Table 1: OLS Time Series Regression Model: Effect of the change in daily news coverage and change in Dow Jones public opinion (Obama vote) Rasmussen Gallup Model All Polls Model Coefficient Coefficient Coefficient (p-value) (p-value) (p-value) Obama Support Lag 1 .538 .678 .888 (.001) (.001) (.001) Obama Support Lag 4 .112 -.078 -.137 (.142) (.242) (.03) daily Stock Market average .001 .001 .001 (.008) (.104) (.09) daily percentage of news coverage .097 .157 .053 (.009) (.004) (.006) trend variable .001 .001 .001 (.0001) (.0001) (.0001) Obama’s Europe trip .005 .005 .004 (.256) (.398) (.026) Democrat Party Convention -.001 -.003 -.001 (.812) (.497) (.974) economic crisis .006 .004 .004 (.114) (.432) (.071) constant .014 .009 .054 (.822) (.904) (.135) R square .86 .88 .96
Table 1: OLS Time Series Regression Model: Effect of the change in daily news coverage and change in Dow Jones public opinion (Obama vote) Rasmussen Coefficient (p-value) Gallup Model Coefficient (p-value) All Polls Model Coefficient (p-value) Obama Support Lag 1 .538 (.001) .678 (.001) .888 (.001) Obama Support Lag 4 .112 (.142) -.078 (.242) -.137 (.03) daily Stock Market average .001 (.008) .001 (.104) .001 (.09) daily percentage of news coverage .097 (.009) .157 (.004) .053 (.006) trend variable .001 (.0001) .001 (.0001) .001 (.0001) Obama’s Europe trip .005 (.256) .005 (.398) .004 (.026) Democrat Party Convention -.001 (.812) -.003 (.497) -.001 (.974) economic crisis .006 (.114) .004 (.432) .004 (.071) constant .014 (.822) .009 (.904) .054 (.135) R square .86 .88 .96
Day_Jonathan__Daily_Effects_on_Presidential_Candidate_Choice_3-01-10.docx