Gasoline Prices, Vehicle Spending and National Employment: Vector Error Correction Estimates Implying a Structurally Adapting, Integrated System, 1949-2011 Danilo J. Santini, Phone: (703) 678-7656 Argonne National Laboratory E-mail: dsantini@anl.gov David A. Poyer, Phone: (404) 222-2580 Morehouse College E-mail: dpoyer@morehouse.edu Presented at: 32nd U.S. and International Associations for Energy Economics North American Conference Anchorage, Alaska: July 28-31, 2013 The submitted manuscript has been created by Argonne National Laboratory, a U.S. Department of Energy laboratory managed by UChicago Argonne, LLC, under Contract No. DE-AC02-06CH11357. The U.S. Government retains for itself, and others acting on its behalf, a paid-up, nonexclusive, irrevocable worldwide license in said article to reproduce, prepare derivative works, distribute copies to the public, and perform publicly and display publicly, by or on behalf of the Government. Sponsor: J. Ward, Vehicle Technologies Program, U.S. Department of Energy Overview The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) separates long-term equilibrium relationships from short term deviations from equilibrium. What is called the cointegration relationship tests for the existence of a stable, systematic integrated relationship among levels of variables and estimates correction to deviations from the cointegrated path. Multiple equilibria are possible as the cointegration path is pushed from
Gasoline Prices, Vehicle Spending and National Employment: Vector Error Correction Estimates Implying a Structurally Adapting, Integrated System, 1949-2011 Danilo J. Santini, Phone: (703) 678-7656 Argonne National Laboratory E-mail: dsantini@anl.gov David A. Poyer, Phone: (404) 222-2580 Morehouse College E-mail: dpoyer@morehouse.edu Presented at: 32nd U.S. and International Associations for Energy Economics North American Conference Anchorage, Alaska: July 28-31, 2013 The submitted manuscript has been created by Argonne National Laboratory, a U.S. Department of Energy laboratory managed by UChicago Argonne, LLC, under Contract No. DE-AC02-06CH11357. The U.S. Government retains for itself, and others acting on its behalf, a paid-up, nonexclusive, irrevocable worldwide license in said article to reproduce, prepare derivative works, distribute copies to the public, and perform publicly and display publicly, by or on behalf of the Government. Sponsor: J. Ward, Vehicle Technologies Program, U.S. Department of Energy Overview The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) separates long-term equilibrium relationships from short term deviations from equilibrium. What is called the cointegration relationship tests for the existence of a stable, systematic integrated relationship among levels of variables and estimates correction to deviations from the cointegrated path. Multiple equilibria are possible as the cointegration path is pushed from
6847-USAEE-IAEE%202013%20Santini%20%26%20Poyer%20paper%20submission%205-31-13.docx