text_combined: r hettinga rahshipwrightcom demographic transition birthrates lowered increased life expectancy seems happening faster experts anticipated attribute apparently precipitous decline sustainable development twin evils increasing personal freedom economic globalization somebody oughta pass law prevent things course late peoples way life must preserved natural preindustrial state well lose forever cheers rah httpwwwnytimescom20020820scienceearth20popuhtmlpagewantedprintpositiontop new york times august 20 2002 experts scale back estimates world population growth barbara crossette demography never exact science ever since social thinkers began trying predict pace population growth century two ago people counted surprising experts confounding projections today happening stunned demographers watch birthrates plunge ways never expected years ago experts argued economic development education women necessary precursors declines population growth today village women slum families poorest countries beginning prove wrong fertility rates drop faster predicted toward replacement level 21 children average mother one baby replace parent plus fraction compensate unexpected deaths overall population decades ago certain countries like brazil egypt india mexico fertility rates high five six result united nations demographers predicted earths population would peak 12 billion next century two scaling back estimates instead cautiously predict worlds population peak 10 billion 2200 may begin declining experts wary much optimism however population council independent research organization new york dr john bongaarts studied population declines various countries last half century questions assumption fertility declines begin continue go pace especially good family planning services widely available sharp fertility declines many industrialized middleincome countries already challenged another old belief culture religion would thwart efforts cut fertility italy roman catholic country whose big families stuff cinema family size shrinking faster anywhere else europe population aging rapidly fewer children born islamic iran also great success family planning projections arent terribly accurate long haul said dr nicholas eberstadt demography expert american enterprise institute washington demographers surprised every big fertility change modern period demographers didnt anticipate baby boom anticipate subsequent decline fertility industrialized western democracies whats next demographers agree generally measurable facts trends worlds population 62 billion quadrupled 20th century changed drastic ways 1900 86 percent worlds people lived rural areas 14 percent urban areas 2000 urban communities home 47 percent population 53 percent still countryside 2030 global population expected reach eight billion almost growth cities urbanization necessarily bad thing environment said dr joseph chamie director united nations population division moving cities frees land forestry agriculture many activities dr chamie said youre getting people concentrated probably recycle easily people change lifestyles indian moving boonies uttar pradesh city lucknow gets educational opportunities cultural opportunities sorts political participation influenced advertising public relations campaigns immunization better family planning births fall lives extended global population getting older over80 age group fastest growing everywhere example united nations calculates life expectancy birth slashed countries hardest hit aids south africa life baby born 66 years aids cut 47 zimbabwe drop 43 years 69 botswana 36 years 70 another cautionary sign projections populations continuing grow fastest societies governments may least likely cope results including strains natural resources farmland water air forests animals last year organization published report wall chart population environment development plotting analyzing population changes contribution debate surrounding johannesburg summit meeting united nations estimates worlds current population 62 billion growing annual rate slightly 12 percent producing 77 million people growth 97 percent taking place lessdeveloped countries said dr chamie whose position united nations makes chief keeper worlds statistics six nations dominate growth order india china pakistan nigeria bangladesh indonesia thus though fertility declining unexpectedly poor country like india billion people actual numbers continue rise rapidly base large india gaining many people annually china pakistan nigeria combined united nations says india projected least 100 million people china 2050 even chinas onechild policy relaxed small families norm chinese whose standard living risen people india many measures among industrialized countries united states alone growth rate comparable developing nations ranks seventh growth dr chamie said 80 percent growth comes immigration europe populations shrinking even immigration much population bulge predicted asia eastwest center honolulu published report future population asia finds cause fear considerable environmental stress region population densities numbers often great asia report notes already 56 percent worlds population living 31 percent arable land 900 million people exist less 1 day asia faces acute pressure arable agricultural land region world report says adding expansion farmland made cost forests acute water scarcity significant loss biodiversity urban pollution seem inevitable twelve worlds 15 polluted cities asia 2020 report predicts asia producing carbon dioxide emissions region looking current future environmental concerns asia report concludes number people fed clothed housed transported educated employed may issue issue ignored r hettinga internet bearer underwriting corporation 44 farquhar street boston 02131 usa however may deserve respect usefulness antiquity predicting end world found agreeable experience edward gibbon decline fall roman empire httpxentcommailmanlistinfofork tue 20 aug 2002 193615 0400 experts scale back estimates world population growth