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  ---
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- title: Actuarial Savings Analysis
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  emoji: 🐒
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@@ -8,6 +8,134 @@ sdk_version: 5.31.0
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  app_file: app.py
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  pinned: false
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  license: mit
 
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  ---
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- Check out the configuration reference at https://huggingface.co/docs/hub/spaces-config-reference
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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+ title: TVOG Analysis Dashboard
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  emoji: 🐒
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  app_file: app.py
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  license: mit
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+ short_description: 'TVOG pricing: Monte Carlo vs. Black-Scholes tools.'
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  ---
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+ # TVOG Analysis Dashboard πŸ“Š
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+
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+ An interactive dashboard for analyzing Time Value of Options and Guarantees (TVOG) in Variable Annuity products with Guaranteed Minimum Accumulation Benefits (GMAB).
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+ [![Open in Spaces](https://huggingface.co/datasets/huggingface/badges/raw/main/open-in-hf-spaces-sm.svg)](https://huggingface.co/spaces/alidenewade/tvog-analysis-dashboard)
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+
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+ ## 🎯 Overview
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+
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+ This dashboard provides a comprehensive comparison between **Monte Carlo simulation** and **Black-Scholes-Merton analytical solutions** for pricing variable annuity guarantees. It's designed specifically for actuaries, finance professionals, economists, and academics working in insurance and financial risk management.
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+
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+ ## ✨ Key Features
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+
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+ ### πŸ”§ Interactive Controls
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+ - **Monte Carlo Parameters**: Adjustable scenario counts (1K-50K), risk-free rates, volatility levels
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+ - **Product Configuration**: Customizable sum assured, policy counts, and maturity periods
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+ - **Model Point Analysis**: Flexible premium ranges with configurable test points
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+
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+ ### πŸ“ˆ Four Analysis Modules
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+
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+ 1. **TVOG Comparison**: Side-by-side Monte Carlo vs Black-Scholes results with convergence ratios
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+ 2. **Simulation Paths**: Account value trajectory visualization with guarantee levels
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+ 3. **Distribution Analysis**: Statistical distributions of final values and GMAB payouts
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+ 4. **Convergence Analysis**: Monte Carlo convergence validation against analytical solutions
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+
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+ ### πŸ“Š Professional Output
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+ - **Results Table**: Detailed numerical comparison data
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+ - **Real-time Updates**: Dynamic recalculation with parameter changes
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+ - **Statistical Overlays**: Theoretical distributions and error metrics
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+ - **Export-Ready Visualizations**: High-quality plots for presentations
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+
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+ ## πŸš€ Getting Started
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+
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+ ### Online Usage
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+ Simply click the "Open in Spaces" badge above to access the live dashboard - no installation required!
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+
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+ ### Local Installation
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+ ```bash
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+ git clone https://huggingface.co/spaces/alidenewade/tvog-analysis-dashboard
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+ cd tvog-analysis-dashboard
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+ pip install -r requirements.txt
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+ python app.py
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+ ```
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+
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+ ## πŸ”¬ Technical Background
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+
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+ ### Mathematical Foundation
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+ The dashboard implements:
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+ - **Geometric Brownian Motion** for account value simulation: `dS/S = rΒ·dt + ΟƒΒ·Ξ΅Β·βˆšdt`
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+ - **Black-Scholes-Merton Formula** for European put option pricing
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+ - **Risk-Neutral Valuation** with Monte Carlo scenarios
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+
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+ ### Key Assumptions
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+ - No policy decrements (mortality/lapse rates = 0)
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+ - No management fees for clean comparison
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+ - Constant risk-free rate environment
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+ - Log-normal asset return distribution
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+
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+ ## πŸ‘₯ Target Audience
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+
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+ ### Primary Users
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+ - **Actuaries**: Pricing and reserving analysis for variable annuity products
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+ - **Risk Managers**: Quantifying guarantee costs and capital requirements
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+ - **Product Developers**: Designing and testing new guarantee features
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+ - **Academics**: Teaching and researching financial guarantee valuation
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+
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+ ### Use Cases
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+ - **Product Pricing**: Determine fair value of GMAB guarantees
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+ - **Model Validation**: Compare simulation results with analytical benchmarks
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+ - **Sensitivity Analysis**: Test impact of parameter changes on guarantee costs
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+ - **Educational Tool**: Demonstrate Monte Carlo vs analytical pricing methods
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+
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+ ## πŸ“š Methodology
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+
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+ ### Monte Carlo Simulation
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+ - Generates thousands of risk-neutral scenarios
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+ - Simulates account value paths using geometric Brownian motion
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+ - Calculates present value of guarantee payouts at maturity
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+ - Provides statistical confidence through large sample sizes
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+
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+ ### Black-Scholes-Merton Benchmark
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+ - Analytical solution for European put option pricing
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+ - Provides exact theoretical value for comparison
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+ - Validates Monte Carlo convergence and accuracy
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+ - Offers computational efficiency for sensitivity analysis
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+ ## πŸŽ›οΈ Parameter Guide
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+
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+ ### Critical Parameters
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+ - **Scenarios**: Higher counts improve accuracy but increase computation time
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+ - **Volatility**: Key driver of option value - higher volatility increases TVOG
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+ - **Risk-Free Rate**: Affects both drift and discounting of future payouts
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+ - **Moneyness**: Initial account value relative to guarantee level
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+
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+ ### Recommended Settings
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+ - **For Quick Analysis**: 5,000-10,000 scenarios
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+ - **For Production**: 50,000+ scenarios
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+ - **For Presentations**: 10,000 scenarios (good balance of accuracy/speed)
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+
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+ ## πŸ“– Educational Value
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+ This dashboard serves as an excellent educational tool for:
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+ - **Understanding Monte Carlo Methods** in financial modeling
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+ - **Comparing Simulation vs Analytical** approaches
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+ - **Visualizing Financial Risk** through interactive plots
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+ - **Learning Option Pricing Theory** in insurance contexts
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+
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+ ## οΏ½οΏ½οΏ½οΏ½ Contributing
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+
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+ Found a bug or have suggestions? Feel free to:
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+ - Open an issue on the repository
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+ - Submit a pull request with improvements
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+ - Share feedback through the Hugging Face community tab
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+
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+ ## πŸ“„ License
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+ This project is open source and available under the MIT License.
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+ ## πŸ™ Acknowledgments
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+ Based on the lifelib savings library example, which demonstrates advanced actuarial modeling techniques for variable annuity products.
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+ ---
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+ **Built with ❀️ for the actuarial and finance community**
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+ *For technical support or collaboration opportunities, connect through Hugging Face!*
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+ Check out the configuration reference at https://huggingface.co/docs/hub/spaces-config-reference