Table 9. Landscape 2 Climate Stressors, Climate Risks, Impacts and Potential Adaptive Responses for Lake Mburo Conservation Area and – Surrounding Communities INDIRECT IMPACTS INDIRECT IMPACTS POTENTIAL CLIMATE DIRECT IMPACTS TO TO LIVELIHOODS TO BIODIVERSITY CLIMATE RISKS ADAPTIVE FROM BIODIVERSITY FROM LIVELIHOOD STRESSORS BIODIVERSITY RESPONSES IMPACTS IMPACTS Responses to As droughts biodiversity impacts: intensify, rainfall Integrate PA fire patterns change and management temperatures planning into increase, the needs of GMPs to address fire substantial and Reduced pasture for threats. increasing grazers. populations Train PA staff in fire Decreased quality surrounding the management/ conservation area controlled burning. of tourism experience Higher temperatures will compel these and revenue. Wildlife Responses to populations to livelihoods impacts: could move to more Destruction of increase the cutting favorable areas to Support tourism vegetation; of trees within the access food and infrastructure additionally, Droughts conservation area, water, which could development at regeneration of accelerate draining of be across the border alternative sites, such vegetation will be wetlands surrounding to Tanzania, to Increased incidence and as at conservancies. slower due to the the conservation area agricultural fields or spread of fires due Strengthen Severe dry spells increased length of for conversion to to swamps, thus to hotter, drier conditions. institutional and dry periods. farmland and making the LMNP technical capacities Animal mortality. increase poaching less attractive to of conservancies. Relocation of wildlife within the tourists. The African Wildlife Erratic rains beyond the PA conservation area, Reduced PA Foundation boundaries, perhaps exacerbating resources for Biodiversity Project only temporarily. biodiversity impacts community use. Plant has made progress, noted in the “Direct but continued support resources that Impacts to is needed for these communities rely on Biodiversity” nascent institutions. and that are found in column. Support the PA could be domestication/onfarm destroyed. production of resources used by communities.
Table 9. Landscape 2 – Climate Stressors, Climate Risks, Impacts and Potential Adaptive Responses for Lake Mburo Conservation Area and Surrounding Communities CLIMATE STRESSORS CLIMATE RISKS DIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY INDIRECT IMPACTS TO LIVELIHOODS FROM BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS INDIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY FROM LIVELIHOOD IMPACTS POTENTIAL ADAPTIVE RESPONSES Higher temperatures Droughts Severe dry spells Erratic rains Increased incidence and spread of fires due to hotter, drier conditions. Destruction of vegetation; additionally, regeneration of vegetation will be slower due to the increased length of dry periods. Animal mortality. Relocation of wildlife beyond the PA boundaries, perhaps only temporarily. Reduced pasture for grazers. Decreased quality of tourism experience and revenue. Wildlife could move to more favorable areas to access food and water, which could be across the border to Tanzania, to agricultural fields or to swamps, thus making the LMNP less attractive to tourists. Reduced PA resources for community use. Plant resources that communities rely on and that are found in the PA could be destroyed. As droughts intensify, rainfall patterns change and temperatures increase, the needs of substantial and increasing populations surrounding the conservation area will compel these populations to increase the cutting of trees within the conservation area, accelerate draining of wetlands surrounding the conservation area for conversion to farmland and increase poaching within the conservation area, exacerbating biodiversity impacts noted in the “Direct Impacts to Biodiversity” column. Responses to biodiversity impacts: Integrate PA fire management planning into GMPs to address fire threats. Train PA staff in fire management/ controlled burning. Responses to livelihoods impacts: Support tourism infrastructure development at alternative sites, such as at conservancies. Strengthen institutional and technical capacities of conservancies. The African Wildlife Foundation Biodiversity Project has made progress, but continued support is needed for these nascent institutions. Support domestication/onfarm production of resources used by communities.
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