text_combined: summary judge recommendation retroactive refunds commenting general perception settlement conference chief judge home manner miss opportunity say take horse water make drink cliff notes version judge report recommendation issued 4 49 pm today attached complete work judge opined large refunds would due amount refunds 8 9 billion claimed state california amount hundreds millions dollars probably billion dollars aggregate sum time vast sums due overcharges even larger amounts owed energy sellers caiso investor owned utilities state california cash refund required much larger amount due seller chief judge thinks another notable quote opinion chief judge amount claimed state california substantiated judge noted submitted proposal july 5 summarily rejected state california five separate offers various industry groups settle california also rejected refund effective date refund effective date october 2 2000 sales spot markets caiso cal px chief judge recommendations go beyond date spot market sales sales 24 hours less entered day day prior delivery evidentiary hearing differences state california believes buyers california markets owed refunds sellers california market believe refunded raise material issues fact appropriate numbers calculate potential refunds involve factual disputes thus chief judge recommends trial type evidentiary hearing ordered limited factual record apply methodology set forth urgent need answer refund issues hearing 60 day fast track schedule important single methodology adopted calculating potential refunds proceeding however methodology may appropriate sellers caiso cal px spot markets fact refund calculation event sellers using methodology bear burden demonstrating costs exceeded results methodology recommended herein entire refund period methodology chief judge recommends methodology set forth june 19 th order used modifications discussed order calculate potential refunds may due customers caiso cal px spot energy ancillary service markets period october 2 2000 may 28 2001 heat rate actual heat rates rather hypothetical heat rates associated recreating must bid requirement june 19 th order provide first step calculating cost marginal unit gas cost gas costs associated marginal unit based upon daily spot gas price event marginal unit located npl 5 north path 15 daily spot gas price pg e citygate malin averaged resulting gas price multiplied marginal unit heat rate calculate clearing price hour marginal unit located spl 5 south path 15 daily spot gas price southern california gas large packages multiplied marginal unit heat rate calculate clearing price hour daily spot gas prices midpoint published financial times energy gas daily publication aforementioned delivery points last published gas prices used calculating refund price days gas daily published weekends holidays adder adder 6 mwh also included calculated market clearing price emissions costs demonstrable emission costs excluded market clearing price treated additional expense sellers may subtract respective refund calculation credit adder 10 percent adder included market clearing price transactions occurred january 5 2001 pg e socal edison deemed longer creditworthy ancillary services consistent june 19 th order ancillary service prices would capped market clearing price established real time imbalance energy market adjustment bids would also treated set forth june 19 th order maximum price non emergency hours somewhat unclear chief judge recommends purposes recreating competitive market calculating refunds refund methodology deviate 85 non emergency requirement june 19 th order measure amount actual prices may exceeded refund price every hour recalculated offsets recalculating hourly competitive price purposes refund calculation would also permit cal px caiso resettle charges refund period amounts owed sellers outstanding amounts due buyers would recalculated refunds could offset accurate amounts receivable without sellers netting purchases caiso cal px refund period interest interest charged refund amounts unless refund amount exceeds amounts past due seller