rich neapolitan bfjgyyrpxggbneiuedu preparing talk whether people like warren buffet really better investment analysis simply case thousands people analysis probably well poor simply chance possibly different experiment many people toss coin many times experiment probably throw lot heads thinking conceived following paradox suppose stranger named mike showed office told could pick stocks really well advised year made bundle would suspect knew since chance successful chance alone small suppose instead 10000 guys also showed said could pick stocks well case mike still good results would dismiss success probably due luck since 10000 people likely someone well paradox follows faith mike penalized simply people made claims id interested opinions matter rich wed 06 aug 2008 080448 0500 uai luck skill