Further, the CBM provided individual modeling predictions for the four regions. One region (Northwest) appeared to be unbounded while the other three exhibited approximate greatest upper bound as follows: Atlantic 4000 Southwest 4000 Upper St. Johns 6000 Looking at the combined predicted population values, we again see the population leveling off at around 10,000 animals due to warm water CC. Source: Manatee Threats Analysis, Michael C. Runge, USGS, presented to the Manatee Forum, May 2013 Looking at the combined predicted population values, we again see the population leveling off at around 10,000 animals due to warm water CC. These numbers have direct relevance to the overall statewide/regional manatee CC but only from the perspective of warm water capacity. This look at CC does not include any limitations with respect to forage. For those who might argue that human activity, such as mortality attributed to watercraft, or who might also conjecture that a sudden change in the historically observed frequency of red tide events has an impact on overall population or even more implausible, on OSP or CC, one need only look at the following summary charts from the CBM to see that these events have been incorporated into their effects have been calculated in the CBM predictions. In fact, if for example, all man made mortality due to watercraft were immediately eliminated for all time the affect on the prediction of would be about of a percent (0.06%) ‘quasi-extinction’ improvement over the previously stated probability of 0.10% reducing the probability of quasi-extinction prediction to .094%. Red tide elimination would improve probability of quasi-extinction by 0.64%, further reducing the 0.10% probability of to 0.036%. These are negligible impacts and ‘quasi –extinction therefore watercraft and red-tide considerations are not relevant to calculations of OSP or CC. Source: Manatee Threats Analysis, Michael C. Runge, USGS, presented to the Manatee Forum, May 2013 In June 2012, Provancha, et al, published Carrying Capacity Assessment of Manatee which was submitted to Forage and Warm-water Associated with Eleven Florida Sites the USFWS by Innovative Health Applications, LLC (IHA). Even though the intent of the study was to examine warm water CC, the authors recognized the availability of nearby SAV for forage as another primary consideration in determining the limits on CC.
Further, the CBM provided individual modeling predictions for the four regions. One region (Northwest) appeared to be unbounded while the other three exhibited approximate greatest upper bound as follows: Atlantic 4000 Southwest 4000 Upper St. Johns 6000 Looking at the combined predicted population values, we again see the population leveling off at around 10,000 animals due to warm water CC. Source: Manatee Threats Analysis, Michael C. Runge, USGS, presented to the Manatee Forum, May 2013 Looking at the combined predicted population values, we again see the population leveling off at around 10,000 animals due to warm water CC. These numbers have direct relevance to the overall statewide/regional manatee CC but only from the perspective of warm water capacity. This look at CC does not include any limitations with respect to forage. For those who might argue that human activity, such as mortality attributed to watercraft, or who might also conjecture that a sudden change in the historically observed frequency of red tide events has an impact on overall population or even more implausible, on OSP or CC, one need only look at the following summary charts from the CBM to see that these events have been incorporated into their effects have been calculated in the CBM predictions. In fact, if for example, all man made mortality due to watercraft were immediately eliminated for all time the affect on the prediction of ‘quasi-extinction’ would be about of a percent (0.06%) improvement over the previously stated probability of 0.10% reducing the probability of quasi-extinction prediction to .094%. Red tide elimination would improve probability of quasi-extinction by 0.64%, further reducing the 0.10% probability of ‘quasi –extinction to 0.036%. These are negligible impacts and therefore watercraft and red-tide considerations are not relevant to calculations of OSP or CC. Source: Manatee Threats Analysis, Michael C. Runge, USGS, presented to the Manatee Forum, May 2013 In June 2012, Provancha, et al, published Carrying Capacity Assessment of Manatee Forage and Warm-water Associated with Eleven Florida Sites which was submitted to the USFWS by Innovative Health Applications, LLC (IHA). Even though the intent of the study was to examine warm water CC, the authors recognized the availability of nearby SAV for forage as another primary consideration in determining the limits on CC.
D4-West-Indian-Manatee-CC.docx