Key Assumptions and Implications Major assumptions underlying the projections and selected implications include: Economic Growth Global economic growth is assumed in the projections at a 3.3-percent average annual rate over the next decade. However, the assumptions reflect a dichotomy between relatively weak longrun economic growth in developed countries and stronger growth in developing countries. As a result, developing countries become a larger part of the world economy. Relatively high growth rates in China, India, and other areas of developing Asia, Africa, and Latin America underpin the anticipated macroeconomic gains for developing countries. Among developed countries, Japan’s economic growth continues to face constraints from long-term structural rigidities, a political process that makes economic reform difficult, and an aging population. Growth in the European Union (EU) will be limited by the ongoing financial instability and adjustments in the Eurozone. The U.S. economy is projected to grow at an average rate of about 2.6 percent over the next decade. With slower growth in the United States than in the world economy, the U.S. share of global gross domestic product (GDP) falls from about 26 percent currently to 24 percent at the end of the projection period. Steady global economic growth supports longer term gains in world food demand, global agricultural trade, and U.S. agricultural exports. Economic growth in developing countries is especially important because food consumption and feed use are particularly responsive to income growth in those countries, with movement away from traditional staple foods and increased diversification of diets. Population Stronger global economic growth over the next decade contributes to the continued slowing of population gains around the world as birth rates decline. Growth in global population is projected to average about 1.0 percent per year compared with an average annual rate of 1.2 percent in the last decade. Population growth rates in most developing countries remain above those in the rest of the world. As a consequence, the share of world population accounted for by developing countries increases to 82 percent by 2022, up from 80 percent in 2010. Population gains in developing countries, along with increased urbanization and expansion of the middle class, are particularly important for the projected growth in global food demand. Populations in developing countries, in contrast to those in more-developed countries, tend to be both younger and undergoing more rapid urbanization, factors that generally lead to the expansion and diversification of food consumption.
Key Assumptions and Implications Major assumptions underlying the projections and selected implications include: Economic Growth Global economic growth is assumed in the projections at a 3.3-percent average annual rate over the next decade. However, the assumptions reflect a dichotomy between relatively weak longrun economic growth in developed countries and stronger growth in developing countries. As a result, developing countries become a larger part of the world economy. Relatively high growth rates in China, India, and other areas of developing Asia, Africa, and Latin America underpin the anticipated macroeconomic gains for developing countries. Among developed countries, Japan’s economic growth continues to face constraints from long-term structural rigidities, a political process that makes economic reform difficult, and an aging population. Growth in the European Union (EU) will be limited by the ongoing financial instability and adjustments in the Eurozone. The U.S. economy is projected to grow at an average rate of about 2.6 percent over the next decade. With slower growth in the United States than in the world economy, the U.S. share of global gross domestic product (GDP) falls from about 26 percent currently to 24 percent at the end of the projection period. Steady global economic growth supports longer term gains in world food demand, global agricultural trade, and U.S. agricultural exports. Economic growth in developing countries is especially important because food consumption and feed use are particularly responsive to income growth in those countries, with movement away from traditional staple foods and increased diversification of diets. Population Stronger global economic growth over the next decade contributes to the continued slowing of population gains around the world as birth rates decline. Growth in global population is projected to average about 1.0 percent per year compared with an average annual rate of 1.2 percent in the last decade. Population growth rates in most developing countries remain above those in the rest of the world. As a consequence, the share of world population accounted for by developing countries increases to 82 percent by 2022, up from 80 percent in 2010. Population gains in developing countries, along with increased urbanization and expansion of the middle class, are particularly important for the projected growth in global food demand. Populations in developing countries, in contrast to those in more-developed countries, tend to be both younger and undergoing more rapid urbanization, factors that generally lead to the expansion and diversification of food consumption.
USDAAgriculturalProjections2022.docx