APPENDIX A: SUMMARY OF IMPACTS BY SCENARIO Technical advice Transport modelling Land use modelling Energy Environment and Financial analysis Socioeconomic impacts population health Scenario Compared 2046 37% more car trips 2.5m more jobs and 800MW of additional Current DALYs due Current trends of 70% of population has to 2015 base case 3 times more trips 3.4m more people dispatchable to emissions of vehicle registration, sufficient access to on PT Most growth in generation required 5425 licensing and services 81% of by car, Melbourne suburbs NPV of $588m 96% of in accidents continue 2.2m jobs forecast to 19% by PT Regional growth investment needed metro area and be in transport, trade Average journey mainly in towns most for people and travel-related time is 20 minutes with high or business medium SES Compared Electric Virtually no change Assumed similar to 51% increase in GWh 3632 DALYs Net impact of -$8.1b 10% improvement in to 2046 Avenue from base case base case ~6200MW avoided per year access to services base case required for Fuel excise impact of No change in GSP $706m annual use -$6.5b economic benefit $6.4–8.8b additional Increase in TAC investment needed revenue of $70m Private 8% more car trips 11-15% in 56% increase in GWh 3250 DALYs Net impact of 32% improvement in Drive Slower CBD traffic household locations ~6700MW avoided per year access to services 24% fewer PT trips 13-17% shift in job required for $632m annual Fuel excise impact of $14.9 billion (2%) Average journey locations use $6.9 economic benefit -$6.5b increase in GSP takes 16 minutes Lower marginal Decrease in TAC 9.7b additional utility of travel time revenue of -$5.6b investment needed doesn't result in greater movement Fleet 28% of trips by PT 12-14% shift in 50% increase in GWh 3781 DALYs Net impact of $12.8b 7% improvement in Street 91-93% fewer cars household locations $5.2b additional avoided per year access to services needed 14-15% shift in job investment needed $735m annual Fuel excise impact of $14.9 billion (2%) 54% higher average locations economic benefit -$6.5b increase in GSP road speed
APPENDIX A: SUMMARY OF IMPACTS BY SCENARIO Technical advice Transport modelling Land use modelling Energy Environment and population health Financial analysis Socioeconomic impacts Scenario Compared to 2015 2046 base case 37% more car trips 3 times more trips on PT 81% of by car, 19% by PT Average journey time is 20 minutes 2.5m more jobs and 3.4m more people Most growth in Melbourne suburbs Regional growth mainly in towns 800MW of additional dispatchable generation required NPV of $588m investment needed Current DALYs due to emissions of 5425 96% of in metro area and most for people with high or medium SES Current trends of vehicle registration, licensing and accidents continue 70% of population has sufficient access to services 2.2m jobs forecast to be in transport, trade and travel-related business Compared to 2046 base case Electric Avenue Virtually no change from base case Assumed similar to base case 51% increase in GWh ~6200MW required for use $6.4–8.8b additional investment needed 3632 DALYs avoided $706m annual economic benefit Net impact of -$8.1b per year Fuel excise impact of -$6.5b Increase in TAC revenue of $70m 10% improvement in access to services No change in GSP Private Drive 8% more car trips Slower CBD traffic 24% fewer PT trips Average journey takes 16 minutes 11-15% in household locations 13-17% shift in job locations Lower marginal utility of travel time doesn't result in greater movement 56% increase in GWh ~6700MW required for use $6.9 9.7b additional investment needed 3250 DALYs avoided $632m annual economic benefit Net impact of per year Fuel excise impact of -$6.5b Decrease in TAC revenue of -$5.6b 32% improvement in access to services $14.9 billion (2%) increase in GSP Fleet Street 28% of trips by PT 91-93% fewer cars needed 54% higher average road speed 12-14% shift in household locations 14-15% shift in job locations 50% increase in GWh $5.2b additional investment needed 3781 DALYs avoided $735m annual economic benefit Net impact of $12.8b per year Fuel excise impact of -$6.5b 7% improvement in access to services $14.9 billion (2%) increase in GSP
Vehicles_Infrastructure_Advice_-_Evidence_Base_Report_August_2018_-_Accessible_Version.docx