Table 15. Landscape 4 Climate Stressors, Risks, Impacts and Potential Adaptive Responses for Bwindi-Mgahinga Conservation Area (BMCA), Echuya – Central Forest Reserve (ECFR) and Surrounding Communities INDIRECT IMPACTS INDIRECT IMPACTS POTENTIAL TO LIVELIHOODS TO BIODIVERSITY CLIMATE DIRECT IMPACTS TO CLIMATE RISKS ADAPTIVE FROM BIODIVERSITY FROM LIVELIHOOD STRESSORS BIODIVERSITY RESPONSES IMPACTS IMPACTS Animals unable to Decreased quality Given the extremely small size and unique climatic, escape fires will die; of tourism some will be topographic and experience, revenue temporarily or ecological characteristics and tourism permanently relocated of the MGNP, livelihood options. If Responses to beyond the PA encroachment by humans mountain gorillas and biodiversity impacts: boundaries. into the park have grave other wildlife Integrate PA fire implications for the Destruction of ground disperse, tourism management endangered mountain cover, resulting in revenue would planning into gorilla. If climate increased erosion and decrease, and this GMPs to address fire possibly landslides, would affect change causes human threats, and include which could result in livelihoods of local populations living adjacent PA staff training and to the park to encroach increased siltation of people who rely realtime fire upon the park to extend streams, rivers and directly and monitoring in gorilla indirectly on farming for example, this wetlands, including the Higher temperatures habitat. swamps that hold water will put substantial tourism. Develop and yearround, affecting pressure on the gorilla Fewer PA Increased incidence and implement a habitat fisheries and other population, forcing resources for spread of fires due to restoration plan with aquatic resources, and gorillas into smaller and community use. Plant a focus on higher temperatures and the wildlife that rely on potentially resources used by Decreased precipitation revegetating/restorin less precipitation. these species for food. unviable habitat within surrounding g fragile areas. Fires could destroy MGNP and/or permanent communities could be To raise revenue for whole populations in migration into adjoining destroyed by fire, and the PA system, BMCA and the protected land in Rwanda. this could support gorilla ECFR, especially those Such encroachment also decrease community habituation and Longer dry periods with restricted ranges. will exacerbate other support for the diversify the tourism biodiversity impacts noted BMCA and products of BMCA to in the ECFR and “Direct be compatible with the potential impacts of climate change. Integrate climate screening into
Table 15. Landscape 4 – Climate Stressors, Risks, Impacts and Potential Adaptive Responses for Bwindi-Mgahinga Conservation Area (BMCA), Echuya Central Forest Reserve (ECFR) and Surrounding Communities CLIMATE STRESSORS CLIMATE RISKS DIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY INDIRECT IMPACTS TO LIVELIHOODS FROM BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS INDIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY FROM LIVELIHOOD IMPACTS POTENTIAL ADAPTIVE RESPONSES Higher temperatures Decreased precipitation Longer dry periods Increased incidence and spread of fires due to higher temperatures and less precipitation. Animals unable to escape fires will die; some will be temporarily or permanently relocated beyond the PA boundaries. Destruction of ground cover, resulting in increased erosion and possibly landslides, which could result in increased siltation of streams, rivers and wetlands, including the swamps that hold water yearround, affecting fisheries and other aquatic resources, and the wildlife that rely on these species for food. Fires could destroy whole populations in BMCA and the ECFR, especially those with restricted ranges. Decreased quality of tourism experience, revenue and tourism livelihood options. If mountain gorillas and other wildlife disperse, tourism revenue would decrease, and this would affect livelihoods of local people who rely directly and indirectly on tourism. Fewer PA resources for community use. Plant resources used by surrounding communities could be destroyed by fire, and this could decrease community support for the BMCA and ECFR and Given the extremely small size and unique climatic, topographic and ecological characteristics of the MGNP, encroachment by humans into the park have grave implications for the endangered mountain gorilla. If climate change causes human populations living adjacent to the park to encroach upon the park to extend farming for example, this will put substantial pressure on the gorilla population, forcing gorillas into smaller and potentially unviable habitat within MGNP and/or permanent migration into adjoining protected land in Rwanda. Such encroachment also will exacerbate other biodiversity impacts noted in the “Direct Responses to biodiversity impacts: Integrate PA fire management planning into GMPs to address fire threats, and include PA staff training and realtime fire monitoring in gorilla habitat. Develop and implement a habitat restoration plan with a focus on revegetating/restorin g fragile areas. To raise revenue for the PA system, support gorilla habituation and diversify the tourism products of BMCA to be compatible with the potential impacts of climate change. Integrate climate screening into
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