mitola iii joseph opfulwamitreorg professor halpern im concerned structural model building appropriately suggest something like weather reporting easy get first second order equations right results given case depend strongly initial conditions turn critical features occur fine scale wait computing improve 1000x able predict weather well today eg predict hurricane tracks good still perfect note suggests interdisciplinary research address zadehs examples methods way validated social systems professor zadehs examples entail social systems unlike weather many parameters seem unmeasurable matter fine grid depending inscrutable ways internal psychological processes decision makers eg buying public stock market person extreme stress zadehs clever progression although one retrospectively model phenomena perspective pearls superb mathematical treatment questions observability underlying phenomena seem limit ones ability validate models could used describe also predict engineering predictions least stability versus likely instability sufficiently decisionmaking insights fortune telling social trajectories asimovs foundation withstanding first thing learned random processes johns hopkins probability space must built measurable space least sigmaalgebra defined human psyche may described ways random space far havent seen problem measure aggregation measures sigmaalgebra defined psyche decision support one attributes value game positions doesnt include probability player kick board losses big isnt funny irrelevant really may missing aspect mathematical causality regular lack measurability professor zadehs examples thus lack validated sigma algebra arithmetic 1k easy validate model real world human aspects eg voter fraud harder sociological psychological basis critical 1k meaningful mathematical statistics random process models work well automatic control isolate aircraft meaningfully rest world except air flowing define measurable space air pressure pistons valves electronics thus define fixed point corresponding level flight write algorithms sustain fixed point validated way social sciences like business law dont seem basic measurability basic algebra measures validate agree thus practicality using insights pearls book seems hard come maybe impossible near mid term wonder topic might good realm interdisciplinary research tries quantify significant aspects least sociology psychology causality business law solid ground anecdotal evidence trying build models decision support maybe drawing sociology computer science together seems needed waves twenty year centers met people 50s 60s lived ai hype 80s seems necessary somehow joe dr joseph mitola iii consulting scientist mitre corporation tampa fl 7033145709 views necessarily mitre corporation sponsors original message nhipljlbixengrorstedu mailtonhipljlbixengrorstedu behalf joseph halpern sent friday july 14 2006 1130 faqengrorstedu cc gzrdaeecsberkeleyedu subject uai causality responded privately lotfi regarding causality questions asked post response mailing list somewhat edited version response lotfi hi lotfi problems handled approach howver answer depends model detail 1 manufacturer raincoats would like increase sales end increased advertising budget 20 six moths later sales went 10 increase sales caused increase advertising budget degree according definitions judea pearl give whether increase sales caused increase advertising budget depends structural model english description give enough details strutural model answer question course variable affects sales advertising budget answer yes otherwise answer depends variables else happened call context paper similarly dgree increase cause depends structural model according definition hana chockler gave degree cause 1k1 k smallest number things changed order make increase advertising critical critical advertising would result incrase advertising results increase note answer questions structural model example wins election 65 every voter voted cause victory one degree responsibility 1 wins 110 voter still cause victory one degree responsibiltiy 16 since change 5 votesmaking vote 65before someones vote critical 2 listening business news stock market sharp drop analysts cite primary reason drop 2 increase unemployment b 3 dollar barrel increase price oil degrees b cause sharp drop cant answer question framework without structural model equations straightforward 3 shot killed b based information concluded caused bs death additional information hired c kill b c wanted b killed b raped murdered cs tenyear old daughter kill b borrowed gun suspected sure gun would used kill someone degrees death b caused b c problem concepts causality responsibility closely linked answer others obvious causal model would say c cause death degree responsibility 1 assuming wouldnt able kill b hadnt loaned gun c wouldnt able hire someone else structural equations make clear whether assumptions true theyre gain questions causality degree responsibility depends alternatives would captured structural model hope clarifies things little regards joe thu 07 aug 2008 034119 0400 uai structural models necessary may impossible validate