. Putin became involved in the conflict in eastern Ukraine. There he did not become a winner, even a small one. Eastern Ukraine is “a failure in foreign policy, and it shows that Russia, which has military superiority over its neighbors, cannot afford to wage long wars,” the expert notes.
The West plays on this weakness of the Kremlin and crushes Russia with sanctions that bite off about 1% of Russia's GDP each year.
Putin is politically savvy, the expert notes, and he often hides true intentions. It takes the whole world by surprise, both in military thinking and in diplomatic initiatives (examples: Ukraine and Syria). Yes, he is financially limited, but his position is not hopeless, and "we should always expect surprises from him," the author notes. And now, when Donald Trump won in the USA, which gave rise to a “power vacuum” in Washington, Putin has an excellent opportunity to “improve his internal status.” One can be sure that he is striving to take full advantage of this chance, Aslund sums up.
Another problem, both economic and strategic at the same time, is a high likelihood of increased tension in relations with Turkey. This is a problem of war.
The site Focus.de An interview with Abdel Mottaleb El Husseini (Abdel Mottaleb El-Husseini), a specialist in the Middle East.
The expert is convinced that Americans today have a “low profile” on Syria. And this “vacuum” in foreign policy will only intensify with the arrival of Mr. Trump in the White House. So there can be big changes in the Middle East. Their initiators will be "local actors."
Here are briefly expert predictions. Egypt will withdraw from the alliance with Saudi Arabia. It will gradually lose its leading position in the Arab world. See an opportunity to expand the influence of Iran. President Assad in Syria no longer feels completely isolated, since Russia wants to strengthen its position in the region. And here is another player: Turkey actively intervenes in the Syrian conflict. Together, this is an "explosive mixture."
The worst thing here is the threat of confrontation between Turkey and Russia. If Erdogan took advantage of the situation and intends to get even with the Kurds and redraw the borders, Putin is unlikely to approve such expansionist plans. Found a scythe on a stone: Erdogan has long wished to overthrow Assad, but Putin supports him.
In this scenario, el-Husseini is waiting for a confrontation between Russia and Turkey "at any moment." The expert is confident that the Russians will not tolerate the expansion of Turkey.
Another prediction: el Husseini doubts that NATO will join in this war and will support the Turks. The West has never danced to the tune of Ankara, and now it will not. Turkey was not attacked, she went on the attack. Erdogan, the expert considers utopian, who imagines himself the creator of the "great Turkish empire" and overestimated himself. With the new war, that fragile minimum of stability in the region, which is still preserved, will be destroyed.
Meanwhile, the Russian theme is still on the agenda of US lawmakers. The US House of Representatives passed a bill on intelligence services in 2017. The document contains a provision on the creation of an interdepartmental commission on "counteracting the latent influence of Russia on foreign states," notes "Lenta.ru".
The committee will include national intelligence officers, the State Department, the FBI, the ministries of defense, finance and energy.
The document was supported by 390 congressmen, all 30 voted against. The bill will now be considered in the senate.
According to a number of foreign experts, Russia observes threats from all sides and even from the inside. With a weak economy, a falling level of investment and a reduction in real incomes of the population, the country is involved in the Syrian conflict, the most dangerous threat in which is not a fight against IG (prohibited in the Russian Federation), but a likely confrontation with Turkey.
Experts do not lose hope for some stability of the Russian economy in the long term, but note the desire of the West to put more and more pressure on the Kremlin with sanctions, and in foreign policy - with propaganda and intelligence community activities.
every time they are surprised by such EXPERTS... specialists in pots and toilets!
to the toilet specialists!
Whatever specialists they are, but a conflict is possible with Turkey and God forbid war!
For Nitarius, in general, the analytics and forecast for the economy are pretty accurate, and they coincide quite well in politics, such comments are surprising. You are either on the moon or wherever you live, but not in Russia or for years you are still not enough.
"The general economic characteristics, both then and now, were quite similar: low oil prices, an unviable economic ideology, industries were state-owned. And, of course, authoritarian rule."
This is about the USSR. It’s strange somehow. A country that began life 70 times over 3 years from scratch, due to objective circumstances.
And stop grinding nonsense.  The country was cut off from half the world by an economic blockade. And for this reason, it had its own domestic market. Your banking system. And at least one can explain HOW? HOW could international oil prices affect the economy of the USSR?
Someone once said stupidity about the dependence of the USSR on generally external factors, now for years without delving into particulars, everyone repeats it.
I will support you. The Russian Federation is a self-sufficient country and the economy is building an appropriate one. There are electronics, aircraft, shipbuilding, engine building, etc. - but all this is more for domestic needs, and then for export. One State Reserve of the Russian Federation is worth. Or an import substitution program. They themselves did not expect how food exports exceeded arms exports. Now their engines will appear (PD-14, etc.), so they will not notice how the planes will be, like the cakes fly apart. Or those GTE for ships. So the potential is huge.
Or how to evaluate watered. influence? The whole world is watching how Moscow at the most critical moment intervened in Syria and pulled out Assad. Even the enemies appreciated it. Such trade balances do not appreciate. Or how to evaluate shoe changes in Europe? Brexit, Moldova and Bulgaria, France and Trump on their heads. How to evaluate the anti-sanctions that have shown the importance of the Russian market for the EU? And the humanitarian aspect - only the Russian Federation can so quickly provide assistance around the world (that Syria is an example of this)?!
Russia is doing badly and the United States is a prosperous country that lives on credit that amounts to more than a dozen trillions of dollars; not every country can allow this and at the same time flourish.
and at the same time flourish.
This paradox always surprised me!
There is no paradox: if you borrow "all the time" and do not give back, anyone will prosper. At school, the bully-repeater will also take away the dvadat from the fry: I, they say, will give it back - and it flourishes. But! The hooligan will sooner or later finish badly if the fry picked by him unite.
And you poke your nose in the loop!
No need to lie here. The USA pays its debt on time. Yes, and even more so that 70% of the debt is an internal debt to its own citizens. The United States is the only superpower. Russia, due to its economy, remains a regional power.
 The power of the state is determined by military power. If, God forbid, a military clash between Russia and the United States occurs, then what will happen?.
That's right, in Russia there will be no economic consequences; they have all come.
And the USA with a terrible roar will collapse from the pedestal, as its debt economy will not be able to function. And the US population will experience untold suffering from the lack of toilet paper.
For especially stubborn Pindolyubov there is a proverb (I explain - about the USA) - The higher the monkey climbs the tree, the better its butt is visible!.
Yes, what kind of economy is there.
The crisis of the economic system. Money in the financial sector, from the consumer ned money to buy goods. Therefore, everyone has debts. But in theory, you need to repay debts, and not take new ones.
The problem of the economy lies precisely in the fact that no one knows how to return this money to the consumer, so that he does not die in the literal sense of the word.
How can one talk about positive trends at the stage of crises? Only war resolved the issue of writing off debts.
Yes, this is not a paradox, this is life due to the robbery of others.
Insolence is the first happiness for the Yankees.
The document was supported by 390 congressmen...
Uraaa, you can now knock out funding for this business, because now in all the failures you can refer to the "hand of Moscow".
Aslund - derived from "a donkey".
Depil; and if tomorrow the CBR sells at once $ 100 billion, or even 10 billion at the interbank market, and the ruble to dollar exchange rate briefly will rise to 1: 2, in favor of the ruble - is that means that Russia's GDP will become larger than US GDP? The dollar is a completely arbitrary wrapper; Only infantiles, such as the indicated Donkey, can consider the state’s economic power in candy wrappers.
By the way, one thermonuclear warhead is equivalent to $ 100 billion of GDP, since it can destroy the