eugen leitl vnngxleitlorg httpmoneycnncom20071015newseconomycolvin_buyingbingefortuneindexhtm consumer buying binge said many times consumers truly tapped says fortunes geoff colvin fortune magazine geoff colvin fortune senior editoratlarge october 16 2007 926 edt fortune magazine go walk one biggest suckers games whole world economics declaring us consumer tapped desperately hock troubled future finally cant spend like 1999 anymore clear im declaring unless talk end column must nuts one reliable ways look like business dope past several years announce consumer spending party finally every year usually fourth quarter assorted boffins prove beyond doubt us consumers possibly keep spending consumers ignore reports keep right spending anyway question consumer behavior enormously important 70 us economic activity consumer spending companies thus depend buying means valuation us stock market depends also buy many imports almost 2 trillion worth last year plenty foreign economies depend us well easy see everybody wonders us consumers next also easy see kinds analysts figured simply stop spending big long time ago year two back could observe interest rates rising fed kept ratcheting cashout mortgage refinancings declining housing boom looking like bubble real total pay flat credit card debt ballooning personal savings rate gone negative first time since depression sounds alarming doesnt way could expect people maintain high level spending conditions factors seem significant perhaps important people still jobs even total pay wasnt rising much employment growing decently unemployment rate stayed low long consumers paychecks coming remained eager duty mall addition still possible believe housing boom home unless condo miami san diego making richer day consumers feel wealthier feel like spending didnt hurt lenders every street corner throwing bargainrate loans anyone checking account even didnt borrow comforting know could whats new gives confidence make insane prediction factors gone reverse employment picture deteriorating jobless claims rose expected septembers final week unemployment rate month rose slightly reason didnt rise august well says new york university professor nouriel roubini 500000 discouraged workers left labor force show unemployed explains part roubini former economic advisor clinton administration deeply bearish perhaps ominous job situation freefalling real estate market existinghome sales continue decline home prices started sliding little year ago dropping faster measured spcaseshiller home price index millions americans see largest asset becoming less valuable rather valuable wealth effect goes backward consumers used know could always borrow money however appalling finances credit markets faced reality august began pricing risk properly easy money comfortable feeling supports gone add one factor 80abarrel oil winter comes put together surprise conference boards consumer confidence index fallen sharply past two months consumer retrenchment may even already started samestore sales retail chains dropped recent weeks overall retail sales declined real terms walmart charts fortune 500 cut profit forecast august september target charts fortune 500 lowes charts fortune 500 forecast weaker sales havent talked prediction ive talked note im predicting recession though one wouldnt surprise believe evidence powerful incredible may seem us consumers going start living within means brace top page wed 06 aug 2008 173149 0200 fork orly