If the global trend towards stronger action on climate change is sustained, Australia will need to do more to transition away from its high-emissions economy. The Authority’s recommendations would help Australia to remain competitive in an increasingly emissions-constrained global economy. 9.3.2 National emissions trajectory and budget As discussed in Chapter 7, the Authority recommends a simple straight-line trajectory to 2020. This trajectory tracks from Australia’s target under the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol to the recommended target in 2020. This trajectory corresponds to a national emissions budget of 4,193 Mt CO2-e for the period 2013 to 2020. Figure 9.2 illustrates the recommended emissions reductions goals to 2020. Figure 9.2: Recommended 2020 for Australia Source: Climate Change Authority Even with a target of 15 per cent plus carryover in 2020, emissions reductions would need to accelerate after 2020 if Australia was to stay on track to meet the Authority’s recommended budget to 2050. The next section describes the Authority’s recommendations for the medium term. Recommendations R.5 A minimum 2020 emissions reduction target of 15 per cent below 2000 levels. R.6 Australia’s carryover from the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol be used to raise the 2020 emissions reduction target by 4 percentage points, giving a 2020 target of 19 per cent. R.7 An indicative national trajectory for the period 2013–2020 that follows a straight line to the 2020 target. This line starts at Australia’s first commitment period target under the Kyoto Protocol (108 per cent of 1990 levels) in 2010, and ends at 19 per cent below 2000 levels in 2020. R.8 A national carbon budget for the period 2013–2020 of 4,193 Mt CO2-e. 9.4 Guidance beyond 2020—recommended 2030 goals The Authority recommends a trajectory range to 2030 of 40 to 60 per cent below 2000 levels as guidance for future targets. Figure 9.3 illustrates the recommended trajectory range in the context of the full set of goals. Figure 9.3: Recommended goals for Australia
If the global trend towards stronger action on climate change is sustained, Australia will need to do more to transition away from its high-emissions economy. The Authority’s recommendations would help Australia to remain competitive in an increasingly emissions-constrained global economy. 9.3.2 National emissions trajectory and budget As discussed in Chapter 7, the Authority recommends a simple straight-line trajectory to 2020. This trajectory tracks from Australia’s target under the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol to the recommended target in 2020. This trajectory corresponds to a national emissions budget of 4,193 Mt CO2-e for the period 2013 to 2020. Figure 9.2 illustrates the recommended emissions reductions goals to 2020. Figure 9.2: Recommended 2020 for Australia Source: Climate Change Authority Even with a target of 15 per cent plus carryover in 2020, emissions reductions would need to accelerate after 2020 if Australia was to stay on track to meet the Authority’s recommended budget to 2050. The next section describes the Authority’s recommendations for the medium term. Recommendations R.5 A minimum 2020 emissions reduction target of 15 per cent below 2000 levels. R.6 Australia’s carryover from the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol be used to raise the 2020 emissions reduction target by 4 percentage points, giving a 2020 target of 19 per cent. R.7 An indicative national trajectory for the period 2013–2020 that follows a straight line to the 2020 target. This line starts at Australia’s first commitment period target under the Kyoto Protocol (108 per cent of 1990 levels) in 2010, and ends at 19 per cent below 2000 levels in 2020. R.8 A national carbon budget for the period 2013–2020 of 4,193 Mt CO2-e. 9.4 Guidance beyond 2020—recommended 2030 goals The Authority recommends a trajectory range to 2030 of 40 to 60 per cent below 2000 levels as guidance for future targets. Figure 9.3 illustrates the recommended trajectory range in the context of the full set of goals. Figure 9.3: Recommended goals for Australia
CCA_TargetsAndProgressFinalReportHTMLChapter9.docx