Daily Papers

SwiGLU has become a standard gated activation in modern Transformer MLPs, yet its gate sharpness -- the smoothness and selectivity of the gating function -- is typically fixed throughout training. In this work, we propose Confidence-Aware SwiGLU (κ-SwiGLU), a variant of SwiGLU for Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models that adjusts expert gate sharpness according to token-level routing confidence. Specifically, κ-SwiGLU parameterizes the SiLU gate sharpness coefficient as a learnable function of the router logit, enabling each expert gate unit to interpolate between smooth, broadly active gating and sharp, selective gating. We evaluate κ-SwiGLU on the FineWeb-Edu dataset across MoE Transformer models ranging from 8 to 28 layers. Across these settings, κ-SwiGLU improves mean CORE performance while adding negligible parameters and incurring only a small computational overhead, demonstrating that confidence-aware gate sharpness is a promising mechanism for improving MoE MLPs. The code is available at https://github.com/askerlee/kappa-swiglu.

Multimodal recommendation enhances ranking by integrating user-item interactions with item content, which is particularly effective under sparse feedback and long-tail distributions. However, multimodal signals are inherently heterogeneous and can conflict in specific contexts, making effective fusion both crucial and challenging. Existing approaches often rely on shared fusion pathways, leading to entangled representations and modality imbalance. To address these issues, we propose MAGNET, a Modality-Guided Mixture of Adaptive Graph Experts Network with Progressive Entropy-Triggered Routing for Multimodal Recommendation, designed to enhance controllability, stability, and interpretability in multimodal fusion. MAGNET couples interaction-conditioned expert routing with structure-aware graph augmentation, so that both what to fuse and how to fuse are explicitly controlled and interpretable. At the representation level, a dual-view graph learning module augments the interaction graph with content-induced edges, improving coverage for sparse and long-tail items while preserving collaborative structure via parallel encoding and lightweight fusion. At the fusion level, MAGNET employs structured experts with explicit modality roles-dominant, balanced, and complementary-enabling a more interpretable and adaptive combination of behavioral, visual, and textual cues. To further stabilize sparse routing and prevent expert collapse, we introduce a two-stage entropy-weighting mechanism that monitors routing entropy. This mechanism automatically transitions training from an early coverage-oriented regime to a later specialization-oriented regime, progressively balancing expert utilization and routing confidence. Extensive experiments on public benchmarks demonstrate consistent improvements over strong baselines.

MoE-PEFT methods combine Mixture of Experts with parameter-efficient fine-tuning for multi-task adaptation, but require separate adapters per expert causing trainable parameters to scale linearly with expert count and limiting applicability to adapter-based architectures. We propose LiME (Lightweight Mixture of Experts), which achieves expert specialization through lightweight modulation rather than adapter replication. Instead of separate adapters, LiME uses a single shared PEFT module and modulates its output with lightweight expert vectors, reducing expert parameters while generalizing to any PEFT method. Notably, LiME introduces zero-parameter routing by leveraging existing frozen and adapted representations eliminating learned router parameters typically required per layer. Theoretically, we prove that (i) more experts preserve more task-relevant information and (ii) modulation approximates full expert-specific PEFT with bounded error. LiME further incorporates n-gram windowed routing and adaptive expert selection (Auto Top-K) based on routing confidence. Experiments on MMT-47, a multimodal multi-task benchmark with 47 tasks spanning text, image, and video, demonstrate that LiME achieves competitive or superior performance while using up to 4x fewer trainable parameters and up to 29% faster training compared to corresponding MoE-PEFT baselines.

Vision-language models (VLMs) benefit from multiple vision encoders, but naively stacking them yields diminishing returns while multiplying inference costs. We propose SCOPE, a Mixture-of-Encoders (MoEnc) framework that dynamically selects one specialized encoder per image-text pair via instance-level routing, unlike token-level routing in traditional MoE. SCOPE maintains a shared encoder and a pool of routed encoders. A lightweight router uses cross-attention between text prompts and shared visual features to select the optimal encoder from the routed encoders. To train this router, we introduce dual entropy regularization with auxiliary losses to balance dataset-level load distribution with instance-level routing confidence. Remarkably, SCOPE with one shared plus one routed encoder outperforms models using all four extra encoders simultaneously, while reducing compute by 24-49\%. This demonstrates that intelligent encoder selection beats brute-force aggregation, challenging the prevailing paradigm in multi-encoder VLMs.

Recent advances in language and vision have demonstrated that scaling up model capacity consistently improves performance across diverse tasks. In 3D visual geometry reconstruction, large-scale training has likewise proven effective for learning versatile representations. However, further scaling of 3D models is challenging due to the complexity of geometric supervision and the diversity of 3D data. To overcome these limitations, we propose MoRE, a dense 3D visual foundation model based on a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architecture that dynamically routes features to task-specific experts, allowing them to specialize in complementary data aspects and enhance both scalability and adaptability. Aiming to improve robustness under real-world conditions, MoRE incorporates a confidence-based depth refinement module that stabilizes and refines geometric estimation. In addition, it integrates dense semantic features with globally aligned 3D backbone representations for high-fidelity surface normal prediction. MoRE is further optimized with tailored loss functions to ensure robust learning across diverse inputs and multiple geometric tasks. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MoRE achieves state-of-the-art performance across multiple benchmarks and supports effective downstream applications without extra computation.

While multi-agent systems (MAS) have demonstrated superior performance over single-agent approaches in complex reasoning tasks, they often suffer from significant computational inefficiencies. Existing frameworks typically deploy large language models (LLMs) uniformly across all agent roles, failing to account for the varying cognitive demands of different reasoning stages. We address this inefficiency by proposing OI-MAS framework, a novel multi-agent framework that implements an adaptive model-selection policy across a heterogeneous pool of multi-scale LLMs. Specifically, OI-MAS introduces a state-dependent routing mechanism that dynamically selects agent roles and model scales throughout the reasoning process. In addition, we introduce a confidence-aware mechanism that selects appropriate model scales conditioned on task complexity, thus reducing unnecessary reliance on large-scale models. Experimental results show that OI-MAS consistently outperforms baseline multi-agent systems, improving accuracy by up to 12.88\% while reducing cost by up to 79.78\%.

Recent work explores latent reasoning to improve reasoning efficiency by replacing explicit reasoning trajectories with continuous representations in a latent space, yet its effectiveness varies across settings. Analysis of model confidence dynamics under latent reasoning reveals that thinking trajectories ending in incorrect answers contain fewer low-confidence steps than those ending in correct answers. Meanwhile, we suggest that soft embeddings aggregated by multiple low-confidence thinking alternatives may introduce and propagate noise, leading to high confidence in unreliable reasoning trajectories. Motivated by these observations, ThinkRouter, an inference-time confidence-aware routing mechanism is proposed to avoid high confidence and noise for efficient reasoning. ThinkRouter routes thinking to the discrete token space when model confidence is low, and to the latent space otherwise. Extensive experiments on STEM reasoning and coding benchmarks across diverse large reasoning models demonstrate that ThinkRouter outperforms explicit CoT, random routing, and latent reasoning baselines in terms of accuracy, achieving an average improvement of 19.70 points in Pass@1, while reducing generation length by up to 15.55%. Further comprehensive analysis reveals that ThinkRouter can calibrate errors arising from explicit CoT and latent reasoning, and accelerates end-of-thinking token generation by globally lowering model confidence.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in applications requiring factual accuracy, yet their outputs often contain hallucinated responses. While fact-checking can mitigate these errors, existing methods typically retrieve external evidence indiscriminately, overlooking the model's internal knowledge and potentially introducing irrelevant noise. Moreover, current systems lack targeted mechanisms to resolve specific uncertainties in the model's reasoning. Inspired by how humans fact-check, we argue that LLMs should adaptively decide whether to rely on internal knowledge or initiate retrieval based on their confidence in a given claim. We introduce Probabilistic Certainty and Consistency (PCC), a framework that estimates factual confidence by jointly modeling an LLM's probabilistic certainty and reasoning consistency. These confidence signals enable an adaptive verification strategy: the model answers directly when confident, triggers targeted retrieval when uncertain or inconsistent, and escalates to deep search when ambiguity is high. Our confidence-guided routing mechanism ensures that retrieval is invoked only when necessary, improving both efficiency and reliability. Extensive experiments across three challenging benchmarks show that PCC achieves better uncertainty quantification than verbalized confidence and consistently outperforms strong LLM-based fact-checking baselines. Furthermore, we demonstrate that PCC generalizes well across various LLMs.

Speculative decoding accelerates autoregressive generation by letting a lightweight draft model propose future tokens that a larger target model then verifies in parallel. In practice, however, draft models are usually trained on broad generic corpora, which leaves it unclear how much speculative decoding quality depends on the draft training distribution. We study this question with lightweight HASS and EAGLE-2 drafters trained on MathInstruct, ShareGPT, and mixed-data variants, evaluated on MT-Bench, GSM8K, MATH-500, and SVAMP. Measured by acceptance length, task-specific training yields clear specialization: MathInstruct-trained drafts are strongest on reasoning benchmarks, while ShareGPT-trained drafts are strongest on MT-Bench. Mixed-data training improves robustness, but larger mixtures do not dominate across decoding temperatures. We also study how to combine specialized drafters at inference time. Naive checkpoint averaging performs poorly, whereas confidence-based routing improves over single-domain drafts and merged-tree verification yields the highest acceptance length overall for both backbones. Finally, confidence is a more useful routing signal than entropy: rejected tokens tend to have higher entropy, but confidence produces much clearer benchmark-level routing decisions. These results show that speculative decoding quality depends not only on draft architecture, but also on the match between draft training data and downstream workload, and that specialized drafters are better combined at inference time than in weight space.

We model Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) token routing as a congestion game with a single effective parameter, the congestion coefficient gamma_eff, that quantifies the balance-quality tradeoff. Tracking gamma_eff across training checkpoints of two open-source MoE models, OLMoE-1B-7B (20 checkpoints, with dense sampling in the surge region) and OpenMoE-8B (6 checkpoints), reveals a three-phase trajectory: a surge phase where the router learns to balance load (gamma_eff: 14 to 36-39, peaking in the step 30K-40K region), a stabilization phase where experts specialize under steady balance (B_0: 2.4 to 2.3, steps 100K-400K), and a relaxation phase where the router trades balance for quality as experts differentiate (gamma_eff: 27 to 9, steps 400K-1.2M). This non-monotone trajectory, invisible to post-hoc analysis of converged models, reveals that early MoE training prioritizes balance while late training prioritizes quality. The theoretical framework is honest about its limits: the single-type equilibrium reduces to temperature-scaled softmax (held-out L1: MFG = 0.199 vs. softmax = 0.200). The game is not a better predictor; it reveals what the temperature means and, critically, how that temperature evolves. We complement the dynamics with an effective congestion decomposition, a multi-type extension that improves load prediction via token clustering on all 16 layers (mean: 30%), scope diagnostics (K/M, epsilon_l), and robustness verification across four independent quality estimators (r >= 0.89). All confidence intervals are from bootstrap resampling over 50 independent text batches.

Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate superior reasoning capabilities compared to small language models (SLMs), but incur substantially higher costs. We propose COllaborative REAsoner (COREA), a system that cascades an SLM with an LLM to achieve a balance between accuracy and cost in complex reasoning tasks. COREA first attempts to answer questions using the SLM, which outputs both an answer and a verbalized confidence score. Questions with confidence below a predefined threshold are deferred to the LLM for more accurate resolution. We introduce a reinforcement learning-based training algorithm that aligns the SLM's confidence through an additional confidence calibration reward. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method jointly improves the SLM's reasoning ability and confidence calibration across diverse datasets and model backbones. Compared to using the LLM alone, COREA reduces cost by 21.5% and 16.8% on out-of-domain math and non-math datasets, respectively, with only an absolute pass@1 drop within 2%.

Domain expertise enhances judgment within boundaries but creates systematic vulnerabilities specifically at borders. We term this Transitive Expert Error (TEE), distinct from Dunning-Kruger effects, requiring calibrated expertise as precondition. Mechanisms enabling reliable within-domain judgment become liabilities when structural similarity masks causal divergence. Two core mechanisms operate: structural similarity bias causes experts to overweight surface features (shared vocabulary, patterns, formal structure) while missing causal architecture differences; authority persistence maintains confidence across competence boundaries through social reinforcement and metacognitive failures (experts experience no subjective uncertainty as pattern recognition operates smoothly on familiar-seeming inputs.) These mechanism intensify under three conditions: shared vocabulary masking divergent processes, social pressure for immediate judgment, and delayed feedback. These findings extend to AI routing architectures (MoE systems, multi-model orchestration, tool-using agents, RAG systems) exhibiting routing-induced failures (wrong specialist selected) and coverage-induced failures (no appropriate specialist exists). Both produce a hallucination phenotype: confident, coherent, structurally plausible but causally incorrect outputs at domain boundaries. In human systems where mechanisms are cognitive black boxes; AI architectures make them explicit and addressable. We propose interventions: multi-expert activation with disagreement detection (router level), boundary-aware calibration (specialist level), and coverage gap detection (training level). TEE has detectable signatures (routing patterns, confidence-accuracy dissociations, domain-inappropriate content) enabling monitoring and mitigation. What remains intractable in human cognition becomes addressable through architectural design.

Existing methods usually leverage a fixed strategy, such as natural language reasoning, code-augmented reasoning, tool-integrated reasoning, or ensemble-based reasoning, to guide Large Language Models (LLMs) to perform mathematical reasoning. Our analysis reveals that the single strategy cannot adapt to problem-specific requirements and thus overlooks the trade-off between effectiveness and efficiency. To address these issues, we propose Planning and Routing through Instance-Specific Modeling (PRISM), a novel framework that decouples mathematical reasoning into two stages: strategy planning and targeted execution. Specifically, we first curate a multi-strategy preference dataset, which we call MathStrat, capturing correctness, process quality, and computational efficiency for each problem--strategy pair. Then, we train a lightweight Strategy Adapter based on the dataset to obtain confidence distributions over the mentioned four reasoning strategies. At inference time, an adaptive routing policy dynamically tailors the reasoning approach based on predictor confidence. It directs the model to use single-strategy execution for high-confidence predictions, dual-strategy verification for competitive scenarios, or comprehensive multi-strategy exploration for uncertain cases. Extensive experiments across five mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that PRISM consistently outperforms individual strategies and ensemble baselines, achieving improvements ranging from 0.9% to 7.6% across different base models. The adaptive routing approach shows particularly strong benefits for mathematical reasoning tasks across diverse model architectures. Our code is released at https://github.com/reml-group/PRISM.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance on several tasks and are increasingly deployed in real-world applications. However, especially in high-stakes settings, it becomes vital to know when the output of an LLM may be unreliable. Depending on whether an answer is trustworthy, a system can then choose to route the question to another expert, or otherwise fall back on a safe default behavior. In this work, we study the extent to which LLMs can reliably indicate confidence in their answers, and how this notion of confidence can translate into downstream accuracy gains. We propose Self-REF, a lightweight training strategy to teach LLMs to express confidence in whether their answers are correct in a reliable manner. Self-REF introduces confidence tokens into the LLM, from which a confidence score can be extracted. Compared to conventional approaches such as verbalizing confidence and examining token probabilities, we demonstrate empirically that confidence tokens show significant improvements in downstream routing and rejection learning tasks.

Computer Use Agents (CUAs) translate natural-language instructions into Graphical User Interface (GUI) actions such as clicks, keystrokes, and scrolls by relying on a Vision-Language Model (VLM) to interpret screenshots and predict grounded tool calls. However, grounding accuracy varies dramatically across VLMs, while current CUA systems typically route every action to a single fixed model regardless of difficulty. We propose Adaptive VLM Routing (AVR), a framework that inserts a lightweight semantic routing layer between the CUA orchestrator and a pool of VLMs. For each tool call, AVR estimates action difficulty from multimodal embeddings, probes a small VLM to measure confidence, and routes the action to the cheapest model whose predicted accuracy satisfies a target reliability threshold. For warm agents with memory of prior UI interactions, retrieved context further narrows the capability gap between small and large models, allowing many actions to be handled without escalation. We formalize routing as a cost--accuracy trade-off, derive a threshold-based policy for model selection, and evaluate AVR using ScreenSpot-Pro grounding data together with the OpenClaw agent routing benchmark. Across these settings, AVR projects inference cost reductions of up to 78\% while staying within 2 percentage points of an all-large-model baseline. When combined with the Visual Confused Deputy guardrail, AVR also escalates high-risk actions directly to the strongest available model, unifying efficiency and safety within a single routing framework. Materials are also provided Model, benchmark, and code: https://github.com/vllm-project/semantic-router.

In this paper, we introduce a novel dynamic expert selection framework for Mixture of Experts (MoE) models, aiming to enhance computational efficiency and model performance by adjusting the number of activated experts based on input difficulty. Unlike traditional MoE approaches that rely on fixed Top-K routing, which activates a predetermined number of experts regardless of the input's complexity, our method dynamically selects experts based on the confidence level in expert selection for each input. This allows for a more efficient utilization of computational resources, activating more experts for complex tasks requiring advanced reasoning and fewer for simpler tasks. Through extensive evaluations, our dynamic routing method demonstrates substantial improvements over conventional Top-2 routing across various benchmarks, achieving an average improvement of 0.7% with less than 90% activated parameters. Further analysis shows our model dispatches more experts to tasks requiring complex reasoning skills, like BBH, confirming its ability to dynamically allocate computational resources in alignment with the input's complexity. Our findings also highlight a variation in the number of experts needed across different layers of the transformer model, offering insights into the potential for designing heterogeneous MoE frameworks. The code and models are available at https://github.com/ZhenweiAn/Dynamic_MoE.

Large language model retrievers improve performance on complex queries, but their practical value depends on efficiency, robustness, and reliable confidence signals in addition to accuracy. We reproduce a reasoning-intensive retrieval benchmark (BRIGHT) across 12 tasks and 14 retrievers, and extend evaluation with cold-start indexing cost, query latency distributions and throughput, corpus scaling, robustness to controlled query perturbations, and confidence use (AUROC) for predicting query success. We also quantify reasoning overhead by comparing standard queries to five provided reasoning-augmented variants, measuring accuracy gains relative to added latency. We find that some reasoning-specialized retrievers achieve strong effectiveness while remaining competitive in throughput, whereas several large LLM-based bi-encoders incur substantial latency for modest gains. Reasoning augmentation incurs minimal latency for sub-1B encoders but exhibits diminishing returns for top retrievers and may reduce performance on formal math/code domains. Confidence calibration is consistently weak across model families, indicating that raw retrieval scores are unreliable for downstream routing without additional calibration. We release all code and artifacts for reproducibility.

As multi-agent AI systems grow in complexity, the protocols connecting them constrain their capabilities. Current protocols such as A2A and MCP do not expose model-level properties as first-class primitives, ignoring properties fundamental to effective delegation: model identity, reasoning profile, quality calibration, and cost characteristics. We present the LLM Delegate Protocol (LDP), an AI-native communication protocol introducing five mechanisms: (1) rich delegate identity cards with quality hints and reasoning profiles; (2) progressive payload modes with negotiation and fallback; (3) governed sessions with persistent context; (4) structured provenance tracking confidence and verification status; (5) trust domains enforcing security boundaries at the protocol level. We implement LDP as a plugin for the JamJet agent runtime and evaluate against A2A and random baselines using local Ollama models and LLM-as-judge evaluation. Identity-aware routing achieves ~12x lower latency on easy tasks through delegate specialization, though it does not improve aggregate quality in our small delegate pool; semantic frame payloads reduce token count by 37% (p=0.031) with no observed quality loss; governed sessions eliminate 39% token overhead at 10 rounds; and noisy provenance degrades synthesis quality below the no-provenance baseline, arguing that confidence metadata is harmful without verification. Simulated analyses show architectural advantages in attack detection (96% vs. 6%) and failure recovery (100% vs. 35% completion). This paper contributes a protocol design, reference implementation, and initial evidence that AI-native protocol primitives enable more efficient and governable delegation.

Scaling educational assessment with large language models requires not just accuracy, but the ability to recognize when predictions are trustworthy. Instruction-tuned models tend to be overconfident, and their reliability deteriorates as curricula evolve, making fully autonomous deployment unsafe in high-stakes settings. We introduce CHiL(L)Grader, the first automated grading framework that incorporates calibrated confidence estimation into a human-in-the-loop workflow. Using post-hoc temperature scaling, confidence-based selective prediction, and continual learning, CHiL(L)Grader automates only high-confidence predictions while routing uncertain cases to human graders, and adapts to evolving rubrics and unseen questions. Across three short-answer grading datasets, CHiL(L)Grader automatically scores 35-65% of responses at expert-level quality (QWK >= 0.80). A QWK gap of 0.347 between accepted and rejected predictions confirms the effectiveness of the confidence-based routing. Each correction cycle strengthens the model's grading capability as it learns from teacher feedback. These results show that uncertainty quantification is key for reliable AI-assisted grading.

Recent advances in multimodal web agents often rely on increased inference-time computation, including rollout search, verifier passes, offline skill discovery, and specialist model stacks. This raises a central question: can a web agent become more efficient as it accumulates experience, rather than more expensive? We first analyze trajectories from VisualWebArena and identify three recurring sources of inefficiency: repeat-action loops, hidden discovery costs, and low prompt-cache reuse. We then introduce PANDO, a single-rollout online skill-distillation framework that maintains a structured Skill Library and combines progress reflection, confidence-based skill demotion, hierarchical routing, visual compression, and cache-aware prompting. On the full set of 910 VisualWebArena tasks, PANDO achieves a 58.3% success rate, outperforming SGV (54.0%) and our WALT reproduction (45.2%), while using 58% fewer tokens than SGV and 61% fewer tokens than WALT, without any pre-evaluation discovery budget. A 300-task ablation further shows that rules and routines provide most of the success gains, while routing, compression, and cache-aware prompting convert the larger skill library into lower marginal token cost. Finally, we introduce three trajectory-level efficiency metrics -- Action Repetition Rate, Step Overhead Ratio, and Prompt Cache Utilization -- to make efficiency visible beyond terminal success.

Upcycling pre-trained dense models into sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoEs) efficiently increases model capacity but often suffers from poor expert specialization due to naive weight replication. Our analysis reveals that upcycled MoEs, even with conventional regularization, exhibit low-confidence, weakly differentiated routing, hindering performance. We introduce Dirichlet-Prior Shaping Loss (DPSL), a novel router regularization technique that directly shapes routing probability distributions by matching expert assignments to a target Dirichlet prior. DPSL offers fine-grained control over expert balance and specialization, and enables encoding of inductive biases such as encouraging experts to focus on specific modalities or tasks, without requiring manual intervention; notably, DPSL is a general tool applicable to any module that outputs categorical probability distributions, extending its utility beyond MoE training. Experiments on upcycled MoE vision-language models (with Qwen2, Phi3, Llama3.2 LLM backbones) show DPSL consistently outperforms upcycling strategies and regularization techniques across standard vision-language benchmarks, addressing the critical issue of poor specialization and fostering more adaptive, higher-performing models.

Temporal credit assignment in reinforcement learning is often approached by introducing value estimates at multiple discount factors. A natural next step is to let the actor dynamically route among these temporal heads, using either differentiable attention or heuristic uncertainty weights. This paper argues that such routing can create a numerical shortcut rather than a reliable temporal abstraction. We study this issue in a controlled PPO setting on LunarLander-v2, using the environment as a visual sandbox for diagnosing failure modes. First, we formalize Surrogate Objective Hacking: a differentiable softmax router exposed to the PPO surrogate receives a direct gradient toward advantage heads that are numerically favorable for the current update, even when this routing change does not correspond to improved physical control. Because unnormalized advantages at different discount factors have different effective scales, this creates a scale-discrepancy vulnerability. Second, we identify the Paradox of Temporal Uncertainty in gradient-free error-based routing: short-horizon heads can receive the largest routing share because their prediction targets are easier, even when they are less aligned with delayed task success. As a structural response, we study Target Decoupling: the critic may retain multi-timescale auxiliary heads, but the actor is updated only with the long-horizon advantage. Target Decoupling is not presented as a broad performance booster; in this run set it removes the exploitable actor-side routing pathway and improves the observed worst-seed return. Code is available at https://github.com/ben-dlwlrma/Representation-Over-Routing.

Robust routing under uncertainty is central to real-world logistics, yet most benchmarks assume static, idealized settings. We present SVRPBench, the first open benchmark to capture high-fidelity stochastic dynamics in vehicle routing at urban scale. Spanning more than 500 instances with up to 1000 customers, it simulates realistic delivery conditions: time-dependent congestion, log-normal delays, probabilistic accidents, and empirically grounded time windows for residential and commercial clients. Our pipeline generates diverse, constraint-rich scenarios, including multi-depot and multi-vehicle setups. Benchmarking reveals that state-of-the-art RL solvers like POMO and AM degrade by over 20% under distributional shift, while classical and metaheuristic methods remain robust. To enable reproducible research, we release the dataset and evaluation suite. SVRPBench challenges the community to design solvers that generalize beyond synthetic assumptions and adapt to real-world uncertainty.

Self-consistency decoding enhances LLMs' performance on reasoning tasks by sampling diverse reasoning paths and selecting the most frequent answer. However, it is computationally expensive, as sampling many of these (lengthy) paths is required to increase the chances that the correct answer emerges as the most frequent one. To address this, we introduce Confidence-Informed Self-Consistency (CISC). CISC performs a weighted majority vote based on confidence scores obtained directly from the model. By prioritizing high-confidence paths, it can identify the correct answer with a significantly smaller sample size. When tested on nine models and four datasets, CISC outperforms self-consistency in nearly all configurations, reducing the required number of reasoning paths by over 40% on average. In addition, we introduce the notion of within-question confidence evaluation, after showing that standard evaluation methods are poor predictors of success in distinguishing correct and incorrect answers to the same question. In fact, the most calibrated confidence method proved to be the least effective for CISC. Lastly, beyond these practical implications, our results and analyses show that LLMs can effectively judge the correctness of their own outputs, contributing to the ongoing debate on this topic.

By routing input tokens to only a few split experts, Sparse Mixture-of-Experts has enabled efficient training of large language models. Recent findings suggest that fixing the routers can achieve competitive performance by alleviating the collapsing problem, where all experts eventually learn similar representations. However, this strategy has two key limitations: (i) the policy derived from random routers might be sub-optimal, and (ii) it requires extensive resources during training and evaluation, leading to limited efficiency gains. This work introduces \HyperRout, which dynamically generates the router's parameters through a fixed hypernetwork and trainable embeddings to achieve a balance between training the routers and freezing them to learn an improved routing policy. Extensive experiments across a wide range of tasks demonstrate the superior performance and efficiency gains of \HyperRouter compared to existing routing methods. Our implementation is publicly available at {{https://github.com/giangdip2410/HyperRouter}}.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) perform strongly in complex reasoning tasks via Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting, but often suffer from verbose outputs caused by redundant content, increasing computational overhead, and degrading user experience. Existing compression methods either operate post-hoc pruning, risking disruption to reasoning coherence, or rely on sampling-based selection, which fails to intervene effectively during generation. In this work, we introduce a confidence-guided perspective to explain the emergence of redundant reflection in LRMs, identifying two key patterns: Confidence Deficit, where the model reconsiders correct steps due to low internal confidence, and Termination Delay, where reasoning continues even after reaching a confident answer. Based on this analysis, we propose ConCISE (Confidence-guided Compression In Step-by-step Efficient Reasoning), a framework that simplifies reasoning chains by reinforcing the model's confidence during inference, thus preventing the generation of redundant reflection steps. It integrates Confidence Injection to stabilize intermediate steps and Early Stopping to terminate reasoning when confidence is sufficient. Extensive experiments demonstrate that fine-tuning LRMs on ConCISE-generated data yields significantly shorter outputs, reducing length by up to approximately 50% under SimPO, while maintaining high task accuracy. ConCISE consistently outperforms existing baselines across multiple reasoning benchmarks.

As LLM agent ecosystems grow, the number of available skills (tools, plugins) has reached tens of thousands, making it infeasible to inject all skills into an agent's context. This creates a need for skill routing -- retrieving the most relevant skills from a large pool given a user task. The problem is compounded by pervasive functional overlap in community skill repositories, where many skills share similar names and purposes yet differ in implementation details. Despite its practical importance, skill routing remains under-explored. Current agent architectures adopt a progressive disclosure design -- exposing only skill names and descriptions to the agent while keeping the full implementation body hidden -- implicitly treating metadata as sufficient for selection. We challenge this assumption through a systematic empirical study on a benchmark of ~$80K skills and 75 expert-verified queries. Our key finding is that the skill body (full implementation text) is the decisive signal: removing it causes 29--44 percentage point degradation across all retrieval methods, and cross-encoder attention analysis reveals 91.7% of attention concentrating on the body field. Motivated by this finding, we propose SkillRouter, a two-stage retrieve-and-rerank pipeline totaling only 1.2B parameters (0.6B encoder + 0.6B reranker). SkillRouter achieves 74.0% top-1 routing accuracy and delivers the strongest average result among the compact and zero-shot baselines we evaluate, while remaining deployable on consumer hardware.

Confidence in LLMs is a useful indicator of model uncertainty and answer reliability. Existing work mainly focused on single-turn scenarios, while research on confidence in complex multi-turn interactions is limited. In this paper, we investigate whether LLM-based search agents have the ability to communicate their own confidence through verbalized confidence scores after long sequences of actions, a significantly more challenging task compared to outputting confidence in a single interaction. Experimenting on open-source agentic models, we first find that models exhibit much higher task accuracy at high confidence while having near-zero accuracy when confidence is low. Based on this observation, we propose Test-Time Scaling (TTS) methods that use confidence scores to determine answer quality, encourage the model to try again until reaching a satisfactory confidence level. Results show that our proposed methods significantly reduce token consumption while demonstrating competitive performance compared to baseline fixed budget TTS methods.

Recent advances in Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have significantly improved long-chain reasoning capabilities over Large Language Models (LLMs). However, LRMs often produce unnecessarily lengthy outputs even for simple queries, leading to inefficiencies or even accuracy degradation compared to LLMs. To overcome this, we propose CP-Router, a training-free and model-agnostic routing framework that dynamically selects between an LLM and an LRM, demonstrated with multiple-choice question answering (MCQA) prompts. The routing decision is guided by the prediction uncertainty estimates derived via Conformal Prediction (CP), which provides rigorous coverage guarantees. To further refine the uncertainty differentiation across inputs, we introduce Full and Binary Entropy (FBE), a novel entropy-based criterion that adaptively selects the appropriate CP threshold. Experiments across diverse MCQA benchmarks, including mathematics, logical reasoning, and Chinese chemistry, demonstrate that CP-Router efficiently reduces token usage while maintaining or even improving accuracy compared to using LRM alone. We also extend CP-Router to diverse model pairings and open-ended QA, where it continues to demonstrate strong performance, validating its generality and robustness.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in applications where LLM inputs may span many different tasks. Recent work has found that the choice of LLM is consequential, and different LLMs may be good for different input samples. Prior approaches have thus explored how engineers might select an LLM to use for each sample (i.e. routing). While existing routing methods mostly require training auxiliary models on human-annotated data, our work explores whether it is possible to perform unsupervised routing. We propose Smoothie, a weak supervision-inspired routing approach that requires no labeled data. Given a set of outputs from different LLMs, Smoothie constructs a latent variable graphical model over embedding representations of observable LLM outputs and unknown "true" outputs. Using this graphical model, we estimate sample-dependent quality scores for each LLM, and route each sample to the LLM with the highest corresponding score. We find that Smoothie's LLM quality-scores correlate with ground-truth model quality (correctly identifying the optimal model on 9/14 tasks), and that Smoothie outperforms baselines for routing by up to 10 points accuracy.

Sparsely activated neural networks with conditional computation learn to route their inputs through different "expert" subnetworks, providing a form of modularity that densely activated models lack. Despite their possible benefits, models with learned routing often underperform their parameter-matched densely activated counterparts as well as models that use non-learned heuristic routing strategies. In this paper, we hypothesize that these shortcomings stem from the gradient estimation techniques used to train sparsely activated models that use non-differentiable discrete routing decisions. To address this issue, we introduce Soft Merging of Experts with Adaptive Routing (SMEAR), which avoids discrete routing by using a single "merged" expert constructed via a weighted average of all of the experts' parameters. By routing activations through a single merged expert, SMEAR does not incur a significant increase in computational costs and enables standard gradient-based training. We empirically validate that models using SMEAR outperform models that route based on metadata or learn sparse routing through gradient estimation. Furthermore, we provide qualitative analysis demonstrating that the experts learned via SMEAR exhibit a significant amount of specialization. All of the code used in our experiments is publicly available.

We present ACAR (Adaptive Complexity and Attribution Routing), a measurement framework for studying multi-model orchestration under auditable conditions. ACAR uses self-consistency variance (sigma) computed from N=3 probe samples to route tasks across single-model, two-model, and three-model execution modes. The system is implemented on top of TEAMLLM, a deterministic execution substrate with immutable artifacts and complete decision traces. We evaluate ACAR on 1,510 tasks spanning four benchmarks: MathArena, Reasoning Gym, LiveCodeBench, and SuperGPQA, using Claude Sonnet 4, GPT-4o, and Gemini 2.0 Flash, producing more than 7,550 auditable runs. Results show that sigma-based routing achieves 55.6 percent accuracy, exceeding the two-model baseline of 54.4 percent while avoiding full ensembling on 54.2 percent of tasks. The routing mechanism is model-agnostic and requires no learned components. We also document negative results. First, retrieval augmentation reduced accuracy by 3.4 percentage points, as median retrieval similarity was only 0.167, demonstrating that experience injection without semantic alignment introduces noise rather than grounding. Second, when models agree on incorrect answers (sigma equals zero), no downstream ensemble can recover; this agreement-but-wrong failure mode is intrinsic to self-consistency and bounds achievable accuracy at approximately eight percentage points below full ensembling. Third, attribution estimates based on proxy signals such as response similarity and entropy showed weak correlation with ground-truth leave-one-out values, indicating that practical attribution requires explicit counterfactual computation. This work documents which assumptions fail in practice and provides falsifiable baselines for future research on routing, retrieval, and multi-model attribution.

Large language models (LLMs) can increase users' perceived trust by verbalizing confidence in their outputs. However, prior work has shown that LLMs are often overconfident, making their stated confidence unreliable since it does not consistently align with factual accuracy. To better understand the sources of this verbalized confidence, we introduce TracVC (Tracing Verbalized Confidence), a method that builds on information retrieval and influence estimation to trace generated confidence expressions back to the training data. We evaluate TracVC on OLMo and Llama models in a question answering setting, proposing a new metric, content groundness, which measures the extent to which an LLM grounds its confidence in content-related training examples (relevant to the question and answer) versus in generic examples of confidence verbalization. Our analysis reveals that OLMo2-13B is frequently influenced by confidence-related data that is lexically unrelated to the query, suggesting that it may mimic superficial linguistic expressions of certainty rather than rely on genuine content grounding. These findings point to a fundamental limitation in current training regimes: LLMs may learn how to sound confident without learning when confidence is justified. Our analysis provides a foundation for improving LLMs' trustworthiness in expressing more reliable confidence.

Increasing test-time computation is a straightforward approach to enhancing the quality of responses in Large Language Models (LLMs). While Best-of-N sampling and Self-Consistency with majority voting are simple and effective, they require a fixed number of sampling responses for each query, regardless of its complexity. This could result in wasted computation for simpler questions and insufficient exploration for more challenging ones. In this work, we argue that model confidence of responses can be used for improving the efficiency of test-time scaling. Unfortunately, LLMs are known to be overconfident and provide unreliable confidence estimation. To address this limitation, we introduce Self-Calibration by distilling Self-Consistency-derived confidence into the model itself. This enables reliable confidence estimation at test time with one forward pass. We then design confidence-based efficient test-time scaling methods to handle queries of various difficulty, such as Early-Stopping for Best-of-N and Self-Consistency with calibrated confidence. Experiments on three LLMs across six datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Specifically, applying confidence-based Early Stopping to Best-of-N improves MathQA accuracy from 81.0 to 83.6 with a sample budget of 16 responses, indicating the efficacy of confidence-based sampling strategy at inference time.

Sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures employ increasingly sophisticated routing mechanisms -- learned routers, multi-hop trajectories, token-dependent gating. We ask: does routing topology actually determine language modeling quality? We build a geometric MoE (ST-MoE) using cosine-similarity routing against learned centroids in a low-dimensional space (d_{space} = 64), requiring 80% fewer routing parameters than standard linear routers. Through 62 controlled experiments on WikiText-103 at 76--84M parameters trained to convergence (50K steps, 1.64B tokens), we find that routing topology does not determine asymptotic perplexity (PPL): five cosine-routing variants are statistically equivalent within a 1-PPL margin (Two One-Sided Tests [TOST], p < 0.05 for all 10 pairwise comparisons; 15 runs across 3 seeds, observed range 33.93--34.72). The finding extends to hash, random-fixed, and top-1 routing (single-seed; graceful 1.1--2.2 PPL degradation) and replicates on OpenWebText (0.03 PPL gap, 6 runs, 3 seeds each). A standard linear router with 5.3times more routing parameters reaches PPL 32.76, but iso-parameter cosine routing closes 67% of this gap -- the true mechanism advantage is sim1.2%. The mechanistic explanation is convergent redundancy: multi-hop updates are collinear (cos(Δh_0, Δh_1) = 0.805), implementing magnitude amplification rather than compositional reasoning; a single learnable scalar replicates multi-hop performance. As a practical payoff, zero-shot relative-norm halting saves 25% of MoE FLOPs at +0.12% PPL. Expert-level specialization and causal controllability -- which coexist with topology-level equifinality -- are explored in a companion paper.

Long chains of thought (CoT) from current language models frequently contain logical gaps and unjustified leaps, limiting the gains from additional test-time compute. Improving reasoning quality directly would require process reward models, but the step-level annotations needed to train them are expensive and scarce. We find such a signal in how the model's confidence evolves during reasoning: premature confidence, the tendency to commit to an answer early and use the remaining tokens to rationalize it, strongly predicts flawed reasoning across tasks and model scales. We exploit this in progressive confidence shaping, a reinforcement learning objective that trains models to update their confidence as they reason rather than commit early -- rewarding gradual confidence growth and penalizing early commitment, with no external labels or reward models. The method improves accuracy and reasoning quality from 1.5B to 8B parameters across arithmetic (Countdown), math (DAPO, AIME), and science (ScienceQA): on Countdown, accuracy improves 3.2x (+42.0pp) and flawed reasoning drops 48pp; on AIME, Pass@64 improves 6.6pp. Consistent with this mechanism, the method also improves faithfulness: on a safety benchmark, our models more transparently surface misleading content in their reasoning traces rather than concealing it. Controlled experiments reveal that the problem and its remedy scale together: premature confidence grows with model size and task difficulty, and so do the gains from addressing it.

As large language models (LLMs) grow in scale and specialization, routing--selecting the best model for a given input--has become essential for efficient and effective deployment. While recent methods rely on complex learned routing strategies, their dependence on disparate training data and evaluation setups makes comparison and generalization difficult. In this work, we revisit LLM routing through the lens of simplicity. We show that a well-tuned k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) approach not only matches but often outperforms state-of-the-art learned routers across diverse tasks. To support systematic evaluation, we introduce a suite of standardized routing benchmarks spanning instruction-following, question-answering, and reasoning tasks, as well as the first multi-modal routing dataset involving visual inputs. Our findings reveal that the locality properties of model performance in embedding space enable simple non-parametric methods to achieve strong routing decisions with lower sample complexity than parametric approaches. This challenges the prevailing trend toward sophisticated architectures and highlights the importance of thoroughly evaluating simple baselines before investing in complex solutions. To support reproducibility and further exploration, we will release all benchmarks and code upon publication.

Multi-model routing has evolved from an engineering technique into essential infrastructure, yet existing work lacks a systematic, reproducible benchmark for evaluating vision-language models (VLMs). We present VL-RouterBench to assess the overall capability of VLM routing systems systematically. The benchmark is grounded in raw inference and scoring logs from VLMs and constructs quality and cost matrices over sample-model pairs. In scale, VL-RouterBench covers 14 datasets across 3 task groups, totaling 30,540 samples, and includes 15 open-source models and 2 API models, yielding 519,180 sample-model pairs and a total input-output token volume of 34,494,977. The evaluation protocol jointly measures average accuracy, average cost, and throughput, and builds a ranking score from the harmonic mean of normalized cost and accuracy to enable comparison across router configurations and cost budgets. On this benchmark, we evaluate 10 routing methods and baselines and observe a significant routability gain, while the best current routers still show a clear gap to the ideal Oracle, indicating considerable room for improvement in router architecture through finer visual cues and modeling of textual structure. We will open-source the complete data construction and evaluation toolchain to promote comparability, reproducibility, and practical deployment in multimodal routing research.

The availability of performant pre-trained models has led to a proliferation of fine-tuned expert models that are specialized to particular domains. This has enabled the creation of powerful and adaptive routing-based "Model MoErging" methods with the goal of using expert modules to create an aggregate system with improved performance or generalization. However, existing MoErging methods often prioritize generalization to unseen tasks at the expense of performance on held-in tasks, which limits its practical applicability in real-world deployment scenarios. We observe that current token-level routing mechanisms neglect the global semantic context of the input task. This token-wise independence hinders effective expert selection for held-in tasks, as routing decisions fail to incorporate the semantic properties of the task. To address this, we propose, Global and Local Instruction Driven Expert Router (GLIDER) that integrates a multi-scale routing mechanism, encompassing a semantic global router and a learned local router. The global router leverages LLM's advanced reasoning capabilities for semantic-related contexts to enhance expert selection. Given the input query and LLM, the router generates semantic task instructions that guide the retrieval of the most relevant experts across all layers. This global guidance is complemented by a local router that facilitates token-level routing decisions within each module, enabling finer control and enhanced performance on unseen tasks. Our experiments using T5-based models for T0 and FLAN tasks demonstrate that GLIDER achieves substantially improved held-in performance while maintaining strong generalization on held-out tasks. We also perform ablations experiments to dive deeper into the components of GLIDER. Our experiments highlight the importance of our multi-scale routing that leverages LLM-driven semantic reasoning for MoErging methods.

Reward models can significantly enhance the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), but they typically require extensive curated data and costly training. To mitigate these challenges, training-free approaches such as LLM-as-a-Judge leverage the intrinsic reasoning abilities of LLMs to evaluate responses, achieving promising results. Recent works have also indicated that model confidence can serve effectively as a reward metric, distinguishing between chain-of-thought (CoT) and non-CoT paths. However, the concept of using confidence as a reward has not been comprehensively studied. In this work, we systematically investigate Confidence-as-a-Reward (CRew), a simple yet powerful training-free method that utilizes token-level confidence in the model's final answers as a proxy for reward, especially suitable for close-ended tasks. Through extensive experiments on mathematical reasoning tasks, we demonstrate that CRew outperforms existing training-free reward approaches on the MATH500 and RewardMATH benchmarks, and even surpasses most trained reward models. We further identify a strong correlation between CRew scores and the actual reasoning performance of the model. Additionally, we find that CRew can effectively filter high-quality training data. Building upon these insights, we propose CRew-DPO, a training strategy that constructs preference data from confidence scores combined with correctness signals. Finetuning with CRew-DPO further enhances the model's judging capabilities and consistently outperforms existing self-training methods.

While confidence estimation is a promising direction for mitigating hallucinations in Large Language Models (LLMs), current research dominantly focuses on single-turn settings. The dynamics of model confidence in multi-turn conversations, where context accumulates and ambiguity is progressively resolved, remain largely unexplored. Reliable confidence estimation in multi-turn settings is critical for many downstream applications, such as autonomous agents and human-in-the-loop systems. This work presents the first systematic study of confidence estimation in multi-turn interactions, establishing a formal evaluation framework grounded in two key desiderata: per-turn calibration and monotonicity of confidence as more information becomes available. To facilitate this, we introduce novel metrics, including a length-normalized Expected Calibration Error (InfoECE), and a new "Hinter-Guesser" paradigm for generating controlled evaluation datasets. Our experiments reveal that widely-used confidence techniques struggle with calibration and monotonicity in multi-turn dialogues. We propose P(Sufficient), a logit-based probe that achieves comparatively better performance, although the task remains far from solved. Our work provides a foundational methodology for developing more reliable and trustworthy conversational agents.

As the range of applications for Large Language Models (LLMs) continues to grow, the demand for effective serving solutions becomes increasingly critical. Despite the versatility of LLMs, no single model can optimally address all tasks and applications, particularly when balancing performance with cost. This limitation has led to the development of LLM routing systems, which combine the strengths of various models to overcome the constraints of individual LLMs. Yet, the absence of a standardized benchmark for evaluating the performance of LLM routers hinders progress in this area. To bridge this gap, we present RouterBench, a novel evaluation framework designed to systematically assess the efficacy of LLM routing systems, along with a comprehensive dataset comprising over 405k inference outcomes from representative LLMs to support the development of routing strategies. We further propose a theoretical framework for LLM routing, and deliver a comparative analysis of various routing approaches through RouterBench, highlighting their potentials and limitations within our evaluation framework. This work not only formalizes and advances the development of LLM routing systems but also sets a standard for their assessment, paving the way for more accessible and economically viable LLM deployments. The code and data are available at https://github.com/withmartian/routerbench.

Mixture of Experts models are widely assumed to achieve domain specialization through sparse routing. In this work, we question this assumption by introducing COMMITTEEAUDIT, a post hoc framework that analyzes routing behavior at the level of expert groups rather than individual experts. Across three representative models and the MMLU benchmark, we uncover a domain-invariant Standing Committee. This is a compact coalition of routed experts that consistently captures the majority of routing mass across domains, layers, and routing budgets, even when architectures already include shared experts. Qualitative analysis further shows that Standing Committees anchor reasoning structure and syntax, while peripheral experts handle domain-specific knowledge. These findings reveal a strong structural bias toward centralized computation, suggesting that specialization in Mixture of Experts models is far less pervasive than commonly believed. This inherent bias also indicates that current training objectives, such as load-balancing losses that enforce uniform expert utilization, may be working against the model's natural optimization path, thereby limiting training efficiency and performance.

Over the past year, the vLLM Semantic Router project has released a series of work spanning: (1) core routing mechanisms -- signal-driven routing, context-length pool routing, router performance engineering, policy conflict detection, low-latency embedding models, category-aware semantic caching, user-feedback-driven routing adaptation, hallucination detection, and hierarchical content-safety classification for privacy and jailbreak protection; (2) fleet optimization -- fleet provisioning and energy-efficiency analysis; (3) agentic and multimodal routing -- multimodal agent routing, tool selection, CUA security, and multi-turn context memory and safety; (4) governance and standards -- inference routing protocols and multi-provider API extensions. Each paper tackled a specific problem in LLM inference, but the problems are not independent; for example, fleet provisioning depends on the routing policy, which depends on the workload mix, shifting as organizations adopt agentic and multimodal workloads. This paper distills those results into the Workload-Router-Pool (WRP) architecture, a three-dimensional framework for LLM inference optimization. Workload characterizes what the fleet serves (chat vs. agent, single-turn vs. multi-turn, warm vs. cold, prefill-heavy vs. decode-heavy). Router determines how each request is dispatched (static semantic rules, online bandit adaptation, RL-based model selection, quality-aware cascading). Pool defines where inference runs (homogeneous vs. heterogeneous GPU, disaggregated prefill/decode, KV-cache topology). We map our prior work onto a 3x3 WRP interaction matrix, identify which cells we have covered and which remain open, and propose twenty-one concrete research directions at the intersections, each grounded in our prior measurements, tiered by maturity from engineering-ready to open research.

Large language model (LLM) routers improve the efficiency of multi-model systems by directing each query to the most appropriate model while leveraging the diverse strengths of heterogeneous LLMs. Most existing approaches frame routing as a classification problem based solely on the input query. While this reduces overhead by avoiding inference across all models, it overlooks valuable information that could be gleaned from potential outputs and fails to capture implicit intent or contextual nuances that often emerge only during response generation. These limitations can result in suboptimal routing decisions, particularly for complex or ambiguous queries that require deeper semantic understanding. To address this challenge, we propose Lookahead, a routing framework that "foresees" potential model outputs by predicting their latent representations and uses these predictions to guide model selection, thus enabling more informed routing without full inference. Within this framework, we implement two approaches based on causal and masked language models. Empirical evaluations across seven public benchmarks - spanning instruction following, mathematical reasoning, and code generation - show that Lookahead consistently outperforms existing routing baselines, achieving an average performance gain of 7.7% over the state-of-the-art. Our code is available at https://github.com/huangcb01/lookahead-routing.

Sparse Mixture-of-Experts (SMoE) models enable scaling language models efficiently, but training them remains challenging, as routing can collapse onto few experts and auxiliary load-balancing losses can reduce specialization. Motivated by these hurdles, we study how routing decisions in SMoEs are formed mechanistically. First, we reveal a geometric coupling between routers and their corresponding experts. For a given token, the router weights for the selected expert and the expert weights processing it receive gradients along the same input direction, differing only in scalar coefficients. Thus, matched router--expert directions accumulate the same routed token history. This theoretical coupling also appears empirically in routing dynamics. In a 1B SMoE trained from scratch, higher router scores predict stronger expert neuron activations, showing that routing decisions are mirrored inside the selected expert. Next, we analyze the effects of auxiliary load balancing on the router--expert geometric coupling, showing that such losses break this structure by spreading input-directed gradients across router weights, making distinct router directions nearly three times more similar to each other. Last, we demonstrate the centrality of geometric coupling for effective routing with a parameter-free online K-Means router, in which each expert maintains a running average of the hidden states routed to it and tokens are assigned based on cosine similarity. Compared with auxiliary-loss and loss-free balancing, this router achieves the lowest load imbalance with only a modest perplexity increase, indicating that geometric coupling captures a substantial part of what the router learns. Overall, our results explain how routers form assignment geometry that supports an effective division of labor.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as a crucial approach for enhancing the capabilities of large language models. However, in Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models, the routing mechanism often introduces instability, even leading to catastrophic RL training collapse. We analyze the training-inference consistency of MoE models and identify a notable discrepancy in routing behaviors between the two phases. Moreover, even under identical conditions, the routing framework can yield divergent expert selections across repeated forward passes. To address this foundational inconsistency, we propose Rollout Routing Replay (R3), a method that records routing distributions from the inference engine and replays them during training. R3 significantly reduces training-inference policy KL divergence and mitigates extreme discrepancies without compromising training speed. Extensive experiments on various settings confirm that R3 succeeds in stabilizing RL training, preventing collapse and outperforming methods such as GSPO and TIS. We believe this work can offer a new solution for stabilizing RL in MoE models.

Multi-agent debates have been introduced to improve the accuracy of Large Language Models (LLMs) by having multiple agents discuss solutions to a problem over several rounds of debate. However, models often generate incorrect yet confident-sounding responses, which can mislead others. This issue arises partly because agents do not consider how confident their peers are. To address this, we propose DebUnc, a debate framework that uses uncertainty metrics to assess agent confidence. Confidence is then conveyed through a modified attention mechanism that adjusts token weights, or through textual prompts. Evaluations across benchmarks show that attention-based methods are particularly effective and that performance continues to improve as uncertainty estimation becomes more reliable. The code is available at https://github.com/lukeyoffe/debunc.

The Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) technique can scale up the model size of Transformers with an affordable computational overhead. We point out that existing learning-to-route MoE methods suffer from the routing fluctuation issue, i.e., the target expert of the same input may change along with training, but only one expert will be activated for the input during inference. The routing fluctuation tends to harm sample efficiency because the same input updates different experts but only one is finally used. In this paper, we propose StableMoE with two training stages to address the routing fluctuation problem. In the first training stage, we learn a balanced and cohesive routing strategy and distill it into a lightweight router decoupled from the backbone model. In the second training stage, we utilize the distilled router to determine the token-to-expert assignment and freeze it for a stable routing strategy. We validate our method on language modeling and multilingual machine translation. The results show that StableMoE outperforms existing MoE methods in terms of both convergence speed and performance.

We introduce directional routing, a lightweight mechanism that gives each transformer attention head learned suppression directions controlled by a shared router, at 3.9% parameter cost. We train a 433M-parameter model alongside an identical baseline in a single run, then trace the resulting circuits through mechanistic interpretability. Routing becomes the model's dominant computational pathway. Disabling it collapses factual recall to near-zero probability across all 8 test prompts and drops induction accuracy from 93.4% to 0.0%. Knocking out individual attention heads has negligible effect: the primary mover head's removal actually increases target probability, and induction heads retain 98.6% accuracy without their strongest member. The coordination mechanism is irreplaceable; the components it coordinates are not. The model also self-organizes, without explicit pressure, into two regimes: domain-adaptive routing in early layers and fixed syntactic pruning in late layers, where the least-varying layer is the most critical (+42.6 PPL when disabled). Routing reduces perplexity 31-56% relative to the baseline, though downstream multiple-choice benchmarks do not yet reflect these gains.

Large language models' significant advances in capabilities are accompanied by significant increases in inference costs. Model routing is a simple technique for reducing inference cost, wherein one maintains a pool of candidate LLMs, and learns to route each prompt to the smallest feasible LLM. Existing works focus on learning a router for a fixed pool of LLMs. In this paper, we consider the problem of dynamic routing, where new, previously unobserved LLMs are available at test time. We propose a new approach to this problem that relies on representing each LLM as a feature vector, derived based on predictions on a set of representative prompts. Based on this, we detail two effective strategies, relying on cluster-based routing and a learned cluster map respectively. We prove that these strategies are estimates of a theoretically optimal routing rule, and provide an excess risk bound to quantify their errors. Experiments on a range of public benchmarks show the effectiveness of the proposed strategies in routing amongst more than 30 unseen LLMs.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) achieve remarkable performance by explicitly generating multi-step chains of thought, but this capability incurs substantial inference latency and computational cost. Collaborative inference offers a promising solution by selectively allocating work between lightweight and large models, yet a fundamental challenge remains: determining when a reasoning step requires the capacity of a large model or the efficiency of a small model. Existing routing strategies either rely on local token probabilities or post-hoc verification, introducing significant inference overhead. In this work, we propose a novel perspective on step-wise collaboration: the difficulty of a reasoning step can be inferred from its very first token. Inspired by the "Aha Moment" phenomenon in LRMs, we show that the entropy of the initial token serves as a strong predictor of step difficulty. Building on this insight, we introduce GlimpRouter, a training-free step-wise collaboration framework. GlimpRouter employs a lightweight model to generate only the first token of each reasoning step and routes the step to a larger model only when the initial token entropy exceeds a threshold. Experiments on multiple benchmarks demonstrate that our approach significantly reduces inference latency while preserving accuracy. For instance, GlimpRouter attains a substantial 10.7% improvement in accuracy while reducing inference latency by 25.9% compared to a standalone large model on AIME25. These results suggest a simple yet effective mechanism for reasoning: allocating computation based on a glimpse of thought rather than full-step evaluation.

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) achieve strong performance through instruction tuning, but real-world deployment requires them to continually expand their capabilities, making Multimodal Continual Instruction Tuning (MCIT) essential. Recent methods leverage sparse expert routing to promote task specialization, but we find that the expert routing process suffers from drift as the data distribution evolves. For example, a grounding query that previously activated localization experts may instead be routed to irrelevant experts after learning OCR tasks. Meanwhile, the grounding-related experts can be overwritten by new tasks and lose their original functionality. Such failure reflects two problems: router drift, where expert selection becomes inconsistent over time, and expert drift, where shared experts are overwritten across tasks. Therefore, we propose StAbilized Mixture-of-Experts (SAME) for MCIT. To address router drift, SAME stabilizes expert selection by decomposing routing dynamics into orthogonal subspaces and updating only task-relevant directions. To mitigate expert drift, we regulate expert updates via curvature-aware scaling using historical input covariance in a rehearsal-free manner. SAME also introduces adaptive expert activation to freeze selected experts during training, reducing redundant computation and cross-task interference. Extensive experiments demonstrate its SOTA performance.

Large language models (LLMs) tend to verbalize confidence scores that are largely detached from their actual accuracy, yet the geometric relationship governing this behavior remain poorly understood. In this work, we present a mechanistic interpretability analysis of verbalized confidence, using linear probes and contrastive activation addition (CAA) steering to show that calibration and verbalized confidence signals are encoded linearly but are orthogonal to one another -- a finding consistent across three open-weight models and four datasets. Interestingly, when models are prompted to simultaneously reason through a problem and verbalize a confidence score, the reasoning process disrupts the verbalized confidence direction, exacerbating miscalibration. We term this the "Reasoning Contamination Effect." Leveraging this insight, we introduce a two-stage adaptive steering pipeline that reads the model's internal accuracy estimate and steers verbalized output to match it, substantially improving calibration alignment across all evaluated models.

Diffusion language models decode text by iteratively denoising masked token sequences, making the choice of which positions to decode a central inference-time decision. Most training-free decoding strategies use model confidence for position selection, assuming that high-confidence positions are ready to be decoded. In this work, we revisit this assumption by studying when confidence misleads fully non-autoregressive (fully non-AR) decoding. EOT tokens can receive high confidence and cause incomplete generation; inserting a suffix anchor can mitigate this issue but introduces local overconfidence near the anchor, causing anchor-adjacent tokens to be decoded too early. To address these issues, we propose Suffix-Anchored Confidence Modulation, a simple training-free method that inserts a short suffix anchor to encourage response completion and modulates confidence near the anchor according to decoding progress. This preserves the response-completion benefit of suffix anchoring while reducing premature decoding of anchor-adjacent tokens. Across text-only reasoning, vision-language reasoning, and code-generation benchmarks, our method consistently improves confidence-based fully non-AR decoding, outperforms explicit EOT suppression, and preserves the parallel decoding advantage of fully non-AR generation.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) layers increase model capacity by activating only a small subset of experts per token, and typically rely on a learned router to map hidden states to expert assignments. In this work, we ask whether a dedicated learned router is strictly necessary in the MoE settings we study. We propose Self-Routing, a parameter-free routing mechanism that uses a designated subspace of the token hidden state directly as expert logits, eliminating the router projection entirely while leaving the rest of the MoE layer unchanged. We evaluate Self-Routing on GPT-2-scale language modeling and ImageNet-1K classification by comparing it against a standard learned router, random-routing baselines, and dense non-MoE baselines. Our results show that Self-Routing remains competitive with the learned-router baseline while removing all dedicated routing parameters, and yields more balanced expert utilization, with about 17 % higher average normalized routing entropy and no explicit load-balancing loss. On ImageNet-1K with DeiT-S/16, Self-Routing also slightly improves over the corresponding learned-router MoE. These findings suggest that effective MoE routing can emerge from the hidden representation itself without requiring a separate learned router module.

There is a growing literature on reasoning by large language models (LLMs), but the discussion on the uncertainty in their responses is still lacking. Our aim is to assess the extent of confidence that LLMs have in their answers and how it correlates with accuracy. Confidence is measured (i) qualitatively in terms of persistence in keeping their answer when prompted to reconsider, and (ii) quantitatively in terms of self-reported confidence score. We investigate the performance of three LLMs -- GPT4o, GPT4-turbo and Mistral -- on two benchmark sets of questions on causal judgement and formal fallacies and a set of probability and statistical puzzles and paradoxes. Although the LLMs show significantly better performance than random guessing, there is a wide variability in their tendency to change their initial answers. There is a positive correlation between qualitative confidence and accuracy, but the overall accuracy for the second answer is often worse than for the first answer. There is a strong tendency to overstate the self-reported confidence score. Confidence is only partially explained by the underlying token-level probability. The material effects of prompting on qualitative confidence and the strong tendency for overconfidence indicate that current LLMs do not have any internally coherent sense of confidence.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in high-stakes settings, where overconfident responses can mislead users. Reliable confidence estimation has been shown to enhance trust and task accuracy. Yet existing methods face practical barriers: logits are often hidden, multi-sampling is computationally expensive, and verbalized numerical uncertainty (e.g., giving a 0-100 score) deviates from natural communication. We revisit linguistic confidence (LC), where models express uncertainty through hedging language (e.g., probably, might), offering a lightweight and human-centered alternative. To advance this direction, we (1) release the first diverse, large-scale dataset of hedging expressions with human-annotated confidence scores, and (2) propose a lightweight mapper that converts hedges into confidence scores at near-zero cost. Building on these resources, we (3) conduct the first systematic study of LC across modern LLMs and QA benchmarks, revealing that while most LLMs underperform in expressing reliable LC, carefully designed prompting achieves competitive calibration and discriminability. Finally, we (4) introduce a fine-tuning framework that further improves LC reliability. Taken together, our work positions linguistic confidence as a scalable, efficient, and human-aligned approach to LLM uncertainty estimation, and calls for deeper exploration of this promising yet underexplored direction.

Modern Large Language Models achieve impressive reasoning capabilities with long Chain of Thoughts, but they incur substantial computational cost during inference, and this motivates techniques to improve the performance-cost ratio. Among these techniques, Speculative Decoding accelerates inference by employing a fast but inaccurate draft model to autoregressively propose tokens, which are then verified in parallel by a more capable target model. However, due to unnecessary rejections caused by token mismatches in semantically equivalent steps, traditional token-level Speculative Decoding struggles in reasoning tasks. Although recent works have shifted to step-level semantic verification, which improve efficiency by accepting or rejecting entire reasoning steps, existing step-level methods still regenerate many rejected steps with little improvement, wasting valuable target compute. To address this challenge, we propose Arbitrage, a novel step-level speculative generation framework that routes generation dynamically based on the relative advantage between draft and target models. Instead of applying a fixed acceptance threshold, Arbitrage uses a lightweight router trained to predict when the target model is likely to produce a meaningfully better step. This routing approximates an ideal Arbitrage Oracle that always chooses the higher-quality step, achieving near-optimal efficiency-accuracy trade-offs. Across multiple mathematical reasoning benchmarks, Arbitrage consistently surpasses prior step-level Speculative Decoding baselines, reducing inference latency by up to sim2times at matched accuracy.

Existing industrial-scale navigation applications contend with massive road networks, typically employing two main categories of approaches for route planning. The first relies on precomputed road costs for optimal routing and heuristic algorithms for generating alternatives, while the second, generative methods, has recently gained significant attention. However, the former struggles with personalization and route diversity, while the latter fails to meet the efficiency requirements of large-scale real-time scenarios. To address these limitations, we propose GenMRP, a generative framework for multi-route planning. To ensure generation efficiency, GenMRP first introduces a skeleton-to-capillary approach that dynamically constructs a relevant sub-network significantly smaller than the full road network. Within this sub-network, routes are generated iteratively. The first iteration identifies the optimal route, while the subsequent ones generate alternatives that balance quality and diversity using the newly proposed correctional boosting approach. Each iteration incorporates road features, user historical sequences, and previously generated routes into a Link Cost Model to update road costs, followed by route generation using the Dijkstra algorithm. Extensive experiments show that GenMRP achieves state-of-the-art performance with high efficiency in both offline and online environments. To facilitate further research, we have publicly released the training and evaluation dataset. GenMRP has been fully deployed in a real-world navigation app, demonstrating its effectiveness and benefits.

Multi-Agent Systems(MAS) have become a powerful paradigm for building high performance intelligent applications. Within these systems, the router responsible for determining which expert agents should handle a given query plays a crucial role in overall performance. Existing routing strategies generally fall into two categories: performance routing, which balances latency and cost across models of different sizes, and task routing, which assigns queries to domain-specific experts to improve accuracy. In real-world enterprise applications, task routing is more suitable; however, most existing approaches rely on static single-label decisions, which introduce two major limitations: (i) difficulty in seamlessly integrating new agents as business domains expand, and (ii) routing conflicts caused by overlapping agent capabilities, ultimately degrading accuracy and robustness.To address these challenges, we propose TCAndon-Router(TCAR): an adaptive reasoning router for multi-agent collaboration. Unlike traditional routers, TCAR supports dynamic agent onboarding and first generates a natural-language reasoning chain before predicting a set of candidate agents capable of handling the query. In addition, we design a collaborative execution pipeline in which selected agents independently produce responses, which are then aggregated and refined into a single high-quality response by a dedicated Refining Agent.Experiments on public datasets and real enterprise data demonstrate that TCAR significantly improves routing accuracy, reduces routing conflicts, and remains robust in ambiguous scenarios. We have released TCAR at https://huggingface.co/tencent/TCAndon-Router to support future research on explainable and collaborative multi-agent routing.

Recent progress in large language models (LLMs) has enabled them to express their confidence in natural language, enhancing transparency and reliability. However, their confidence often exhibits overconfidence, the cause of which remains poorly understood. In this work, we conduct a detailed analysis of the dynamics underlying verbalized confidence and identify answer-independence as a key factor, defined as the model's failure to condition confidence on its own answer. To address this, we propose ADVICE (Answer-Dependent Verbalized Confidence Estimation), a fine-tuning framework that facilitates answer-grounded confidence estimation. Extensive experiments show that ADVICE substantially improves confidence calibration while preserving task performance. Further analyses confirm that ADVICE strengthens answer-groundedness, leading to more balanced and well-calibrated confidence distributions. Our findings shed light on the origin of overconfidence and establish a framework for more trustworthy confidence verbalization.

Multi-agent systems built on large language models (LLMs) require many coordination choices that are difficult to fix a priori: which skill protocol to invoke, which agent role should perform a subtask, which model to bind to each role, how roles should interact, when to use retrieval or verification, and when to omit a step entirely. These choices interact with task regime and operational constraints, so static pipelines and one-off model comparisons provide only a limited view of the design space. This paper introduces AgensFlow, an open-source framework that treats multi-agent coordination as an online policy-learning problem under partial observability. The framework makes coordination decisions observable and learnable from repeated trajectories, rather than treating skill, role, model, topology, and evaluation choices as fixed pipeline design. AgensFlow is evaluated on two corpora: distributed-systems incident tasks and security-advisory tasks. The evaluation shows three main results: learned routing reaches a higher-quality operating point than a fixed pipeline baseline on coordination-heavy classes; skip:X isolates topology compression as a meaningful part of the substrate; and warm-started policy graphs can reduce exploration cost while preserving plateau quality. Overall, the results support that learned, auditable routing can improve coordination-heavy multi-agent workflows over static wiring.

Independently trained domain specialists can be fused post-hoc into a single model that outperforms any individual specialist, and the gain is predictable: gain = 0.82 x divergence - 2.72 (R^2 = 0.856, n=6, 3-26% divergence). This enables practitioners to estimate cooperative value before committing compute. Below ~3.3% divergence, gains approach zero.In the KALAVAI protocol, contributors fine-tune copies of a shared checkpoint independently, then submit for lightweight MoE routing (500 steps). Gains are consistent: +7.72% at 410M (+/-0.02%, 3 seeds), +7.49% at 1B (+/-0.01%, 3 seeds), +6.53% at 6.9B, each over the best specialist. The router matches domain-oracle routing within <10^{-5} nats. Cross-lingual fusion (Tamil/Yoruba/Welsh/Code) achieves +21.76%, with Yoruba perplexity falling 41.9 to 7.7. A 20-contributor federation achieves +16.71% (+/-0.07pp, 3 seeds).Three requirements bound the protocol. Shared initialisation is necessary: checkpoint mismatch degrades routing. Frozen layers are optional below ~10,000 steps and beneficial beyond. Learned routing is essential: uniform averaging degrades by -1.2% vs. best specialist, while any trained router achieves oracle-optimal assignment.

Large Language Model (LLM)-driven Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) have demonstrated strong capability in complex reasoning and tool use, and heterogeneous agent pools further broaden the quality--cost trade-off space. Despite these advances, real-world deployment is often constrained by high inference cost, latency, and limited transparency, which hinders scalable and efficient routing. Existing routing strategies typically rely on expensive LLM-based selectors or static policies, and offer limited controllability for semantic-aware routing under dynamic loads and mixed intents, often resulting in unstable performance and inefficient resource utilization. To address these limitations, we propose AMRO-S, an efficient and interpretable routing framework for Multi-Agent Systems (MAS). AMRO-S models MAS routing as a semantic-conditioned path selection problem, enhancing routing performance through three key mechanisms: First, it leverages a supervised fine-tuned (SFT) small language model for intent inference, providing a low-overhead semantic interface for each query; second, it decomposes routing memory into task-specific pheromone specialists, reducing cross-task interference and optimizing path selection under mixed workloads; finally, it employs a quality-gated asynchronous update mechanism to decouple inference from learning, optimizing routing without increasing latency. Extensive experiments on five public benchmarks and high-concurrency stress tests demonstrate that AMRO-S consistently improves the quality--cost trade-off over strong routing baselines, while providing traceable routing evidence through structured pheromone patterns.

Current motion-controlled image-to-video generation models rigidly follow user-provided trajectories that are often sparse, imprecise, and causally incomplete. Such reliance often yields unnatural or implausible outcomes, especially by missing secondary causal consequences. To address this, we introduce MotiMotion, a novel framework that reformulates motion control as a reasoning-then-generation problem. To encourage causally grounded and commonsense-consistent interactions, we leverage a training-free vision-language reasoner to refine image-space coordinates of primary trajectories and to hallucinate plausible secondary motions. To further improve motion naturalness, we propose a confidence-aware control scheme that modulates guidance strength, enabling the model to closely follow high-confidence plans while correcting artifacts under low-confidence inputs with its internal generative priors. To support systematic evaluation, we curate a new image-to-video benchmark, MotiBench, consisting of interaction-centric scenes where new events are triggered by motion. Both VLM-based evaluation and a human study on MotiBench demonstrate that MotiMotion produces videos with more plausible object behaviors and interaction, and is preferred over existing approaches.

Cost-aware routing dynamically dispatches user queries to models of varying capability to balance performance and inference cost. However, the routing strategy introduces a new security concern that adversaries may manipulate the router to consistently select expensive high-capability models. Existing routing attacks depend on either white-box access or heuristic prompts, rendering them ineffective in real-world black-box scenarios. In this work, we propose R^2A, which aims to mislead black-box LLM routers to expensive models via adversarial suffix optimization. Specifically, R^2A deploys a hybrid ensemble surrogate router to mimic the black-box router. A suffix optimization algorithm is further adapted for the ensemble-based surrogate. Extensive experiments on multiple open-source and commercial routing systems demonstrate that {R^2A} significantly increases the routing rate to expensive models on queries of different distributions. Code and examples: https://github.com/thcxiker/R2A-Attack.

End-to-end vision-based imitation learning has demonstrated promising results in autonomous driving by learning control commands directly from expert demonstrations. However, traditional approaches rely on either regressionbased models, which provide precise control but lack confidence estimation, or classification-based models, which offer confidence scores but suffer from reduced precision due to discretization. This limitation makes it challenging to quantify the reliability of predicted actions and apply corrections when necessary. In this work, we introduce a dual-head neural network architecture that integrates both regression and classification heads to improve decision reliability in imitation learning. The regression head predicts continuous driving actions, while the classification head estimates confidence, enabling a correction mechanism that adjusts actions in low-confidence scenarios, enhancing driving stability. We evaluate our approach in a closed-loop setting within the CARLA simulator, demonstrating its ability to detect uncertain actions, estimate confidence, and apply real-time corrections. Experimental results show that our method reduces lane deviation and improves trajectory accuracy by up to 50%, outperforming conventional regression-only models. These findings highlight the potential of classification-guided confidence estimation in enhancing the robustness of vision-based imitation learning for autonomous driving. The source code is available at https://github.com/ElaheDlv/Confidence_Aware_IL.

With the rapid proliferation of large language models (LLMs) -- each optimized for different strengths, style, or latency/cost profile -- routing has become an essential technique to operationalize the use of different models. However, existing LLM routing approaches are limited in two key ways: they evaluate performance using benchmarks that often fail to capture human preferences driven by subjective evaluation criteria, and they typically select from a limited pool of models. In this work, we propose a preference-aligned routing framework that guides model selection by matching queries to user-defined domains (e.g., travel) or action types (e.g., image editing) -- offering a practical mechanism to encode preferences in routing decisions. Specifically, we introduce Arch-Router, a compact 1.5B model that learns to map queries to domain-action preferences for model routing decisions. Our approach also supports seamlessly adding new models for routing without requiring retraining or architectural modifications. Experiments on conversational datasets demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) results in matching queries with human preferences, outperforming top proprietary models. Our approach captures subjective evaluation criteria and makes routing decisions more transparent and flexible. Our model is available at: https://huggingface.co/katanemo/Arch-Router-1.5B.

The rapid growth of large language models (LLMs) with diverse capabilities, costs, and domains has created a critical need for intelligent model selection at inference time. While smaller models suffice for routine queries, complex tasks demand more capable models. However, static model deployment does not account for the complexity and domain of incoming queries, leading to suboptimal performance and increased costs. Dynamic routing systems that adaptively select models based on query characteristics have emerged as a solution to this challenge. We provide a systematic analysis of state-of-the-art multi-LLM routing and cascading approaches. In contrast to mixture-of-experts architectures, which route within a single model, we study routing across multiple independently trained LLMs. We cover diverse routing paradigms, including query difficulty, human preferences, clustering, uncertainty quantification, reinforcement learning, multimodality, and cascading. For each paradigm, we analyze representative methods and examine key trade-offs. Beyond taxonomy, we introduce a conceptual framework that characterizes routing systems along three dimensions: when decisions are made, what information is used, and how they are computed. This perspective highlights that practical systems are often compositional, integrating multiple paradigms under operational constraints. Our analysis demonstrates that effective multi-LLM routing requires balancing competing objectives. Choosing the optimal routing strategy depends on deployment and computational constraints. Well-designed routing systems can outperform even the most powerful individual models by strategically leveraging specialized capabilities across models while maximizing efficiency gains. Meanwhile, open challenges remain in developing routing mechanisms that generalize across diverse architectures, modalities, and applications.

The Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP) is a widely studied combinatorial optimization problem and has been applied to various practical problems. While the explainability for VRP is significant for improving the reliability and interactivity in practical VRP applications, it remains unexplored. In this paper, we propose RouteExplainer, a post-hoc explanation framework that explains the influence of each edge in a generated route. Our framework realizes this by rethinking a route as the sequence of actions and extending counterfactual explanations based on the action influence model to VRP. To enhance the explanation, we additionally propose an edge classifier that infers the intentions of each edge, a loss function to train the edge classifier, and explanation-text generation by Large Language Models (LLMs). We quantitatively evaluate our edge classifier on four different VRPs. The results demonstrate its rapid computation while maintaining reasonable accuracy, thereby highlighting its potential for deployment in practical applications. Moreover, on the subject of a tourist route, we qualitatively evaluate explanations generated by our framework. This evaluation not only validates our framework but also shows the synergy between explanation frameworks and LLMs. See https://ntt-dkiku.github.io/xai-vrp for our code, datasets, models, and demo.

Route Recommendation (RR) is a core task in route planning within online navigation applications, aiming to recommend the optimal route among candidate routes to users. Industrially, RR adopts the two-stage recall-and-rank framework instead of traditional route planning algorithms primarily for computational efficiency. However, RR fundamentally differs from traditional recommendation systems that follow this paradigm. First, a primary challenge is that route items cannot be assigned unique identifiers. Additionally, RR fundamentally differs from traditional recommendation systems in its approach to feature interaction. These differences render conventional recommendation approaches inadequate for route recommendation scenarios, necessitating specialized methods that can effectively handle route-specific challenges. To address these challenges, we propose a novel method called Comprehensive Comparison Network (CCN) for route recommendation. CCN constructs comparative features by comparing non-overlapping segments between route pairs, enabling difference learning without the infinite scalability issues of ID embeddings. Furthermore, CCN employs a specially designed Comprehensive Comparison Block (CCB) that differs from previous item attention methods to achieve effective cross-interaction between routes using comparison-level features. Moreover, we develop an interpretable Pair Scoring Network (PSN) for route recommendation and introduce a more comprehensive route recommendation dataset to advance research in this field. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, and CCN has been successfully deployed in AMAP for over a year, demonstrating its value in route recommendation.

Empowering large language models to accurately express confidence in their answers is essential for trustworthy decision-making. Previous confidence elicitation methods, which primarily rely on white-box access to internal model information or model fine-tuning, have become less suitable for LLMs, especially closed-source commercial APIs. This leads to a growing need to explore the untapped area of black-box approaches for LLM uncertainty estimation. To better break down the problem, we define a systematic framework with three components: prompting strategies for eliciting verbalized confidence, sampling methods for generating multiple responses, and aggregation techniques for computing consistency. We then benchmark these methods on two key tasks-confidence calibration and failure prediction-across five types of datasets (e.g., commonsense and arithmetic reasoning) and five widely-used LLMs including GPT-4 and LLaMA 2 Chat. Our analysis uncovers several key insights: 1) LLMs, when verbalizing their confidence, tend to be overconfident, potentially imitating human patterns of expressing confidence. 2) As model capability scales up, both calibration and failure prediction performance improve. 3) Employing our proposed strategies, such as human-inspired prompts, consistency among multiple responses, and better aggregation strategies can help mitigate this overconfidence from various perspectives. 4) Comparisons with white-box methods indicate that while white-box methods perform better, the gap is narrow, e.g., 0.522 to 0.605 in AUROC. Despite these advancements, none of these techniques consistently outperform others, and all investigated methods struggle in challenging tasks, such as those requiring professional knowledge, indicating significant scope for improvement. We believe this study can serve as a strong baseline and provide insights for eliciting confidence in black-box LLMs.

Sparse mixture of experts (SMoE) offers an appealing solution to scale up the model complexity beyond the mean of increasing the network's depth or width. However, we argue that effective SMoE training remains challenging because of the suboptimal routing process where experts that perform computation do not directly contribute to the routing process. In this work, we propose competition, a novel mechanism to route tokens to experts with the highest neural response. Theoretically, we show that the competition mechanism enjoys a better sample efficiency than the traditional softmax routing. Furthermore, we develop CompeteSMoE, a simple yet effective algorithm to train large language models by deploying a router to learn the competition policy, thus enjoying strong performances at a low training overhead. Our extensive empirical evaluations on both the visual instruction tuning and language pre-training tasks demonstrate the efficacy, robustness, and scalability of CompeteSMoE compared to state-of-the-art SMoE strategies. We have made the implementation available at: https://github.com/Fsoft-AIC/CompeteSMoE. This work is an improved version of the previous study at arXiv:2402.02526

As the large language model (LLM) ecosystem expands, individual models exhibit varying capabilities across queries, benchmarks, and domains, motivating the development of LLM routing. While prior work has largely focused on router mechanism design, LLM profiles, which capture model capabilities, remain underexplored. In this work, we ask: How does LLM profile design affect routing performance across different routers? Addressing this question helps clarify the role of profiles in routing, disentangle profile design from router design, and enable fairer comparison and more principled development of routing systems. To this end, we view LLM profiling as a structured information integration problem over heterogeneous interaction histories. We develop a general design space of LLM profiles, named RouteProfile, along four key dimensions: organizational form, representation type, aggregation depth, and learning configuration. Through systematic evaluation across three representative routers under both standard and new-LLM generalization settings, we show that: (1) structured profiles consistently outperform flat ones; (2) query-level signals are more reliable than coarse domain-level signals; and (3) generalization to newly introduced models benefits most from structured profiles under trainable configurations. Overall, our work highlights LLM profile design as an important direction for future routing research.

For large language models (LLMs) to be trusted by humans they need to be well-calibrated in the sense that they can accurately assess and communicate how likely it is that their predictions are correct. Recent work has focused on the quality of internal LLM confidence assessments, but the question remains of how well LLMs can communicate this internal model confidence to human users. This paper explores the disparity between external human confidence in an LLM's responses and the internal confidence of the model. Through experiments involving multiple-choice questions, we systematically examine human users' ability to discern the reliability of LLM outputs. Our study focuses on two key areas: (1) assessing users' perception of true LLM confidence and (2) investigating the impact of tailored explanations on this perception. The research highlights that default explanations from LLMs often lead to user overestimation of both the model's confidence and its' accuracy. By modifying the explanations to more accurately reflect the LLM's internal confidence, we observe a significant shift in user perception, aligning it more closely with the model's actual confidence levels. This adjustment in explanatory approach demonstrates potential for enhancing user trust and accuracy in assessing LLM outputs. The findings underscore the importance of transparent communication of confidence levels in LLMs, particularly in high-stakes applications where understanding the reliability of AI-generated information is essential.

Major cloud providers have employed advanced AI-based solutions like large language models to aid humans in identifying the root causes of cloud incidents. Despite the growing prevalence of AI-driven assistants in the root cause analysis process, their effectiveness in assisting on-call engineers is constrained by low accuracy due to the intrinsic difficulty of the task, a propensity for LLM-based approaches to hallucinate, and difficulties in distinguishing these well-disguised hallucinations. To address this challenge, we propose to perform confidence estimation for the predictions to help on-call engineers make decisions on whether to adopt the model prediction. Considering the black-box nature of many LLM-based root cause predictors, fine-tuning or temperature-scaling-based approaches are inapplicable. We therefore design an innovative confidence estimation framework based on prompting retrieval-augmented large language models (LLMs) that demand a minimal amount of information from the root cause predictor. This approach consists of two scoring phases: the LLM-based confidence estimator first evaluates its confidence in making judgments in the face of the current incident that reflects its ``grounded-ness" level in reference data, then rates the root cause prediction based on historical references. An optimization step combines these two scores for a final confidence assignment. We show that our method is able to produce calibrated confidence estimates for predicted root causes, validate the usefulness of retrieved historical data and the prompting strategy as well as the generalizability across different root cause prediction models. Our study takes an important move towards reliably and effectively embedding LLMs into cloud incident management systems.

Large language model (LLM) routing assigns each query to the most suitable model from an ensemble. We introduce LLMRouterBench, a large-scale benchmark and unified framework for LLM routing. It comprises over 400K instances from 21 datasets and 33 models. Moreover, it provides comprehensive metrics for both performance-oriented routing and performance-cost trade-off routing, and integrates 10 representative routing baselines. Using LLMRouterBench, we systematically re-evaluate the field. While confirming strong model complementarity-the central premise of LLM routing-we find that many routing methods exhibit similar performance under unified evaluation, and several recent approaches, including commercial routers, fail to reliably outperform a simple baseline. Meanwhile, a substantial gap remains to the Oracle, driven primarily by persistent model-recall failures. We further show that backbone embedding models have limited impact, that larger ensembles exhibit diminishing returns compared to careful model curation, and that the benchmark also enables latency-aware analysis. All code and data are available at https://github.com/ynulihao/LLMRouterBench.

Model evolution and constant availability of data are two common phenomena in large-scale real-world machine learning applications, e.g. ads and recommendation systems. To adapt, the real-world system typically retrain with all available data and online learn with recently available data to update the models periodically with the goal of better serving performance. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, named Confidence Ranking, which designs the optimization objective as a ranking function with two different models. Our confidence ranking loss allows direct optimization of the logits output for different convex surrogate functions of metrics, e.g. AUC and Accuracy depending on the target task and dataset. Armed with our proposed methods, our experiments show that the introduction of confidence ranking loss can outperform all baselines on the CTR prediction tasks of public and industrial datasets. This framework has been deployed in the advertisement system of JD.com to serve the main traffic in the fine-rank stage.

Machine unlearning (MU) for large language models has become critical for AI safety, yet existing methods fail to generalize to Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures. We identify that traditional unlearning methods exploit MoE's architectural vulnerability: they manipulate routers to redirect queries away from knowledgeable experts rather than erasing knowledge, causing a loss of model utility and superficial forgetting. We propose Geometric Routing Invariance Preservation (GRIP), an algorithm-agnostic framework for unlearning for MoE. Our core contribution is a geometric constraint, implemented by projecting router gradient updates into an expert-specific null-space. Crucially, this decouples routing stability from parameter rigidity: while discrete expert selections remain stable for retained knowledge, the continuous router parameters remain plastic within the null space, allowing the model to undergo necessary internal reconfiguration to satisfy unlearning objectives. This forces the unlearning optimization to erase knowledge directly from expert parameters rather than exploiting the superficial router manipulation shortcut. GRIP functions as an adapter, constraining router parameter updates without modifying the underlying unlearning algorithm. Extensive experiments on large-scale MoE models demonstrate that our adapter eliminates expert selection shift (achieving over 95% routing stability) across all tested unlearning methods while preserving their utility. By preventing existing algorithms from exploiting MoE model's router vulnerability, GRIP adapts existing unlearning research from dense architectures to MoEs.

Mixture of Experts (MoE) has become a key ingredient for scaling large foundation models while keeping inference costs steady. We show that expert routing strategies that have cross-batch dependencies are vulnerable to attacks. Malicious queries can be sent to a model and can affect a model's output on other benign queries if they are grouped in the same batch. We demonstrate this via a proof-of-concept attack in a toy experimental setting.

Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable capabilities, but their broad deployment is limited by significant computational resource demands, particularly energy consumption during inference. Static, one-model-fits-all inference strategies are often inefficient, as they do not exploit the diverse range of available models or adapt to varying query requirements. This paper presents GreenServ, a dynamic, context-aware routing framework that optimizes the trade-off between inference accuracy and energy efficiency. GreenServ extracts lightweight contextual features from each query, including task type, semantic cluster, and text complexity, and routes queries to the most suitable model from a heterogeneous pool, based on observed accuracy and energy usage. We employ a multi-armed bandit approach to learn adaptive routing policies online. This approach operates under partial feedback, eliminates the need for extensive offline calibration, and streamlines the integration of new models into the inference pipeline. We evaluated GreenServ across five benchmark tasks and a pool of 16 contemporary open-access LLMs. Experimental results show that GreenServ consistently outperforms static (single-model) and random baselines. In particular, compared to random routing, GreenServ achieved a 22% increase in accuracy while reducing cumulative energy consumption by 31%. Finally, we evaluated GreenServ with RouterBench, achieving an average accuracy of 71.7% with a peak accuracy of 75.7%. All artifacts are open-source and available here: https://github.com/TZData1/llm-inference-router{GitHub}

Safety alignment is critical for the responsible deployment of large language models (LLMs). As Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures are increasingly adopted to scale model capacity, understanding their safety robustness becomes essential. Existing adversarial attacks, however, have notable limitations. Prompt-based jailbreaks rely on heuristic search and transfer poorly, model intervention methods require privileged access to internal representations, and optimization-based input attacks remain output-centric and are fundamentally limited to MoE models due to the non-differentiable routing mechanism. In this paper, we present RouteHijack, a routing-aware jailbreak for MoE LLMs. Our key insight is that safety behavior is concentrated in a small subset of experts, creating an opportunity to steer model behavior by influencing routing decisions through input optimization. Building on this observation, RouteHijack first performs response-driven expert localization to identify safety-critical and harmful experts by contrasting activations under safe refusals and harmful completions. It then constructs adversarial suffixes with a routing-aware objective that suppresses safety experts, promotes harmful experts, and prevents early-stage refusal during generation. At inference time, the optimized suffix is appended to a malicious prompt, requiring only input access. Across seven MoE LLMs, RouteHijack achieves a 69.3\% average attack success rate (ASR), outperforming prior optimization-based attack by 3.2times. RouteHijack also transfers zero-shot across five sibling MoE variants, raising average ASR from 27.7\% to 61.2\%, and further generalizes to three MoE-based VLMs, increasing average ASR from 2.47\% to 38.7\%. These findings expose a fundamental vulnerability in sparse expert architectures and highlight the need for defenses beyond output-level alignment.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have acquired ubiquitous attention for their performances across diverse domains. Our study here searches through LLMs' cognitive abilities and confidence dynamics. We dive deep into understanding the alignment between their self-assessed confidence and actual performance. We exploit these models with diverse sets of questionnaires and real-world scenarios and extract how LLMs exhibit confidence in their responses. Our findings reveal intriguing instances where models demonstrate high confidence even when they answer incorrectly. This is reminiscent of the Dunning-Kruger effect observed in human psychology. In contrast, there are cases where models exhibit low confidence with correct answers revealing potential underestimation biases. Our results underscore the need for a deeper understanding of their cognitive processes. By examining the nuances of LLMs' self-assessment mechanism, this investigation provides noteworthy revelations that serve to advance the functionalities and broaden the potential applications of these formidable language models.

Language models (LMs) should provide reliable confidence estimates to help users detect mistakes in their outputs and defer to human experts when necessary. Asking a language model to assess its confidence ("Score your confidence from 0-1.") is a natural way of evaluating its uncertainty. However, models struggle to provide absolute assessments of confidence (i.e. judging confidence in answering a question independent of other questions) and the coarse-grained scores they produce are not useful for evaluating the correctness of their answers. We propose relative confidence estimation, where we match up questions against each other and ask the model to make relative judgments of confidence ("Which question are you more confident in answering correctly?"). Treating each question as a "player" in a series of matchups against other questions and the model's preferences as match outcomes, we can use rank aggregation methods like Elo rating and Bradley-Terry to translate the model's confidence preferences into confidence scores. We evaluate relative confidence estimation against absolute confidence estimation and self-consistency confidence methods on five state-of-the-art LMs -- GPT-4, GPT-4o, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, and Llama 3.1 405B -- across 14 challenging STEM, social science, and commonsense reasoning question answering tasks. Our results demonstrate that relative confidence estimation consistently provides more reliable confidence scores than absolute confidence estimation, with average gains of 3.5% in selective classification AUC over direct absolute confidence estimation methods and 1.7% over self-consistency approaches across all models and datasets.

Accurate prediction of pedestrians' future motions is critical for intelligent driving systems. Developing models for this task requires rich datasets containing diverse sets of samples. However, the existing naturalistic trajectory prediction datasets are generally imbalanced in favor of simpler samples and lack challenging scenarios. Such a long-tail effect causes prediction models to underperform on the tail portion of the data distribution containing safety-critical scenarios. Previous methods tackle the long-tail problem using methods such as contrastive learning and class-conditioned hypernetworks. These approaches, however, are not modular and cannot be applied to many machine learning architectures. In this work, we propose a modular model-agnostic framework for trajectory prediction that leverages a specialized mixture of experts. In our approach, each expert is trained with a specialized skill with respect to a particular part of the data. To produce predictions, we utilise a router network that selects the best expert by generating relative confidence scores. We conduct experimentation on common pedestrian trajectory prediction datasets and show that besides achieving state-of-the-art performance, our method significantly performs better on long-tail scenarios. We further conduct ablation studies to highlight the contribution of different proposed components.

VRP (Vehicle Routing Problem) is an NP hard problem, and it has attracted a lot of research interest. In contexts where vehicles have limited carrying capacity, such as volume and weight but needed to deliver items at various locations. Initially before creating a route, each vehicle needs a group of delivery points that are not exceeding their maximum capacity. Drivers tend to deliver only to certain areas. Cluster-based is one of the approaches to give a basis for generating tighter routes. In this paper we propose new algorithms for producing such clusters/groups that do not exceed vehicles maximum capacity. Our basic assumptions are each vehicle originates from a depot, delivers the items to the customers and returns to the depot, also the vehicles are homogeneous. This methods are able to compact sub-areas in each cluster. Computational results demonstrate the effectiveness of our new procedures, which are able to assist users to plan service territories and vehicle routes more efficiently.

Expressing confidence is challenging for embodied agents navigating dynamic multimodal environments, where uncertainty arises from both perception and decision-making processes. We present the first work investigating embodied confidence elicitation in open-ended multimodal environments. We introduce Elicitation Policies, which structure confidence assessment across inductive, deductive, and abductive reasoning, along with Execution Policies, which enhance confidence calibration through scenario reinterpretation, action sampling, and hypothetical reasoning. Evaluating agents in calibration and failure prediction tasks within the Minecraft environment, we show that structured reasoning approaches, such as Chain-of-Thoughts, improve confidence calibration. However, our findings also reveal persistent challenges in distinguishing uncertainty, particularly under abductive settings, underscoring the need for more sophisticated embodied confidence elicitation methods.

Prompt routing dynamically selects the most appropriate large language model from a pool of candidates for each query, optimizing performance while managing costs. As model pools scale to include dozens of frontier models with narrow performance gaps, existing approaches face significant challenges: manually defined task taxonomies cannot capture fine-grained capability distinctions, while monolithic routers struggle to differentiate subtle differences across diverse tasks. We propose a two-stage routing architecture that addresses these limitations through automated fine-grained task discovery and task-aware quality estimation. Our first stage employs graph-based clustering to discover latent task types and trains a classifier to assign prompts to discovered tasks. The second stage uses a mixture-of-experts architecture with task-specific prediction heads for specialized quality estimates. At inference, we aggregate predictions from both stages to balance task-level stability with prompt-specific adaptability. Evaluated on 10 benchmarks with 11 frontier models, our method consistently outperforms existing baselines and surpasses the strongest individual model while incurring less than half its cost.

Sparse Mixture of Experts (SMoE) enables efficient training of large language models by routing input tokens to a select number of experts. However, training SMoE remains challenging due to the issue of representation collapse. Recent studies have focused on improving the router to mitigate this problem, but existing approaches face two key limitations: (1) expert embeddings are significantly smaller than the model's dimension, contributing to representation collapse, and (2) routing each input to the Top-K experts can cause them to learn overly similar features. In this work, we propose a novel approach called Robust Sparse Mixture of Experts via Stochastic Learning (S2MoE), which is a mixture of experts designed to learn from both deterministic and non-deterministic inputs via Learning under Uncertainty. Extensive experiments across various tasks demonstrate that S2MoE achieves performance comparable to other routing methods while reducing computational inference costs by 28%.

Recent advances in masked diffusion models (MDMs) have established them as powerful non-autoregressive alternatives for sequence generation. Nevertheless, our preliminary experiments reveal that the generation quality of MDMs is still highly sensitive to the choice of decoding strategy. In particular, widely adopted uncertainty-based samplers suffer from two key limitations: a lack of global trajectory control and a pronounced bias toward trivial tokens in the early stages of decoding. These shortcomings restrict the full potential of MDMs. In this work, we introduce Position-Aware Confidence-Calibrated Sampling (PC-Sampler), a novel decoding strategy that unifies global trajectory planning with content-aware informativeness maximization. PC-Sampler incorporates a position-aware weighting mechanism to regulate the decoding path and a calibrated confidence score to suppress the premature selection of trivial tokens. Extensive experiments on three advanced MDMs across seven challenging benchmarks-including logical reasoning and planning tasks-demonstrate that PC-Sampler consistently outperforms existing MDM decoding strategies by more than 10% on average, significantly narrowing the performance gap with state-of-the-art autoregressive models. All codes are available at https://github.com/NEUIR/PC-Sampler.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures are often considered a natural fit for continual learning because sparse routing should localize updates and reduce interference, yet MoE Transformers still forget substantially even with sparse, well-balanced expert utilization. We attribute this gap to a pre-routing bottleneck: multi-head attention concatenates head-specific signals into a single post-attention router input, forcing routing to act on co-occurring feature compositions rather than separable head channels. We show that this router input simultaneously encodes multiple separately decodable semantic and structural factors with uneven head support, and that different feature compositions induce weakly aligned parameter-gradient directions; as a result, routing maps many distinct compositions to the same route. We quantify this collision effect via a route-wise effective composition number N_{eff} and find that higher N_{eff} is associated with larger old-task loss increases after continual training. Motivated by these findings, we propose MH-MoE, which performs head-wise routing over sub-representations to increase routing granularity and reduce composition collisions. On TRACE with Qwen3-0.6B/8B, MH-MoE effectively mitigates forgetting, reducing BWT on Qwen3-0.6B from 11.2% (LoRAMoE) to 4.5%.

Efficient use of large language models (LLMs) is critical for deployment at scale: without adaptive routing, systems either overpay for strong models or risk poor performance from weaker ones. Selecting the right LLM for each query is fundamentally an online decision problem: models differ in strengths, prices fluctuate, and users value accuracy and cost differently. Yet most routers are trained offline with labels for all candidate models, an assumption that breaks in deployment, where only the outcome of the chosen model is observed. We bridge this gap with BaRP, a Bandit-feedback Routing with Preferences approach that trains under the same partial-feedback restriction as deployment, while supporting preference-tunable inference: operators can dial the performance/cost trade-off at test time without retraining. Framed as a contextual bandit over prompt features and a user preference vector, our method simulates an online feedback setting during training and adapts its routing decisions to each new prompt, rather than depending on full-information offline supervision. Comprehensive experiments show that our method consistently outperforms strong offline routers by at least 12.46% and the largest LLM by at least 2.45%, and generalizes robustly for unseen tasks.

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated their potential in planning and reasoning tasks, offering a flexible alternative to classical pathfinding algorithms. However, most existing studies focus on LLMs' independent reasoning capabilities and overlook the potential synergy between LLMs and traditional algorithms. To fill this gap, we propose a comprehensive evaluation benchmark GridRoute to assess how LLMs can take advantage of traditional algorithms. We also propose a novel hybrid prompting technique called Algorithm of Thought (AoT), which introduces traditional algorithms' guidance into prompting. Our benchmark evaluates six LLMs ranging from 7B to 72B parameters across various map sizes, assessing their performance in correctness, optimality, and efficiency in grid environments with varying sizes. Our results show that AoT significantly boosts performance across all model sizes, particularly in larger or more complex environments, suggesting a promising approach to addressing path planning challenges. Our code is open-sourced at https://github.com/LinChance/GridRoute.

Test-Time Scaling (TTS) methods for enhancing Large Language Model (LLM) reasoning often incur substantial computational costs, primarily due to extensive reliance on external Process Reward Models (PRMs) or sampling methods like Best-of-N (BoN). This paper introduces Guided by Gut (GG), an efficient self-guided TTS framework that achieves PRM-level performance without costly external verifier models. Our method employs a lightweight tree search guided solely by intrinsic LLM signals, token-level confidence and step novelty. One critical innovation is improving the reliability of internal confidence estimates via a targeted reinforcement learning fine-tuning phase. Empirical evaluations on challenging mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that GG enables smaller models (e.g., 1.5B parameters) to achieve accuracy matching or surpassing significantly larger models (e.g., 32B-70B parameters), while reducing GPU memory usage by up to 10x. Compared to PRM-based methods, GG achieves comparable accuracy with 8x faster inference speeds and 4-5x lower memory usage. Additionally, GG reduces KV cache memory usage by approximately 50% compared to the BoN strategy, facilitating more efficient and practical deployment of TTS techniques.

While large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance across diverse tasks, they fundamentally lack self-awareness and frequently exhibit overconfidence, assigning high confidence scores to incorrect predictions. Accurate confidence estimation is therefore critical for enhancing the trustworthiness and reliability of LLM-generated outputs. However, existing approaches suffer from coarse-grained scoring mechanisms that fail to provide fine-grained, continuous confidence estimates throughout the generation process. To address these limitations, we introduce FineCE, a novel confidence estimation method that delivers accurate, fine-grained confidence scores during text generation. Specifically, we first develop a comprehensive pipeline for constructing training data that effectively captures the underlying probabilistic distribution of LLM responses, and then train a model to predict confidence scores for arbitrary text sequences in a supervised manner. Furthermore, we propose a Backward Confidence Integration (BCI) strategy that leverages information from the subsequent text to enhance confidence estimation for the current sequence during inference. We also introduce three strategies for identifying optimal positions to perform confidence estimation within the generation process. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that FineCE consistently outperforms existing classical confidence estimation methods. Our code and all baselines used in the paper are available on GitHub.

Autonomous Graphical User Interface (GUI) agents rely on accurate GUI grounding, which maps language instructions to on-screen coordinates, to execute user commands. However, current models, whether trained via supervised fine-tuning (SFT) or reinforcement fine-tuning (RFT), lack self-awareness of their capability boundaries, leading to overconfidence and unreliable predictions. We first systematically evaluate probabilistic and verbalized confidence in general and GUI-specific models, revealing a misalignment between confidence and actual accuracy, which is particularly critical in dynamic GUI automation tasks, where single errors can cause task failure. To address this, we propose HyperClick, a novel framework that enhances reliable GUI grounding through uncertainty calibration. HyperClick introduces a dual reward mechanism, combining a binary reward for correct actions with a truncated Gaussian-based spatial confidence modeling, calibrated using the Brier score. This approach jointly optimizes grounding accuracy and confidence reliability, fostering introspective self-criticism. Extensive experiments on seven challenge benchmarks show that HyperClick achieves state-of-the-art performance while providing well-calibrated confidence. By enabling explicit confidence calibration and introspective self-criticism, HyperClick reduces overconfidence and supports more reliable GUI automation.

Mixture-of-Experts layers achieve compute efficiency through weight sparsity: each token activates only a subset of experts. Data sparsity, where each expert processes only a subset of tokens, offers a complementary axis. Expert-choice routing implements data sparsity directly but violates causality in autoregressive models, creating train-inference mismatch. We recover data sparsity within causal token-choice MoE by leveraging zero-compute (null) experts within the routing pool. When a token routes to null experts, those slots consume no compute. The standard load balancing objective trains the model to uniformly use all experts (real and null) therefore creating data sparsity in expectation without the causality violations. We evaluate on vision-language model training, where data heterogeneity is pronounced: vision encoders produce many low-information tokens while text tokens are denser. At matched expected FLOPs, composing weight and data sparsity yields a more compute-efficient frontier than weight sparsity alone, with gains in training loss and downstream performance. The model learns implicit modality-aware allocation, routing vision tokens to null experts more aggressively than text, without explicit modality routing.

Traditional Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) training typically proceeds without any structural priors, effectively requiring the model to simultaneously train expert weights while searching for an optimal routing policy within a vast combinatorial space. This entanglement often leads to sluggish convergence and training instabilities. This paper introduces Grouter, a preemptive routing method that by distilling high-quality structures from fully-trained MoE models and serving as a fixed router for target models. By decoupling structural optimization from weight updates, Grouter significantly accelerates both the speed and quality of model convergence. To ensure the framework's versatility, we also introduce expert folding to adapt Grouter across varying model configurations and expert tuning to rebalance workloads across different data distributions. Furthermore, by leveraging the structural priors provided by preemptive routing, we can implement targeted optimizations to further enhance training throughput. Experiments demonstrate that Grouter achieves superior performance and efficiency which boosts pre-training data utilization by 4.28x and achieves up to 33.5% throughput acceleration, establishing preemptive routing as a fundamental paradigm for scalable MoE training.

LLM routing matters most in long-horizon applications such as coding agents, deep research systems, and computer-use agents, where a single user request triggers many model calls. Routing each call to the cheapest sufficient model can cut costs without sacrificing quality, yet existing router benchmarks evaluate routers only on one-shot prompts. They never expose the router-visible prefix at an intermediate agent step, never test whether a cheaper replacement preserves downstream task success, and often rely on online LLM judges at evaluation time. We introduce TwinRouterBench, a step-level routing benchmark with two tracks. The static track provides 970 router-visible prefixes from 520 instances across SWE-bench, BFCL, mtRAG, QMSum, and PinchBench, each paired with an execution-verified target tier estimated under a released downgrade-and-cascade protocol; scoring is deterministic arithmetic over tier labels, trajectory membership, and token costs, with no online evaluator-side LLM judge. The dynamic track supplies a harness that runs routers on the full 500-case SWE-bench Verified suite; in this paper we report a 100-case held-out evaluation disjoint from the static SWE supervision split. At each LLM call the router selects a concrete model from a locked pool, and success is measured by official task resolution and realized API spend. The two tracks support fast offline iteration followed by end-to-end validation under live agent execution. Code and data are available at https://github.com/CommonstackAI/TwinRouterBench.

Inventory Routing Problem (IRP) is a crucial challenge in supply chain management as it involves optimizing efficient route selection while considering the uncertainty of inventory demand planning. To solve IRPs, usually a two-stage approach is employed, where demand is predicted using machine learning techniques first, and then an optimization algorithm is used to minimize routing costs. Our experiment shows machine learning models fall short of achieving perfect accuracy because inventory levels are influenced by the dynamic business environment, which, in turn, affects the optimization problem in the next stage, resulting in sub-optimal decisions. In this paper, we formulate and propose a decision-focused learning-based approach to solving real-world IRPs. This approach directly integrates inventory prediction and routing optimization within an end-to-end system potentially ensuring a robust supply chain strategy.

Recent advances in handling long sequences have facilitated the exploration of long-context in-context learning (ICL). While much of the existing research emphasizes performance improvements driven by additional in-context examples, the influence on the trustworthiness of generated responses remains underexplored. This paper addresses this gap by investigating how increased examples influence predictive uncertainty, an essential aspect in trustworthiness. We begin by systematically quantifying the uncertainty of ICL with varying shot counts, analyzing the impact of example quantity. Through uncertainty decomposition, we introduce a novel perspective on performance enhancement, with a focus on epistemic uncertainty (EU). Our results reveal that additional examples reduce total uncertainty in both simple and complex tasks by injecting task-specific knowledge, thereby diminishing EU and enhancing performance. For complex tasks, these advantages emerge only after addressing the increased noise and uncertainty associated with longer inputs. Finally, we explore the evolution of internal confidence across layers, unveiling the mechanisms driving the reduction in uncertainty.

Language models are increasingly used in Brazil, but most evaluation remains English-centric. This paper presents Alvorada-Bench, a 4,515-question, text-only benchmark drawn from five Brazilian university entrance examinations. Evaluating twenty models under zero-shot, role-playing, and chain-of-thought prompting, producing 270,900 responses with structured self-reports of confidence, perceived difficulty, and Bloom level. The top models exceed 94% accuracy overall, but accuracy declines on Mathematics and on the engineering oriented IME and ITA exams, indicating persistent weaknesses in multi-step reasoning. Confidence is well calibrated and correlates with perceived difficulty, revealing that models can accurately assess their own certainty capabilities. A cost accuracy analysis shows that high accuracy is achievable at under $2 per 1K tokens. On ENEM 2024 the top model (O3) achieved perfect scores in Languages subject questions while even the weakest system (GPT-4.1 Nano) only underperforms humans in Mathematics. Through exams that distill decades of Brazilian educational priorities and assess millions of students yearly, Alvorada-Bench establishes whether language models can navigate the intersection of language, culture, and reasoning that defines academic readiness in Brazil.

Large language models (LLMs) often produce answers with high certainty even when they are incorrect, making reliable confidence estimation essential for deployment in real-world scenarios. Verbalized confidence, where models explicitly state their confidence in natural language, provides a flexible and user-facing uncertainty signal that can be applied even when token logits are unavailable. However, existing verbalized-confidence methods often optimize answer generation and confidence generation jointly, which can cause confidence-alignment objectives to interfere with answer accuracy. In this work, we propose a decoupled and order-aware framework for verbalized confidence calibration. Our method first generates an answer and then estimates confidence conditioned on the fixed question--answer pair, allowing confidence optimization without directly perturbing the answer-generation process. To align confidence with correctness likelihood, we construct a sampling-based surrogate from multiple model completions and optimize rank-based reinforcement learning objectives that encourage responses with higher estimated correctness likelihood to receive higher verbalized confidence. Experiments on reasoning and knowledge-intensive benchmarks show that our method improves calibration and failure prediction performance while largely preserving answer accuracy. These results demonstrate that verbalized confidence can be more reliably aligned by decoupling confidence estimation from answer generation and optimizing the relative ordering of confidence across responses.

We study LLM routing, the problem of selecting the best model for each query while balancing user satisfaction, model expertise, and inference cost. We formulate routing as contextual dueling bandits, learning from pairwise preference feedback rather than absolute scores, thereby yielding label-efficient and dynamic adaptation. Building on this formulation, we introduce Category-Calibrated Fine-Tuning (CCFT), a representation-learning method that derives model embeddings from offline data using contrastive fine-tuning with categorical weighting. These embeddings enable the practical instantiation of Feel-Good Thompson Sampling for Contextual Dueling Bandits (FGTS.CDB), a theoretically grounded posterior-sampling algorithm. We propose four variants of the categorical weighting that explicitly integrate model quality and cost, and we empirically evaluate the proposed methods on the RouterBench and MixInstruct datasets. Across both benchmarks, our methods achieve lower cumulative regret and faster convergence, with better robustness and performance-cost balance than strong baselines built with a general-purpose OpenAI embedding model.

In large multimodal models (LMMs), the perception of non-language modalities (e.g., visual representations) is usually not on par with the large language models (LLMs)' powerful reasoning capabilities, deterring LMMs' performance on challenging downstream tasks. This weakness has been recently mitigated by replacing the vision encoder with a mixture-of-experts (MoE), which provides rich, multi-granularity, and diverse representations required by diverse downstream tasks. The performance of multimodal MoE largely depends on its router, which reweights and mixes the representations of different experts for each input. However, we find that the end-to-end trained router does not always produce the optimal routing weights for every test sample. To bridge the gap, we propose a novel and efficient method "Re-Routing in Test-Time(R2-T2) that locally optimizes the vector of routing weights in test-time by moving it toward those vectors of the correctly predicted samples in a neighborhood of the test sample. We propose three R2-T2 strategies with different optimization objectives and neighbor-search spaces. R2-T2 consistently and greatly improves state-of-the-art LMMs' performance on challenging benchmarks of diverse tasks, without training any base-model parameters.

This work presents self-rewarding sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), an inference-time scaling algorithm enabling effective sampling of masked diffusion language models (MDLMs). Our algorithm stems from the observation that most existing MDLMs rely on a confidence-based sampling strategy, where only tokens with the highest prediction confidence are preserved at each step. This restricts the generation to a noise-sensitive, greedy decoding paradigm, resulting in an inevitable collapse in the diversity of possible paths. We address this problem by launching multiple interacting diffusion processes in parallel, referred to as particles, for trajectory exploration. Importantly, we introduce the trajectory-level confidence as a self-rewarding signal for assigning particle importance weights. During sampling, particles are iteratively weighted and resampled to systematically steer generation towards globally confident, high-quality samples. Our self-rewarding SMC is verified on various masked diffusion language models and benchmarks, achieving significant improvement without extra training or reward guidance, while effectively converting parallel inference capacity into improved sampling quality. Our code is available at https://github.com/Algolzw/self-rewarding-smc.

Sparse Mixture of Experts (MoE) models, while outperforming dense Large Language Models (LLMs) in terms of performance, face significant deployment challenges during inference due to their high memory demands. Existing offloading techniques, which involve swapping activated and idle experts between the GPU and CPU, often suffer from rigid expert caching mechanisms. These mechanisms fail to adapt to dynamic routing, leading to inefficient cache utilization, or incur prohibitive costs for prediction training. To tackle these inference-specific challenges, we introduce ExpertFlow, a comprehensive system specifically designed to enhance inference efficiency by accommodating flexible routing and enabling efficient expert scheduling between CPU and GPU. This reduces overhead and boosts system performance. Central to our approach is a predictive routing path-based offloading mechanism that utilizes a lightweight predictor to accurately forecast routing paths before computation begins. This proactive strategy allows for real-time error correction in expert caching, significantly increasing cache hit ratios and reducing the frequency of expert transfers, thereby minimizing I/O overhead. Additionally, we implement a dynamic token scheduling strategy that optimizes MoE inference by rearranging input tokens across different batches. This method not only reduces the number of activated experts per batch but also improves computational efficiency. Our extensive experiments demonstrate that ExpertFlow achieves up to 93.72\% GPU memory savings and enhances inference speed by 2 to 10 times compared to baseline methods, highlighting its effectiveness and utility as a robust solution for resource-constrained inference scenarios.

We consider the problem of ranking n experts based on their performances on d tasks. We make a monotonicity assumption stating that for each pair of experts, one outperforms the other on all tasks. We consider the sequential setting where in each round, the learner has access to noisy evaluations of actively chosen pair of expert-task, given the information available up to the actual round. Given a confidence parameter delta in (0, 1), we provide strategies allowing to recover the correct ranking of experts and develop a bound on the total number of queries made by our algorithm that hold with probability at least 1 -- delta. We show that our strategy is adaptive to the complexity of the problem (our bounds are instance dependent), and develop matching lower bounds up to a poly-logarithmic factor. Finally, we adapt our strategy to the relaxed problem of best expert identification and provide numerical simulation consistent with our theoretical results.

Sparse Mixture of Experts (SMoE) has emerged as a key to achieving unprecedented scalability in deep learning. By activating only a small subset of parameters per sample, SMoE achieves an exponential increase in parameter counts while maintaining a constant computational overhead. However, SMoE models are susceptible to routing fluctuations--changes in the routing of a given input to its target expert--at the late stage of model training, leading to model non-robustness. In this work, we unveil the limitation of SMoE through the perspective of the probabilistic graphical model (PGM). Through this PGM framework, we highlight the independence in the expert-selection of tokens, which exposes the model to routing fluctuation and non-robustness. Alleviating this independence, we propose the novel Similarity-Aware (S)MoE, which considers interactions between tokens during expert selection. We then derive a new PGM underlying an (S)MoE-Attention block, going beyond just a single (S)MoE layer. Leveraging the token similarities captured by the attention matrix, we propose the innovative Attention-Aware (S)MoE, which employs the attention matrix to guide the routing of tokens to appropriate experts in (S)MoE. We theoretically prove that Similarity/Attention-Aware routing help reduce the entropy of expert selection, resulting in more stable token routing mechanisms. We empirically validate our models on various tasks and domains, showing significant improvements in reducing routing fluctuations, enhancing accuracy, and increasing model robustness over the baseline MoE-Transformer with token routing via softmax gating.

Large language model (LLM) routing has emerged as a crucial strategy for balancing computational costs with performance by dynamically assigning queries to the most appropriate model based on query complexity. Despite recent advances showing that preference-data-based routers can outperform traditional methods, current evaluation benchmarks remain limited. They largely focus on general model capabilities while overlooking task-specific behaviors and critical concerns such as privacy, safety, and potential backdoor vulnerabilities introduced through preference data. In response, we propose the DSC benchmark: Diverse, Simple, and Categorized, an evaluation framework that categorizes router performance across a broad spectrum of query types, including coding, translation, mathematics, human instructions, general knowledge, and LLM jailbreaking. Additionally, it integrates privacy and safety assessments to reveal hidden risks. Our experiments on three preference-based routers and two commercial counterparts demonstrate that while these systems improve efficiency, they often make suboptimal, category-driven decisions. For instance, a BERT-based router directs all coding and mathematics queries to the most powerful LLM even when simpler models would suffice, while routing jailbreaking attempts to weaker models, thereby elevating safety risks.

Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) offers a powerful and general framework for learning humans' latent preferences in route recommendation, yet no approach has successfully addressed planetary-scale problems with hundreds of millions of states and demonstration trajectories. In this paper, we introduce scaling techniques based on graph compression, spatial parallelization, and improved initialization conditions inspired by a connection to eigenvector algorithms. We revisit classic IRL methods in the routing context, and make the key observation that there exists a trade-off between the use of cheap, deterministic planners and expensive yet robust stochastic policies. This insight is leveraged in Receding Horizon Inverse Planning (RHIP), a new generalization of classic IRL algorithms that provides fine-grained control over performance trade-offs via its planning horizon. Our contributions culminate in a policy that achieves a 16-24% improvement in route quality at a global scale, and to the best of our knowledge, represents the largest published study of IRL algorithms in a real-world setting to date. We conclude by conducting an ablation study of key components, presenting negative results from alternative eigenvalue solvers, and identifying opportunities to further improve scalability via IRL-specific batching strategies.

Reliable deployment of large language models (LLMs) requires accurate uncertainty estimation. Existing methods are predominantly answer-first, producing confidence only after generating an answer, which measure the correctness of a specific response and limits practical usability. We study a confidence-first paradigm, where the model outputs its confidence before answering, interpreting this score as the model's probability of answering the question correctly under its current policy. We propose CoCA(Co-optimized Confidence and Answers), a GRPO reinforcement learning framework that jointly optimizes confidence calibration and answer accuracy via segmented credit assignment. By assigning separate rewards and group-relative advantages to confidence and answer segments, CoCA enables stable joint optimization and avoids reward hacking. Experiments across math, code, and factual QA benchmarks show improved calibration and uncertainty discrimination while preserving answer quality, thereby enabling a broader range of downstream applications.

Estimating uncertainty or confidence in the responses of a model can be significant in evaluating trust not only in the responses, but also in the model as a whole. In this paper, we explore the problem of estimating confidence for responses of large language models (LLMs) with simply black-box or query access to them. We propose a simple and extensible framework where, we engineer novel features and train a (interpretable) model (viz. logistic regression) on these features to estimate the confidence. We empirically demonstrate that our simple framework is effective in estimating confidence of flan-ul2, llama-13b and mistral-7b with it consistently outperforming existing black-box confidence estimation approaches on benchmark datasets such as TriviaQA, SQuAD, CoQA and Natural Questions by even over 10% (on AUROC) in some cases. Additionally, our interpretable approach provides insight into features that are predictive of confidence, leading to the interesting and useful discovery that our confidence models built for one LLM generalize zero-shot across others on a given dataset.

Recent works show that assembling multiple off-the-shelf large language models (LLMs) can harness their complementary abilities. To achieve this, routing is a promising method, which learns a router to select the most suitable LLM for each query. However, existing routing models are ineffective when multiple LLMs perform well for a query. To address this problem, in this paper, we propose a method called query-based Router by Dual Contrastive learning (RouterDC). The RouterDC model consists of an encoder and LLM embeddings, and we propose two contrastive learning losses to train the RouterDC model. Experimental results show that RouterDC is effective in assembling LLMs and largely outperforms individual top-performing LLMs as well as existing routing methods on both in-distribution (+2.76\%) and out-of-distribution (+1.90\%) tasks. Source code is available at https://github.com/shuhao02/RouterDC.

Increasing demand for Large Language Models (LLMs) services imposes substantial deployment and computation costs on providers. LLM routing offers a cost-efficient solution by directing queries to the optimal LLM based on model and query features. However, existing works primarily focus on offline scenarios and struggle to adapt to online settings with high query volume and constrained token budgets. In this work, we introduce the first training-free algorithm for online routing scenarios. Our algorithm leverages approximate nearest neighbor search to efficiently estimate query features and performs a one-time optimization over a small set of initial queries to learn a routing strategy that guides future routing. We provide theoretical guarantees demonstrating that our algorithm achieves a competitive ratio of 1 - o(1) under natural assumptions, which is further validated by extensive experiments across 3 benchmark datasets and 8 baselines, showing an average improvement of 3.55times in overall performance, 1.85times in cost efficiency, and nearly 4.25times in throughput. Our code is available at https://github.com/fzwark/PORT.

Large language models (LLMs) often exhibit complementary strengths. Model routing harnesses these strengths by dynamically directing each query to the most suitable model, given a candidate model pool. However, routing performance relies on accurate model representations, and adding new models typically requires retraining, limiting scalability. To address these challenges, we propose a novel routing method using in-context vectors to represent model capabilities. The method proceeds in two stages. First, queries are embedded and projected into vectors, with a projector and LLM-based router trained to reconstruct the original queries, aligning vector representations with the router's semantic space. Second, each candidate model is profiled on a query set, and the router learns -- based on in-context vectors of query and model performance -- to predict whether each model can correctly answer new queries. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art routing performance in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution tasks. Moreover, our method allows for seamless integration of new models without retraining the router. The code is available at https://github.com/lalalamdbf/ICL-Router.

The sparsely-activated models have achieved great success in natural language processing through large-scale parameters and relatively low computational cost, and gradually become a feasible technique for training and implementing extremely large models. Due to the limit of communication cost, activating multiple experts is hardly affordable during training and inference. Therefore, previous work usually activate just one expert at a time to alleviate additional communication cost. Such routing mechanism limits the upper bound of model performance. In this paper, we first investigate a phenomenon that increasing the number of activated experts can boost the model performance with higher sparse ratio. To increase the number of activated experts without an increase in computational cost, we propose SAM (Switch and Mixture) routing, an efficient hierarchical routing mechanism that activates multiple experts in a same device (GPU). Our methods shed light on the training of extremely large sparse models and experiments prove that our models can achieve significant performance gain with great efficiency improvement.

Verbal confidence elicitation is widely used to extract uncertainty estimates from LLMs. We tested whether seven instruction-tuned open-weight models (3-9B parameters, four families) produce verbalised confidence that meets minimal validity criteria for item-level Type-2 discrimination under minimal numeric elicitation with greedy decoding. In a pre-registered study (OSF: osf.io/azbvx), 524 TriviaQA items were administered under numeric (0-100) and categorical (10-class) elicitation to eight models at Q5_K_M quantisation on consumer hardware, yielding 8,384 deterministic trials. A psychometric validity screen was applied to each model-format cell. All seven instruct models were classified Invalid on numeric confidence (H2 confirmed, 7/7 vs. predicted >=4/7), with a mean ceiling rate of 91.7% (H1 confirmed). Categorical elicitation did not rescue validity. Instead, it disrupted task performance in six of seven models, producing accuracy below 5% (H4 not confirmed). Token-level logprobability did not usefully predict verbalised confidence under the observed variance regime (H5 confirmed, mean cross-validated R^2 < 0.01). Within the reasoning-distilled model, reasoning-trace length showed a strong negative partial correlation with confidence (rho = -0.36, p < .001), consistent with the Reasoning Contamination Effect. These results do not imply that internal uncertainty representations are absent. They show that minimal verbal elicitation fails to preserve internal signals at the output interface in this model-size regime. Psychometric screening should precede any downstream use of such signals.

The Multi-armed bandit offer the advantage to learn and exploit the already learnt knowledge at the same time. This capability allows this approach to be applied in different domains, going from clinical trials where the goal is investigating the effects of different experimental treatments while minimizing patient losses, to adaptive routing where the goal is to minimize the delays in a network. This article provides a review of the recent results on applying bandit to real-life scenario and summarize the state of the art for each of these fields. Different techniques has been proposed to solve this problem setting, like epsilon-greedy, Upper confident bound (UCB) and Thompson Sampling (TS). We are showing here how this algorithms were adapted to solve the different problems of exploration exploitation.