pre submitted question espeak erin book martha amram nalin kulatilaka excellent non technical introduction real options contains important references advanced books papers book endorsement jeff skilling cover page research group offered several one day seminars real options applications energy industry still binders presentation materials available interested plan repeat seminar sometimes fall first part seminar 4 hours morning covers general concept real options applicability energy business second technical afternoon session covers stochastic processes used model price uncertainty energy markets specific case studies valuation natural gas storage facilities peaking gas fired power plants real options approach developed specifically address problem making investment decisions uncertainty nobody field claims perfect tool represents significant progress compared techniques developed earlier discounted cash flow analysis tries incorporate uncertainty analysis several cases arbitrary scenarios likely optimistic pessimistic scenarios identify explicitly risk drivers specify future proactive management decisions real option approach powerful allows 1 capture uncertainty explicit way 2 design investment projects allow exploit future positive developments reduce future exposures downside risk approach allows also create link investment decisions future operational decisions forward looking investment decisions create options exercised future active management project real options technology relies heavily advanced statistical tools come representation future possible states world real challenge use tools sensible way seen career almost 30 years applying mathematical tools business economic problems many quants armed powerful computers reminded monkeys armed hammers challenge run mechanically thousands simulations based arbitrary assumptions translate creative way insights people understand specific businesses parsimonious quantitative models especially critical stress test assumptions model ask question outcome model depends critically set assumptions case one use common sense examine underlying assumptions remember early eighties quite models simulated dynamics oil prices stochastic scenarios represented fluctuations around optimistic upward trend one would better stepping back asking simple question economics 101 teaches cartels dynamics supply demand enron north america corp erin rice enron 06 27 2000 03 52 pm vince j kaminski hou ect ect cc subject pre submitted question espeak good news already question waiting july 12 espeak session pasted although respond actual event forget send bulleted list discussion topics would still like us advertise event elevator screens thanks er submitted breineck reading application real options evaluation non financial assets would recommend texts articles depth study area quantification risk uncertainty major challenge using concept statistical tools used sort sensitivity analysis