Table 2: Key Results for All Gas Sensitivity Cases 2022 Low-Low Gas Low High High-High Gas Input or Result Common Sensitivity Gas Gas Sensitivity Case Henry Hub NG Ave 2.26 4.07 5.43 9.50 18.76 Price ($/mmBTU) Variable Production 9,055 12,596 14,851 21,321 35,465 Cost (M$) Coal-fired Gen (Ann 150,523 260,155 267,320 270,433 272,160 GWh) Combined Cycle Gen 271,386 168,684 156,646 147,042 142,438 (Ann GWh) Biomass Gen (Ann 5,698 8,627 13,573 19,202 20,757 GWh) CO2 Emissions 302 354 359 363 364 (mmTons) The CO2 emissions do not vary significantly from case to case until the gas price is low enough for gas generation to have a similar production cost as coal generation. This appears to occur when the gas price is somewhere between $2.26/mmBTU and $4.07/mmBTU, as illustrated in Figure 16. Figure 16: Generation Results for Gas Price Sensitivities Low-Low Sensitivity (Henry Hub price of $2.26/MMBtu) The change in annual energy by type of generation for the Low-Low Sensitivity study is shown in Figure 17. It highlights the shift from coal-fired generation to gas-fired generation as the production cost of these two resources becomes equivalent. Figure 17: Energy Comparison for Low-Low Gas price The change in annual generation by state/province is provided in Figure 18, which shows that the increase in gas-fired generation is again most significant in California. The switch from generation to gas-fired generation (combined cycle and combustion turbine) is also evident. Figure 18: Generation Change in Low-Low Gas by State/Province High-High Sensitivity (Henry Hub price of $18.76/MMBtu) The change in annual energy by type of generation for the High-High Sensitivity is shown in Figure 19. It highlights the shift from gas-fired generation to biomass and coal-fired generation. Figure 19: Generation difference for High-High gas
Table 2: Key Results for All Gas Sensitivity Cases Input or Result Low-Low Gas Sensitivity Low Gas 2022 Common Case High Gas High-High Gas Sensitivity Henry Hub NG Ave Price ($/mmBTU) 2.26 4.07 5.43 9.50 18.76 Variable Production Cost (M$) 9,055 12,596 14,851 21,321 35,465 Coal-fired Gen (Ann GWh) 150,523 260,155 267,320 270,433 272,160 Combined Cycle Gen (Ann GWh) 271,386 168,684 156,646 147,042 142,438 Biomass Gen (Ann GWh) 5,698 8,627 13,573 19,202 20,757 CO2 Emissions (mmTons) 302 354 359 363 364 The CO2 emissions do not vary significantly from case to case until the gas price is low enough for gas generation to have a similar production cost as coal generation. This appears to occur when the gas price is somewhere between $2.26/mmBTU and $4.07/mmBTU, as illustrated in Figure 16. Figure 16: Generation Results for Gas Price Sensitivities Low-Low Sensitivity (Henry Hub price of $2.26/MMBtu) The change in annual energy by type of generation for the Low-Low Sensitivity study is shown in Figure 17. It highlights the shift from coal-fired generation to gas-fired generation as the production cost of these two resources becomes equivalent. Figure 17: Energy Comparison for Low-Low Gas price The change in annual generation by state/province is provided in Figure 18, which shows that the increase in gas-fired generation is again most significant in California. The switch from generation to gas-fired generation (combined cycle and combustion turbine) is also evident. Figure 18: Generation Change in Low-Low Gas by State/Province High-High Sensitivity (Henry Hub price of $18.76/MMBtu) The change in annual energy by type of generation for the High-High Sensitivity is shown in Figure 19. It highlights the shift from gas-fired generation to biomass and coal-fired generation. Figure 19: Generation difference for High-High gas
2022PC1-3+4_GasPriceSensitivity_StudyReport_2011SP.docx