Box 3: comparison of the cautious macroeconomic framework with the previous MINECOFIN DSA November 2013 July 2014 July 2014 Cautious Optimistic More cautious Real GDP growth of 7.5 Real GDP growth of 6.0 per Real GDP growth of 7.5 growth outlook per cent in medium and cent in medium and long per cent in medium and long term (reflecting PSI term. long term. agenda). Similar growth in 8.5 per cent growth in 9.0 per cent growth in 10.7 per cent growth in exports in medium and exports in medium and long exports in medium and exports but greater leakage long term. term. Import growth is long term. Import through imports higher. growth is higher. Composition of Grants remain a key part Tapering down of grants and Slower tapering down public financing is of financing until the revenue gradually increases of grants and revenue different end of the period. to 21.4 per cent of GDP in increases to 23.0 per Revenues are 16.8 per 2034. Capital expenditure cent of GDP in 2034. cent of GDP by 2034. growth is lower than in the past.
Box 3: comparison of the cautious macroeconomic framework with the previous MINECOFIN DSA November 2013 July 2014 Cautious July 2014 Optimistic More cautious growth outlook Real GDP growth of 7.5 per cent in medium and long term (reflecting PSI agenda). Real GDP growth of 6.0 per cent in medium and long term. Real GDP growth of 7.5 per cent in medium and long term. Similar growth in exports but greater leakage through imports 8.5 per cent growth in exports in medium and long term. 9.0 per cent growth in exports in medium and long term. Import growth is higher. 10.7 per cent growth in exports in medium and long term. Import growth is higher. Composition of public financing is different Grants remain a key part of financing until the end of the period. Revenues are 16.8 per cent of GDP by 2034. Tapering down of grants and revenue gradually increases to 21.4 per cent of GDP in 2034. Capital expenditure growth is lower than in the past. Slower tapering down of grants and revenue increases to 23.0 per cent of GDP in 2034.
Debt_Sustainabilty_Analysis_Report_-_end_2013.docx