Before the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, Victoria had experienced ten years of very strong growth in A view of future demand will vary government’s container demand of about 7 per cent on average. depending on whether it is forecasting demand in a high After 2008, the rate of growth of container demand or low growth environment. Figure 5 shows how demand was much less, and has remained at a lower rate of forecasts would have looked had the trade continued on about 1–2 per cent on average. For a government, the the basis of the high growth up to 2007, as well as the decision it would have made regarding investment in low growth post- 2008, and our central, high and low new port capacity in early 2007 would be very different forecasts. from the decision it may have made in early 2009. This stark difference between the extreme high and low scenarios show why it is important to balance the impact of outlier demand movements in the long-run demand forecasts. Our demand forecasting has done Figure 5. Extreme high and low this. scenarios for container trade demand Source: Prepared by Deloitte for Infrastructure Victoria, 2017 Which technical reports should I look at for more information? Deloitte, Infrastructure Victoria Second Container Port Advice container trade forecasts for Victoria, 2017
Before the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, Victoria had experienced ten years of very strong growth in container demand of about 7 per cent on average. After 2008, the rate of growth of container demand was much less, and has remained at a lower rate of about 1–2 per cent on average. For a government, the decision it would have made regarding investment in new port capacity in early 2007 would be very different from the decision it may have made in early 2009. Figure 5. Extreme high and low scenarios for container trade demand A government’s view of future demand will vary depending on whether it is forecasting demand in a high or low growth environment. Figure 5 shows how demand forecasts would have looked had the trade continued on the basis of the high growth up to 2007, as well as the low growth post- 2008, and our central, high and low forecasts. This stark difference between the extreme high and low scenarios show why it is important to balance the impact of outlier demand movements in the long-run demand forecasts. Our demand forecasting has done this. Source: Prepared by Deloitte for Infrastructure Victoria, 2017 Which technical reports should I look at for more information? Deloitte, Infrastructure Victoria Second Container Port Advice container trade forecasts for Victoria, 2017
Advice_on_securing_Victorias_ports_-_accessible_version_-_FINAL.docx