16 45 52 65 & over <$50,000 36 53 41 INCOME 30 46 49 $50,000-$100,000 34 47 47 $100,000 & over Yes 18 51 43 UNION HOUSEHOLD 82 46 48 No Democrat 37 89 8 PARTY 33 8 88 Republican 31 42 46 Independent Liberal 26 84 10 POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY 39 52 40 Moderate 35 16 81 Conservative Review the voter data shown above. What groups helped to elect Trump? Age is an important demographic to consider in elections. See the following graphs from a piece titled may be the last presidential election dominated by Boomers and prior generations” “This by Richard Fry at the Pew Research Center (August 2016). Broadly speaking, demographics changes make political both predictable and unpredictable. If Pew Research Center or Gallup can predict how a certain demographic will vote and can determine the proportion of the total vote that demographic will have, the organization can predict the outcome of races. Still, much of this is made unpredictable because voter turnout is not guaranteed. There may be more of a certain group likely to vote a certain way, but if that group stays home on election day, it doesn’t matter. If we acknowledge that demographic information can provide some good guidelines for what to expect and a lens for understanding how candidates are trying to appeal to voters (certain groups of voters), we should also remember that demographic info need always come with the disclaimer: if that group turns out to vote.” “only
65 & over 16 45 52 INCOME <$50,000 36 53 41 $50,000-$100,000 30 46 49 $100,000 & over 34 47 47 UNION HOUSEHOLD Yes 18 51 43 No 82 46 48 PARTY Democrat 37 89 8 Republican 33 8 88 Independent 31 42 46 POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Liberal 26 84 10 Moderate 39 52 40 Conservative 35 16 81 Review the voter data shown above. What groups helped to elect Trump? Age is an important demographic to consider in elections. See the following graphs from a piece titled “This may be the last presidential election dominated by Boomers and prior generations” by Richard Fry at the Pew Research Center (August 2016). Broadly speaking, demographics changes make political both predictable and unpredictable. If Pew Research Center or Gallup can predict how a certain demographic will vote and can determine the proportion of the total vote that demographic will have, the organization can predict the outcome of races. Still, much of this is made unpredictable because voter turnout is not guaranteed. There may be more of a certain group likely to vote a certain way, but if that group stays home on election day, it doesn’t matter. If we acknowledge that demographic information can provide some good guidelines for what to expect and a lens for understanding how candidates are trying to appeal to voters (certain groups of voters), we should also remember that demographic info need always come with the disclaimer: “only if that group turns out to vote.”
2018-Fall-Election-Workbook-Part-2-1.docx