General averaged across the landscape of a PSA. Instability in the atmosphere over a PSA. Dryness in the atmosphere over a PSA. Vapor pressure deficit Numbers of ignitions concentrated in a 24hour period in a PSA. Lightning sources Human sources Note on Interpreting the 7-Day Significant Fire Potential Product: Because it is not site specific, the 7-Day Significant Fire Potential Forecast is not intended to be interpreted as a fire weather forecast or a fire behavior forecast. It is not intended to be used for gauging safety due to fire activity. It does not necessarily reflect extreme conditions in different fuel types within any PSA. Rather, the 7-Day Significant Fire Potential Forecast simply depicts the daily risk of fires growing to meet the size ‘significant’ criteria in each PSA based on historical combinations of past contributing factors. Regional Preparedness Level Forecast Daily Preparedness Level for the Northwest geographic area is determined by the NWCC center manager and/or Operations Manager with guidance from the NWCC Predictive Services unit. That guidance is on objective assessment of the current demand and forecasts for future need of fire management resources from NWCC’s Fire Activity Forecast. Analysis of historical usage of fire management resources since 2004 was blended with numbers of reported ignitions and resulting large fires to model resource demand when similar conditions repeat themselves in the future. NWCC’s daily Regional Preparedness Level Forecast is available at: Monthly and Seasonal Significant Fire Potential Outlooks The Monthly and Seasonal significant Fire Potential outlook identifies geographic regions across the US likely to expect average, or below-average significant fire load during the following four months. Significant fires are defined as those severe enough to require mobilization of firefighting resources from outside the area the fire originates.
General averaged across the landscape of a PSA. Instability in the atmosphere over a PSA. Dryness in the atmosphere over a PSA. Vapor pressure deficit Numbers of ignitions concentrated in a 24hour period in a PSA. Lightning sources Human sources Note on Interpreting the 7-Day Significant Fire Potential Product: Because it is not site specific, the 7-Day Significant Fire Potential Forecast is not intended to be interpreted as a fire weather forecast or a fire behavior forecast. It is not intended to be used for gauging safety due to fire activity. It does not necessarily reflect extreme conditions in different fuel types within any PSA. Rather, the 7-Day Significant Fire Potential Forecast simply depicts the daily risk of fires growing to meet the ‘significant’ size criteria in each PSA based on historical combinations of past contributing factors. Regional Preparedness Level Forecast Daily Preparedness Level for the Northwest geographic area is determined by the NWCC center manager and/or Operations Manager with guidance from the NWCC Predictive Services unit. That guidance is on objective assessment of the current demand and forecasts for future need of fire management resources from NWCC’s Fire Activity Forecast. Analysis of historical usage of fire management resources since 2004 was blended with numbers of reported ignitions and resulting large fires to model resource demand when similar conditions repeat themselves in the future. NWCC’s daily Regional Preparedness Level Forecast is available at: Monthly and Seasonal Significant Fire Potential Outlooks The Monthly and Seasonal significant Fire Potential outlook identifies geographic regions across the US likely to expect average, or below-average significant fire load during the following four months. Significant fires are defined as those severe enough to require mobilization of firefighting resources from outside the area the fire originates.
2018_nw_aop_pub.docx