power plant supply demand outlook based ge turbine order bac klog electrical equipment analyst ssb electrical equipment analyst power supply demand outlook jeff sprague ssb electrical equipment analyst interesting perspective supply demand balance power forecast based ge order book turbines think excellent source info jeff points orders canceled far although slight differences estimations new plant builds higher reserve margin higher think info supports view margin new plant builds exceed demand reduce tightness market measured reserve margins think downward pressure power prices spark spreads environment also attached jeff comments sent clients vis vis electrical equipment sector ge particular well recent pc 6 report reference questions please call ray jeff sprague 212 816 6699 comments ge stock weak recent days concerns lower power prices hurt utility stocks raised fear power capacity overbuilt ultimately enough capacity deployed us believe yet based analysis ge delivery plans us reach 14 reserve margin based capability summer peak load 2002 expect industry ever return 20 reserve margins yesteryear 14 seems far excessive given severe shortcomings electrical grid see 6 4 report grid ge output 03 flat 02 reserve margins would rise still reasonable 16 ge filled 90 95 backlog 2003 experienced cancellations push outs orders date bottom line believe sell ge overdone publish detailed report supply demand equation u power market coming days please see attached spreadsheet detailed analysis raymond c niles power natural gas research salomon smith barney 212 816 2807 ray niles ssmb com pc 6 final pdf sprague supply demand client xls