Daily Papers

We introduce TransDiff, the first image generation model that marries Autoregressive (AR) Transformer with diffusion models. In this joint modeling framework, TransDiff encodes labels and images into high-level semantic features and employs a diffusion model to estimate the distribution of image samples. On the ImageNet 256x256 benchmark, TransDiff significantly outperforms other image generation models based on standalone AR Transformer or diffusion models. Specifically, TransDiff achieves a Fr\'echet Inception Distance (FID) of 1.61 and an Inception Score (IS) of 293.4, and further provides x2 faster inference latency compared to state-of-the-art methods based on AR Transformer and x112 faster inference compared to diffusion-only models. Furthermore, building on the TransDiff model, we introduce a novel image generation paradigm called Multi-Reference Autoregression (MRAR), which performs autoregressive generation by predicting the next image. MRAR enables the model to reference multiple previously generated images, thereby facilitating the learning of more diverse representations and improving the quality of generated images in subsequent iterations. By applying MRAR, the performance of TransDiff is improved, with the FID reduced from 1.61 to 1.42. We expect TransDiff to open up a new frontier in the field of image generation.

Recent advances in autoregressive (AR) models with continuous tokens for image generation show promising results by eliminating the need for discrete tokenization. However, these models face efficiency challenges due to their sequential token generation nature and reliance on computationally intensive diffusion-based sampling. We present ECAR (Efficient Continuous Auto-Regressive Image Generation via Multistage Modeling), an approach that addresses these limitations through two intertwined innovations: (1) a stage-wise continuous token generation strategy that reduces computational complexity and provides progressively refined token maps as hierarchical conditions, and (2) a multistage flow-based distribution modeling method that transforms only partial-denoised distributions at each stage comparing to complete denoising in normal diffusion models. Holistically, ECAR operates by generating tokens at increasing resolutions while simultaneously denoising the image at each stage. This design not only reduces token-to-image transformation cost by a factor of the stage number but also enables parallel processing at the token level. Our approach not only enhances computational efficiency but also aligns naturally with image generation principles by operating in continuous token space and following a hierarchical generation process from coarse to fine details. Experimental results demonstrate that ECAR achieves comparable image quality to DiT Peebles & Xie [2023] while requiring 10times FLOPs reduction and 5times speedup to generate a 256times256 image.

Autoregressive (AR) modeling has achieved remarkable success in natural language processing by enabling models to generate text with coherence and contextual understanding through next token prediction. Recently, in image generation, VAR proposes scale-wise autoregressive modeling, which extends the next token prediction to the next scale prediction, preserving the 2D structure of images. However, VAR encounters two primary challenges: (1) its complex and rigid scale design limits generalization in next scale prediction, and (2) the generator's dependence on a discrete tokenizer with the same complex scale structure restricts modularity and flexibility in updating the tokenizer. To address these limitations, we introduce FlowAR, a general next scale prediction method featuring a streamlined scale design, where each subsequent scale is simply double the previous one. This eliminates the need for VAR's intricate multi-scale residual tokenizer and enables the use of any off-the-shelf Variational AutoEncoder (VAE). Our simplified design enhances generalization in next scale prediction and facilitates the integration of Flow Matching for high-quality image synthesis. We validate the effectiveness of FlowAR on the challenging ImageNet-256 benchmark, demonstrating superior generation performance compared to previous methods. Codes will be available at https://github.com/OliverRensu/FlowAR.

This paper presents Randomized AutoRegressive modeling (RAR) for visual generation, which sets a new state-of-the-art performance on the image generation task while maintaining full compatibility with language modeling frameworks. The proposed RAR is simple: during a standard autoregressive training process with a next-token prediction objective, the input sequence-typically ordered in raster form-is randomly permuted into different factorization orders with a probability r, where r starts at 1 and linearly decays to 0 over the course of training. This annealing training strategy enables the model to learn to maximize the expected likelihood over all factorization orders and thus effectively improve the model's capability of modeling bidirectional contexts. Importantly, RAR preserves the integrity of the autoregressive modeling framework, ensuring full compatibility with language modeling while significantly improving performance in image generation. On the ImageNet-256 benchmark, RAR achieves an FID score of 1.48, not only surpassing prior state-of-the-art autoregressive image generators but also outperforming leading diffusion-based and masked transformer-based methods. Code and models will be made available at https://github.com/bytedance/1d-tokenizer

It is widely agreed that reference-based super-resolution (RefSR) achieves superior results by referring to similar high quality images, compared to single image super-resolution (SISR). Intuitively, the more references, the better performance. However, previous RefSR methods have all focused on single-reference image training, while multiple reference images are often available in testing or practical applications. The root cause of such training-testing mismatch is the absence of publicly available multi-reference SR training datasets, which greatly hinders research efforts on multi-reference super-resolution. To this end, we construct a large-scale, multi-reference super-resolution dataset, named LMR. It contains 112,142 groups of 300x300 training images, which is 10x of the existing largest RefSR dataset. The image size is also much larger. More importantly, each group is equipped with 5 reference images with different similarity levels. Furthermore, we propose a new baseline method for multi-reference super-resolution: MRefSR, including a Multi-Reference Attention Module (MAM) for feature fusion of an arbitrary number of reference images, and a Spatial Aware Filtering Module (SAFM) for the fused feature selection. The proposed MRefSR achieves significant improvements over state-of-the-art approaches on both quantitative and qualitative evaluations. Our code and data would be made available soon.

Autoregressive (AR) modeling, known for its next-token prediction paradigm, underpins state-of-the-art language and visual generative models. Traditionally, a ``token'' is treated as the smallest prediction unit, often a discrete symbol in language or a quantized patch in vision. However, the optimal token definition for 2D image structures remains an open question. Moreover, AR models suffer from exposure bias, where teacher forcing during training leads to error accumulation at inference. In this paper, we propose xAR, a generalized AR framework that extends the notion of a token to an entity X, which can represent an individual patch token, a cell (a ktimes k grouping of neighboring patches), a subsample (a non-local grouping of distant patches), a scale (coarse-to-fine resolution), or even a whole image. Additionally, we reformulate discrete token classification as continuous entity regression, leveraging flow-matching methods at each AR step. This approach conditions training on noisy entities instead of ground truth tokens, leading to Noisy Context Learning, which effectively alleviates exposure bias. As a result, xAR offers two key advantages: (1) it enables flexible prediction units that capture different contextual granularity and spatial structures, and (2) it mitigates exposure bias by avoiding reliance on teacher forcing. On ImageNet-256 generation benchmark, our base model, xAR-B (172M), outperforms DiT-XL/SiT-XL (675M) while achieving 20times faster inference. Meanwhile, xAR-H sets a new state-of-the-art with an FID of 1.24, running 2.2times faster than the previous best-performing model without relying on vision foundation modules (\eg, DINOv2) or advanced guidance interval sampling.

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) is important for various domains but is confronted by challenges in handling the complex temporal-contextual relationships. As multivariate input models underperforming some recent univariate counterparts, we posit that the issue lies in the inefficiency of existing multivariate LTSF Transformers to model series-wise relationships: the characteristic differences between series are often captured incorrectly. To address this, we introduce ARM: a multivariate temporal-contextual adaptive learning method, which is an enhanced architecture specifically designed for multivariate LTSF modelling. ARM employs Adaptive Univariate Effect Learning (AUEL), Random Dropping (RD) training strategy, and Multi-kernel Local Smoothing (MKLS), to better handle individual series temporal patterns and correctly learn inter-series dependencies. ARM demonstrates superior performance on multiple benchmarks without significantly increasing computational costs compared to vanilla Transformer, thereby advancing the state-of-the-art in LTSF. ARM is also generally applicable to other LTSF architecture beyond vanilla Transformer.

We present Autoregressive Representation Alignment (ARRA), a new training framework that unlocks global-coherent text-to-image generation in autoregressive LLMs without architectural changes. Unlike prior work that requires complex architectural redesigns, ARRA aligns LLM hidden states with visual representations from external visual foundational models via a global visual alignment loss and a hybrid token, <HYBNEXT>. This token enforces dual constraints: local next-token prediction and global semantic distillation, enabling LLMs to implicitly learn spatial and contextual coherence while retaining their original autoregressive paradigm. Extensive experiments validate ARRA's plug-and-play versatility. When training from text-generation-only LLMs or random initialization, ARRA reduces FID by 25.5% (MIMIC-CXR), 8.8% (DeepEyeNet), and 7.5% (ImageNet) for advanced autoregressive LLMs like Chameleon and LlamaGen, all without framework modifications. For domain adaption, ARRA aligns general-purpose LLMs with specialized models (e.g., BioMedCLIP), achieving an 18.6% FID reduction over direct fine-tuning on medical imaging (MIMIC-CXR). By demonstrating that training objective redesign -- not just architectural innovation -- can resolve cross-modal global coherence challenges, ARRA offers a complementary paradigm for advancing autoregressive models. Code and models will be released to advance autoregressive image generation.

We introduce RandAR, a decoder-only visual autoregressive (AR) model capable of generating images in arbitrary token orders. Unlike previous decoder-only AR models that rely on a predefined generation order, RandAR removes this inductive bias, unlocking new capabilities in decoder-only generation. Our essential design enables random order by inserting a "position instruction token" before each image token to be predicted, representing the spatial location of the next image token. Trained on randomly permuted token sequences -- a more challenging task than fixed-order generation, RandAR achieves comparable performance to its conventional raster-order counterpart. More importantly, decoder-only transformers trained from random orders acquire new capabilities. For the efficiency bottleneck of AR models, RandAR adopts parallel decoding with KV-Cache at inference time, enjoying 2.5x acceleration without sacrificing generation quality. Additionally, RandAR supports inpainting, outpainting and resolution extrapolation in a zero-shot manner. We hope RandAR inspires new directions for decoder-only visual generation models and broadens their applications across diverse scenarios. Our project page is at https://rand-ar.github.io/.

Autoregressive modeling has been a huge success in the field of natural language processing (NLP). Recently, autoregressive models have emerged as a significant area of focus in computer vision, where they excel in producing high-quality visual content. Autoregressive models in NLP typically operate on subword tokens. However, the representation strategy in computer vision can vary in different levels, i.e., pixel-level, token-level, or scale-level, reflecting the diverse and hierarchical nature of visual data compared to the sequential structure of language. This survey comprehensively examines the literature on autoregressive models applied to vision. To improve readability for researchers from diverse research backgrounds, we start with preliminary sequence representation and modeling in vision. Next, we divide the fundamental frameworks of visual autoregressive models into three general sub-categories, including pixel-based, token-based, and scale-based models based on the strategy of representation. We then explore the interconnections between autoregressive models and other generative models. Furthermore, we present a multi-faceted categorization of autoregressive models in computer vision, including image generation, video generation, 3D generation, and multi-modal generation. We also elaborate on their applications in diverse domains, including emerging domains such as embodied AI and 3D medical AI, with about 250 related references. Finally, we highlight the current challenges to autoregressive models in vision with suggestions about potential research directions. We have also set up a Github repository to organize the papers included in this survey at: https://github.com/ChaofanTao/Autoregressive-Models-in-Vision-Survey.

Real-world data is high-dimensional: a book, image, or musical performance can easily contain hundreds of thousands of elements even after compression. However, the most commonly used autoregressive models, Transformers, are prohibitively expensive to scale to the number of inputs and layers needed to capture this long-range structure. We develop Perceiver AR, an autoregressive, modality-agnostic architecture which uses cross-attention to map long-range inputs to a small number of latents while also maintaining end-to-end causal masking. Perceiver AR can directly attend to over a hundred thousand tokens, enabling practical long-context density estimation without the need for hand-crafted sparsity patterns or memory mechanisms. When trained on images or music, Perceiver AR generates outputs with clear long-term coherence and structure. Our architecture also obtains state-of-the-art likelihood on long-sequence benchmarks, including 64 x 64 ImageNet images and PG-19 books.

This work presents SimpleAR, a vanilla autoregressive visual generation framework without complex architecure modifications. Through careful exploration of training and inference optimization, we demonstrate that: 1) with only 0.5B parameters, our model can generate 1024x1024 resolution images with high fidelity, and achieve competitive results on challenging text-to-image benchmarks, e.g., 0.59 on GenEval and 79.66 on DPG; 2) both supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) training could lead to significant improvements on generation aesthectics and prompt alignment; and 3) when optimized with inference acceleraton techniques like vLLM, the time for SimpleAR to generate an 1024x1024 image could be reduced to around 14 seconds. By sharing these findings and open-sourcing the code, we hope to reveal the potential of autoregressive visual generation and encourage more participation in this research field. Code is available at https://github.com/wdrink/SimpleAR.

The two dominant approaches to neural text generation are fully autoregressive models, using serial beam search decoding, and non-autoregressive models, using parallel decoding with no output dependencies. This work proposes an autoregressive model with sub-linear parallel time generation. Noting that conditional random fields with bounded context can be decoded in parallel, we propose an efficient cascaded decoding approach for generating high-quality output. To parameterize this cascade, we introduce a Markov transformer, a variant of the popular fully autoregressive model that allows us to simultaneously decode with specific autoregressive context cutoffs. This approach requires only a small modification from standard autoregressive training, while showing competitive accuracy/speed tradeoff compared to existing methods on five machine translation datasets.

Existing autoregressive (AR) image generative models use a token-by-token generation schema. That is, they predict a per-token probability distribution and sample the next token from that distribution. The main challenge is how to model the complex distribution of high-dimensional tokens. Previous methods either are too simplistic to fit the distribution or result in slow generation speed. Instead of fitting the distribution of the whole tokens, we explore using a AR model to generate each token in a feature-by-feature way, i.e., taking the generated features as input and generating the next feature. Based on that, we propose ARINAR (AR-in-AR), a bi-level AR model. The outer AR layer take previous tokens as input, predicts a condition vector z for the next token. The inner layer, conditional on z, generates features of the next token autoregressively. In this way, the inner layer only needs to model the distribution of a single feature, for example, using a simple Gaussian Mixture Model. On the ImageNet 256x256 image generation task, ARINAR-B with 213M parameters achieves an FID of 2.75, which is comparable to the state-of-the-art MAR-B model (FID=2.31), while five times faster than the latter.

Sequential dependencies present a fundamental bottleneck in deploying large-scale autoregressive models, particularly for real-time applications. While traditional optimization approaches like pruning and quantization often compromise model quality, recent advances in generation-refinement frameworks demonstrate that this trade-off can be significantly mitigated. This survey presents a comprehensive taxonomy of generation-refinement frameworks, analyzing methods across autoregressive sequence tasks. We categorize methods based on their generation strategies (from simple n-gram prediction to sophisticated draft models) and refinement mechanisms (including single-pass verification and iterative approaches). Through systematic analysis of both algorithmic innovations and system-level implementations, we examine deployment strategies across computing environments and explore applications spanning text, images, and speech generation. This systematic examination of both theoretical frameworks and practical implementations provides a foundation for future research in efficient autoregressive decoding.

Visual autoregressive models typically adhere to a raster-order ``next-token prediction" paradigm, which overlooks the spatial and temporal locality inherent in visual content. Specifically, visual tokens exhibit significantly stronger correlations with their spatially or temporally adjacent tokens compared to those that are distant. In this paper, we propose Neighboring Autoregressive Modeling (NAR), a novel paradigm that formulates autoregressive visual generation as a progressive outpainting procedure, following a near-to-far ``next-neighbor prediction" mechanism. Starting from an initial token, the remaining tokens are decoded in ascending order of their Manhattan distance from the initial token in the spatial-temporal space, progressively expanding the boundary of the decoded region. To enable parallel prediction of multiple adjacent tokens in the spatial-temporal space, we introduce a set of dimension-oriented decoding heads, each predicting the next token along a mutually orthogonal dimension. During inference, all tokens adjacent to the decoded tokens are processed in parallel, substantially reducing the model forward steps for generation. Experiments on ImageNet256times 256 and UCF101 demonstrate that NAR achieves 2.4times and 8.6times higher throughput respectively, while obtaining superior FID/FVD scores for both image and video generation tasks compared to the PAR-4X approach. When evaluating on text-to-image generation benchmark GenEval, NAR with 0.8B parameters outperforms Chameleon-7B while using merely 0.4 of the training data. Code is available at https://github.com/ThisisBillhe/NAR.

The development of autoregressive modeling (AM) in computer vision lags behind natural language processing (NLP) in self-supervised pre-training. This is mainly caused by the challenge that images are not sequential signals and lack a natural order when applying autoregressive modeling. In this study, inspired by human beings' way of grasping an image, i.e., focusing on the main object first, we present a semantic-aware autoregressive image modeling (SemAIM) method to tackle this challenge. The key insight of SemAIM is to autoregressive model images from the semantic patches to the less semantic patches. To this end, we first calculate a semantic-aware permutation of patches according to their feature similarities and then perform the autoregression procedure based on the permutation. In addition, considering that the raw pixels of patches are low-level signals and are not ideal prediction targets for learning high-level semantic representation, we also explore utilizing the patch features as the prediction targets. Extensive experiments are conducted on a broad range of downstream tasks, including image classification, object detection, and instance/semantic segmentation, to evaluate the performance of SemAIM. The results demonstrate SemAIM achieves state-of-the-art performance compared with other self-supervised methods. Specifically, with ViT-B, SemAIM achieves 84.1% top-1 accuracy for fine-tuning on ImageNet, 51.3% AP and 45.4% AP for object detection and instance segmentation on COCO, which outperforms the vanilla MAE by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 0.5%, respectively.

There exists recent work in computer vision, named VAR, that proposes a new autoregressive paradigm for image generation. Diverging from the vanilla next-token prediction, VAR structurally reformulates the image generation into a coarse to fine next-scale prediction. In this paper, we show that this scale-wise autoregressive framework can be effectively decoupled into intra-scale modeling, which captures local spatial dependencies within each scale, and inter-scale modeling, which models cross-scale relationships progressively from coarse-to-fine scales. This decoupling structure allows to rebuild VAR in a more computationally efficient manner. Specifically, for intra-scale modeling -- crucial for generating high-fidelity images -- we retain the original bidirectional self-attention design to ensure comprehensive modeling; for inter-scale modeling, which semantically connects different scales but is computationally intensive, we apply linear-complexity mechanisms like Mamba to substantially reduce computational overhead. We term this new framework M-VAR. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms existing models in both image quality and generation speed. For example, our 1.5B model, with fewer parameters and faster inference speed, outperforms the largest VAR-d30-2B. Moreover, our largest model M-VAR-d32 impressively registers 1.78 FID on ImageNet 256times256 and outperforms the prior-art autoregressive models LlamaGen/VAR by 0.4/0.19 and popular diffusion models LDM/DiT by 1.82/0.49, respectively. Code is avaiable at https://github.com/OliverRensu/MVAR.

Transformers have emerged as a preferred model for many tasks in natural langugage processing and vision. Recent efforts on training and deploying Transformers more efficiently have identified many strategies to approximate the self-attention matrix, a key module in a Transformer architecture. Effective ideas include various prespecified sparsity patterns, low-rank basis expansions and combinations thereof. In this paper, we revisit classical Multiresolution Analysis (MRA) concepts such as Wavelets, whose potential value in this setting remains underexplored thus far. We show that simple approximations based on empirical feedback and design choices informed by modern hardware and implementation challenges, eventually yield a MRA-based approach for self-attention with an excellent performance profile across most criteria of interest. We undertake an extensive set of experiments and demonstrate that this multi-resolution scheme outperforms most efficient self-attention proposals and is favorable for both short and long sequences. Code is available at https://github.com/mlpen/mra-attention.

Recent advancements in large language models and their multi-modal extensions have demonstrated the effectiveness of unifying generation and understanding through autoregressive next-token prediction. However, despite the critical role of 3D structural generation and understanding ({3D GU}) in AI for science, these tasks have largely evolved independently, with autoregressive methods remaining underexplored. To bridge this gap, we introduce Uni-3DAR, a unified framework that seamlessly integrates {3D GU} tasks via autoregressive prediction. At its core, Uni-3DAR employs a novel hierarchical tokenization that compresses 3D space using an octree, leveraging the inherent sparsity of 3D structures. It then applies an additional tokenization for fine-grained structural details, capturing key attributes such as atom types and precise spatial coordinates in microscopic 3D structures. We further propose two optimizations to enhance efficiency and effectiveness. The first is a two-level subtree compression strategy, which reduces the octree token sequence by up to 8x. The second is a masked next-token prediction mechanism tailored for dynamically varying token positions, significantly boosting model performance. By combining these strategies, Uni-3DAR successfully unifies diverse {3D GU} tasks within a single autoregressive framework. Extensive experiments across multiple microscopic {3D GU} tasks, including molecules, proteins, polymers, and crystals, validate its effectiveness and versatility. Notably, Uni-3DAR surpasses previous state-of-the-art diffusion models by a substantial margin, achieving up to 256\% relative improvement while delivering inference speeds up to 21.8x faster. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/dptech-corp/Uni-3DAR.

We propose Axial Transformers, a self-attention-based autoregressive model for images and other data organized as high dimensional tensors. Existing autoregressive models either suffer from excessively large computational resource requirements for high dimensional data, or make compromises in terms of distribution expressiveness or ease of implementation in order to decrease resource requirements. Our architecture, by contrast, maintains both full expressiveness over joint distributions over data and ease of implementation with standard deep learning frameworks, while requiring reasonable memory and computation and achieving state-of-the-art results on standard generative modeling benchmarks. Our models are based on axial attention, a simple generalization of self-attention that naturally aligns with the multiple dimensions of the tensors in both the encoding and the decoding settings. Notably the proposed structure of the layers allows for the vast majority of the context to be computed in parallel during decoding without introducing any independence assumptions. This semi-parallel structure goes a long way to making decoding from even a very large Axial Transformer broadly applicable. We demonstrate state-of-the-art results for the Axial Transformer on the ImageNet-32 and ImageNet-64 image benchmarks as well as on the BAIR Robotic Pushing video benchmark. We open source the implementation of Axial Transformers.

Time-series forecasting is one of the most active research topics in artificial intelligence. Applications in real-world time series should consider two factors for achieving reliable predictions: modeling dynamic dependencies among multiple variables and adjusting the model's intrinsic hyperparameters. A still open gap in that literature is that statistical and ensemble learning approaches systematically present lower predictive performance than deep learning methods. They generally disregard the data sequence aspect entangled with multivariate data represented in more than one time series. Conversely, this work presents a novel neural network architecture for time-series forecasting that combines the power of graph evolution with deep recurrent learning on distinct data distributions; we named our method Recurrent Graph Evolution Neural Network (ReGENN). The idea is to infer multiple multivariate relationships between co-occurring time-series by assuming that the temporal data depends not only on inner variables and intra-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from itself) but also on outer variables and inter-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from other-selves). An extensive set of experiments was conducted comparing ReGENN with dozens of ensemble methods and classical statistical ones, showing sound improvement of up to 64.87% over the competing algorithms. Furthermore, we present an analysis of the intermediate weights arising from ReGENN, showing that by looking at inter and intra-temporal relationships simultaneously, time-series forecasting is majorly improved if paying attention to how multiple multivariate data synchronously evolve.

Context-aware STR methods typically use internal autoregressive (AR) language models (LM). Inherent limitations of AR models motivated two-stage methods which employ an external LM. The conditional independence of the external LM on the input image may cause it to erroneously rectify correct predictions, leading to significant inefficiencies. Our method, PARSeq, learns an ensemble of internal AR LMs with shared weights using Permutation Language Modeling. It unifies context-free non-AR and context-aware AR inference, and iterative refinement using bidirectional context. Using synthetic training data, PARSeq achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) results in STR benchmarks (91.9% accuracy) and more challenging datasets. It establishes new SOTA results (96.0% accuracy) when trained on real data. PARSeq is optimal on accuracy vs parameter count, FLOPS, and latency because of its simple, unified structure and parallel token processing. Due to its extensive use of attention, it is robust on arbitrarily-oriented text which is common in real-world images. Code, pretrained weights, and data are available at: https://github.com/baudm/parseq.

Autoregressive (AR) models for image generation typically adopt a two-stage paradigm of vector quantization and raster-scan ``next-token prediction", inspired by its great success in language modeling. However, due to the huge modality gap, image autoregressive models may require a systematic reevaluation from two perspectives: tokenizer format and regression direction. In this paper, we introduce the frequency progressive autoregressive (FAR) paradigm and instantiate FAR with the continuous tokenizer. Specifically, we identify spectral dependency as the desirable regression direction for FAR, wherein higher-frequency components build upon the lower one to progressively construct a complete image. This design seamlessly fits the causality requirement for autoregressive models and preserves the unique spatial locality of image data. Besides, we delve into the integration of FAR and the continuous tokenizer, introducing a series of techniques to address optimization challenges and improve the efficiency of training and inference processes. We demonstrate the efficacy of FAR through comprehensive experiments on the ImageNet dataset and verify its potential on text-to-image generation.

Autoregressive models have achieved promising results in natural language processing. However, for image generation tasks, they encounter substantial challenges in effectively capturing long-range dependencies, managing computational costs, and most crucially, defining meaningful autoregressive sequences that reflect natural image hierarchies. To address these issues, we present Next-Frequency Image Generation (NFIG), a novel framework that decomposes the image generation process into multiple frequency-guided stages. Our approach first generates low-frequency components to establish global structure with fewer tokens, then progressively adds higher-frequency details, following the natural spectral hierarchy of images. This principled autoregressive sequence not only improves the quality of generated images by better capturing true causal relationships between image components, but also significantly reduces computational overhead during inference. Extensive experiments demonstrate that NFIG achieves state-of-the-art performance with fewer steps, offering a more efficient solution for image generation, with 1.25times speedup compared to VAR-d20 while achieving better performance (FID: 2.81) on the ImageNet-256 benchmark. We hope that our insight of incorporating frequency-domain knowledge to guide autoregressive sequence design will shed light on future research. We will make our code publicly available upon acceptance of the paper.

Attention-based models such as Transformers and recurrent models like state space models (SSMs) have emerged as successful methods for autoregressive sequence modeling. Although both enable parallel training, none enable parallel generation due to their autoregressiveness. We propose the variational SSM (VSSM), a variational autoencoder (VAE) where both the encoder and decoder are SSMs. Since sampling the latent variables and decoding them with the SSM can be parallelized, both training and generation can be conducted in parallel. Moreover, the decoder recurrence allows generation to be resumed without reprocessing the whole sequence. Finally, we propose the autoregressive VSSM that can be conditioned on a partial realization of the sequence, as is common in language generation tasks. Interestingly, the autoregressive VSSM still enables parallel generation. We highlight on toy problems (MNIST, CIFAR) the empirical gains in speed-up and show that it competes with traditional models in terms of generation quality (Transformer, Mamba SSM).

We introduce AiM, an autoregressive (AR) image generative model based on Mamba architecture. AiM employs Mamba, a novel state-space model characterized by its exceptional performance for long-sequence modeling with linear time complexity, to supplant the commonly utilized Transformers in AR image generation models, aiming to achieve both superior generation quality and enhanced inference speed. Unlike existing methods that adapt Mamba to handle two-dimensional signals via multi-directional scan, AiM directly utilizes the next-token prediction paradigm for autoregressive image generation. This approach circumvents the need for extensive modifications to enable Mamba to learn 2D spatial representations. By implementing straightforward yet strategically targeted modifications for visual generative tasks, we preserve Mamba's core structure, fully exploiting its efficient long-sequence modeling capabilities and scalability. We provide AiM models in various scales, with parameter counts ranging from 148M to 1.3B. On the ImageNet1K 256*256 benchmark, our best AiM model achieves a FID of 2.21, surpassing all existing AR models of comparable parameter counts and demonstrating significant competitiveness against diffusion models, with 2 to 10 times faster inference speed. Code is available at https://github.com/hp-l33/AiM

Scene text recognition (STR) methods have struggled to attain high accuracy and fast inference speed. Autoregressive (AR)-based models implement the recognition in a character-by-character manner, showing superiority in accuracy but with slow inference speed. Alternatively, parallel decoding (PD)-based models infer all characters in a single decoding pass, offering faster inference speed but generally worse accuracy. We first present an empirical study of AR decoding in STR, and discover that the AR decoder not only models linguistic context, but also provides guidance on visual context perception. Consequently, we propose Context Perception Parallel Decoder (CPPD) to predict the character sequence in a PD pass. CPPD devises a character counting module to infer the occurrence count of each character, and a character ordering module to deduce the content-free reading order and placeholders. Meanwhile, the character prediction task associates the placeholders with characters. They together build a comprehensive recognition context. We construct a series of CPPD models and also plug the proposed modules into existing STR decoders. Experiments on both English and Chinese benchmarks demonstrate that the CPPD models achieve highly competitive accuracy while running approximately 8x faster than their AR-based counterparts. Moreover, the plugged models achieve significant accuracy improvements. Code is at https://github.com/PaddlePaddle/PaddleOCR/blob/dygraph/doc/doc_en/algorithm_rec_cppd_en.md{this https URL}.

Modeling multivariate time series is a well-established problem with a wide range of applications from healthcare to financial markets. Traditional State Space Models (SSMs) are classical approaches for univariate time series modeling due to their simplicity and expressive power to represent linear dependencies. They, however, have fundamentally limited expressive power to capture non-linear dependencies, are slow in practice, and fail to model the inter-variate information flow. Despite recent attempts to improve the expressive power of SSMs by using deep structured SSMs, the existing methods are either limited to univariate time series, fail to model complex patterns (e.g., seasonal patterns), fail to dynamically model the dependencies of variate and time dimensions, and/or are input-independent. We present Chimera that uses two input-dependent 2-D SSM heads with different discretization processes to learn long-term progression and seasonal patterns. To improve the efficiency of complex 2D recurrence, we present a fast training using a new 2-dimensional parallel selective scan. We further present and discuss 2-dimensional Mamba and Mamba-2 as the spacial cases of our 2D SSM. Our experimental evaluation shows the superior performance of Chimera on extensive and diverse benchmarks, including ECG and speech time series classification, long-term and short-term time series forecasting, and time series anomaly detection.

Time series foundation models have demonstrated impressive performance as zero-shot forecasters. However, achieving effectively unified training on time series remains an open challenge. Existing approaches introduce some level of model specialization to account for the highly heterogeneous nature of time series data. For instance, Moirai pursues unified training by employing multiple input/output projection layers, each tailored to handle time series at a specific frequency. Similarly, TimesFM maintains a frequency embedding dictionary for this purpose. We identify two major drawbacks to this human-imposed frequency-level model specialization: (1) Frequency is not a reliable indicator of the underlying patterns in time series. For example, time series with different frequencies can display similar patterns, while those with the same frequency may exhibit varied patterns. (2) Non-stationarity is an inherent property of real-world time series, leading to varied distributions even within a short context window of a single time series. Frequency-level specialization is too coarse-grained to capture this level of diversity. To address these limitations, this paper introduces Moirai-MoE, using a single input/output projection layer while delegating the modeling of diverse time series patterns to the sparse mixture of experts (MoE) within Transformers. With these designs, Moirai-MoE reduces reliance on human-defined heuristics and enables automatic token-level specialization. Extensive experiments on 39 datasets demonstrate the superiority of Moirai-MoE over existing foundation models in both in-distribution and zero-shot scenarios. Furthermore, this study conducts comprehensive model analyses to explore the inner workings of time series MoE foundation models and provides valuable insights for future research.

We present Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR), a new generation paradigm that redefines the autoregressive learning on images as coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" or "next-resolution prediction", diverging from the standard raster-scan "next-token prediction". This simple, intuitive methodology allows autoregressive (AR) transformers to learn visual distributions fast and generalize well: VAR, for the first time, makes AR models surpass diffusion transformers in image generation. On ImageNet 256x256 benchmark, VAR significantly improve AR baseline by improving Frechet inception distance (FID) from 18.65 to 1.80, inception score (IS) from 80.4 to 356.4, with around 20x faster inference speed. It is also empirically verified that VAR outperforms the Diffusion Transformer (DiT) in multiple dimensions including image quality, inference speed, data efficiency, and scalability. Scaling up VAR models exhibits clear power-law scaling laws similar to those observed in LLMs, with linear correlation coefficients near -0.998 as solid evidence. VAR further showcases zero-shot generalization ability in downstream tasks including image in-painting, out-painting, and editing. These results suggest VAR has initially emulated the two important properties of LLMs: Scaling Laws and zero-shot task generalization. We have released all models and codes to promote the exploration of AR/VAR models for visual generation and unified learning.

The performance of transformers for time-series forecasting has improved significantly. Recent architectures learn complex temporal patterns by segmenting a time-series into patches and using the patches as tokens. The patch size controls the ability of transformers to learn the temporal patterns at different frequencies: shorter patches are effective for learning localized, high-frequency patterns, whereas mining long-term seasonalities and trends requires longer patches. Inspired by this observation, we propose a novel framework, Multi-resolution Time-Series Transformer (MTST), which consists of a multi-branch architecture for simultaneous modeling of diverse temporal patterns at different resolutions. In contrast to many existing time-series transformers, we employ relative positional encoding, which is better suited for extracting periodic components at different scales. Extensive experiments on several real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of MTST in comparison to state-of-the-art forecasting techniques.

The recent boom of linear forecasting models questions the ongoing passion for architectural modifications of Transformer-based forecasters. These forecasters leverage Transformers to model the global dependencies over temporal tokens of time series, with each token formed by multiple variates of the same timestamp. However, Transformers are challenged in forecasting series with larger lookback windows due to performance degradation and computation explosion. Besides, the embedding for each temporal token fuses multiple variates that represent potential delayed events and distinct physical measurements, which may fail in learning variate-centric representations and result in meaningless attention maps. In this work, we reflect on the competent duties of Transformer components and repurpose the Transformer architecture without any modification to the basic components. We propose iTransformer that simply applies the attention and feed-forward network on the inverted dimensions. Specifically, the time points of individual series are embedded into variate tokens which are utilized by the attention mechanism to capture multivariate correlations; meanwhile, the feed-forward network is applied for each variate token to learn nonlinear representations. The iTransformer model achieves state-of-the-art on challenging real-world datasets, which further empowers the Transformer family with promoted performance, generalization ability across different variates, and better utilization of arbitrary lookback windows, making it a nice alternative as the fundamental backbone of time series forecasting. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/iTransformer.

Accurate prediction of knee osteoarthritis (KOA) progression from structural MRI has a potential to enhance disease understanding and support clinical trials. Prior art focused on manually designed imaging biomarkers, which may not fully exploit all disease-related information present in MRI scan. In contrast, our method learns relevant representations from raw data end-to-end using Deep Learning, and uses them for progression prediction. The method employs a 2D CNN to process the data slice-wise and aggregate the extracted features using a Transformer. Evaluated on a large cohort (n=4,866), the proposed method outperforms conventional 2D and 3D CNN-based models and achieves average precision of 0.58pm0.03 and ROC AUC of 0.78pm0.01. This paper sets a baseline on end-to-end KOA progression prediction from structural MRI. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/MIPT-Oulu/OAProgressionMR.

Objective: Electroencephalography signals are recorded as a multidimensional dataset. We propose a new framework based on the augmented covariance extracted from an autoregressive model to improve motor imagery classification. Methods: From the autoregressive model can be derived the Yule-Walker equations, which show the emergence of a symmetric positive definite matrix: the augmented covariance matrix. The state-of the art for classifying covariance matrices is based on Riemannian Geometry. A fairly natural idea is therefore to extend the standard approach using these augmented covariance matrices. The methodology for creating the augmented covariance matrix shows a natural connection with the delay embedding theorem proposed by Takens for dynamical systems. Such an embedding method is based on the knowledge of two parameters: the delay and the embedding dimension, respectively related to the lag and the order of the autoregressive model. This approach provides new methods to compute the hyper-parameters in addition to standard grid search. Results: The augmented covariance matrix performed noticeably better than any state-of-the-art methods. We will test our approach on several datasets and several subjects using the MOABB framework, using both within-session and cross-session evaluation. Conclusion: The improvement in results is due to the fact that the augmented covariance matrix incorporates not only spatial but also temporal information, incorporating nonlinear components of the signal through an embedding procedure, which allows the leveraging of dynamical systems algorithms. Significance: These results extend the concepts and the results of the Riemannian distance based classification algorithm.

Autoregressive models have emerged as a powerful approach for visual generation but suffer from slow inference speed due to their sequential token-by-token prediction process. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective approach for parallelized autoregressive visual generation that improves generation efficiency while preserving the advantages of autoregressive modeling. Our key insight is that parallel generation depends on visual token dependencies-tokens with weak dependencies can be generated in parallel, while strongly dependent adjacent tokens are difficult to generate together, as their independent sampling may lead to inconsistencies. Based on this observation, we develop a parallel generation strategy that generates distant tokens with weak dependencies in parallel while maintaining sequential generation for strongly dependent local tokens. Our approach can be seamlessly integrated into standard autoregressive models without modifying the architecture or tokenizer. Experiments on ImageNet and UCF-101 demonstrate that our method achieves a 3.6x speedup with comparable quality and up to 9.5x speedup with minimal quality degradation across both image and video generation tasks. We hope this work will inspire future research in efficient visual generation and unified autoregressive modeling. Project page: https://epiphqny.github.io/PAR-project.

In this paper, we introduce a novel theoretical framework for multi-task regression, applying random matrix theory to provide precise performance estimations, under high-dimensional, non-Gaussian data distributions. We formulate a multi-task optimization problem as a regularization technique to enable single-task models to leverage multi-task learning information. We derive a closed-form solution for multi-task optimization in the context of linear models. Our analysis provides valuable insights by linking the multi-task learning performance to various model statistics such as raw data covariances, signal-generating hyperplanes, noise levels, as well as the size and number of datasets. We finally propose a consistent estimation of training and testing errors, thereby offering a robust foundation for hyperparameter optimization in multi-task regression scenarios. Experimental validations on both synthetic and real-world datasets in regression and multivariate time series forecasting demonstrate improvements on univariate models, incorporating our method into the training loss and thus leveraging multivariate information.

We introduce Autoregressive Diffusion Models (ARDMs), a model class encompassing and generalizing order-agnostic autoregressive models (Uria et al., 2014) and absorbing discrete diffusion (Austin et al., 2021), which we show are special cases of ARDMs under mild assumptions. ARDMs are simple to implement and easy to train. Unlike standard ARMs, they do not require causal masking of model representations, and can be trained using an efficient objective similar to modern probabilistic diffusion models that scales favourably to highly-dimensional data. At test time, ARDMs support parallel generation which can be adapted to fit any given generation budget. We find that ARDMs require significantly fewer steps than discrete diffusion models to attain the same performance. Finally, we apply ARDMs to lossless compression, and show that they are uniquely suited to this task. Contrary to existing approaches based on bits-back coding, ARDMs obtain compelling results not only on complete datasets, but also on compressing single data points. Moreover, this can be done using a modest number of network calls for (de)compression due to the model's adaptable parallel generation.

In autoregressive (AR) image generation, models based on the 'next-token prediction' paradigm of LLMs have shown comparable performance to diffusion models by reducing inductive biases. However, directly applying LLMs to complex image generation can struggle with reconstructing the image's structure and details, impacting the generation's accuracy and stability. Additionally, the 'next-token prediction' paradigm in the AR model does not align with the contextual scanning and logical reasoning processes involved in human visual perception, limiting effective image generation. Prompt engineering, as a key technique for guiding LLMs, leverages specifically designed prompts to improve model performance on complex natural language processing (NLP) tasks, enhancing accuracy and stability of generation while maintaining contextual coherence and logical consistency, similar to human reasoning. Inspired by prompt engineering from the field of NLP, we propose Vision Full-view prompt (VF prompt) to enhance autoregressive image generation. Specifically, we design specialized image-related VF prompts for AR image generation to simulate the process of human image creation. This enhances contextual logic ability by allowing the model to first perceive overall distribution information before generating the image, and improve generation stability by increasing the inference steps. Compared to the AR method without VF prompts, our method shows outstanding performance and achieves an approximate improvement of 20%.

Multimodal autoregressive (AR) models, based on next-token prediction and transformer architecture, have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in various multimodal tasks including text-to-image (T2I) generation. Despite their strong performance in general T2I tasks, our research reveals that these models initially struggle with subject-driven image generation compared to dominant diffusion models. To address this limitation, we introduce Proxy-Tuning, leveraging diffusion models to enhance AR models' capabilities in subject-specific image generation. Our method reveals a striking weak-to-strong phenomenon: fine-tuned AR models consistently outperform their diffusion model supervisors in both subject fidelity and prompt adherence. We analyze this performance shift and identify scenarios where AR models excel, particularly in multi-subject compositions and contextual understanding. This work not only demonstrates impressive results in subject-driven AR image generation, but also unveils the potential of weak-to-strong generalization in the image generation domain, contributing to a deeper understanding of different architectures' strengths and limitations.

Deep learning for time series forecasting has traditionally operated within a one-model-per-dataset framework, limiting its potential to leverage the game-changing impact of large pre-trained models. The concept of universal forecasting, emerging from pre-training on a vast collection of time series datasets, envisions a single Large Time Series Model capable of addressing diverse downstream forecasting tasks. However, constructing such a model poses unique challenges specific to time series data: i) cross-frequency learning, ii) accommodating an arbitrary number of variates for multivariate time series, and iii) addressing the varying distributional properties inherent in large-scale data. To address these challenges, we present novel enhancements to the conventional time series Transformer architecture, resulting in our proposed Masked Encoder-based Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformer (Moirai). Trained on our newly introduced Large-scale Open Time Series Archive (LOTSA) featuring over 27B observations across nine domains, Moirai achieves competitive or superior performance as a zero-shot forecaster when compared to full-shot models. Code, model weights, and data will be released.

This paper shows that the autoregressive model is an effective and scalable monocular depth estimator. Our idea is simple: We tackle the monocular depth estimation (MDE) task with an autoregressive prediction paradigm, based on two core designs. First, our depth autoregressive model (DAR) treats the depth map of different resolutions as a set of tokens, and conducts the low-to-high resolution autoregressive objective with a patch-wise casual mask. Second, our DAR recursively discretizes the entire depth range into more compact intervals, and attains the coarse-to-fine granularity autoregressive objective in an ordinal-regression manner. By coupling these two autoregressive objectives, our DAR establishes new state-of-the-art (SOTA) on KITTI and NYU Depth v2 by clear margins. Further, our scalable approach allows us to scale the model up to 2.0B and achieve the best RMSE of 1.799 on the KITTI dataset (5% improvement) compared to 1.896 by the current SOTA (Depth Anything). DAR further showcases zero-shot generalization ability on unseen datasets. These results suggest that DAR yields superior performance with an autoregressive prediction paradigm, providing a promising approach to equip modern autoregressive large models (e.g., GPT-4o) with depth estimation capabilities.

Multivariable time series forecasting methods can integrate information from exogenous variables, leading to significant prediction accuracy gains. Transformer architecture has been widely applied in various time series forecasting models due to its ability to capture long-range sequential dependencies. However, a na\"ive application of transformers often struggles to effectively model complex relationships among variables over time. To mitigate against this, we propose a novel architecture, namely the Spectral Operator Neural Network (Sonnet). Sonnet applies learnable wavelet transformations to the input and incorporates spectral analysis using the Koopman operator. Its predictive skill relies on the Multivariable Coherence Attention (MVCA), an operation that leverages spectral coherence to model variable dependencies. Our empirical analysis shows that Sonnet yields the best performance on 34 out of 47 forecasting tasks with an average mean absolute error (MAE) reduction of 1.1% against the most competitive baseline (different per task). We further show that MVCA -- when put in place of the na\"ive attention used in various deep learning models -- can remedy its deficiencies, reducing MAE by 10.7% on average in the most challenging forecasting tasks.

Recently, channel-independent methods have achieved state-of-the-art performance in multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting. Despite reducing overfitting risks, these methods miss potential opportunities in utilizing channel dependence for accurate predictions. We argue that there exist locally stationary lead-lag relationships between variates, i.e., some lagged variates may follow the leading indicators within a short time period. Exploiting such channel dependence is beneficial since leading indicators offer advance information that can be used to reduce the forecasting difficulty of the lagged variates. In this paper, we propose a new method named LIFT that first efficiently estimates leading indicators and their leading steps at each time step and then judiciously allows the lagged variates to utilize the advance information from leading indicators. LIFT plays as a plugin that can be seamlessly collaborated with arbitrary time series forecasting methods. Extensive experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate that LIFT improves the state-of-the-art methods by 5.5% in average forecasting performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-Quant/LIFT.

Pre-trained foundation models (FMs) have shown exceptional performance in univariate time series forecasting tasks. However, several practical challenges persist, including managing intricate dependencies among features and quantifying uncertainty in predictions. This study aims to tackle these critical limitations by introducing adapters; feature-space transformations that facilitate the effective use of pre-trained univariate time series FMs for multivariate tasks. Adapters operate by projecting multivariate inputs into a suitable latent space and applying the FM independently to each dimension. Inspired by the literature on representation learning and partially stochastic Bayesian neural networks, we present a range of adapters and optimization/inference strategies. Experiments conducted on both synthetic and real-world datasets confirm the efficacy of adapters, demonstrating substantial enhancements in forecasting accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to baseline methods. Our framework, AdaPTS, positions adapters as a modular, scalable, and effective solution for leveraging time series FMs in multivariate contexts, thereby promoting their wider adoption in real-world applications. We release the code at https://github.com/abenechehab/AdaPTS.

Autoregressive (AR) models have reformulated image generation as next-token prediction, demonstrating remarkable potential and emerging as strong competitors to diffusion models. However, control-to-image generation, akin to ControlNet, remains largely unexplored within AR models. Although a natural approach, inspired by advancements in Large Language Models, is to tokenize control images into tokens and prefill them into the autoregressive model before decoding image tokens, it still falls short in generation quality compared to ControlNet and suffers from inefficiency. To this end, we introduce ControlAR, an efficient and effective framework for integrating spatial controls into autoregressive image generation models. Firstly, we explore control encoding for AR models and propose a lightweight control encoder to transform spatial inputs (e.g., canny edges or depth maps) into control tokens. Then ControlAR exploits the conditional decoding method to generate the next image token conditioned on the per-token fusion between control and image tokens, similar to positional encodings. Compared to prefilling tokens, using conditional decoding significantly strengthens the control capability of AR models but also maintains the model's efficiency. Furthermore, the proposed ControlAR surprisingly empowers AR models with arbitrary-resolution image generation via conditional decoding and specific controls. Extensive experiments can demonstrate the controllability of the proposed ControlAR for the autoregressive control-to-image generation across diverse inputs, including edges, depths, and segmentation masks. Furthermore, both quantitative and qualitative results indicate that ControlAR surpasses previous state-of-the-art controllable diffusion models, e.g., ControlNet++. Code, models, and demo will soon be available at https://github.com/hustvl/ControlAR.

In this work, we provide a systematic survey of Discrete Diffusion Language Models (dLLMs) and Discrete Diffusion Multimodal Language Models (dMLLMs). Unlike autoregressive (AR) models, dLLMs and dMLLMs adopt a multi-token, parallel decoding paradigm using full attention and a denoising-based generation strategy. This paradigm naturally enables parallel generation, fine-grained output controllability, and dynamic, response-aware perception. These capabilities are previously difficult to achieve with AR models. Recently, a growing number of industrial-scale proprietary d(M)LLMs, as well as a large number of open-source academic d(M)LLMs, have demonstrated performance comparable to their autoregressive counterparts, while achieving up to 10x acceleration in inference speed. The advancement of discrete diffusion LLMs and MLLMs has been largely driven by progress in two domains. The first is the development of autoregressive LLMs and MLLMs, which has accumulated vast amounts of data, benchmarks, and foundational infrastructure for training and inference. The second contributing domain is the evolution of the mathematical models underlying discrete diffusion. Together, these advancements have catalyzed a surge in dLLMs and dMLLMs research in early 2025. In this work, we present a comprehensive overview of the research in the dLLM and dMLLM domains. We trace the historical development of dLLMs and dMLLMs, formalize the underlying mathematical frameworks, and categorize representative models. We further analyze key techniques for training and inference, and summarize emerging applications across language, vision-language, and biological domains. We conclude by discussing future directions for research and deployment. Paper collection: https://github.com/LiQiiiii/DLLM-Survey

Time series analysis has witnessed the inspiring development from traditional autoregressive models, deep learning models, to recent Transformers and Large Language Models (LLMs). Efforts in leveraging vision models for time series analysis have also been made along the way but are less visible to the community due to the predominant research on sequence modeling in this domain. However, the discrepancy between continuous time series and the discrete token space of LLMs, and the challenges in explicitly modeling the correlations of variates in multivariate time series have shifted some research attentions to the equally successful Large Vision Models (LVMs) and Vision Language Models (VLMs). To fill the blank in the existing literature, this survey discusses the advantages of vision models over LLMs in time series analysis. It provides a comprehensive and in-depth overview of the existing methods, with dual views of detailed taxonomy that answer the key research questions including how to encode time series as images and how to model the imaged time series for various tasks. Additionally, we address the challenges in the pre- and post-processing steps involved in this framework and outline future directions to further advance time series analysis with vision models.

In this paper, we introduce Janus, an autoregressive framework that unifies multimodal understanding and generation. Prior research often relies on a single visual encoder for both tasks, such as Chameleon. However, due to the differing levels of information granularity required by multimodal understanding and generation, this approach can lead to suboptimal performance, particularly in multimodal understanding. To address this issue, we decouple visual encoding into separate pathways, while still leveraging a single, unified transformer architecture for processing. The decoupling not only alleviates the conflict between the visual encoder's roles in understanding and generation, but also enhances the framework's flexibility. For instance, both the multimodal understanding and generation components can independently select their most suitable encoding methods. Experiments show that Janus surpasses previous unified model and matches or exceeds the performance of task-specific models. The simplicity, high flexibility, and effectiveness of Janus make it a strong candidate for next-generation unified multimodal models.

Analyzing both temporal and spatial patterns for an accurate forecasting model for financial time series forecasting is a challenge due to the complex nature of temporal-spatial dynamics: time series from different locations often have distinct patterns; and for the same time series, patterns may vary as time goes by. Inspired by the successful applications of deep learning, we propose a new model to resolve the issues of forecasting household leverage in China. Our solution consists of multiple RNN-based layers and an attention layer: each RNN-based layer automatically learns the temporal pattern of a specific series with multivariate exogenous series, and then the attention layer learns the spatial correlative weight and obtains the global representations simultaneously. The results show that the new approach can capture the temporal-spatial dynamics of household leverage well and get more accurate and solid predictive results. More, the simulation also studies show that clustering and choosing correlative series are necessary to obtain accurate forecasting results.

Despite recent advancements in language and vision modeling, integrating rich multimodal knowledge into recommender systems continues to pose significant challenges. This is primarily due to the need for efficient recommendation, which requires adaptive and interactive responses. In this study, we focus on sequential recommendation and introduce a lightweight framework called full-scale Matryoshka representation learning for multimodal recommendation (fMRLRec). Our fMRLRec captures item features at different granularities, learning informative representations for efficient recommendation across multiple dimensions. To integrate item features from diverse modalities, fMRLRec employs a simple mapping to project multimodal item features into an aligned feature space. Additionally, we design an efficient linear transformation that embeds smaller features into larger ones, substantially reducing memory requirements for large-scale training on recommendation data. Combined with improved state space modeling techniques, fMRLRec scales to different dimensions and only requires one-time training to produce multiple models tailored to various granularities. We demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of fMRLRec on multiple benchmark datasets, which consistently achieves superior performance over state-of-the-art baseline methods. We make our code and data publicly available at https://github.com/yueqirex/fMRLRec.

Multiple Instance Learning (MIL) has emerged as a dominant paradigm to extract discriminative feature representations within Whole Slide Images (WSIs) in computational pathology. Despite driving notable progress, existing MIL approaches suffer from limitations in facilitating comprehensive and efficient interactions among instances, as well as challenges related to time-consuming computations and overfitting. In this paper, we incorporate the Selective Scan Space State Sequential Model (Mamba) in Multiple Instance Learning (MIL) for long sequence modeling with linear complexity, termed as MambaMIL. By inheriting the capability of vanilla Mamba, MambaMIL demonstrates the ability to comprehensively understand and perceive long sequences of instances. Furthermore, we propose the Sequence Reordering Mamba (SR-Mamba) aware of the order and distribution of instances, which exploits the inherent valuable information embedded within the long sequences. With the SR-Mamba as the core component, MambaMIL can effectively capture more discriminative features and mitigate the challenges associated with overfitting and high computational overhead. Extensive experiments on two public challenging tasks across nine diverse datasets demonstrate that our proposed framework performs favorably against state-of-the-art MIL methods. The code is released at https://github.com/isyangshu/MambaMIL.

We propose PROSE-FD, a zero-shot multimodal PDE foundational model for simultaneous prediction of heterogeneous two-dimensional physical systems related to distinct fluid dynamics settings. These systems include shallow water equations and the Navier-Stokes equations with incompressible and compressible flow, regular and complex geometries, and different buoyancy settings. This work presents a new transformer-based multi-operator learning approach that fuses symbolic information to perform operator-based data prediction, i.e. non-autoregressive. By incorporating multiple modalities in the inputs, the PDE foundation model builds in a pathway for including mathematical descriptions of the physical behavior. We pre-train our foundation model on 6 parametric families of equations collected from 13 datasets, including over 60K trajectories. Our model outperforms popular operator learning, computer vision, and multi-physics models, in benchmark forward prediction tasks. We test our architecture choices with ablation studies.

In this paper we present a new framework for time-series modeling that combines the best of traditional statistical models and neural networks. We focus on time-series with long-range dependencies, needed for monitoring fine granularity data (e.g. minutes, seconds, milliseconds), prevalent in operational use-cases. Traditional models, such as auto-regression fitted with least squares (Classic-AR) can model time-series with a concise and interpretable model. When dealing with long-range dependencies, Classic-AR models can become intractably slow to fit for large data. Recently, sequence-to-sequence models, such as Recurrent Neural Networks, which were originally intended for natural language processing, have become popular for time-series. However, they can be overly complex for typical time-series data and lack interpretability. A scalable and interpretable model is needed to bridge the statistical and deep learning-based approaches. As a first step towards this goal, we propose modelling AR-process dynamics using a feed-forward neural network approach, termed AR-Net. We show that AR-Net is as interpretable as Classic-AR but also scales to long-range dependencies. Our results lead to three major conclusions: First, AR-Net learns identical AR-coefficients as Classic-AR, thus being equally interpretable. Second, the computational complexity with respect to the order of the AR process, is linear for AR-Net as compared to a quadratic for Classic-AR. This makes it possible to model long-range dependencies within fine granularity data. Third, by introducing regularization, AR-Net automatically selects and learns sparse AR-coefficients. This eliminates the need to know the exact order of the AR-process and allows to learn sparse weights for a model with long-range dependencies.

Autoregressive transformers are spectacular models for short sequences but scale poorly to long sequences such as high-resolution images, podcasts, code, or books. We proposed Megabyte, a multi-scale decoder architecture that enables end-to-end differentiable modeling of sequences of over one million bytes. Megabyte segments sequences into patches and uses a local submodel within patches and a global model between patches. This enables sub-quadratic self-attention, much larger feedforward layers for the same compute, and improved parallelism during decoding -- unlocking better performance at reduced cost for both training and generation. Extensive experiments show that Megabyte allows byte-level models to perform competitively with subword models on long context language modeling, achieve state-of-the-art density estimation on ImageNet, and model audio from raw files. Together, these results establish the viability of tokenization-free autoregressive sequence modeling at scale.

Despite remarkable progress, existing multimodal large language models (MLLMs) are still inferior in granular visual recognition. Contrary to previous works, we study this problem from the perspective of image resolution, and reveal that a combination of low- and high-resolution visual features can effectively mitigate this shortcoming. Based on this observation, we propose a novel and efficient method for MLLMs, termed Mixture-of-Resolution Adaptation (MRA). In particular, MRA adopts two visual pathways for images with different resolutions, where high-resolution visual information is embedded into the low-resolution pathway via the novel mixture-of-resolution adapters (MR-Adapters). This design also greatly reduces the input sequence length of MLLMs. To validate MRA, we apply it to a recent MLLM called LLaVA, and term the new model LLaVA-HR. We conduct extensive experiments on 11 vision-language (VL) tasks, which show that LLaVA-HR outperforms existing MLLMs on 8 VL tasks, e.g., +9.4% on TextVQA. More importantly, both training and inference of LLaVA-HR remain efficient with MRA, e.g., 20 training hours and 3times inference speed than LLaVA-1.5. Source codes are released at: https://github.com/luogen1996/LLaVA-HR.

Classifier-Free Guidance (CFG) is a critical technique for enhancing the sample quality of visual generative models. However, in autoregressive (AR) multi-modal generation, CFG introduces design inconsistencies between language and visual content, contradicting the design philosophy of unifying different modalities for visual AR. Motivated by language model alignment methods, we propose Condition Contrastive Alignment (CCA) to facilitate guidance-free AR visual generation with high performance and analyze its theoretical connection with guided sampling methods. Unlike guidance methods that alter the sampling process to achieve the ideal sampling distribution, CCA directly fine-tunes pretrained models to fit the same distribution target. Experimental results show that CCA can significantly enhance the guidance-free performance of all tested models with just one epoch of fine-tuning (sim 1\% of pretraining epochs) on the pretraining dataset, on par with guided sampling methods. This largely removes the need for guided sampling in AR visual generation and cuts the sampling cost by half. Moreover, by adjusting training parameters, CCA can achieve trade-offs between sample diversity and fidelity similar to CFG. This experimentally confirms the strong theoretical connection between language-targeted alignment and visual-targeted guidance methods, unifying two previously independent research fields. Code and model weights: https://github.com/thu-ml/CCA.

This paper proposes to model chaos in the ATM cash withdrawal time series of a big Indian bank and forecast the withdrawals using deep learning methods. It also considers the importance of day-of-the-week and includes it as a dummy exogenous variable. We first modelled the chaos present in the withdrawal time series by reconstructing the state space of each series using the lag, and embedding dimension found using an auto-correlation function and Cao's method. This process converts the uni-variate time series into multi variate time series. The "day-of-the-week" is converted into seven features with the help of one-hot encoding. Then these seven features are augmented to the multivariate time series. For forecasting the future cash withdrawals, using algorithms namely ARIMA, random forest (RF), support vector regressor (SVR), multi-layer perceptron (MLP), group method of data handling (GMDH), general regression neural network (GRNN), long short term memory neural network and 1-dimensional convolutional neural network. We considered a daily cash withdrawals data set from an Indian commercial bank. After modelling chaos and adding exogenous features to the data set, we observed improvements in the forecasting for all models. Even though the random forest (RF) yielded better Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE) value, deep learning algorithms, namely LSTM and 1D CNN, showed similar performance compared to RF, based on t-test.

This paper presents OLinear, a linear-based multivariate time series forecasting model that operates in an orthogonally transformed domain. Recent forecasting models typically adopt the temporal forecast (TF) paradigm, which directly encode and decode time series in the time domain. However, the entangled step-wise dependencies in series data can hinder the performance of TF. To address this, some forecasters conduct encoding and decoding in the transformed domain using fixed, dataset-independent bases (e.g., sine and cosine signals in the Fourier transform). In contrast, we utilize OrthoTrans, a data-adaptive transformation based on an orthogonal matrix that diagonalizes the series' temporal Pearson correlation matrix. This approach enables more effective encoding and decoding in the decorrelated feature domain and can serve as a plug-in module to enhance existing forecasters. To enhance the representation learning for multivariate time series, we introduce a customized linear layer, NormLin, which employs a normalized weight matrix to capture multivariate dependencies. Empirically, the NormLin module shows a surprising performance advantage over multi-head self-attention, while requiring nearly half the FLOPs. Extensive experiments on 24 benchmarks and 140 forecasting tasks demonstrate that OLinear consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance with high efficiency. Notably, as a plug-in replacement for self-attention, the NormLin module consistently enhances Transformer-based forecasters. The code and datasets are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/OLinear

Recently, Visual Autoregressive (VAR) Models introduced a groundbreaking advancement in the field of image generation, offering a scalable approach through a coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" paradigm. However, the state-of-the-art algorithm of VAR models in [Tian, Jiang, Yuan, Peng and Wang, NeurIPS 2024] takes O(n^4) time, which is computationally inefficient. In this work, we analyze the computational limits and efficiency criteria of VAR Models through a fine-grained complexity lens. Our key contribution is identifying the conditions under which VAR computations can achieve sub-quadratic time complexity. Specifically, we establish a critical threshold for the norm of input matrices used in VAR attention mechanisms. Above this threshold, assuming the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis (SETH) from fine-grained complexity theory, a sub-quartic time algorithm for VAR models is impossible. To substantiate our theoretical findings, we present efficient constructions leveraging low-rank approximations that align with the derived criteria. This work initiates the study of the computational efficiency of the VAR model from a theoretical perspective. Our technique will shed light on advancing scalable and efficient image generation in VAR frameworks.

Autoregressive models (ARMs) have become the workhorse for sequence generation tasks, since many problems can be modeled as next-token prediction. While there appears to be a natural ordering for text (i.e., left-to-right), for many data types, such as graphs, the canonical ordering is less obvious. To address this problem, we introduce a variant of ARM that generates high-dimensional data using a probabilistic ordering that is sequentially inferred from data. This model incorporates a trainable probability distribution, referred to as an order-policy, that dynamically decides the autoregressive order in a state-dependent manner. To train the model, we introduce a variational lower bound on the exact log-likelihood, which we optimize with stochastic gradient estimation. We demonstrate experimentally that our method can learn meaningful autoregressive orderings in image and graph generation. On the challenging domain of molecular graph generation, we achieve state-of-the-art results on the QM9 and ZINC250k benchmarks, evaluated using the Fr\'{e}chet ChemNet Distance (FCD).

Autoregressive models have demonstrated remarkable success in sequential data generation, particularly in NLP, but their extension to continuous-domain image generation presents significant challenges. Recent work, the masked autoregressive model (MAR), bypasses quantization by modeling per-token distributions in continuous spaces using a diffusion head but suffers from slow inference due to the high computational cost of the iterative denoising process. To address this, we propose the Fast AutoRegressive model (FAR), a novel framework that replaces MAR's diffusion head with a lightweight shortcut head, enabling efficient few-step sampling while preserving autoregressive principles. Additionally, FAR seamlessly integrates with causal Transformers, extending them from discrete to continuous token generation without requiring architectural modifications. Experiments demonstrate that FAR achieves 2.3times faster inference than MAR while maintaining competitive FID and IS scores. This work establishes the first efficient autoregressive paradigm for high-fidelity continuous-space image generation, bridging the critical gap between quality and scalability in visual autoregressive modeling.

Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) enhances the abilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) by enabling the retrieval of documents into the LLM context to provide more accurate and relevant responses. Existing RAG solutions do not focus on queries that may require fetching multiple documents with substantially different contents. Such queries occur frequently, but are challenging because the embeddings of these documents may be distant in the embedding space, making it hard to retrieve them all. This paper introduces Multi-Head RAG (MRAG), a novel scheme designed to address this gap with a simple yet powerful idea: leveraging activations of Transformer's multi-head attention layer, instead of the decoder layer, as keys for fetching multi-aspect documents. The driving motivation is that different attention heads can learn to capture different data aspects. Harnessing the corresponding activations results in embeddings that represent various facets of data items and queries, improving the retrieval accuracy for complex queries. We provide an evaluation methodology and metrics, synthetic datasets, and real-world use cases to demonstrate MRAG's effectiveness, showing improvements of up to 20% in relevance over standard RAG baselines. MRAG can be seamlessly integrated with existing RAG frameworks and benchmarking tools like RAGAS as well as different classes of data stores.

A multivariate time series refers to observations of two or more variables taken from a device or a system simultaneously over time. There is an increasing need to monitor multivariate time series and detect anomalies in real time to ensure proper system operation and good service quality. It is also highly desirable to have a lightweight anomaly detection system that considers correlations between different variables, adapts to changes in the pattern of the multivariate time series, offers immediate responses, and provides supportive information regarding detection results based on unsupervised learning and online model training. In the past decade, many multivariate time series anomaly detection approaches have been introduced. However, they are unable to offer all the above-mentioned features. In this paper, we propose RoLA, a real-time online lightweight anomaly detection system for multivariate time series based on a divide-and-conquer strategy, parallel processing, and the majority rule. RoLA employs multiple lightweight anomaly detectors to monitor multivariate time series in parallel, determine the correlations between variables dynamically on the fly, and then jointly detect anomalies based on the majority rule in real time. To demonstrate the performance of RoLA, we conducted an experiment based on a public dataset provided by the FerryBox of the One Ocean Expedition. The results show that RoLA provides satisfactory detection accuracy and lightweight performance.

Very-High Resolution (VHR) remote sensing imagery is increasingly accessible, but often lacks annotations for effective machine learning applications. Recent foundation models like GroundingDINO and Segment Anything (SAM) provide opportunities to automatically generate annotations. This study introduces FMARS (Foundation Model Annotations in Remote Sensing), a methodology leveraging VHR imagery and foundation models for fast and robust annotation. We focus on disaster management and provide a large-scale dataset with labels obtained from pre-event imagery over 19 disaster events, derived from the Maxar Open Data initiative. We train segmentation models on the generated labels, using Unsupervised Domain Adaptation (UDA) techniques to increase transferability to real-world scenarios. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of leveraging foundation models to automatically annotate remote sensing data at scale, enabling robust downstream models for critical applications. Code and dataset are available at https://github.com/links-ads/igarss-fmars.

In this work we propose for the first time a transformer-based framework for unsupervised representation learning of multivariate time series. Pre-trained models can be potentially used for downstream tasks such as regression and classification, forecasting and missing value imputation. By evaluating our models on several benchmark datasets for multivariate time series regression and classification, we show that not only does our modeling approach represent the most successful method employing unsupervised learning of multivariate time series presented to date, but also that it exceeds the current state-of-the-art performance of supervised methods; it does so even when the number of training samples is very limited, while offering computational efficiency. Finally, we demonstrate that unsupervised pre-training of our transformer models offers a substantial performance benefit over fully supervised learning, even without leveraging additional unlabeled data, i.e., by reusing the same data samples through the unsupervised objective.

In autoregressive (AR) image generation, visual tokenizers compress images into compact discrete latent tokens, enabling efficient training of downstream autoregressive models for visual generation via next-token prediction. While scaling visual tokenizers improves image reconstruction quality, it often degrades downstream generation quality -- a challenge not adequately addressed in existing literature. To address this, we introduce GigaTok, the first approach to simultaneously improve image reconstruction, generation, and representation learning when scaling visual tokenizers. We identify the growing complexity of latent space as the key factor behind the reconstruction vs. generation dilemma. To mitigate this, we propose semantic regularization, which aligns tokenizer features with semantically consistent features from a pre-trained visual encoder. This constraint prevents excessive latent space complexity during scaling, yielding consistent improvements in both reconstruction and downstream autoregressive generation. Building on semantic regularization, we explore three key practices for scaling tokenizers:(1) using 1D tokenizers for better scalability, (2) prioritizing decoder scaling when expanding both encoder and decoder, and (3) employing entropy loss to stabilize training for billion-scale tokenizers. By scaling to 3 space billion parameters, GigaTok achieves state-of-the-art performance in reconstruction, downstream AR generation, and downstream AR representation quality.

Autoregressive models, despite their commendable performance in a myriad of generative tasks, face challenges stemming from their inherently sequential structure. Inference on these models, by design, harnesses a temporal dependency, where the current token's probability distribution is conditioned on preceding tokens. This inherent characteristic severely impedes computational efficiency during inference as a typical inference request can require more than thousands of tokens, where generating each token requires a load of entire model weights, making the inference more memory-bound. The large overhead becomes profound in real deployment where requests arrive randomly, necessitating various generation lengths. Existing solutions, such as dynamic batching and concurrent instances, introduce significant response delays and bandwidth contention, falling short of achieving optimal latency and throughput. To address these shortcomings, we propose Flover -- a temporal fusion framework for efficiently inferring multiple requests in parallel. We deconstruct the general generation pipeline into pre-processing and token generation, and equip the framework with a dedicated work scheduler for fusing the generation process temporally across all requests. By orchestrating the token-level parallelism, Flover exhibits optimal hardware efficiency and significantly spares the system resources. By further employing a fast buffer reordering algorithm that allows memory eviction of finished tasks, it brings over 11x inference speedup on GPT and 16x on LLAMA compared to the cutting-edge solutions provided by NVIDIA FasterTransformer. Crucially, by leveraging the advanced tensor parallel technique, Flover proves efficacious across diverse computational landscapes, from single-GPU setups to distributed scenarios, thereby offering robust performance optimization that adapts to variable use cases.

Session-based recommender systems (SBRSs) have shown superior performance over conventional methods. However, they show limited scalability on large-scale industrial datasets since most models learn one embedding per item. This leads to a large memory requirement (of storing one vector per item) and poor performance on sparse sessions with cold-start or unpopular items. Using one public and one large industrial dataset, we experimentally show that state-of-the-art SBRSs have low performance on sparse sessions with sparse items. We propose M2TRec, a Metadata-aware Multi-task Transformer model for session-based recommendations. Our proposed method learns a transformation function from item metadata to embeddings, and is thus, item-ID free (i.e., does not need to learn one embedding per item). It integrates item metadata to learn shared representations of diverse item attributes. During inference, new or unpopular items will be assigned identical representations for the attributes they share with items previously observed during training, and thus will have similar representations with those items, enabling recommendations of even cold-start and sparse items. Additionally, M2TRec is trained in a multi-task setting to predict the next item in the session along with its primary category and subcategories. Our multi-task strategy makes the model converge faster and significantly improves the overall performance. Experimental results show significant performance gains using our proposed approach on sparse items on the two datasets.

This paper introduces a novel training methodology that enables a small Transformer model to generalize the addition of two-digit numbers to numbers with unseen lengths of digits. The proposed approach employs an autoregressive generation technique, processing from right to left, which mimics a common manual method for adding large numbers. To the best of my knowledge, this methodology has not been previously explored in the literature. All results are reproducible, and the corresponding R code is available at: https://github.com/AGPatriota/ALGA-R/.

In recent years, there has been increasing interest in developing foundation models for time series data that can generalize across diverse downstream tasks. While numerous forecasting-oriented foundation models have been introduced, there is a notable scarcity of models tailored for time series classification. To address this gap, we present Mantis, a new open-source foundation model for time series classification based on the Vision Transformer (ViT) architecture that has been pre-trained using a contrastive learning approach. Our experimental results show that Mantis outperforms existing foundation models both when the backbone is frozen and when fine-tuned, while achieving the lowest calibration error. In addition, we propose several adapters to handle the multivariate setting, reducing memory requirements and modeling channel interdependence.

Several recent studies have attempted to autoregressively generate continuous speech representations without discrete speech tokens by combining diffusion and autoregressive models, yet they often face challenges with excessive computational loads or suboptimal outcomes. In this work, we propose Diffusion Transformer Autoregressive Modeling (DiTAR), a patch-based autoregressive framework combining a language model with a diffusion transformer. This approach significantly enhances the efficacy of autoregressive models for continuous tokens and reduces computational demands. DiTAR utilizes a divide-and-conquer strategy for patch generation, where the language model processes aggregated patch embeddings and the diffusion transformer subsequently generates the next patch based on the output of the language model. For inference, we propose defining temperature as the time point of introducing noise during the reverse diffusion ODE to balance diversity and determinism. We also show in the extensive scaling analysis that DiTAR has superb scalability. In zero-shot speech generation, DiTAR achieves state-of-the-art performance in robustness, speaker similarity, and naturalness.

Training general-purpose vision models on purely sequential visual data, eschewing linguistic inputs, has heralded a new frontier in visual understanding. These models are intended to not only comprehend but also seamlessly transit to out-of-domain tasks. However, current endeavors are hamstrung by an over-reliance on colossal models, exemplified by models with upwards of 3B parameters, and the necessity for an extensive corpus of visual data, often comprising a staggering 400B tokens. In this paper, we delve into the development of an efficient, autoregression-based vision model, innovatively architected to operate on a limited dataset. We meticulously demonstrate how this model achieves proficiency in a spectrum of visual tasks spanning both high-level and low-level semantic understanding during the testing phase. Our empirical evaluations underscore the model's agility in adapting to various tasks, heralding a significant reduction in the parameter footprint, and a marked decrease in training data requirements, thereby paving the way for more sustainable and accessible advancements in the field of generalist vision models. The code is available at https://github.com/ggjy/DeLVM.

The vision community has started to build with the recently developed state space model, Mamba, as the new backbone for a range of tasks. This paper shows that Mamba's visual capability can be significantly enhanced through autoregressive pretraining, a direction not previously explored. Efficiency-wise, the autoregressive nature can well capitalize on the Mamba's unidirectional recurrent structure, enabling faster overall training speed compared to other training strategies like mask modeling. Performance-wise, autoregressive pretraining equips the Mamba architecture with markedly higher accuracy over its supervised-trained counterparts and, more importantly, successfully unlocks its scaling potential to large and even huge model sizes. For example, with autoregressive pretraining, a base-size Mamba attains 83.2\% ImageNet accuracy, outperforming its supervised counterpart by 2.0\%; our huge-size Mamba, the largest Vision Mamba to date, attains 85.0\% ImageNet accuracy (85.5\% when finetuned with 384times384 inputs), notably surpassing all other Mamba variants in vision. The code is available at https://github.com/OliverRensu/ARM.

In this paper we construct an inferential procedure for Granger causality in high-dimensional non-stationary vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Our method does not require knowledge of the order of integration of the time series under consideration. We augment the VAR with at least as many lags as the suspected maximum order of integration, an approach which has been proven to be robust against the presence of unit roots in low dimensions. We prove that we can restrict the augmentation to only the variables of interest for the testing, thereby making the approach suitable for high dimensions. We combine this lag augmentation with a post-double-selection procedure in which a set of initial penalized regressions is performed to select the relevant variables for both the Granger causing and caused variables. We then establish uniform asymptotic normality of a second-stage regression involving only the selected variables. Finite sample simulations show good performance, an application to investigate the (predictive) causes and effects of economic uncertainty illustrates the need to allow for unknown orders of integration.

Conventional wisdom holds that autoregressive models for image generation are typically accompanied by vector-quantized tokens. We observe that while a discrete-valued space can facilitate representing a categorical distribution, it is not a necessity for autoregressive modeling. In this work, we propose to model the per-token probability distribution using a diffusion procedure, which allows us to apply autoregressive models in a continuous-valued space. Rather than using categorical cross-entropy loss, we define a Diffusion Loss function to model the per-token probability. This approach eliminates the need for discrete-valued tokenizers. We evaluate its effectiveness across a wide range of cases, including standard autoregressive models and generalized masked autoregressive (MAR) variants. By removing vector quantization, our image generator achieves strong results while enjoying the speed advantage of sequence modeling. We hope this work will motivate the use of autoregressive generation in other continuous-valued domains and applications.

Autoregressive decoding limits the efficiency of transformers for Machine Translation (MT). The community proposed specific network architectures and learning-based methods to solve this issue, which are expensive and require changes to the MT model, trading inference speed at the cost of the translation quality. In this paper, we propose to address the problem from the point of view of decoding algorithms, as a less explored but rather compelling direction. We propose to reframe the standard greedy autoregressive decoding of MT with a parallel formulation leveraging Jacobi and Gauss-Seidel fixed-point iteration methods for fast inference. This formulation allows to speed up existing models without training or modifications while retaining translation quality. We present three parallel decoding algorithms and test them on different languages and models showing how the parallelization introduces a speedup up to 38% w.r.t. the standard autoregressive decoding and nearly 2x when scaling the method on parallel resources. Finally, we introduce a decoding dependency graph visualizer (DDGviz) that let us see how the model has learned the conditional dependence between tokens and inspect the decoding procedure.

In this paper, we study risk-sensitive Reinforcement Learning (RL), focusing on the objective of Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) with risk tolerance tau. Starting with multi-arm bandits (MABs), we show the minimax CVaR regret rate is Omega(tau^{-1AK}), where A is the number of actions and K is the number of episodes, and that it is achieved by an Upper Confidence Bound algorithm with a novel Bernstein bonus. For online RL in tabular Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), we show a minimax regret lower bound of Omega(tau^{-1SAK}) (with normalized cumulative rewards), where S is the number of states, and we propose a novel bonus-driven Value Iteration procedure. We show that our algorithm achieves the optimal regret of widetilde O(tau^{-1SAK}) under a continuity assumption and in general attains a near-optimal regret of widetilde O(tau^{-1}SAK), which is minimax-optimal for constant tau. This improves on the best available bounds. By discretizing rewards appropriately, our algorithms are computationally efficient.

In the realm of time series forecasting (TSF), it is imperative for models to adeptly discern and distill hidden patterns within historical time series data to forecast future states. Transformer-based models exhibit formidable efficacy in TSF, primarily attributed to their advantage in apprehending these patterns. However, the quadratic complexity of the Transformer leads to low computational efficiency and high costs, which somewhat hinders the deployment of the TSF model in real-world scenarios. Recently, Mamba, a selective state space model, has gained traction due to its ability to process dependencies in sequences while maintaining near-linear complexity. For TSF tasks, these characteristics enable Mamba to comprehend hidden patterns as the Transformer and reduce computational overhead compared to the Transformer. Therefore, we propose a Mamba-based model named Simple-Mamba (S-Mamba) for TSF. Specifically, we tokenize the time points of each variate autonomously via a linear layer. A bidirectional Mamba layer is utilized to extract inter-variate correlations and a Feed-Forward Network is set to learn temporal dependencies. Finally, the generation of forecast outcomes through a linear mapping layer. Experiments on thirteen public datasets prove that S-Mamba maintains low computational overhead and achieves leading performance. Furthermore, we conduct extensive experiments to explore Mamba's potential in TSF tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/wzhwzhwzh0921/S-D-Mamba.

In this paper, we propose ZipAR, a training-free, plug-and-play parallel decoding framework for accelerating auto-regressive (AR) visual generation. The motivation stems from the observation that images exhibit local structures, and spatially distant regions tend to have minimal interdependence. Given a partially decoded set of visual tokens, in addition to the original next-token prediction scheme in the row dimension, the tokens corresponding to spatially adjacent regions in the column dimension can be decoded in parallel, enabling the ``next-set prediction'' paradigm. By decoding multiple tokens simultaneously in a single forward pass, the number of forward passes required to generate an image is significantly reduced, resulting in a substantial improvement in generation efficiency. Experiments demonstrate that ZipAR can reduce the number of model forward passes by up to 91% on the Emu3-Gen model without requiring any additional retraining.

In recent years, transformer-based models have gained prominence in multivariate long-term time series forecasting (LTSF), demonstrating significant advancements despite facing challenges such as high computational demands, difficulty in capturing temporal dynamics, and managing long-term dependencies. The emergence of LTSF-Linear, with its straightforward linear architecture, has notably outperformed transformer-based counterparts, prompting a reevaluation of the transformer's utility in time series forecasting. In response, this paper presents an adaptation of a recent architecture termed extended LSTM (xLSTM) for LTSF. xLSTM incorporates exponential gating and a revised memory structure with higher capacity that has good potential for LTSF. Our adopted architecture for LTSF termed as xLSTMTime surpasses current approaches. We compare xLSTMTime's performance against various state-of-the-art models across multiple real-world da-tasets, demonstrating superior forecasting capabilities. Our findings suggest that refined recurrent architectures can offer competitive alternatives to transformer-based models in LTSF tasks, po-tentially redefining the landscape of time series forecasting.

Multivariate time series classification is a crucial task in data mining, attracting growing research interest due to its broad applications. While many existing methods focus on discovering discriminative patterns in time series, real-world data does not always present such patterns, and sometimes raw numerical values can also serve as discriminative features. Additionally, the recent success of Transformer models has inspired many studies. However, when applying to time series classification, the self-attention mechanisms in Transformer models could introduce classification-irrelevant features, thereby compromising accuracy. To address these challenges, we propose a novel method, VSFormer, that incorporates both discriminative patterns (shape) and numerical information (value). In addition, we extract class-specific prior information derived from supervised information to enrich the positional encoding and provide classification-oriented self-attention learning, thereby enhancing its effectiveness. Extensive experiments on all 30 UEA archived datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our method compared to SOTA models. Through ablation studies, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the improved encoding layer and the proposed self-attention mechanism. Finally, We provide a case study on a real-world time series dataset without discriminative patterns to interpret our model.

Autoregressive (AR) models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in text and image generation but suffer from slow generation due to the token-by-token process. We ask an ambitious question: can a pre-trained AR model be adapted to generate outputs in just one or two steps? If successful, this would significantly advance the development and deployment of AR models. We notice that existing works that try to speed up AR generation by generating multiple tokens at once fundamentally cannot capture the output distribution due to the conditional dependencies between tokens, limiting their effectiveness for few-step generation. To address this, we propose Distilled Decoding (DD), which uses flow matching to create a deterministic mapping from Gaussian distribution to the output distribution of the pre-trained AR model. We then train a network to distill this mapping, enabling few-step generation. DD doesn't need the training data of the original AR model, making it more practical.We evaluate DD on state-of-the-art image AR models and present promising results on ImageNet-256. For VAR, which requires 10-step generation, DD enables one-step generation (6.3times speed-up), with an acceptable increase in FID from 4.19 to 9.96. For LlamaGen, DD reduces generation from 256 steps to 1, achieving an 217.8times speed-up with a comparable FID increase from 4.11 to 11.35. In both cases, baseline methods completely fail with FID>100. DD also excels on text-to-image generation, reducing the generation from 256 steps to 2 for LlamaGen with minimal FID increase from 25.70 to 28.95. As the first work to demonstrate the possibility of one-step generation for image AR models, DD challenges the prevailing notion that AR models are inherently slow, and opens up new opportunities for efficient AR generation. The project website is at https://imagination-research.github.io/distilled-decoding.

Large language models (LLMs) have been increasingly used in time series analysis. However, the potential of multimodal LLMs (MLLMs), particularly vision-language models, for time series remains largely under-explored. One natural way for humans to detect time series anomalies is through visualization and textual description. Motivated by this, we raise a critical and practical research question: Can multimodal LLMs perform time series anomaly detection? To answer this, we propose VisualTimeAnomaly benchmark to evaluate MLLMs in time series anomaly detection (TSAD). Our approach transforms time series numerical data into the image format and feed these images into various MLLMs, including proprietary models (GPT-4o and Gemini-1.5) and open-source models (LLaVA-NeXT and Qwen2-VL), each with one larger and one smaller variant. In total, VisualTimeAnomaly contains 12.4k time series images spanning 3 scenarios and 3 anomaly granularities with 9 anomaly types across 8 MLLMs. Starting with the univariate case (point- and range-wise anomalies), we extend our evaluation to more practical scenarios, including multivariate and irregular time series scenarios, and variate-wise anomalies. Our study reveals several key insights: 1) MLLMs detect range- and variate-wise anomalies more effectively than point-wise anomalies. 2) MLLMs are highly robust to irregular time series, even with 25% of the data missing. 3) Open-source MLLMs perform comparably to proprietary models in TSAD. While open-source MLLMs excel on univariate time series, proprietary MLLMs demonstrate superior effectiveness on multivariate time series. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to comprehensively investigate MLLMs for TSAD, particularly for multivariate and irregular time series scenarios. We release our dataset and code at https://github.com/mllm-ts/VisualTimeAnomaly to support future research.

Stock movement prediction, a fundamental task in financial time-series forecasting, requires identifying and retrieving critical influencing factors from vast amounts of time-series data. However, existing text-trained or numeric similarity-based retrieval methods fall short in handling complex financial analysis. To address this, we propose the first retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) framework for financial time-series forecasting, featuring three key innovations: a fine-tuned 1B parameter large language model (StockLLM) as the backbone, a novel candidate selection method leveraging LLM feedback, and a training objective that maximizes similarity between queries and historically significant sequences. This enables our retriever, FinSeer, to uncover meaningful patterns while minimizing noise in complex financial data. We also construct new datasets integrating financial indicators and historical stock prices to train FinSeer and ensure robust evaluation. Experimental results demonstrate that our RAG framework outperforms bare StockLLM and random retrieval, highlighting its effectiveness, while FinSeer surpasses existing retrieval methods, achieving an 8\% higher accuracy on BIGDATA22 and retrieving more impactful sequences. This work underscores the importance of tailored retrieval models in financial forecasting and provides a novel framework for future research.

Historically, LLMs have been trained using either autoregressive (AR) or masked language modeling (MLM) objectives, with AR models gaining dominance in recent years. However, AR models are inherently incapable of masked infilling, which is the ability to predict masked tokens between past and future context. In contrast, MLM models suffer from intrinsic computational inefficiencies during both training and inference that hinder their scalability. This work introduces MARIA (Masked and Autoregressive Infilling Architecture), a novel approach that leverages the strengths of both paradigms to achieve state-of-the-art masked infilling performance. MARIA combines a pre-trained MLM and AR model by training a linear decoder that takes their concatenated hidden states as input. This minimal modification enables the AR model to perform infilling while retaining its inherent advantages in terms of faster inference with KV caching. Our results demonstrate that MARIA significantly outperforms existing methods, namely discrete diffusion models, on masked infilling tasks.

Transformer-based architectures achieved breakthrough performance in natural language processing and computer vision, yet they remain inferior to simpler linear baselines in multivariate long-term forecasting. To better understand this phenomenon, we start by studying a toy linear forecasting problem for which we show that transformers are incapable of converging to their true solution despite their high expressive power. We further identify the attention of transformers as being responsible for this low generalization capacity. Building upon this insight, we propose a shallow lightweight transformer model that successfully escapes bad local minima when optimized with sharpness-aware optimization. We empirically demonstrate that this result extends to all commonly used real-world multivariate time series datasets. In particular, SAMformer surpasses current state-of-the-art methods and is on par with the biggest foundation model MOIRAI while having significantly fewer parameters. The code is available at https://github.com/romilbert/samformer.

Autoregressive (AR) models have recently shown strong performance in image generation, where a critical component is the visual tokenizer (VT) that maps continuous pixel inputs to discrete token sequences. The quality of the VT largely defines the upper bound of AR model performance. However, current discrete VTs fall significantly behind continuous variational autoencoders (VAEs), leading to degraded image reconstructions and poor preservation of details and text. Existing benchmarks focus on end-to-end generation quality, without isolating VT performance. To address this gap, we introduce VTBench, a comprehensive benchmark that systematically evaluates VTs across three core tasks: Image Reconstruction, Detail Preservation, and Text Preservation, and covers a diverse range of evaluation scenarios. We systematically assess state-of-the-art VTs using a set of metrics to evaluate the quality of reconstructed images. Our findings reveal that continuous VAEs produce superior visual representations compared to discrete VTs, particularly in retaining spatial structure and semantic detail. In contrast, the degraded representations produced by discrete VTs often lead to distorted reconstructions, loss of fine-grained textures, and failures in preserving text and object integrity. Furthermore, we conduct experiments on GPT-4o image generation and discuss its potential AR nature, offering new insights into the role of visual tokenization. We release our benchmark and codebase publicly to support further research and call on the community to develop strong, general-purpose open-source VTs.

Foundation models of time series have not been fully developed due to the limited availability of time series corpora and the underexploration of scalable pre-training. Based on the similar sequential formulation of time series and natural language, increasing research demonstrates the feasibility of leveraging large language models (LLM) for time series. Nevertheless, the inherent autoregressive property and decoder-only architecture of LLMs have not been fully considered, resulting in insufficient utilization of LLM abilities. To fully revitalize the general-purpose token transition and multi-step generation capability of large language models, we propose AutoTimes to repurpose LLMs as autoregressive time series forecasters, which projects time series into the embedding space of language tokens and autoregressively generates future predictions with arbitrary lengths. Compatible with any decoder-only LLMs, the consequent forecaster exhibits the flexibility of the lookback length and scalability with larger LLMs. Further, we formulate time series as prompts, extending the context for prediction beyond the lookback window, termed in-context forecasting. By introducing LLM-embedded textual timestamps, AutoTimes can utilize chronological information to align multivariate time series. Empirically, AutoTimes achieves state-of-the-art with 0.1% trainable parameters and over 5times training/inference speedup compared to advanced LLM-based forecasters. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/AutoTimes.

In many domains, autoregressive models can attain high likelihood on the task of predicting the next observation. However, this maximum-likelihood (MLE) objective does not necessarily match a downstream use-case of autoregressively generating high-quality sequences. The MLE objective weights sequences proportionally to their frequency under the data distribution, with no guidance for the model's behaviour out of distribution (OOD): leading to compounding error during autoregressive generation. In order to address this compounding error problem, we formulate sequence generation as an imitation learning (IL) problem. This allows us to minimize a variety of divergences between the distribution of sequences generated by an autoregressive model and sequences from a dataset, including divergences with weight on OOD generated sequences. The IL framework also allows us to incorporate backtracking by introducing a backspace action into the generation process. This further mitigates the compounding error problem by allowing the model to revert a sampled token if it takes the sequence OOD. Our resulting method, SequenceMatch, can be implemented without adversarial training or major architectural changes. We identify the SequenceMatch-chi^2 divergence as a more suitable training objective for autoregressive models which are used for generation. We show that empirically, SequenceMatch training leads to improvements over MLE on text generation with language models.

Multi-behavior sequential recommendation (MBSR) aims to incorporate behavior types of interactions for better recommendations. Existing approaches focus on the next-item prediction objective, neglecting the value of integrating the target behavior type into the learning objective. In this paper, we propose MBGen, a novel Multi-Behavior sequential Generative recommendation framework. We formulate the MBSR task into a consecutive two-step process: (1) given item sequences, MBGen first predicts the next behavior type to frame the user intention, (2) given item sequences and a target behavior type, MBGen then predicts the next items. To model such a two-step process, we tokenize both behaviors and items into tokens and construct one single token sequence with both behaviors and items placed interleaved. Furthermore, MBGen learns to autoregressively generate the next behavior and item tokens in a unified generative recommendation paradigm, naturally enabling a multi-task capability. Additionally, we exploit the heterogeneous nature of token sequences in the generative recommendation and propose a position-routed sparse architecture to efficiently and effectively scale up models. Extensive experiments on public datasets demonstrate that MBGen significantly outperforms existing MBSR models across multiple tasks.

Time series forecasting plays a crucial role in data mining, driving rapid advancements across numerous industries. With the emergence of large models, time series foundation models (TSFMs) have exhibited remarkable generalization capabilities, such as zero-shot learning, through large-scale pre-training. Meanwhile, Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) methods have been widely employed to enhance the performance of foundation models on unseen data, allowing models to access to external knowledge. In this paper, we introduce TimeRAF, a Retrieval-Augmented Forecasting model that enhance zero-shot time series forecasting through retrieval-augmented techniques. We develop customized time series knowledge bases that are tailored to the specific forecasting tasks. TimeRAF employs an end-to-end learnable retriever to extract valuable information from the knowledge base. Additionally, we propose Channel Prompting for knowledge integration, which effectively extracts relevant information from the retrieved knowledge along the channel dimension. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our model, showing significant improvement across various domains and datasets.

Multivariate time series forecasting is an important machine learning problem across many domains, including predictions of solar plant energy output, electricity consumption, and traffic jam situation. Temporal data arise in these real-world applications often involves a mixture of long-term and short-term patterns, for which traditional approaches such as Autoregressive models and Gaussian Process may fail. In this paper, we proposed a novel deep learning framework, namely Long- and Short-term Time-series network (LSTNet), to address this open challenge. LSTNet uses the Convolution Neural Network (CNN) and the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to extract short-term local dependency patterns among variables and to discover long-term patterns for time series trends. Furthermore, we leverage traditional autoregressive model to tackle the scale insensitive problem of the neural network model. In our evaluation on real-world data with complex mixtures of repetitive patterns, LSTNet achieved significant performance improvements over that of several state-of-the-art baseline methods. All the data and experiment codes are available online.

Multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) endeavors to predict future observations given historical data, playing a crucial role in time series data management systems. With advancements in large language models (LLMs), recent studies employ textual prompt tuning to infuse the knowledge of LLMs into MTSF. However, the deployment of LLMs often suffers from low efficiency during the inference phase. To address this problem, we introduce TimeKD, an efficient MTSF framework that leverages the calibrated language models and privileged knowledge distillation. TimeKD aims to generate high-quality future representations from the proposed cross-modality teacher model and cultivate an effective student model. The cross-modality teacher model adopts calibrated language models (CLMs) with ground truth prompts, motivated by the paradigm of Learning Under Privileged Information (LUPI). In addition, we design a subtractive cross attention (SCA) mechanism to refine these representations. To cultivate an effective student model, we propose an innovative privileged knowledge distillation (PKD) mechanism including correlation and feature distillation. PKD enables the student to replicate the teacher's behavior while minimizing their output discrepancy. Extensive experiments on real data offer insight into the effectiveness, efficiency, and scalability of the proposed TimeKD.

Autoregressive models are typically applied to sequences of discrete tokens, but recent research indicates that generating sequences of continuous embeddings in an autoregressive manner is also feasible. However, such Continuous Autoregressive Models (CAMs) can suffer from a decline in generation quality over extended sequences due to error accumulation during inference. We introduce a novel method to address this issue by injecting random noise into the input embeddings during training. This procedure makes the model robust against varying error levels at inference. We further reduce error accumulation through an inference procedure that introduces low-level noise. Experiments on musical audio generation show that CAM substantially outperforms existing autoregressive and non-autoregressive approaches while preserving audio quality over extended sequences. This work paves the way for generating continuous embeddings in a purely autoregressive setting, opening new possibilities for real-time and interactive generative applications.

Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series (MTS) aims to model the predictors of future values of time series given their incomplete past, which is important for many emerging applications. However, most existing methods process MTS's individually, and do not leverage the dynamic distributions underlying the MTS's, leading to sub-optimal results when the sparsity is high. To address this challenge, we propose a novel generative model, which tracks the transition of latent clusters, instead of isolated feature representations, to achieve robust modeling. It is characterized by a newly designed dynamic Gaussian mixture distribution, which captures the dynamics of clustering structures, and is used for emitting timeseries. The generative model is parameterized by neural networks. A structured inference network is also designed for enabling inductive analysis. A gating mechanism is further introduced to dynamically tune the Gaussian mixture distributions. Extensive experimental results on a variety of real-life datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

This work challenges the residual prediction paradigm in visual autoregressive modeling and presents FlexVAR, a new Flexible Visual AutoRegressive image generation paradigm. FlexVAR facilitates autoregressive learning with ground-truth prediction, enabling each step to independently produce plausible images. This simple, intuitive approach swiftly learns visual distributions and makes the generation process more flexible and adaptable. Trained solely on low-resolution images (leq 256px), FlexVAR can: (1) Generate images of various resolutions and aspect ratios, even exceeding the resolution of the training images. (2) Support various image-to-image tasks, including image refinement, in/out-painting, and image expansion. (3) Adapt to various autoregressive steps, allowing for faster inference with fewer steps or enhancing image quality with more steps. Our 1.0B model outperforms its VAR counterpart on the ImageNet 256times256 benchmark. Moreover, when zero-shot transfer the image generation process with 13 steps, the performance further improves to 2.08 FID, outperforming state-of-the-art autoregressive models AiM/VAR by 0.25/0.28 FID and popular diffusion models LDM/DiT by 1.52/0.19 FID, respectively. When transferring our 1.0B model to the ImageNet 512times512 benchmark in a zero-shot manner, FlexVAR achieves competitive results compared to the VAR 2.3B model, which is a fully supervised model trained at 512times512 resolution.

In machine learning (ML), a widespread adage is that the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) is a superior metric for model comparison to the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) for binary classification tasks with class imbalance. This paper challenges this notion through novel mathematical analysis, illustrating that AUROC and AUPRC can be concisely related in probabilistic terms. We demonstrate that AUPRC, contrary to popular belief, is not superior in cases of class imbalance and might even be a harmful metric, given its inclination to unduly favor model improvements in subpopulations with more frequent positive labels. This bias can inadvertently heighten algorithmic disparities. Prompted by these insights, a thorough review of existing ML literature was conducted, utilizing large language models to analyze over 1.5 million papers from arXiv. Our investigation focused on the prevalence and substantiation of the purported AUPRC superiority. The results expose a significant deficit in empirical backing and a trend of misattributions that have fuelled the widespread acceptance of AUPRC's supposed advantages. Our findings represent a dual contribution: a significant technical advancement in understanding metric behaviors and a stark warning about unchecked assumptions in the ML community. All experiments are accessible at https://github.com/mmcdermott/AUC_is_all_you_need.

Conventional Time Series Classification (TSC) methods are often black boxes that obscure inherent interpretation of their decision-making processes. In this work, we leverage Multiple Instance Learning (MIL) to overcome this issue, and propose a new framework called MILLET: Multiple Instance Learning for Locally Explainable Time series classification. We apply MILLET to existing deep learning TSC models and show how they become inherently interpretable without compromising (and in some cases, even improving) predictive performance. We evaluate MILLET on 85 UCR TSC datasets and also present a novel synthetic dataset that is specially designed to facilitate interpretability evaluation. On these datasets, we show MILLET produces sparse explanations quickly that are of higher quality than other well-known interpretability methods. To the best of our knowledge, our work with MILLET, which is available on GitHub (https://github.com/JAEarly/MILTimeSeriesClassification), is the first to develop general MIL methods for TSC and apply them to an extensive variety of domains

Autoregressive models, built based on the Next Token Prediction (NTP) paradigm, show great potential in developing a unified framework that integrates both language and vision tasks. In this work, we rethink the NTP for autoregressive image generation and propose a novel Next Patch Prediction (NPP) paradigm. Our key idea is to group and aggregate image tokens into patch tokens containing high information density. With patch tokens as a shorter input sequence, the autoregressive model is trained to predict the next patch, thereby significantly reducing the computational cost. We further propose a multi-scale coarse-to-fine patch grouping strategy that exploits the natural hierarchical property of image data. Experiments on a diverse range of models (100M-1.4B parameters) demonstrate that the next patch prediction paradigm could reduce the training cost to around 0.6 times while improving image generation quality by up to 1.0 FID score on the ImageNet benchmark. We highlight that our method retains the original autoregressive model architecture without introducing additional trainable parameters or specifically designing a custom image tokenizer, thus ensuring flexibility and seamless adaptation to various autoregressive models for visual generation.

Time series forecasting is widely used in extensive applications, such as traffic planning and weather forecasting. However, real-world time series usually present intricate temporal variations, making forecasting extremely challenging. Going beyond the mainstream paradigms of plain decomposition and multiperiodicity analysis, we analyze temporal variations in a novel view of multiscale-mixing, which is based on an intuitive but important observation that time series present distinct patterns in different sampling scales. The microscopic and the macroscopic information are reflected in fine and coarse scales respectively, and thereby complex variations can be inherently disentangled. Based on this observation, we propose TimeMixer as a fully MLP-based architecture with Past-Decomposable-Mixing (PDM) and Future-Multipredictor-Mixing (FMM) blocks to take full advantage of disentangled multiscale series in both past extraction and future prediction phases. Concretely, PDM applies the decomposition to multiscale series and further mixes the decomposed seasonal and trend components in fine-to-coarse and coarse-to-fine directions separately, which successively aggregates the microscopic seasonal and macroscopic trend information. FMM further ensembles multiple predictors to utilize complementary forecasting capabilities in multiscale observations. Consequently, TimeMixer is able to achieve consistent state-of-the-art performances in both long-term and short-term forecasting tasks with favorable run-time efficiency.

Autoregressive sampling from large language models has led to state-of-the-art results in several natural language tasks. However, autoregressive sampling generates tokens one at a time making it slow, and even prohibitive in certain tasks. One way to speed up sampling is speculative decoding: use a small model to sample a draft (block or sequence of tokens), and then score all tokens in the draft by the large language model in parallel. A subset of the tokens in the draft are accepted (and the rest rejected) based on a statistical method to guarantee that the final output follows the distribution of the large model. In this work, we provide a principled understanding of speculative decoding through the lens of optimal transport (OT) with membership cost. This framework can be viewed as an extension of the well-known maximal-coupling problem. This new formulation enables us to generalize the speculative decoding method to allow for a set of k candidates at the token-level, which leads to an improved optimal membership cost. We show that the optimal draft selection algorithm (transport plan) can be computed via linear programming, whose best-known runtime is exponential in k. We then propose a valid draft selection algorithm whose acceptance probability is (1-1/e)-optimal multiplicatively. Moreover, it can be computed in time almost linear with size of domain of a single token. Using this new draft selection algorithm, we develop a new autoregressive sampling algorithm called SpecTr, which provides speedup in decoding while ensuring that there is no quality degradation in the decoded output. We experimentally demonstrate that for state-of-the-art large language models, the proposed approach achieves a wall clock speedup of 2.13X, a further 1.37X speedup over speculative decoding on standard benchmarks.

As a video task, Multiple Object Tracking (MOT) is expected to capture temporal information of targets effectively. Unfortunately, most existing methods only explicitly exploit the object features between adjacent frames, while lacking the capacity to model long-term temporal information. In this paper, we propose MeMOTR, a long-term memory-augmented Transformer for multi-object tracking. Our method is able to make the same object's track embedding more stable and distinguishable by leveraging long-term memory injection with a customized memory-attention layer. This significantly improves the target association ability of our model. Experimental results on DanceTrack show that MeMOTR impressively surpasses the state-of-the-art method by 7.9% and 13.0% on HOTA and AssA metrics, respectively. Furthermore, our model also outperforms other Transformer-based methods on association performance on MOT17 and generalizes well on BDD100K. Code is available at https://github.com/MCG-NJU/MeMOTR.

We study a family of distributed stochastic optimization algorithms where gradients are sampled by a token traversing a network of agents in random-walk fashion. Typically, these random-walks are chosen to be Markov chains that asymptotically sample from a desired target distribution, and play a critical role in the convergence of the optimization iterates. In this paper, we take a novel approach by replacing the standard linear Markovian token by one which follows a nonlinear Markov chain - namely the Self-Repellent Radom Walk (SRRW). Defined for any given 'base' Markov chain, the SRRW, parameterized by a positive scalar {\alpha}, is less likely to transition to states that were highly visited in the past, thus the name. In the context of MCMC sampling on a graph, a recent breakthrough in Doshi et al. (2023) shows that the SRRW achieves O(1/{\alpha}) decrease in the asymptotic variance for sampling. We propose the use of a 'generalized' version of the SRRW to drive token algorithms for distributed stochastic optimization in the form of stochastic approximation, termed SA-SRRW. We prove that the optimization iterate errors of the resulting SA-SRRW converge to zero almost surely and prove a central limit theorem, deriving the explicit form of the resulting asymptotic covariance matrix corresponding to iterate errors. This asymptotic covariance is always smaller than that of an algorithm driven by the base Markov chain and decreases at rate O(1/{\alpha}^2) - the performance benefit of using SRRW thereby amplified in the stochastic optimization context. Empirical results support our theoretical findings.

Visual Autoregressive (VAR) modeling has garnered significant attention for its innovative next-scale prediction approach, which yields substantial improvements in efficiency, scalability, and zero-shot generalization. Nevertheless, the coarse-to-fine methodology inherent in VAR results in exponential growth of the KV cache during inference, causing considerable memory consumption and computational redundancy. To address these bottlenecks, we introduce ScaleKV, a novel KV cache compression framework tailored for VAR architectures. ScaleKV leverages two critical observations: varying cache demands across transformer layers and distinct attention patterns at different scales. Based on these insights, ScaleKV categorizes transformer layers into two functional groups: drafters and refiners. Drafters exhibit dispersed attention across multiple scales, thereby requiring greater cache capacity. Conversely, refiners focus attention on the current token map to process local details, consequently necessitating substantially reduced cache capacity. ScaleKV optimizes the multi-scale inference pipeline by identifying scale-specific drafters and refiners, facilitating differentiated cache management tailored to each scale. Evaluation on the state-of-the-art text-to-image VAR model family, Infinity, demonstrates that our approach effectively reduces the required KV cache memory to 10% while preserving pixel-level fidelity.

Conventional wisdom suggests that autoregressive models are used to process discrete data. When applied to continuous modalities such as visual data, Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR) typically resorts to quantization-based approaches to cast the data into a discrete space, which can introduce significant information loss. To tackle this issue, we introduce a Continuous VAR framework that enables direct visual autoregressive generation without vector quantization. The underlying theoretical foundation is strictly proper scoring rules, which provide powerful statistical tools capable of evaluating how well a generative model approximates the true distribution. Within this framework, all we need is to select a strictly proper score and set it as the training objective to optimize. We primarily explore a class of training objectives based on the energy score, which is likelihood-free and thus overcomes the difficulty of making probabilistic predictions in the continuous space. Previous efforts on continuous autoregressive generation, such as GIVT and diffusion loss, can also be derived from our framework using other strictly proper scores. Source code: https://github.com/shaochenze/EAR.

Automated radiology report generation offers an effective solution to alleviate radiologists' workload. However, most existing methods focus primarily on single or fixed-view images to model current disease conditions, which limits diagnostic accuracy and overlooks disease progression. Although some approaches utilize longitudinal data to track disease progression, they still rely on single images to analyze current visits. To address these issues, we propose enhanced contrastive learning with Multi-view Longitudinal data to facilitate chest X-ray Report Generation, named MLRG. Specifically, we introduce a multi-view longitudinal contrastive learning method that integrates spatial information from current multi-view images and temporal information from longitudinal data. This method also utilizes the inherent spatiotemporal information of radiology reports to supervise the pre-training of visual and textual representations. Subsequently, we present a tokenized absence encoding technique to flexibly handle missing patient-specific prior knowledge, allowing the model to produce more accurate radiology reports based on available prior knowledge. Extensive experiments on MIMIC-CXR, MIMIC-ABN, and Two-view CXR datasets demonstrate that our MLRG outperforms recent state-of-the-art methods, achieving a 2.3% BLEU-4 improvement on MIMIC-CXR, a 5.5% F1 score improvement on MIMIC-ABN, and a 2.7% F1 RadGraph improvement on Two-view CXR.

The raster-ordered image token sequence exhibits a significant Euclidean distance between index-adjacent tokens at line breaks, making it unsuitable for autoregressive generation. To address this issue, this paper proposes Direction-Aware Diagonal Autoregressive Image Generation (DAR) method, which generates image tokens following a diagonal scanning order. The proposed diagonal scanning order ensures that tokens with adjacent indices remain in close proximity while enabling causal attention to gather information from a broader range of directions. Additionally, two direction-aware modules: 4D-RoPE and direction embeddings are introduced, enhancing the model's capability to handle frequent changes in generation direction. To leverage the representational capacity of the image tokenizer, we use its codebook as the image token embeddings. We propose models of varying scales, ranging from 485M to 2.0B. On the 256times256 ImageNet benchmark, our DAR-XL (2.0B) outperforms all previous autoregressive image generators, achieving a state-of-the-art FID score of 1.37.

Autoregressive language models accumulate errors due to their fixed, irrevocable left-to-right token generation. To address this, we propose a new sampling method called Resample-Previous-Tokens (RPT). RPT mitigates error accumulation by iteratively revisiting and potentially replacing tokens in a window of previously generated text. This method can be integrated into existing autoregressive models, preserving their next-token-prediction quality and speed. Fine-tuning a pretrained 8B parameter model with RPT for only 100B resulted in ~10% relative improvements on reasoning and coding benchmarks compared to the standard sampling.

The rehearsal strategy is widely used to alleviate the catastrophic forgetting problem in class incremental learning (CIL) by preserving limited exemplars from previous tasks. With imbalanced sample numbers between old and new classes, the classifier learning can be biased. Existing CIL methods exploit the long-tailed (LT) recognition techniques, e.g., the adjusted losses and the data re-sampling methods, to handle the data imbalance issue within each increment task. In this work, the dynamic nature of data imbalance in CIL is shown and a novel Dynamic Residual Classifier (DRC) is proposed to handle this challenging scenario. Specifically, DRC is built upon a recent advance residual classifier with the branch layer merging to handle the model-growing problem. Moreover, DRC is compatible with different CIL pipelines and substantially improves them. Combining DRC with the model adaptation and fusion (MAF) pipeline, this method achieves state-of-the-art results on both the conventional CIL and the LT-CIL benchmarks. Extensive experiments are also conducted for a detailed analysis. The code is publicly available.

Continuous-valued Autoregressive (AR) image generation models have demonstrated notable superiority over their discrete-token counterparts, showcasing considerable reconstruction quality and higher generation fidelity. However, the computational demands of the autoregressive framework result in significant inference overhead. While speculative decoding has proven effective in accelerating Large Language Models (LLMs), their adaptation to continuous-valued visual autoregressive models remains unexplored. This work generalizes the speculative decoding algorithm from discrete tokens to continuous space. By analyzing the intrinsic properties of output distribution, we establish a tailored acceptance criterion for the diffusion distributions prevalent in such models. To overcome the inconsistency that occurred in speculative decoding output distributions, we introduce denoising trajectory alignment and token pre-filling methods. Additionally, we identify the hard-to-sample distribution in the rejection phase. To mitigate this issue, we propose a meticulous acceptance-rejection sampling method with a proper upper bound, thereby circumventing complex integration. Experimental results show that our continuous speculative decoding achieves a remarkable 2.33times speed-up on off-the-shelf models while maintaining the output distribution. Codes will be available at https://github.com/MarkXCloud/CSpD

AI systems are notorious for their fragility; minor input changes can potentially cause major output swings. When such systems are deployed in critical areas like finance, the consequences of their uncertain behavior could be severe. In this paper, we focus on multi-modal time-series forecasting, where imprecision due to noisy or incorrect data can lead to erroneous predictions, impacting stakeholders such as analysts, investors, and traders. Recently, it has been shown that beyond numeric data, graphical transformations can be used with advanced visual models to achieve better performance. In this context, we introduce a rating methodology to assess the robustness of Multi-Modal Time-Series Forecasting Models (MM-TSFM) through causal analysis, which helps us understand and quantify the isolated impact of various attributes on the forecasting accuracy of MM-TSFM. We apply our novel rating method on a variety of numeric and multi-modal forecasting models in a large experimental setup (six input settings of control and perturbations, ten data distributions, time series from six leading stocks in three industries over a year of data, and five time-series forecasters) to draw insights on robust forecasting models and the context of their strengths. Within the scope of our study, our main result is that multi-modal (numeric + visual) forecasting, which was found to be more accurate than numeric forecasting in previous studies, can also be more robust in diverse settings. Our work will help different stakeholders of time-series forecasting understand the models` behaviors along trust (robustness) and accuracy dimensions to select an appropriate model for forecasting using our rating method, leading to improved decision-making.

Tabular data is a common form of organizing data. Multiple models are available to generate synthetic tabular datasets where observations are independent, but few have the ability to produce relational datasets. Modeling relational data is challenging as it requires modeling both a "parent" table and its relationships across tables. We introduce REaLTabFormer (Realistic Relational and Tabular Transformer), a tabular and relational synthetic data generation model. It first creates a parent table using an autoregressive GPT-2 model, then generates the relational dataset conditioned on the parent table using a sequence-to-sequence (Seq2Seq) model. We implement target masking to prevent data copying and propose the Q_{delta} statistic and statistical bootstrapping to detect overfitting. Experiments using real-world datasets show that REaLTabFormer captures the relational structure better than a baseline model. REaLTabFormer also achieves state-of-the-art results on prediction tasks, "out-of-the-box", for large non-relational datasets without needing fine-tuning.

Partial correlations quantify linear association between two variables adjusting for the influence of the remaining variables. They form the backbone for graphical models and are readily obtained from the inverse of the covariance matrix. For compositional data, the covariance structure is specified from log ratios of variables, so unless we try to "open" the data via a normalization, this implies changes in the definition and interpretation of partial correlations. In the present work, we elucidate how results derived by Aitchison (1986) lead to a natural definition of partial correlation that has a number of advantages over current measures of association. For this, we show that the residuals of log-ratios between a variable with a reference, when adjusting for all remaining variables including the reference, are reference-independent. Since the reference itself can be controlled for, correlations between residuals are defined for the variables directly without the necessity to recur to ratios except when specifying which variables are partialled out. Thus, perhaps surprisingly, partial correlations do not have the problems commonly found with measures of pairwise association on compositional data. They are well-defined between two variables, are properly scaled, and allow for negative association. By design, they are subcompositionally incoherent, but they share this property with conventional partial correlations (where results change when adjusting for the influence of fewer variables). We discuss the equivalence with normalization-based approaches whenever the normalizing variables are controlled for. We also discuss the partial variances and correlations we obtain from a previously studied data set of Roman glass cups.

The autoregressive nature of conventional large language models (LLMs) inherently limits inference speed, as tokens are generated sequentially. While speculative and parallel decoding techniques attempt to mitigate this, they face limitations: either relying on less accurate smaller models for generation or failing to fully leverage the base LLM's representations. We introduce a novel architecture, Tandem transformers, to address these issues. This architecture uniquely combines (1) a small autoregressive model and (2) a large model operating in block mode (processing multiple tokens simultaneously). The small model's predictive accuracy is substantially enhanced by granting it attention to the large model's richer representations. On the PaLM2 pretraining dataset, a tandem of PaLM2-Bison and PaLM2-Gecko demonstrates a 3.3% improvement in next-token prediction accuracy over a standalone PaLM2-Gecko, offering a 1.16x speedup compared to a PaLM2-Otter model with comparable downstream performance. We further incorporate the tandem model within the speculative decoding (SPEED) framework where the large model validates tokens from the small model. This ensures that the Tandem of PaLM2-Bison and PaLM2-Gecko achieves substantial speedup (around 1.14x faster than using vanilla PaLM2-Gecko in SPEED) while maintaining identical downstream task accuracy.

In this study, we propose Feature-aligned N-BEATS as a domain generalization model for univariate time series forecasting problems. The proposed model is an extension of the doubly residual stacking architecture of N-BEATS (Oreshkin et al. [34]) into a representation learning framework. The model is a new structure that involves marginal feature probability measures (i.e., pushforward measures of multiple source domains) induced by the intricate composition of residual operators of N-BEATS in each stack and aligns them stack-wise via an entropic regularized Wasserstein distance referred to as the Sinkhorn divergence (Genevay et al. [14]). The loss function consists of a typical forecasting loss for multiple source domains and an alignment loss calculated with the Sinkhorn divergence, which allows the model to learn invariant features stack-wise across multiple source data sequences while retaining N-BEATS's interpretable design. We conduct a comprehensive experimental evaluation of the proposed approach and the results demonstrate the model's forecasting and generalization capabilities in comparison with methods based on the original N-BEATS.

Instrumental variable methods have been widely used to identify causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. A key identification condition known as the exclusion restriction states that the instrument cannot have a direct effect on the outcome which is not mediated by the exposure in view. In the health and social sciences, such an assumption is often not credible. To address this concern, we consider identification conditions of the population average treatment effect with an invalid instrumental variable which does not satisfy the exclusion restriction, and derive the efficient influence function targeting the identifying functional under a nonparametric observed data model. We propose a novel multiply robust locally efficient estimator of the average treatment effect that is consistent in the union of multiple parametric nuisance models, as well as a multiply debiased machine learning estimator for which the nuisance parameters are estimated using generic machine learning methods, that effectively exploit various forms of linear or nonlinear structured sparsity in the nuisance parameter space. When one cannot be confident that any of these machine learners is consistent at sufficiently fast rates to ensure n-consistency for the average treatment effect, we introduce a new criteria for selective machine learning which leverages the multiple robustness property in order to ensure small bias. The proposed methods are illustrated through extensive simulations and a data analysis evaluating the causal effect of 401(k) participation on savings.

Identifying low-dimensional latent structures within high-dimensional data has long been a central topic in the machine learning community, driven by the need for data compression, storage, transmission, and deeper data understanding. Traditional methods, such as principal component analysis (PCA) and autoencoders (AE), operate in an unsupervised manner, ignoring label information even when it is available. In this work, we introduce a unified method capable of learning latent spaces in both unsupervised and supervised settings. We formulate the problem as a nonlinear multiple-response regression within an index model context. By applying the generalized Stein's lemma, the latent space can be estimated without knowing the nonlinear link functions. Our method can be viewed as a nonlinear generalization of PCA. Moreover, unlike AE and other neural network methods that operate as "black boxes", our approach not only offers better interpretability but also reduces computational complexity while providing strong theoretical guarantees. Comprehensive numerical experiments and real data analyses demonstrate the superior performance of our method.

Time series foundation models have shown impressive performance on a variety of tasks, across a wide range of domains, even in zero-shot settings. However, most of these models are designed to handle short univariate time series as an input. This limits their practical use, especially in domains such as healthcare with copious amounts of long and multivariate data with strong temporal and intra-variate dependencies. Our study bridges this gap by cataloging and systematically comparing various context expansion techniques from both language and time series domains, and introducing a novel compressive memory mechanism to allow encoder-only TSFMs to effectively model intra-variate dependencies. We demonstrate the benefits of our approach by imbuing MOMENT, a recent family of multi-task time series foundation models, with the multivariate context.

We propose an efficient design of Transformer-based models for multivariate time series forecasting and self-supervised representation learning. It is based on two key components: (i) segmentation of time series into subseries-level patches which are served as input tokens to Transformer; (ii) channel-independence where each channel contains a single univariate time series that shares the same embedding and Transformer weights across all the series. Patching design naturally has three-fold benefit: local semantic information is retained in the embedding; computation and memory usage of the attention maps are quadratically reduced given the same look-back window; and the model can attend longer history. Our channel-independent patch time series Transformer (PatchTST) can improve the long-term forecasting accuracy significantly when compared with that of SOTA Transformer-based models. We also apply our model to self-supervised pre-training tasks and attain excellent fine-tuning performance, which outperforms supervised training on large datasets. Transferring of masked pre-trained representation on one dataset to others also produces SOTA forecasting accuracy. Code is available at: https://github.com/yuqinie98/PatchTST.

Supervised learning is often affected by a covariate shift in which the marginal distributions of instances (covariates x) of training and testing samples p_tr(x) and p_te(x) are different but the label conditionals coincide. Existing approaches address such covariate shift by either using the ratio p_te(x)/p_tr(x) to weight training samples (reweighted methods) or using the ratio p_tr(x)/p_te(x) to weight testing samples (robust methods). However, the performance of such approaches can be poor under support mismatch or when the above ratios take large values. We propose a minimax risk classification (MRC) approach for covariate shift adaptation that avoids such limitations by weighting both training and testing samples. In addition, we develop effective techniques that obtain both sets of weights and generalize the conventional kernel mean matching method. We provide novel generalization bounds for our method that show a significant increase in the effective sample size compared with reweighted methods. The proposed method also achieves enhanced classification performance in both synthetic and empirical experiments.

Despite the promising performance of state space models (SSMs) in long sequence modeling, limitations still exist. Advanced SSMs like S5 and S6 (Mamba) in addressing non-uniform sampling, their recursive structures impede efficient SSM computation via convolution. To overcome compatibility limitations in parallel convolutional computation, this paper proposes a novel non-recursive non-uniform sample processing strategy. Theoretical analysis of SSMs through the lens of Event-Triggered Control (ETC) theory reveals the Non-Stable State (NSS) problem, where deviations from sampling point requirements lead to error transmission and accumulation, causing the divergence of the SSM's hidden state. Our analysis further reveals that adjustments of input sequences with early memories can mitigate the NSS problem, achieving Sampling Step Adaptation (SSA). Building on this insight, we introduce a simple yet effective plug-and-play mechanism, State Memory Replay (SMR), which utilizes learnable memories to adjust the current state with multi-step information for generalization at sampling points different from those in the training data. This enables SSMs to stably model varying sampling points. Experiments on long-range modeling tasks in autoregressive language modeling and Long Range Arena demonstrate the general effectiveness of the SMR mechanism for a series of SSM models.

The sequential nature of modern LLMs makes them expensive and slow, and speculative sampling has proven to be an effective solution to this problem. Methods like EAGLE perform autoregression at the feature level, reusing top-layer features from the target model to achieve better results than vanilla speculative sampling. A growing trend in the LLM community is scaling up training data to improve model intelligence without increasing inference costs. However, we observe that scaling up data provides limited improvements for EAGLE. We identify that this limitation arises from EAGLE's feature prediction constraints. In this paper, we introduce EAGLE-3, which abandons feature prediction in favor of direct token prediction and replaces reliance on top-layer features with multi-layer feature fusion via a technique named training-time test. These improvements significantly enhance performance and enable the draft model to fully benefit from scaling up training data. Our experiments include both chat models and reasoning models, evaluated on five tasks. The results show that EAGLE-3 achieves a speedup ratio up to 6.5x, with about 1.4x improvement over EAGLE-2. The code is available at https://github.com/SafeAILab/EAGLE.

Autoregressive models, such as the GPT family, use a fixed order, usually left-to-right, to generate sequences. However, this is not a necessity. In this paper, we challenge this assumption and show that by simply adding a positional encoding for the output, this order can be modulated on-the-fly per-sample which offers key advantageous properties. It allows for the sampling of and conditioning on arbitrary subsets of tokens, and it also allows sampling in one shot multiple tokens dynamically according to a rejection strategy, leading to a sub-linear number of model evaluations. We evaluate our method across various domains, including language modeling, path-solving, and aircraft vertical rate prediction, decreasing the number of steps required for generation by an order of magnitude.

Diffusion language models offer parallel token generation and inherent bidirectionality, promising more efficient and powerful sequence modeling compared to autoregressive approaches. However, state-of-the-art diffusion models (e.g., Dream 7B, LLaDA 8B) suffer from slow inference. While they match the quality of similarly sized Autoregressive (AR) Models (e.g., Qwen2.5 7B, Llama3 8B), their iterative denoising requires multiple full-sequence forward passes, resulting in high computational costs and latency, particularly for long input prompts and long-context scenarios. Furthermore, parallel token generation introduces token incoherence problems, and current sampling heuristics suffer from significant quality drops with decreasing denoising steps. We address these limitations with two training-free techniques. First, we propose FreeCache, a Key-Value (KV) approximation caching technique that reuses stable KV projections across denoising steps, effectively reducing the computational cost of DLM inference. Second, we introduce Guided Diffusion, a training-free method that uses a lightweight pretrained autoregressive model to supervise token unmasking, dramatically reducing the total number of denoising iterations without sacrificing quality. We conduct extensive evaluations on open-source reasoning benchmarks, and our combined methods deliver up to a 34x end-to-end speedup without compromising accuracy. For the first time, diffusion language models achieve a comparable and even faster latency as the widely adopted autoregressive models. Our work successfully paved the way for scaling up the diffusion language model to a broader scope of applications across different domains.

Future surveys such as the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory will observe an order of magnitude more astrophysical transient events than any previous survey before. With this deluge of photometric data, it will be impossible for all such events to be classified by humans alone. Recent efforts have sought to leverage machine learning methods to tackle the challenge of astronomical transient classification, with ever improving success. Transformers are a recently developed deep learning architecture, first proposed for natural language processing, that have shown a great deal of recent success. In this work we develop a new transformer architecture, which uses multi-head self attention at its core, for general multi-variate time-series data. Furthermore, the proposed time-series transformer architecture supports the inclusion of an arbitrary number of additional features, while also offering interpretability. We apply the time-series transformer to the task of photometric classification, minimising the reliance of expert domain knowledge for feature selection, while achieving results comparable to state-of-the-art photometric classification methods. We achieve a logarithmic-loss of 0.507 on imbalanced data in a representative setting using data from the Photometric LSST Astronomical Time-Series Classification Challenge (PLAsTiCC). Moreover, we achieve a micro-averaged receiver operating characteristic area under curve of 0.98 and micro-averaged precision-recall area under curve of 0.87.

Unified generation of sequence and structure for scientific data (e.g., materials, molecules, proteins) is a critical task. Existing approaches primarily rely on either autoregressive sequence models or diffusion models, each offering distinct advantages and facing notable limitations. Autoregressive models, such as GPT, Llama, and Phi-4, have demonstrated remarkable success in natural language generation and have been extended to multimodal tasks (e.g., image, video, and audio) using advanced encoders like VQ-VAE to represent complex modalities as discrete sequences. However, their direct application to scientific domains is challenging due to the high precision requirements and the diverse nature of scientific data. On the other hand, diffusion models excel at generating high-dimensional scientific data, such as protein, molecule, and material structures, with remarkable accuracy. Yet, their inability to effectively model sequences limits their potential as general-purpose multimodal foundation models. To address these challenges, we propose UniGenX, a unified framework that combines autoregressive next-token prediction with conditional diffusion models. This integration leverages the strengths of autoregressive models to ease the training of conditional diffusion models, while diffusion-based generative heads enhance the precision of autoregressive predictions. We validate the effectiveness of UniGenX on material and small molecule generation tasks, achieving a significant leap in state-of-the-art performance for material crystal structure prediction and establishing new state-of-the-art results for small molecule structure prediction, de novo design, and conditional generation. Notably, UniGenX demonstrates significant improvements, especially in handling long sequences for complex structures, showcasing its efficacy as a versatile tool for scientific data generation.

SDForger is a flexible and efficient framework for generating high-quality multivariate time series using LLMs. Leveraging a compact data representation, SDForger provides synthetic time series generation from a few samples and low-computation fine-tuning of any autoregressive LLM. Specifically, the framework transforms univariate and multivariate signals into tabular embeddings, which are then encoded into text and used to fine-tune the LLM. At inference, new textual embeddings are sampled and decoded into synthetic time series that retain the original data's statistical properties and temporal dynamics. Across a diverse range of datasets, SDForger outperforms existing generative models in many scenarios, both in similarity-based evaluations and downstream forecasting tasks. By enabling textual conditioning in the generation process, SDForger paves the way for multimodal modeling and the streamlined integration of time series with textual information. SDForger source code will be open-sourced soon.

Recent studies have demonstrated the great power of Transformer models for time series forecasting. One of the key elements that lead to the transformer's success is the channel-independent (CI) strategy to improve the training robustness. However, the ignorance of the correlation among different channels in CI would limit the model's forecasting capacity. In this work, we design a special Transformer, i.e., Channel Aligned Robust Blend Transformer (CARD for short), that addresses key shortcomings of CI type Transformer in time series forecasting. First, CARD introduces a channel-aligned attention structure that allows it to capture both temporal correlations among signals and dynamical dependence among multiple variables over time. Second, in order to efficiently utilize the multi-scale knowledge, we design a token blend module to generate tokens with different resolutions. Third, we introduce a robust loss function for time series forecasting to alleviate the potential overfitting issue. This new loss function weights the importance of forecasting over a finite horizon based on prediction uncertainties. Our evaluation of multiple long-term and short-term forecasting datasets demonstrates that CARD significantly outperforms state-of-the-art time series forecasting methods. The code is available at the following repository:https://github.com/wxie9/CARD

Autoregressive models excel in modeling sequential dependencies by enforcing causal constraints, yet they struggle to capture complex bidirectional patterns due to their unidirectional nature. In contrast, mask-based models leverage bidirectional context, enabling richer dependency modeling. However, they often assume token independence during prediction, which undermines the modeling of sequential dependencies. Additionally, the corruption of sequences through masking or absorption can introduce unnatural distortions, complicating the learning process. To address these issues, we propose Bidirectional Autoregressive Diffusion (BAD), a novel approach that unifies the strengths of autoregressive and mask-based generative models. BAD utilizes a permutation-based corruption technique that preserves the natural sequence structure while enforcing causal dependencies through randomized ordering, enabling the effective capture of both sequential and bidirectional relationships. Comprehensive experiments show that BAD outperforms autoregressive and mask-based models in text-to-motion generation, suggesting a novel pre-training strategy for sequence modeling. The codebase for BAD is available on https://github.com/RohollahHS/BAD.

We consider the problem of linear estimation, and establish an extension of the Gauss-Markov theorem, in which the bias operator is allowed to be non-zero but bounded with respect to a matrix norm of Schatten type. We derive simple and explicit formulas for the optimal estimator in the cases of Nuclear and Spectral norms (with the Frobenius case recovering ridge regression). Additionally, we analytically derive the generalization error in multiple random matrix ensembles, and compare with Ridge regression. Finally, we conduct an extensive simulation study, in which we show that the cross-validated Nuclear and Spectral regressors can outperform Ridge in several circumstances.

Time series modeling is a well-established problem, which often requires that methods (1) expressively represent complicated dependencies, (2) forecast long horizons, and (3) efficiently train over long sequences. State-space models (SSMs) are classical models for time series, and prior works combine SSMs with deep learning layers for efficient sequence modeling. However, we find fundamental limitations with these prior approaches, proving their SSM representations cannot express autoregressive time series processes. We thus introduce SpaceTime, a new state-space time series architecture that improves all three criteria. For expressivity, we propose a new SSM parameterization based on the companion matrix -- a canonical representation for discrete-time processes -- which enables SpaceTime's SSM layers to learn desirable autoregressive processes. For long horizon forecasting, we introduce a "closed-loop" variation of the companion SSM, which enables SpaceTime to predict many future time-steps by generating its own layer-wise inputs. For efficient training and inference, we introduce an algorithm that reduces the memory and compute of a forward pass with the companion matrix. With sequence length ell and state-space size d, we go from O(d ell) na\"ively to O(d + ell). In experiments, our contributions lead to state-of-the-art results on extensive and diverse benchmarks, with best or second-best AUROC on 6 / 7 ECG and speech time series classification, and best MSE on 14 / 16 Informer forecasting tasks. Furthermore, we find SpaceTime (1) fits AR(p) processes that prior deep SSMs fail on, (2) forecasts notably more accurately on longer horizons than prior state-of-the-art, and (3) speeds up training on real-world ETTh1 data by 73% and 80% relative wall-clock time over Transformers and LSTMs.

Most Neural Radiance Fields (NeRFs) exhibit limited generalization capabilities, which restrict their applicability in representing multiple scenes using a single model. To address this problem, existing generalizable NeRF methods simply condition the model on image features. These methods still struggle to learn precise global representations over diverse scenes since they lack an effective mechanism for interacting among different points and views. In this work, we unveil that 3D implicit representation learning can be significantly improved by mask-based modeling. Specifically, we propose masked ray and view modeling for generalizable NeRF (MRVM-NeRF), which is a self-supervised pretraining target to predict complete scene representations from partially masked features along each ray. With this pretraining target, MRVM-NeRF enables better use of correlations across different points and views as the geometry priors, which thereby strengthens the capability of capturing intricate details within the scenes and boosts the generalization capability across different scenes. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed MRVM-NeRF on both synthetic and real-world datasets, qualitatively and quantitatively. Besides, we also conduct experiments to show the compatibility of our proposed method with various backbones and its superiority under few-shot cases.

We consider the problem of estimating (diagonally dominant) M-matrices as precision matrices in Gaussian graphical models. These models exhibit intriguing properties, such as the existence of the maximum likelihood estimator with merely two observations for M-matrices lauritzen2019maximum,slawski2015estimation and even one observation for diagonally dominant M-matrices truell2021maximum. We propose an adaptive multiple-stage estimation method that refines the estimate by solving a weighted ell_1-regularized problem at each stage. Furthermore, we develop a unified framework based on the gradient projection method to solve the regularized problem, incorporating distinct projections to handle the constraints of M-matrices and diagonally dominant M-matrices. A theoretical analysis of the estimation error is provided. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in precision matrix estimation and graph edge identification, as evidenced by synthetic and financial time-series data sets.

Time series data are ubiquitous across a wide range of real-world domains. While real-world time series analysis (TSA) requires human experts to integrate numerical series data with multimodal domain-specific knowledge, most existing TSA models rely solely on numerical data, overlooking the significance of information beyond numerical series. This oversight is due to the untapped potential of textual series data and the absence of a comprehensive, high-quality multimodal dataset. To overcome this obstacle, we introduce Time-MMD, the first multi-domain, multimodal time series dataset covering 9 primary data domains. Time-MMD ensures fine-grained modality alignment, eliminates data contamination, and provides high usability. Additionally, we develop MM-TSFlib, the first multimodal time-series forecasting (TSF) library, seamlessly pipelining multimodal TSF evaluations based on Time-MMD for in-depth analyses. Extensive experiments conducted on Time-MMD through MM-TSFlib demonstrate significant performance enhancements by extending unimodal TSF to multimodality, evidenced by over 15% mean squared error reduction in general, and up to 40% in domains with rich textual data. More importantly, our datasets and library revolutionize broader applications, impacts, research topics to advance TSA. The dataset and library are available at https://github.com/AdityaLab/Time-MMD and https://github.com/AdityaLab/MM-TSFlib.

In this note we examine the autoregressive generalization of the FNet algorithm, in which self-attention layers from the standard Transformer architecture are substituted with a trivial sparse-uniformsampling procedure based on Fourier transforms. Using the Wikitext-103 benchmark, we demonstratethat FNetAR retains state-of-the-art performance (25.8 ppl) on the task of causal language modelingcompared to a Transformer-XL baseline (24.2 ppl) with only half the number self-attention layers,thus providing further evidence for the superfluity of deep neural networks with heavily compoundedattention mechanisms. The autoregressive Fourier transform could likely be used for parameterreduction on most Transformer-based time-series prediction models.

Transformers have recently dominated the ASR field. Although able to yield good performance, they involve an autoregressive (AR) decoder to generate tokens one by one, which is computationally inefficient. To speed up inference, non-autoregressive (NAR) methods, e.g. single-step NAR, were designed, to enable parallel generation. However, due to an independence assumption within the output tokens, performance of single-step NAR is inferior to that of AR models, especially with a large-scale corpus. There are two challenges to improving single-step NAR: Firstly to accurately predict the number of output tokens and extract hidden variables; secondly, to enhance modeling of interdependence between output tokens. To tackle both challenges, we propose a fast and accurate parallel transformer, termed Paraformer. This utilizes a continuous integrate-and-fire based predictor to predict the number of tokens and generate hidden variables. A glancing language model (GLM) sampler then generates semantic embeddings to enhance the NAR decoder's ability to model context interdependence. Finally, we design a strategy to generate negative samples for minimum word error rate training to further improve performance. Experiments using the public AISHELL-1, AISHELL-2 benchmark, and an industrial-level 20,000 hour task demonstrate that the proposed Paraformer can attain comparable performance to the state-of-the-art AR transformer, with more than 10x speedup.

Multivariate time series data for real-world applications typically contain a significant amount of missing values. The dominant approach for classification with such missing values is to impute them heuristically with specific values (zero, mean, values of adjacent time-steps) or learnable parameters. However, these simple strategies do not take the data generative process into account, and more importantly, do not effectively capture the uncertainty in prediction due to the multiple possibilities for the missing values. In this paper, we propose a novel probabilistic framework for classification with multivariate time series data with missing values. Our model consists of two parts; a deep generative model for missing value imputation and a classifier. Extending the existing deep generative models to better capture structures of time-series data, our deep generative model part is trained to impute the missing values in multiple plausible ways, effectively modeling the uncertainty of the imputation. The classifier part takes the time series data along with the imputed missing values and classifies signals, and is trained to capture the predictive uncertainty due to the multiple possibilities of imputations. Importantly, we show that na\"ively combining the generative model and the classifier could result in trivial solutions where the generative model does not produce meaningful imputations. To resolve this, we present a novel regularization technique that can promote the model to produce useful imputation values that help classification. Through extensive experiments on real-world time series data with missing values, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Residual transformations enhance the representational depth and expressive power of large language models (LLMs). However, applying static residual transformations across all tokens in auto-regressive generation leads to a suboptimal trade-off between inference efficiency and generation fidelity. Existing methods, including Early Exiting, Skip Decoding, and Mixture-of-Depth address this by modulating the residual transformation based on token-level complexity. Nevertheless, these approaches predominantly consider the distance traversed by tokens through the model layers, neglecting the underlying velocity of residual evolution. We introduce Mixture of Multi-rate Residuals (M2R2), a framework that dynamically modulates residual velocity to improve early alignment, enhancing inference efficiency. Evaluations on reasoning oriented tasks such as Koala, Self-Instruct, WizardLM, and MT-Bench show M2R2 surpasses state-of-the-art distance-based strategies, balancing generation quality and speedup. In self-speculative decoding setup, M2R2 achieves up to 2.8x speedups on MT-Bench, outperforming methods like 2-model speculative decoding, Medusa, LookAhead Decoding, and DEED. In Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures, integrating early residual alignment with ahead-of-time expert loading into high-bandwidth memory (HBM) accelerates decoding, reduces expert-switching bottlenecks, and achieves a 2.9x speedup, making it highly effective in resource-constrained environments.

Recent advances in deep learning have mainly relied on Transformers due to their data dependency and ability to learn at scale. The attention module in these architectures, however, exhibits quadratic time and space in input size, limiting their scalability for long-sequence modeling. Despite recent attempts to design efficient and effective architecture backbone for multi-dimensional data, such as images and multivariate time series, existing models are either data independent, or fail to allow inter- and intra-dimension communication. Recently, State Space Models (SSMs), and more specifically Selective State Space Models, with efficient hardware-aware implementation, have shown promising potential for long sequence modeling. Motivated by the success of SSMs, we present MambaMixer, a new architecture with data-dependent weights that uses a dual selection mechanism across tokens and channels, called Selective Token and Channel Mixer. MambaMixer connects selective mixers using a weighted averaging mechanism, allowing layers to have direct access to early features. As a proof of concept, we design Vision MambaMixer (ViM2) and Time Series MambaMixer (TSM2) architectures based on the MambaMixer block and explore their performance in various vision and time series forecasting tasks. Our results underline the importance of selective mixing across both tokens and channels. In ImageNet classification, object detection, and semantic segmentation tasks, ViM2 achieves competitive performance with well-established vision models and outperforms SSM-based vision models. In time series forecasting, TSM2 achieves outstanding performance compared to state-of-the-art methods while demonstrating significantly improved computational cost. These results show that while Transformers, cross-channel attention, and MLPs are sufficient for good performance in time series forecasting, neither is necessary.

Much recent effort has been invested in non-autoregressive neural machine translation, which appears to be an efficient alternative to state-of-the-art autoregressive machine translation on modern GPUs. In contrast to the latter, where generation is sequential, the former allows generation to be parallelized across target token positions. Some of the latest non-autoregressive models have achieved impressive translation quality-speed tradeoffs compared to autoregressive baselines. In this work, we reexamine this tradeoff and argue that autoregressive baselines can be substantially sped up without loss in accuracy. Specifically, we study autoregressive models with encoders and decoders of varied depths. Our extensive experiments show that given a sufficiently deep encoder, a single-layer autoregressive decoder can substantially outperform strong non-autoregressive models with comparable inference speed. We show that the speed disadvantage for autoregressive baselines compared to non-autoregressive methods has been overestimated in three aspects: suboptimal layer allocation, insufficient speed measurement, and lack of knowledge distillation. Our results establish a new protocol for future research toward fast, accurate machine translation. Our code is available at https://github.com/jungokasai/deep-shallow.

Multivariate probabilistic time series forecasts are commonly evaluated via proper scoring rules, i.e., functions that are minimal in expectation for the ground-truth distribution. However, this property is not sufficient to guarantee good discrimination in the non-asymptotic regime. In this paper, we provide the first systematic finite-sample study of proper scoring rules for time-series forecasting evaluation. Through a power analysis, we identify the "region of reliability" of a scoring rule, i.e., the set of practical conditions where it can be relied on to identify forecasting errors. We carry out our analysis on a comprehensive synthetic benchmark, specifically designed to test several key discrepancies between ground-truth and forecast distributions, and we gauge the generalizability of our findings to real-world tasks with an application to an electricity production problem. Our results reveal critical shortcomings in the evaluation of multivariate probabilistic forecasts as commonly performed in the literature.

Clinical routine and retrospective cohorts commonly include multi-parametric Magnetic Resonance Imaging; however, they are mostly acquired in different anisotropic 2D views due to signal-to-noise-ratio and scan-time constraints. Thus acquired views suffer from poor out-of-plane resolution and affect downstream volumetric image analysis that typically requires isotropic 3D scans. Combining different views of multi-contrast scans into high-resolution isotropic 3D scans is challenging due to the lack of a large training cohort, which calls for a subject-specific framework. This work proposes a novel solution to this problem leveraging Implicit Neural Representations (INR). Our proposed INR jointly learns two different contrasts of complementary views in a continuous spatial function and benefits from exchanging anatomical information between them. Trained within minutes on a single commodity GPU, our model provides realistic super-resolution across different pairs of contrasts in our experiments with three datasets. Using Mutual Information (MI) as a metric, we find that our model converges to an optimum MI amongst sequences, achieving anatomically faithful reconstruction. Code is available at: https://github.com/jqmcginnis/multi_contrast_inr/

Autoregressive decoding is the only part of sequence-to-sequence models that prevents them from massive parallelization at inference time. Non-autoregressive models enable the decoder to generate all output symbols independently in parallel. We present a novel non-autoregressive architecture based on connectionist temporal classification and evaluate it on the task of neural machine translation. Unlike other non-autoregressive methods which operate in several steps, our model can be trained end-to-end. We conduct experiments on the WMT English-Romanian and English-German datasets. Our models achieve a significant speedup over the autoregressive models, keeping the translation quality comparable to other non-autoregressive models.

Underlying data structures, such as symmetries or invariances to transformations, are often exploited to improve the solution of learning tasks. However, embedding these properties in models or learning algorithms can be challenging and computationally intensive. Data augmentation, on the other hand, induces these symmetries during training by applying multiple transformations to the input data. Despite its ubiquity, its effectiveness depends on the choices of which transformations to apply, when to do so, and how often. In fact, there is both empirical and theoretical evidence that the indiscriminate use of data augmentation can introduce biases that outweigh its benefits. This work tackles these issues by automatically adapting the data augmentation while solving the learning task. To do so, it formulates data augmentation as an invariance-constrained learning problem and leverages Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) sampling to solve it. The result is a practical algorithm that not only does away with a priori searches for augmentation distributions, but also dynamically controls if and when data augmentation is applied. Our experiments illustrate the performance of this method, which achieves state-of-the-art results in automatic data augmentation benchmarks for CIFAR datasets. Furthermore, this approach can be used to gather insights on the actual symmetries underlying a learning task.

We propose Low-Rank Sparse Attention (Lorsa), a sparse replacement model of Transformer attention layers to disentangle original Multi Head Self Attention (MHSA) into individually comprehensible components. Lorsa is designed to address the challenge of attention superposition to understand attention-mediated interaction between features in different token positions. We show that Lorsa heads find cleaner and finer-grained versions of previously discovered MHSA behaviors like induction heads, successor heads and attention sink behavior (i.e., heavily attending to the first token). Lorsa and Sparse Autoencoder (SAE) are both sparse dictionary learning methods applied to different Transformer components, and lead to consistent findings in many ways. For instance, we discover a comprehensive family of arithmetic-specific Lorsa heads, each corresponding to an atomic operation in Llama-3.1-8B. Automated interpretability analysis indicates that Lorsa achieves parity with SAE in interpretability while Lorsa exhibits superior circuit discovery properties, especially for features computed collectively by multiple MHSA heads. We also conduct extensive experiments on architectural design ablation, Lorsa scaling law and error analysis.

In recent years, self-attention has become the dominant paradigm for sequence modeling in a variety of domains. However, in domains with very long sequence lengths the O(T^2) memory and O(T^2 H) compute costs can make using transformers infeasible. Motivated by problems in malware detection, where sequence lengths of T geq 100,000 are a roadblock to deep learning, we re-cast self-attention using the neuro-symbolic approach of Holographic Reduced Representations (HRR). In doing so we perform the same high-level strategy of the standard self-attention: a set of queries matching against a set of keys, and returning a weighted response of the values for each key. Implemented as a ``Hrrformer'' we obtain several benefits including O(T H log H) time complexity, O(T H) space complexity, and convergence in 10times fewer epochs. Nevertheless, the Hrrformer achieves near state-of-the-art accuracy on LRA benchmarks and we are able to learn with just a single layer. Combined, these benefits make our Hrrformer the first viable Transformer for such long malware classification sequences and up to 280times faster to train on the Long Range Arena benchmark. Code is available at https://github.com/NeuromorphicComputationResearchProgram/Hrrformer

We present a constraint-based algorithm for learning causal structures from observational time-series data, in the presence of latent confounders. We assume a discrete-time, stationary structural vector autoregressive process, with both temporal and contemporaneous causal relations. One may ask if temporal and contemporaneous relations should be treated differently. The presented algorithm gradually refines a causal graph by learning long-term temporal relations before short-term ones, where contemporaneous relations are learned last. This ordering of causal relations to be learnt leads to a reduction in the required number of statistical tests. We validate this reduction empirically and demonstrate that it leads to higher accuracy for synthetic data and more plausible causal graphs for real-world data compared to state-of-the-art algorithms.

We explore deep autoregressive Transformer models in language modeling for speech recognition. We focus on two aspects. First, we revisit Transformer model configurations specifically for language modeling. We show that well configured Transformer models outperform our baseline models based on the shallow stack of LSTM recurrent neural network layers. We carry out experiments on the open-source LibriSpeech 960hr task, for both 200K vocabulary word-level and 10K byte-pair encoding subword-level language modeling. We apply our word-level models to conventional hybrid speech recognition by lattice rescoring, and the subword-level models to attention based encoder-decoder models by shallow fusion. Second, we show that deep Transformer language models do not require positional encoding. The positional encoding is an essential augmentation for the self-attention mechanism which is invariant to sequence ordering. However, in autoregressive setup, as is the case for language modeling, the amount of information increases along the position dimension, which is a positional signal by its own. The analysis of attention weights shows that deep autoregressive self-attention models can automatically make use of such positional information. We find that removing the positional encoding even slightly improves the performance of these models.

Time series forecasting plays a crucial role in decision-making across various domains, but it presents significant challenges. Recent studies have explored image-driven approaches using computer vision models to address these challenges, often employing lineplots as the visual representation of time series data. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that uses time-frequency spectrograms as the visual representation of time series data. We introduce the use of a vision transformer for multimodal learning, showcasing the advantages of our approach across diverse datasets from different domains. To evaluate its effectiveness, we compare our method against statistical baselines (EMA and ARIMA), a state-of-the-art deep learning-based approach (DeepAR), other visual representations of time series data (lineplot images), and an ablation study on using only the time series as input. Our experiments demonstrate the benefits of utilizing spectrograms as a visual representation for time series data, along with the advantages of employing a vision transformer for simultaneous learning in both the time and frequency domains.

Recently, parallel text generation has received widespread attention due to its success in generation efficiency. Although many advanced techniques are proposed to improve its generation quality, they still need the help of an autoregressive model for training to overcome the one-to-many multi-modal phenomenon in the dataset, limiting their applications. In this paper, we propose latent-GLAT, which employs the discrete latent variables to capture word categorical information and invoke an advanced curriculum learning technique, alleviating the multi-modality problem. Experiment results show that our method outperforms strong baselines without the help of an autoregressive model, which further broadens the application scenarios of the parallel decoding paradigm.

Can a mere next-token predictor faithfully model human intelligence? We crystallize this intuitive concern, which is fragmented in the literature. As a starting point, we argue that the two often-conflated phases of next-token prediction -- autoregressive inference and teacher-forced training -- must be treated distinctly. The popular criticism that errors can compound during autoregressive inference, crucially assumes that teacher-forcing has learned an accurate next-token predictor. This assumption sidesteps a more deep-rooted problem we expose: in certain classes of tasks, teacher-forcing can simply fail to learn an accurate next-token predictor in the first place. We describe a general mechanism of how teacher-forcing can fail, and design a minimal planning task where both the Transformer and the Mamba architecture empirically fail in that manner -- remarkably, despite the task being straightforward to learn. We provide preliminary evidence that this failure can be resolved when training to predict multiple tokens in advance. We hope this finding can ground future debates and inspire explorations beyond the next-token prediction paradigm. We make our code available under https://github.com/gregorbachmann/Next-Token-Failures

As large language models (LMs) advance, there is an increasing need to control their outputs to align with human values (e.g., detoxification) or desired attributes (e.g., personalization, topic). However, autoregressive models focus on next-token predictions and struggle with global properties that require looking ahead. Existing solutions either tune or post-train LMs for each new attribute - expensive and inflexible - or approximate the Expected Attribute Probability (EAP) of future sequences by sampling or training, which is slow and unreliable for rare attributes. We introduce TRACE (Tractable Probabilistic Reasoning for Adaptable Controllable gEneration), a novel framework that efficiently computes EAP and adapts to new attributes through tractable probabilistic reasoning and lightweight control. TRACE distills a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) from an LM and pairs it with a small classifier to estimate attribute probabilities, enabling exact EAP computation over the HMM's predicted futures. This EAP is then used to reweigh the LM's next-token probabilities for globally compliant continuations. Empirically, TRACE achieves state-of-the-art results in detoxification with only 10% decoding overhead, adapts to 76 low-resource personalized LLMs within seconds, and seamlessly extends to composite attributes.

We propose a structural default model for portfolio-wide valuation adjustments (xVAs) and represent it as a system of coupled backward stochastic differential equations. The framework is divided into four layers, each capturing a key component: (i) clean values, (ii) initial margin and Collateral Valuation Adjustment (ColVA), (iii) Credit/Debit Valuation Adjustments (CVA/DVA) together with Margin Valuation Adjustment (MVA), and (iv) Funding Valuation Adjustment (FVA). Because these layers depend on one another through collateral and default effects, a naive Monte Carlo approach would require deeply nested simulations, making the problem computationally intractable. To address this challenge, we use an iterative deep BSDE approach, handling each layer sequentially so that earlier outputs serve as inputs to the subsequent layers. Initial margin is computed via deep quantile regression to reflect margin requirements over the Margin Period of Risk. We also adopt a change-of-measure method that highlights rare but significant defaults of the bank or counterparty, ensuring that these events are accurately captured in the training process. We further extend Han and Long's (2020) a posteriori error analysis to BSDEs on bounded domains. Due to the random exit from the domain, we obtain an order of convergence of O(h^{1/4-epsilon}) rather than the usual O(h^{1/2}). Numerical experiments illustrate that this method drastically reduces computational demands and successfully scales to high-dimensional, non-symmetric portfolios. The results confirm its effectiveness and accuracy, offering a practical alternative to nested Monte Carlo simulations in multi-counterparty xVA analyses.

This paper presents Diffusion via Autoregressive models (D-AR), a new paradigm recasting the image diffusion process as a vanilla autoregressive procedure in the standard next-token-prediction fashion. We start by designing the tokenizer that converts images into sequences of discrete tokens, where tokens in different positions can be decoded into different diffusion denoising steps in the pixel space. Thanks to the diffusion properties, these tokens naturally follow a coarse-to-fine order, which directly lends itself to autoregressive modeling. Therefore, we apply standard next-token prediction on these tokens, without modifying any underlying designs (either causal masks or training/inference strategies), and such sequential autoregressive token generation directly mirrors the diffusion procedure in image space. That is, once the autoregressive model generates an increment of tokens, we can directly decode these tokens into the corresponding diffusion denoising step in the streaming manner. Our pipeline naturally reveals several intriguing properties, for example, it supports consistent previews when generating only a subset of tokens and enables zero-shot layout-controlled synthesis. On the standard ImageNet benchmark, our method achieves 2.09 FID using a 775M Llama backbone with 256 discrete tokens. We hope our work can inspire future research on unified autoregressive architectures of visual synthesis, especially with large language models. Code and models will be available at https://github.com/showlab/D-AR

Despite the remarkable progress in synthetic aperture radar automatic target recognition (SAR ATR), recent efforts have concentrated on detecting and classifying a specific category, e.g., vehicles, ships, airplanes, or buildings. One of the fundamental limitations of the top-performing SAR ATR methods is that the learning paradigm is supervised, task-specific, limited-category, closed-world learning, which depends on massive amounts of accurately annotated samples that are expensively labeled by expert SAR analysts and have limited generalization capability and scalability. In this work, we make the first attempt towards building a foundation model for SAR ATR, termed SARATR-X. SARATR-X learns generalizable representations via self-supervised learning (SSL) and provides a cornerstone for label-efficient model adaptation to generic SAR target detection and classification tasks. Specifically, SARATR-X is trained on 0.18 M unlabelled SAR target samples, which are curated by combining contemporary benchmarks and constitute the largest publicly available dataset till now. Considering the characteristics of SAR images, a backbone tailored for SAR ATR is carefully designed, and a two-step SSL method endowed with multi-scale gradient features was applied to ensure the feature diversity and model scalability of SARATR-X. The capabilities of SARATR-X are evaluated on classification under few-shot and robustness settings and detection across various categories and scenes, and impressive performance is achieved, often competitive with or even superior to prior fully supervised, semi-supervised, or self-supervised algorithms. Our SARATR-X and the curated dataset are released at https://github.com/waterdisappear/SARATR-X to foster research into foundation models for SAR image interpretation.

Large Language Models (LLMs) based on the pre-trained fine-tuning paradigm have become pivotal in solving natural language processing tasks, consistently achieving state-of-the-art performance. Nevertheless, the theoretical understanding of how model complexity influences fine-tuning performance remains challenging and has not been well explored yet. In this paper, we focus on autoregressive LLMs and propose to employ Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to model them. Based on the HMM modeling, we investigate the relationship between model complexity and the generalization capability in downstream tasks. Specifically, we consider a popular tuning paradigm for downstream tasks, head tuning, where all pre-trained parameters are frozen and only individual heads are trained atop pre-trained LLMs. Our theoretical analysis reveals that the risk initially increases and then decreases with rising model complexity, showcasing a "double descent" phenomenon. In this case, the initial "descent" is degenerate, signifying that the "sweet spot" where bias and variance are balanced occurs when the model size is zero. Obtaining the presented in this study conclusion confronts several challenges, primarily revolving around effectively modeling autoregressive LLMs and downstream tasks, as well as conducting a comprehensive risk analysis for multivariate regression. Our research is substantiated by experiments conducted on data generated from HMMs, which provided empirical support and alignment with our theoretical insights.

Automatic medical report generation (MRG) is of great research value as it has the potential to relieve radiologists from the heavy burden of report writing. Despite recent advancements, accurate MRG remains challenging due to the need for precise clinical understanding and the identification of clinical findings. Moreover, the imbalanced distribution of diseases makes the challenge even more pronounced, as rare diseases are underrepresented in training data, making their diagnostic performance unreliable. To address these challenges, we propose diagnosis-driven prompts for medical report generation (PromptMRG), a novel framework that aims to improve the diagnostic accuracy of MRG with the guidance of diagnosis-aware prompts. Specifically, PromptMRG is based on encoder-decoder architecture with an extra disease classification branch. When generating reports, the diagnostic results from the classification branch are converted into token prompts to explicitly guide the generation process. To further improve the diagnostic accuracy, we design cross-modal feature enhancement, which retrieves similar reports from the database to assist the diagnosis of a query image by leveraging the knowledge from a pre-trained CLIP. Moreover, the disease imbalanced issue is addressed by applying an adaptive logit-adjusted loss to the classification branch based on the individual learning status of each disease, which overcomes the barrier of text decoder's inability to manipulate disease distributions. Experiments on two MRG benchmarks show the effectiveness of the proposed method, where it obtains state-of-the-art clinical efficacy performance on both datasets.

Non-autoregressive (nAR) models for machine translation (MT) manifest superior decoding speed when compared to autoregressive (AR) models, at the expense of impaired fluency of their outputs. We improve the fluency of a nAR model with connectionist temporal classification (CTC) by employing additional features in the scoring model used during beam search decoding. Since the beam search decoding in our model only requires to run the network in a single forward pass, the decoding speed is still notably higher than in standard AR models. We train models for three language pairs: German, Czech, and Romanian from and into English. The results show that our proposed models can be more efficient in terms of decoding speed and still achieve a competitive BLEU score relative to AR models.

We introduce MAGNeT, a masked generative sequence modeling method that operates directly over several streams of audio tokens. Unlike prior work, MAGNeT is comprised of a single-stage, non-autoregressive transformer. During training, we predict spans of masked tokens obtained from a masking scheduler, while during inference we gradually construct the output sequence using several decoding steps. To further enhance the quality of the generated audio, we introduce a novel rescoring method in which, we leverage an external pre-trained model to rescore and rank predictions from MAGNeT, which will be then used for later decoding steps. Lastly, we explore a hybrid version of MAGNeT, in which we fuse between autoregressive and non-autoregressive models to generate the first few seconds in an autoregressive manner while the rest of the sequence is being decoded in parallel. We demonstrate the efficiency of MAGNeT for the task of text-to-music and text-to-audio generation and conduct an extensive empirical evaluation, considering both objective metrics and human studies. The proposed approach is comparable to the evaluated baselines, while being significantly faster (x7 faster than the autoregressive baseline). Through ablation studies and analysis, we shed light on the importance of each of the components comprising MAGNeT, together with pointing to the trade-offs between autoregressive and non-autoregressive modeling, considering latency, throughput, and generation quality. Samples are available on our demo page https://pages.cs.huji.ac.il/adiyoss-lab/MAGNeT.

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) stands as an indispensable sensor for Earth observation, owing to its unique capability for all-day imaging. Nevertheless, in a data-driven era, the scarcity of large-scale datasets poses a significant bottleneck to advancing SAR automatic target recognition (ATR) technology. This paper introduces NUDT4MSTAR, a large-scale SAR dataset for vehicle target recognition in the wild, including 40 target types and a wide array of imaging conditions across 5 different scenes. NUDT4MSTAR represents a significant leap forward in dataset scale, containing over 190,000 images-tenfold the size of its predecessors. To enhance the utility of this dataset, we meticulously annotate each image with detailed target information and imaging conditions. We also provide data in both processed magnitude images and original complex formats. Then, we construct a comprehensive benchmark consisting of 7 experiments with 15 recognition methods focusing on the stable and effective ATR issues. Besides, we conduct transfer learning experiments utilizing various models trained on NUDT4MSTAR and applied to three other target datasets, thereby demonstrating its substantial potential to the broader field of ground objects ATR. Finally, we discuss this dataset's application value and ATR's significant challenges. To the best of our knowledge, this work marks the first-ever endeavor to create a large-scale dataset benchmark for fine-grained SAR recognition in the wild, featuring an extensive collection of exhaustively annotated vehicle images. We expect that the open source of NUDT4MSTAR will facilitate the development of SAR ATR and attract a wider community of researchers.

Machine learning (ML) holds great potential for accurately forecasting treatment outcomes over time, which could ultimately enable the adoption of more individualized treatment strategies in many practical applications. However, a significant challenge that has been largely overlooked by the ML literature on this topic is the presence of informative sampling in observational data. When instances are observed irregularly over time, sampling times are typically not random, but rather informative -- depending on the instance's characteristics, past outcomes, and administered treatments. In this work, we formalize informative sampling as a covariate shift problem and show that it can prohibit accurate estimation of treatment outcomes if not properly accounted for. To overcome this challenge, we present a general framework for learning treatment outcomes in the presence of informative sampling using inverse intensity-weighting, and propose a novel method, TESAR-CDE, that instantiates this framework using Neural CDEs. Using a simulation environment based on a clinical use case, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in learning under informative sampling.

Vision Transformers (ViTs) have attracted a lot of popularity in recent years, due to their exceptional capabilities in modeling long-range spatial dependencies and scalability for large scale training. Although the training parallelism of self-attention mechanism plays an important role in retaining great performance, its quadratic complexity baffles the application of ViTs in many scenarios which demand fast inference. This effect is even more pronounced in applications in which autoregressive modeling of input features is required. In Natural Language Processing (NLP), a new stream of efforts have proposed parallelizable models with recurrent formulation that allows for efficient inference in generative applications. Inspired by this trend, we propose a new class of computer vision models, dubbed Vision Retention Networks (ViR), with dual parallel and recurrent formulations, which strike an optimal balance between fast inference and parallel training with competitive performance. In particular, ViR scales favorably for image throughput and memory consumption in tasks that require higher-resolution images due to its flexible formulation in processing large sequence lengths. The ViR is the first attempt to realize dual parallel and recurrent equivalency in a general vision backbone for recognition tasks. We have validated the effectiveness of ViR through extensive experiments with different dataset sizes and various image resolutions and achieved competitive performance. Our code and pretrained models will be made publicly available.

We present TraDE, a self-attention-based architecture for auto-regressive density estimation with continuous and discrete valued data. Our model is trained using a penalized maximum likelihood objective, which ensures that samples from the density estimate resemble the training data distribution. The use of self-attention means that the model need not retain conditional sufficient statistics during the auto-regressive process beyond what is needed for each covariate. On standard tabular and image data benchmarks, TraDE produces significantly better density estimates than existing approaches such as normalizing flow estimators and recurrent auto-regressive models. However log-likelihood on held-out data only partially reflects how useful these estimates are in real-world applications. In order to systematically evaluate density estimators, we present a suite of tasks such as regression using generated samples, out-of-distribution detection, and robustness to noise in the training data and demonstrate that TraDE works well in these scenarios.

Medical imaging plays a crucial role in diagnosis, with radiology reports serving as vital documentation. Automating report generation has emerged as a critical need to alleviate the workload of radiologists. While machine learning has facilitated report generation for 2D medical imaging, extending this to 3D has been unexplored due to computational complexity and data scarcity. We introduce the first method to generate radiology reports for 3D medical imaging, specifically targeting chest CT volumes. Given the absence of comparable methods, we establish a baseline using an advanced 3D vision encoder in medical imaging to demonstrate our method's effectiveness, which leverages a novel auto-regressive causal transformer. Furthermore, recognizing the benefits of leveraging information from previous visits, we augment CT2Rep with a cross-attention-based multi-modal fusion module and hierarchical memory, enabling the incorporation of longitudinal multimodal data. Access our code at https://github.com/ibrahimethemhamamci/CT2Rep

Advanced autoregressive models have reshaped multimodal AI. However, their transformative potential in medical imaging remains largely untapped due to the absence of a unified visual tokenizer -- one capable of capturing fine-grained visual structures for faithful image reconstruction and realistic image synthesis, as well as rich semantics for accurate diagnosis and image interpretation. To this end, we present MedITok, the first unified tokenizer tailored for medical images, encoding both low-level structural details and high-level clinical semantics within a unified latent space. To balance these competing objectives, we introduce a novel two-stage training framework: a visual representation alignment stage that cold-starts the tokenizer reconstruction learning with a visual semantic constraint, followed by a textual semantic representation alignment stage that infuses detailed clinical semantics into the latent space. Trained on the meticulously collected large-scale dataset with over 30 million medical images and 2 million image-caption pairs, MedITok achieves state-of-the-art performance on more than 30 datasets across 9 imaging modalities and 4 different tasks. By providing a unified token space for autoregressive modeling, MedITok supports a wide range of tasks in clinical diagnostics and generative healthcare applications. Model and code will be made publicly available at: https://github.com/Masaaki-75/meditok.

Sequential recommendation aims to estimate the dynamic user preferences and sequential dependencies among historical user behaviors. Although Transformer-based models have proven to be effective for sequential recommendation, they suffer from the inference inefficiency problem stemming from the quadratic computational complexity of attention operators, especially for long behavior sequences. Inspired by the recent success of state space models (SSMs), we propose Mamba4Rec, which is the first work to explore the potential of selective SSMs for efficient sequential recommendation. Built upon the basic Mamba block which is a selective SSM with an efficient hardware-aware parallel algorithm, we design a series of sequential modeling techniques to further promote model performance while maintaining inference efficiency. Through experiments on public datasets, we demonstrate how Mamba4Rec effectively tackles the effectiveness-efficiency dilemma, outperforming both RNN- and attention-based baselines in terms of both effectiveness and efficiency. The code is available at https://github.com/chengkai-liu/Mamba4Rec.

A key challenge of modern machine learning systems is to achieve Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization -- generalizing to target data whose distribution differs from that of source data. Despite its significant importance, the fundamental question of ``what are the most effective algorithms for OOD generalization'' remains open even under the standard setting of covariate shift. This paper addresses this fundamental question by proving that, surprisingly, classical Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) purely using source data (without any modification) achieves the minimax optimality for covariate shift under the well-specified setting. That is, no algorithm performs better than MLE in this setting (up to a constant factor), justifying MLE is all you need. Our result holds for a very rich class of parametric models, and does not require any boundedness condition on the density ratio. We illustrate the wide applicability of our framework by instantiating it to three concrete examples -- linear regression, logistic regression, and phase retrieval. This paper further complement the study by proving that, under the misspecified setting, MLE is no longer the optimal choice, whereas Maximum Weighted Likelihood Estimator (MWLE) emerges as minimax optimal in certain scenarios.

Autoregressive models have shown remarkable success in image generation by adapting sequential prediction techniques from language modeling. However, applying these approaches to images requires discretizing continuous pixel data through vector quantization methods like VQ-VAE. To alleviate the quantization errors that existed in VQ-VAE, recent works tend to use larger codebooks. However, this will accordingly expand vocabulary size, complicating the autoregressive modeling task. This paper aims to find a way to enjoy the benefits of large codebooks without making autoregressive modeling more difficult. Through empirical investigation, we discover that tokens with similar codeword representations produce similar effects on the final generated image, revealing significant redundancy in large codebooks. Based on this insight, we propose to predict tokens from coarse to fine (CTF), realized by assigning the same coarse label for similar tokens. Our framework consists of two stages: (1) an autoregressive model that sequentially predicts coarse labels for each token in the sequence, and (2) an auxiliary model that simultaneously predicts fine-grained labels for all tokens conditioned on their coarse labels. Experiments on ImageNet demonstrate our method's superior performance, achieving an average improvement of 59 points in Inception Score compared to baselines. Notably, despite adding an inference step, our approach achieves faster sampling speeds.

We completely discard the conventional spatial prior in image representation and introduce a novel discrete visual tokenizer: Self-consistency Tokenizer (Selftok). At its design core, we compose an autoregressive (AR) prior -- mirroring the causal structure of language -- into visual tokens by using the reverse diffusion process of image generation. The AR property makes Selftok fundamentally distinct from traditional spatial tokens in the following two key ways: - Selftok offers an elegant and minimalist approach to unify diffusion and AR for vision-language models (VLMs): By representing images with Selftok tokens, we can train a VLM using a purely discrete autoregressive architecture -- like that in LLMs -- without requiring additional modules or training objectives. - We theoretically show that the AR prior satisfies the Bellman equation, whereas the spatial prior does not. Therefore, Selftok supports reinforcement learning (RL) for visual generation with effectiveness comparable to that achieved in LLMs. Besides the AR property, Selftok is also a SoTA tokenizer that achieves a favorable trade-off between high-quality reconstruction and compression rate. We use Selftok to build a pure AR VLM for both visual comprehension and generation tasks. Impressively, without using any text-image training pairs, a simple policy gradient RL working in the visual tokens can significantly boost the visual generation benchmark, surpassing all the existing models by a large margin. Therefore, we believe that Selftok effectively addresses the long-standing challenge that visual tokens cannot support effective RL. When combined with the well-established strengths of RL in LLMs, this brings us one step closer to realizing a truly multimodal LLM. Project Page: https://selftok-team.github.io/report/.

Multi-task learning (MTL) has shown considerable practical benefits, particularly when using pre-trained language models (PLMs). While this is commonly achieved by simultaneously learning n tasks under a joint optimization procedure, recent methods such as AdapterFusion structure the problem into two distinct stages: (i) task learning, where knowledge specific to a task is encapsulated within sets of parameters (\eg adapters), and (ii) transfer, where this already learned knowledge is leveraged for a target task. This separation of concerns provides numerous benefits, such as promoting reusability, and addressing cases involving data privacy and societal concerns; on the flip side, current two-stage MTL methods come with the cost of introducing a substantial number of additional parameters. In this work, we address this issue by leveraging the usefulness of linearly scaling the output representations of source adapters for transfer learning. We introduce ScaLearn, a simple and highly parameter-efficient two-stage MTL method that capitalizes on the knowledge of the source tasks by learning a minimal set of scaling parameters that enable effective knowledge transfer to a target task. Our experiments on three benchmarks (GLUE, SuperGLUE, and HumSet) show that our ScaLearn, in addition to facilitating the benefits of two-stage MTL, consistently outperforms strong baselines with only a small number of transfer parameters - roughly 0.35% of those of AdapterFusion. Remarkably, we observe that ScaLearn maintains its strong abilities even when further reducing parameters through uniform scaling and layer-sharing, achieving similarly competitive results with only 8 transfer parameters for each target task. Our proposed approach thus demonstrates the power of simple scaling as a promise for more efficient task transfer.

Multi-task learning (MTL) aims to empower a model to tackle multiple tasks simultaneously. A recent development known as task arithmetic has revealed that several models, each fine-tuned for distinct tasks, can be directly merged into a single model to execute MTL without necessitating a retraining process using the initial training data. Nevertheless, this direct addition of models often leads to a significant deterioration in the overall performance of the merged model. This decline occurs due to potential conflicts and intricate correlations among the multiple tasks. Consequently, the challenge emerges of how to merge pre-trained models more effectively without using their original training data. This paper introduces an innovative technique called Adaptive Model Merging (AdaMerging). This approach aims to autonomously learn the coefficients for model merging, either in a task-wise or layer-wise manner, without relying on the original training data. Specifically, our AdaMerging method operates as an automatic, unsupervised task arithmetic scheme. It leverages entropy minimization on unlabeled test samples from the multi-task setup as a surrogate objective function to iteratively refine the merging coefficients of the multiple models. Our experimental findings across eight tasks demonstrate the efficacy of the AdaMerging scheme we put forth. Compared to the current state-of-the-art task arithmetic merging scheme, AdaMerging showcases a remarkable 11\% improvement in performance. Notably, AdaMerging also exhibits superior generalization capabilities when applied to unseen downstream tasks. Furthermore, it displays a significantly enhanced robustness to data distribution shifts that may occur during the testing phase.

As the Chinese stock market continues to evolve and its market structure grows increasingly complex, traditional quantitative trading methods are facing escalating challenges. Particularly, due to policy uncertainty and the frequent market fluctuations triggered by sudden economic events, existing models often struggle to accurately predict market dynamics. To address these challenges, this paper introduces Stockformer, a price-volume factor stock selection model that integrates wavelet transformation and a multitask self-attention network, aimed at enhancing responsiveness and predictive accuracy regarding market instabilities. Through discrete wavelet transform, Stockformer decomposes stock returns into high and low frequencies, meticulously capturing long-term market trends and short-term fluctuations, including abrupt events. Moreover, the model incorporates a Dual-Frequency Spatiotemporal Encoder and graph embedding techniques to effectively capture complex temporal and spatial relationships among stocks. Employing a multitask learning strategy, it simultaneously predicts stock returns and directional trends. Experimental results show that Stockformer outperforms existing advanced methods on multiple real stock market datasets. In strategy backtesting, Stockformer consistently demonstrates exceptional stability and reliability across market conditions-whether rising, falling, or fluctuating-particularly maintaining high performance during downturns or volatile periods, indicating a high adaptability to market fluctuations. To foster innovation and collaboration in the financial analysis sector, the Stockformer model's code has been open-sourced and is available on the GitHub repository: https://github.com/Eric991005/Multitask-Stockformer.

In recent years, multimodal benchmarks for general domains have guided the rapid development of multimodal models on general tasks. However, the financial field has its peculiarities. It features unique graphical images (e.g., candlestick charts, technical indicator charts) and possesses a wealth of specialized financial knowledge (e.g., futures, turnover rate). Therefore, benchmarks from general fields often fail to measure the performance of multimodal models in the financial domain, and thus cannot effectively guide the rapid development of large financial models. To promote the development of large financial multimodal models, we propose MME-Finance, an bilingual open-ended and practical usage-oriented Visual Question Answering (VQA) benchmark. The characteristics of our benchmark are finance and expertise, which include constructing charts that reflect the actual usage needs of users (e.g., computer screenshots and mobile photography), creating questions according to the preferences in financial domain inquiries, and annotating questions by experts with 10+ years of experience in the financial industry. Additionally, we have developed a custom-designed financial evaluation system in which visual information is first introduced in the multi-modal evaluation process. Extensive experimental evaluations of 19 mainstream MLLMs are conducted to test their perception, reasoning, and cognition capabilities. The results indicate that models performing well on general benchmarks cannot do well on MME-Finance; for instance, the top-performing open-source and closed-source models obtain 65.69 (Qwen2VL-72B) and 63.18 (GPT-4o), respectively. Their performance is particularly poor in categories most relevant to finance, such as candlestick charts and technical indicator charts. In addition, we propose a Chinese version, which helps compare performance of MLLMs under a Chinese context.

Unifying visual understanding and generation within a single multimodal framework remains a significant challenge, as the two inherently heterogeneous tasks require representations at different levels of granularity. Current approaches that utilize vector quantization (VQ) or variational autoencoders (VAE) for unified visual representation prioritize intrinsic imagery features over semantics, compromising understanding performance. In this work, we take inspiration from masked image modelling (MIM) that learns rich semantics via a mask-and-reconstruct pre-training and its successful extension to masked autoregressive (MAR) image generation. A preliminary study on the MAR encoder's representation reveals exceptional linear probing accuracy and precise feature response to visual concepts, which indicates MAR's potential for visual understanding tasks beyond its original generation role. Based on these insights, we present Harmon, a unified autoregressive framework that harmonizes understanding and generation tasks with a shared MAR encoder. Through a three-stage training procedure that progressively optimizes understanding and generation capabilities, Harmon achieves state-of-the-art image generation results on the GenEval, MJHQ30K and WISE benchmarks while matching the performance of methods with dedicated semantic encoders (e.g., Janus) on image understanding benchmarks. Our code and models will be available at https://github.com/wusize/Harmon.

Deep models have demonstrated remarkable performance in time series forecasting. However, due to the partially-observed nature of real-world applications, solely focusing on the target of interest, so-called endogenous variables, is usually insufficient to guarantee accurate forecasting. Notably, a system is often recorded into multiple variables, where the exogenous variables can provide valuable external information for endogenous variables. Thus, unlike well-established multivariate or univariate forecasting paradigms that either treat all the variables equally or ignore exogenous information, this paper focuses on a more practical setting: time series forecasting with exogenous variables. We propose a novel approach, TimeXer, to ingest external information to enhance the forecasting of endogenous variables. With deftly designed embedding layers, TimeXer empowers the canonical Transformer with the ability to reconcile endogenous and exogenous information, where patch-wise self-attention and variate-wise cross-attention are used simultaneously. Moreover, global endogenous tokens are learned to effectively bridge the causal information underlying exogenous series into endogenous temporal patches. Experimentally, TimeXer achieves consistent state-of-the-art performance on twelve real-world forecasting benchmarks and exhibits notable generality and scalability. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/TimeXer.

Can meta-learning discover generic ways of processing time series (TS) from a diverse dataset so as to greatly improve generalization on new TS coming from different datasets? This work provides positive evidence to this using a broad meta-learning framework which we show subsumes many existing meta-learning algorithms. Our theoretical analysis suggests that residual connections act as a meta-learning adaptation mechanism, generating a subset of task-specific parameters based on a given TS input, thus gradually expanding the expressive power of the architecture on-the-fly. The same mechanism is shown via linearization analysis to have the interpretation of a sequential update of the final linear layer. Our empirical results on a wide range of data emphasize the importance of the identified meta-learning mechanisms for successful zero-shot univariate forecasting, suggesting that it is viable to train a neural network on a source TS dataset and deploy it on a different target TS dataset without retraining, resulting in performance that is at least as good as that of state-of-practice univariate forecasting models.

We present Timer-XL, a generative Transformer for unified time series forecasting. To uniformly predict 1D and 2D time series, we generalize next token prediction, predominantly adopted for causal generation of 1D sequences, to multivariate next token prediction. The proposed paradigm uniformly formulates various forecasting scenarios as a long-context generation problem. We opt for the generative Transformer, which can capture global-range and causal dependencies while providing contextual flexibility, to implement unified forecasting on univariate series characterized by non-stationarity, multivariate time series with complicated dynamics and correlations, and covariate-informed contexts that include both endogenous and exogenous variables. Technically, we propose a universal TimeAttention to facilitate generative Transformers on time series, which can effectively capture fine-grained intra- and inter-series dependencies of flattened time series tokens (patches) and is further strengthened by position embeddings in both temporal and variable dimensions. Timer-XL achieves state-of-the-art performance across challenging forecasting benchmarks through a unified approach. As a large time series model, it demonstrates notable model transferability by large-scale pre-training, as well as contextual flexibility in token lengths, positioning it as a one-for-all forecaster.

Efficiently capturing the long-range patterns in sequential data sources salient to a given task -- such as classification and generative modeling -- poses a fundamental challenge. Popular approaches in the space tradeoff between the memory burden of brute-force enumeration and comparison, as in transformers, the computational burden of complicated sequential dependencies, as in recurrent neural networks, or the parameter burden of convolutional networks with many or large filters. We instead take inspiration from wavelet-based multiresolution analysis to define a new building block for sequence modeling, which we call a MultiresLayer. The key component of our model is the multiresolution convolution, capturing multiscale trends in the input sequence. Our MultiresConv can be implemented with shared filters across a dilated causal convolution tree. Thus it garners the computational advantages of convolutional networks and the principled theoretical motivation of wavelet decompositions. Our MultiresLayer is straightforward to implement, requires significantly fewer parameters, and maintains at most a O(Nlog N) memory footprint for a length N sequence. Yet, by stacking such layers, our model yields state-of-the-art performance on a number of sequence classification and autoregressive density estimation tasks using CIFAR-10, ListOps, and PTB-XL datasets.

In this study, we introduce a novel platform Resource-Aware AutoML (RA-AutoML) which enables flexible and generalized algorithms to build machine learning models subjected to multiple objectives, as well as resource and hard-ware constraints. RA-AutoML intelligently conducts Hyper-Parameter Search(HPS) as well as Neural Architecture Search (NAS) to build models optimizing predefined objectives. RA-AutoML is a versatile framework that allows user to prescribe many resource/hardware constraints along with objectives demanded by the problem at hand or business requirements. At its core, RA-AutoML relies on our in-house search-engine algorithm,MOBOGA, which combines a modified constraint-aware Bayesian Optimization and Genetic Algorithm to construct Pareto optimal candidates. Our experiments on CIFAR-10 dataset shows very good accuracy compared to results obtained by state-of-art neural network models, while subjected to resource constraints in the form of model size.

Missing values, irregularly collected samples, and multi-resolution signals commonly occur in multivariate time series data, making predictive tasks difficult. These challenges are especially prevalent in the healthcare domain, where patients' vital signs and electronic records are collected at different frequencies and have occasionally missing information due to the imperfections in equipment or patient circumstances. Researchers have handled each of these issues differently, often handling missing data through mean value imputation and then using sequence models over the multivariate signals while ignoring the different resolution of signals. We propose a unified model named Multi-resolution Flexible Irregular Time series Network (Multi-FIT). The building block for Multi-FIT is the FIT network. The FIT network creates an informative dense representation at each time step using signal information such as last observed value, time difference since the last observed time stamp and overall mean for the signal. Vertical FIT (FIT-V) is a variant of FIT which also models the relationship between different temporal signals while creating the informative dense representations for the signal. The multi-FIT model uses multiple FIT networks for sets of signals with different resolutions, further facilitating the construction of flexible representations. Our model has three main contributions: a.) it does not impute values but rather creates informative representations to provide flexibility to the model for creating task-specific representations b.) it models the relationship between different signals in the form of support signals c.) it models different resolutions in parallel before merging them for the final prediction task. The FIT, FIT-V and Multi-FIT networks improve upon the state-of-the-art models for three predictive tasks, including the forecasting of patient survival.

Speculative decoding has been widely used to accelerate autoregressive (AR) text generation. However, its effectiveness in visual AR models remains limited due to token selection ambiguity, where multiple tokens receive similarly low probabilities, reducing acceptance rates. While dynamic tree drafting has been proposed to improve speculative decoding, we show that it fails to mitigate token selection ambiguity, resulting in shallow draft trees and suboptimal acceleration. To address this, we introduce LANTERN++, a novel framework that integrates static tree drafting with a relaxed acceptance condition, allowing drafts to be selected independently of low-confidence predictions. This enables deeper accepted sequences, improving decoding efficiency while preserving image quality. Extensive experiments on state-of-the-art visual AR models demonstrate that LANTERN++ significantly accelerates inference, achieving up to times 2.56 speedup over standard AR decoding while maintaining high image quality.

In multi-agent reinforcement learning, the behaviors that agents learn in a single Markov Game (MG) are typically confined to the given agent number. Every single MG induced by varying the population may possess distinct optimal joint strategies and game-specific knowledge, which are modeled independently in modern multi-agent reinforcement learning algorithms. In this work, our focus is on creating agents that can generalize across population-varying MGs. Instead of learning a unimodal policy, each agent learns a policy set comprising effective strategies across a variety of games. To achieve this, we propose Meta Representations for Agents (MRA) that explicitly models the game-common and game-specific strategic knowledge. By representing the policy sets with multi-modal latent policies, the game-common strategic knowledge and diverse strategic modes are discovered through an iterative optimization procedure. We prove that by approximately maximizing the resulting constrained mutual information objective, the policies can reach Nash Equilibrium in every evaluation MG when the latent space is sufficiently large. When deploying MRA in practical settings with limited latent space sizes, fast adaptation can be achieved by leveraging the first-order gradient information. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of MRA in improving training performance and generalization ability in challenging evaluation games.

Time series clustering promises to uncover hidden structural patterns in data with applications across healthcare, finance, industrial systems, and other critical domains. However, without validated ground truth information, researchers cannot objectively assess clustering quality or determine whether poor results stem from absent structures in the data, algorithmic limitations, or inappropriate validation methods, raising the question whether clustering is "more art than science" (Guyon et al., 2009). To address these challenges, we introduce CSTS (Correlation Structures in Time Series), a synthetic benchmark for evaluating the discovery of correlation structures in multivariate time series data. CSTS provides a clean benchmark that enables researchers to isolate and identify specific causes of clustering failures by differentiating between correlation structure deterioration and limitations of clustering algorithms and validation methods. Our contributions are: (1) a comprehensive benchmark for correlation structure discovery with distinct correlation structures, systematically varied data conditions, established performance thresholds, and recommended evaluation protocols; (2) empirical validation of correlation structure preservation showing moderate distortion from downsampling and minimal effects from distribution shifts and sparsification; and (3) an extensible data generation framework enabling structure-first clustering evaluation. A case study demonstrates CSTS's practical utility by identifying an algorithm's previously undocumented sensitivity to non-normal distributions, illustrating how the benchmark enables precise diagnosis of methodological limitations. CSTS advances rigorous evaluation standards for correlation-based time series clustering.

Next-Token Prediction (NTP) is a de facto approach for autoregressive (AR) video generation, but it suffers from suboptimal unidirectional dependencies and slow inference speed. In this work, we propose a semi-autoregressive (semi-AR) framework, called Next-Block Prediction (NBP), for video generation. By uniformly decomposing video content into equal-sized blocks (e.g., rows or frames), we shift the generation unit from individual tokens to blocks, allowing each token in the current block to simultaneously predict the corresponding token in the next block. Unlike traditional AR modeling, our framework employs bidirectional attention within each block, enabling tokens to capture more robust spatial dependencies. By predicting multiple tokens in parallel, NBP models significantly reduce the number of generation steps, leading to faster and more efficient inference. Our model achieves FVD scores of 103.3 on UCF101 and 25.5 on K600, outperforming the vanilla NTP model by an average of 4.4. Furthermore, thanks to the reduced number of inference steps, the NBP model generates 8.89 frames (128x128 resolution) per second, achieving an 11x speedup. We also explored model scales ranging from 700M to 3B parameters, observing significant improvements in generation quality, with FVD scores dropping from 103.3 to 55.3 on UCF101 and from 25.5 to 19.5 on K600, demonstrating the scalability of our approach.