Retrospective data from a survey on Higher tax levels are associated with Potential for recall bias, back up women’s knowledge, understanding later initiation and earlier cessation. to 40 years in some cases. Age and awareness of lifetime health SES Doesn’t capture failed attempts to 19 (when started smoking) needs (Saffron Survey, 1998). quit. Taxation has a stronger effect to Participant selection prevent or delay initiation among External validity Country All survey respondents who were those with intermediate education, Revenue Commissioners does not Ireland born after 1950 (so that sample’s and weakest among those with the break down the tax component into Design exposure matches price data). lowest education. excise and VAT for the period up to Single cross-sectional survey Participant characteristics Taxation has the strongest effect on 1973. Thus, authors have taken the containing retrospective cohort data cessation among those with the total tax component of the retail price N=703. Average age 34, ex-smokers Objective lowest education, an equal impact on and deflated it by the personal slightly older. 10% primary education, To investigate the role of tobacco those with other levels of education. consumption deflator to arrive at a 27% junior education, 40% real tax on tobacco. taxes in starting and quitting smoking secondary, 21% university. Author’s conclusion of SES impact and explores how tax effect differs by and current smokers more Tax was relatively low through the Results are extremely tentative, but it education likely to have lower levels of period, unclear whether the appears that the greater impact is education. 55% employment rate, relationship would continue with SES variables among those with intermediate 47.5% among current smokers. further increases from current levels education. Greatest effect on quitting Education (primary, junior (age 16), of taxation. Intervention for the lowest levels of education. secondary (age 18), University) Potential quitters had less cessation Tobacco taxation from 1960 Analyses support available. onwards. Duration analyses various – Only covers females. Length of study parametric duration models Covers a period of increasing 1960 to 1998 awareness of the impact of smoking, Outcomes unclear whether cessation was linked Ever smoked, age of initiation, and to taxation or increased awareness. cessation. Validity of author’s conclusion Results are extremely tentative
Age 19 (when started smoking) Country Ireland Design Single cross-sectional survey containing retrospective cohort data Objective To investigate the role of tobacco taxes in starting and quitting smoking and explores how tax effect differs by education SES variables Education (primary, junior (age 16), secondary (age 18), University) Analyses Duration analyses – various parametric duration models Retrospective data from a survey on women’s knowledge, understanding and awareness of lifetime health needs (Saffron Survey, 1998). Participant selection All survey respondents who were born after 1950 (so that sample’s exposure matches price data). Participant characteristics N=703. Average age 34, ex-smokers slightly older. 10% primary education, 27% junior education, 40% secondary, 21% university. and current smokers more likely to have lower levels of education. 55% employment rate, 47.5% among current smokers. Intervention Tobacco taxation from 1960 onwards. Length of study 1960 to 1998 Outcomes Ever smoked, age of initiation, and cessation. Higher tax levels are associated with later initiation and earlier cessation. SES Taxation has a stronger effect to prevent or delay initiation among those with intermediate education, and weakest among those with the lowest education. Taxation has the strongest effect on cessation among those with the lowest education, an equal impact on those with other levels of education. Author’s conclusion of SES impact Results are extremely tentative, but it appears that the greater impact is among those with intermediate education. Greatest effect on quitting for the lowest levels of education. Potential for recall bias, back up to 40 years in some cases. Doesn’t capture failed attempts to quit. External validity Revenue Commissioners does not break down the tax component into excise and VAT for the period up to 1973. Thus, authors have taken the total tax component of the retail price and deflated it by the personal consumption deflator to arrive at a real tax on tobacco. Tax was relatively low through the period, unclear whether the relationship would continue with further increases from current levels of taxation. Potential quitters had less cessation support available. Only covers females. Covers a period of increasing awareness of the impact of smoking, unclear whether cessation was linked to taxation or increased awareness. Validity of author’s conclusion Results are extremely tentative
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