ACTIVITY 4: the concept of 95% confidence” “Developing Use the Module” in iNZight: Import the whole population of KareKare College data. “Coverage Initially use a sample of size 25. repeat, then then One 20, 1000. Ask students to raise their hand when they see a red line-it will help reinforce the idea that a confidence interval can miss the true parameter, but not often. Note: The iNZight module may not show exactly 95% coverage. Both the population and sample are very small in this simulation. ACTIVITY 5 Developing the of thumb” for estimating a margin of error. “rule Repeat the coverage module with a sample size of n=100 Margin of error halves to 10%. Return to the bootstrapping module: Import the n=500 censusatschool sample (the variable of interest is still and motor). Obtain “travel” the confidence interval from 1000 re-samples. The CI has a length of 9% and so the margin of error is 4.5% Hence demonstrate: =0.2=20%, =0.1=10%, =0.045=4.5% and hence the of thumb” for estimating a margin of error. “rule . divided on NZ-US exercises”. Verify that = 3.65% is a Return to the media article “Opinion good estimate of the reported margin of error. (note: you can now also see that the 850 below the graphic is an error). ACTIVITY 6
ACTIVITY 4: “Developing the concept of 95% confidence” Use the “Coverage Module” in iNZight: Import the whole population of KareKare College data. Initially use a sample of size 25. One repeat, then 20, then 1000. Ask students to raise their hand when they see a red line-it will help reinforce the idea that a confidence interval can miss the true parameter, but not often. Note: The iNZight module may not show exactly 95% coverage. Both the population and sample are very small in this simulation. ACTIVITY 5 Developing the “rule of thumb” for estimating a margin of error. Repeat the coverage module with a sample size of n=100 Margin of error halves to 10%. Return to the bootstrapping module: Import the n=500 censusatschool sample (the variable of interest is still “travel” and motor). Obtain the confidence interval from 1000 re-samples. The CI has a length of 9% and so the margin of error is 4.5% Hence demonstrate: =0.2=20%, =0.1=10%, =0.045=4.5% and hence the “rule of thumb” for estimating a margin of error. Return to the media article . “Opinion divided on NZ-US exercises”. Verify that = 3.65% is a good estimate of the reported margin of error. (note: you can now also see that the 850 below the graphic is an error). ACTIVITY 6
AS-3.12-Margin-of-Error-Lesson-Plans-pg7-amended.docx