Daily Papers

Tabular datasets are ubiquitous in data science applications. Given their importance, it seems natural to apply state-of-the-art deep learning algorithms in order to fully unlock their potential. Here we propose neural network models that represent tabular time series that can optionally leverage their hierarchical structure. This results in two architectures for tabular time series: one for learning representations that is analogous to BERT and can be pre-trained end-to-end and used in downstream tasks, and one that is akin to GPT and can be used for generation of realistic synthetic tabular sequences. We demonstrate our models on two datasets: a synthetic credit card transaction dataset, where the learned representations are used for fraud detection and synthetic data generation, and on a real pollution dataset, where the learned encodings are used to predict atmospheric pollutant concentrations. Code and data are available at https://github.com/IBM/TabFormer.

Air pollution remains a leading global health risk, exacerbated by rapid industrialization and urbanization, contributing significantly to morbidity and mortality rates. In this paper, we introduce AirCast, a novel multi-variable air pollution forecasting model, by combining weather and air quality variables. AirCast employs a multi-task head architecture that simultaneously forecasts atmospheric conditions and pollutant concentrations, improving its understanding of how weather patterns affect air quality. Predicting extreme pollution events is challenging due to their rare occurrence in historic data, resulting in a heavy-tailed distribution of pollution levels. To address this, we propose a novel Frequency-weighted Mean Absolute Error (fMAE) loss, adapted from the class-balanced loss for regression tasks. Informed from domain knowledge, we investigate the selection of key variables known to influence pollution levels. Additionally, we align existing weather and chemical datasets across spatial and temporal dimensions. AirCast's integrated approach, combining multi-task learning, frequency weighted loss and domain informed variable selection, enables more accurate pollution forecasts. Our source code and models are made public here (https://github.com/vishalned/AirCast.git)

Air pollution constitutes a global problem of paramount importance that affects not only human health, but also the environment. The existence of spatial and temporal data regarding the concentrations of pollutants is crucial for performing air pollution studies and monitor emissions. However, although observation data presents great temporal coverage, the number of stations is very limited and they are usually built in more populated areas. The main objective of this work is to create models capable of inferring pollutant concentrations in locations where no observation data exists. A machine learning model, more specifically the random forest model, was developed for predicting concentrations in the Iberian Peninsula in 2019 for five selected pollutants: NO_2, O_3 SO_2, PM10, and PM2.5. Model features include satellite measurements, meteorological variables, land use classification, temporal variables (month, day of year), and spatial variables (latitude, longitude, altitude). The models were evaluated using various methods, including station 10-fold cross-validation, in which in each fold observations from 10\% of the stations are used as testing data and the rest as training data. The R^2, RMSE and mean bias were determined for each model. The NO_2 and O_3 models presented good values of R^2, 0.5524 and 0.7462, respectively. However, the SO_2, PM10, and PM2.5 models performed very poorly in this regard, with R^2 values of -0.0231, 0.3722, and 0.3303, respectively. All models slightly overestimated the ground concentrations, except the O_3 model. All models presented acceptable cross-validation RMSE, except the O_3 and PM10 models where the mean value was a little higher (12.5934 mu g/m^3 and 10.4737 mu g/m^3, respectively).

Air pollution poses a significant threat to public health and well-being, particularly in urban areas. This study introduces a series of machine-learning models that integrate data from the Sentinel-5P satellite, meteorological conditions, and topological characteristics to forecast future levels of five major pollutants. The investigation delineates the process of data collection, detailing the combination of diverse data sources utilized in the study. Through experiments conducted in the Milan metropolitan area, the models demonstrate their efficacy in predicting pollutant levels for the forthcoming day, achieving a percentage error of around 30%. The proposed models are advantageous as they are independent of monitoring stations, facilitating their use in areas without existing infrastructure. Additionally, we have released the collected dataset to the public, aiming to stimulate further research in this field. This research contributes to advancing our understanding of urban air quality dynamics and emphasizes the importance of amalgamating satellite, meteorological, and topographical data to develop robust pollution forecasting models.

Ambient air pollution remains a critical issue in the United Kingdom, where data on air pollution concentrations form the foundation for interventions aimed at improving air quality. However, the current air pollution monitoring station network in the UK is characterized by spatial sparsity, heterogeneous placement, and frequent temporal data gaps, often due to issues such as power outages. We introduce a scalable data-driven supervised machine learning model framework designed to address temporal and spatial data gaps by filling missing measurements. This approach provides a comprehensive dataset for England throughout 2018 at a 1kmx1km hourly resolution. Leveraging machine learning techniques and real-world data from the sparsely distributed monitoring stations, we generate 355,827 synthetic monitoring stations across the study area, yielding data valued at approximately \pounds70 billion. Validation was conducted to assess the model's performance in forecasting, estimating missing locations, and capturing peak concentrations. The resulting dataset is of particular interest to a diverse range of stakeholders engaged in downstream assessments supported by outdoor air pollution concentration data for NO2, O3, PM10, PM2.5, and SO2. This resource empowers stakeholders to conduct studies at a higher resolution than was previously possible.

Air quality prediction and modelling plays a pivotal role in public health and environment management, for individuals and authorities to make informed decisions. Although traditional data-driven models have shown promise in this domain, their long-term prediction accuracy can be limited, especially in scenarios with sparse or incomplete data and they often rely on black-box deep learning structures that lack solid physical foundation leading to reduced transparency and interpretability in predictions. To address these limitations, this paper presents a novel approach named Physics guided Neural Network for Air Quality Prediction (AirPhyNet). Specifically, we leverage two well-established physics principles of air particle movement (diffusion and advection) by representing them as differential equation networks. Then, we utilize a graph structure to integrate physics knowledge into a neural network architecture and exploit latent representations to capture spatio-temporal relationships within the air quality data. Experiments on two real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that AirPhyNet outperforms state-of-the-art models for different testing scenarios including different lead time (24h, 48h, 72h), sparse data and sudden change prediction, achieving reduction in prediction errors up to 10%. Moreover, a case study further validates that our model captures underlying physical processes of particle movement and generates accurate predictions with real physical meaning.

The Earth's atmosphere is an aerosol, it contains suspended particles. When air flows over an obstacle such as an aircraft wing or tree branch, these particles may not follow the same paths as the air flowing around the obstacle. Instead the particles in the air may deviate from the path of the air and so collide with the surface of the obstacle. It is known that particle inertia can drive this deposition, and that there is a critical value of this inertia, below which no point particles deposit. Particle inertia is measured by the Stokes number, St. We show that near the critical value of the Stokes number, St_c, the amount of deposition has the unusual scaling law of exp(-1/(St-St_c)^{1/2}). The scaling is controlled by the stagnation point of the flow. This scaling is determined by the time for the particle to reach the surface of the cylinder varying as 1/(St-St_c)^{1/2}, together with the distance away from the stagnation point (perpendicular to the flow direction) increasing exponentially with time. The scaling law applies to inviscid flow, a model for flow at high Reynolds numbers. The unusual scaling means that the amount of particles deposited increases only very slowly above the critical Stokes number. This has consequences for applications ranging from rime formation and fog harvesting to pollination.

This paper investigates the possibility of high resolution mapping of PM2.5 concentration over Tehran city using high resolution satellite AOD (MAIAC) retrievals. For this purpose, a framework including three main stages, data preprocessing; regression modeling; and model deployment was proposed. The output of the framework was a machine learning model trained to predict PM2.5 from MAIAC AOD retrievals and meteorological data. The results of model testing revealed the efficiency and capability of the developed framework for high resolution mapping of PM2.5, which was not realized in former investigations performed over the city. Thus, this study, for the first time, realized daily, 1 km resolution mapping of PM2.5 in Tehran with R2 around 0.74 and RMSE better than 9.0 mg/m3. Keywords: MAIAC; MODIS; AOD; Machine learning; Deep learning; PM2.5; Regression

The concentration of radon in the air has been measured in the 700 m-deep Yangyang underground laboratory between October 2004 and May 2022. The average concentrations in two experimental areas, called A6 and A5, were measured to be 53.4pm0.2 Bq/m3 and 33.5pm0.1 Bq/m3, respectively. The lower value in the A5 area reflects the presence of better temperature control and ventilation. The radon concentrations sampled within the two A5 experimental rooms' air are found to be correlated to the local surface temperature outside of the rooms, with correlation coefficients r = 0.22 and r = 0.70. Therefore, the radon concentrations display a seasonal variation, because the local temperature driven by the overground season influences air ventilation in the experimental areas. A fit on the annual residual concentrations finds that the amplitude occurs each year on August, 31pm6 days.

Since the last nuclear atmospheric test carried out by the People Republic of China in 1980 and since the Chernobyl accident in 1986, the plutonium hasn't been directly released into the atmosphere. However, nowadays, it is still present in the troposphere. This is due to plutonium-bearing soil particles physical resuspension processes. In this work, we study for the first time the temporal variation of plutonium isotopes, 239Pu and 240Pu, baseline concentrations on a monthly basis in surface air from Seville (Spain), and their correlation with some tracers of mineral dust, during 2001 and 2002. The Pu analyses were performed by low-energy Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS). The 239Pu plus 240Pu (239+240Pu) activity levels achieved maximums during the summer period, characterized by the absence of rains, and minimums during the rainy seasons, laying in the range 1-20 nBq per cubic meter. The 240Pu/239Pu two-year average atomic ratio was 0.18(0.03), in agreement with the fallout plutonium. A good correlation with Pu and Al and Ti levels is observed. They are crustal components usually used as tracers of African dust over European countries. The hypothesis of the influence of the Saharan dust intrusions is supported as well through the study of Total Ozone Mass Spectrometer (TOMS) daily images.

The quantitative prediction of the intensity of rainfall events (light or heavy) has remained a challenge in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. For the first time the mean coefficient of diffusional growth rates are calculated using an Eulerian-Lagrangian particle-based small-scale model on in situ airborne measurement data of Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (CAIPEEX) during monsoon over Indian sub-continent. The results show that diffusional growth rates varies in the range of 0.00025 - 0.0015(cm/s). The generic problem of the overestimation of light rain in NWP models might be related with the choice of cm in the model. It is also shown from DNS experiment using Eulerian-Lagrangian particle-based small-scale model that the relative dispersion is constrained with average values in the range of ~ 0.2 - 0.37 (~ 0.1- 0.26) in less humid (more humid) conditions. This is in agreement with in situ airborne observation (dispersion ~ 0.36) and previous study over Indian sub-continent. The linear relationship between relative dispersion and cloud droplet number concentration (NC) is obtained from this study using CAIPEEX observation over Indian subcontinent. The dispersion based autoconversion-scheme for Indian region must be useful for the Indian summer monsoon precipitation calculation in the general circulation model. The present study also provide valuable guidance for the parameterization of effective radius, important for radiation scheme.

Half of the JWST high-contrast imaging objects will only have photometric data {{as of Cycle 2}}. However, to better understand their atmospheric chemistry which informs formation origin, spectroscopic data are preferred. Using HIP 65426 b, we investigate to what extent planet properties and atmospheric chemical abundance can be retrieved with only JWST photometric data points (2.5-15.5 mum) in conjunction with ground-based archival low-resolution spectral data (1.0-2.3 mum). We find that the data is consistent with an atmosphere with solar metallicity and C/O ratios at 0.40 and 0.55. We rule out 10x solar metallicity and an atmosphere with C/O = 1.0. We also find strong evidence of silicate clouds but no sign of an enshrouding featureless {{dust}} extinction. This work offers guidance and cautionary tales on analyzing data in the absence of medium-to-high resolution spectral data.

Attempts to probe the atmospheres of rocky planets around M dwarfs present both promise and peril. While their favorable planet-to-star radius ratios enable searches for even thin secondary atmospheres, their high activity levels and high-energy outputs threaten atmosphere survival. Here, we present the 0.6--2.85\,mum transmission spectrum of the 1.1\,rm R_oplus, sim340\,K rocky planet TRAPPIST-1\,c obtained over two JWST NIRISS/SOSS transit observations. Each of the two spectra displays 100--500\,ppm signatures of stellar contamination. Despite being separated by 367\,days, the retrieved spot and faculae properties are consistent between the two visits, resulting in nearly identical transmission spectra. Jointly retrieving for stellar contamination and a planetary atmosphere reveals that our spectrum can rule out hydrogen-dominated, lesssim300times solar metallicity atmospheres with effective surface pressures down to 10\,mbar at the 3-sigma level. For high-mean molecular weight atmospheres, where O_2 or N_2 is the background gas, our spectrum disfavors partial pressures of more than sim10\,mbar for H_2O, CO, NH_3 and CH_4 at the 2-sigma level. Similarly, under the assumption of a 100\% H_2O, NH_3, CO, or CH_4 atmosphere, our spectrum disfavors thick, >1\,bar atmospheres at the 2-sigma level. These non-detections of spectral features are in line with predictions that even heavier, CO_2-rich, atmospheres would be efficiently lost on TRAPPIST-1\,c given the cumulative high-energy irradiation experienced by the planet. Our results further stress the importance of robustly accounting for stellar contamination when analyzing JWST observations of exo-Earths around M dwarfs, as well as the need for high-fidelity stellar models to search for the potential signals of thin secondary atmospheres.

In 2023, the global mean temperature soared to 1.48K above the pre-industrial level, surpassing the previous record by 0.17K. Previous best-guess estimates of known drivers including anthropogenic warming and the El Nino onset fall short by about 0.2K in explaining the temperature rise. Utilizing satellite and reanalysis data, we identify a record-low planetary albedo as the primary factor bridging this gap. The decline is caused largely by a reduced low-cloud cover in the northern mid-latitudes and tropics, in continuation of a multi-annual trend. Understanding how much of the low-cloud trend is due to internal variability, reduced aerosol concentrations, or a possibly emerging low-cloud feedback will be crucial for assessing the current and expected future warming.

Clouds play a significant role in global temperature regulation through their effect on planetary albedo. Anthropogenic emissions of aerosols can alter the albedo of clouds, but the extent of this effect, and its consequent impact on temperature change, remains uncertain. Human-induced clouds caused by ship aerosol emissions, commonly referred to as ship tracks, provide visible manifestations of this effect distinct from adjacent cloud regions and therefore serve as a useful sandbox to study human-induced clouds. However, the lack of large-scale ship track data makes it difficult to deduce their general effects on cloud formation. Towards developing automated approaches to localize ship tracks at scale, we present CloudTracks, a dataset containing 3,560 satellite images labeled with more than 12,000 ship track instance annotations. We train semantic segmentation and instance segmentation model baselines on our dataset and find that our best model substantially outperforms previous state-of-the-art for ship track localization (61.29 vs. 48.65 IoU). We also find that the best instance segmentation model is able to identify the number of ship tracks in each image more accurately than the previous state-of-the-art (1.64 vs. 4.99 MAE). However, we identify cases where the best model struggles to accurately localize and count ship tracks, so we believe CloudTracks will stimulate novel machine learning approaches to better detect elongated and overlapping features in satellite images. We release our dataset openly at {zenodo.org/records/10042922}.

TOI-836 is a ~2-3 Gyr K dwarf with an inner super Earth (R=1.7 R_oplus, P=3.8 d) and an outer mini Neptune (R=2.6 R_oplus, P=8.6 d). JWST/NIRSpec 2.8--5.2 mum transmission spectra are flat for both planets. We present Keck/NIRSPEC observations of escaping helium for super-Earth b, which shows no excess absorption in the 1083 nm triplet to deep limits (<0.2%), and mini-Neptune c, which shows strong (0.7%) excess absorption in both visits. These results demonstrate that planet c retains at least some primordial atmosphere, while planet b is consistent with having lost its entire primordial envelope. Self-consistent 1D radiative-hydrodynamic models of planet c reveal that the helium excess absorption signal is highly sensitive to metallicity: its equivalent width collapses by a factor of 13 as metallicity increases from 10x to 100x solar, and by a further factor of 12 as it increases to 200x solar. The observed equivalent width is 88\% the model prediction for 100x metallicity, suggesting an atmospheric metallicity similar to K2-18b and TOI-270d, the first two mini-Neptunes with detected absorption features in JWST transmission spectra. We highlight the helium triplet as a potentially powerful probe of atmospheric composition, with complementary strengths and weaknesses to atmospheric retrievals. The main strength is its extreme sensitivity to metallicity in the scientifically significant range of 10--200x solar, and the main weakness is the enormous model uncertainties in outflow suppression and confinement mechanisms, such as magnetic fields and stellar winds, which can suppress the signal by at least a factor of ~several.

Advancements in space telescopes have opened new avenues for gathering vast amounts of data on exoplanet atmosphere spectra. However, accurately extracting chemical and physical properties from these spectra poses significant challenges due to the non-linear nature of the underlying physics. This paper presents novel machine learning models developed by the AstroAI team for the Ariel Data Challenge 2023, where one of the models secured the top position among 293 competitors. Leveraging Normalizing Flows, our models predict the posterior probability distribution of atmospheric parameters under different atmospheric assumptions. Moreover, we introduce an alternative model that exhibits higher performance potential than the winning model, despite scoring lower in the challenge. These findings highlight the need to reevaluate the evaluation metric and prompt further exploration of more efficient and accurate approaches for exoplanet atmosphere spectra analysis. Finally, we present recommendations to enhance the challenge and models, providing valuable insights for future applications on real observational data. These advancements pave the way for more effective and timely analysis of exoplanet atmospheric properties, advancing our understanding of these distant worlds.