Demand Analysis Working Group Meeting (DAWG) – A meeting of the DAWG Energy Savings Subgroup was held May 14, 2013. This webinar focused on the CPUC’s Energy Efficiency Potential & Goals project. The Energy Efficiency Potential Study will feed into the Energy Commission’s “incremental uncommitted energy efficiency analysis.” The name for the “incremental uncommitted energy efficiency analysis is likely to be changed. Leading contenders are “achievable energy efficiency analysis” and “projected energy efficiency.” Draft results from the Commercial, Residential and Industrial models were discussed. The big takeaway from this meeting was that the technical and economic potential has increased rather dramatically from the 2011 version of this effort; on the order of 50% higher. The reasons for this increase have primarily to do with technical issues related to implementation of the analysis. The reasons for this change are: The 2013 model calculates the technical potential if all available “sockets” adopted the most efficient measures in a given competition group. For HVAC, this means that all existing air conditioners are replaced with SEER 22 A/C, for example. These most efficient measures often experience very limited adoption, however, because their financial characteristics are less attractive relative to the “moderately efficient” and/or baseline technologies in the competition group. This adoption trend explains, in part, the gap between economic and cumulative market potential that we see in several places. The 2011 model calculated technical potential if all available “sockets” adopted a moderately efficient technology in a given competition group. The savings for these moderately efficient technologies were less (sometimes significantly so) than the most efficient technologies. Thus, this was a major factor contributing to lower technical potential in the 2011 model. Emerging technologies received more attention. Some of the calibration steps increased technical and economic potential though less so with “market” or “achievable” potential. Significant discussion in the meeting related to CAISO’s desire to receive demand forecast information (including disaggregation of energy efficiency forecast impacts) ideally down to the distribution level. The energy efficiency potential
Demand Analysis Working Group Meeting (DAWG) – A meeting of the DAWG Energy Savings Subgroup was held May 14, 2013. This webinar focused on the CPUC’s Energy Efficiency Potential & Goals project. The Energy Efficiency Potential Study will feed into the Energy Commission’s “incremental uncommitted energy efficiency analysis.” The name for the “incremental uncommitted energy efficiency analysis is likely to be changed. Leading contenders are “achievable energy efficiency analysis” and “projected energy efficiency.” Draft results from the Commercial, Residential and Industrial models were discussed. The big takeaway from this meeting was that the technical and economic potential has increased rather dramatically from the 2011 version of this effort; on the order of 50% higher. The reasons for this increase have primarily to do with technical issues related to implementation of the analysis. The reasons for this change are: The 2013 model calculates the technical potential if all available “sockets” adopted the most efficient measures in a given competition group. For HVAC, this means that all existing air conditioners are replaced with SEER 22 A/C, for example. These most efficient measures often experience very limited adoption, however, because their financial characteristics are less attractive relative to the “moderately efficient” and/or baseline technologies in the competition group. This adoption trend explains, in part, the gap between economic and cumulative market potential that we see in several places. The 2011 model calculated technical potential if all available “sockets” adopted a moderately efficient technology in a given competition group. The savings for these moderately efficient technologies were less (sometimes significantly so) than the most efficient technologies. Thus, this was a major factor contributing to lower technical potential in the 2011 model. Emerging technologies received more attention. Some of the calibration steps increased technical and economic potential though less so with “market” or “achievable” potential. Significant discussion in the meeting related to CAISO’s desire to receive demand forecast information (including disaggregation of energy efficiency forecast impacts) ideally down to the distribution level. The energy efficiency potential
3.PSR%20for%20DAWG%2005-14-2013.docx