text_combined: joseph halpern ppjmcgncscornelledu joe one key points paper judea causality much modeldependent construct bad structural model get bad answers causality may right applications constructing appropriate good causal model may turn hard particuarly important issue choice random variables leave random variable kicking board may bad caussal model unfortunately rather little say validate model particular validate youve chosen right variables interdisciplinary work may well help us work going psychology people like steve sloman dave lagnado testing extent models predict answers given people honest results mixed seems hard describe people models although seem give insight im sure much work could done along lines joe opfulwamitreorg mon jul 17 090543 2006 xmimeole produced microsoft exchange v6572260 contentclass urncontentclassesmessage mimeversion 10 subject structural models necessary may impossible validate date mon 17 jul 2006 090450 0400 xmshasattach xmstnefcorrelator threadtopic structural models necessary may impossible validate threadindex acaoiqapez8as2adq2waieq3qkafwwbez1zw mitola iii joseph joseph halpern cc xoriginalarrivaltime 17 jul 2006 1304510817 utc filetime9733059001c6a9a1 contenttransferencoding 8bit xmimeautoconverted quotedprintable 8bit sundialcscornelledu id k6hd5gv20523 professor halpern im concerned structural model building appropriately suggest something like weather reporting easy get first second order equations right results given case depend strongly initial conditions turn critical features occur fine scale wait computing improve 1000x able predict weather well today eg predict hurricane tracks good still perfect note suggests interdisciplinary research address zadehs examples methods way validated social systems professor zadehs examples entail social systems unlike weather many parameters seem unmeasurable matter fine grid depending inscrutable ways internal psychological processes decision makers eg buying public stock market person extreme stress zadehs clever progression although one retrospectively model phenomena perspective pearls superb mathematical treatment questions observability underlying phenomena seem limit ones ability validate models could used describe also predict engineering predictions least stability versus likely instability sufficiently decisionmaking insights fortune telling social trajectories asimovs foundation withstanding first thing learned random processes johns hopkins probability space must built measurable space least sigmaalgebra defined human psyche may described ways random space far havent seen problem measure aggregation measures sigmaalgebra defined psyche decision support one attributes value game positions doesnt include probability player kick board losses big isnt funny irrelevant really may missing aspect mathematical causality regular lack measurability professor zadehs examples thus lack validated sigma algebra arithmetic 1k easy validate model real world human aspects eg voter fraud harder sociological psychological basis critical 1k meaningful mathematical statistics random process models work well automatic control isolate aircraft meaningfully rest world except air flowing define measurable space air pressure pistons valves electronics thus define fixed point corresponding level flight write algorithms sustain fixed point validated way social sciences like business law dont seem basic measurability basic algebra measures validate agree thus practicality using insights pearls book seems hard come maybe impossible near mid term wonder topic might good realm interdisciplinary research tries quantify significant aspects least sociology psychology causality business law solid ground anecdotal evidence trying build models decision support maybe drawing sociology computer science together seems needed waves twenty year centers met people 50s 60s lived ai hype 80s seems necessary somehow joe dr joseph mitola iii consulting scientist mitre corporation tampa fl 7033145709 views necessarily mitre corporation sponsors thu 07 aug 2008 034248 0400 uai structural models necessary may impossible validate