invitation speak infocast upcoming market price volatility program ron sorry inform due scheduling conflict speak conference want thank considering speaker vince kaminski ron henderson 12 30 99 06 57 05 pm please respond ronh com vince j kaminski hou ect ect cc subject invitation speak infocast upcoming market price volatility program hi vince would like invite one staff speaker infocast upcoming conference market price volatility model assess manage price volatility today power markets scheduled may 10 12 2000 chicago attaching copy draft program agenda review may note wish take recent houston meeting step farther making next session technically oriented meeting two spots may wish consider 1 session entitled case study modeling volatility scheduled wednesday may 10 th 3 30 5 00 pm note mind case study 2 talk real options approach asset valuation scheduled thursday may 11 th 10 30 12 00 pm running behind schedule finalizing program give call shortly follow wish please feel free call 818 888 4445 ext 28 hope join us ron henderson infocast 818 888 4445 ext 28 ronh com case study guidelines 1 model particular market examples pjm chicago ecar southern california lb optional model particular purpose examples valuing new combustion turbine florida georgia border bidding portfolio power plants sale nepool valuing retail portfolio pennsylvania 2 model estimated particular data set examples daily nymex close prices palo verde pjm hourly spot prices 1998 1999 3 case study describe several candidate models volatility market price considered case study discuss models considered candidate models described mathematically verbally 4 evaluation criteria choosing among models explicitly identified quantified extent possible examples evaluation criteria residuals autorcorrelated stationarity r squared akaike information criterion 5 parameter estimates candidate model displayed estimation procedure employed briefly described 6 diagnostics model fit vis vis data set presented 7 possible predictive power model assessed generally case study include items case study may include things draft agenda v 2 doc