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Jun 20

On the Limitations of Compute Thresholds as a Governance Strategy

At face value, this essay is about understanding a fairly esoteric governance tool called compute thresholds. However, in order to grapple with whether these thresholds will achieve anything, we must first understand how they came to be. This requires engaging with a decades-old debate at the heart of computer science progress, namely, is bigger always better? Hence, this essay may be of interest not only to policymakers and the wider public but also to computer scientists interested in understanding the role of compute in unlocking breakthroughs. Does a certain inflection point of compute result in changes to the risk profile of a model? This discussion is increasingly urgent given the wide adoption of governance approaches that suggest greater compute equates with higher propensity for harm. Several leading frontier AI companies have released responsible scaling policies. Both the White House Executive Orders on AI Safety (EO) and the EU AI Act encode the use of FLOP or floating-point operations as a way to identify more powerful systems. What is striking about the choice of compute thresholds to-date is that no models currently deployed in the wild fulfill the current criteria set by the EO. This implies that the emphasis is often not on auditing the risks and harms incurred by currently deployed models - but rather is based upon the belief that future levels of compute will introduce unforeseen new risks. A key conclusion of this essay is that compute thresholds as currently implemented are shortsighted and likely to fail to mitigate risk. Governance that is overly reliant on compute fails to understand that the relationship between compute and risk is highly uncertain and rapidly changing. It also overestimates our ability to predict what abilities emerge at different scales. This essay ends with recommendations for a better way forward.

Governance of the AI, by the AI, and for the AI

Over the past half century, there have been several false dawns during which the "arrival" of world-changing artificial intelligence (AI) has been heralded. Tempting fate, the authors believe the age of AI has, indeed, finally arrived. Powerful image generators, such as DALL-E2 and Midjourney have suddenly allowed anyone with access the ability easily to create rich and complex art. In a similar vein, text generators, such as GPT3.5 (including ChatGPT) and BLOOM, allow users to compose detailed written descriptions of many topics of interest. And, it is even possible now for a person without extensive expertise in writing software to use AI to generate code capable of myriad applications. While AI will continue to evolve and improve, probably at a rapid rate, the current state of AI is already ushering in profound changes to many different sectors of society. Every new technology challenges the ability of humanity to govern it wisely. However, governance is usually viewed as both possible and necessary due to the disruption new technology often poses to social structures, industries, the environment, and other important human concerns. In this article, we offer an analysis of a range of interactions between AI and governance, with the hope that wise decisions may be made that maximize benefits and minimize costs. The article addresses two main aspects of this relationship: the governance of AI by humanity, and the governance of humanity by AI. The approach we have taken is itself informed by AI, as this article was written collaboratively by the authors and ChatGPT.

Computing Power and the Governance of Artificial Intelligence

Computing power, or "compute," is crucial for the development and deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities. As a result, governments and companies have started to leverage compute as a means to govern AI. For example, governments are investing in domestic compute capacity, controlling the flow of compute to competing countries, and subsidizing compute access to certain sectors. However, these efforts only scratch the surface of how compute can be used to govern AI development and deployment. Relative to other key inputs to AI (data and algorithms), AI-relevant compute is a particularly effective point of intervention: it is detectable, excludable, and quantifiable, and is produced via an extremely concentrated supply chain. These characteristics, alongside the singular importance of compute for cutting-edge AI models, suggest that governing compute can contribute to achieving common policy objectives, such as ensuring the safety and beneficial use of AI. More precisely, policymakers could use compute to facilitate regulatory visibility of AI, allocate resources to promote beneficial outcomes, and enforce restrictions against irresponsible or malicious AI development and usage. However, while compute-based policies and technologies have the potential to assist in these areas, there is significant variation in their readiness for implementation. Some ideas are currently being piloted, while others are hindered by the need for fundamental research. Furthermore, naive or poorly scoped approaches to compute governance carry significant risks in areas like privacy, economic impacts, and centralization of power. We end by suggesting guardrails to minimize these risks from compute governance.

Truthful AI: Developing and governing AI that does not lie

In many contexts, lying -- the use of verbal falsehoods to deceive -- is harmful. While lying has traditionally been a human affair, AI systems that make sophisticated verbal statements are becoming increasingly prevalent. This raises the question of how we should limit the harm caused by AI "lies" (i.e. falsehoods that are actively selected for). Human truthfulness is governed by social norms and by laws (against defamation, perjury, and fraud). Differences between AI and humans present an opportunity to have more precise standards of truthfulness for AI, and to have these standards rise over time. This could provide significant benefits to public epistemics and the economy, and mitigate risks of worst-case AI futures. Establishing norms or laws of AI truthfulness will require significant work to: (1) identify clear truthfulness standards; (2) create institutions that can judge adherence to those standards; and (3) develop AI systems that are robustly truthful. Our initial proposals for these areas include: (1) a standard of avoiding "negligent falsehoods" (a generalisation of lies that is easier to assess); (2) institutions to evaluate AI systems before and after real-world deployment; and (3) explicitly training AI systems to be truthful via curated datasets and human interaction. A concerning possibility is that evaluation mechanisms for eventual truthfulness standards could be captured by political interests, leading to harmful censorship and propaganda. Avoiding this might take careful attention. And since the scale of AI speech acts might grow dramatically over the coming decades, early truthfulness standards might be particularly important because of the precedents they set.

Coherent Structures Governing Transport at Turbulent Interfaces

In an experiment on a turbulent jet, we detect interfacial turbulent layers in a frame that moves, on average, along with the \tnti. This significantly prolongs the observation time of scalar and velocity structures and enables the measurement of two types of Lagrangian coherent structures. One structure, the finite-time Lyapunov field (FTLE), quantifies advective transport barriers of fluid parcels while the other structure highlights barriers of diffusive momentum transport. These two complementary structures depend on large-scale and small-scale motion and are therefore associated with the growth of the turbulent region through engulfment or nibbling, respectively. We detect the \tnti\ from cluster analysis, where we divide the measured scalar field into four clusters. Not only the \tnti\ can be found this way, but also the next, internal, turbulent-turbulent interface. Conditional averages show that these interfaces are correlated with barriers of advective and diffusive transport when the Lagrangian integration time is smaller than the integral time scale. Diffusive structures decorrelate faster since they have a smaller timescale. Conditional averages of these structures at internal turbulent-turbulent interfaces show the same pattern with a more pronounced jump at the interface indicative of a shear layer. This is quite an unexpected outcome, as the internal interface is now defined not by the presence or absence of vorticity, but by conditional vorticity corresponding to two uniform concentration zones. The long-time diffusive momentum flux along Lagrangian paths represents the growth of the turbulent flow into the irrotational domain, a direct demonstration of nibbling. The diffusive flux parallel to the \tnti\ appears to be concentrated in a diffusive superlayer whose width is comparable with the Taylor microscale, which is relatively invariant in time.

Neural Production Systems: Learning Rule-Governed Visual Dynamics

Visual environments are structured, consisting of distinct objects or entities. These entities have properties -- both visible and latent -- that determine the manner in which they interact with one another. To partition images into entities, deep-learning researchers have proposed structural inductive biases such as slot-based architectures. To model interactions among entities, equivariant graph neural nets (GNNs) are used, but these are not particularly well suited to the task for two reasons. First, GNNs do not predispose interactions to be sparse, as relationships among independent entities are likely to be. Second, GNNs do not factorize knowledge about interactions in an entity-conditional manner. As an alternative, we take inspiration from cognitive science and resurrect a classic approach, production systems, which consist of a set of rule templates that are applied by binding placeholder variables in the rules to specific entities. Rules are scored on their match to entities, and the best fitting rules are applied to update entity properties. In a series of experiments, we demonstrate that this architecture achieves a flexible, dynamic flow of control and serves to factorize entity-specific and rule-based information. This disentangling of knowledge achieves robust future-state prediction in rich visual environments, outperforming state-of-the-art methods using GNNs, and allows for the extrapolation from simple (few object) environments to more complex environments.

PITCH: AI-assisted Tagging of Deepfake Audio Calls using Challenge-Response

The rise of AI voice-cloning technology, particularly audio Real-time Deepfakes (RTDFs), has intensified social engineering attacks by enabling real-time voice impersonation that bypasses conventional enrollment-based authentication. To address this, we propose PITCH, a robust challenge-response method to detect and tag interactive deepfake audio calls. We developed a comprehensive taxonomy of audio challenges based on the human auditory system, linguistics, and environmental factors, yielding 20 prospective challenges. These were tested against leading voice-cloning systems using a novel dataset comprising 18,600 original and 1.6 million deepfake samples from 100 users. PITCH's prospective challenges enhanced machine detection capabilities to 88.7% AUROC score on the full unbalanced dataset, enabling us to shortlist 10 functional challenges that balance security and usability. For human evaluation and subsequent analyses, we filtered a challenging, balanced subset. On this subset, human evaluators independently scored 72.6% accuracy, while machines achieved 87.7%. Acknowledging that call environments require higher human control, we aided call receivers in making decisions with them using machines. Our solution uses an early warning system to tag suspicious incoming calls as "Deepfake-likely." Contrary to prior findings, we discovered that integrating human intuition with machine precision offers complementary advantages. Our solution gave users maximum control and boosted detection accuracy to 84.5%. Evidenced by this jump in accuracy, PITCH demonstrated the potential for AI-assisted pre-screening in call verification processes, offering an adaptable and usable approach to combat real-time voice-cloning attacks. Code to reproduce and access data at https://github.com/mittalgovind/PITCH-Deepfakes.

Cosmological Distance Measurement of 12 Nearby Supernovae IIP with ROTSE-IIIB

We present cosmological analysis of 12 nearby (z<0.06) Type IIP supernovae (SNe IIP) observed with the ROTSE-IIIb telescope. To achieve precise photometry, we present a new image differencing technique that is implemented for the first time on the ROTSE SN photometry pipeline. With this method, we find up to a 20\% increase in the detection efficiency and significant reduction in residual RMS scatter of the SN lightcurves when compared to the previous pipeline performance. We use the published optical spectra and broadband photometry of well studied SNe IIP to establish temporal models for ejecta velocity and photospheric temperature evolution for our SNe IIP population. This study yields measurements that are competitive to other methods even when the data are limited to a single epoch during the photospheric phase of SNe IIP. Using the fully reduced ROTSE photometry and optical spectra, we apply these models to the respective photometric epochs for each SN in the ROTSE IIP sample. This facilitates the use of the Expanding Photosphere Method (EPM) to obtain distance estimates to their respective host galaxies. We then perform cosmological parameter fitting using these EPM distances from which we measure the Hubble constant to be 72.9^{+5.7}_{-4.3}~{rm kms^{-1}~Mpc^{-1}}, which is consistent with the standard Lambda CDM model values derived using other independent techniques.

Modeling Inter-Dependence Between Time and Mark in Multivariate Temporal Point Processes

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) are probabilistic generative frameworks. They model discrete event sequences localized in continuous time. Generally, real-life events reveal descriptive information, known as marks. Marked TPPs model time and marks of the event together for practical relevance. Conditioned on past events, marked TPPs aim to learn the joint distribution of the time and the mark of the next event. For simplicity, conditionally independent TPP models assume time and marks are independent given event history. They factorize the conditional joint distribution of time and mark into the product of individual conditional distributions. This structural limitation in the design of TPP models hurt the predictive performance on entangled time and mark interactions. In this work, we model the conditional inter-dependence of time and mark to overcome the limitations of conditionally independent models. We construct a multivariate TPP conditioning the time distribution on the current event mark in addition to past events. Besides the conventional intensity-based models for conditional joint distribution, we also draw on flexible intensity-free TPP models from the literature. The proposed TPP models outperform conditionally independent and dependent models in standard prediction tasks. Our experimentation on various datasets with multiple evaluation metrics highlights the merit of the proposed approach.

Mirostat: A Neural Text Decoding Algorithm that Directly Controls Perplexity

Neural text decoding is important for generating high-quality texts using language models. To generate high-quality text, popular decoding algorithms like top-k, top-p (nucleus), and temperature-based sampling truncate or distort the unreliable low probability tail of the language model. Though these methods generate high-quality text after parameter tuning, they are ad hoc. Not much is known about the control they provide over the statistics of the output, which is important since recent reports show text quality is highest for a specific range of likelihoods. Here, first we provide a theoretical analysis of perplexity in top-k, top-p, and temperature sampling, finding that cross-entropy behaves approximately linearly as a function of p in top-p sampling whereas it is a nonlinear function of k in top-k sampling, under Zipfian statistics. We use this analysis to design a feedback-based adaptive top-k text decoding algorithm called mirostat that generates text (of any length) with a predetermined value of perplexity, and thereby high-quality text without any tuning. Experiments show that for low values of k and p in top-k and top-p sampling, perplexity drops significantly with generated text length, which is also correlated with excessive repetitions in the text (the boredom trap). On the other hand, for large values of k and p, we find that perplexity increases with generated text length, which is correlated with incoherence in the text (confusion trap). Mirostat avoids both traps: experiments show that cross-entropy has a near-linear relation with repetition in generated text. This relation is almost independent of the sampling method but slightly dependent on the model used. Hence, for a given language model, control over perplexity also gives control over repetitions. Experiments with human raters for fluency, coherence, and quality further verify our findings.

Large Language Models Often Know When They Are Being Evaluated

If AI models can detect when they are being evaluated, the effectiveness of evaluations might be compromised. For example, models could have systematically different behavior during evaluations, leading to less reliable benchmarks for deployment and governance decisions. We investigate whether frontier language models can accurately classify transcripts based on whether they originate from evaluations or real-world deployment, a capability we call evaluation awareness. To achieve this, we construct a diverse benchmark of 1,000 prompts and transcripts from 61 distinct datasets. These span public benchmarks (e.g., MMLU, SWEBench), real-world deployment interactions, and agent trajectories from scaffolding frameworks (e.g., web-browsing agents). Frontier models clearly demonstrate above-random evaluation awareness (Gemini-2.5-Pro reaches an AUC of 0.83), but do not yet surpass our simple human baseline (AUC of 0.92). Furthermore, both AI models and humans are better at identifying evaluations in agentic settings compared to chat settings. Additionally, we test whether models can identify the purpose of the evaluation. Under multiple-choice and open-ended questioning, AI models far outperform random chance in identifying what an evaluation is testing for. Our results indicate that frontier models already exhibit a substantial, though not yet superhuman, level of evaluation-awareness. We recommend tracking this capability in future models.

UAV-VLN: End-to-End Vision Language guided Navigation for UAVs

A core challenge in AI-guided autonomy is enabling agents to navigate realistically and effectively in previously unseen environments based on natural language commands. We propose UAV-VLN, a novel end-to-end Vision-Language Navigation (VLN) framework for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) that seamlessly integrates Large Language Models (LLMs) with visual perception to facilitate human-interactive navigation. Our system interprets free-form natural language instructions, grounds them into visual observations, and plans feasible aerial trajectories in diverse environments. UAV-VLN leverages the common-sense reasoning capabilities of LLMs to parse high-level semantic goals, while a vision model detects and localizes semantically relevant objects in the environment. By fusing these modalities, the UAV can reason about spatial relationships, disambiguate references in human instructions, and plan context-aware behaviors with minimal task-specific supervision. To ensure robust and interpretable decision-making, the framework includes a cross-modal grounding mechanism that aligns linguistic intent with visual context. We evaluate UAV-VLN across diverse indoor and outdoor navigation scenarios, demonstrating its ability to generalize to novel instructions and environments with minimal task-specific training. Our results show significant improvements in instruction-following accuracy and trajectory efficiency, highlighting the potential of LLM-driven vision-language interfaces for safe, intuitive, and generalizable UAV autonomy.

SELECT: A Large-Scale Benchmark of Data Curation Strategies for Image Classification

Data curation is the problem of how to collect and organize samples into a dataset that supports efficient learning. Despite the centrality of the task, little work has been devoted towards a large-scale, systematic comparison of various curation methods. In this work, we take steps towards a formal evaluation of data curation strategies and introduce SELECT, the first large-scale benchmark of curation strategies for image classification. In order to generate baseline methods for the SELECT benchmark, we create a new dataset, ImageNet++, which constitutes the largest superset of ImageNet-1K to date. Our dataset extends ImageNet with 5 new training-data shifts, each approximately the size of ImageNet-1K itself, and each assembled using a distinct curation strategy. We evaluate our data curation baselines in two ways: (i) using each training-data shift to train identical image classification models from scratch (ii) using the data itself to fit a pretrained self-supervised representation. Our findings show interesting trends, particularly pertaining to recent methods for data curation such as synthetic data generation and lookup based on CLIP embeddings. We show that although these strategies are highly competitive for certain tasks, the curation strategy used to assemble the original ImageNet-1K dataset remains the gold standard. We anticipate that our benchmark can illuminate the path for new methods to further reduce the gap. We release our checkpoints, code, documentation, and a link to our dataset at https://github.com/jimmyxu123/SELECT.

RidgeBase: A Cross-Sensor Multi-Finger Contactless Fingerprint Dataset

Contactless fingerprint matching using smartphone cameras can alleviate major challenges of traditional fingerprint systems including hygienic acquisition, portability and presentation attacks. However, development of practical and robust contactless fingerprint matching techniques is constrained by the limited availability of large scale real-world datasets. To motivate further advances in contactless fingerprint matching across sensors, we introduce the RidgeBase benchmark dataset. RidgeBase consists of more than 15,000 contactless and contact-based fingerprint image pairs acquired from 88 individuals under different background and lighting conditions using two smartphone cameras and one flatbed contact sensor. Unlike existing datasets, RidgeBase is designed to promote research under different matching scenarios that include Single Finger Matching and Multi-Finger Matching for both contactless- to-contactless (CL2CL) and contact-to-contactless (C2CL) verification and identification. Furthermore, due to the high intra-sample variance in contactless fingerprints belonging to the same finger, we propose a set-based matching protocol inspired by the advances in facial recognition datasets. This protocol is specifically designed for pragmatic contactless fingerprint matching that can account for variances in focus, polarity and finger-angles. We report qualitative and quantitative baseline results for different protocols using a COTS fingerprint matcher (Verifinger) and a Deep CNN based approach on the RidgeBase dataset. The dataset can be downloaded here: https://www.buffalo.edu/cubs/research/datasets/ridgebase-benchmark-dataset.html

DeepPeep: Exploiting Design Ramifications to Decipher the Architecture of Compact DNNs

The remarkable predictive performance of deep neural networks (DNNs) has led to their adoption in service domains of unprecedented scale and scope. However, the widespread adoption and growing commercialization of DNNs have underscored the importance of intellectual property (IP) protection. Devising techniques to ensure IP protection has become necessary due to the increasing trend of outsourcing the DNN computations on the untrusted accelerators in cloud-based services. The design methodologies and hyper-parameters of DNNs are crucial information, and leaking them may cause massive economic loss to the organization. Furthermore, the knowledge of DNN's architecture can increase the success probability of an adversarial attack where an adversary perturbs the inputs and alter the prediction. In this work, we devise a two-stage attack methodology "DeepPeep" which exploits the distinctive characteristics of design methodologies to reverse-engineer the architecture of building blocks in compact DNNs. We show the efficacy of "DeepPeep" on P100 and P4000 GPUs. Additionally, we propose intelligent design maneuvering strategies for thwarting IP theft through the DeepPeep attack and proposed "Secure MobileNet-V1". Interestingly, compared to vanilla MobileNet-V1, secure MobileNet-V1 provides a significant reduction in inference latency (approx60%) and improvement in predictive performance (approx2%) with very-low memory and computation overheads.

Cosmos-Reason1: From Physical Common Sense To Embodied Reasoning

Physical AI systems need to perceive, understand, and perform complex actions in the physical world. In this paper, we present the Cosmos-Reason1 models that can understand the physical world and generate appropriate embodied decisions (e.g., next step action) in natural language through long chain-of-thought reasoning processes. We begin by defining key capabilities for Physical AI reasoning, with a focus on physical common sense and embodied reasoning. To represent physical common sense, we use a hierarchical ontology that captures fundamental knowledge about space, time, and physics. For embodied reasoning, we rely on a two-dimensional ontology that generalizes across different physical embodiments. Building on these capabilities, we develop two multimodal large language models, Cosmos-Reason1-8B and Cosmos-Reason1-56B. We curate data and train our models in four stages: vision pre-training, general supervised fine-tuning (SFT), Physical AI SFT, and Physical AI reinforcement learning (RL) as the post-training. To evaluate our models, we build comprehensive benchmarks for physical common sense and embodied reasoning according to our ontologies. Evaluation results show that Physical AI SFT and reinforcement learning bring significant improvements. To facilitate the development of Physical AI, we will make our code and pre-trained models available under the NVIDIA Open Model License at https://github.com/nvidia-cosmos/cosmos-reason1.

Aya Vision: Advancing the Frontier of Multilingual Multimodality

Building multimodal language models is fundamentally challenging: it requires aligning vision and language modalities, curating high-quality instruction data, and avoiding the degradation of existing text-only capabilities once vision is introduced. These difficulties are further magnified in the multilingual setting, where the need for multimodal data in different languages exacerbates existing data scarcity, machine translation often distorts meaning, and catastrophic forgetting is more pronounced. To address the aforementioned challenges, we introduce novel techniques spanning both data and modeling. First, we develop a synthetic annotation framework that curates high-quality, diverse multilingual multimodal instruction data, enabling Aya Vision models to produce natural, human-preferred responses to multimodal inputs across many languages. Complementing this, we propose a cross-modal model merging technique that mitigates catastrophic forgetting, effectively preserving text-only capabilities while simultaneously enhancing multimodal generative performance. Aya-Vision-8B achieves best-in-class performance compared to strong multimodal models such as Qwen-2.5-VL-7B, Pixtral-12B, and even much larger Llama-3.2-90B-Vision. We further scale this approach with Aya-Vision-32B, which outperforms models more than twice its size, such as Molmo-72B and LLaMA-3.2-90B-Vision. Our work advances multilingual progress on the multi-modal frontier, and provides insights into techniques that effectively bend the need for compute while delivering extremely high performance.

ASVspoof 2019: A large-scale public database of synthesized, converted and replayed speech

Automatic speaker verification (ASV) is one of the most natural and convenient means of biometric person recognition. Unfortunately, just like all other biometric systems, ASV is vulnerable to spoofing, also referred to as "presentation attacks." These vulnerabilities are generally unacceptable and call for spoofing countermeasures or "presentation attack detection" systems. In addition to impersonation, ASV systems are vulnerable to replay, speech synthesis, and voice conversion attacks. The ASVspoof 2019 edition is the first to consider all three spoofing attack types within a single challenge. While they originate from the same source database and same underlying protocol, they are explored in two specific use case scenarios. Spoofing attacks within a logical access (LA) scenario are generated with the latest speech synthesis and voice conversion technologies, including state-of-the-art neural acoustic and waveform model techniques. Replay spoofing attacks within a physical access (PA) scenario are generated through carefully controlled simulations that support much more revealing analysis than possible previously. Also new to the 2019 edition is the use of the tandem detection cost function metric, which reflects the impact of spoofing and countermeasures on the reliability of a fixed ASV system. This paper describes the database design, protocol, spoofing attack implementations, and baseline ASV and countermeasure results. It also describes a human assessment on spoofed data in logical access. It was demonstrated that the spoofing data in the ASVspoof 2019 database have varied degrees of perceived quality and similarity to the target speakers, including spoofed data that cannot be differentiated from bona-fide utterances even by human subjects.

BASIR: Budget-Assisted Sectoral Impact Ranking -- A Dataset for Sector Identification and Performance Prediction Using Language Models

Government fiscal policies, particularly annual union budgets, exert significant influence on financial markets. However, real-time analysis of budgetary impacts on sector-specific equity performance remains methodologically challenging and largely unexplored. This study proposes a framework to systematically identify and rank sectors poised to benefit from India's Union Budget announcements. The framework addresses two core tasks: (1) multi-label classification of excerpts from budget transcripts into 81 predefined economic sectors, and (2) performance ranking of these sectors. Leveraging a comprehensive corpus of Indian Union Budget transcripts from 1947 to 2025, we introduce BASIR (Budget-Assisted Sectoral Impact Ranking), an annotated dataset mapping excerpts from budgetary transcripts to sectoral impacts. Our architecture incorporates fine-tuned embeddings for sector identification, coupled with language models that rank sectors based on their predicted performances. Our results demonstrate 0.605 F1-score in sector classification, and 0.997 NDCG score in predicting ranks of sectors based on post-budget performances. The methodology enables investors and policymakers to quantify fiscal policy impacts through structured, data-driven insights, addressing critical gaps in manual analysis. The annotated dataset has been released under CC-BY-NC-SA-4.0 license to advance computational economics research.

AIR-Bench 2024: A Safety Benchmark Based on Risk Categories from Regulations and Policies

Foundation models (FMs) provide societal benefits but also amplify risks. Governments, companies, and researchers have proposed regulatory frameworks, acceptable use policies, and safety benchmarks in response. However, existing public benchmarks often define safety categories based on previous literature, intuitions, or common sense, leading to disjointed sets of categories for risks specified in recent regulations and policies, which makes it challenging to evaluate and compare FMs across these benchmarks. To bridge this gap, we introduce AIR-Bench 2024, the first AI safety benchmark aligned with emerging government regulations and company policies, following the regulation-based safety categories grounded in our AI risks study, AIR 2024. AIR 2024 decomposes 8 government regulations and 16 company policies into a four-tiered safety taxonomy with 314 granular risk categories in the lowest tier. AIR-Bench 2024 contains 5,694 diverse prompts spanning these categories, with manual curation and human auditing to ensure quality. We evaluate leading language models on AIR-Bench 2024, uncovering insights into their alignment with specified safety concerns. By bridging the gap between public benchmarks and practical AI risks, AIR-Bench 2024 provides a foundation for assessing model safety across jurisdictions, fostering the development of safer and more responsible AI systems.

Escalation Risks from Language Models in Military and Diplomatic Decision-Making

Governments are increasingly considering integrating autonomous AI agents in high-stakes military and foreign-policy decision-making, especially with the emergence of advanced generative AI models like GPT-4. Our work aims to scrutinize the behavior of multiple AI agents in simulated wargames, specifically focusing on their predilection to take escalatory actions that may exacerbate multilateral conflicts. Drawing on political science and international relations literature about escalation dynamics, we design a novel wargame simulation and scoring framework to assess the escalation risks of actions taken by these agents in different scenarios. Contrary to prior studies, our research provides both qualitative and quantitative insights and focuses on large language models (LLMs). We find that all five studied off-the-shelf LLMs show forms of escalation and difficult-to-predict escalation patterns. We observe that models tend to develop arms-race dynamics, leading to greater conflict, and in rare cases, even to the deployment of nuclear weapons. Qualitatively, we also collect the models' reported reasonings for chosen actions and observe worrying justifications based on deterrence and first-strike tactics. Given the high stakes of military and foreign-policy contexts, we recommend further examination and cautious consideration before deploying autonomous language model agents for strategic military or diplomatic decision-making.

Mitigating the quantum hype

We are in the midst of quantum hype with some excessive claims of quantum computing potential, many vendors' and even some research organizations' exaggerations, and a funding frenzy for very low technology readiness level startups. Governments are contributing to this hype with their large quantum initiatives and their technology sovereignty aspirations. Technology hypes are not bad per se since they create emulation, drive innovations and also contribute to attracting new talents. It works as scientists and vendors deliver progress and innovation on a continuous basis after a so-called peak of expectations. It fails with exaggerated overpromises and underdeliveries that last too long. It could cut short research and innovation funding, creating some sort of quantum winter. After looking at the shape and form of technology and science hypes and driving some lessons from past hypes, we investigate the current quantum hype and its specifics. We find that, although there is some significant uncertainty on the potential to create real scalable quantum computers, the scientific and vendor fields are relatively sane and solid compared to other technology hypes. The vendors hype has some profound and disruptive impact on the organization of fundamental research. Also, quantum technologies comprise other fields like quantum telecommunications and quantum sensing with a higher technology readiness level, which are less prone to hype. We then make some proposals to mitigate the potential negative effects of the current quantum hype including recommendations on scientific communication to strengthen the trust in quantum science, vendor behavior improvements, benchmarking methodologies, public education and putting in place a responsible research and innovation approach.

Blockchain-Based Federated Learning: Incentivizing Data Sharing and Penalizing Dishonest Behavior

With the increasing importance of data sharing for collaboration and innovation, it is becoming more important to ensure that data is managed and shared in a secure and trustworthy manner. Data governance is a common approach to managing data, but it faces many challenges such as data silos, data consistency, privacy, security, and access control. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a comprehensive framework that integrates data trust in federated learning with InterPlanetary File System, blockchain, and smart contracts to facilitate secure and mutually beneficial data sharing while providing incentives, access control mechanisms, and penalizing any dishonest behavior. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model is effective in improving the accuracy of federated learning models while ensuring the security and fairness of the data-sharing process. The research paper also presents a decentralized federated learning platform that successfully trained a CNN model on the MNIST dataset using blockchain technology. The platform enables multiple workers to train the model simultaneously while maintaining data privacy and security. The decentralized architecture and use of blockchain technology allow for efficient communication and coordination between workers. This platform has the potential to facilitate decentralized machine learning and support privacy-preserving collaboration in various domains.

Cooperate or Collapse: Emergence of Sustainable Cooperation in a Society of LLM Agents

As AI systems pervade human life, ensuring that large language models (LLMs) make safe decisions remains a significant challenge. We introduce the Governance of the Commons Simulation (GovSim), a generative simulation platform designed to study strategic interactions and cooperative decision-making in LLMs. In GovSim, a society of AI agents must collectively balance exploiting a common resource with sustaining it for future use. This environment enables the study of how ethical considerations, strategic planning, and negotiation skills impact cooperative outcomes. We develop an LLM-based agent architecture and test it with the leading open and closed LLMs. We find that all but the most powerful LLM agents fail to achieve a sustainable equilibrium in GovSim, with the highest survival rate below 54%. Ablations reveal that successful multi-agent communication between agents is critical for achieving cooperation in these cases. Furthermore, our analyses show that the failure to achieve sustainable cooperation in most LLMs stems from their inability to formulate and analyze hypotheses about the long-term effects of their actions on the equilibrium of the group. Finally, we show that agents that leverage "Universalization"-based reasoning, a theory of moral thinking, are able to achieve significantly better sustainability. Taken together, GovSim enables us to study the mechanisms that underlie sustainable self-government with specificity and scale. We open source the full suite of our research results, including the simulation environment, agent prompts, and a comprehensive web interface.