Figure 3. Inter-event time distribution from a simulation of 100,000 years of seismic activity across the Central Apennines, for three selected fault systems. The time-dependent 50 years occurrence probability of a M6+ earthquake on the fault system, under a renewal BPT Colfiorito-Cittareale model, could be estimated before the 24 August 2016 earthquake as 13%. 5. Statistical parameters of the synthetic catalog for each SFS (see text for explanations) Latest largest Tr(M P50 ≥6.0) ID (y) EQ Cv σ (yr) (%) 9.6 SFS01 493.5 339.9 0.69 1832, Mw 6.4 4.1 SFS02 1206.7 517.8 0.43 1298, Mw 6.3 16.2 SFS03 283.1 206.5 0.73 1915, Mw 7.1 8.6 2009, Mw 6.3 SFS04 555.9 341.9 0.61 5.2 no data SFS05 944.6 447.2 0.47 4.9 SFS06 997.0 305.6 0.31 1984, Mw 5.6 9.2 SFS07 517.8 330.1 0.64 2016, Mw 6.5 5.0 SFS08 971.0 547.6 0.56 1639, Mw 6.2 SFS09 657.2 7.3 364.8 0.56 1461, Mw 6.5 2.6 1741, Mw 6.2 SFS10 1905.8 800.1 0.42 4.5 1799, Mw 6.2 1077.2 681.7 0.63 3.4 1448.3 660.4 0.46 no data 5.8 SFS13 832.1 498.9 0.60 1706, Mw 6.8
Figure 3. Inter-event time distribution from a simulation of 100,000 years of seismic activity across the Central Apennines, for three selected fault systems. The time-dependent 50 years occurrence probability of a M6+ earthquake on the Colfiorito-Cittareale fault system, under a renewal BPT model, could be estimated before the 24 August 2016 earthquake as 13%. 5. Statistical parameters of the synthetic catalog for each SFS (see text for explanations) ID Tr(M ≥6.0) (yr) P50 (%) σ (y) Cv Latest largest EQ SFS01 493.5 9.6 339.9 0.69 1832, Mw 6.4 SFS02 1206.7 4.1 517.8 0.43 1298, Mw 6.3 SFS03 283.1 16.2 206.5 0.73 1915, Mw 7.1 SFS04 555.9 8.6 341.9 0.61 2009, Mw 6.3 SFS05 944.6 5.2 447.2 0.47 no data SFS06 997.0 4.9 305.6 0.31 1984, Mw 5.6 SFS07 517.8 9.2 330.1 0.64 2016, Mw 6.5 SFS08 971.0 5.0 547.6 0.56 1639, Mw 6.2 SFS09 657.2 7.3 364.8 0.56 1461, Mw 6.5 SFS10 1905.8 2.6 800.1 0.42 1741, Mw 6.2 1077.2 4.5 681.7 0.63 1799, Mw 6.2 1448.3 3.4 660.4 0.46 no data SFS13 832.1 5.8 498.9 0.60 1706, Mw 6.8
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