temporary slack cera alert cera latest near term analysis forwarded lorna brennan et enron 10 27 2000 02 40 pm webmaster cera com 10 26 2000 06 05 45 pm lorna brennan enron com cc subject temporary slack cera alert cera alert sent thu october 26 2000 title temporary slack author n american gas team e mail category alert product line north american gas url http www cera com cfm track eprofile cfm u 5526 1402 alternative url warm weather strong storage injections temporarily shifted focus gas market away potential supply shortage winter toward growing sense supplies might prove adequate result steady steep decline november nymex price 5 63 per mmbtu october 12 4 60 october 25 cash prices followed suit falling mid 5 50 4 60 henry hub gas pricing residual fuel oil gulf coast especially east coast although gas storage inventories begin winter levels higher expected cera view adequate supply winter yet assured market remains subject quick return prices well 5 00 first cold snap storage injections 71 billion cubic feet bcf week ended october 20 accompanied broad based continuing warm weather driven shift market psychology last week injection rate 26 5 bcf approximately 3 8 bcf per day previous five year average seven days 58 bcf 13 bcf injections recorded last year week ending october 22 warm weather week return normal temperatures expected next week cera expects storage reach maximum level 2 784 bcf october 31 still time low entering winter 26 bcf see table 1 inventory level enough yet storage inventories winter 15 year normal weather conditions would fall approximately 780 bcf 22 bcf previous time low end march minimum implies total withdrawals united states winter 2 0 trillion cubic feet tcf 128 bcf last year withdrawals holding withdrawals winter 2 0 tcf face return normal weather demand rebound 3 0 bcf per day would bring difficult although beginning us supply rebound growing imports add approximately 1 0 bcf per day supplies winter holding withdrawals requires following industrial markets mainly ammonia methanol producers shut high gas prices must remain shut markets represent approximately 0 5 bcf per day demand could return gas prices moderate relative ammonia methanol nearly 1 5 bcf per day switchable load burning residual fuel oil must remain gas cera view gas prices fall resid sustained basis particularly power loads increase winter must become apparent winter demand met current resid load return gas storage inventories held reasonably near previous record low low 758 bcf occurred march 1996 accompanied february average price 4 41 march average 3 00 henry hub spring however us productive capability nearly 4 0 bcf per day greater today winter power generation demand lower 4 5 million fewer residential commercial gas customers united states market fundamentals cera view still support gas prices resid writing pricing 4 75 5 00 per mmbtu range warm weather throughout november december could reverse relationship warm october alone insufficient cold weather within next weeks quickly tighten slack temporarily come market cera price outlook november average 5 50 henry hub stands end follow url pdf version alert associated table cera autumn 2000 roundtable event dates agendas available http www cera com event account changes edit personal account information including e mail address etc go http eprofile cera com cfm edit account cfm electronic message attachments contain information cambridge energy research associates inc cera confidential may privileged unauthorized disclosure copying distribution use contents message attachments whole part strictly prohibited terms use http www cera com tos html questions comments webmaster cera com copyright 2000 cambridge energy research associates