kathryn blackmond laskey voqydpjgmuedu dear rich probably much bargained asked oxford american dictionary defines objective real existence outside persons mind strict subjectivists de finetti savage regard probabilities entirely subjective except requirement conform coherence constraints scientists take position phenomena nature follow intrinsically probabilistic laws probabilities associated phenomena objective properties world reflecting aspect reality outside minds human scientists know issue arouses great passions profound disagreement undoubtedly know de finettis exchangeability theorem states regard sequence events infinitely exchangeable assign probability distribution whose mathematical form sequence independent identically distributed events conditional unknown parameter distributed according probability density function show theorem strict subjectivist say see told need theory true unknown probabilities everything need sticking strictly subjective probabilities exchangeability assumptions show theorem believer objective probabilities say aha subjectivists believe objective probabilities wont admit right theorem mathematical consequence subjective theory parameter mixing equation true unknown probability two agree mathematics disagree words attach mathematics correct phil dawid wonderful paper called well calibrated bayesian went beyond de finettis theorem arbitrary sequences events ones frequentists would model independent events given probability proved something similar general de finettis result coherent bayesian assigns probabilities sequence events assessments reflect knowledge prior occurrence event receive feedback actual outcomes events believe probability 1 long enough sequence trials assessed frequencies match actual observed frequencies arbitrary accuracy course could wrong belief assessments become calibrated frequencies two assessors calibrated sense numerical difference probability assessments become arbitrarily small long periods time someone whose assessed probabilities reflect lack knowledge deterministic process wont calibrated sense assessor knowledge deterministic process would assign probabilities zero one wouldnt agree infinite limit probabilistic forecast counterargument process might deterministic knowable forecaster exactly would mean lets consider quantum theory quantum theory bestvalidated scientific theory discovered date makes probabilistic predictions form system prepared according experimental procedure e measurement performed result r occur probability p strict constraints quantum probabilities specifically experimental procedures covered theory ones reliably produce system given quantum state state represented mathematical object called density matrix operator hilbert space think quantum state square matrix complex entries positive eigenvalues sum one measurement represented projection operator projects density matrix onto subspace ie state replaced randomly one set matrices lower rank probability result given random lowerrank matrix given rule called born rule sum eigenvalues subspace spanned lower rank matrix experiments date sufficient knowledge control produce system definite state subject definite measurement ie make accurate tests predictions quantum theory predictions theory borne stunning accuracy many cases predictions profoundly violated intuitions best scientific minds time one ever found violation predictions quantum theory physical phenomena know appear consistent quantum theory quantum probabilities objective einstein didnt think jaynes didnt think believed quantum probabilities reflect ignorance fundamental deterministic theory despite considerable effort one yet found theory people havent stopped trying carlton caves asserted quantum probabilities must subjective observer full knowledge probability zero one given full knowledge would include outcome actually occurred meaningful definition full knowledge probability assessment would include events occurring times event question suspect caves doesnt see nonsubjective way define full prior knowledge universe temporal relationships events relative meaningful observerindependent definition according specify full knowledge quantum probability assessments mean universe subject relativity theory full prior knowledge means everything past light cone event quantum theory predicts probability state system immediately measurement performed conditional measurement operator applied entire past light cone system instant measurement quantum theory says aspects past light cone relevant predicting probability state system prior applying measurement operator ii operator applied quantum theory gives precise rule depends prior state operator applied calculating probability experimental tests quantum theorys predictions confirmed high accuracy think satisfies oxford american dictionary definition objective think quantum probabilities existence outside persons mind quantum probabilities nothing opinions bunch subjective assessors agree probability assessments thus far accurate predicting frequencies nothing objective real world corresponds probabilities ive kind discussion reading listening others kind discussion long time ive discovered many people sure answers questions blindingly obvious anyone doesnt see truth must either stupid willfully blind problem people sure answer yes objective probabilities others sure answer objective probabilities people use equations make empirical predictions observation could make test could run could prove one right wrong thus arent arguing science talking religion objective realist probabilities strict subjectivist matter math science matter metaphysics religion story tell make sense math empirical data teacher want understand people sides issue think help students understand find natural stories tell make sense math empirical data best regards kathy 1232 pm 0700 82106 doug morgan wrote rich todays best models detailed physical behavior involve step collapsing wave function upon making measurement step modeled draw random distribution computed wave function wave function may feynman path integral solution schrodinger wave equation something similar cases dynamic thing updates deterministic way probability distribution measurement computed definition measurement ultimately left ones physics intuition always includes permanent effect potentially noticable person experiments proposed performed make sharper distinction measurement model people use people look nonprobabalistic model matches observations well better one model hasnt found yet point comprehensive nonprobabilistic model appear one might justified strong feeling universe could really deterministic ubiquitous use probability models physics could make wonder connections questions like philosophy might cant imagine doug rich wrote interests recently roused question plagued many us least since laplace universe deterministic something truly probabilistic going whatever means actually inability resolve matter made suspect humans relatively unevolved therefore incapable understanding much cases would interested learning recent philosophical treatise matter havent read anything matter 5 years thanks rich richard e neapolitan professor chair computer science northeastern illinois university 5500 n st louis chicago illinois 60625 uai mailing list _______________________________________________ uai mailing list faqengrorstedu httpssecureengroregonstateedumailmanlistinfouai thu 07 aug 2008 045949 0400 uai determinism verses chance