Source: Odyssee-Mure Figure 43: Variation industry consumption - European Union - Mtoe (2005-2014) Source: Odyssee-Mure Figure 44: Variation transport consumption - European Union - Mtoe (2005-2014) Source: Odyssee-Mure Figure 45: Variation power sector consumption - European Union - Mtoe (2005-2014) Source: Odyssee-Mure Figure 46: Variation agriculture consumption - European Union - Mtoe (2005-2014) Source: Odyssee-Mure Annex –Analytical approach used for Articles 7 and 9-11 Analytical approach for Article 7 The quantitative estimates of the amount of energy savings expected from implementation of the measures (in the existing period 2014-2020) and estimates for the new period starting from 2021-2030 if Article 7 is extended were based on a bottom-up spreadsheet-based model developed by the contractor Ricardo AEA/ CE Delft under a specific contract. A brief description of the methodology is outlined below. Calculation of the baseline scenario - Article 7 expires post 2020 This analysis is based on the notified savings (cumulative amount of 250.3 Mtoe by 2020) from the policy measures that Member States have planned in order to fulfil their Article 7 energy savings requirement by 2020. The analysis is based on the notified annual savings per policy measure and the assigned lifetimes during which they will deliver energy savings based on CEN-values, as the savings notified by the Member States at the policy measure level contained actions with different lifetimes, which were not split per specific type of these energy saving actions. The data notified by the Member States enabled an attribution of only 57% of the savings to one of the four lifetime categories: with relative contributions of 27% long, 51% medium long, 10% medium and 11% short lifetimes (see Figure 47). Figure 47: Distribution of notified annual savings in 2020 per lifetime categories Source: Ricardo AEA/ CE Delft
Source: Odyssee-Mure Figure 43: Variation industry consumption - European Union - Mtoe (2005-2014) Source: Odyssee-Mure Figure 44: Variation transport consumption - European Union - Mtoe (2005-2014) Source: Odyssee-Mure Figure 45: Variation power sector consumption - European Union - Mtoe (2005-2014) Source: Odyssee-Mure Figure 46: Variation agriculture consumption - European Union - Mtoe (2005-2014) Source: Odyssee-Mure Annex –Analytical approach used for Articles 7 and 9-11 Analytical approach for Article 7 The quantitative estimates of the amount of energy savings expected from implementation of the measures (in the existing period 2014-2020) and estimates for the new period starting from 2021-2030 if Article 7 is extended were based on a bottom-up spreadsheet-based model developed by the contractor Ricardo AEA/ CE Delft under a specific contract. A brief description of the methodology is outlined below. Calculation of the baseline scenario - Article 7 expires post 2020 This analysis is based on the notified savings (cumulative amount of 250.3 Mtoe by 2020) from the policy measures that Member States have planned in order to fulfil their Article 7 energy savings requirement by 2020. The analysis is based on the notified annual savings per policy measure and the assigned lifetimes during which they will deliver energy savings based on CEN-values, as the savings notified by the Member States at the policy measure level contained actions with different lifetimes, which were not split per specific type of these energy saving actions. The data notified by the Member States enabled an attribution of only 57% of the savings to one of the four lifetime categories: with relative contributions of 27% long, 51% medium long, 10% medium and 11% short lifetimes (see Figure 47). Figure 47: Distribution of notified annual savings in 2020 per lifetime categories Source: Ricardo AEA/ CE Delft
2463761_EN_impact_assessment_part2_v6.docx