Cumulative abatement from these measures is estimated to be 28 Mt CO2-e over the period 2019–20 to – Projections of abatement from the Emissions Reduction Fund are not included to avoid disclosing potentially • market sensitive information, and because the safeguard element of the Fund has yet to be decided. The Government will consider including estimates of abatement in future projections if it is possible to do so • without reducing the effectiveness of the Emissions Reduction Fund auctions. Changes from the 2013 Projections In the 2014–15 Projections, projected transport emissions in 2019–20 are 7 Mt CO2-e higher than in the 2013 • Projections. This difference arises because: Projected emissions are 8 Mt CO2-e higher because oil prices are assumed to be This has resulted in a – small increase in projected transport activity, and lower projected use of low emissions fuels and hybrid vehicles. Projected emissions are 1 Mt CO2-e higher because emissions from pipeline transport have been accounted – under transport for the first time, in accordance with the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. In the 2013 Projections, emissions from pipeline transport were included under direct combustion. Projected emissions are 2 Mt CO2-e due to weaker projected shipping activity. –
– Cumulative abatement from these measures is estimated to be 28 Mt CO2-e over the period 2019–20 to • Projections of abatement from the Emissions Reduction Fund are not included to avoid disclosing potentially market sensitive information, and because the safeguard element of the Fund has yet to be decided. • The Government will consider including estimates of abatement in future projections if it is possible to do so without reducing the effectiveness of the Emissions Reduction Fund auctions. Changes from the 2013 Projections • In the 2014–15 Projections, projected transport emissions in 2019–20 are 7 Mt CO2-e higher than in the 2013 Projections. This difference arises because: – Projected emissions are 8 Mt CO2-e higher because oil prices are assumed to be This has resulted in a small increase in projected transport activity, and lower projected use of low emissions fuels and hybrid vehicles. – Projected emissions are 1 Mt CO2-e higher because emissions from pipeline transport have been accounted under transport for the first time, in accordance with the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. In the 2013 Projections, emissions from pipeline transport were included under direct combustion. – Projected emissions are 2 Mt CO2-e due to weaker projected shipping activity.
transport-emissions-projections-2014-15.docx