lou steinberg plvcsrutgersedu get different results two scenarios null hypotheses trying falsify mean differrent things term mike one scenario null hypothesis one specific person mike chose good stocks many times luck scenario null hypothesis people chose stocks least one call one mike well luck extra people dont provide information mikes skill provide alternatives mike could look one person chances lucky small look lot people chances least one lucky get bigger wed 06 aug 2008 094105 0400 uai luck skill