be maintained with the retirement and/or non-relicensing of some or all of these units? The acutely heightened uncertainty surrounding the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station (SONGS) requires particular focus on understanding the long term planning implications of the state’s nuclear fleet. This sensitivity was developed to explore the implications of a key nuclear relicensing and retirement possibility facing the Commission. The Early SONGS Retirement sensitivity departs from the Base Scenario by applying the mid assumption, with SONGS retired on January 1, 2015 and Diablo Canyon retired at relicensing in 2024 (Unit 1) and 2025 (Unit 2). Note that in no way does this sensitivity intend to pre-judge Commission action on nuclear retirements; instead it seeks to inform Commission decision making in this area. How to Get There: The Early SONGS Retirement Sensitivity requires a policy change to realize the near-term retirement of SONGS in 2015, and Diablo Canyon upon the expiration of its license in 2024/2025. Stress Peak Sensitivity This sensitivity is closely linked to both the Base Scenario and the Replicating Transmission Planning Process (TPP) Scenario. The Stress Peak sensitivity is identical to the Base Scenario, with one exception: it assumes a 1-in-5 peak weather year, as opposed to the Base Scenario’s 1-in-2 peak weather year. Unlike the Replicating TPP Scenario, the Stress Peak sensitivity includes the impacts of various demand side programs as well as a business as usual expectation of demand response programs. By creating a hybrid of these two scenarios, this sensitivity aims to capture a future with relatively higher peak loads and thus, increased system stress. How to Get There: Just as with the Base Scenario, the Stress Peak Sensitivity requires no change to the business as usual trajectory. All current policies are
be maintained with the retirement and/or non-relicensing of some or all of these units? The acutely heightened uncertainty surrounding the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station (SONGS) requires particular focus on understanding the long term planning implications of the state’s nuclear fleet. This sensitivity was developed to explore the implications of a key nuclear relicensing and retirement possibility facing the Commission. The Early SONGS Retirement sensitivity departs from the Base Scenario by applying the mid assumption, with SONGS retired on January 1, 2015 and Diablo Canyon retired at relicensing in 2024 (Unit 1) and 2025 (Unit 2). Note that in no way does this sensitivity intend to pre-judge Commission action on nuclear retirements; instead it seeks to inform Commission decision making in this area. How to Get There: The Early SONGS Retirement Sensitivity requires a policy change to realize the near-term retirement of SONGS in 2015, and Diablo Canyon upon the expiration of its license in 2024/2025. Stress Peak Sensitivity This sensitivity is closely linked to both the Base Scenario and the Replicating Transmission Planning Process (TPP) Scenario. The Stress Peak sensitivity is identical to the Base Scenario, with one exception: it assumes a 1-in-5 peak weather year, as opposed to the Base Scenario’s 1-in-2 peak weather year. Unlike the Replicating TPP Scenario, the Stress Peak sensitivity includes the impacts of various demand side programs as well as a business as usual expectation of demand response programs. By creating a hybrid of these two scenarios, this sensitivity aims to capture a future with relatively higher peak loads and thus, increased system stress. How to Get There: Just as with the Base Scenario, the Stress Peak Sensitivity requires no change to the business as usual trajectory. All current policies are
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