text_combined: fw fyi truck vince like send articles fleet card business time like discuss meeting comdata 60 market share fleet card business live data potentially could interesting however like discuss shawn mess statistical data included john schulz 03 26 2001 traffic world page 25 copyright 2001 gale group inc rights reserved copyright 2001 journal commerce inc truckers still waiting signs pent freight demand earnings shortfalls layoffs loom waiting trucking kick start nation economic recovery pull chair wait awhile trucking ceos say seen slow first quarter decade perhaps weakest first quarter freight demand since swift became public company 1990 phoenix based swift transportation chairman ceo jerry moyes said first quarter trucking mantra historically everybody loses money january hopes break even february earns whatever profit quarter march formula may hold year gregory l quesnel president ceo con way transportation services emery worldwide parent cnf inc said current slowdown first detected late third quarter last year become pronounced successive quarter march said disappointing first two months year layoffs already occurring major ltl carriers yellow freight system idled many 1 000 teamsters hundreds white collar back office workers large carriers warning profit shortfalls cause miss analysts first quarter estimates deeper fears marginal players may forced bankruptcy small family owned carriers may unable exit industry terms shocking decline value used trucks causing companies valued less half worth two years ago swift volume drop began shipments originating west coast january february continuing march moyes said coupled reduced demand southwest moyes said swift meet analysts first quarter earnings expectations swift alone hauled less freight february february year ago said bob hammel executive vice president pittsburgh based pitt ohio express leading privately held eastern regional ltl carrier slowdown manufacturing began middle last year precipitous nobody anticipated speed manufacturing demand fell even con way profitable ltl operation past five years said would decline first quarter operating income compared year ago period con way tonnage declines estimated mid single digit percentage range roadway express estimated current tonnage levels running 10 11 percent year ago result approximately one half 1 percent 0 5 percent decline operating ratio see sidebar pat hanley overnite transportation senior vice president chief financial officer said freight figures flat february year year rose slightly march overnite exception ltl industry many 24 new terminals scheduled opened year january pretty good us february flat coming back march probably low single digits 3 4 percent picking back economy hurt us asked us start year said double digits hanley said national economic picture big concern hanley said seeing pressure prices least far seeing customers ship 10 pallets day instead 20 shipment size coming certainly concerned k great like forget consumer confidence surveys producer pricing index whatever stars align federal reserve board chairman alan greenspan world genuine leading indicator national economic trend trucking always first first industry economic slowdown hear trucking industry leaders tell get comfortable beans franks dinner going awhile filet mignon time shippers see happening well say still early year carriers start cutting rates fill empty trucks carriers talk report flat slightly declining business levels definitely slower early last year said bill huie assistant vice president corporate transportation nch corp irving texas couple exceptions carriers talk plans expansion next months getting feelers possible lane adjustments boost revenue generally appears little early economic downturn much price movement national ltl carriers seeing things business pretty substantially first quarter said roger dick spokesman yellow corp parent yellow freight system two large regional ltl carriers jevic transportation delanco n j saia motor freight duluth ga usfreightways corp citing called nation serious economic slowdown said expects first quarter earnings fall substantially current wall street consensus extreme weather conditions also contributed already weakened operating environment usf chairman president ceo samuel k skinner added traditionally first quarter builds momentum slowly march strongest month period skinner said statement year economic slowdown fourth quarter 2000 accelerated january february softening even normal modest expectations two months ltl industry hurting morgan stanley dean witter truckload freight index continues show worst demand supply relationship since analyst james j valentine began tracking data april 1994 two events cause weakness index according valentine either abundance excess trucks road weak freight demand far 2001 seen confluence factors fall demand far outpaced increase supply valentine wrote recent trucking snapshot early march year date measurement truckload demand 25 percent year year according valentine index supply 7 percent would indicate capacity significant issue last year masked strong economy valentine says ominous note valentine believes overcapacity continue plague truckload industry next one two years reaccelerating national economy bring demand supply back balance truckload sector near term valentine predicts overproduction new class 8 trucks early 1998 early last year put many trucks roads caused supply back manufacturers wholesalers retailers used trucks lost average 30 percent value past 18 months anecdotally one used truck dealer music city truck equipment lavergne tenn holding two one sale three five year old class 8 freightliners buy two around 30 000 less brand new chevy suburban suv means trucker bought 1998 class 8 truck 70 000 depreciated half value three years piece equipment books year 35 000 assuming lost 30 percent value may worth 24 500 actuality carrier 100 truck fleet equates loss 1 million assets glut may last according valentine analysis assuming three year trade cycle class 8 tractors truckload sector rolling used truck market means overcapacity plague truckload industry least next year result marginal carriers exiting business nearly 1 900 carriers last year either closed declared bankruptcy see indexes surveys information available us unlikely significant improvement march freight demands continue soft throughout month based factors expect usfreightways profits first quarter substantially less published analysts forecasts skinner said addition severe weather conditions including earthquake seattle rainstorms california blizzards northeast added cost decreased efficiencies skinner added expectations usf operating companies affected others ltl logistics reverse logistics freight forwarding units showing decreased revenue volume similar period last year skinner said job cuts usf worldwide freight forwarder would offing cost controls unit would accelerated wake softening economy skinner said late last year skinner said rebuilding process usf worldwide would two year process worsening economy made rebuilding job harder said seeing evidence slowing economy fact impeding progress area skinner said fourth quarter 2000 continuing first quarter 2001 company taken steps increase cost efficiencies among actions substantial cutback capital spending significant reductions labor force cost control efforts accelerated partially counterbalance damaging impact current economic weather conditions 2000 first quarter usf posted 22 3 million net income 27 percent rise 17 5 million earnings 1999 first quarter time usf 15 th straight quarter quarter earnings increase came 608 2 million revenue 18 5 percent rise 513 2 million revenue 1999 first quarter analysts estimating usf earn 3 50 share earnings 2001 compared actual 3 61 earnings per share last year fourth quarter last year usf earned 23 7 million 91 cents share trucking snapshot market going msdw truckload remains record low territory indicating freight index worst demand supply relationship since msdw began tracking date april 1994 diesel prices diesel prices first quarter 2001 come 6 sequentially 4 qo 0 however average price quarter remains 6 lqo 0 wti oil opec recently agreed reduce supply 5 stated price objective 25 per barrel capacity retail sales class 8 tractors new trucks entering market came january inventory trucks enter market point sales ratio hit new high 3 4 months gdp 4 qo 0 gdp increased 1 1 economists see u recession 2001 0 5 1 4 gdp forecast lqol 2 qol respectively retail sales retail sales rose 0 7 january better forecast upside likely result excessive clearance sales disappointing holiday season consumer conference board measure consumer confidence confidence fell nine points february registering largest one month decline 10 years january 14 points napm february napm rose slightly 41 9 however still indicates contracting manufacturing sector leading index leading economic indicators economic rose 0 8 january indicator msdw forecast 0 6 increase represents first rise four months stock recent pullback trucking stocks remain perfonnance year date tl stocks 5 regional ltl stocks 9 national ltl stocks 13 investor week ended february 28 mutual fund outflows totaled 309 million compared inflows 2 billion prior week market implications msdw truckload negative tl carriers freight index diesel prices downward trend positive carriers especially tl carriers greater exposure fuel ltl carriers wti oil negative carriers 25 per barrel still 25 higher 20 per barrel average since 1990 capacity negative tl carriers major concern ltl carriers measure capacity number terminals gdp negative carriers retail sales negative ti ltl carriers consumer negative carriers confidence napm negative carriers leading positive carriers economic indicator stock positive however stocks could pull perfonnance back short term fundamentals catch investor negative source morgan stanley dean witter research