10. Main features of time series models for shorebirds in Victorian sites overall, showing the number of inflection points (according to the best supported model), the years when the trend lines changed (mean values), the gradients of trend lines for each segment of the graph (presented as % change per year) and whether they differed significantly from zero (* if p<0.05). Species Model type No. of Mean years Gradient Gradient Gradient or guild inflection of inflection for segment 1 for segment 2 for segment 3 points Migratory shorebirds All migrants SARIMA 0 –6.8% Common Greenshank SARIMA 0 * –3.0% Curlew Sandpiper ARIMA 0 –18.7% Red-necked Stint SARIMA 2 2004, 2006 (*) 3.6% –1.2% –33.6% Sharp-tailed Sandpiper SARIMA 0 –47.1% Australasian shorebirds All Australasian SARIMA 0 2.5% Aust. Pied Oystercatcher ARIMA 0 2.8% Black-winged Stilt SARIMA 2 2006, 2007 79% * –16.3% –17.4% Masked Lapwing SARIMA 0 –0.6% Red-capped Plover SARIMA 2 2007, 2010 44.3% ** –8.9% –16.5% Red-necked Avocet SARIMA 0 –35.6%
10. Main features of time series models for shorebirds in Victorian sites overall, showing the number of inflection points (according to the best supported model), the years when the trend lines changed (mean values), the gradients of trend lines for each segment of the graph (presented as % change per year) and whether they differed significantly from zero (* if p<0.05). Species or guild Model type No. of inflection points Mean years of inflection Gradient for segment 1 Gradient for segment 2 Gradient for segment 3 Migratory shorebirds All migrants SARIMA 0 –6.8% Common Greenshank SARIMA 0 –3.0% * Curlew Sandpiper ARIMA 0 –18.7% Red-necked Stint SARIMA 2 2004, 2006 –1.2% –33.6% (*) 3.6% Sharp-tailed Sandpiper SARIMA 0 –47.1% Australasian shorebirds All Australasian SARIMA 0 2.5% Aust. Pied Oystercatcher ARIMA 0 2.8% Black-winged Stilt SARIMA 2 2006, 2007 –16.3% 79% * –17.4% Masked Lapwing SARIMA 0 –0.6% Red-capped Plover SARIMA 2 2007, 2010 –8.9% 44.3% ** –16.5% Red-necked Avocet SARIMA 0 –35.6%
ARI-Technical-Report-256-Waterbird-monitoring-at-the-Western-Treatment-Plant-2000-12.docx