At least 2 days At least 2 days P[TOC≤10]=0.212 early $400 early $350 1 day 1 day early $300 $250 On time, Day On time, Day 12 $200 12 $200 1 day late 1 day late $0 $100 At least 2 days At 2 days P[TOC≥13]=1-0.885=0.115 late $0 late $50 The company conducted a PERT analysis on Excel and reported the following results. From PERT Option 1. Option 2. Analysis Min Max Prob $ EMV $ EMV 10 0.212 $400 $84.80 $350 $74.20 10 11 0.235 $300 $70.50 $250 $58.75 11 12 0.256 $200 $51.20 $200 $51.20 12 13 0.182 $0 $0 $100 $18.20 13 0.115 $0 $0 $50 $5.75 Sum= 1.000 Total= $206.50 Total= $208.10 Discussion: Note 1. Consider variables that would create a basis for strategic analysis. Note 2. Identify characteristics that would support selection of variables to modify. Note 2. Extend analysis to include and within the decision process. ‘risk’ ‘utility’
At least 2 days early $400 At least 2 days early $350 P[TOC≤10]=0.212 1 day $300 1 day early $250 On time, Day 12 $200 On time, Day 12 $200 1 day late $0 1 day late $100 At least 2 days late $0 At 2 days late $50 P[TOC≥13]=1-0.885=0.115 The company conducted a PERT analysis on Excel and reported the following results. From PERT Analysis Option 1. Option 2. Min Max Prob $ EMV $ EMV 10 0.212 $400 $84.80 $350 $74.20 10 11 0.235 $300 $70.50 $250 $58.75 11 12 0.256 $200 $51.20 $200 $51.20 12 13 0.182 $0 $0 $100 $18.20 13 0.115 $0 $0 $50 $5.75 Sum= 1.000 Total= $206.50 Total= $208.10 Discussion: Note 1. Consider variables that would create a basis for strategic analysis. Note 2. Identify characteristics that would support selection of variables to modify. Note 2. Extend analysis to include ‘risk’ and ‘utility’ within the decision process.
CPM-PERT-Material.docx