text_combined: projected fund giving george one statistical method linear regression applied hosanna fund giving method deterministic contributions sunday attempted explained significant events church members calendars method shoudl considered contrast anecdotal one sunday giving might estimated average giving sunday e g 2 nd sunday january past following effects estimated independently computer add subtract accordingly sundays one effect play 1 positive giving additional 8 802 special pastoral appeals 3 past 3 years 2 positive giving additional 2 551 easter nearest christmas sunday additional 59 thanksgiving sunday tiny additional 1 week pure time trend 3 negative giving 304 sundays monday federal holiday weekends 9 summer june 1 aug 31 4 wave 80 per week wave giving 80 higher one week 80 lower next etc computer explain roughly 60 absolute variation giving past 3 years using approach keep mind much information statistically captured pastoral appeals easter christmas sundays holiday weekends rest variation explained simple model e looks like noise predictions fund giving upcoming year cut paste numbers file spreadsheet like may seem boring please remember deterministic components process involves lot volatility church actual experience predictably volatile numbers means experiences dependent standard deviations 01 02 00 4611 01 09 00 4699 01 16 00 4394 01 23 00 4705 01 30 00 4701 02 06 00 4702 02 13 00 4703 02 20 00 4400 02 27 00 4710 03 05 00 4706 03 12 00 4708 03 19 00 4709 03 26 00 4710 04 02 00 4711 04 09 00 4712 04 16 00 4713 04 23 00 7265 04 30 00 4672 05 07 00 4717 05 14 00 4718 05 21 00 4719 05 28 00 4416 06 04 00 4717 06 11 00 4713 06 18 00 4714 06 25 00 4715 07 02 00 4716 07 09 00 4718 07 16 00 4719 07 23 00 4720 07 30 00 4721 08 06 00 4722 08 13 00 4723 08 20 00 4724 08 27 00 4725 09 03 00 4432 09 10 00 4742 09 17 00 4738 09 24 00 4739 10 01 00 4740 10 08 00 4742 10 15 00 4743 10 22 00 4744 10 29 00 4745 11 05 00 4746 11 12 00 4747 11 19 00 4748 11 26 00 4808 12 03 00 4750 12 10 00 4752 12 17 00 4753 12 24 00 7305 12 31 00 4711 best wishes clayton vernon manager research