APPENDIX A: SUMMARY OF IMPACTS BY SCENARIO Technical advice Transport modelling Land use modelling Energy Environment and Financial analysis Socioeconomic impacts population health Scenario Compared 2046 37% more car 2.5m more jobs and of additional Current DALYs due Current trends of 70% of population has to 2015 base case 3 times more trips 3.4m more people dispatchable to emissions of vehicle registration, sufficient access to on PT Most growth in generation required 5425 licensing and services 81% of trips by car, Melbourne suburbs NPV of $588m 96% of these in accidents continue 2.2m jobs forecast to 19% by PT Regional growth investment needed metro area and be in transport, Average journey mainly in towns most for people and travel-related time is 20 minutes with high or business medium SES Compared Electric Virtually no change Assumed similar to 51% increase in GWh 3632 DALYs Net impact of -$8.1b 10% improvement in to 2046 Avenue from base case base case ~6200MW avoided per year access to services base case required for Fuel excise impact of No change in GSP $706m annual use -$6.5b economic benefit $6.4–8.8b additional Increase in TAC investment needed revenue of $70m Private 8% more car trips 11-15% shift in 56% increase in GWh 3250 DALYs Net impact of 32% improvement in Drive Slower CBD traffic household locations ~6700MW extra avoided per year access to services 24% fewer PT trips 13-17% shift in job required for $632m annual Fuel excise impact of $14.9 billion (2%) Average journey locations use $6.9 economic benefit -$6.5b increase in GSP 16 minutes marginal utility Decrease in TAC 9.7b additional of travel time doesn't revenue of -$5.6b investment needed result in greater movement 28% of by PT 12-14% shift in 50% increase in GWh 3781 avoided Net impact of $12.8b 7% improvement in Street 91-93% fewer cars household locations $5.2b additional $735m annual per year access to services needed 14-15% in job investment needed economic benefit Fuel excise impact of $14.9 billion (2%) 54% higher average locations -$6.5b increase in GSP road speed
APPENDIX A: SUMMARY OF IMPACTS BY SCENARIO Technical advice Transport modelling Land use modelling Energy Environment and population health Financial analysis Socioeconomic impacts Scenario Compared to 2015 2046 base case 37% more car 3 times more trips on PT 81% of trips by car, 19% by PT Average journey time is 20 minutes 2.5m more jobs and 3.4m more people Most growth in Melbourne suburbs Regional growth mainly in towns of additional dispatchable generation required NPV of $588m investment needed Current DALYs due to emissions of 5425 96% of these in metro area and most for people with high or medium SES Current trends of vehicle registration, licensing and accidents continue 70% of population has sufficient access to services 2.2m jobs forecast to be in transport, and travel-related business Compared to 2046 base case Electric Avenue Virtually no change from base case Assumed similar to base case 51% increase in GWh ~6200MW required for use $6.4–8.8b additional investment needed 3632 DALYs avoided $706m annual economic benefit Net impact of -$8.1b per year Fuel excise impact of -$6.5b Increase in TAC revenue of $70m 10% improvement in access to services No change in GSP Private Drive 8% more car trips Slower CBD traffic 24% fewer PT trips Average journey 16 minutes 11-15% shift in household locations 13-17% shift in job locations marginal utility of travel time doesn't result in greater movement 56% increase in GWh ~6700MW extra required for use $6.9 9.7b additional investment needed 3250 DALYs avoided $632m annual economic benefit Net impact of per year Fuel excise impact of -$6.5b Decrease in TAC revenue of -$5.6b 32% improvement in access to services $14.9 billion (2%) increase in GSP Street 28% of by PT 91-93% fewer cars needed 54% higher average road speed 12-14% shift in household locations 14-15% in job locations 50% increase in GWh $5.2b additional investment needed 3781 avoided $735m annual economic benefit Net impact of $12.8b per year Fuel excise impact of -$6.5b 7% improvement in access to services $14.9 billion (2%) increase in GSP
Vehicles%20Infrastructure%20Advice%20-%20Evidence%20Base%20Report%20August%202018%20-%20Accessible%20Version_0.docx