r hettinga rahshipwrightcom httpnewyorkercomfactcontent020401fa_fact1 new yorker next world order nicholas lemann bush administration may brandnew doctrine power issue 20020401 posted 20020325 change commandand governmentthe new people often persuade old people much worse anyone suspected feeling seems especially intense bush administration perhaps bill clinton bracketed fatherson team easy people administration believe unfortunate eightyear interlude bush family resumed governanceand time bush administrations sense clinton years waste worse strongest realms foreign policy military affairs republicans tend regard democrats untrustworthy defense foreign policy anyway ways coincide people think clintons weak points eagerness please lack discipline condoleezza rice bushs nationalsecurity adviser wrote article foreign affairs two years ago contemptuously accused clinton extraordinary neglect fiduciary responsibilities commander chief top figures foreign affairs administration also served presidents father took office last year regard eight years smalltime flyswatting clinton thinking picking theyd left long ago lunch withsorrya senior administration foreignpolicy official restaurant washington called oval room early lunch handed twentyseven page report whose cover bore seal department defense outline map world words defense strategy 1990s regional defense strategy secretary defense dick cheney january 1993 one difficulties working highest level government communicating drama actors professional athletes even elected politicians train years go great winnowing perform publicly people titles like deputy assistant secretary defense ambitious competitive worked long hard often playing even higher stakesbut day go meetings write memos prepare briefings possibly explain documents including report senior official handed physically indistinguishable highschool term paper represent government version playing carnegie hall fall berlin wall dick cheney secretary defense set shop say think american foreign policy cold war grand strategic level project whose existence kept quiet included people back game higher level among paul wolfowitz deputy secretary defense lewis libby cheneys chief staff eric edelman senior foreignpolicy adviser cheneygenerally speaking cohesive group conservatives regard biggerthinking tougherminded intellectually bolder people washington donald rumsfeld secretary defense shares characteristics closely associated cheney thirty years colin powell chairman joint chiefs staff mounted competing presumably ideologically moderate effort reimagine american foreign policy defense date setmay 21 1990on team would brief cheney hour cheney would brief president bush bush would make foreignpolicy address unveiling new grand strategy everybody worked months fivetwentyone brief sense shape postcold war world stake wolfowitz powell arrived cheneys office may 21st wolfowitz went first briefing lasted far beyond allotted hour cheney hawk perhaps liked hearing call time powell didnt get present alternate version future united states world couple weeks later cheney briefed president bush using material mostly wolfowitz bush prepared major foreignpolicy address delivered august 2 1990 day iraq invaded kuwait nobody noticed team kept working 1992 times got hands version material published frontpage story saying pentagon envisioned future united states could prevent nation alliance becoming great power weeks controversy ensued bush administrations hawks unilateralcontroversy cheneys people put end denials counterleak edited softer version material became apparent bush going lose clinton cheney teams efforts took quality parting shot report senior official handed lunch issued days clinton took office somewhat bland opaque documenta scrubbed meaning unclassified version something candidbut contained essential ideas shaping rather reacting rest world preventing rise superpowers tone one skepticism diplomatic partnerships forthright version ideas found short book titled containment global leadership zalmay khalilzad joined cheneys team 1991 special envoy afghanistan published couple years clinton administration government recommends united states preclude rise another global rival indefinite future khalilzad writes vital us interest preclude developmentie willing use force necessary purpose george w bush campaigning president people around didnt seem proposing great doctrinal shift along lines policy containment soviet unions sphere influence united states maintained cold war first major foreignpolicy speech delivered november 1999 bush declared president must cleareyed realist formulation seems connote absence worldremaking ambition realism exactly foreignpolicy doctrine cheneys pentagon team rejected partly posits impossibility one countrys ever dominating world affairs length time one gets many reminders washington days much terrorist attacks september 11th changed official foreignpolicy thinking chief executive either party would probably done bush done farmade war taliban al qaeda enhanced domestic security six months attacks truly entering realm presidential choice indications bush going use september 11th occasion launch new aggressive american foreign policy would represent broad change direction rather specific war terrorism rhetoric especially two addresses given joint sessions congress since september 11th information state mind aides leaked indicate sees nations moment destinya perception people around seem encouraging enhances bushs stature opens way assertive policymaking inside government reason september 11th appears transformative moment senior official lunch put much revealed existence threat officials previously unaware drastically reduced american publics usual resistance american military involvement overseas least clinton administration beginning black hawk operation mogadishu first year operated conviction americans highly averse casualties allbombing kosovo operation clintons nexttolast year ideal foreign military adventure united states attacked options much broader senior official approvingly mentioned 1999 study casualty aversion triangle institute security studies argued mass public much less casualtyaverse military civilian lite believes example study showed public would tolerate thirty thousand deaths military operation prevent iraq acquiring weapons mass destruction american death total vietnam war fiftyeight thousand september 11th presumably reduced casualty aversion even recently went white house interview condoleezza rice rices foreign affairs article 2000 begins declaration united states found exceedingly difficult define national interest absence soviet power asked whether still case think difficulty passed defining role said immediately think september 11th one great earthquakes clarify sharpen events much sharper relief like bush said opposing terrorism preventing accumulation weapons mass destruction hands irresponsible states define national interest latter goal way newin bushs speech congress september 20th americas sole grand purpose ending terrorism talked west wing office tall windows face part white house grounds television reporters standups bearing rice seemed less crisply military public looked little tired projecting kind missionary calm rather belligerence foreign affairs article rice came across classic realist putting forth notions power politics great powers power balances proper central concerns united states sounded moved closer onepower idea cheneys pentagon team proposed ten years agoor least idea great powers harmony united states terrorist attacks induced remain theoretically realists would predict great power like united states would long great powers rising challenge trying balance rice said think youre seeing theres least predilection time move productive coperative relations united states rather try balance united states actually think statecraft matters comes foreordained rice said called together senior staff people national security council asked think seriously capitalize opportunities fundamentally change american doctrine shape world wake september 11th really think period analogous 1945 1947 saidthat period containment doctrine took shapein events clearly demonstrated big global threat big global threat lot countries would normally thought coalition started shifting tectonic plates international politics important try seize position american interests institutions harden national security council legally required produce annual document called national security strategy stating overall goals american policyanother government report whose importance great obvious bush administration produce one last year clinton administration first year rice said working report two ways handle document told one kind minimalist way get view since going first one bush administration important awful lot happened since started process prior 911 cant give certain date going would think sometime spring important real statement bush administration sees strategic direction going seems clear already rice set forth hope dominant american role world might couple years ago questions dont appear settled yet obviously asked much united states willing operate alone foreign affairs much change willing try engender inside countriesand end means leak couple weeks ago new american nuclear posture adding offensive capability rogue states departed decades official adherence purely defensive position one indication scope reconsideration going united states position redrawing regional maps especially middle east replacing governments force nobody thought bush administration would thinking ambitious terms plainly internal debate right months ago 2000 election republican foreignpolicy figure suggested good indication bush administrations direction foreign affairs would got higherranking job paul wolfowitz richard haass haass another veteran first bush administration intellectual like wolfowitz much moderate 1997 published book titled reluctant sheriff poked little fun wolfowitzs famous strategy briefing early nineties called pentagon paper disagreed idea united states try worlds great power long term better worse goal beyond reach haass wrote simply doable elsewhere book disagreed another wolfowitz teams main ideas united states expanding democratic zone peace primacy confused hegemony united states compel others become democratic haass argued united states becoming less dominant world suggested revival might called traditional greatpower politics wolfowitz got higherranking job haass deputy secretary defense haass director policy planning state department effect colin powells bigthink guy recently went see office state department wall waiting room array photographs every past director policyplanning staff beginning george kennan father containment doctrine first holder office haass occupies another indication way things moving washington haass seems become hawkish mentioned title book using word reluctant reflective period foreign policy seemed secondary sacrificing foreign policy hard case make said written bill clinton saying economy stupidnot world stupid two things different one president much easier time making case foreign policy matters second top nationalsecurity charts notion weapons mass destruction terrorism asked haass whether doctrine emerging broad kennans containment think said youre seeing administration emergence new principle body ideasim sure constitutes doctrineabout might call limits sovereignty sovereignty entails obligations one massacre people another support terrorism way government fails meet obligations forfeits normal advantages sovereignty including right left alone inside territory governments including united states gain right intervene case terrorism even lead right preventive peremptory selfdefense essentially act anticipation grounds think question youre going attacked clearly haass thinking iraq dont think american public needs lot persuading evil saddam hussein said also id fully expect president chief lieutenants make case public opinion changed wed able make case isnt discretionary action one done selfdefense larger issue american role world haass still maintaining distance hawks made speech long called imperial america told big difference imperial imperialist think little bit careful said great advantages still limits allies cant impose ideas everyone dont want fighting wars alone need others join us american leadership yes american unilateralism multilateral cant win war terror alone cant send forces everywhere really collaborative endeavor stopped moment successor idea containment think said idea integration goal us foreign policy persuade major powers sign certain key ideas world operate opposition terrorism weapons mass destruction support free trade democracy markets integration locking policies building institutions lock even first means last obvious manifestation new american foreign policy effort remove saddam hussein united states iraq operation likely dwarf whats done far afghanistan terms scale operation terms aftermath several weeks ago ahmad chalabi head iraqi national congress iraqi opposition party came washington entourage aides chalabi went state department white house ask evidently successfully american funding main public event panel discussion american enterprise institute chalabis leading supporter town richard perle prominent hawk former defense department official acted moderator smiling supremely confident perle opened discussion saying evidence mounting administration looking carefully strategies dealing saddam hussein war terrorism said complete saddam successfully dealt means replacing regime action taken doubt chalabi lives london charming suave middleaged man twinkle eye dressed doublebreasted pinstriped suit striped shirt white spread collar although supporters argue iraqi national congress sufficient american support defeat saddam northern alliance defeated taliban afghanistan view hasnt people washington isnt chalabi doesnt look part rebel military leader could fight last petit four tray tea savoy thats one skeptical former pentagon official told isnt iraq also saddams military perhaps ten times size talibans quite successful putting revolts last decade united states left iraq 1991 believing saddam might soon fall internal rebellion chalabis supporters believe saddam much weaker even signs serious operation offing could finish nontrue believers seem coming around idea military operation saddam would mean deployment anywhere hundred thousand three hundred thousand american ground troops kenneth pollack former cia analyst national security councils staff expert iraq last years clinton administration recently caused stir foreignpolicy world publishing article foreign affairs calling war saddam noteworthy three years ago pollack two coauthors published article also foreign affairs arguing iraqi national congress incapable defeating saddam pollack still doesnt think chalabi job believes would require substantial american ground air sea force closer size one used kuwait 199091 one using afghanistan pollack trim quick crisp obviously man given briefing two day went see office washington little encouragement got behind desk walked office wall three maps middle east hanging way fullscale invasion said using pen pointer talking two grand corps two three hundred thousand people altogether population tigriseuphrates valley pointed area baghdad basra ideally youd saudis board pointed prince sultan airbase near riyadh could make kuwait base much easier saudi need take western iraq southern iraqpointing againbecause otherwise theyll fire scuds israel saudi oil fields probably want prevent iraq blowing oil fields troops occupy need troops defend kurds northern iraq point point go hard fast slapped hand top desk get enemy divide forces threatening two places hand hit desk hard crush smack would reverberating blow united states already removed government one country afghanistan new government obviously shaky american military operations completed pakistan september 11th clearly met new test national unacceptability harbors terrorists weapons mass destruction also require longterm attention since country wholly control government murder daniel pearl demonstrated even parts government like intelligence service may entirely control president iraq america invades brings saddam new government must establishedan enormous longterm task country obvious plausible new leader prospective iraq operation drawn strong objections neighboring nations one russia nuclear superpower invasion would huge effect internal affairs biggest middle eastern nations iran turkey saudi arabia even egypt events forced administration become directly involved israelipalestinian conflict hadnt wanted really entire region play much way europe immediately second world war september bush rejected paul wolfowitzs recommendation immediate moves iraq president seems changed mind indication part bureaucratic skill administrations conservatives guys relentless one former official close high command state department told resistance futile conservatives weapon besides relentlessness intellectualism colin powell tends think case case since september 11th conservatives outflanked producing least beginning coherent hawkish world view whose acceptance practically requires invading iraq united states applies doctrines cheneys old pentagon team shaping expanding zone democracy implications would extend far beyond one operation outside experts middle east credibility administration seem bernard lewis princeton fouad ajami johns hopkins school advanced international studies see arab middle east region need radical remediation lewis invited white house december brief senior foreignpolicy staff one point made look part world nothing matters resolute force senior official lunch told mein words united states neednt proceed gingerly fear inflaming arab street long prepared strong senior official also recommended interesting thinkers middle east charles hill yale recent essay declared every regime arabislamic world proved failure reuel marc gerecht american enterprise institute published article weekly standard need change regime iran syria goals gerecht told spoke could accomplished pressure short invasion several people spoke predicted even nations loudly oppose invasion iraq would privately cheer felt certain time americans really going finish job one purpose vicepresident cheneys recent diplomatic tour region offer assurances matter gamely absorbing public criticism iraq operation event administration appears committed acting forcefully advance worlds approval spoke condoleezza rice said united states assemble coalitions willing support actions rather feel work within existing infrastructure international treaties organizations invasion iraq would test policy ways one administration would betting continue eliminate al qaeda cells countries publicly opposed iraq operation administration submitted budget earlier year asked fortyeightbilliondollar increase defense spending fiscal 2003 begins october 2002 much sum would go improve military pay benefits ten billion dollars designated unspecified contingency fund operations war terrorism thats probably least initial funding invasion iraq spring administration talking countries invasion trying secure basing overflight privileges bush builds rhetorical case giving speeches unacceptability developing weapons mass destruction drama involving weapons inspections iraq play spring summer end united states declaring terms saddam offers inspections involving delays restrictions unacceptable probably late summer early fall enormous troop positioning take months begin administration obviously feels confident united states effectively parry whatever aggressive actions saddam takes troop buildup hopes moves destabilize iraq enough cause republican guard military key country turn saddam topple chain events leading inexorably fullscale american invasion hasnt already begun evidently begin soon lewis scooter libby principal drafter cheneys futureoftheworld documents first bush administration works office old executive office building overlooking west wing second smaller office packet publicrelations material prompted recent paperback publication 1996 novel apprentice quotes times calling dick cheneys dick cheney seems like apt description appears absolutely sure whether coincidence result influence boss speaks tough confidential gravelly rumble like condoleezza rice bush gives impression calmly accepted idea project war reconstruction administration taken may little exhausting charged carrying unquestionably right truly prudent course went see libby long ago asked whether september 11th american policy toward terrorism different went desk got large black looseleaf binder filled typewritten sheets interspersed foldout maps middle east looked long minute formulating answer let us stack said last somalia 1993 1994 discovery al qaedarelated plot philippines 1993 world trade center first bombing 1993 attempt assassinate president bush former president bush lack response lack serious response 1995 riyadh bombing 1996 khobar bombing 1998 kenyan embassy bombing tanzanian embassy bombing 1999 plot launch millennium attacks 2000 bombing cole throughout period infractions inspections iraqis eventually withdrawal entire inspection regime failure respond significantly iraqi incursions kurdish areas one would say challenges posed easy problems take long list ask respond way discouraged people supporting terrorist activities activities clearly interests help shape environment way discouraged aggressions us interests many observers conclude ask whether easier someone like osama bin laden rise say credibly americans dont stomach defend wont take casualties defend interests morally weak libby insisted american response september 11th standard foreordained look president done afghanistan said look speech joint session congressmeaning state union message january made clear important area made clear believe expanding zone democracy even difficult part world made clear stand friends defend interests courage identify states present problem begin build consensus action would need taken change behavior part take afghan case example many courses president could taken could waited juridical proof responded could engaged long negotiations taliban could failed seek new relationship pakistan based past nuclear tests afraid weakening pakistan didnt seek help list could go twice three times length ive mentioned far instead president saw opportunity refashion relations standing interests problem complex dont know yet end opened new prospects relations afghanistan important threat states central asia pakistan russia may develop states southwest asia generally moved iraq question makes saddam hussein unacceptable administrations eyes issue inspections libby said issue iraqis promise weapons mass destruction promise recognize boundaries kuwait promise threaten countries promises made 91 number un resolutions including problems listed whether wise notand subject debateiraq given second chance abide international norms failed take chance annually next ten years whats level confidence asked current regime fact change behavior way satisfied ran hand face gave direct gaze spoke slowly deliberately basis iraqs past behavior confidence goodfaith efforts part change behavior r hettinga internet bearer underwriting corporation 44 farquhar street boston 02131 usa however may deserve respect usefulness antiquity predicting end world found agreeable experience edward gibbon decline fall roman empire tue 24 sep 2002 095215 0400 next world order