escalate to DFID any risks to the budget. Higher inflation negatively External Low to Medium Low to GoM pursuing Social Welfare impacts consumer and Medium reform to improve targeting of GoM finances. support and ensuring reasonable needs are met. Also, diversify Montserrat's energy production by getting renewable energy sources on line as soon as possible. GoM fails to implement Fiduciary High Medium As set out in detail earlier in the public financial Business Case, planned actions management reforms include implementation of a new required to address PFM Action Plan as a substantial fiduciary risk GoM/donor response (e.g. as identified in PEFA to risks identified in PEFA/FRA. and FRA reports). Further DFID assistance to strengthen GoM MoF and particularly the Treasury through advancing the public service reform programme and other technical assistance programmes. Tax revenue growth is External and Medium Low to OTD monitors tax performance than expected due to governance Medium as a core part of the budget aid lower than expected process. economic growth and/or weaker reform and GoM has better expert technical implementation of tax leadership in at MCRS. policy. Human resource capacity Operational Medium to High Medium As set out in more detail earlier cannot be improved in the Business Case, DFID is sufficiently to support providing finance via budget aid planned public service to allow GoM to source experts delivery - compromising for critical areas, as well as the quality and impact of wider recruitment support to services and overall value GoM’s Human Resource for money. Department. Additional technical assistance support via Public Sector Reform programme and Short Term TC. Risk that OTD is Operational Medium Medium As set out more detail earlier in compelled to continue the Business Case, there is a active management of Commercial Plan in place procurement services and including: the GoM’s mechanisms do not improve i.Appointment of an sufficiently. internationally recruited Director of Procurement to head the Procurement Unit; ii.The DFID representative on island will sit on the Public Procurement Board and iii.DFID’s Commercial Team will have fortnightly Commercial Meetings with OTD and GoM to
escalate to DFID any risks to the budget. Higher inflation negatively impacts consumer and GoM finances. External Low to Medium Low to Medium GoM pursuing Social Welfare reform to improve targeting of support and ensuring reasonable needs are met. Also, diversify Montserrat's energy production by getting renewable energy sources on line as soon as possible. GoM fails to implement public financial management reforms required to address substantial fiduciary risk (e.g. as identified in PEFA and FRA reports). Fiduciary High Medium As set out in detail earlier in the Business Case, planned actions include implementation of a new PFM Action Plan as a GoM/donor response to risks identified in PEFA/FRA. Further DFID assistance to strengthen GoM MoF and particularly the Treasury through advancing the public service reform programme and other technical assistance programmes. Tax revenue growth is than expected due to lower than expected economic growth and/or weaker reform and implementation of tax policy. External and governance Medium Low to Medium OTD monitors tax performance as a core part of the budget aid process. GoM has better expert technical leadership in at MCRS. Human resource capacity cannot be improved sufficiently to support planned public service delivery - compromising the quality and impact of services and overall value for money. Operational Medium to High Medium As set out in more detail earlier in the Business Case, DFID is providing finance via budget aid to allow GoM to source experts for critical areas, as well as wider recruitment support to GoM’s Human Resource Department. Additional technical assistance support via Public Sector Reform programme and Short Term TC. Risk that OTD is compelled to continue active management of procurement services and the GoM’s mechanisms do not improve sufficiently. Operational Medium Medium As set out more detail earlier in the Business Case, there is a Commercial Plan in place including: i.Appointment of an internationally recruited Director of Procurement to head the Procurement Unit; ii.The DFID representative on island will sit on the Public Procurement Board and iii.DFID’s Commercial Team will have fortnightly Commercial Meetings with OTD and GoM to
Business-Case-Montserrat-Budget-Aid-2015-16-7-GoM.docx