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Jun 26

Galaxy Zoo: Kinematics of strongly and weakly barred galaxies

We study the bar pattern speeds and corotation radii of 225 barred galaxies, using IFU data from MaNGA and the Tremaine-Weinberg method. Our sample, which is divided between strongly and weakly barred galaxies identified via Galaxy Zoo, is the largest that this method has been applied to. We find lower pattern speeds for strongly barred galaxies than for weakly barred galaxies. As simulations show that the pattern speed decreases as the bar exchanges angular momentum with its host, these results suggest that strong bars are more evolved than weak bars. Interestingly, the corotation radius is not different between weakly and strongly barred galaxies, despite being proportional to bar length. We also find that the corotation radius is significantly different between quenching and star forming galaxies. Additionally, we find that strongly barred galaxies have significantly lower values for R, the ratio between the corotation radius and the bar radius, than weakly barred galaxies, despite a big overlap in both distributions. This ratio classifies bars into ultrafast bars (R < 1.0; 11% of our sample), fast bars (1.0 < R < 1.4; 27%) and slow bars (R > 1.4; 62%). Simulations show that R is correlated with the bar formation mechanism, so our results suggest that strong bars are more likely to be formed by different mechanisms than weak bars. Finally, we find a lower fraction of ultrafast bars than most other studies, which decreases the recently claimed tension with {\Lambda}CDM. However, the median value of R is still lower than what is predicted by simulations.

PECCARY: A novel approach for characterizing orbital complexity, stochasticity, and regularity

Permutation Entropy and statistiCal Complexity Analysis for astRophYsics (PECCARY) is a computationally inexpensive, statistical method by which any time-series can be characterized as predominantly regular, complex, or stochastic. Elements of the PECCARY method have been used in a variety of physical, biological, economic, and mathematical scenarios, but have not yet gained traction in the astrophysical community. This study introduces the PECCARY technique with the specific aims to motivate its use in and optimize it for the analysis of astrophysical orbital systems. PECCARY works by decomposing a time-dependent measure, such as the x-coordinate or orbital angular momentum time-series, into ordinal patterns. Due to its unique approach and statistical nature, PECCARY is well-suited for detecting preferred and forbidden patterns (a signature of chaos), even when the chaotic behavior is short-lived or when working with a relatively short duration time-series or small sets of time-series data. A variety of examples are used to demonstrate the capabilities of PECCARY. These include mathematical examples (sine waves, varieties of noise, sums of sine waves, well-known chaotic functions), a double pendulum system, and astrophysical tracer particle simulations with potentials of varying intricacies. Since the adopted timescale used to diagnose a given time-series can affect the outcome, a method is presented to identify an ideal sampling scheme, constrained by the overall duration and the natural timescale of the system. The accompanying PECCARY Python package and its usage are discussed.

The Low Mass Ratio Overcontact Binary GV Leonis and Its Circumbinary Companion

Photometric and spectroscopic observations of GV Leo were performed from 2017 to 2024. The light curves show a flat bottom at the primary eclipse and the conventional O'Connell effect. The echelle spectra reveal that the effective temperature and rotation velocity of the more massive secondary are T_{rm eff,2} = 5220pm120 K and v_2 sin i = 223pm40 km s^{-1}, respectively. Our binary modeling indicates that the program target is a W-subclass contact binary with a mass ratio of q = 5.48, an inclination angle of i = 81^circ.68, a temperature difference of (T_{rm eff,1}-T_{rm eff,2}) = 154 K, and a filling factor of f = 36 \%. The light asymmetries were reasonably modeled by a dark starspot on the secondary's photosphere. Including our 26 minimum epochs, 84 times of minimum light were used to investigate the orbital period of the system. We found that the eclipse times of GV Leo have varied by a sinusoid with a period of 14.9 years and a semi-amplitude of 0.0076 days superimposed on a downward parabola. The periodic modulation is interpreted as a light time effect produced by an unseen outer tertiary with a minimum mass of 0.26 M_odot, while the parabolic component is thought to be a combination of mass transfer (secondary to primary) and angular momentum loss driven by magnetic braking. The circumbinary tertiary would have caused the eclipsing pair of GV Leo to evolve into its current short-period contact state by removing angular momentum from the primordial widish binary.

What Drives Cluster Cool-Core Transformations? A Population Level Analysis of TNG-Cluster

In this study, we examine the frequency and physical drivers of transformations from cool-core (CC) to non-cool-core (NCC) clusters, and vice versa, in a sample of 352 massive galaxy clusters (M_vir = 10^14-15.3 M_sun) from the TNG-Cluster magnetohydrodynamical cosmological simulation of galaxies. By identifying transformations based on the evolution of central entropy and focusing on z<2.5, we find that clusters frequently undergo such events, depending on their assembly and supermassive black hole histories. On average, clusters experience 2 to 3 transformations. Transformations can occur in both directions and can be temporary, but those to higher entropy cores, i.e. in the direction from CC to NCC states, are the vast majority. CC phases are shorter than NCC phases, and thus overall the TNG-Cluster population forms with low-entropy cores and moves towards NCC states with time. We study the role that mergers play in driving transformations, and find that mergers within ~1Gyr prior to a transformation toward higher (but not lower) entropy cores occur statistically more often than in a random control sample. Most importantly, we find examples of mergers associated with CC disruption regardless of their mass ratio or angular momentum. However, past merger activity is not a good predictor for z=0 CC status, at least based on core entropy, even though clusters undergoing more mergers eventually have the highest core entropy values at z=0. We consider the interplay between AGN feedback and evolving cluster core thermodynamics. We find that core transformations are accompanied by an increase in AGN activity, whereby frequent and repeated (kinetic) energy injections from the central SMBHs can produce a collective, long-term impact on central entropy, ultimately heating cluster cores. Whether such fast-paced periods of AGN activity are triggered by mergers is plausible, but not necessary.

The Simons Observatory: Cryogenic Half Wave Plate Rotation Mechanism for the Small Aperture Telescopes

We present the requirements, design and evaluation of the cryogenic continuously rotating half-wave plate (CHWP) for the Simons Observatory (SO). SO is a cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization experiment at Parque Astron\'{o}mico Atacama in northern Chile that covers a wide range of angular scales using both small (0.42 m) and large (6 m) aperture telescopes. In particular, the small aperture telescopes (SATs) focus on large angular scales for primordial B-mode polarization. To this end, the SATs employ a CHWP to modulate the polarization of the incident light at 8 Hz, suppressing atmospheric 1/f noise and mitigating systematic uncertainties that would otherwise arise due to the differential response of detectors sensitive to orthogonal polarizations. The CHWP consists of a 505 mm diameter achromatic sapphire HWP and a cryogenic rotation mechanism, both of which are cooled down to sim50 K to reduce detector thermal loading. Under normal operation the HWP is suspended by a superconducting magnetic bearing and rotates with a constant 2 Hz frequency, controlled by an electromagnetic synchronous motor. We find that the number of superconductors and magnets that make up the superconducting magnetic bearing are important design parameters, especially for the rotation mechanism's vibration performance. The rotation angle is detected through an angular encoder with a noise level of 0.07 muradmathrm{s}. During a cooldown, the rotor is held in place by a grip-and-release mechanism that serves as both an alignment device and a thermal path. In this paper we provide an overview of the SO SAT CHWP: its requirements, hardware design, and laboratory performance.

Parameter estimation from the core-bounce phase of rotating core collapse supernovae in real interferometer noise

In this work we propose an analytical model that reproduces the core-bounds phase of gravitational waves (GW) of Rapidly Rotating (RR) from Core Collapse Supernovae (CCSNe), as a function of three parameters, the arrival time tau, the ratio of the kinetic and potential energy beta and a phenomenological parameter alpha related to rotation and equation of state (EOS). To validate the model we use 126 waveforms from the Richers catalog Richers_2017 selected with the criteria of exploring a range of rotation profiles, and involving EOS. To quantify the degree of accuracy of the proposed model, with a particular focus on the rotation parameter beta, we show that the average Fitting Factor (FF) between the simulated waveforms with the templates is 94.4\%. In order to estimate the parameters we propose a frequentist matched filtering approach in real interferometric noise which does not require assigning any priors. We use the Matched Filter (MF) technique, where we inject a bank of templates considering simulated colored Gaussian noise and the real noise of O3L1. For example for A300w6.00\_BHBLP at 10Kpc we obtain a standar deviation of sigma = 3.34times 10^{-3} for simulated colored Gaussian noise and sigma= 1.46times 10^{-2} for real noise. On the other hand, from the asymptotic expansion of the variance we obtain the theoretical minimum error for beta at 10 kpc and optimal orientation. The estimation error in this case is from 10^{-2} to 10^{-3} as beta increases. We show that the results of the estimation error of beta for the 3-parameter space (3D) is consistent with the single-parameter space (1D), which allows us to conclude that beta is decoupled from the others two parameters.

New Radio Observations of the Supernova Remnant CTA 1

We present new radio images of the supernova remnant (SNR) CTA 1 at 1420 and 408 MHz, and in the 21 cm line of H I observed with the Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory Synthesis Telescope and at 1420 MHz observed with the Effelsberg 100 m telescope. We confirm previously described continuum features and elaborate further on filamentary features identified using the high-resolution (1') maps from these new observations. We investigate the abrupt change in sign of rotation measure (RM) across the SNR, using the linear polarization observations in the four bands around 1420 MHz. Following X. H. Sun et al.'s (2011) investigation, we both confirm that the distribution of signs of the RMs for extragalactic sources in the area appears to match that of the shell, as well as combine the data from the four bands to estimate the relative depolarization and the intrinsic rotation measure of the SNR. We do not conclusively reject X. H. Sun et al.'s (2011) claim of a Faraday screen in the foreground causing the distribution of RMs that we observe; however, we do suggest an alternative explanation of a swept-up stellar wind from the progenitor star with a toroidal magnetic field. Finally, we expand on the analysis of the H I observations by applying the Rolling Hough Transform to isolate filamentary structure and better identify H I emission with the SNR. Further constraining the H I velocity channels associated with CTA 1, we use more recent Galactic rotation curves to calculate an updated kinematic distance of 1.09 +/- 0.2 kpc.

Planck 2018 results. VI. Cosmological parameters

We present cosmological parameter results from the final full-mission Planck measurements of the CMB anisotropies. We find good consistency with the standard spatially-flat 6-parameter LambdaCDM cosmology having a power-law spectrum of adiabatic scalar perturbations (denoted "base LambdaCDM" in this paper), from polarization, temperature, and lensing, separately and in combination. A combined analysis gives dark matter density Omega_c h^2 = 0.120pm 0.001, baryon density Omega_b h^2 = 0.0224pm 0.0001, scalar spectral index n_s = 0.965pm 0.004, and optical depth tau = 0.054pm 0.007 (in this abstract we quote 68,% confidence regions on measured parameters and 95,% on upper limits). The angular acoustic scale is measured to 0.03,% precision, with 100theta_*=1.0411pm 0.0003. These results are only weakly dependent on the cosmological model and remain stable, with somewhat increased errors, in many commonly considered extensions. Assuming the base-LambdaCDM cosmology, the inferred late-Universe parameters are: Hubble constant H_0 = (67.4pm 0.5)km/s/Mpc; matter density parameter Omega_m = 0.315pm 0.007; and matter fluctuation amplitude sigma_8 = 0.811pm 0.006. We find no compelling evidence for extensions to the base-LambdaCDM model. Combining with BAO we constrain the effective extra relativistic degrees of freedom to be N_{rm eff} = 2.99pm 0.17, and the neutrino mass is tightly constrained to sum m_nu< 0.12eV. The CMB spectra continue to prefer higher lensing amplitudes than predicted in base -LambdaCDM at over 2,sigma, which pulls some parameters that affect the lensing amplitude away from the base-LambdaCDM model; however, this is not supported by the lensing reconstruction or (in models that also change the background geometry) BAO data. (Abridged)

Linear statistics for Coulomb gases: higher order cumulants

We consider N classical particles interacting via the Coulomb potential in spatial dimension d and in the presence of an external trap, at equilibrium at inverse temperature beta. In the large N limit, the particles are confined within a droplet of finite size. We study smooth linear statistics, i.e. the fluctuations of sums of the form {cal L}_N = sum_{i=1}^N f({bf x}_i), where {bf x}_i's are the positions of the particles and where f({bf x}_i) is a sufficiently regular function. There exists at present standard results for the first and second moments of {cal L}_N in the large N limit, as well as associated Central Limit Theorems in general dimension and for a wide class of confining potentials. Here we obtain explicit expressions for the higher order cumulants of {cal L}_N at large N, when the function f({bf x})=f(|{bf x}|) and the confining potential are both rotationnally invariant. A remarkable feature of our results is that these higher cumulants depend only on the value of f'(|{bf x}|) and its higher order derivatives evaluated exactly at the boundary of the droplet, which in this case is a d-dimensional sphere. In the particular two-dimensional case d=2 at the special value beta=2, a connection to the Ginibre ensemble allows us to derive these results in an alternative way using the tools of determinantal point processes. Finally we also obtain the large deviation form of the full probability distribution function of {cal L}_N.

Precision measurement of the last bound states in H_2 and determination of the H + H scattering length

The binding energies of the five bound rotational levels J=0-4 in the highest vibrational level v=14 in the X^1Sigma_g^+ ground electronic state of H_2 were measured in a three-step ultraviolet-laser experiment. Two-photon UV-photolysis of H_2S produced population in these high-lying bound states, that were subsequently interrogated at high precision via Doppler-free spectroscopy of the F^1Sigma_g^+ - X^1Sigma_g^+ system. A third UV-laser was used for detection through auto-ionizing resonances. The experimentally determined binding energies were found to be in excellent agreement with calculations based on non-adiabatic perturbation theory, also including relativistic and quantum electrodynamical contributions. The s-wave scattering length of the H + H system is derived from the binding energy of the last bound J=0 level via a direct semi-empirical approach, yielding a value of a_s = 0.2724(5) a_0, in good agreement with a result from a previously followed theoretical approach. The subtle effect of the malpha^4 relativity contribution to a_s was found to be significant. In a similar manner a value for the p-wave scattering volume is determined via the J=1 binding energy yielding a_p = -134.0000(6) a_0^3. The binding energy of the last bound state in H_2, the (v=14, J=4) level, is determined at 0.023(4) cm^{-1}, in good agreement with calculation. The effect of the hyperfine substructure caused by the two hydrogen atoms at large internuclear separation, giving rise to three distinct dissociation limits, is discussed.

Gravitational waves in massive gravity: Waveforms generated by a particle plunging into a black hole and the excitation of quasinormal modes and quasibound states

With the aim of testing massive gravity in the context of black hole physics, we investigate the gravitational radiation emitted by a massive particle plunging into a Schwarzschild black hole from slightly below the innermost stable circular orbit. To do so, we first construct the quasinormal and quasibound resonance spectra of the spin-2 massive field for odd and even parity. Then, we compute the waveforms produced by the plunging particle and study their spectral content. This allows us to highlight and interpret important phenomena in the plunge regime, including (i) the excitation of quasibound states, with particular emphasis on the amplification and slow decay of the post-ringdown phase of the even-parity dipolar mode due to harmonic resonance; (ii) during the adiabatic phase, the waveform emitted by the plunging particle is very well described by the waveform emitted by the particle living on the innermost stable circular orbit, and (iii) the regularized waveforms and their unregularized counterparts constructed from the quasinormal mode spectrum are in excellent agreement. Finally, we construct, for arbitrary directions of observation and, in particular, outside the orbital plane of the plunging particle, the regularized multipolar waveforms, i.e., the waveforms constructed by summing over partial waveforms.

Probing the shape of the Milky Way dark matter halo with hypervelocity stars: a new method

We propose a new method to determine the shape of the gravitational potential of the dark matter (DM) halo of the Milky Way (MW) with the galactocentric tangential velocities of a sample of hypervelocity stars (HVSs). We compute the trajectories of different samples of HVSs in a MW where the baryon distribution is axisymmetric and the DM potential either is spherical or is spheroidal or triaxial with radial-dependent axis ratios. We determine the shape of the DM potential with the distribution of the latitudinal velocity |v_{vartheta}| in axisymmetric Galactic potentials, or with the distribution of |v_{vartheta}| and of a function bar v_{varphi} of the azimuthal velocity in non-axisymmetric Galactic potentials. We recover the correct shape of the DM potential by comparing the distribution of |v_{vartheta}| and bar v_{varphi} against the corresponding distributions of mock samples of HVSs that traveled in DM halos of different shapes. We use the largest possible sample of sim 800 HVSs of 4~M_odot ejected with the Hills mechanism at a rate sim 10^{-4} yr^{-1}, currently outgoing, and located at more than 10 kpc from the Galactic center. In our ideal case of galactocentric velocities with null uncertainties and no observational limitations, our method recovers the correct shape of the DM potential with a success rate Sgtrsim 89% in axisymmetric Galactic potentials, and S > 96% in the explored non-axisymmetric cases. The unsuccessful cases yield axis ratios of the DM potential that are off by pm 0.1. The success rate decreases with decreasing sample size: for example, for a spherical DM halo, S drops from sim 98% to sim 38% when the sample size decreases from sim 800 to sim 40 HVSs. A robust determination of the shape of the DM potential thus requires the measure of the galactocentric velocity of a few hundred genuine HVSs.

Simulating 2+1D Lattice Quantum Electrodynamics at Finite Density with Neural Flow Wavefunctions

We present a neural flow wavefunction, Gauge-Fermion FlowNet, and use it to simulate 2+1D lattice compact quantum electrodynamics with finite density dynamical fermions. The gauge field is represented by a neural network which parameterizes a discretized flow-based transformation of the amplitude while the fermionic sign structure is represented by a neural net backflow. This approach directly represents the U(1) degree of freedom without any truncation, obeys Guass's law by construction, samples autoregressively avoiding any equilibration time, and variationally simulates Gauge-Fermion systems with sign problems accurately. In this model, we investigate confinement and string breaking phenomena in different fermion density and hopping regimes. We study the phase transition from the charge crystal phase to the vacuum phase at zero density, and observe the phase seperation and the net charge penetration blocking effect under magnetic interaction at finite density. In addition, we investigate a magnetic phase transition due to the competition effect between the kinetic energy of fermions and the magnetic energy of the gauge field. With our method, we further note potential differences on the order of the phase transitions between a continuous U(1) system and one with finite truncation. Our state-of-the-art neural network approach opens up new possibilities to study different gauge theories coupled to dynamical matter in higher dimensions.

Detection asymmetry in solar energetic particle events

Context. Solar energetic particles (SEPs) are detected in interplanetary space in association with flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the Sun. The magnetic connection between the observing spacecraft and the solar active region (AR) source of the event is a key parameter in determining whether SEPs are observed and the properties of the particle event. Aims. We investigate whether an east-west asymmetry in the detection of SEP events is present in observations and discuss its possible link to corotation of magnetic flux tubes with the Sun. Methods. We used a published dataset of 239 CMEs recorded between 2006 and 2017 and having source regions both on the front side and far side of the Sun as seen from Earth. We produced distributions of occurrence of in-situ SEP intensity enhancements associated with the CME events, versus \Delta \phi, the separation in longitude between the source active region and the magnetic footpoint of the observing spacecraft based on the nominal Parker spiral. We focused on protons of energy >10 MeV measured by the STEREO A, STEREO B and GOES spacecraft at 1 au. We also considered the occurrence of 71-112 keV electron events detected by MESSENGER between 0.31 and 0.47 au. Results. We find an east-west asymmetry in the detection of >10 MeV proton events and of 71-112 keV electron events. For protons, observers for which the source AR is on the east side of the spacecraft footpoint and not well connected (-180 < \Delta \phi < -40) are 93% more likely to detect an SEP event compared to observers with +40 < \Delta \phi < +180. The asymmetry may be a signature of corotation of magnetic flux tubes with the Sun, given that for events with \Delta \phi < 0 corotation sweeps the particle-filled flux tubes towards the observing spacecraft, while for \Delta \phi > 0 it takes them away from it.

Indirect measurement of atomic magneto-optical rotation via Hilbert transform

The Kramers-Kronig relations are a pivotal foundation of linear optics and atomic physics, embedding a physical connection between the real and imaginary components of any causal response function. A mathematically equivalent, but simpler, approach instead utilises the Hilbert transform. In a previous study, the Hilbert transform was applied to absorption spectra in order to infer the sole refractive index of an atomic medium in the absence of an external magnetic field. The presence of a magnetic field causes the medium to become birefringent and dichroic, and therefore it is instead characterised by two refractive indices. In this study, we apply the same Hilbert transform technique to independently measure both refractive indices of a birefringent atomic medium, leading to an indirect measurement of atomic magneto-optical rotation. Key to this measurement is the insight that inputting specific light polarisations into an atomic medium induces absorption associated with only one of the refractive indices. We show this is true in two configurations, commonly referred to in literature as the Faraday and Voigt geometries, which differ by the magnetic field orientation with respect to the light wavevector. For both cases, we measure the two refractive indices independently for a Rb thermal vapour in a 0.6 T magnetic field, finding excellent agreement with theory. This study further emphasises the application of the Hilbert transform to the field of quantum and atomic optics in the linear regime.

A helical magnetic field in quasar NRAO150 revealed by Faraday rotation

Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) are some of the most luminous and extreme environments in the Universe. The central engines of AGN, believed to be super-massive black-holes, are fed by accretion discs threaded by magnetic fields within a dense magneto-ionic medium. We report our findings from polarimetric Very-long-baseline Interferometry (VLBI) observations of quasar NRAO150 taken in October 2022 using a combined network of the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) and Effelsberg 100-m Radio Telescope. These observations are the first co-temporal multi-frequency polarimetric VLBI observations of NRAO150 at frequencies above 15GHz. We use the new VLBI polarization calibration procedure, GPCAL, with polarization observations of frequencies of 12GHz, 15GHz, 24GHz, and 43GHz of NRAO150. From these observations, we measure Faraday rotation. Using our measurement of Faraday rotation, we also derive the intrinsic electric vector position angle (EVPA0) for the source. As a complementary measurement we determine the behavior of polarization as a function of observed frequency. The polarization from NRAO150 only comes from the core region, with a peak polarization intensity occurring at 24GHz. Across the core region of NRAO150 we see clear gradients in Faraday rotation and EVPA0 values that are aligned with the direction of the jet curving around the core region. We find that for the majority of the polarized region the polarization fraction is greater at higher frequencies, with intrinsic polarization fractions in the core 3%. The Faraday rotation gradients and circular patterns in EVPA0 are strong evidence for a helical/toroidal magnetic field, and the presence of low intrinsic polarization fractions indicate that the polarized emission and hence the helical/toroidal magnetic field, occur within the innermost jet.

Stochastic acceleration in arbitrary astrophysical environments

Turbulent magnetic fields are to some extent a universal feature in astrophysical phenomena. Charged particles that encounter these turbulence get on average accelerated according to the so-called second-order Fermi process. However, in most astrophysical environments there are additional competing processes, such as different kinds of first-order energy changes and particle escape, that effect the resulting momentum distribution of the particles. In this work we provide to our knowledge the first semi-analytical solution of the isotropic steady-state momentum diffusion equation including continuous and catastrophic momentum changes that can be applied to any arbitrary astrophysical system of interest. Here, we adopt that the assigned magnetic turbulence is constrained on a finite range and the particle flux vanishes beyond these boundaries. Consequently, we show that the so-called pile-up bump -- that has for some special cases long been established -- is a universal feature of stochastic acceleration that emerges around the momentum chi_{rm eq} where acceleration and continuous loss are in equilibrium if the particle's residence time in the system is sufficient at chi_{rm eq}. In general, the impact of continuous and catastrophic momentum changes plays a crucial role in the shape of the steady-state momentum distribution of the accelerated particles, where simplified unbroken power-law approximations are often not adequate.

Visual Dexterity: In-Hand Reorientation of Novel and Complex Object Shapes

In-hand object reorientation is necessary for performing many dexterous manipulation tasks, such as tool use in less structured environments that remain beyond the reach of current robots. Prior works built reorientation systems assuming one or many of the following: reorienting only specific objects with simple shapes, limited range of reorientation, slow or quasistatic manipulation, simulation-only results, the need for specialized and costly sensor suites, and other constraints which make the system infeasible for real-world deployment. We present a general object reorientation controller that does not make these assumptions. It uses readings from a single commodity depth camera to dynamically reorient complex and new object shapes by any rotation in real-time, with the median reorientation time being close to seven seconds. The controller is trained using reinforcement learning in simulation and evaluated in the real world on new object shapes not used for training, including the most challenging scenario of reorienting objects held in the air by a downward-facing hand that must counteract gravity during reorientation. Our hardware platform only uses open-source components that cost less than five thousand dollars. Although we demonstrate the ability to overcome assumptions in prior work, there is ample scope for improving absolute performance. For instance, the challenging duck-shaped object not used for training was dropped in 56 percent of the trials. When it was not dropped, our controller reoriented the object within 0.4 radians (23 degrees) 75 percent of the time. Videos are available at: https://taochenshh.github.io/projects/visual-dexterity.

Fair coins tend to land on the same side they started: Evidence from 350,757 flips

Many people have flipped coins but few have stopped to ponder the statistical and physical intricacies of the process. We collected 350{,}757 coin flips to test the counterintuitive prediction from a physics model of human coin tossing developed by Diaconis, Holmes, and Montgomery (DHM; 2007). The model asserts that when people flip an ordinary coin, it tends to land on the same side it started -- DHM estimated the probability of a same-side outcome to be about 51\%. Our data lend strong support to this precise prediction: the coins landed on the same side more often than not, Pr(same side) = 0.508, 95\% credible interval (CI) [0.506, 0.509], BF_{same-side bias} = 2359. Furthermore, the data revealed considerable between-people variation in the degree of this same-side bias. Our data also confirmed the generic prediction that when people flip an ordinary coin -- with the initial side-up randomly determined -- it is equally likely to land heads or tails: Pr(heads) = 0.500, 95\% CI [0.498, 0.502], BF_{heads-tails bias} = 0.182. Furthermore, this lack of heads-tails bias does not appear to vary across coins. Additional analyses revealed that the within-people same-side bias decreased as more coins were flipped, an effect that is consistent with the possibility that practice makes people flip coins in a less wobbly fashion. Our data therefore provide strong evidence that when some (but not all) people flip a fair coin, it tends to land on the same side it started.