Medium Access to black sea Net Romania -3.3 Exporter No new capacity announced, Net exporter Medium Net Hungary 0 New TVK capacity on-stream from 2015 Exporter onwards Low Net Czech Republic 4 Importer Fluctuates between importer and exporter Low Net Poland 31.9 If bio-based plant is realized, the trade status Importer of country from will switch to net exporter. Low Net France 246 Major consumer of Dutch and German Importer butadiene Low Net Belgium 107 consumer of Dutch and German Importer butadiene Medium Europe Net Germany -162 Major exporter Exporter Expensive logistics Western Medium Net Netherland -348 Major exporter Exporter Expensive logistics Low Net Will become a major alternative exporter to USA 233 Exporter compete with Western Europe USA Very expensive logistics Source: Jacobs Consultancy Ltd. Forecasts Methodology Introduction Jacobs Consultancy’s forecasting methodology involves the development of cash production costs at each stage of the production chain from crude oil to downstream product. This cash cost of production, combined with a forecast of return on investment at each stage, gives a forecast of long run marginal costs. This reflects the minimum price over the cycle at which producers will continue to invest in new capacity. The production process is broken into the following key steps: Conversion of crude oil in the refinery into hydrocarbon feeds for the fuels and petrochemical sectors The production of olefins (principally ethylene and propylene) and aromatics The conversion of olefins and aromatics into petrochemical derivatives.
Romania -3.3 Net Exporter Medium Access to black sea No new capacity announced, Net exporter Hungary 0 Net Exporter Medium New TVK capacity on-stream from 2015 onwards Czech Republic 4 Net Importer Low Fluctuates between importer and exporter Poland 31.9 Net Importer Low If bio-based plant is realized, the trade status of country from will switch to net exporter. Western Europe France 246 Net Importer Low Major consumer of Dutch and German butadiene Belgium 107 Net Importer Low consumer of Dutch and German butadiene Germany -162 Net Exporter Medium Major exporter Expensive logistics Netherland -348 Net Exporter Medium Major exporter Expensive logistics USA USA 233 Net Exporter Low Will become a major alternative exporter to compete with Western Europe Very expensive logistics Source: Jacobs Consultancy Ltd. Forecasts Methodology Introduction Jacobs Consultancy’s forecasting methodology involves the development of cash production costs at each stage of the production chain from crude oil to downstream product. This cash cost of production, combined with a forecast of return on investment at each stage, gives a forecast of long run marginal costs. This reflects the minimum price over the cycle at which producers will continue to invest in new capacity. The production process is broken into the following key steps: Conversion of crude oil in the refinery into hydrocarbon feeds for the fuels and petrochemical sectors The production of olefins (principally ethylene and propylene) and aromatics The conversion of olefins and aromatics into petrochemical derivatives.
Assessment0of00cal0plant0operation.docx