kathryn blackmond laskey voqydpjgmuedu marcus et al 1 think philosophically useful picture universe something happens 4dimensional spacetime universe like archived movie roll rather life performance exactly useful satisfying happens 2 classical probability theory allow indeed provides sound interpretation probabilities roger naively probability event e p lim_nook_nen k_ne number occurrences event e first n iid trials problem limit may anything even exist eg fair coin give head head head head ie p1 course sequence unlikely fair coin p12 high probability explain high probability means circularity actually way near exact circularity reduced meaning probability meaning high probability infinite sequences corresponds probability 1 one could interpret mathematical statement event happens probability 1 event happens sure universe thats complement cournots principle event singled advance probability zero happen 3 third interpretation probabilities betting ratios leads us necessarily back subjective probabilities subjective beliefs probabilistic sequence events receive outcome feedback believe probability 1 p lim_nook_nen believe thing subsequence events picked advance events dont iid ks_nse number occurrences e first ns trials fall given preselected subsequence ps average probabilities assigned events subsequence believe probability 1 ps lim_nsooks_nsen words bayesian believes probability 1 limiting frequencies preselected subsequence receives outcome feedback converge stable limit match hisher limiting average probabilities subsequence led back subjective probabilities leads us full circle back limiting frequencies 4 would appreciate discussion argument belief truly random universe unscientific independent whether actually true argument claim process random means claiming observation perfectly predicted claiming something principally predictedexplained unscientific statement think unscientific absolutely sure every process perfectly predictedexplained scientist open mind possibility hisher pet theory may wrong scientist willing overturned empirical data dyed wool subjective bayesian never assigns probability zero physically possible event truly believes hisher subjective probability assessments never convinced amount evidence model wrong matter disconfirming observations simply think seen incredibly unusual sequence kathy thu 07 aug 2008 052559 0400 uai determinism verses chance