hill stimulus bill update 11 02 01 based meetings washington new york yesterday updates early morning know stimulus bill debate prominence debate increase intensify throughout month quickly shaping critical measure post 9 11 bipartisanship prelude 2002 mid term elections contact brendan fitzsimmons x 5 4763 follow enron global markets competitive analysis hill stimulus bill update 11 02 01 summary timing bush wants stimulus bill thanksgiving looking highly unlikely without major unlikely capitulation hill even bill christmas less likely days ago meaning rebate checks come well 02 remains risk nothing done year next week fed senate sources report pessimism concerning passage fiscal stimulus increases likelihood greenspan pushes 50 bp cut tuesday expect partisan mark baucus senate fin committee next tuesday wednesday setting stage stalemate public political recriminations data pressure early tell whether massive jump unemployment rate 5 4 change atmospherics surrounding week talks number clear extreme partisanship delay passage make final cost package expensive sides try buy votes final conference committee negotiations conference outlook compromise bill reached expect final numbers run higher 100 b bill gets final conference bill report hill white house bush speech wednesday opening move white house plan pressure compromise stimulus bill wh message republican chorus followed provoked stronger resistance daschle dems core healthcare unemployment provisions yesterday white house discussions senators baucus grassley went nowhere white house refusing meet prior senate action senate finance committee leadership planning highly partisan session tuesday wednesday next week attempt pass bill senator baucus drafted released last week bush must spend political capital give stimulus greater visibility priority order get house senate compromise expect treasury join fray daschle warning minimal stimulus maximum danger future budgets well future daschle digging senate finance chair baucus still standing loyal buoyed focus groups polling showing standing house republicans tax cut weighted bill winning message senate bill several elements strongly rejected white house house republicans including extended health care facilities cobra key administration attempts find compromise failed although may legislation passed senate finance committee next week mark passed exceptionally rigid party line vote entrenched positions sides reinforced macroeconomy fed tuesday treasury announced plans end 30 yr bonds today employment report strengthen pricing 50 bp tuesday 25 bp december 11 continue direct attention back back forth hill wh fed meeting focus neill lindsey within administration waiting washington heightened sense immediacy us macro data continues confirm recession 100 b stimulus bill already priced market delay failure passing bill could strong negative effects week raft weak data particularly today confirmed weak employment report increase pressure movement stimulus bill