Coarse grains James Fell The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf) is forecast to rise by 16 per cent in 2012–13 to average around US$325 a tonne. This forecast rise in price reflects an expected fall in the supply of coarse grains, particularly corn, in major exporting countries. Over recent months, very dry conditions in some major northern hemisphere coarse grains growing regions adversely affected 2012–13 northern hemisphere crops. A repeat of these dry conditions during the planting window for the 2013–14 crops is an upside risk to the current price forecasts for coarse grains. Additionally, corn planting for the 2012–13 season is yet to be completed in Latin America and any significant deviation from average seasonal conditions during the planting and growth period has the potential to markedly affect world price movements in the short term. The world barley indicator price (France feed barley, fob Rouen) is forecast to rise by 15 per cent in 2012–13 to around US$310 a tonne, largely reflecting lower barley production in the Black Sea exporting countries and a rise in price of substitute coarse grains, such as corn. Lower world production in 2012–13 World coarse grains production is forecast to fall by around 4 per cent in 2012–13 to around 1.1 billion tonnes, mainly because of an expected fall in corn production in the United States. Corn accounts for around three-quarters of global coarse grains production, of which the US corn crop accounts for nearly 30 per cent. World barley production is also forecast to fall modestly.
Coarse grains James Fell The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf) is forecast to rise by 16 per cent in 2012–13 to average around US$325 a tonne. This forecast rise in price reflects an expected fall in the supply of coarse grains, particularly corn, in major exporting countries. Over recent months, very dry conditions in some major northern hemisphere coarse grains growing regions adversely affected 2012–13 northern hemisphere crops. A repeat of these dry conditions during the planting window for the 2013–14 crops is an upside risk to the current price forecasts for coarse grains. Additionally, corn planting for the 2012–13 season is yet to be completed in Latin America and any significant deviation from average seasonal conditions during the planting and growth period has the potential to markedly affect world price movements in the short term. The world barley indicator price (France feed barley, fob Rouen) is forecast to rise by 15 per cent in 2012–13 to around US$310 a tonne, largely reflecting lower barley production in the Black Sea exporting countries and a rise in price of substitute coarse grains, such as corn. Lower world production in 2012–13 World coarse grains production is forecast to fall by around 4 per cent in 2012–13 to around 1.1 billion tonnes, mainly because of an expected fall in corn production in the United States. Corn accounts for around three-quarters of global coarse grains production, of which the US corn crop accounts for nearly 30 per cent. World barley production is also forecast to fall modestly.
A096_AgCommodities2012.Vol2.No4_Ver1.0.0.docx