Table Matrix of Scenarios Investigated Retirements Natural Gas / CO2 Allowance Scenarios(a) Imports and Exports Oil Prices Costs Nuclear Oil and Coal Average of three years of historical interchange values for New York AC ties, CSC, NNC, HG, and Phase II(b) EIA reference 2021 A. Business as Base: $20/ NG and oil prices Usual Highest monthly diurnal values None(b) None short ton of 2013 or 2014 for the Maritimes All resources are curtailable if LMP <$10/MWh(b) B. Most Double the FCA #9 resources and Favorable reference NG and oil existing wind: Retire Pilgrim, to Offshore Wind prices Seabrook, and Millstone; replace them with High: $40/ Same as above gas units at specific None short ton C. Favorable to substations proportionally EIA high oil prices OSW (keeping total system capacity constant while adding offshore wind) D. Most FCA #9 resources and all Half the reference Unfavorable to renewables in the queue NG and oil prices OSW with “active” status(d) as Low: $10/ Same as above None(c) of April 1, 2015: Replace short ton the carbon-heavy capacity E. Unfavorable to EIA low oil prices with natural gas OSW combined-cycle capacity (a) Scenario names are consistent with the original request from the Massachusetts Clean Energy Center. (b) Cross-Sound Cable (CSC), Norwalk–Northport Cable (NNC), and Highgate (HG). Phase II refers to Hydro-Québec Phase II. LMP refers to locational marginal price. (c) Pilgrim is not retired consistent with FCA #9. A total of 677 MW of base load nuclear generation could serve as a proxy for higher levels of energy efficiency (EE), wind, and imports. (d) Block Island Wind was not modeled because it is a non-FERC jurisdictional project. Cape Wind was not modeled neither.
Table Matrix of Scenarios Investigated Scenarios(a) Natural Gas / Oil Prices Imports and Exports Retirements CO2 Allowance Costs Nuclear Oil and Coal A. Business as Usual EIA reference 2021 NG and oil prices Average of three years of historical interchange values for New York AC ties, CSC, NNC, HG, and Phase II(b) Highest monthly diurnal values of 2013 or 2014 for the Maritimes All resources are curtailable if LMP <$10/MWh(b) None(b) None Base: $20/ short ton B. Most Favorable to Offshore Wind Double the reference NG and oil prices Same as above FCA #9 resources and existing wind: Retire Pilgrim, Seabrook, and Millstone; replace them with gas units at specific substations proportionally (keeping total system capacity constant while adding offshore wind) None High: $40/ short ton C. Favorable to OSW EIA high oil prices D. Most Unfavorable to OSW Half the reference NG and oil prices Same as above None(c) FCA #9 resources and all renewables in the queue with “active” status(d) as of April 1, 2015: Replace the carbon-heavy capacity with natural gas combined-cycle capacity Low: $10/ short ton E. Unfavorable to OSW EIA low oil prices (a) Scenario names are consistent with the original request from the Massachusetts Clean Energy Center. (b) Cross-Sound Cable (CSC), Norwalk–Northport Cable (NNC), and Highgate (HG). Phase II refers to Hydro-Québec Phase II. LMP refers to locational marginal price. (c) Pilgrim is not retired consistent with FCA #9. A total of 677 MW of base load nuclear generation could serve as a proxy for higher levels of energy efficiency (EE), wind, and imports. (d) Block Island Wind was not modeled because it is a non-FERC jurisdictional project. Cape Wind was not modeled neither.
2015_economic_study_offshore_wind_development_final.docx