TABLE A1.8 COST CHANGES AND PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS: ESTIMATES OF PROBIT MODELS Equation Variable A1 A2 A3 -0.806 -0.922 -0.809 Intercept (0.580) (0.588) (0.583) -0.210 -0.191 -0.210 Value ($’00m) (0.126) (0.129) (0.127) 0.645 0.666 0.647 Log age (0.209) (0.209) (0.207) 0.830 0.884 0.832 Year to End Returns (0.552) (0.554) (0.552) 0.657 Lifetime Cost Change - - (0.452) 0.021 Annualised Cost Change - - (0.529) Dummies for Starting State (Base = Possible) 0.548 0.601 0.549 Consideration (0.449) (0.459) (0.450) -0.048 -0.059 -0.048 ConsiderationValue (0.171) (0.173) (0.171) 0.916 1.017 0.918 Committed (0.536) (0.536) (0.537) 0.586 0.583 0.586 CommittedValue (0.222) (0.226) (0.221) Dummy for Industry (Base = Electricity, Gas and Water) 0.269 0.156 0.266 Mining Sector (0.413) (0.419) (0.424) 0.349 0.405 0.349 MiningValue (0.146) (0.176) (0.146) Summary Statistics McFadden R-square 0.28 0.30 0.28 Akaike Info criterion 0.750 0.746 0.763 Schwarz criterion 0.947 0.963 0.980 criterion 0.830 0.833 0.851 37.808 40.42 37.810 LR statistic [p-value] [<0.001] [<0.000] [<0.000] Note: have been deflated by the CPI to March 2001 dollars. Cost changes are logarithmic.
TABLE A1.8 COST CHANGES AND PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS: ESTIMATES OF PROBIT MODELS Variable Equation A1 A2 A3 Intercept -0.806 (0.580) -0.922 (0.588) -0.809 (0.583) Value ($’00m) -0.210 (0.126) -0.191 (0.129) -0.210 (0.127) Log age 0.645 (0.209) 0.666 (0.209) 0.647 (0.207) Year to End Returns 0.830 (0.552) 0.884 (0.554) 0.832 (0.552) Lifetime Cost Change - 0.657 (0.452) - Annualised Cost Change - - 0.021 (0.529) Dummies for Starting State (Base = Possible) Consideration 0.548 (0.449) 0.601 (0.459) 0.549 (0.450) ConsiderationValue -0.048 (0.171) -0.059 (0.173) -0.048 (0.171) Committed 0.916 (0.536) 1.017 (0.536) 0.918 (0.537) CommittedValue 0.586 (0.222) 0.583 (0.226) 0.586 (0.221) Dummy for Industry (Base = Electricity, Gas and Water) Mining Sector 0.269 (0.413) 0.156 (0.419) 0.266 (0.424) MiningValue 0.349 (0.146) 0.405 (0.176) 0.349 (0.146) Summary Statistics McFadden R-square 0.28 0.30 0.28 Akaike Info criterion 0.750 0.746 0.763 Schwarz criterion 0.947 0.963 0.980 criterion 0.830 0.833 0.851 LR statistic [p-value] 37.808 [<0.001] 40.42 [<0.000] 37.810 [<0.000] Note: have been deflated by the CPI to March 2001 dollars. Cost changes are logarithmic.
10-25-The-Investment-Project-Pipeline.docx