Vulnerability assessment matrix summary for estuaries Pressure Exposed to source Degree of Sensitivity to source Adaptive capacity Adaptive capacity Residual Level of confidence — of pressure exposure to of pressure natural management vulnerability in supporting — source of evidence pressure Commercial Yes locally Low Low Good Good Low Good — tourism Defence Yes locally Low Low Good Good Low Good — activities Traditional Yes Great Low Low can be higher Good can be Good Low Moderate — — — use Barrier Reef where other poorer where other catchment wide, pressures exist pressures exist localised higher pressure Climate Yes entire Very high High to very high Poor if climate Poor if effective High to very high Poor — — — — — change region, multiple without for species and change/sea level global emissions expressions of effective habitats on terrestrial rise is rapid, estuary control not achieved, High uncertainty pressure such as emissions margin, at limits of condition and and if estuary has surrounds predictions sea level rise, mitigation that tolerance ranges, and function is poor, poor natural of sea level rise, extreme climate/ avoids estuaries with narrow catchment is highly adaptive capacity temperature and storms, elevated dangerous tidal range, low developed, estuary ocean acidity rates of temperatures, climate gradient coastal plain, is vulnerable type, change and end ocean change landward subject to frequent points. acidification, development storm disturbances, altered ocean constraints, highly low gradient coastal Specific community currents developed plain, highly tolerance thresholds catchment, poor tidal seasonal climate for parameters that flushing, higher rates with biotic are predicted to of sea level rise, and community at change are not well other pressures. tolerance margins understood. High with Moderate for Moderate if Moderate where High — — — — best case estuaries with greater pressure mitigated natural adaptive Analysis of potential emission tidal range, tidal by emissions capacity is moderate shoreline retreat and mitigation flushing, water control, estuary/ and legislative and subsequent mixing, lower catchment planning frameworks movement of sediment retention, condition/function can enable shoreline estuarine habitat limited catchment, good, resilient retreat/landward inland has not been landward estuary type, storm migration of estuary done. development, steeper disturbances coastal plain, infrequent, higher species-broad gradient coastal tolerances, lower plain, less seasonal rates of sea-level rise climate, biota tolerant
Vulnerability assessment matrix summary for estuaries Pressure Exposed to source of pressure Degree of exposure to source of pressure Sensitivity to source of pressure Adaptive capacity — natural Adaptive capacity — management Residual vulnerability Level of confidence in supporting evidence Commercial tourism Yes — locally Low Low Good Good Low Good Defence activities Yes — locally Low Low Good Good Low Good Traditional use Yes — Great Barrier Reef catchment wide, localised higher pressure Low Low — can be higher where other pressures exist Good — can be poorer where other pressures exist Good Low Moderate Climate change Yes — entire region, multiple expressions of pressure such as sea level rise, extreme climate/ storms, elevated temperatures, ocean acidification, altered ocean currents Very high — without effective emissions mitigation that avoids dangerous climate change High to very high — for species and habitats on terrestrial margin, at limits of tolerance ranges, and estuaries with narrow tidal range, low gradient coastal plain, landward development constraints, highly developed catchment, poor tidal flushing, higher rates of sea level rise, and other pressures. Poor — if climate change/sea level rise is rapid, estuary condition and function is poor, catchment is highly developed, estuary is vulnerable type, subject to frequent storm disturbances, low gradient coastal plain, highly seasonal climate with biotic community at tolerance margins Poor — if effective global emissions control not achieved, and if estuary has poor natural adaptive capacity High to very high Poor High uncertainty surrounds predictions of sea level rise, temperature and ocean acidity rates of change and end points. Specific community tolerance thresholds for parameters that are predicted to change are not well understood. Analysis of potential shoreline retreat and subsequent movement of estuarine habitat inland has not been done. High — with best case emission mitigation Moderate — for estuaries with greater tidal range, tidal flushing, water mixing, lower sediment retention, limited catchment, landward development, steeper coastal plain, species-broad tolerances, lower rates of sea-level rise Moderate — if pressure mitigated by emissions control, estuary/ catchment condition/function good, resilient estuary type, storm disturbances infrequent, higher gradient coastal plain, less seasonal climate, biota tolerant Moderate — where natural adaptive capacity is moderate and legislative and planning frameworks can enable shoreline retreat/landward migration of estuary High
Vulnerability-Assessment-Estuaries-2016.docx