marcus hutter jdykjnglapjsgmxnet hi rich et al 1 think philosophically useful picture universe something happens 4dimensional spacetime universe like archived movie roll rather life performance perspective compelling 3d slice ut universe time completely determine slice uteps time teps contrary case apart anthropic arguments quite puzzling ut constraints uteps much question determinism versus true probabilities 4d picture somewhat simplified whether universe finite information content deterministic infinite information content nondeterministic ie possibly necessarily probabilistic instance observation sequence 010101010101 constant information hence deterministic sequence n random observations say n fair quantum coins flips shorter description sequence hence information content n notion martinloef randomness allows talk whether single sequence random 2 classical probability theory allow indeed provides sound interpretation probabilities naively probability event e p lim_nook_nen k_ne number occurrences event e first n iid trials problem limit may anything even exist eg fair coin give head head head head ie p1 course sequence unlikely fair coin p12 high probability explain high probability means circularity actually way near exact circularity reduced meaning probability meaning high probability infinite sequences corresponds probability 1 one could interpret mathematical statement event happens probability 1 event happens sure universe thats complement cournots principle event singled advance probability zero happen 3 third interpretation probabilities betting ratios leads us necessarily back subjective probabilities 1 possibly 2 seem good philosophical accounts objectivephysical probabilities allow repeat argument physical probabilities 4 would appreciate discussion argument belief truly random universe unscientific independent whether actually true argument claim process random means claiming observation perfectly predicted claiming something principally predictedexplained unscientific statement cheers marcus ______________________ marcus hutter assoc prof rsise room b259 building 115 australian national university corner north daley road canberra act 0200 australia phone 6102 612 51605 fax 6102 612 58651 email jdykjnglapjsanueduau httprsiseanueduaumarcus feel free 10 gb mailbox 100 freesmsmonat jetzt gmx topmail testen httpwwwgmxnetdegotopmail thu 07 aug 2008 112559 0200 uai determinism verses chance