TABLE 2 Summary of ISO Studies by RPS Portfolio In each of the four RPS scenarios, the ISO model included assumptions of distributed generation MW, and non-distributed generation MW for 2021; all scenarios assumed the same demand forecasts from the CEC. Tables 3 - 6 show the ISO’s distributed generation and non-distributed generation assumptions for each scenario. TABLE 3 TABLE 4 TABLE 5 TABLE 6 The ISO recommendation is based on the Trajectory scenario because “the Trajectory scenario studied in the OTC studies is the scenario most aligned with commercial interest.” The ISO also believes this scenario best reflects future load growth and renewable generation development. The Trajectory scenario forecasts a need for 2370 MW in the LA basin local area, which Sparks rounds up to 2400 MW. This forecast includes a specific need for 225 MW in the Ellis sub-area. In supplemental testimony, Sparks describes a sensitivity analysis performed at the request of this Commission, the CEC and the California Air
TABLE 2 Summary of ISO Studies by RPS Portfolio In each of the four RPS scenarios, the ISO model included assumptions of distributed generation MW, and non-distributed generation MW for 2021; all scenarios assumed the same demand forecasts from the CEC. Tables 3 - 6 show the ISO’s distributed generation and non-distributed generation assumptions for each scenario. TABLE 3 TABLE 4 TABLE 5 TABLE 6 The ISO recommendation is based on the Trajectory scenario because “the Trajectory scenario studied in the OTC studies is the scenario most aligned with commercial interest.” The ISO also believes this scenario best reflects future load growth and renewable generation development. The Trajectory scenario forecasts a need for 2370 MW in the LA basin local area, which Sparks rounds up to 2400 MW. This forecast includes a specific need for 225 MW in the Ellis sub-area. In supplemental testimony, Sparks describes a sensitivity analysis performed at the request of this Commission, the CEC and the California Air
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