Significant increases in declared forecast conditions relative to current arrangements Region Forecasting horizon Increased number of TIs with declared condition (per (hrs) NSW 24 LOR2 increase by ~ 6 TIs NSW 48 LOR2 increase by ~ 15 TIs NSW 72 LOR2 increase by ~ 16 TIs SA 12 LOR2 increase by ~ 5 TIs SA 48 LOR2 increase by ~ 43 TIs SA 72 LOR2 increase by ~ 51 TIs Vic 72 LOR2 increase by ~ 5 TIs It should be noted that a declaration of a forecast LOR2 condition does not necessarily mean immediate intervention by AEMO, particularly for longer forecasting horizons. Once such a declaration is made, where time allows AEMO will first seek a market response before considering intervention. The adjustment of the chosen confidence levels to ensure monotonic variation was included to reduce risk of fluctuations of LOR levels as forecasting horizon reduces. The adjustment to achieve consistent confidence levels for all regions, subject to substantially meeting the other criteria, was included on the basis that the tolerance for risk should be consistent across the entire NEM. For forecasting horizons than those specifically analysed, the appropriate confidence level was chosen by extrapolating between the confidence levels chosen for the specific forecasting horizon studied in this analysis. The selection for each forecasting horizon up to 72 hours ahead is recorded in the Guidelines. Expected impact of new approach The following table provides indications of the likely FUM values for a range of scenarios. Indicative values of FUM for specific scenarios Region Scenario Approximate FUM value (MW) South Hot temperatures (>35 degrees 6 900 Australia C), high wind (>1000MW) 24 496 Hot temperatures (>35 degrees 6 434 C), low wind (<300MW) 24 383 Victoria Hot temperatures (>31 degrees 6 1,750 C), high wind (>800MW) 24 1,192 Hot temperatures (>31 6 1,750 degrees), low wind (<200MW) 24 953
Significant increases in declared forecast conditions relative to current arrangements Region Forecasting horizon (hrs) Increased number of TIs with declared condition (per NSW 24 LOR2 increase by ~ 6 TIs NSW 48 LOR2 increase by ~ 15 TIs NSW 72 LOR2 increase by ~ 16 TIs SA 12 LOR2 increase by ~ 5 TIs SA 48 LOR2 increase by ~ 43 TIs SA 72 LOR2 increase by ~ 51 TIs Vic 72 LOR2 increase by ~ 5 TIs It should be noted that a declaration of a forecast LOR2 condition does not necessarily mean immediate intervention by AEMO, particularly for longer forecasting horizons. Once such a declaration is made, where time allows AEMO will first seek a market response before considering intervention. The adjustment of the chosen confidence levels to ensure monotonic variation was included to reduce risk of fluctuations of LOR levels as forecasting horizon reduces. The adjustment to achieve consistent confidence levels for all regions, subject to substantially meeting the other criteria, was included on the basis that the tolerance for risk should be consistent across the entire NEM. For forecasting horizons than those specifically analysed, the appropriate confidence level was chosen by extrapolating between the confidence levels chosen for the specific forecasting horizon studied in this analysis. The selection for each forecasting horizon up to 72 hours ahead is recorded in the Guidelines. Expected impact of new approach The following table provides indications of the likely FUM values for a range of scenarios. Indicative values of FUM for specific scenarios Region Scenario Approximate FUM value (MW) South Australia Hot temperatures (>35 degrees C), high wind (>1000MW) 6 900 24 496 Hot temperatures (>35 degrees C), low wind (<300MW) 6 434 24 383 Victoria Hot temperatures (>31 degrees C), high wind (>800MW) 6 1,750 24 1,192 Hot temperatures (>31 degrees), low wind (<200MW) 6 1,750 24 953
Consultation-Initial-Reserve-Level-Declaration-Guidelines-Report-Dec-17-Final.docx