accounting for economic conditions such as income and electricity prices projections of customer numbers by tariff class, and post adjustments for block loads and embedded generation. Powercor’s revised regulatory proposal sets out that the following aspects of its maximum demand forecast were updated from the initial proposal: Powercor engaged CIE to update its top-down forecast for actual 2014–15 summer demand. The CIE used the same GSP and retail electricity price as AEMO’s 2015 state-wide demand forecasts information on demand drivers economic consultant, Oakley Greenwood updated forecasts of the impact of disruptive technologies such as electric vehicles and battery storage on maximum demand information on block loads Powercor’s internal bottom-up forecast for more recent demand data and local information, and reconciliation of the top-down and bottom-up forecasts. Powercor engaged the Cambridge Economic Policy Associates (CEPA) to assess both its and AEMO’s connection point forecasts against the requirements of the NER and the AER’s forecasting principles. The CEPA considered Powercor’s demand forecast meets the requirements of the NER better than AEMO’s forecast. Demand analysis Our step in examining Powercor's forecast of maximum demand is to look at whether the forecast is consistent with, or explained by, long term demand trends and changes in the electricity markets. As set out below, we consider that Powercor’s revised demand forecast is consistent with the underlying historical demand trend since 2006. We have examined Powercor’s actual demand trend using weather adjusted historical demand. Weather adjustment of actual demand data removes the effect of random weather factors on observed electricity demand. Using AEMO’s actual weather adjusted demand data for Powercor, it can be seen that the actual underlying demand trend has been growing fairly consistently over the past 10 years and has only mildly flattened out in recent years. This trend can be seen in Figure 6.11. Powercor’s revised forecasts include strong growth over 2016–20, but they are generally consistent with the underlying historical demand trends. While growth in rooftop solar and energy efficiency has contributed to reduced electricity drawn from the grid, this has not significantly dampened maximum demand growth on Powercor’s network. Powercor attributes forecasts of strong demand growth to forecasts of faster demand growth in specific areas of its network. This is driven by forecast population growth in
accounting for economic conditions such as income and electricity prices projections of customer numbers by tariff class, and post adjustments for block loads and embedded generation. Powercor’s revised regulatory proposal sets out that the following aspects of its maximum demand forecast were updated from the initial proposal: Powercor engaged CIE to update its top-down forecast for actual 2014–15 summer demand. The CIE used the same GSP and retail electricity price as AEMO’s 2015 state-wide demand forecasts information on demand drivers economic consultant, Oakley Greenwood updated forecasts of the impact of disruptive technologies such as electric vehicles and battery storage on maximum demand information on block loads Powercor’s internal bottom-up forecast for more recent demand data and local information, and reconciliation of the top-down and bottom-up forecasts. Powercor engaged the Cambridge Economic Policy Associates (CEPA) to assess both its and AEMO’s connection point forecasts against the requirements of the NER and the AER’s forecasting principles. The CEPA considered Powercor’s demand forecast meets the requirements of the NER better than AEMO’s forecast. Demand analysis Our step in examining Powercor's forecast of maximum demand is to look at whether the forecast is consistent with, or explained by, long term demand trends and changes in the electricity markets. As set out below, we consider that Powercor’s revised demand forecast is consistent with the underlying historical demand trend since 2006. We have examined Powercor’s actual demand trend using weather adjusted historical demand. Weather adjustment of actual demand data removes the effect of random weather factors on observed electricity demand. Using AEMO’s actual weather adjusted demand data for Powercor, it can be seen that the actual underlying demand trend has been growing fairly consistently over the past 10 years and has only mildly flattened out in recent years. This trend can be seen in Figure 6.11. Powercor’s revised forecasts include strong growth over 2016–20, but they are generally consistent with the underlying historical demand trends. While growth in rooftop solar and energy efficiency has contributed to reduced electricity drawn from the grid, this has not significantly dampened maximum demand growth on Powercor’s network. Powercor attributes forecasts of strong demand growth to forecasts of faster demand growth in specific areas of its network. This is driven by forecast population growth in
AER%20-%20Final%20decision%20Powercor%20distribution%20determination%20-%20Attachment%206%20-%20Capital%20expenditure%20-%20May%202016.DOCX