Peter: ranked as high Large-scale landcover changes occur over mainly because of shrub Some terrestrial periods of years to decades. increase. Doesn’t see that vegetation models suggest potential for large-scale reflected much in this conversion of low tundra to shrubs, then to HHH document. This is what conifers, and from conifers to deciduous forests, or we mean by “landcover perhaps to grass. Other models indicate increasing change.” Loss of tundra lichen, decreased sedges, and increases to habitats would create deciduous and evergreen shrubs. challenges for ungulates. Tree species and vegetation classes shift as Linda: large impacts on species typical of lower altitudes and latitudes LHHH all wildlife. expand into higher areas. Mountain and arctic ecosystems change within 50 years, and conditions substantially become unsuited for some native species. Some MHH rare species could become endangered and endangered plants species may go extinct as conditions change. Peter: lots of uncertainty. Atypical outbreaks of and plant diseases Linda Jeschke: now occur more widely, increasing fire hazards and LLMH prevalent south of us, hastening decline of native and familiar species. may also happen here. Peter: low, but again, lots Invasive exotic species and native species from of uncertainty. areas expand into parks. It becomes easier Ken-high. Could be a for invasive species that are already adapted to major concern over such conditions, to survive, reproduce and expand LH longer time periods, into available habitat as native species become might be addressed on a increasingly stressed by changing conditions such regional or landscape as rising temperature and declining soil moisture. scale Shrubs and expand further into tundra primarily along hillsides and valleys. Some scenic tundra vistas become thick with deciduous trees LH and shrubs, obscuring wildlife observations from visitor centers and park roads. Black spruce may expand or contract, expanding Peter: too much under warming conditions coupled with increasing LMM uncertainty to say for fire interval or contracting as underlying – sure. permafrost soils thaw and fire frequency increases. Fire increases in boreal and tundra ecosystems. Model simulations show a warming climate leads to slightly more fires and much larger fires, as well Biosphere as expansion of forest into previously treeless MHH Fire tundra. Flammability increases rapidly in direct response to climate warming and more gradually in response to climate-induced vegetation changes.
Large-scale landcover changes occur over periods of years to decades. Some terrestrial vegetation models suggest potential for large-scale conversion of low tundra to shrubs, then to conifers, and from conifers to deciduous forests, or perhaps to grass. Other models indicate increasing lichen, decreased sedges, and increases to deciduous and evergreen shrubs. HHH Peter: ranked as high mainly because of shrub increase. Doesn’t see that reflected much in this document. This is what we mean by “landcover change.” Loss of tundra habitats would create challenges for ungulates. Tree species and vegetation classes shift as species typical of lower altitudes and latitudes expand into higher areas. LHHH Linda: large impacts on all wildlife. Mountain and arctic ecosystems change substantially within 50 years, and conditions become unsuited for some native species. Some rare species could become endangered and endangered plants species may go extinct as conditions change. MHH Atypical outbreaks of and plant diseases occur more widely, increasing fire hazards and hastening decline of native and familiar species. LLMH Peter: lots of uncertainty. Linda Jeschke: now prevalent south of us, may also happen here. Invasive exotic species and native species from areas expand into parks. It becomes easier for invasive species that are already adapted to such conditions, to survive, reproduce and expand into available habitat as native species become increasingly stressed by changing conditions such as rising temperature and declining soil moisture. LH Peter: low, but again, lots of uncertainty. Ken-high. Could be a major concern over longer time periods, might be addressed on a regional or landscape scale Shrubs and expand further into tundra primarily along hillsides and valleys. Some scenic tundra vistas become thick with deciduous trees and shrubs, obscuring wildlife observations from visitor centers and park roads. LH Biosphere Black spruce may expand or contract, expanding under warming conditions coupled with increasing fire interval – or contracting as underlying permafrost soils thaw and fire frequency increases. LMM Peter: too much uncertainty to say for sure. Fire Fire increases in boreal and tundra ecosystems. Model simulations show a warming climate leads to slightly more fires and much larger fires, as well as expansion of forest into previously treeless tundra. Flammability increases rapidly in direct response to climate warming and more gradually in response to climate-induced vegetation changes. MHH
CCSP%20Report%20-%20Western%20Arctic%20-%2004-29.docx