n 0.67 0.45 0.75 – p 1.07 1.0 1.4 – c 1.78E-05 1.00E-6 3.16E-4 – q 1.96 >1.8 d (km) 0.79 >0.63 k ((years)^(p-1)) 2.84E-03 3.79E-4 4.97E-3 – The best-fit p-value is 1.07, with values in the range 1.0–1.4 having log-likelihoods within 5 percent of the maximum log-likelihood (over a reasonable range of values for the other parameters). The best-fit p-value is lower than the preferred p=1.37 of Felzer and others (2003) for California, but the range encompasses this value. (This direct p-value describes only the direct aftershocks, as distinct from the apparent p-value for a full aftershock sequence including secondary triggering.) The preferred c-value is about 10 minutes, and values ranging from about30 seconds to about 3 hours have log-likelihoods within 5 percent, with large c-values associated with large p-values. This range of c-values is reasonable if we assume that c represents detection limitations during the early part of an aftershock sequence (for example, Enescu and others, 2009). The spatial parameters q and d are more poorly constrained and trade off with each other, as shown in figure S3d. The maximum likelihood values are q=1.96 and d=0.79 km. Minimum values of q=1.8 and d=0.63 km have log-likelihoods within 5 percent of the maximum log-likelihood. However, the upper limits of both parameters are not bounded by the grid search, which considered values as high as d=10 km and q=5.4, which are unreasonably large values. The best-fit value of q is consistent with the previously observed range of q between 1.3 and 2.1 (Felzer and Brodsky, 2006; Felzer and Kilb, 2009; Marsan and Lengliné, 2010), and the best-fit value of d is on the order of the earthquake location
n 0.67 0.45 – 0.75 p 1.07 1.0 – 1.4 c 1.78E-05 1.00E-6 – 3.16E-4 q 1.96 >1.8 d (km) 0.79 >0.63 k ((years)^(p-1)) 2.84E-03 3.79E-4 – 4.97E-3 The best-fit p-value is 1.07, with values in the range 1.0–1.4 having log-likelihoods within 5 percent of the maximum log-likelihood (over a reasonable range of values for the other parameters). The best-fit p-value is lower than the preferred p=1.37 of Felzer and others (2003) for California, but the range encompasses this value. (This direct p-value describes only the direct aftershocks, as distinct from the apparent p-value for a full aftershock sequence including secondary triggering.) The preferred c-value is about 10 minutes, and values ranging from about30 seconds to about 3 hours have log-likelihoods within 5 percent, with large c-values associated with large p-values. This range of c-values is reasonable if we assume that c represents detection limitations during the early part of an aftershock sequence (for example, Enescu and others, 2009). The spatial parameters q and d are more poorly constrained and trade off with each other, as shown in figure S3d. The maximum likelihood values are q=1.96 and d=0.79 km. Minimum values of q=1.8 and d=0.63 km have log-likelihoods within 5 percent of the maximum log-likelihood. However, the upper limits of both parameters are not bounded by the grid search, which considered values as high as d=10 km and q=5.4, which are unreasonably large values. The best-fit value of q is consistent with the previously observed range of q between 1.3 and 2.1 (Felzer and Brodsky, 2006; Felzer and Kilb, 2009; Marsan and Lengliné, 2010), and the best-fit value of d is on the order of the earthquake location
AppendixS.docx