california update 9 4 2001 executive summary several procedural scenarios might play regarding edison mou snapshot analysis political dynamics affect outcome procedural scenarios assembly assembly appropriations committee plan take sb 78 xx today likely pro forma hearing moving bill forward full assembly party line vote controversial land easements amendments removed friday draft bill rumored amendments may returned weekend problematic shaver lake provisions removed bill assembly members may hear much vocal public opposition constituents rejecting bill although consumer groups opposed trying generate grass roots opposition shaver lake amendments remain several central valley legislators may oppose plan committee assembly speaker bob hertzberg supports edison deal business community supports recent amendments likely mitigates concerns pro business democrats without shaver lake provisions hertzberg get least 41 democratic members probably 2 republicans vote aye bill hertzberg enough votes spare caucus needs 41 votes bill pass 50 democrats caucus vote close personal plea governor enable get 41 senate bill would next move senate approval assembly amendments prognosticating gets difficult senate president pro tem john burton said support amendments sb 78 xx gov davis speaker hertzberg likely meet several times burton try cut deal relations davis burton currently frayed due variety factors burton one back position unless something change position would lead one four scenarios burton refuses bill heard senate edison mou bill approved sept 15 th burton agrees let bill heard despite opposition option unlikely burton comes deal davis hertzberg brings bill passed assembly vote full senate support burton comes deal davis hertzberg part deal insists changes bill thereby sending back assembly amendments another vote assembly vote senate john burton considered one smartest certainly cleverest politician california state government today problematic guess next move additionally external factors play determination options result instance governor may willing cut deal burton unrelated issue burton cares resolving way e g workers compensation benefits drug courts reapportionment foretelling happen senate extremely difficult davis hertzberg try cut deal given burton past actions may string along holding several days maybe even sept 14 th agrees anything governor assuming bill escapes senate deals may need cut get enough votes governor almost certainly sign regardless edison public position bill go effect 90 days governor signs consumer groups vowed undo edison bailout enacted law way ballot box could either 1 initiative pass another bill overturning sb 78 xx replacing provisions 2 referendum repeal sb 78 xx making bill never passed initiative drafted submitted attorney general takes 15 days receive official title summary another 25 days ag determines fiscal estimate necessary either 15 40 days attorney general sends proponents senate assembly secretary state day mailed called summary date day upon calculations made proponents allowed maximum 150 days circulate petitions collect signatures however initiative measure must qualify least 131 days statewide election submitted voters therefore past deadline qualify next statewide election march 5 2002 statewide primaries could qualify statewide general election november 5 2002 however window tight election well proposal would need submitted attorney general end september 2001 qualify november 2002 legislature may conduct public hearings proposed initiative amend whatever submitted goes ballot initiative requires gathering signatures equal five percent total votes cast governor preceding gubernatorial election 419 260 signatures ability collect signature heavily dependent amount money proponents pay signature gatherers seems unlikely consumer groups able raise kind money quickly harvey rosenfield foundation taxpayer consumer rights successful placing pro consumer initiatives ballot including prop 9 1998 sought undo ab 1890 public understood ramifications referendum referenda ballot fairly rare comparison initiatives although successful referendum march 7 2000 ballot prior last four questions placed voters appeared june 1982 primary election ballot four defeated since 1912 approximately 50 attempts qualify referenda ballot 50 attempts 39 qualified ballot 26 prevented legislative statutes taking effect circulation calendar verification timing form petition different requirements initiatives example california constitution requires process must completed within ninety days enactment bill referred signature requirements referendum initiative statute though political dynamics notwithstanding governor assembly speaker desire enact edison rescue package senate president pro tem john burton driver seat fact noted perception among governor needs burton way around one business source close negotiations believes burton inclined ask members make second vote edison bailout fact members houses worried perceived bailing hobbled utility reluctance fed generators lobbyists sharing survey data indicates voters blame utilities energy mess oppose bailout currently due largely dynamic others shaver lake issue 41 votes edison rescue assembly believe change governor speaker exert influence bill pass assembly difficult make predictions regarding assembly state senate presents even larger challenge however point opinion odds edison rescue package approved state senate less 50 percent