In FL models from 1999-2007, precipitation 36 months before nest initiation had a negative relationship with probability of colonization. This may or may not be inconsistent with the SE model results, since the time periods over which rainfall was measured were different. The relationship between rainfall and colony attractiveness may be highly dynamic and even colony- or region- specific. Additionally, the effect of precipitation 36 months before, 12 months before, and 5 months on stork colonies may not be independent. The wetland type and recharge rate, habitat availability, foraging pattern and behavior further complicate the relationship. For example, the influence of precipitation on coastal stork colonies may be less prominent than inland colonies because coastal colonies always have tidal habitats to forage in (Bryan & Robinette, 2008). At minimum, we feel it was very important to include precipitation variables in the models to control for their local effect when estimating the effect of other more management-specific variables like colony site characteristics. We suggest that the effects of local precipitation and hydrology can probably only be accurately understood using water level information in local wetlands. There are currently so few gauges in wetlands that this kind of analysis is impossible on the scale of the breeding range of storks. Focused studies are badly needed for understanding these relationships outside of south Florida, especially since altered precipitation patterns are likely to occur as a result of global change. Colony longevity, size, and dynamics with nearby colonies Longevity was a strong positive factor influencing colonization in both SE and FL models, showing that independent of other variables, the longer the colony has been established, the less likely it will go extinct and the more likely it will be re-colonized following temporary abandonment. It is unclear what attributes of longevity make older colonies more attractive. It is possible that storks have a better chance of re-locating previous mates at the beginning of the nesting season at the more stable colonies, or that longer colonies provide storks with the opportunity to enhance breeding success through social dominance or knowledge of local food sources. Longer colonies may also simply tend to have more successful reproduction, and that premium on lifetime reproductive success may make storks return more reliably to these high productivity sites. In any case, our results indicate that older colonies are inherently stable, and therefore more valuable to stork individuals and populations than younger ones. Older colonies should therefore receive the highest conservation and management priority.
In FL models from 1999-2007, precipitation 36 months before nest initiation had a negative relationship with probability of colonization. This may or may not be inconsistent with the SE model results, since the time periods over which rainfall was measured were different. The relationship between rainfall and colony attractiveness may be highly dynamic and even colony- or region- specific. Additionally, the effect of precipitation 36 months before, 12 months before, and 5 months on stork colonies may not be independent. The wetland type and recharge rate, habitat availability, foraging pattern and behavior further complicate the relationship. For example, the influence of precipitation on coastal stork colonies may be less prominent than inland colonies because coastal colonies always have tidal habitats to forage in (Bryan & Robinette, 2008). At minimum, we feel it was very important to include precipitation variables in the models to control for their local effect when estimating the effect of other more management-specific variables like colony site characteristics. We suggest that the effects of local precipitation and hydrology can probably only be accurately understood using water level information in local wetlands. There are currently so few gauges in wetlands that this kind of analysis is impossible on the scale of the breeding range of storks. Focused studies are badly needed for understanding these relationships outside of south Florida, especially since altered precipitation patterns are likely to occur as a result of global change. Colony longevity, size, and dynamics with nearby colonies Longevity was a strong positive factor influencing colonization in both SE and FL models, showing that independent of other variables, the longer the colony has been established, the less likely it will go extinct and the more likely it will be re-colonized following temporary abandonment. It is unclear what attributes of longevity make older colonies more attractive. It is possible that storks have a better chance of re-locating previous mates at the beginning of the nesting season at the more stable colonies, or that longer colonies provide storks with the opportunity to enhance breeding success through social dominance or knowledge of local food sources. Longer colonies may also simply tend to have more successful reproduction, and that premium on lifetime reproductive success may make storks return more reliably to these high productivity sites. In any case, our results indicate that older colonies are inherently stable, and therefore more valuable to stork individuals and populations than younger ones. Older colonies should therefore receive the highest conservation and management priority.
WOST%20Final%20Report_General.docx