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Dec 15

Proactive Model Adaptation Against Concept Drift for Online Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting always faces the challenge of concept drift, where data distributions evolve over time, leading to a decline in forecast model performance. Existing solutions are based on online learning, which continually organize recent time series observations as new training samples and update model parameters according to the forecasting feedback on recent data. However, they overlook a critical issue: obtaining ground-truth future values of each sample should be delayed until after the forecast horizon. This delay creates a temporal gap between the training samples and the test sample. Our empirical analysis reveals that the gap can introduce concept drift, causing forecast models to adapt to outdated concepts. In this paper, we present Proceed, a novel proactive model adaptation framework for online time series forecasting. Proceed first estimates the concept drift between the recently used training samples and the current test sample. It then employs an adaptation generator to efficiently translate the estimated drift into parameter adjustments, proactively adapting the model to the test sample. To enhance the generalization capability of the framework, Proceed is trained on synthetic diverse concept drifts. Extensive experiments on five real-world datasets across various forecast models demonstrate that Proceed brings more performance improvements than the state-of-the-art online learning methods, significantly facilitating forecast models' resilience against concept drifts. Code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-DMTai/OnlineTSF.

  • 2 authors
·
Dec 11, 2024

CacheBlend: Fast Large Language Model Serving for RAG with Cached Knowledge Fusion

Large language models (LLMs) often incorporate multiple text chunks in their inputs to provide the necessary contexts. To speed up the prefill of the long LLM inputs, one can pre-compute the KV cache of a text and re-use the KV cache when the context is reused as the prefix of another LLM input. However, the reused text chunks are not always the input prefix, and when they are not, their precomputed KV caches cannot be directly used since they ignore the text's cross-attention with the preceding text in the LLM input. Thus, the benefits of reusing KV caches remain largely unrealized. This paper tackles just one question: when an LLM input contains multiple text chunks, how to quickly combine their precomputed KV caches in order to achieve the same generation quality as the expensive full prefill (i.e., without reusing KV cache)? We present CacheBlend, a scheme that reuses the pre-computed KV caches, regardless prefix or not, and selectively recomputes the KV values of a small subset of tokens to partially update each reused KV cache. In the meantime,the small extra delay for recomputing some tokens can be pipelined with the retrieval of KV caches within the same job,allowing CacheBlend to store KV caches in slower devices with more storage capacity while retrieving them without increasing the inference delay. By comparing CacheBlend with the state-of-the-art KV cache reusing schemes on three open-source LLMs of various sizes and four popular benchmark datasets of different tasks, we show that CacheBlend reduces time-to-first-token (TTFT) by 2.2-3.3X and increases the inference throughput by 2.8-5X, compared with full KV recompute, without compromising generation quality or incurring more storage cost.

  • 9 authors
·
May 26, 2024

Digital Twins: State of the Art Theory and Practice, Challenges, and Open Research Questions

Digital Twin was introduced over a decade ago, as an innovative all-encompassing tool, with perceived benefits including real-time monitoring, simulation and forecasting. However, the theoretical framework and practical implementations of digital twins (DT) are still far from this vision. Although successful implementations exist, sufficient implementation details are not publicly available, therefore it is difficult to assess their effectiveness, draw comparisons and jointly advance the DT methodology. This work explores the various DT features and current approaches, the shortcomings and reasons behind the delay in the implementation and adoption of digital twin. Advancements in machine learning, internet of things and big data have contributed hugely to the improvements in DT with regards to its real-time monitoring and forecasting properties. Despite this progress and individual company-based efforts, certain research gaps exist in the field, which have caused delay in the widespread adoption of this concept. We reviewed relevant works and identified that the major reasons for this delay are the lack of a universal reference framework, domain dependence, security concerns of shared data, reliance of digital twin on other technologies, and lack of quantitative metrics. We define the necessary components of a digital twin required for a universal reference framework, which also validate its uniqueness as a concept compared to similar concepts like simulation, autonomous systems, etc. This work further assesses the digital twin applications in different domains and the current state of machine learning and big data in it. It thus answers and identifies novel research questions, both of which will help to better understand and advance the theory and practice of digital twins.

  • 5 authors
·
Nov 2, 2020

TDCOSMO XVII. New time delays in 22 lensed quasars from optical monitoring with the ESO-VST 2.6m and MPG 2.2m telescopes

We present new time delays, the main ingredient of time delay cosmography, for 22 lensed quasars resulting from high-cadence r-band monitoring on the 2.6 m ESO VLT Survey Telescope and Max-Planck-Gesellschaft 2.2 m telescope. Each lensed quasar was typically monitored for one to four seasons, often shared between the two telescopes to mitigate the interruptions forced by the COVID-19 pandemic. The sample of targets consists of 19 quadruply and 3 doubly imaged quasars, which received a total of 1 918 hours of on-sky time split into 21 581 wide-field frames, each 320 seconds long. In a given field, the 5-{\sigma} depth of the combined exposures typically reaches the 27th magnitude, while that of single visits is 24.5 mag - similar to the expected depth of the upcoming Vera-Rubin LSST. The fluxes of the different lensed images of the targets were reliably de-blended, providing not only light curves with photometric precision down to the photon noise limit, but also high-resolution models of the targets whose features and astrometry were systematically confirmed in Hubble Space Telescope imaging. This was made possible thanks to a new photometric pipeline, lightcurver, and the forward modelling method STARRED. Finally, the time delays between pairs of curves and their uncertainties were estimated, taking into account the degeneracy due to microlensing, and for the first time the full covariance matrices of the delay pairs are provided. Of note, this survey, with 13 square degrees, has applications beyond that of time delays, such as the study of the structure function of the multiple high-redshift quasars present in the footprint at a new high in terms of both depth and frequency. The reduced images will be available through the European Southern Observatory Science Portal.

  • 32 authors
·
Apr 3

Learning Delays in Spiking Neural Networks using Dilated Convolutions with Learnable Spacings

Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) are a promising research direction for building power-efficient information processing systems, especially for temporal tasks such as speech recognition. In SNNs, delays refer to the time needed for one spike to travel from one neuron to another. These delays matter because they influence the spike arrival times, and it is well-known that spiking neurons respond more strongly to coincident input spikes. More formally, it has been shown theoretically that plastic delays greatly increase the expressivity in SNNs. Yet, efficient algorithms to learn these delays have been lacking. Here, we propose a new discrete-time algorithm that addresses this issue in deep feedforward SNNs using backpropagation, in an offline manner. To simulate delays between consecutive layers, we use 1D convolutions across time. The kernels contain only a few non-zero weights - one per synapse - whose positions correspond to the delays. These positions are learned together with the weights using the recently proposed Dilated Convolution with Learnable Spacings (DCLS). We evaluated our method on three datasets: the Spiking Heidelberg Dataset (SHD), the Spiking Speech Commands (SSC) and its non-spiking version Google Speech Commands v0.02 (GSC) benchmarks, which require detecting temporal patterns. We used feedforward SNNs with two or three hidden fully connected layers, and vanilla leaky integrate-and-fire neurons. We showed that fixed random delays help and that learning them helps even more. Furthermore, our method outperformed the state-of-the-art in the three datasets without using recurrent connections and with substantially fewer parameters. Our work demonstrates the potential of delay learning in developing accurate and precise models for temporal data processing. Our code is based on PyTorch / SpikingJelly and available at: https://github.com/Thvnvtos/SNN-delays

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 30, 2023

CacheGen: Fast Context Loading for Language Model Applications

As large language models (LLMs) take on more complex tasks, their inputs incorporate longer contexts to respond to questions that require domain knowledge or user-specific conversational histories. Yet, using long contexts poses a challenge for responsive LLM systems, as nothing can be generated until all the contexts are fetched to and processed by the LLM. Existing systems optimize only the computation delay in context processing (e.g., by caching intermediate key-value features of the text context) but often cause longer network delays in context fetching (e.g., key-value features consume orders of magnitude larger bandwidth than the text context). This paper presents CacheGen to minimize the delays in fetching and processing contexts for LLMs. CacheGen reduces the bandwidth needed for transmitting long contexts' key-value (KV) features through a novel encoder that compresses KV features into more compact bitstream representations. The encoder combines adaptive quantization with a tailored arithmetic coder, taking advantage of the KV features' distributional properties, such as locality across tokens. Furthermore, CacheGen minimizes the total delay in fetching and processing a context by using a controller that determines when to load the context as compressed KV features or raw text and picks the appropriate compression level if loaded as KV features. We test CacheGen on three models of various sizes and three datasets of different context lengths. Compared to recent methods that handle long contexts, CacheGen reduces bandwidth usage by 3.7-4.3x and the total delay in fetching and processing contexts by 2.7-3x while maintaining similar LLM performance on various tasks as loading the text contexts.

  • 12 authors
·
Oct 11, 2023

Measuring the Impact of Early-2025 AI on Experienced Open-Source Developer Productivity

Despite widespread adoption, the impact of AI tools on software development in the wild remains understudied. We conduct a randomized controlled trial (RCT) to understand how AI tools at the February-June 2025 frontier affect the productivity of experienced open-source developers. 16 developers with moderate AI experience complete 246 tasks in mature projects on which they have an average of 5 years of prior experience. Each task is randomly assigned to allow or disallow usage of early 2025 AI tools. When AI tools are allowed, developers primarily use Cursor Pro, a popular code editor, and Claude 3.5/3.7 Sonnet. Before starting tasks, developers forecast that allowing AI will reduce completion time by 24%. After completing the study, developers estimate that allowing AI reduced completion time by 20%. Surprisingly, we find that allowing AI actually increases completion time by 19%--AI tooling slowed developers down. This slowdown also contradicts predictions from experts in economics (39% shorter) and ML (38% shorter). To understand this result, we collect and evaluate evidence for 20 properties of our setting that a priori could contribute to the observed slowdown effect--for example, the size and quality standards of projects, or prior developer experience with AI tooling. Although the influence of experimental artifacts cannot be entirely ruled out, the robustness of the slowdown effect across our analyses suggests it is unlikely to primarily be a function of our experimental design.

  • 4 authors
·
Jul 11

dKV-Cache: The Cache for Diffusion Language Models

Diffusion Language Models (DLMs) have been seen as a promising competitor for autoregressive language models. However, diffusion language models have long been constrained by slow inference. A core challenge is that their non-autoregressive architecture and bidirectional attention preclude the key-value cache that accelerates decoding. We address this bottleneck by proposing a KV-cache-like mechanism, delayed KV-Cache, for the denoising process of DLMs. Our approach is motivated by the observation that different tokens have distinct representation dynamics throughout the diffusion process. Accordingly, we propose a delayed and conditioned caching strategy for key and value states. We design two complementary variants to cache key and value step-by-step: (1) dKV-Cache-Decode, which provides almost lossless acceleration, and even improves performance on long sequences, suggesting that existing DLMs may under-utilise contextual information during inference. (2) dKV-Cache-Greedy, which has aggressive caching with reduced lifespan, achieving higher speed-ups with quadratic time complexity at the cost of some performance degradation. dKV-Cache, in final, achieves from 2-10x speedup in inference, largely narrowing the gap between ARs and DLMs. We evaluate our dKV-Cache on several benchmarks, delivering acceleration across general language understanding, mathematical, and code-generation benchmarks. Experiments demonstrate that cache can also be used in DLMs, even in a training-free manner from current DLMs.

  • 4 authors
·
May 21 2

Accelerating Diffusion LLM Inference via Local Determinism Propagation

Diffusion large language models (dLLMs) represent a significant advancement in text generation, offering parallel token decoding capabilities. However, existing open-source implementations suffer from quality-speed trade-offs that impede their practical deployment. Conservative sampling strategies typically decode only the most confident token per step to ensure quality (i.e., greedy decoding), at the cost of inference efficiency due to repeated redundant refinement iterations--a phenomenon we term delayed decoding. Through systematic analysis of dLLM decoding dynamics, we characterize this delayed decoding behavior and propose a training-free adaptive parallel decoding strategy, named LocalLeap, to address these inefficiencies. LocalLeap is built on two fundamental empirical principles: local determinism propagation centered on high-confidence anchors and progressive spatial consistency decay. By applying these principles, LocalLeap identifies anchors and performs localized relaxed parallel decoding within bounded neighborhoods, achieving substantial inference step reduction through early commitment of already-determined tokens without compromising output quality. Comprehensive evaluation on various benchmarks demonstrates that LocalLeap achieves 6.94times throughput improvements and reduces decoding steps to just 14.2\% of the original requirement, achieving these gains with negligible performance impact. The source codes are available at: https://github.com/friedrichor/LocalLeap.

  • 7 authors
·
Oct 8

Look Before you Leap: Estimating LLM Benchmark Scores from Descriptions

Progress in large language models is constrained by an evaluation bottleneck: build a benchmark, evaluate models and settings, then iterate. We therefore ask a simple question: can we forecast outcomes before running any experiments? We study text-only performance forecasting: estimating a model's score from a redacted task description and intended configuration, with no access to dataset instances. To support systematic study, we curate PRECOG, a corpus of redacted description-performance pairs spanning diverse tasks, domains, and metrics. Experiments show the task is challenging but feasible: models equipped with a retrieval module that excludes source papers achieve moderate prediction performance with well-calibrated uncertainty, reaching mean absolute error as low as 8.7 on the Accuracy subset at high-confidence thresholds. Our analysis indicates that stronger reasoning models engage in diverse, iterative querying, whereas current open-source models lag and often skip retrieval or gather evidence with limited diversity. We further test a zero-leakage setting, forecasting on newly released datasets or experiments before their papers are indexed, where GPT-5 with built-in web search still attains nontrivial prediction accuracy. Overall, our corpus and analyses offer an initial step toward open-ended anticipatory evaluation, supporting difficulty estimation and smarter experiment prioritization.

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 24