fw west var fyi forwarded tim belden hou ect 04 30 2001 07 43 john j lavorato enron enronxgate 04 30 2001 09 40 cdt tim belden hou ect ect david port enron enronxgate cc subject fw west var tim get stopped talked david port today last year spent lot time cleaning gas var must spend time fixing power var however fixed choice use reported numbers original message belden tim sent monday april 30 2001 9 19 lavorato john kitchen louise gorny vladimir cc presto kevin subject west var numbers generated west var comport believe risk think may correlation across months across locations example ltnw book grant total mwh september peak 194 000 mwh september peak var report shows mike 20 million var 16 million coming september total var 30 million 20 million september rough calculations would entire curve move roughly 100 mwh one day var accurate means every 20 days entire summer curve peak peak would move excess 100 mwh might add short q 4 giving us credit offset understand lot risk books think much var model spitting wierd things happen var model option valuation models due interaction blending formula volatility correlations approach delivery see thing option valuations see option model valuations e g transmission spread options going roof trading fractions model valuations reality similarly var model valuations move really fast summer approaches bottom line need know want us chewing lot var going get stopped need know think would shame close largely spread position necessarily practical impact real profitability would make model happy