Scenario B: A short fall and recovery in 2014; Scenario C: A sustained recovery starting in 2013. Table C3 Cost of repayment mortgage based on different house price change and interest rate assumptions Interest Median Rate Price 90% LTV Price 5.39% Change (1) Historic Market Values 2011 £135,000 £820 £150,000 2012 £144,000 £875 £160,000 Scenario A: Continuous Fall 2013 £152,000 £136,800 £833 -5% 2014 £144,400 £129,960 £790 -5% 2015 £137,180 £123,462 £750 -5% 2016 £130,321 £117,289 £713 -5% Scenario B: Short Fall and recovery 2013 £152,000 £136,800 £833 -5.0% 2014 £153,520 £138,168 £839 +1% 2015 £156,590 £140,931 £856 +2% 2016 £161,288 £145,159 £882 +3% Scenario C: Sustained recovery 2013 £161,600 £145,440 £884 +1% 2014 £169,680 £152,712 £928 +5% 2015 £178,164 £160,348 £974 +5% 2016 £191,526 £172,374 £1,047 +7.5% Mortgage deals - July 2013 Example of first time buyer rates Nat 5.39% West 90% LTV 5yrs fixed Figure C1 indicates how the house price scenarios would impact on the starting amount of monthly mortgage repayments (assuming fixed interest rates). For example, with Scenario A (continuous fall), property monthly starting repayments (on a 5.39% mortgage) would fall from £833 to £713 (and property values would fall by around £21,679 or 14.3%). Figure C1 Monthly mortgage costs based on alternative scenarios Source: CLG House Price summary; Nat West online mortgage calculator This modelling is purely illustrative and shows how different scenarios would impact on the cost of repaying a mortgage. However, the ability of households to
Scenario B: A short fall and recovery in 2014; Scenario C: A sustained recovery starting in 2013. Table C3 Cost of repayment mortgage based on different house price change and interest rate assumptions Price Change Median Price 90% LTV Interest Rate 5.39% (1) Historic Market Values 2011 £150,000 £135,000 £820 2012 £160,000 £144,000 £875 Scenario A: Continuous Fall 2013 -5% £152,000 £136,800 £833 2014 -5% £144,400 £129,960 £790 2015 -5% £137,180 £123,462 £750 2016 -5% £130,321 £117,289 £713 Scenario B: Short Fall and recovery 2013 -5.0% £152,000 £136,800 £833 2014 +1% £153,520 £138,168 £839 2015 +2% £156,590 £140,931 £856 2016 +3% £161,288 £145,159 £882 Scenario C: Sustained recovery 2013 +1% £161,600 £145,440 £884 2014 +5% £169,680 £152,712 £928 2015 +5% £178,164 £160,348 £974 2016 +7.5% £191,526 £172,374 £1,047 Mortgage deals - July 2013 Example of first time buyer rates 5.39% Nat West 90% LTV 5yrs fixed Figure C1 indicates how the house price scenarios would impact on the starting amount of monthly mortgage repayments (assuming fixed interest rates). For example, with Scenario A (continuous fall), property monthly starting repayments (on a 5.39% mortgage) would fall from £833 to £713 (and property values would fall by around £21,679 or 14.3%). Figure C1 Monthly mortgage costs based on alternative scenarios Source: CLG House Price summary; Nat West online mortgage calculator This modelling is purely illustrative and shows how different scenarios would impact on the cost of repaying a mortgage. However, the ability of households to
Cheshire%20West%20and%20Chester%202013%20SHMA%20Final%20Version%2011%20July%202013%2013.30%20version%203.docx