text_combined:  joe written pal quilkey invite christian werner houston week discuss much research use vince joseph hrgovcic 08 01 2000 06 51 pm vince j kaminski hou ect ect mike roberts hou ect ect cc subject vince inquired christian climate models seems like long term project chiristian says model might able better australian met given ignore variables uses old boy network resistant new developments think said weather services far nws goes run model cray several talented phd working full time even get dozen runs per night words huge system replicating something even close easy task said think related applications could look since already promised rac group weather desk pjm traders put together vector autoregressive model daily temperatures think makes sense see something better var model put together perhaps stripped version kind model christian mind something would give us say several dozens possible temperature forecasts every morning would calculated using actual climate models opposed time series models would use forecasting tool nws model results would make far better best guess ensemble could still used provide distribution temperature scenarios ensemble would several uses 1 could price book ensemble runs thereby obtain realistic daily v r weather book eventually interface power desk v r calculations 2 could use ensemble forecasts relate temperature forecasts week ahead cdd hdd distributions use demand swaps 3 freese notis give us one qualitative forecasts e g expect trough recede could sort different monte carlo scenarions find one trough question receding use corresponding output statistics download actual temperatures corresponding scenario till found good way getting numerical fix different forecasts actually mean temperature wise 4 could use associated visualization routines come models get animations evolution historical weather patterns traders could use order look historical periods roughly match current weather conditions get idea could happen although meteorological models would good simulating month ahead season ahead weather trust could still use visualization technology analogous seasonal animations today spoken dr jacobsen stanford university written one recent textbooks climate forecasting worked ucla general circulation model says getting simplified version mm 5 simplified limited area version gcm models nws cola ucla use would take several months implement assuming people involved already well versed technology also contacted aer massachusetts based weather consulting firm tell mm 5 model running daily one run per night also smaller pc models running course willing work us fee mm 5 version runs 200 000 parallel processor open suggestions objections case may sure costs would apportioned given would benefit enron weather desk scheduled go boston next week anyway would like use opportunity visit aer course coordinate projects christian get something like running likely get computing power needs run australian model joe