text_combined: monthly briefing shoulder month without shoulder prices cera alert september forecast forwarded lorna brennan et enron 08 23 2000 06 52 webmaster cera com 08 22 2000 10 28 10 pm lorna brennan enron com cc subject monthly briefing shoulder month without shoulder prices cera alert cera alert sent tue august 22 2000 title monthly briefing shoulder month without shoulder prices author zenker snyder moritzburke e mail category alert product line western energy url http www cera com cfm track eprofile cfm u 5526 total imports 5 8 bcf per day eclipsed previous high 300 million cubic feet mmcf per day see table 6 pipeline capacity state month ran 83 percent utilization far august pipeline capacity utilization exceeding even high rate running 85 percent high rates capacity utilization putting pressure gas prices southern california pressure continue september total demand california expected decline somewhat september continued strong power loads low seasonal hydroelectric generation provide support total demand state average 6 6 bcf per day slightly august total 6 8 bcf per day flows state august september likely change significantly price pressure decline somewhat demand topock differential henry hub average approximately 0 50 per mmbtu september see table 7 storage inventories west still healthy relative levels rest united states storage surplus region eroded california inventories running lower last year deficit state looks likely widen september end injection season storage inventories determine vulnerability topock differentials winter price spikes pacific northwest malin prices summer shown neither strong premiums topock prices shown wide discounts supplies rocky mountains san juan basins shown far month prices malin averaging 0 25 per mmbtu discount henry hub pipeline capacity region rocky mountains running nearly full flows pgt alberta averaged nearly 2 2 bcf per day month export capacity region pge gt nw running close capacity pipeline constraints south combined strong california demand driving wide malin topock differentials continuing strong demand south likely keep topock prices strong wide north south differentials within west likely hold september pacific northwest demand expected climb september 1 5 bcf per day 1 4 bcf per day august demand level keep malin differentials widening current levels september cera expects malin prices average 0 10 per mmbtu henry hub price southwest prices san juan basin summer left behind rising california demand although westward pull supplies strong bottlenecks california san juan led disconnects san juan prices topock prices pipeline capacity utilization rates transwestern northern leg el paso reached 93 percent july less 200 mmcf per day excess pipeline capacity increased flows rockies transcolorado northwest contributing downward pressure san juan basin supply general san juan followed rocky mountain prices rather following prices topock permian basin unlike past two summers bottleneck allowed power demand west coast support san juan prices relative permian prices differential san juan permian averaged 0 50 per mmbtu far month 0 30 per mmbtu since june additional imports rockies san juan increased supply 200 mmcf per day relative last summer higher flows fully explain disconnect without much change southwestern rocky mountains local demand san juan continue price wide discount september san juan henry hub differential expected average 0 60 per mmbtu rockies differentials narrow substantially october rocky mountains downward pressures rocky mountain prices intensified past month utilization rates pipelines region continued climb record heat power generation levels done little boost gas demand within region generation still largely coal based demand impact gas additional load minimal cera expects heavy discount current rocky mountain henry hub differentials around 0 90 per mmbtu persist september local area demand expected change september substantial gain local demand comes october heating loads october demand average 1 4 bcf per day august september averages around 1 2 bcf per day although winter heating season relieve pipeline pressures rockies winter differentials expected stay 0 25 0 40 per mmbtu range strong storage inventories limit connection broader north american markets summer next summer pressures rockies supplies likely intensify relative summer although pipeline expansion projects announced trailblazer williams announced expansion plans summer new capacity online relieve constraints next summer cera expects supplies within rocky mountains increase 300 mmcf per day next year western canada widening us 1 50 per mmbtu aeco henry differential begun narrow somewhat maintenance restricted flows largely responsible jump 0 84 per mmbtu july current supply able fill contracted pipe capacity incremental volumes pay full cost flow differentials likely persist mid us 0 70 per mmbtu september aeco expected us 3 25 per mmbtu c 4 53 per gigajoule september even start alliance project contract nonrenewal transcanada likely continue two tiered pricing dynamics contracted versus uncontracted pipeline costs result differentials range us 0 60 us 0 75 per mmbtu throughout winter supply build western canada continues languish behind last year levels pace drilling 9 000 gas wells expected year provide growth fourth quarter 2001 supply expected flat 1999 annual basis year least 350 mmcf per day 2001 sumas prices quite volatile driven weather pacific northwest maintenance westcoast system september sumas expected slightly stable price modest premium aeco us 0 05 per mmbtu end follow url pdf version monthly briefing associated graphic tables cera autumn 2000 roundtable event dates agendas available http www cera com event account changes edit personal account information including e mail address etc go http eprofile cera com cfm edit account cfm electronic message attachments contain information cambridge energy research 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