text_combined: petrochemical forward curves vince find recent email exchanges per discussion sit christian last week talk fundamental econometric approach forward curve construction done agricultural efforts let know vasant stinson would like proceed matter nelson forwarded nelson neale na enron 04 18 2001 08 55 christian lebroc enron enronxgate 04 17 2001 04 41 pm nelson neale na enron enron cc subject petrochemical forward curves please review curve model 2 k file built research years back plastics trading group would like work someone research far building model petrochemical products benz _ curve file done far primitive compare model let know need going forward christian original message neale nelson sent friday april 13 2001 11 28 lebroc christian subject petrochemical forward curves kind crude price volatility proposing use nymex recall find relationship time series price variable one terms placed excel worksheet relationship lagged price either mind please forward data take quick look nelson christian lebroc enron enronxgate 04 12 2001 05 44 pm nelson neale na enron enron cc subject petrochemical forward curves gbm thinking using crude volatility unfortunately supply demand good indicator predicting prices economic complexity processing aromatics statistically relationship utilization supply demand price inserting time lag make number better either christian original message neale nelson sent thursday april 12 2001 5 23 pm lebroc christian subject petrochemical forward curves hi christian mean reversion gbm models assume information related future price may found historical price approach employed ag curves suggests may fundamental information related supply demand impacts also drives future price portion mean reversion process actually captured inclusion lagged prices autoregressive component gbm process requires information price volatility since presumably forward future curve commodity interest difficult come historical volatility values hope helps nelson christian lebroc enron enronxgate 04 12 2001 11 46 nelson neale na enron enron cc subject petrochemical forward curves neslon would like insert mean reversion geometric brownian motion linear forward curve equation put together earlier week please inform assemble request thanks christian original message lebroc christian sent tuesday april 10 2001 2 29 pm neale nelson subject petchem data