text_combined: gas prices vince 1 detect hoarding pipeline capacity elevated basis actual inflow 2 detect market power dissociating seller buyer distinguishing physical cost gas run generators transmission cost dollars e basis 3 noted detect storage difference inflow consumption appears two time series needed straightforward model gas prices flow rates interconnects telemetry spot market prices elevated basis reflecting pipeline companies monopolizing capacity well hoarding capacity contracts dynamics gas prices reflect consumption demand changes due changes expectations weather well impact two highly strategic behaviors hoarding pipeline capacity storage gas calibrate price elasticity demands consumption storage price elasticities demand transmission well extent hoarding two sets numbers mentioned flows prices basis trader needs understand incentives disincentives storage capacity hoarding terms calibrated price elasticities exotic call options consumption hub finally flows explained model imputed prices necessary resulting purely stochastic model basis terms weather believe problem quite tractable would like proceed model clayton