A robust economy drives technological advancement and economies of scale resulting in a greater potential for demand response, energy efficiency, and distributed generation as well as lower capital cost for renewables. Thermal generation retirements in the market are driven by unit age-limits and announced retirements (consistent with business as usual). Company-owned resource retirements are defined by the utility. Retirements of all coal units except the most efficient in the fleet should be considered. Retirement of older fuel oil fired utility’s – generation should also be considered in this scenario. Specific new generating units are modeled if under construction or with regulatory approval (CON, signed GIA) as well as generic new resources (market and consistent with scenario optimizations. Tax credits continue pursuant to current law. Technology costs for thermal units remain stable and escalate at low to moderate escalation rates. Technology costs for EWR and demand response programs will be determined by their respective potential studies. Total resource limits for EWR and demand response programs are raised by the lesser of: 25% from their achievable level or the 50% of their economic level of potential as identified by their potential studies. Technology costs for battery storage resources decline over time. Emerging Technologies Sensitivities: Fuel cost projections Identify risk of significant upward variability of fuel price projections. Load projections Identify risk of higher than expected upward variability of energy and peak demand projections. EWR potential study maximum achievable potential. Transportation energy: Adoption of electric cars could increase demand. Large electric users: Reduced load due to customers adding combined heat and power (CHP), batteries, behind the meter generation (btmg) to offset the high electric rates. Scenario 3. Environmental Policy (Applicability: Utilities located in MISO Zone 7) Carbon regulations targeting a 30% reduction (by mass for existing and new sources) from 2005 to 2030 across all aggregated unit outputs are enacted, driving some coal retirements and an increase in natural gas reliance. Increased renewable additions are driven by renewable portfolio standards and goals, economics, and business practices to meet carbon regulations. Demand and energy growth rates are modeled at a level equivalent to a 50/50 forecast. Natural gas prices are consistent with industry long-term reference forecasts.
A robust economy drives technological advancement and economies of scale resulting in a greater potential for demand response, energy efficiency, and distributed generation as well as lower capital cost for renewables. Thermal generation retirements in the market are driven by unit age-limits and announced retirements (consistent with business as usual). Company-owned resource retirements are defined by the utility. Retirements of all coal units except the most efficient in the utility’s fleet should be considered. Retirement of older fuel oil – fired generation should also be considered in this scenario. Specific new generating units are modeled if under construction or with regulatory approval (CON, signed GIA) as well as generic new resources (market and consistent with scenario optimizations. Tax credits continue pursuant to current law. Technology costs for thermal units remain stable and escalate at low to moderate escalation rates. Technology costs for EWR and demand response programs will be determined by their respective potential studies. Total resource limits for EWR and demand response programs are raised by the lesser of: 25% from their achievable level or the 50% of their economic level of potential as identified by their potential studies. Technology costs for battery storage resources decline over time. Emerging Technologies Sensitivities: Fuel cost projections Identify risk of significant upward variability of fuel price projections. Load projections Identify risk of higher than expected upward variability of energy and peak demand projections. EWR potential study maximum achievable potential. Transportation energy: Adoption of electric cars could increase demand. Large electric users: Reduced load due to customers adding combined heat and power (CHP), batteries, behind the meter generation (btmg) to offset the high electric rates. Scenario 3. Environmental Policy (Applicability: Utilities located in MISO Zone 7) Carbon regulations targeting a 30% reduction (by mass for existing and new sources) from 2005 to 2030 across all aggregated unit outputs are enacted, driving some coal retirements and an increase in natural gas reliance. Increased renewable additions are driven by renewable portfolio standards and goals, economics, and business practices to meet carbon regulations. Demand and energy growth rates are modeled at a level equivalent to a 50/50 forecast. Natural gas prices are consistent with industry long-term reference forecasts.
7.12.2017_Staff_Strawman_Proposal_Draft_578431_7.docx