13. Independent 2,506 MW 820 MW Factors in SCE’s and SDG&E’s service Energy (including However, area drive uncertainty in forecasting, Producers the Track 1 if which can result in under-estimating need (IEP) solicitation of and threatening grid, include (1) net load 1,400-1,800 does not forecasts in local resources are subject to MW). If full approve significant uncertainty because of energy 1,800 MW the Pio Pico reduction and uncertainty as to demand; from Track 1 (2) slow economic recovery could is procured, then accelerate increasing demand; (3) some then Track 4 resource preferred resources may not prove viable authorization need skewing load forecasts; (4) new and should be 706 would upgraded transmission may be delayed. MW (2,506 – increase to (at 12-14) 1,800) 1,118 MW (at 30) (820 + While over-capacity might result in 298). slightly higher costs, under-capacity (p. 30) would come with a very high social cost. (at 15) Track 4 authorization should be based on total resource need in Track 4 studies. (PHC Comments, at 2.) 14. National SCE’s local SDG&E’s Reductions justified because energy Resources capacity need local efficiency assumptions were substantially Defense for LA Basin capacity underestimated. (at 13) Council should be need (NRDC) reduced by should be Further reductions may be justified from 543 MW reduced by inclusion of CAISO’s 2012/2013 under either 211 MW as transmission plan results and the CEC’s CAISO or compared 2013 managed demand forecast results. SCE models. to (Testimony, at 9; Comments, at 2) (at 13) SDG&E’s model results or 342 MW as compared to CAISO’s modeling results. (at 13)
13. Independent Energy Producers (IEP) 2,506 MW (including the Track 1 solicitation of 1,400-1,800 MW). If full 1,800 MW from Track 1 is procured, then Track 4 authorization should be 706 MW (2,506 – 1,800) (at 30) 820 MW However, if does not approve the Pio Pico then resource need would increase to 1,118 MW (820 + 298). (p. 30) Factors in SCE’s and SDG&E’s service area drive uncertainty in forecasting, which can result in under-estimating need and threatening grid, include (1) net load forecasts in local resources are subject to significant uncertainty because of energy reduction and uncertainty as to demand; (2) slow economic recovery could accelerate increasing demand; (3) some preferred resources may not prove viable skewing load forecasts; (4) new and upgraded transmission may be delayed. (at 12-14) While over-capacity might result in slightly higher costs, under-capacity would come with a very high social cost. (at 15) Track 4 authorization should be based on total resource need in Track 4 studies. (PHC Comments, at 2.) 14. National Resources Defense Council (NRDC) SCE’s local capacity need for LA Basin should be reduced by 543 MW under either CAISO or SCE models. (at 13) SDG&E’s local capacity need should be reduced by 211 MW as compared to SDG&E’s model results or 342 MW as compared to CAISO’s modeling results. (at 13) Reductions justified because energy efficiency assumptions were substantially underestimated. (at 13) Further reductions may be justified from inclusion of CAISO’s 2012/2013 transmission plan results and the CEC’s 2013 managed demand forecast results. (Testimony, at 9; Comments, at 2)
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