text_combined: r hettinga rahshipwrightcom little tidbit still believe science opinion poll cheers rah httpwwwtechcentralstationcom1051printerjspcid1051072302b ask experts sallie baliunas willie soon 07232002 2001 national science foundation surveyed 1500 people nationwide found 77 believed increased carbon dioxide gases released atmosphere unchecked lead global warming yet half polled believed humans dinosaurs coexisted earth despite scientific fact dinosaurs went extinct tens millions years earliest hominids appeared worse 22 respondents understood molecule example carbon dioxide case belief many dinosaurs early humans coexisted public opinion change actual facts material world poll measures nothing degree public ignorance scientific matters people get news stories science technology developments television decade fed whatif stories global warming human activities wonder people believe global warming occur however anxiety scale 33 worry great deal global warming worry ranks 12 13 environmental concerns top environmental fear shared 64 polled polluted drinking water know concerning latest understanding humanmade global warming three points know science 1 surface record temperature thermometers show widespread warming 20th century compared 19th one period warming early 20th century second 1970s ecosystems responded widespread warmth seen since ca 800 1200 ce cause global surface warming associated human activity without additional information media reports point ecosystem responses 20th century warmth eg mountain glacier retreat unjustifiably claim responses owe manmade causes mountain glaciers receded past period warmth around 1000 years ago advanced unusual cold little ice age ca 1300 1900 ce climate shifts occurred naturally increased concentration humanmade greenhouse gases air computer simulations climate say order conclude surface global warming trend human caused surface warmth must accompanied equal larger warming trend air one five miles height measurements made satellites verified weather balloons show meaningful humanmade warming trend last two even four decades thus recent warming trend surface temperature record caused increase humanmade greenhouse gases air computer simulations reliable tools explaining past climate making projections future trends future shock scenarios comes future scenarios consider experts actually say potential climate change united nations intergovernmental panel climate change writes special report emissions scenarios 2000 scenarios images future alternative futures neither predictions forecasts possibility single emissions path occur described scenario highly uncertain finally judgement offered report preference scenarios assigned probabilities occurrence neither must interpreted policy recommendations forecasting future societal conditions energy use often amount little unconvincing guesses jesse ausebel rockefeller university april 2002 critiqued un ipccs 40 energy scenarios decarbonization carbonization sloping every way probabilities attached confession collectively know nothing science underlies craft politics strongly bias projections nonetheless guess worlds energy future forms first step making 100year prediction global warming first uncertain forecast future energy use used input climate simulation surely compounds uncertainty next step climate forecast inability predict future surprising climate simulations upon predictions based yield unreliable results outlined results incompatible measurements climate changed last decades complete speculation may 24 1994 richard lindzen alfred p sloan professor meteorology mit testified senate committee energy natural resources claims catastrophic consequences significant global warming occur almost completely speculative without theoretical foundations frequently involved assuming opposite appears happen despite years solid work climate specialists output computer simulations remains undependable owing extraordinary complexity natural world thus may 1 2001 lindzen testified senate commerce committee longstanding inability computer simulations deliver results resemble reality even cases good measurements available example widespread agreement among climate scientists large computer climate models unable even simulate major features past climate 100 thousand year cycles ice ages dominated climate past 700 thousand years warm climates miocene 23 5 million years ago eocene 57 35 million years ago cretaceous 146 65 million years ago neither well accounting shorter period less dramatic phenomena like el ninos quasibiennial oscillations intraseasonal oscillations well documented data important contributors natural variability lindzen explained failure computer simulations simply may 2000 point making fallacious assumption models everything display somehow rest technical uncertainty things literally dont punctuates popular notion averaging output computer results somehow miraculously give scientifically appropriate result think locally top unreliable forecasts global warming rest highly uncertain forecasts future economic social conditions unvalidated climate simulations come forecasts local impacts order make case relevancy people increased storminess one prediction outcome humanmade global warming found popular media would people learn issue idea storminess increases humanmade global warming defies expert opinion david legates expert hydrology researcher testified senate committee environment public works march 13 2002 ascertaining anthropogenic changes extreme weather events nearly impossible climate models even begin simulate stormscale systems let alone model full range yeartoyear variability clearly claims anthropogenic global warming lead occurrences droughts floods storms wildly exaggerated un ipcc third assessment report concurs currently insufficient information assess recent trends climate models currently lack spatial detail required make confident projections example smallscale phenomena thunderstorms tornadoes hail lightning simulated climate models summary policymakers p 15 group extremely relevant experts american association state climatologists recently summarized state climate simulations climate prediction complex many uncertainties time scales decade understanding empirical accuracy predictions called verification simply impossible since wait decade longer assess accuracy forecasts climate predictions demonstrated skill projecting future variability changes important climate conditions growing season drought floodproducing rainfall heat waves tropical cyclones winter storms type events significant impact society annual average global temperature trends facts humanmade global warming one believe television experts r hettinga internet bearer underwriting corporation 44 farquhar street boston 02131 usa however may deserve respect usefulness antiquity predicting end world found agreeable experience edward gibbon decline fall roman empire 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