APPENDIX A: SUMMARY OF IMPACTS BY SCENARIO Technical advice topic Transport modelling Land use modelling Energy Environment and Financial analysis Socioeconomic impacts population health Scenario Compared 2046 37% more car 2.5m more 800MW of Current Current trends 70% of to 2015 base case trips jobs and 3.4m additional DALYs due of vehicle population has 3 times more more people dispatchable to emissions registration, sufficient access trips on PT Most growth generation of 5425 licensing and to services 81% of trips in Melbourne required 96% of accidents 2.2m jobs by car, 19% by suburbs NPV of $588m these in continue forecast to be in PT Regional investment metro area transport, trade Average growth mainly needed and most and journey time in towns for people business is 20 minutes with high or medium SES Compared Electric Virtually no Assumed 51% increase in 3632 DALYs Net impact of 10% Avenue change from similar to base GWh avoided $8.1b per year improvement in to 2046 base case base case case ~6200MW Fuel excise access to $706m extra required impact of services annual for No change in economic Increase in GSP benefit use TAC revenue $6.4–8.8b of $70m additional investment needed Private 8% more car 11-15% shift in 56% increase in 3250 Net impact of 32% Drive trips household GWh avoided per improvement in Slower CBD locations ~6700MW $632m year access to traffic 13-17% shift in required for annual services job locations
APPENDIX A: SUMMARY OF IMPACTS BY SCENARIO Technical advice topic Transport modelling Land use modelling Energy Environment and population health Financial analysis Socioeconomic impacts Scenario Compared to 2015 2046 base case 37% more car trips 3 times more trips on PT 81% of trips by car, 19% by PT Average journey time is 20 minutes 2.5m more jobs and 3.4m more people Most growth in Melbourne suburbs Regional growth mainly in towns 800MW of additional dispatchable generation required NPV of $588m investment needed Current DALYs due to emissions of 5425 96% of these in metro area and most for people with high or medium SES Current trends of vehicle registration, licensing and accidents continue 70% of population has sufficient access to services 2.2m jobs forecast to be in transport, trade and business Compared to 2046 base case Electric Avenue Virtually no change from base case Assumed similar to base case 51% increase in GWh ~6200MW extra required for use $6.4–8.8b additional investment needed 3632 DALYs avoided $706m annual economic benefit Net impact of per year Fuel excise impact of Increase in TAC revenue of $70m 10% improvement in access to services No change in GSP Private Drive 8% more car trips Slower CBD traffic 11-15% shift in household locations 13-17% shift in job locations 56% increase in GWh ~6700MW required for 3250 avoided $632m annual Net impact of per year 32% improvement in access to services $8.1b
Vehicles%20Infrastructure%20Advice%20-%20Evidence%20Base%20Report%20August%202018%20-%20Accessible%20Version.docx