Comparison with social welfare scenarios The social welfare scenario is similar to the capitalist scenario as per capita public spending and consumption on children would decline and public transfers and consumption to the elderly would rise sharply. The major difference between the capitalist approach and the social welfare approach is that the transfers to the elderly increases even more sharply. The public transfer inflows reaches 35 percent in 2050 under the social welfare approach (Figures 14 and 15) Figure 14. Public transfers by age, Thailand, selected years, social welfare scenario. Constraints are imposed to insure that public transfer inflows do not exceed 35 percent and public debt does not exceed 90 percent of GDP. Figure 15. Normalized consumption by age, Thailand, social welfare scenario Figure 16 shows the results for the public transfer inflows as a share of GDP for all different scenarios. The size of the Thai government is about 17 percent of GDP in 2011. The government size constraints binds in 2050 in case of social welfare transformation assumption. Without constraints, the government size reaches 44 percent and 27 percent in 2060 in case of social welfare transformation and capital transformation, respectively.
Comparison with social welfare scenarios The social welfare scenario is similar to the capitalist scenario as per capita public spending and consumption on children would decline and public transfers and consumption to the elderly would rise sharply. The major difference between the capitalist approach and the social welfare approach is that the transfers to the elderly increases even more sharply. The public transfer inflows reaches 35 percent in 2050 under the social welfare approach (Figures 14 and 15) Figure 14. Public transfers by age, Thailand, selected years, social welfare scenario. Constraints are imposed to insure that public transfer inflows do not exceed 35 percent and public debt does not exceed 90 percent of GDP. Figure 15. Normalized consumption by age, Thailand, social welfare scenario Figure 16 shows the results for the public transfer inflows as a share of GDP for all different scenarios. The size of the Thai government is about 17 percent of GDP in 2011. The government size constraints binds in 2050 in case of social welfare transformation assumption. Without constraints, the government size reaches 44 percent and 27 percent in 2060 in case of social welfare transformation and capital transformation, respectively.
WP16-02.docx