Details of the metrics calculations can be found in section 9.6. Comparison After processing the data, calibrating the model, running a simulation, and calculating metrics, the last step in the workflow is to compare the simulated performance measures with actual observed measurements: Figure 416: Comparing simulated and observed measurements The comparison followed these steps: The AMS team selected 21 days from March to May of 2014 that mimics the baseline situation being modeled. Of these 21 days, the team used data from 15 days from March and April in the calibration and simulation process. This was the Calibration Data Set. The simulated flow was then compared to measured flow (from loop data) from the 6 days in May (the Validation Data Set), according to the FHWA model calibration criteria. Technically, making comparisons this way prevents over-fitting data to the model. Intuitively, if one imagines that the current time is the end of April, data from the past (March and April) can be used to calibrate the model. The goal is to predict future traffic status. Flow comparison: Figure 417 the comparison of the flows. Loop measurements are available at many locations on Huntington and its side streets. Their average flows are shown as the red bars. The average of the simulated flows are shown as the blue bars. A visual inspection shows that the simulated flows are close to the measured flows: Figure 417: Comparison of simulated against real measurements
Details of the metrics calculations can be found in section 9.6. Comparison After processing the data, calibrating the model, running a simulation, and calculating metrics, the last step in the workflow is to compare the simulated performance measures with actual observed measurements: Figure 416: Comparing simulated and observed measurements The comparison followed these steps: The AMS team selected 21 days from March to May of 2014 that mimics the baseline situation being modeled. Of these 21 days, the team used data from 15 days from March and April in the calibration and simulation process. This was the Calibration Data Set. The simulated flow was then compared to measured flow (from loop data) from the 6 days in May (the Validation Data Set), according to the FHWA model calibration criteria. Technically, making comparisons this way prevents over-fitting data to the model. Intuitively, if one imagines that the current time is the end of April, data from the past (March and April) can be used to calibrate the model. The goal is to predict future traffic status. Flow comparison: Figure 417 the comparison of the flows. Loop measurements are available at many locations on Huntington and its side streets. Their average flows are shown as the red bars. The average of the simulated flows are shown as the blue bars. A visual inspection shows that the simulated flows are close to the measured flows: Figure 417: Comparison of simulated against real measurements
ams_phase_1_report_-_version_2.docx