text_combined: fw western energy winter demand peaks expected result price spikes reliability problems cera monthly briefing note following cera analysis speaks california western markets also attaching presentation found northwest power planning council insightful hydro predictions see reports title one tight winter peak remains western energy winter demand peaks expected result price spikes reliability problems building natural gas power supplies providing cushion western energy markets winter although seasonal gas power demand spikes push prices higher winter look like winter 2000 01 unlike record high gas power prices blackouts last year winter reduced demand increased gas storage levels new gas power supplies significantly temper prices significantly reduce risk supply disruptions supply build 300 million cubic feet mmcf per day rockies 900 mmcf western canada meeting declining demand west fourth quarter power demand expected 13 percent levels last year 5 000 megawatts new supply added year severe cold weather prolonged drought supply disruption could produce reliability problem winter end