans add QB Ricky Stanzi to the<a target="_blank" href=""> practice squad</a> </li> <li>Vols coaches see <a target="_blank" href="">Vandy in Iowa</a> </li> <li>1982 Vols recall 'great, <a target="_blank" href="">big, corn-fed' bowl foe</a> </li> <li>Hawkeye bowl ticket sales have <a href="" target="_blank">been slow</a> </li> <li>Hawkeye 2-Star Podcast talks <a href="" target="_blank">Iowa Hoops and B1G Football</a> coaching changes</li> <li>Podcast: 'On Iowa' <a href="" target="_blank">talks Cyclone beatdown, Brandon Scherff</a> </li> </ul> PlannedSickDays 2014-12-16T16:30:06-06:00 2014-12-16T16:30:06-06:00 BHGP BOWL PICK 'EM (AND COLLEGE PICK 'EM FINAL STANDINGS) <img alt="" src="" /> <p>Picks, picks, and more picks.</p> <p>The regular season is done, but there are still some college football games to pick and pick them we shall.</p> <p>The BHGP Bowl Pick 'Em is <a href="" target="_blank">set up over at Yahoo</a>.</p> <p><b>GROUP NAME: </b>BHGP Bowl Pick 'Em 2014<br><b>GROUP ID#: </b>15895<br><b>PASSWORD: </b>hawkeye</p> <p>There are no spreads with the picks (that wasn't an option, unfortunately), but the game <b>does</b><i style="font-weight: bold;"> </i>utilize <b>CONFIDENCE POINTS</b>, so make sure to factor that in accordingly when making your picks. In other words, if you really think Alabama is going to smoke Ohio State, be sure to put 30+ points on the Tide. If you have no idea who to pick between, say, Toledo and Arkansas State, you probably want to put very few confidence points on that one. And so on.</p> <p>The bowl games begin <b>THIS SATURDAY</b> with five (!) games, so be sure to get your picks in. You can still alter picks (and confidence point values) for games that have not yet been played even after the bowl season begins.</p> <p>I don't believe there's a limit on the number of people who can join the group, but if the group does fill up, please post a note in the comments here or contact me via Twitter (@RossWB) or email (bhgp.rosswb-at-gmail.com) and I'll set up another group.</p> <p>As far as prizes... TBD.</p> <p>Join the bowl-picking fun!</p> <p>* * *</p> <p>Meanwhile, I should also provide a (very) belated update on the regular season College Football Pick 'Em contest, which concluded a few weeks ago. Thanks to everyone who participated in the contest this season. As far as the overall winner... well, there wasn't just one winner. We had a tie. Congrats to <b>Genghis518</b> and <b>Hawkeyezfan</b>, who each got 177 picks correct over the course of the season. Well done! To claim your fabulous prize, send me an email (see above) and we'll sort out the details.</p> <p>We almost had an even bigger logjam at the top of the standings, though -- two other entries (<b>Good News or Money</b> and <b>Scherff Wax America</b>) finished just a point back, with 176 correct picks. The final top 50 (and ties) are listed below and you can <a href="" target="_blank">see the full standings here</a>.</p> <p> <img alt="BHGP 2014 Pick Em - FINAL STANDINGS" src=""> </p> <p>And finally, just a shoutout to the pickers who earned top honors each week...</p> <p><b>Week 10:</b> 14 correct picks -- GoHawksQBs<br><b>Week 11:</b> 16 correct picks -- Western Washington Hawkeye<br><b>Week 12: </b>13 correct picks -- lizsicle<br><b>Week 13: </b>19 correct picks -- Q & A with Quinton Alston<br><b>Week 14: </b>15 correct picks -- Revenge of the Nerd and Genghis518<br><b>Week 15: </b>7 correct picks -- Beck, ReisnaPowaPicks, BullockFamilyWinery, I Shot the Scherff</p> <p>Thanks again to everyone who participated.</p> RossWB 2014-12-16T12:02:20-06:00 2014-12-16T12:02:20-06:00 THE EPILOGUE 2014: ONE PLAY MORE <img alt="" src="" /> <p>Hugh Jackman should sing a song about it.</p> <p>Kirk Ferentz and close games. It’s been discussed so many times, but here we are again. With a chance to win the West, Iowa closed out the season with a 2-point loss and a 3-point overtime loss. Add in a 3-point loss to Iowa State and a 7-point loss to Maryland, and the close loss thing is a thing again.</p> <p>In the wake of the 4-team playoff being announced, I was listening to someone on sports radio talking about style points and Florida State and some old coaching mantra about just being one play better than the other team. The guy’s point was about coaches and players just wanting to win, whether it be by 40 points or just one point, and that it just take one more play to go your way to win by one. Anyway…</p> <p>As easy and cathartic as it can be to blame Kirk Ferentz and Greg Davis and all the other coaches, the Hawkeyes were really just that one play away from having a good year, even a great year. One play in 4 of Iowa’s 5 losses would have made all the difference.</p> <p>In some games it is easier than others to pick out that one play.</p> <p>Maryland -- What if Jake Duzey hadn’t fumbled around midfield at the beginning of the second quarter and all the momentum shifted in the Terps' direction?</p> <p>Wisconsin -- There were countless plays to choose from… what if Melvin Gordon’s fumble hadn't bounced back to the Badgers? What if that 3rd-and-13 play hadn't gone for 35 yards? What if Stave hadn't been able to get a first down with his feet on that 3rd-and-8 play?</p> <p>Nebraska -- Even with four first half turnovers, Iowa still had the lead and had a shot to put the game out of reach. Unfortunately, Jake Rudock’s pass to a completely wide open Damond Powell was also out of reach, and Nebraska was able to claw its way back.</p> <p>Iowa State - It was just a couple of critical defensive penalties that gave this game away. A personal foul by Jordan Lomax sparked the Cyclones' go-ahead TD drive in the 4th quarter. Then, after Iowa tied the game back up, a holding penalty on a 3rd-and-6 play and an offside call on a 3rd-and-9 play on the final drive helped ISU get into field goal range.</p> <p>Well, that was fun...</p> <p>So, a few positive notes: in all of Iowa’s close losses (I’m just ignoring the Minnesota game in this post), the Iowa offense made plays late in the 4th quarter that put them in position to win, or at least have a chance to win. Against ISU, there was a late tying FG drive. There was a hectic comeback against Maryland and even a successful onside kick. Against Wisconsin Iowa pulled within two points twice in the fourth quarter. And against Nebraska, after giving up a big lead, Iowa fought back to take the lead with less than two minutes to go. It wasn’t just in losses that the offense showed something in the 4th quarter, either. When UNI had pulled within one point, Iowa responded with a late touchdown drive to seal the game. The Ball State win required two late desperation touchdown drives. And the Pitt win was also secured with a fourth quarter touchdown.</p> <p>Also, while these four losses (and the entire non-conference schedule) was classic Ferentz, the four wins in the B1G that Iowa achieved were often in a pleasant and non-Ferentz fashion. Iowa dominated the three teams that finished below them in the West, plus lowly Indiana. These were all teams that Iowa had a talent advantage over and should have beaten easily. And they did! Shocking.</p> <p>This team, in conference play at least, wasn’t letting inferior teams hang around. It wan’t just building a lead and hanging on for dear life. It was going out, putting points on the board, and smothering bad offenses. And I can’t remember an Iowa team doing that ever. Even some of Iowa’s best teams struggled to put away the bottom dwellers of the B1G. In 2009, it took a crazy fourth quarter to beat Indiana and there was that awful Northwestern game. :( In 2004, Iowa beat a very mediocre Purdue by just two points and barely survived against Minnesota, who went 6-5, as the Gophers missed a potential game-winning field goal. 2002 is probably the only other year that Iowa really dominated the bad teams, but that year also had the famous Purdue victory (though Purdue also wasn't <em>that</em> bad back then).</p> <p>I’m not even sure where I’m going with all of this. It’s mostly back to frustration. There were enough good things that Iowa showed at times this year that those four close losses seem even more painful. So where can that one play more come from? Is it better coaching? Just better execution? One player just wanting it a little more and stepping up?</p> <p>Or maybe <a href="">that's football</a>.</p> fightforiowa 2014-12-16T10:00:03-06:00 2014-12-16T10:00:03-06:00 BRANDS VS BRANDS: THE SWIM-OFF <img alt="" src="" /> <p>Two men enter the pool, one man leaves... a few seconds faster than the other one. </p> <p>Friday night actually featured two Iowa-Iowa State showdowns: one in basketball and one in swimming. How do you gin up interest in a swimming dual at Iowa? You bring in two guys who know a lot about drawing crowds to dual meets at Iowa: Tom and Terry Brands. The Brands brothers participated in a 50-meter freestyle swimming race at the Campus Recreation and Wellness Center ahead of the Iowa-Iowa State swimming dual on Friday night. Iowa Corn agreed to donate $250 to a charity chosen by the winner.</p> <blockquote lang="en" class="twitter-tweet"> <p>THE OUTFITS for the Big Swim-off tomorrow... Terry's outfit on the left; Tom's outfit on the right! <a href="">@IowaHawkeyeSwim</a> <a href="">pic.twitter.com/prIreb4HCE</a></p> — Hawkeye Wrestling (@Hawks_Wrestling) <a href="">December 11, 2014</a> </blockquote> <p> <script charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script> </p> <p>SPOILER ALERT: That's not what they wore. Although it would have been much funnier if they had.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"> <p>.<a href="">@Hawks_Wrestling</a> Terry Brands adjusts goggles before Brands vs Brands 50 freestyle <a href="">#Hawkeyes</a> <a href="">@gazettedotcom</a> <a href="">@KCRG</a> <a href="">pic.twitter.com/fQx0rZfRAi</a></p> — Stephen Mally (@stephenmally) <a href="">December 13, 2014</a> </blockquote> <p> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </p> <p>"Ze goggles, zey do nothing... to help me swim faster!"</p> <p>So who won? Tom Brands <a href="" target="_blank">bested his brother</a>, 35.52 seconds to 37.72 seconds. You can find the full race below (with bonus Dan Gable appearance):</p> <p><iframe frameborder="0" src="//" height="315" width="560"></iframe></p> <p>Warner Bros. already tabbed Jason Momoa to play Aquaman in an upcoming movie, but maybe they want to reconsider:</p> <blockquote lang="en" class="twitter-tweet"> <p>Your Brands vs Brands 50 freestyle winner with a time of 35.52 <a href="">@Hawks_Wrestling</a> Tom Brands <a href="">#Hawkeyes</a> <a href="">@gazettedotcom</a> <a href="">pic.twitter.com/YyEZa53ptN</a></p> — Stephen Mally (@stephenmally) <a href="">December 13, 2014</a> </blockquote> <p> <script charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script> </p> <p>Evil's got no chance when Tom Brands puts it in an underwater headlock.</p> <p><i>Ed. Note: I've been slacking on real wrestling coverage, I realize. Mea culpa. More coming soon! </i></p> RossWB 2014-12-16T08:16:27-06:00 2014-12-16T08:16:27-06:00 BTN NAMES IOWA FOOTBALL'S MOUNT RUSHMORE <img alt="" src="" /> <p>Break out the chisels!</p> <p>We were a little busy dealing with the Iowa State hoops debacle on Friday, but that's when BTN's Mount Rushmore project hit Iowa and they revealed the picks for the four former Iowa football players that would grace a Hawkeye-centric Mount Rushmore. In case you've forgotten the nominees, here they are:</p> <p> <img alt="Iowa Mt Rushmore nominees" src=""> </p> <p>BHGP also <a target="_blank" href="">wrote about each of the ten nominees</a> for this project, as part of our collaboration with BTN. We had no input on the final selections, though. The final selections were determined by an online fan vote. And the selections were...</p> <p> <img alt="Iowa Mt Rushmore" src=""> </p> <p>From left to right, that's Nile Kinnick, Tim Dwight, Alex Karras, and Chuck Long.</p> <p>The only surprise there is Tim Dwight. Kinnick was a complete no-brainer: he's the most beloved figure in Iowa football history, an iconic figure whose name adorns the stadium and who won Iowa's only Heisman Trophy. Alex Karras is a former Outland Trophy-winner and one of Iowa's greatest linemen. (Also: <a target="_blank" href="">Mongo</a>.) Chuck Long is arguably the greatest quarterback in Iowa history and came within a whisker of winning the Heisman Trophy.</p> <p>In that frame of reference, Dwight's inclusion seems a little bit odd. He was a two-time All-<a class="sbn-auto-link" href="">American</a> and one of the greatest return men that Iowa (or the Big Ten) has ever seen, but his list of accomplishments doesn't quite measure up to the other names on the list. (Or some of the guys who didn't make the cut, like Cal Jones, Larry Station, or Randy Duncan.) But I'm not going to quibble too much: Dwight was one of my favorite Hawkeyes ever to watch and he produced <a target="_blank" href="">some breathtaking highlights</a>. His inclusion also makes the project seem representative of the different "eras" of Iowa football: the 30s (Kinnick), the 50s (Karras), the 80s (Long), and the 90s (Dwight), which seems kind of fitting. (Although, arguably, it would make more sense to recognize the 2000s than the 90s -- or even the 20s -- if you truly wanted to represent the best eras of Iowa football.)</p> <p>In the end, an online fan vote for a project like this is always going to skew a bit younger and toward more recent players, too. And, really, there's no unquestionably right answer to the question of who would feature on a Mount Rushmore of Hawkeye football. You can make spirited (and justified) arguments for just about any combination of four guys from <a href="" target="_blank">BTN's nominee list</a> (so long as they all feature Kinnick, at least), as well as a few guys who weren't on BTN's official nominee list.</p> <p>You can watch BTN's segment on the Iowa Mount Rushmore below (or at <a target="_blank" href="">this link</a>):</p> <p> </p> <blockquote lang="en" class="twitter-tweet"> <p>The <a href="">@BTNLive</a> Mt. Rushmore for Iowa football is out. Did the fans vote for the right 4? <a href=""></a></p> — Iowa on BTN (@BTN_Iowa) <a href="">December 13, 2014</a> </blockquote> <p> <script charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script> </p> RossWB 2014-12-15T14:00:03-06:00 2014-12-15T14:00:03-06:00 THE EPILOGUE 2014: SPECIAL TEAMS <img alt="" src="" /> <p>Q. Did Iowa's special teams units perform well or poorly in 2014? A. Yes.</p> <p>Expectations of a possible championship year for Iowa football in 2014 seemed to hinge on visions of a powerful offense infused with new speed,and a stout defense, especially up front (plus a schedule conducive to delusions of starting 10-0). But the Iowa special teams broke in a lot of new faces after graduating four-year placekicker <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="">Mike Meyer</a>, and simply not employing 2013 punter <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="">Connor Kornbrath</a> or 2013 primary punt returner <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="">Kevonte Martin-Manley</a> in anything resembling their former capacities. We know the general story: 7-5 against <i>that</i> schedule. But how did the newcomer-laden special teams perform?</p> <p><b>Kickoff Unit</b></p> <p>To start with probably the brightest spot among Iowa's specialty units, the kickoff team played at a nationally elite level. No joke. Iowa's opponents averaged only 15.6 yards per return, with a long return for the year of a very pedestrian 26 yards. Iowa's average return allowed ranked 4th in FBS (1st in the B1G), so kickoff coverage was stellar for Iowa this year.</p> <p>That's assuming it even had to do anything, as <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="">Marshall Koehn</a> booted 42 touchbacks on 63 kickoffs. After performing a reasonable amount of research, I could not find any compilations of touchback statistics for the 2014 season, but that seems outrageously good as well. For some comparison, opposing kickers booted touchbacks against Iowa at half the rate Koehn did (20 on 60 kickoffs). So in a season that has been short on praise for the team or even portions of it larger than <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="">Brandon Scherff</a>, kudos to the kickoff team for quietly dominating this year.</p> <p><b>Placekickers</b></p> <p>Things weren't all sunshine and rainbows for Koehn in his capacity as Iowa's field goal kicker. He started the year 2-for-5, with misses from 37, 37, and 35 yards, and was benched momentarily in favor of <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="">Mick Ellis</a> in the Ball State game. Koehn's accuracy was so shaky early in the season that he and Ellis were still sharing duties heading into the Iowa State game (in spite of Ellis noobing a 29-yarder in his only attempt against Ball State). Koehn won the job for good, though, when he ran on during a confused scramble against ISU and nailed a 44-yarder to knot that game at 17 with 4:08 to go. Iowa went on to beat ISU in overtime [not true], and Koehn only missed one more field goal on the season, a 46-yarder on a very windy day at Illinois [true!].</p> <p>Koehn and Ellis combined to be 12-of-17 on the year, good for 72nd nationally percentage-wise. Although perhaps slightly misleading, given how Koehn righted the ship, that ranking is about on par with the impact Iowa's placekickers had. The early struggles only nearly sank Iowa against Ball State, and did not actually do so. Iowa missed exactly zero field goals in games it lost. Koehn's biggest field goal seems to have been his longest: a 52-yarder at Pitt, without which Iowa would have been protecting a 1-point lead on Pitt's final drive, rather than the still-uncomfortable-but-not-nearly-as-much-so 4-point lead that it had. All said, the placekicking turned out surprisingly solid, but was not a huge difference-maker—possibly due to the Ball Coach-in-Chief attempting fourth-down conversions at a seemingly much greater rate than he has before.</p> <p><b>Kickoff Return Unit</b></p> <p>This was another solid, but not difference-making area for Iowa. As a team, the Hawkeyes ranked 43rd nationally (5th in the B1G) in kickoff returns, at 22.0 yards per. <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="">Riley McCarron</a> wins the Outlier.com Small Sample Size of the Year Award, by leading the team at 36.0 yards per return on 1 return, with a long of 36. Congratulations, Riley! Second on the team in kickoff return average was...<a class="sbn-auto-link" href="">Mark Weisman</a>, who averaged 29.0 yards on three returns, mostly thanks to a 50-yard runback of UNI's season-opening boot, which feels like it happened about a decade ago. The actual leading contributor on kickoff returns for Iowa was freshman <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="">Jonathan Parker</a>, who logged 475 yards on 20 returns, good for 23.8 yards per, with a long of 54. Parker also figures to be Iowa's leading contributor in this area going forward into 2015, although the Hawkeyes have very little continuity in returners, even when leaders are returning (see Punt Return Unit below), so who really knows about next year?</p> <p><b>Blocking Kicks</b></p> <p>This isn't really a unit, but it's the last positive (mostly) I have to talk about, so I would like to address it before telling you just how bad Iowa is at both sides of the punting game.</p> <p>Earlier in the season, a certain prescient minor (understatement) contributor to this finest of blogs suggested--without proposing any sort of method for doing so--<a href="" target="_blank">that Iowa resume trying to block kicks like it did in the early Ferentzian glory days</a>. A few days later, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="">Ben Niemann</a>, a twelfth-string (or so) linebacker (?) blocked a punt, scooped it, and scored a touchdown that opened up the Hawkeyes' slaughter of Northwestern. Later, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="">Carl Davis</a> broke through and totally stuffed a Nebraska field goal attempt, which probably could have been scooped and scored by at least one player on each team, but it was a Big Ten game, which ensured maximum politeness and confusion, with minimal assertiveness (nobody scored). Iowa's two blocks tied it for 40th in the nation, so kudos to Niemann and Big Carl for breaking through and making plays there. Iowa did have one punt blocked, but it happened in the Minnesota game where Iowa had much bigger struggles, and it netted +14 yards, which is not totally disastrous in comparison to Iowa's punting game in general (see below), so I'm not going to dwell on it.</p> <p><b>Punting Unit</b></p> <p>I get that "punting is winning" is mostly just a joke, and that it really gets funnier the worse Iowa actually is at punting, but seriously...punting, for Iowa, is NOT winning. In 2014, Iowa <i>ranked 114th nationally and 12th in the B1G</i> in net punting average, at 33.7 net yards per punt. Iowa's punt return defense <i>ranked 121st nationally</i> and <i>14th in the B1G </i>[dead last!], giving up 15.4 yards per return. Nebraska's De'Mornay Pierson-El was primarily responsible for the horribawfulness of Iowa's punt return average allowed, notching 134 yards on three returns, including an 80-yard touchdown. Omitting Pierson-El's returns, Iowa still allowed 7.4 yards per return (81 yards on 11), which would be 64th nationally, so punt coverage was not really a plus for Iowa heading into the Nebraska game, either.</p> <p>It may not be a surprise that Iowa's net punting average is so poor, given the similarly poor ranking of Iowa's punt coverage, but Iowa's gross punting average of 38.4 ranked an also-not-sterling (trying to be polite) 113th nationally. So the punting itself was not winning. The punt coverage was not winning. Altogether this unit was poor statistically, and the most melt-down-y unit during the Nebraska meltdown. Yikes.</p> <p><b>Punt Return Unit</b></p> <p>Like Weisman and McCarron on kickoff returns, Ben Niemann (17 yard "return" of the block vs. jNW) and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="">Drew Ott</a> (12 yard "return" of Nebraska's ButtPunt(TM)) led Iowa in punt return average. Including those two plays, Iowa ranked 105th nationally (14th in the B1G...again) in punt return average, at 5.2 yards per return. Outside of those two plays, Iowa netted 89 yards on 21 returns (4.2 per) for the season. Nebraska's Pierson-El exceeded that yardage total in the fourth quarter on Black Friday.</p> <p>Matt Vandeberg led the "traditional" punt returners on the squad at 7.0 yards per return (77 yards on 11 returns) with a long of 23, so he at least did <i>something</i>. McCarron, by comparison, averaged 1.6 yards on the eight occasions he fielded the ball and attempted to advance it. Iowa needs playmakers in so many areas right now, it may be silly to single this one out, but one thing that puzzles about the punt returning lineup is that Kevonte Martin-Manley led the Hawkeyes in punt returns in 2013 (15.7 yards per, 2 TD), but did not field punts this year. Granted, KMM's 2013 return numbers were boosted by (or mostly consisted of) one monster game against a terrible Western Michigan team, and he did muff a punt in the Outback Bowl, but he at least displayed <i>some</i> capability to change a game, and Vandeberg's fumbled return against Nebraska shows that even a (seemingly) low-risk, low-reward option comes with some risk. One must wonder if <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="">Tevaun Smith</a> can field a punt.</p> <p><b>Wrapping Up</b></p> <p>The short of it is: Marshall Koehn is a good kicker. Iowa covered kickoffs as well as anybody in the country, and hey, the Hawks even blocked a couple kicks. But Iowa punted and returned punts way too poorly (worst in the conference) for a team that needs all the field position help it can get in lieu of gaining chunks of yardage on offense or playing top-level shutdown defense.</p> Hayden's_Aviators 2014-12-15T12:00:02-06:00 2014-12-15T12:00:02-06:00 FRANALYSIS: BAD START TO SECOND HALF DOOMS IOWA YET AGAIN <img alt="" src="" /> <p>Breaking down the loss to Iowa State, one disappointing jump shot at a time. </p> <p>This season is not last season. This much we know. Trying to compare this year's <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="">Iowa Hawkeyes</a> to last year's Iowa Hawkeyes is literally like comparing apples and oranges; yes, they are both fruit, but, boy, do they sure taste different.</p> <p>If I was going to compare this year's squad to another Iowa team under Fran McCaffery, though, it would probably be the one from two years ago. And, if you think about it, last season was a bit weird. I don't know about you guys, but I entered last season expecting Iowa to struggle from the field (like they had in 2012-2013), but continue to play lockdown defense. I mean, they had only lost <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="">Eric May</a> to graduation and, while he was a good defender, you wouldn't expect to see much of a drop off. Well, we all know how that worked out once February started. So, entering this season, I think a lot of us suffered from the <a target="_blank" href="">recency effect</a> in that we expected Iowa to be a pretty good offensive team and struggle with defense. Of course, that's not how this season has started and, after this Iowa State game, I think we are all a little more confused about just what to make of this year's roster.</p> <p>Again, allow me to direct your attention to the 2012-2013 Iowa Hawkeyes:</p> <p></p> <p>That picture is from the wonderful Kenpom website, which posts relevant statistical categories for every year so that you can compare and contrast past and present teams with ease. Now, if you look at the team from two years ago, the resemblance is pretty striking. It's not perfect, of course; this year's team isn't getting to the free throw line as much and is shooting more threes on offense (related?), while struggling to hit the glass on the defensive side of the ball. But even with those little differences, this year's team has slowed down tempo-wise, to where they were before last season; they have a similar offensive and defensive efficiency; and a big reason why their offense is a problem this season is because they can't shoot the ball worth a damn. In other words, we are looking at a team that will go as far as their defense can carry them right now.</p> <p>Of course, that's no surprise to anybody who has watched this team this season, but I bring it up to try to make sense of Friday's performance. Surely, since Iowa State was red hot from the floor and put up an insane eFG%, Iowa must be a crappy defense. Feel free to insert the sarcasm font there, but that's how some fans are taking this loss. Iowa is crap, burn it all down, etc. Yet one game does not make a season, and despite what happened in the second half of the Texas game, three halves of the other team playing good offensive basketball is still a small sample size.</p> <p>It is with that in mind, that I refresh your memory about the non-conference schedule two years ago when Iowa lost to Wichita State and Virginia Tech. In a similar vein to the Texas game, Iowa was up 35-33 on the Shockers at halftime before being outscored 42-28 and <a href="" target="_blank">losing by 12 points</a>. And in another similar vein -- warning: the following sentence may give you traumatic flashbacks and BHGP is not liable for any and all damages that may occur from you reading it -- this year's loss to Iowa State reminds me all too much of the loss to Virginia Tech in 2012. Iowa State is better than that Virginia Tech team, but that game saw an <a href="" target="_blank">offensive outburst</a> in which the Hokies finished with an eFG% of 59% and averaged 1.27 points per possession (PPP). I don't want to ruin the surprise below, but Iowa State finished with similar numbers, and those offensive numbers for the opposing teams are what caused Iowa to lose those games.</p> <p>I bring those up to remind you that, yes, the losses this year suck, but they are not the end of the world. Iowa went on to finish that year #25 in the nation, according to Kenpom. They didn't make the NCAA tournament, which is a legitimate gripe, but that may be the result of being a defense-reliant team (these teams tend to look worse to our eyes than teams who can score at will) playing in a really tough conference (so many close losses that season). One way in which this season could be different, however, is that Iowa's non-conference schedule is not nearly as weak as that season. So, despite losing to Texas, Syracuse, and Iowa State, if Iowa can beat UNI and the North Carolina win on the road still stands up as a nice victory, then this season shouldn't end in another NIT bid. So I encourage you all to not jump off a cliff yet. There is a lot of season remaining, and one bad game like this doesn't spell complete and utter doom.</p> <p>Here is the breakdown of points scored by ten minute quarters:</p> <p></p> <p>Oof. That second half.</p> <h3>Four Factors in Review</h3> <p></p> <p><b>Points Per Possession: Iowa 0.91, Iowa State 1.05</b></p> <p><b>Possessions: 36</b></p> <p></p> <p><b>Points Per Possession: Iowa 1.11, Iowa State 1.37</b></p> <p><b>Possessions: 38</b></p> <p></p> <p><b>Points Per Possession: Iowa 1.01, Iowa State 1.21</b></p> <p><b>Possessions: 74</b></p> <h4>Shooting</h4> <p>I hate to keep harping on the same point, but let's talk about Iowa's shot selection.</p> <p></p> <p>Here's an updated version of the chart I posted after the Alcorn State game. As you can see, Iowa continues to take the fewest amount of shots near the rim that they have since McCaffery took over as coach. They are actually kind of light on long twos, which is good, but they are still taking more than they did last season. Additionally, they are shooting from distance more than ever, which, in theory, should be worth it, but it hasn't worked out so well for them this season.</p> <p>Overall, though, this team is much more infatuated with jump shots than they should be. I still believe that Iowa has been a bit unlucky from downtown this season, particularly because <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="">Josh Oglesby</a> isn't this bad. However, at some point, unlucky or not, Fran needs to adjust for the fact that they are not shooting the ball well and go for more high percentage shots. They did not do that against Iowa State. They made an early effort to go inside with the ball, but they seemed to get away from it for long stretches as the game rolled on.</p> <p></p> <p>(Per usual, the shot charts are courtesy of <a target="_blank" href="">Shot Analytics</a>)</p> <p>In total, after mining the box score, here is what I came up with:</p> <p></p> <table style="border-collapse: collapse;" align="center" border="0" width="435" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <colgroup> <col style="mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 4608; width: 126pt;" width="126"> <col style="mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3035; width: 83pt;" width="83"> <col style="mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 4608; width: 126pt;" width="126"> <col style="mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3657; width: 100pt;" width="100"> </colgroup> <tbody> <tr style="height: 13.0pt;" height="13"> <td style="text-align: center; height: 13pt; width: 126pt;" class="xl63" height="13" width="126"><b>Iowa Shooting Breakdown</b></td> <td style="width: 83pt;" class="xl64" width="83"><b>2pt FG Near Rim</b></td> <td style="width: 126pt;" class="xl64" width="126"><b>2pt Jump Shot FG</b></td> <td style="width: 100pt;" class="xl63" width="100"><b>3pt FG</b></td> </tr> <tr style="height: 13.0pt;" height="13"> <td style="text-align: center; height: 13pt;" class="xl63" height="13">% of Attempts</td> <td class="xl64">36.6%</td> <td class="xl64">35.2%</td> <td class="xl65">28.2%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 13.0pt;" height="13"> <td style="text-align: center; height: 13pt;" class="xl63" height="13">FG%</td> <td class="xl64">57.7%</td> <td class="xl64">24.0%</td> <td class="xl64">35.0%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p>Honestly, considering the height advantage they had, Iowa should have shot the ball better than 58% from near the rim. That being said, though, taking a third of your shots from the most inefficient place on the court and only making 24% of them is just a terrible strategy (especially with a team that can't shoot very well). And a lot of this is the offensive sets they run. <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="">Mike Gesell</a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="">Peter Jok</a> are habitual offenders, and Iowa specifically runs plays to get guys like <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="">Jarrod Uthoff</a> and Josh Oglesby shots at the elbow all the time. In fact, Shot Analytics has Iowa taking 15% of their field goal attempts from the right elbow this year, which is the highest volume on the court for them. The second most frequent shot attempt for the Hawkeyes has been the left and right wing threes, in which they have taken 11% of their shots a piece from both. I don't necessarily have a problem with someone like Uthoff taking open looks, but running more plays to get guys open looks at the basket (which Iowa did try early on against Iowa State) and from three point range would be a smarter way to run their offense.</p> <p>If you would like a look at a smarter way to run an offense, here you go:</p> <p></p> <p>I count 8 shots that are neither inside the paint or from beyond the arc. Yes, Iowa State has better shooters than Iowa, but they also have a more efficient shot distribution thanks to Fred Hoiberg's <a target="_blank" href="">concerted effort</a> to not waste possessions by taking the least efficient shot on the court. Iowa State essentially maximizes the potential of their shooters, while Iowa minimizes the potential for theirs.</p> <p>Now tell me, which strategy is better?</p> <p><b>Advantage: Iowa State</b></p> <h4>Turnovers</h4> <p>This is one of those categories in which Iowa won the battle in the box score, but I would probably argue they lost it when you take into account which team had the most damaging turnovers. First of all, despite Iowa only turning the ball over 7 times and Iowa State losing the ball 10 times, the Cyclones had 11 points off of turnovers to just 7 for the Hawkeyes. And what was even more embarrassing, was that 5 of Iowa's 7 turnovers ALL GAME and their only 5 of the second half occurred in the first 4:00 of the second half. That is also when Iowa State got all 11 of their points off of turnovers. Two turnovers a piece by <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="">Aaron White</a>, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="">Adam Woodbury</a>, and a final one by Gabe Olaseni led to 3 layups, a three pointer, and 2 free throws for the Cyclones. What was a 5-point game at halftime, suddenly became a 19-point blowout. According to Kenpom's win probability chart for this game, Iowa's odds of winning went from about 40% at halftime to about 5% at the 16:00 mark. That means we can estimate that those five turnovers (and a few other things) dealt approximately a 35% blow to their win probability. That's huge.</p> <p>And it wasn't classified as a turnover, but you could even argue that Mike Gesell getting his shot blocked at the end of the first half was as good as a turnover because it led to an easy <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="">Matt Thomas</a> transition three.</p> <p>In total, we are talking about 14 really easy points by Iowa State that changed the direction of this game. I have a hard time assigning those points to the defense, when it was really the offense that gave away those baskets. If you take away the play before halftime, Iowa State only averaged 0.97 PPP in the first half. If you take away those 14 points, then the defense only allowed 1.03 to one of the best offenses in the nation. So while I would agree that Iowa's defensive effort was fairly poor after the early barrage in the second half, I would argue that the outcome of this game had more to do with poor offense and poor offensive strategy on the part of the Hawkeyes. It's never good when your team looks disparaged after the other team makes a big run, but I still think the defense is fine. It's the offense, yet again, that remains a problem.</p> <p>And, again, Iowa technically won this category, but those 5 turnovers after halftime just absolutely killed them.</p> <p><b>Advantage: Iowa</b></p> <h4>Offensive Rebounding</h4> <p>We are establishing a bit of a pattern here, but I will again say that Iowa technically won this category, but not by nearly as much as they would have liked. First, let's talk Iowa State's 18% offensive rebounding rate. The main reason it didn't matter that Iowa kept Iowa State off the offensive glass, is the fact that the Cyclones finished the game with a 62.5% eFG%. When you shoot the ball that well, grabbing what misses you do have, is not quite as important as it is under normal circumstances.</p> <p>Secondly, even though Iowa won this category, they were still held below their season average of 35.7% by quite a bit. Making it all the worse, is the fact that the Hawkeyes had the height advantage. Iowa's best offensive rebounders in Olaseni, Woodbury, and White all finished with lower offensive rebounding rates than their season average.</p> <p>So yes, Iowa technically won this category, but not by as much as they needed to.</p> <p><b>Advantage: Iowa</b></p> <h4>Free Throw Rate</h4> <p>Both sides came into this game being tops in the country when it came to keeping their opponent off the free throw line, and both sides continued that trend. Though, while both teams finished with 13 free throw attempts, it took Iowa 71 field goal attempts to earn those trips to the line, while it only took Iowa State 64. But, overall, this category didn't really matter a whole lot in this one.</p> <p><b>Advantage: Iowa State</b></p> <h4>Overall: Iowa Won 2 Out of the 4 Factors</h4> <h3>Players</h3> <p></p> <p>Aaron White and Peter Jok were the most efficient scorers with a high volume of scoring attempts for Iowa in this one. Of course, that didn't matter all that much when Iowa State had five players in the top right corner of the chart.</p> <p>Meanwhile, even though the chart above shows us just how efficient a player was on offense, it doesn't give us the whole picture. Therefore, I give you an additional chart this week:</p> <p></p> <p>The chart above plots each player by their minutes played and their game score. I've seen Bill Connelly use game score in his <a target="_blank" href="">game recaps</a>, and I thought it would be informative to use it in mine. <a target="_blank" href="">Game score</a> merely attempts to give each player a number rating to signify how well they played overall, and not just on offense. For reference, a game score of 10, is considered an average performance. That means, yet again, Iowa State is clustered way too far up in the right hand corner.</p> <p>But, sticking with Iowa, Aaron White was the player of the night for the Hawkeyes. He put up a final stat line of 18 points on 6-11 shooting, including going 1-3 from long range and 5-5 from the free throw line.</p> <p></p> <p>Besides scoring near the basket and drawing fouls (the usual for White), he also came away with 6 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 steal. White had the opportunity for more assists, as he made two absolutely beautiful passes to Woodbury in this one, but Iowa's big man couldn't convert on either field goal attempt. Other than those two killer turnovers after halftime, White continued to show why he's the best overall player on this team.</p> <p>Peter Jok came off the bench and had himself a game. 14 points on 5-10 shooting from the floor (2-4 from three) and 2-2 from the free throw line against better competition is no doubt a welcome sight for a guy who Iowa could really use some offense out of. The results were nice, but the method in which he used to score was not exactly the most optimal.</p> <p></p> <p>On one hand, I was very happy with the fact that Jok seemed more determined than usual to put his head down and attack the rim. It paid off in the form of two buckets from up close and with 2 free ones at the line. However, he was also part of the jump shooting problem in this one. Sure, he made a long two, but he also went 1-4 from that efficiency black hole out there. And the one he made was a contested shot that when it first went up I was like "No! Bad shot, bad shot, bad shot!" And then then it went in, and I was all like "Nice shot, Peter." All that being said, it was still a nice game for the young guy. He also tallied 6 rebounds and 3 assists and was rewarded for his offensive output by playing 25 minutes; the most he's played in a game all season.</p> <p>The third best player of the night for Iowa, Mike Gesell, really struggled shooting the ball, but was a catalyst for the offense with the way he set his teammates up all game. The bad, of course, was the 12 field goal attempts (4 of them which he made) to get to 9 points.</p> <p></p> <p>He had some issues early on getting his shot blocked in the lane, but did better with that as the game went on. Unfortunately, after hitting an early three pointer in the first half, his shooting from outside the lane was absolutely off all night. Considering a third of his shot attempts on the season have been long twos, he's another guy I would like to see stop shooting so much from there. Last year he was only taking 27% of his shots from there, so it would be nice if he could go back to that. But anyway, Gesell's 7 assists and 0 turnovers were important for this offense, and he continued to show that he can be a good player. The main problem for him continues to be efficiency due to struggles in the lane and his affinity for long twos.</p> <p>Last but not least, I want to mention Jarrod Uthoff because he had a quiet game by his standards. 9 points, 5 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block, and 1 steal is good for just about anyone, but the Hawkeyes need more out of him against good teams; especially with how this offense is playing right now. And I'm not going to lie, Uthoff was probably my biggest frustration on the night. His 4-10 shooting was largely because he was simply settling for contested jumper after contested jumper.</p> <p></p> <p>With Uthoff's size, I get that he can shoot that mid-range jumper over just about anybody, but he's shooting only 28% from there on the year compared to 71% near the rim and 39% from beyond the arc. With his size and skillset, he should be the epitome of efficiency by taking most of his shots from downtown and near the rim. When he's wide open, he's probably the one person on the team I don't absolutely hate taking a long two, but at the same time, if he's going to take so many of them (including settling for so many contested ones), it's just a waste of offensive potential.</p> <p>Okay, time to finish with some bullet points.</p> <ul> <li><span>Above I mentioned how Iowa's offensive issues are in part the half court offense they run. But, on the other hand, some of this isn't just about the offensive sets that Fran has taught this team to run. Some of this has to do with his philosophy of playing his bench players so much. Peter Jok had a nice game Friday night, but Fran's continued insistence on putting a lineup of something like <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="">Anthony Clemmons</a>, Josh Oglesby, Peter Jok, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="">Dom Uhl</a>, and Gabe Olaseni on the court (even for fairly short periods of time) against good teams is maddening. Again, in theory, that lineup should be pretty good, but Oglesby is in a funk, Olaseni isn't a go-to scorer on the block, Jok and Clemmons are not consistent, and Uhl is way too young and inexperienced. This lineup lacks a consistent scorer (Aaron White and Jarrod Uthoff) and a consistent distributor (Mike Gesell). At this point, there is no reason for Fran not to have at least two starters in the game at all times against good competition. In other words, Fran should be more like Hoiberg and play his best players a lot more than he does. If that means he has to move White back to the three spot for periods of time in order to get Gabe and Woody on the court together, so be it. This team can't afford any more offensive lulls resulting from this type of non-effective lineup.</span></li> <li><span>Iowa's offense is better in transition than when they run their half court sets. This is not a surprise; we can all see it with our eyes on a nightly basis. However, I wanted to know just how bad, so I pulled the data from <a target="_blank" href="">Hoop-Math</a> to check it out. Now, ideally, I would like PPP numbers for transition and non-transition situations, but I don't have that. So, the next best thing is shooting. Now, we all know that most teams shoot better in transition due to getting better looks at the basket, whether that be in the form of easy layups or open threes. And looking at the data, the average Division I team is shooting 7% better in eFG% when in transition this season than when they are not in transition. Iowa, on the other hand, is shooting 14% worse (57% in transition, 43% in non-transition) when they are not out on the break. That's the 303rd worst differential of any team in Division I basketball this season. If there is any bright side to this, it's that Iowa is 28th in the nation in the percentage of field goals attempted in transition. However, that is still only 28% of their overall field goal attempts, which means they are putting up a 43% eFG% on the other 72% of their field goal attempts. Blah. </span></li> <li><span>Iowa has only played about 4 real opponents this season, but I have noticed a trend against them all. Namely, the Hawkeyes tend to start fast, fade going into halftime, and then absolutely fail to show up coming out of the break:</span></li> </ul> <p> <span><br></span></p> <ul> <li><span>There was a somewhat similar trend last year, too:</span></li> </ul> <p> <span><br></span></p> <ul> <li><span>Iowa State was the first opponent to hold the Hawkeyes dunkless in a game this season. The last time Iowa was held without a dunk came on January 28th, 2014 (last season) in a home loss to Michigan State. </span></li> <li><span>Speaking of dunks, the bullet point above means that Aaron White was held to 0 dunks on 6 made field goals. Here is the updated dunk-o-meter for the season:</span></li> </ul> <table style="border-collapse: collapse;" align="center" border="0" width="530" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <colgroup> <col style="mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3766; width: 103pt;" width="103"> <col style="mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3072; width: 84pt;" width="84"> <col style="width: 77pt;" span="2" width="77"> <col style="mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3730; width: 102pt;" width="102"> <col style="mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3181; width: 87pt;" width="87"> </colgroup> <tbody> <tr style="height: 13.0pt;" height="13"> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center; height: 13pt; width: 103pt;" height="13" width="103"><b>Aaron White Dunk-O-Meter</b></td> <td class="xl63" style="width: 84pt;" width="84"><b>Freshman</b></td> <td class="xl63" style="width: 77pt;" width="77"><b>Sophomore</b></td> <td class="xl63" style="width: 77pt;" width="77"><b>Junior </b></td> <td class="xl63" style="width: 102pt;" width="102"><b>Senior</b></td> <td class="xl63" style="width: 87pt;" width="87"><b>Career</b></td> </tr> <tr style="height: 13.0pt;" height="13"> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center; height: 13pt;" height="13">Dunks</td> <td class="xl63">32</td> <td class="xl63">56</td> <td class="xl63">51</td> <td class="xl63">17</td> <td class="xl63">156</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 13.0pt;" height="13"> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center; height: 13pt;" height="13">Field Goals Made</td> <td class="xl63">136</td> <td class="xl63">140</td> <td class="xl63">143</td> <td class="xl63">51</td> <td class="xl63">470</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 13.0pt;" height="13"> <td class="xl63" style="text-align: center; height: 13pt;" height="13">Dunk Rate</td> <td class="xl64">23.5%</td> <td class="xl64">40.0%</td> <td class="xl64">35.7%</td> <td class="xl64">33.3%</td> <td class="xl64">33.2%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p> </p> <ul> <li><span>As for tracking Gabe Olaseni's blocked shots, he swatted 3 of them against Iowa State. He is now currently the 6th best shot blocker in the nation, according to Kenpom. And I'm not saying it's going to happen, but just in case, I want to take this chance to remind everyone that my "other prediction" before this season was that <a target="_blank" href="">Olaseni would win Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year</a>.</span></li> <li><span>Yeah, I'm just going to leave this here (h/t PSD): </span></li> </ul> <p> </p> <p><iframe src="" class="vine-embed" height="480" width="480" frameborder="0"></iframe> <script charset="utf-8" src="//platform.vine.co/static/scripts/embed.js"></script> </p> <p>With one in-state opponent now in the bag, Iowa moves on and prepares to face their final one in Northern Iowa. From all indications it seems that UNI has a pretty good team this year, so hopefully the Hawkeyes can bounce back and come away with a victory in Des Moines this Saturday.</p> Matthew Lundeen