Appendix E: PSA Parameters Variable Mean Value SE Parameterisation Distribution used Use N*100=alpha of Individual the one parameter treatment ACR response rates n/a Gamma distribution Dirichlet response for each ACR rate category Non-responder 0.14 0.02 Taken from post-hoc HAQ score analysis of OPTION, ACR20 responder 0.46 0.02 adjustments LITHE and TOWARD Normal ACR50 responder 0.68 0.03 (initial [3-5] (see Appendix improvement) ACR70 responder 0.9 0.03 A) Assume 0.0225 (sDMARD value) is the upper limit of CI bDMARD 0 0.0057 and 0 is the mean value in the acceptable range Normal Assume 0.03 Long term (palliative care) is the changes: HAQ upper limit of CI and sDMARD 0.0225 0.0019 progression 0.0225 is the mean value in the acceptable range Use lognormal on the difference Linked to sDMARD Palliative care 0.03 n/a with sDMARD value HAQ progression: 1.33 Rebound effect 1 n/a Assumption +/-20% Uniform [0.8, 1.2] Alpha and beta parameters calculated using Baseline mean value and SE reported in Hyrich 75.00 1.26 2009 [1] Non-responder 4.02 0.79 Alpha and beta Beta ACR20 responder 23.97 0.86 parameters (Generated VAS pain score calculated using probabilistic value ACR50 responder 36 0.95 mean value and SE is multiplied by taken from OPTION, 100) LITHE and TOWARD ACR70 responder [3-5] (see Appendix 45.96 1.26 A) Results of clinician Palliative care survey Assume the CI 55 1.2755 is between 50-60 Mortality Mortality risk 1.33 0.1304 Wolfe et al. 1994 [2] Lognormal Outpatient visit Based on NHS Cost 214 5.91 Normal (first attendance) reference costs [7]
Appendix E: PSA Parameters Variable Mean Value SE Parameterisation Distribution used ACR response rates Individual treatment response rate n/a Use N*100=alpha of the one parameter Gamma distribution for each ACR category Dirichlet HAQ score adjustments (initial improvement) Non-responder 0.14 0.02 Taken from post-hoc analysis of OPTION, LITHE and TOWARD [3-5] (see Appendix A) Normal ACR20 responder 0.46 0.02 ACR50 responder 0.68 0.03 ACR70 responder 0.9 0.03 Long term changes: HAQ progression bDMARD 0 0.0057 Assume 0.0225 (sDMARD value) is the upper limit of CI and 0 is the mean value in the acceptable range Normal sDMARD 0.0225 0.0019 Assume 0.03 (palliative care) is the upper limit of CI and 0.0225 is the mean value in the acceptable range Palliative care 0.03 n/a Linked to sDMARD value Use lognormal on the difference with sDMARD HAQ progression: 1.33 Rebound effect 1 n/a Assumption +/-20% Uniform [0.8, 1.2] VAS pain score Baseline 75.00 1.26 Alpha and beta parameters calculated using mean value and SE reported in Hyrich 2009 [1] Beta (Generated probabilistic value is multiplied by 100) Non-responder 4.02 0.79 Alpha and beta parameters calculated using mean value and SE taken from OPTION, LITHE and TOWARD [3-5] (see Appendix A) ACR20 responder 23.97 0.86 ACR50 responder 36 0.95 ACR70 responder 45.96 1.26 Palliative care 55 1.2755 Results of clinician survey Assume the CI is between 50-60 Mortality Mortality risk 1.33 0.1304 Wolfe et al. 1994 [2] Lognormal Cost Outpatient visit (first attendance) 214 5.91 Based on NHS reference costs [7] Normal
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