update ffvols ted update implementation ffvols 1 comparing 6 days historical var calculations implied agg gas found historical var calculations consistently lower period roughly 17 mm implied volatilities much higher period anticipating strong winter prices 2 time consensus relase historical implementation production official line traders method still testing historical var 19 2 mm implied 37 mm effective date 09 25 3 testing progress hybrid methodology mentioned last week whereby historical vols scaled ratio prompt historical prompt volatilities atleast capture implied forward effects tanya analysis fictitious portfolio indicates higher var numbers poorer backtesting comparison historical approach approach serves intermediate seems appropriate periods current one wherein historical numbers might considerably lower implied 4 winston start testing using hybrid vols results deemed satisfactory production methodology course obtain var numbers concurrently serve different indicators beacons risk production number hopefully sensible compromise different methods regards naveen