ca supply realities seen analysis attached please find note mary schoen detailing serious physical shortage problems may occur summer ca jim forwarded james steffes na enron 02 26 2001 08 51 mary schoen 02 22 2001 02 55 pm neil bresnan hou ees ees alan comnes pdx ect ect jubran whalan hou ees ees kristin walsh hou ect ect clayton seigle hou ect ect jeffrey keeler corp enron enron james steffes na enron enron harry kingerski na enron enron richard shapiro na enron enron janel guerrero corp enron enron jeff dasovich na enron enron sandra mccubbin na enron enron susan j mara na enron enron paul kaufman pdx ect ect cc subject ca supply realities attached memo comparing cec forecasted supply realistic look additional resources might available summer bottom line 1 cec significantly underestimates outages may occur summer estimate 5 000 mw supply deficit summer expected outages around 3 000 mw however november december saw significantly higher outage levels 7 265 mws ferc investigated outages found improprieties plants overtaxed running higher normal capacities 2 lot uncertainties surrounding 1 244 mws projected supply rerating restarting existing thermal renewable projects unclear much able come line summer evidenced e mail sent morning local communities may opposed restarting shut units addition units likely uneconomical 3 existing resource pool roughly 1 430 mws peaking generation units running operating hour limitations air quality regulations governor ordered local air quality districts address restrictions beginning seem movement however us epa yet weigh relaxed standards 4 distributed generation back generation capacity make shortfall still unknown relaxing limitations run hours back generation essential public services increase dg expected clean sources diesel emergency generators 5 cec everything get 50 mw peaking units line summer promising 21 day permit application approval process offering pay half cost offsets clean sources generation critical areas please let know questions need additional information cec summer forecasted peak demand resource balance list peakers running operating hour limitations also available hard copy format please e mail fax number like copy table 1 fully executed ca iso summer reliability agreements iso peaking facilities table 2 summer 2001 supply options renewables construction status summary table 3 summer 2001 supply options rerate non cec projects table 4 summer 2001 supply options cec rerate status summary table 5 idle biomass plants potentially capable restart mary schoen environmental strategies enron corp 713 345 7422