Supplementary Material: City Risk and Transition Dar es Salaam, Tanzania Critical current Main social drivers Current risk Key constraints to risk climate-related risk management capacity management Urban flooding very Urbanization processes Low Population growth – high risk level and pressures (e.g. greatly outpacing the inadequate or missing local governments’ storm-water drainage capacity to provide systems, unregulated infrastructure and housing development services particularly in hazardous areas), exacerbated by high rates of Sea-level rise and Economic and Fair: city is engaged in High and lack of coastal erosion - high recreational awareness-raising and sustained funding (e.g. risk level, expected to opportunities associated on-the-ground adaptation the sea-wall is donor continue to rise as global with the coastline projects (e.g. funded, and currently temperatures rise construction of sea-walls only for a pilot phase). and groynes along the city centre coastline, mangrove rehabilitation). Heat stress - future Lacking studies. Low Limited ability to provide climate projections However, likely linked economic opportunities suggest it may have a to socio-economic for a growing population. high risk level factors that increase vulnerability to heat stress in a range of ways, for e.g., by limited access to cooling systems and energy for these, or by leading to pre-existing health conditions that increase vulnerability to heat stress. Food security: high risk Increasing Low-medium: Emerging Poor policy level, expected to related agricultural policies account for implementation and continue to rise as global failures in rural areas impacts of climate continued agricultural temperatures rise may further increase change on food costs and failures rural-urban migration, supply chain. Enhanced thus likely increasing social safety nets can competition over scarce support adaptation food resources measures for urban and peri-urban agriculture
Supplementary Material: City Risk and Transition Dar es Salaam, Tanzania Critical current climate-related risk Main social drivers Current risk management capacity Key constraints to risk management Urban flooding – very high risk level Urbanization processes and pressures (e.g. inadequate or missing storm-water drainage systems, unregulated housing development particularly in hazardous areas), exacerbated by high rates of Low Population growth greatly outpacing the local governments’ capacity to provide infrastructure and services Sea-level rise and coastal erosion - high risk level, expected to continue to rise as global temperatures rise Economic and recreational opportunities associated with the coastline Fair: city is engaged in awareness-raising and on-the-ground adaptation projects (e.g. construction of sea-walls and groynes along the city centre coastline, mangrove rehabilitation). High and lack of sustained funding (e.g. the sea-wall is donor funded, and currently only for a pilot phase). Heat stress - future climate projections suggest it may have a high risk level Lacking studies. However, likely linked to socio-economic factors that increase vulnerability to heat stress in a range of ways, for e.g., by limited access to cooling systems and energy for these, or by leading to pre-existing health conditions that increase vulnerability to heat stress. Low Limited ability to provide economic opportunities for a growing population. Food security: high risk level, expected to continue to rise as global temperatures rise Increasing agricultural failures in rural areas may further increase rural-urban migration, thus likely increasing competition over scarce food resources Low-medium: Emerging policies account for impacts of climate change on food costs and supply chain. Enhanced social safety nets can support adaptation measures for urban and peri-urban agriculture Poor policy implementation and continued agricultural failures related
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