text_combined: power curve 5 forward power continues softening implications power curve 5 forward power continues softening implications power curve softened since last analysis power curve 4 may 2 forward expectations 11 15 9 2001 2002 2003 respectively spark spread important measure profit potential declined 18 32 84 respectively shape curve remains backwardated decreasing peak summer softening trend continued since january period every region affected california west showing largest declines power producers favorable commodity pricing environment summer continue expect positive earnings surprises 2 q perhaps 3 q recommendation investors expect near term strength producers keyed strong 2 q expectations recommend shifting portfolio toward energy merchants move summer maintain positive ratings groups stocks given strong near term earnings visibility raymond c niles power natural gas research salomon smith barney 212 816 2807 ray niles ssmb com power curve 5 5 24 01 doc power curve 5 5 24 01 pdf