Lifetime Direct d 16,000 CO2e t = a * b * c Savings Indirect Impact: The concept of eco-driving and associated routine maintenance has strong potential for replication in other mass transit lines currently planned for Bangladesh; and more broadly in the Bangladesh bus industry. Bottom-up on replications. Calculation Baseline With GEF Project Contribution Units Calculation Rationale/assumption/ source From calculations of Direct and Direct Post-Project Impacts. Assumes that Lifetime Direct and operation and the level of GHG savings a 23,250 CO2e t Post-Project Savings will be sustained, supported by ongoing eco-driving/maintenance training and financing mechanisms, as described above. The estimate of 4 replications is based on b Replications an additional 3 BRT lines in Dhaka and 1 4 BRT line in Chittagong, as explained under Component 1a: Energy Efficient Buses. Lifetime Indirect c 93,000 CO2e t = a * b Savings Top-down Based on market potential and GEF Manual for Calculating GHG Benefits of GEF Transport Calculation Projects. Baseline With GEF Project Contribution Units Calculation Rationale/assumption/ source market size: Source: Statistical Yearbook of Bangladesh a 40,000 buses Buses in Bangladesh -2010, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics Assume 90% of total market is unlikely or impractical to implement eco-driving and maintenance regimes over the post-project 10 years and achieve full GHG savings for a range of reasons including: existing bus is old and in very poor condition; lack of available finance to implement improved minus buses outside b 36,000 buses = a * 90% maintenance; perceived lack of time and target market expertise required to implement the changes; market inertia (resistance to change); etc. The remaining 10% of the total bus market is expected to be highly responsive to adoption of because of the clear cost savings and rapid pay-back period. c Market potential 4,000 4,000 buses = a b – Average GHG Average over 10 year period, from d Savings per bus per 15 CO2e t calculation of Direct Impact (see above). year e Project Life 10 years
d Lifetime Direct Savings 16,000 CO2e t = a * b * c Indirect Impact: The concept of eco-driving and associated routine maintenance has strong potential for replication in other mass transit lines currently planned for Bangladesh; and more broadly in the Bangladesh bus industry. Bottom-up Calculation on replications. Baseline Project With GEF Contribution Units Calculation Rationale/assumption/ source a Lifetime Direct and Post-Project Savings 23,250 CO2e t From calculations of Direct and Direct Post-Project Impacts. Assumes that operation and the level of GHG savings will be sustained, supported by ongoing eco-driving/maintenance training and financing mechanisms, as described above. b Replications 4 The estimate of 4 replications is based on an additional 3 BRT lines in Dhaka and 1 BRT line in Chittagong, as explained under Component 1a: Energy Efficient Buses. c Lifetime Indirect Savings 93,000 CO2e t = a * b Top-down Calculation Based on market potential and GEF Manual for Calculating GHG Benefits of GEF Transport Projects. Baseline Project With GEF Contribution Units Calculation Rationale/assumption/ source a market size: Buses in Bangladesh 40,000 buses Source: Statistical Yearbook of Bangladesh -2010, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics b minus buses outside target market 36,000 buses = a * 90% Assume 90% of total market is unlikely or impractical to implement eco-driving and maintenance regimes over the post-project 10 years and achieve full GHG savings for a range of reasons including: existing bus is old and in very poor condition; lack of available finance to implement improved maintenance; perceived lack of time and expertise required to implement the changes; market inertia (resistance to change); etc. The remaining 10% of the total bus market is expected to be highly responsive to adoption of because of the clear cost savings and rapid pay-back period. c Market potential 4,000 4,000 buses = a – b d Average GHG Savings per bus per year 15 CO2e t Average over 10 year period, from calculation of Direct Impact (see above). e Project Life 10 years
1.GEF5%2520CEO%2520Endorsement%2520Template-ASTUD%2520Dhaka_21Jul12a.docx