cera monthly summary june 2000 cera monthly summary listed items cambridge energy distributed month june summary provided cera monthly summary title cera monthly summary june 2000 author cera e mail category monthly summary product line monthly summary url http www cera com cfm track eprofile cfm u 5526 1260 table contents 1 bonn climate change meeting treading water 2 hitting retail energy net e commerce companies join game 3 turkish parliament votes blue stream tax protocol 4 oil coming black sea cause bosphorus crisis 5 european green energy let market decide 6 pastrana facing sunset 7 anp round two brazil upstream auction 8 brazilian power markets demand recovery gathers steam supply questions remain 9 mexico elections real battle begins 10 colombia weary war wary peace 11 argentine power markets winter constraints push prices higher may 12 us gas markets reach new heights stop 13 monthly briefing pressure cooker 14 western canada supply growth getting nowhere faster 15 north american gas watch reaching new heights 16 closing utility stock valuation gap strategy matter 17 summer 2000 spot electricity markets outlook divergent trends price volatility 18 atlantic basin gasoline markets soar 19 refined products line us markets 20 refined products line european markets 21 recent actions signal progress toward mtbe elimination 22 refined products market update 23 new peaks new prices 24 oil market turmoil opec seeks short term fix 25 state oil market market supported psychology enhanced opec driven 26 opec cautious new agreement cera alert 06 22 2000 title bonn climate change meeting treading water author kaplow e mail category alert product line climate change environment url summary recently concluded 12 th session subsidiary bodies bonn next last negotiating session details kyoto protocol scheduled finalized november made little progress key issues meetings serve highlight divisions within three negotiating blocks identify contentious areas future discussion cera private report 06 22 2000 title hitting retail energy net e commerce companies join game author robertson behrens biehl e mail category private report product line retail energy forum energy establishment method guaranteeing renewable origin energy lays foundation green energy markets medium term cera decision brief 06 05 2000 title pastrana facing sunset author puyana scott e mail category decision brief product line latin american energy url summary colombia expected begin economic recovery 2000 contraction 5 percent 1999 despite expansion unemployment levels remain stable 19 percent losses incurred companies individuals government lower tax revenues last nine quarters negative economic growth recovered year administration andr pastrana arango faces difficult challenge getting economy back shape time popularity waning cera alert 06 09 2000 title anp round two brazil upstream auction author scott mattos e mail category alert product line latin american energy url summary opening brazil upstream oil sector taken another step forward week following successful anp auction 21 blocks bidding round comes one year anp first round held june 1999 bid well subscribed 44 companies qualified participate bid 10 onshore 13 offshore blocks throughout nine basins brazil although anp collected lower participation fees first round us 9 0 million compared us 9 8 million first round second round generally considered success cera alert 06 16 2000 title brazilian power markets demand recovery gathers steam supply questions remain author bailey mattos e mail category alert product line latin american energy url summary brazil power demand grew rapidly throughout first quarter 2000 february demand 6 8 percent february 1999 levels march demand grew 7 6 percent previous year industrial sector continued lead recovery year date demand growing 9 8 percent 1999 commercial sector demand growth remained strong 7 5 percent similar period demand growth strengthened hydro power generation increased thermal generation levels declined steadily peak january hydro stored energy levels begun decline regions end april signaling end wet season rapidly increasing demand particularly south southeast regions brazil could experience power shortages coming dry season capacity additions currently scheduled come online next several months delayed cera decision brief 06 20 2000 title mexico elections real battle begins author puyana e mail category decision brief product line latin american energy url summary first time many decades presidential parliamentary campaigns highly competitive results democratically conducted elections large impact effectiveness future new administration however real political battle begins elections indeed winning party exercise political skills create coalitions advance negotiations order take control government three different scenarios portrayed cera decision brief cera decision brief 06 26 2000 title colombia weary war wary peace author puyana scott e mail category decision brief product line latin american energy url summary july 2000 marks second anniversary widely publicized visit president elect andres pastrana elderly guerilla chief armed revolutionary forces colombia farc manuel marulanda two years later country closer peace resolution ongoing negotiations uncertain best prolongation stagnation peace process direct negative impact energy sector investment colombia government likely proceed formal negotiations time pastrana remaining term office running cera alert 06 30 2000 title argentine power markets winter constraints push prices higher may author bailey e mail category alert product line latin american energy url summary prices argentine power market significantly higher may owing combination continued low hydro output strong demand growth periodic constraints natural gas deliveries power plants buenos aires region spot power prices energy component averaged 18 24 per megawatt hour mwh may although average power prices declined last year price volatility increased several short duration episodes prices 60 per mwh gas unavailability buenos aires region forced several midcost units offline peak hours june prices expected continue strengthening 24 28 per mwh range average beyond june price pressures expected remain negative increasing hydro output new returning low cost thermal capacity end gas constraints push average prices back toward 15 per mwh august september cera alert 06 01 2000 title us gas markets reach new heights stop author n american gas team e mail category alert product line north american gas url summary us gas market enters month june prices highest level since deregulation henry hub prices surged high 4 50 per mmbtu less 3 00 per mmbtu april behind building serious shortfall supply result disappointing gas production levels surging gas demand power generation gap two forces met storage inventories injections far spring running 1 5 2 0 bcf per day last year rate continued tension two forces keep pressure prices summer need inject gas storage price increments demand cera alert 06 15 2000 title monthly briefing pressure cooker author n american natural gas team e mail category alert product line north american gas url summary pressure remains extremely strong united states gas market three factors increasing power generation demand lower storage inventories us wellhead supply still struggling rebound call question ability build storage level adequate next winter prices supported also concurrent strength oil liquids markets making traditional alternatives gas much expensive recent years environment intense competition power generation demand storage injections continue throughout summer pressure increasing july temperatures rise result gas continue price high levels necessary discourage end use demand cera expects july average price 4 45 per mmbtu cera decision brief 06 15 2000 title western canada supply growth getting nowhere faster author eynon small e mail category decision brief product line north american gas url summary us supply declines demand grows current high gas prices reinforced western canadian gas supply growth appears faltering needed transitory factors enduring trends underlie disappointing production growth results largely weather related transitory factors near term impact drilling connection activity underlying trends developing slowly time shallow gas wells drilled past three four years created shift higher average basin declines lower average per well production rates thus shallow wells needed replace production shift exploration deeper drilling higher supply growth rates possible occur potential supply sources may step significant arctic reserves mckenzie delta alaskan north slope entering spotlight coal bed methane become str ong source us supply although ignored canada may become future source canadian gas cera watch 06 20 2000 title reaching new heights author n american natural gas team e mail category watch product line north american gas url summary fundamentals taken center stage building demand pressure accompanies us supply declines storage inventories significantly reduced pressure storage injections likely intensify head summer months demand driven growth continues completions gas fired power generation plants accelerate pace 10 000 megawatts per year economic growth stimulates electricity demand result higher price playing field natural gas average henry hub price likely reach 3 67 per mmbtu 2000 highest level since development spot markets cera private report 06 21 2000 title closing utility stock valuation gap strategy matter author parshley e mail category private report product line north american power url summary stock market delivering unsettling message utility industry traditionally undervalued market sector trading historically wide 50 percent discount standard poor p 500 p utility index past 18 months gained 5 percent huge gains energy companies offset 15 percent drop stock price 29 electric utilities yet early year spu outpaced industry groups constantly evolving utilities wide open sector form strategic plan maximize shareholder value achieving success value electric utility merger acquisition deals 1999 record 50 billion double 1998 value choices ahead curve market catch three groups new companies distinctive strategies may provide clues new strategic landscape multiservice technology providers superregionals global power energy companies three strategic choices considered evaluating responses challenges cera decision brief 06 23 2000 title summer 2000 spot electricity markets outlook divergent trends price volatility author makovich sannicandro e mail category decision brief product line north american power url summary several regional power markets likely see repeat price spikes summer markets likely see reversal price volatility supply demand balances improve dramatically one way interpret forward markets consensus market expectations therefore forward prices peak wholesale power reflect common expectation prices spike high even higher 1999 significant disconnect exists forward market prices market fundamentals upcoming summer regional markets cera alert 06 02 2000 title atlantic basin gasoline markets soar author meyers e mail category alert product line refined products url summary spurred supply concerns start summer driving season spot gasoline crude oil price differentials sides north atlantic soared highest levels seen since gulf war cera view strength margins attributable convergence three factors low inventories tightening gasoline specifications legal uncertainty cera alert 06 13 2000 title refined products line us markets author refined products team e mail category alert product line refined products url summary us gasoline market exhibited exceptional strength may us gulf coast unleaded gasoline surged 8 40 per barrel measured wti 3 58 per barrel strong april value 4 82 apparent demand gasoline skyrocketed 8 64 million barrels per day mbd response start summer driving season despite increases reported demand distillate jet kerosene markets experience month month strength differentials dropping 1 58 2 58 per barrel versus wti respectively cera alert 06 20 2000 title refined products line european markets author refined products team e mail category alert product line refined products url summary higher crude oil prices started reduce high product differentials brent thus lower refinery margins refiners attempted prevent situation worsening reducing throughputs however tight markets gasoline lesser extent automotive diesel helped limit fall products values meanwhile fuel oil discounts crude oil widened may driving simple hydroskimming margins recent weeks combination lower primary products inventories reductions operations refineries helped differentials recover pushed margins may averages although still april peaks cera alert 06 26 2000 title recent actions signal progress toward mtbe elimination author stackpole e mail category alert product line refined products url summary close scrutiny federal reformulated gasoline rfg faces media public officials owing midwestern market price spikes stopped inexorable political progress toward eliminating methyl tertiary butyl ether mtbe use us gasoline pool additional signposts including heightened congressional debate legislation eliminating mtbe use state actions ban mtbe continue emerge point way toward mtbe free gasoline united states cera alert 06 29 2000 title refined products market update author refined products team e mail category alert product line refined products url summary refined products markets continue display marked regional differences atlantic basin low gasoline inventories united states europe resulted many months opec production restraint continue dominate market gasoline differentials crude highest level ten years although signs emerging possible correction north american market coming month 2000 gasoline season almost certainly strongest experienced atlantic basin refiners many years contrast asia pacific spot refining margins weak june recent accident kpc mina al ahmadhi refinery prompted quick strengthening prompt singapore margins however ample unused refining capacity available east suez likelihood partial restart kpc refinery july cera outlook strength short duration cera alert 06 23 2000 title new peaks new prices author zenker moritzburke snyder e mail category alert product line western energy url summary west july typically marks start summer cooling season steadily rising power prices cera expect west region north america year year increase peak electricity demand power prices already established new record highs june suggesting demand reaches peak coming months western power markets continue experience increased volatility compared last year levels convergence higher gas prices growing power demand reduced hydroelectric energy production compared 1999 levels pushing western power prices greater utilization gas fired generators within west supported western differentials contributed high gas prices throughout north america western gas prices continue strong boosted continuing increases regional gas demand power generation pressure across north america inject gas storage anticipation summer power loads cera alert 06 15 2000 title oil market turmoil opec seeks short term fix author world oil team e mail category alert product line world oil url summary driven strong demand especially recovering asian economies united states oil prices wti brent broken 30 level mark particular significance us election year turn oil market attention fixed opec prepares june 21 meeting members deeply divided respond cera alert 06 16 2000 title state oil market market supported psychology enhanced opec driven author world oil team e mail category alert product line world oil url summary key ingredient volatile oil market new opec successful implementation strategy keep supply one half step behind demand driving inventories crude side effect lowering stocks several products markets united states europe three features current oil market supporting prices market supported psychology enhanced opec driven cera alert 06 22 2000 title opec cautious new agreement author world oil team e mail category alert product line world oil url summary opec agreement raise production quota beginning july 1 708 000 barrels per day 25 4 million barrels per day consistent strategy restraining supply maintain oil inventories relatively low levels gain supply short term fix meant alleviate political pressure increased production push prices 30 keep mid upper 20 range end follow url html version message note url work please use following account changes edit personal account information including e mail address etc go http eprofile cera com cfm edit account cfm electronic message attachments contain information cambridge energy research associates inc cera confidential may privileged unauthorized disclosure copying distribution use contents message attachments whole part strictly prohibited terms use http www cera com tos html questions comments webmaster cera com copyright 2000 cambridge energy research associates