final count can still lie within the initial 95% prediction interval. This may be due to a wide prediction interval related to the initial estimate and encompassing the final count. Review quarters The tab labelled quarters’ in the dashboard provides an overview of quarters are reviewed ‘Review for different contract statuses (commencements and completions, and cancellations/withdrawals and and how these are determined. Quarters to be reviewed for all states and territories, for Collection 93 After each collection, the estimates review dashboard will be updated with the latest quarter’s data to enable a review of the most recent quarters possible. For commencements and completions, we require three collections/quarters of data for a final count to emerge for a certain quarter after an initial estimate was reported. For cancellations/withdrawals and in-training, we require seven collections/quarters of data for a final count to emerge for a certain quarter after an initial estimate was reported. The commencements and completions example above shows a set of review quarters (December 2015 to September 2016) and which collections NCVER uses to calculate the initial, first revision and second revision estimates, and the quarter in which the subsequent final count emerge. For example, the first time NCVER receives data relating to the December 2015 quarter is in Collection 86, but NCVER does not report on this data. The first time we report on the December 2015 data is in the next quarter, March 2016, after having received the Collection 87 data. An initial estimate is published for the December 2015 quarter. Note that the December 2015 activity is reported in the March 2016 quarter. The initial estimate then gets revised over the next two collections (Collections 88 and 89), before the final count emerges from Collection 90 and gets reported in the December 2016 quarter. Therefore, we can review the initial and first revision estimates from quarters December 2015 to September 2016, since the final counts for these quarters have been published, with Collection 93 containing the final count for September 2016 quarter. Likewise, for cancellations/withdrawals and in-training, we can review the initial and first revision estimates from quarters December 2014 to September 2015.
final count can still lie within the initial 95% prediction interval. This may be due to a wide prediction interval related to the initial estimate and encompassing the final count. Review quarters The tab labelled ‘Review quarters’ in the dashboard provides an overview of quarters are reviewed for different contract statuses (commencements and completions, and cancellations/withdrawals and and how these are determined. Quarters to be reviewed for all states and territories, for Collection 93 After each collection, the estimates review dashboard will be updated with the latest quarter’s data to enable a review of the most recent quarters possible. For commencements and completions, we require three collections/quarters of data for a final count to emerge for a certain quarter after an initial estimate was reported. For cancellations/withdrawals and in-training, we require seven collections/quarters of data for a final count to emerge for a certain quarter after an initial estimate was reported. The commencements and completions example above shows a set of review quarters (December 2015 to September 2016) and which collections NCVER uses to calculate the initial, first revision and second revision estimates, and the quarter in which the subsequent final count emerge. For example, the first time NCVER receives data relating to the December 2015 quarter is in Collection 86, but NCVER does not report on this data. The first time we report on the December 2015 data is in the next quarter, March 2016, after having received the Collection 87 data. An initial estimate is published for the December 2015 quarter. Note that the December 2015 activity is reported in the March 2016 quarter. The initial estimate then gets revised over the next two collections (Collections 88 and 89), before the final count emerges from Collection 90 and gets reported in the December 2016 quarter. Therefore, we can review the initial and first revision estimates from quarters December 2015 to September 2016, since the final counts for these quarters have been published, with Collection 93 containing the final count for September 2016 quarter. Likewise, for cancellations/withdrawals and in-training, we can review the initial and first revision estimates from quarters December 2014 to September 2015.
A_guide_to_the_apprentices_and_trainees_estimates_review_dashboard.docx