Probability of The RAG considered a recommended Tier 1 assessment, Tier 4 biological catch (RBC) assessment, and catch (or other levels of history in a weight of catch) causing a decline evidence approach to below limit reference recommend an RBC. under proposed These indicated that there management was a low risk of the stock Species that follow a HS declining below the limit rule that has been MSE reference point. Over the tested will have a “very last five years catch and unlikely” score in this discards have remained section (i.e. P<10%). below the RBC. Alternative Catch Scenarios = N/A TAC and catch trends Assessment Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Tier 1 Rollover 2nd year 3rd year of Tier /rollover (Tier 4 Tier 1 Tier 1 of 2011 of 3 year a 3 year /MYTAC used to set Tier 4 assessment MYTAC CTS TAC) Tier 1 – 43% Tier 1 Tier 4 Rollover (CTS) Tier 4 - Not Not Stock Status 78% of 2011 Above the CPUE assessed assessed assessment limit (no between discards) the target and above and limit the target (discards) 2017/18 Fishing Year 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 (CTS area) 200 (T1) 676 (T1) 139 (T4) RBC (t) 613 613 247 (T4) 247 (T4) 346 (T4) 423 (T4 discards) Agreed TAC (SET 141 199 199 183 247 only) Actual TAC 147 211 217 200 261 overs/unders % TAC caught 37 35 33 41 Tier Level & Discounts
Probability of recommended biological catch (RBC) (or other levels of catch) causing a decline below limit reference under proposed management Species that follow a HS rule that has been MSE tested will have a “very unlikely” score in this section (i.e. P<10%). The RAG considered a Tier 1 assessment, Tier 4 assessment, and catch history in a weight of evidence approach to recommend an RBC. These indicated that there was a low risk of the stock declining below the limit reference point. Over the last five years catch and discards have remained below the RBC. Alternative Catch Scenarios = N/A TAC and catch trends Assessment Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Tier /rollover /MYTAC Tier 1 Rollover of 2011 assessment Tier 1 (Tier 4 used to set CTS TAC) 2nd year of 3 year MYTAC 3rd year of a 3 year Tier 1 Tier 4 Stock Status 78% Rollover of 2011 assessment Tier 1 Tier 4 - CPUE between the target and limit Not assessed Not assessed Tier 1 – 43% Tier 4 (CTS) Above the limit (no discards) and above the target (discards) Fishing Year 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 (CTS area) RBC (t) 613 613 676 (T1) 346 (T4) 247 (T4) 247 (T4) 200 (T1) 139 (T4) 423 (T4 discards) Agreed TAC (SET only) 141 199 199 183 247 Actual TAC overs/unders 147 211 217 200 261 % TAC caught 37 35 33 41 Tier Level & Discounts
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