PART 3 - Risk Analysis of Development Projects Fri. Oct. 16 Lecture 7 Outline Assessing Project Risks Sensitivity Analysis Scenario Analysis Monte-Carlo Simulations Risk Analysis by Monte-Carlo Simulation Building a forecasting model Selecting key risk variables Running simulations Assessing correlation conditions among risk variables Analyzing the results of simulations Readings Savvakis C. Savvides, Risk Analysis in Investment Appraisal, Project Appraisal, Volume 9 Number 1, pages 3-18, March 1994 Johnathan Mun, Applied Risk Analysis, (2002) Wyley Finance ,Chapter 5 Assignment #7 Assessing Risks in project appraisal (1) Fri. Oct. 23 Lecture 8 Outline Crystal Ball (CB) to select key risk variables developing Tornado Charts developing Spider Charts Simultaneous assessment of project sensitivity to multiple risk variables CB to build a custom probability distribution from available data Getting and formatting the historical data Identifying trends and disturbances Determining range and intervals of the errors frequency distributions computing and adjusting the errors probability distributions Readings
PART 3 - Risk Analysis of Development Projects Fri. Oct. 16 Lecture 7 Outline Assessing Project Risks Sensitivity Analysis Scenario Analysis Monte-Carlo Simulations Risk Analysis by Monte-Carlo Simulation Building a forecasting model Selecting key risk variables Running simulations Assessing correlation conditions among risk variables Analyzing the results of simulations Readings Savvakis C. Savvides, Risk Analysis in Investment Appraisal, Project Appraisal, Volume 9 Number 1, pages 3-18, March 1994 Johnathan Mun, Applied Risk Analysis, (2002) Wyley Finance ,Chapter 5 Assignment #7 Assessing Risks in project appraisal (1) Fri. Oct. 23 Lecture 8 Outline Crystal Ball (CB) to select key risk variables developing Tornado Charts developing Spider Charts Simultaneous assessment of project sensitivity to multiple risk variables CB to build a custom probability distribution from available data Getting and formatting the historical data Identifying trends and disturbances Determining range and intervals of the errors frequency distributions computing and adjusting the errors probability distributions Readings
URPL-GP.2652.001.docx