Scenario Three - Overview by Key Driver Key Driver Scenario Summary The evolution of electricity demand Combination of high unemployment and decline in incomes means that electricity demand in WECC region remains stagnant over the 20-year period. The evolution of electricity supply Coal-fired plants phased out over the duration of the scenario with natural gas taking its place. A in the WECC region balanced, portfolio approach to energy supply takes hold. Innovation in electricity supply Smart grid technology developed in order to support industry goals of managing costs and technology & distribution systems assuring reliability. The course of regional economic WECC states and provinces suffer from high unemployment and decline in incomes. Most still growth in the WECC region feeling the long-terms effects of the credit crunch and the housing crisis. Increased pockets of poverty. Changes in the regulation of lectric With reductions in the overall electricity demand, regulatory bodies take a hands-off approach to power systems in the WECC region the power industry. Tax breaks and financial incentives for renewables eliminated due to maturation of the sector. Changes in federal regulation Both FERC and EPA develop policies that encourage the industry to transition from coal to affecting electric power industry natural gas and other renewables. Changes in social values related to Political unrest in the Middle East drives desire to reduce exposure to Middle Eastern oil public’s energy issues and find other, more secure, sources of power. Changes in preferences Public pressure on the power industry forces companies to deal with carbon emissions in a society’s for environmental & natural manner. With little capital available, companies must use low-cost efficiencies to reduce resources emissions from coal-fired plants. Shifts in national & global financial Credit at a premium as small and mid-sized enterprises cannot access capital through the markets banks. Highly volatile financial and banking sectors across the globe. Shifts in the availability & prices of By 2031, fossil fuel usage much lower. Increase in the number of electric vehicles means commodity fuels used in the decrease in gas usage. Coal prices decline due to plant retirements. Lowered natural gas prices electricity sector spur increased use.
Scenario Three - Overview by Key Driver Key Driver Scenario Summary The evolution of electricity demand in WECC region Combination of high unemployment and decline in incomes means that electricity demand remains stagnant over the 20-year period. The evolution of electricity supply in the WECC region Coal-fired plants phased out over the duration of the scenario with natural gas taking its place. A balanced, portfolio approach to energy supply takes hold. Innovation in electricity supply technology & distribution systems Smart grid technology developed in order to support industry goals of managing costs and assuring reliability. The course of regional economic growth in the WECC region WECC states and provinces suffer from high unemployment and decline in incomes. Most still feeling the long-terms effects of the credit crunch and the housing crisis. Increased pockets of poverty. Changes in the regulation of lectric power systems in the WECC region With reductions in the overall electricity demand, regulatory bodies take a hands-off approach to the power industry. Tax breaks and financial incentives for renewables eliminated due to maturation of the sector. Changes in federal regulation affecting electric power industry Both FERC and EPA develop policies that encourage the industry to transition from coal to natural gas and other renewables. Changes in social values related to energy issues Political unrest in the Middle East drives public’s desire to reduce exposure to Middle Eastern oil and find other, more secure, sources of power. Changes in society’s preferences for environmental & natural resources Public pressure on the power industry forces companies to deal with carbon emissions in a manner. With little capital available, companies must use low-cost efficiencies to reduce emissions from coal-fired plants. Shifts in national & global financial markets Credit at a premium as small and mid-sized enterprises cannot access capital through the banks. Highly volatile financial and banking sectors across the globe. Shifts in the availability & prices of commodity fuels used in the electricity sector By 2031, fossil fuel usage much lower. Increase in the number of electric vehicles means decrease in gas usage. Coal prices decline due to plant retirements. Lowered natural gas prices spur increased use.
WECC_Scenarios.docx