competitive analysis update 24 us response terrorism updates afghanistan campaign key issues energy financial markets phase two campaign federal reserve activity nuclear plant security rj special forces low intensity campaign underway sources agree u military operation afghanistan begun indications special forces activity strongly signaled taliban forces shot u unmanned aerial vehicle uav monday uav shot predator range less 400 miles suggesting u special forces closing afghanistan special forces units concentrating intelligence gathering targeting key bin ladin installations well attempting locate bin ladin defense secretary donald rumsfeld noted yesterday day afghanistan campaign least initially like desert storm cnn cameras baghdad hotels offered real time imagery u air strikes first phases war fought largely secret punctuated intermittently little coverage media provide action phase one includes night raids lot small scale special operations reconnaissance necessary direct contact raids large military strike using airpower also forthcoming unlikely reported real time operational security tight defense secretary donald rumsfeld said u military officials refuse comment anything endanger troops operations anyone talk breaking federal criminal law jail rumsfeld said asked would lie press disguise u military operations rumsfeld said never say never next phases u campaign important markets us military action limited afghanistan immediate spike oil prices unlikely endure limited attack directly impact oil supply however us officials said war terrorism go far beyond afghanistan markets continue exhibit degree uncertainty developments take place short term oil supplies would directly affected strikes iraq spike might short lived opec enough spare capacity cover iraqi outage medium term oil markets might express fears regional stability middle east persian gulf regions result us military strikes possible subsequent terrorist attacks expected iraqi biological chemical weaponry receive considerable attention days ahead widely reported split bush administration whether include iraq iraqi weapons mass destruction capability likely complicate rollover un oil food program december could lead iraqis removing oil market independently happening afghanistan another key issue whether expected refugee crisis rising islamic radicalism destabilize nuclear armed pakistani government saudis showing increased cooperation oil policy military planning brief furor saudi government announced u would able expand operations prince sultan airbase near riyahd us saudi cooperation improved public announcement airbase prohibition pr move saudis head domestic accusations handing blank checks usa centcom subsequently transferred ops command saudi arabia addition saudis responded u pressure officially severing relations taliban vienna indications saudis working toward opec agreement keep market well supplied oil take advantage political uncertainty affecting crude markets cutting production likely outcome opec officially hold production current levels agree limited cheating ensure adequate supply another possibility opec lower target range opec basket price would take lower demand forecasts account either step would allow opec preserve cohesion time political economic uncertainty prices continue rapid decline vienna meeting washington riyadh might come politically correct way spin output reduction blaming market volatility speculators rather opec cartel likely reconvene early november reassess market conditions fed shifts model adapt new economic reality fed still struggling answers recent events economy clear three elements model fundamentally changed 1 important significant drop aspects individuals companies risk tolerance must reversed quickly fed done bit stabilizing financial system congress stepping total stimulus package 100 150 billion greenspan supports 100 bln diplomatic military side balanced multilateral approach administration together discreet pressure opec reduce prices designed stabilize expectations boost sentiment 2 rates fed expected keep cutting disappoint market sources report greenspan actually quite comfortable using liquidity alter actual fed funds rather changing official rates however fed governors increasingly convinced sentiment really depends military success even aware running ammunition rate cutting side 3 despite greenspan protests looking fiscal boost push budget least 1 gdp deficit nuclear plants increased security scrutiny washington based nuclear control institute los angeles based committee bridge gap urged government immediately station 30 40 national guard troops around nuclear plants protect attacks watchdog groups also said government prepared deploy anti aircraft weapons shoot attack planes another needed measure carefully check background nuclear plant employees contractors prevent internal sabotage