Introduction The Challenge All of our experience is with the past, but all of our decisions are about the future. Leaders at every level have usually assumed that their past experience is a fairly reliable guide to the future—the future will simply be a bigger and better version of the world with which they are familiar. This kind of continuity of change, however, can no longer be taken for granted. In area after area today, we are confronted by we really do know what will happen, true uncertainty: not but we know it is happening more quickly! In the first part of the 21st century we are entering a very different world. The pace of change is accelerating. For example, in the fields of information technology, communications, and biotechnology, major advances are occurring in the range of every 12 to 24 months, in some cases making what we have known obsolete. Over the next 25 years certain technologies could advance almost a million-fold. With changes of this magnitude, the world becomes a fundamentally different place - one that we have little idea of how to cope with. Throughout history it has been difficult for individuals and organizations to adapt to always change consider the challenges faced in the shift from an agrarian to an industrial society a – – shift that took more than 50 years to complete and yet, the transition was problematic. entire A more immediate example is the evolution of the mobile trial (Figure 1). It has gone from it being a mobile landline to an extremely a smart mobile phone in just under 30 years! Figure 1
Introduction The Challenge All of our experience is with the past, but all of our decisions are about the future. Leaders at every level have usually assumed that their past experience is a fairly reliable guide to the future—the future will simply be a bigger and better version of the world with which they are familiar. This kind of continuity of change, however, can no longer be taken for granted. In area after area today, we are confronted by true uncertainty: we really do not know what will happen, but we know it is happening more quickly! In the first part of the 21st century we are entering a very different world. The pace of change is accelerating. For example, in the fields of information technology, communications, and biotechnology, major advances are occurring in the range of every 12 to 24 months, in some cases making what we have known obsolete. Over the next 25 years certain technologies could advance almost a million-fold. With changes of this magnitude, the world becomes a fundamentally different place - one that we have little idea of how to cope with. Throughout history it has always been difficult for individuals and organizations to adapt to change – consider the challenges faced in the shift from an agrarian to an industrial society – a shift that took more than 50 years to complete and yet, the entire transition was problematic. A more immediate example is the evolution of the mobile (Figure 1). It has gone from it being a mobile landline to an extremely a smart mobile phone in just under 30 years! Figure 1 trial
Using-Futures-Tools-Workbook-final-done-June-8-2015.docx