martin neil qpnyslagenacouk doug experience area recently completed largeish ama oprisk project south african bank well holding training seminars using bns specifically oprisk also developed variety models part recent research project example oprisk models resulting work available agenarisk software might also interested paper recently appeared risk analysis journal fairly rudimentary paper actually show algorithms used rudimentary operations like convolution continuous variables bn tools easily reference neil fenton n tailor using bayesian networks model expected unexpected operational losses risk analysis journal august 2005 personally im convinced using bns area feasible desirable given paucity data reliance expertbased assertions reliability stability given banks processes usual however devil detail often approach taken oprisk banks take number extremes grudge purchase try crowbar credit risk methods onto problem b collect much data kris kpis near misses etc vain hope data mine exhaustively data remote possibility given big events rare c use extreme value theory simulation methods thus running risk engaging forecasting consequences rather detecting causes improving processes driving looking solely rear view mirror luckily banks break mould want know please get touch go ahead download evaluation version software wwwagenariskcom order run examples best regards martin _______________________________________________________________________ dr martin neil agena ltd 3233 hatton garden londonec1n 8dl 44 020 7404 9722 qpnyslagenacouk wwwagenariskcom 44 07711 956 330 skype martin_neil _______________________________________________________________________ thu 07 aug 2008 013009 0000 subject