work. These assumptions limit the flexibility offered by the simulation, providing constraints on the number of options available, the settings provided for each option, and the resulting preferences a participant can express. For example, participants were unable to select biofuel ‘no production’ as a setting, since this was not available in the simulation. These limitations need to be considered when interpreting any findings from this research. Table 1 Possible settings for supply sliders – Supply Setting 1 Setting 2 Setting 3 Setting 4 Biofuel We use bioenergy We use bioenergy We use bioenergy We use bioenergy production crops grown in the crops grown in the crops covering an covering an UK covering an area UK covering an area area the size of area twice the size half the size of half the size of Wales in the UK and of Wales and the Wales Wales and an area another area the same again half the size of size of Wales overseas Wales overseas overseas Oil, gas and coal Fossil fuel supplies Fossil fuel supplies Half as much fossil Fossil fuel supplies power increase by more in 2050 fall by 25% fuel supplies as in 2050 are only than 25% in 2050 of supplied in 2050 10% of those from today, many of today supplied today which will be imported Nuclear power No nuclear power in Four as much Nine times as much Thirteen times as 2050 nuclear power as nuclear power as much nuclear today in 2050, today in 2050, power as today in comparable to comparable to 2050, comparable building 13 large building 30 large to building 50 large nuclear power nuclear power nuclear power stations stations stations coal and No clean coal and Around 30 gas and Around 45 gas and Around 70 gas and gas power gas stations beyond coal stations store coal stations filter coal stations filter UK demonstration their carbon - and store their and store their programme. Carbon equivalent to carbon. Coal and carbon capture and storage today’s gas and coal gas industry underground. Coal does not work at stations. produces over 50% and gas industry scale. more power than over double the size today. of today.
work. These assumptions limit the flexibility offered by the simulation, providing constraints on the number of options available, the settings provided for each option, and the resulting preferences a participant can express. For example, participants were unable to select ‘no biofuel production’ as a setting, since this was not available in the simulation. These limitations need to be considered when interpreting any findings from this research. Table 1 – Possible settings for supply sliders Supply Setting 1 Setting 2 Setting 3 Setting 4 Biofuel production We use bioenergy crops grown in the UK covering an area half the size of Wales We use bioenergy crops grown in the UK covering an area half the size of Wales and an area half the size of Wales overseas We use bioenergy crops covering an area the size of Wales in the UK and another area the size of Wales overseas We use bioenergy covering an area twice the size of Wales and the same again overseas Oil, gas and coal power Fossil fuel supplies increase by more than 25% in 2050 from today, many of which will be imported Fossil fuel supplies in 2050 fall by 25% of supplied today Half as much fossil fuel supplies as in 2050 Fossil fuel supplies in 2050 are only 10% of those supplied today Nuclear power No nuclear power in 2050 Four as much nuclear power as today in 2050, comparable to building 13 large nuclear power stations Nine times as much nuclear power as today in 2050, comparable to building 30 large nuclear power stations Thirteen times as much nuclear power as today in 2050, comparable to building 50 large nuclear power stations coal and gas power No clean coal and gas stations beyond UK demonstration programme. Carbon capture and storage does not work at scale. Around 30 gas and coal stations store their carbon - equivalent to today’s gas and coal stations. Around 45 gas and coal stations filter and store their carbon. Coal and gas industry produces over 50% more power than today. Around 70 gas and coal stations filter and store their carbon underground. Coal and gas industry over double the size of today.
Allen%20and%20Chatterton%20my2050%20paper%20(Version%20for%20resubmission%20190713).docx