Age at exposure We assumed the following average ages at first exposure: Wave 1 & 2: 38 of age in 1921 decreasing to 33 years in 1950 and to 18 years in 1961 and later years. Occupational post-2003: 29 for all periods. Wave 3 Domestic: 30 years of age for all periods. The age of the exposed population at exposure is assumed to be different for each wave, based on the profile of each group. This leads to different average life expectancies after exposure. This affects lifetime rates of mesothelioma incidence. People in the wave 1 & 2 group first exposed in the 1920s are assumed to have an average age at first exposure reflecting the average age of the entire working population at the time. This is because asbestos was not widely used and was being introduced to incumbent workers. The average age of those first exposed during the 1950s and 1960s is likely to be lower. We assume that younger people entering the workforce are the main group who were first exposed to asbestos during this time. Asbestos use became widespread after the Second World War, so most workers using asbestos at any point in this period would have been first exposed when they left school or higher education and started working. For non-occupational wave 1 & 2 exposures we assume a broadly similar age profile for wives and partners. Our distribution of ages allows for some exposure for children (e.g. dusty families) and the elderly (e.g. residents living in asbestos towns and near industry). Wave 3 Domestic and Occupational post-2003 exposures are assumed to be similar. People employed in asbestos removal or completing home renovations are assumed to be mostly of working age. Mortality rates We used standard male mortality rates, with the following adjustments: The key risk segments in wave 1 & 2 are blue collar workers. To accommodate this we added a mortality loading of 30% on standard mortality rates at younger ages, decreasing to a nil loading at older ages. We assumed 0.5% per mortality improvements in the past and future. We made reductions to the male mortality to approximately allow for the proportion of women in these groups. Female mortality rates are consistently lower than male rates. The reductions were: Wave 1 & 2 and Wave 3 Occupational: 2% Wave 3 Domestic: 5%
Age at exposure We assumed the following average ages at first exposure: Wave 1 & 2: 38 of age in 1921 decreasing to 33 years in 1950 and to 18 years in 1961 and later years. Occupational post-2003: 29 for all periods. Wave 3 Domestic: 30 years of age for all periods. The age of the exposed population at exposure is assumed to be different for each wave, based on the profile of each group. This leads to different average life expectancies after exposure. This affects lifetime rates of mesothelioma incidence. People in the wave 1 & 2 group first exposed in the 1920s are assumed to have an average age at first exposure reflecting the average age of the entire working population at the time. This is because asbestos was not widely used and was being introduced to incumbent workers. The average age of those first exposed during the 1950s and 1960s is likely to be lower. We assume that younger people entering the workforce are the main group who were first exposed to asbestos during this time. Asbestos use became widespread after the Second World War, so most workers using asbestos at any point in this period would have been first exposed when they left school or higher education and started working. For non-occupational wave 1 & 2 exposures we assume a broadly similar age profile for wives and partners. Our distribution of ages allows for some exposure for children (e.g. dusty families) and the elderly (e.g. residents living in asbestos towns and near industry). Wave 3 Domestic and Occupational post-2003 exposures are assumed to be similar. People employed in asbestos removal or completing home renovations are assumed to be mostly of working age. Mortality rates We used standard male mortality rates, with the following adjustments: The key risk segments in wave 1 & 2 are blue collar workers. To accommodate this we added a mortality loading of 30% on standard mortality rates at younger ages, decreasing to a nil loading at older ages. We assumed 0.5% per mortality improvements in the past and future. We made reductions to the male mortality to approximately allow for the proportion of women in these groups. Female mortality rates are consistently lower than male rates. The reductions were: Wave 1 & 2 and Wave 3 Occupational: 2% Wave 3 Domestic: 5%
ASEA_Aust_Meso_Projection_final_ACC.docx