Fill in the table below: Desired event # of ways # of Total Fraction Decimal % event could possible representation Representation occur outcomes of fraction of probability Roll a 2 with 6 sided 1 6 1/6 0.167 16.7% die Flip a coin with heads 1 2 1/2 0.50 50% up Roll a 2 with a 10 1 10 1/10 0.10 10% sided die Pull a red marble out 2 5 2/5 0.40 40% of a bag with 3 blue and 2 red marbles Pick a king out of a 4 52 4/52 = 0.077 7.7% deck of cards 1/13 Part II Calculating EQ Probabilities – Estimating the probability of an event is a useful way for scientists to assess the likelihood of a certain hazardous event. For example, in your as an “role” emergency manager or city planner, it would be useful to know the probability of an earthquake occurring in a particular location so that appropriate building codes can be developed. To help you understand how one would create such estimates, we will use a physical model (Figure 1) to represent a fault system and determine the probability of various sizes of events occurring in the model. with the model. Play with the model by slowly pulling on First, let’s get oriented the measuring tape attached to the rubber band, which is attached to the block. 1) Which of the following statements best describes what you see occurring as you slowly pull the measuring tape? a) As the measuring tape is pulled, the block moves forward an equal amount. As the measuring tape is pulled, energy is stored in the rubber ▶▶▶▶b) band until suddenly the stored energy is released when the block lurches forward. This model is useful because the behavior you observed is similar to the way we believe faults behave in Earth. The rubber band, model’s wooden block, measuring tape and sandpaper base all represent components of an active fault section. Your pull on the measuring tape and rubber band attached to the block is analogous to slow, continuous plate motions. For example, this might represent the downward pull of a subducting slab of lithospheric plate, which is
Fill in the table below: Desired event # of ways event could occur # of Total possible outcomes Fraction Decimal representation of fraction % Representation of probability Roll a 2 with 6 sided die 1 6 1/6 0.167 16.7% Flip a coin with heads up 1 2 1/2 0.50 50% Roll a 2 with a 10 sided die 1 10 1/10 0.10 10% Pull a red marble out of a bag with 3 blue and 2 red marbles 2 5 2/5 0.40 40% Pick a king out of a deck of cards 4 52 4/52 = 1/13 0.077 7.7% Part II – Calculating EQ Probabilities Estimating the probability of an event is a useful way for scientists to assess the likelihood of a certain hazardous event. For example, in your “role” as an emergency manager or city planner, it would be useful to know the probability of an earthquake occurring in a particular location so that appropriate building codes can be developed. To help you understand how one would create such estimates, we will use a physical model (Figure 1) to represent a fault system and determine the probability of various sizes of events occurring in the model. First, let’s get oriented with the model. Play with the model by slowly pulling on the measuring tape attached to the rubber band, which is attached to the block. 1) Which of the following statements best describes what you see occurring as you slowly pull the measuring tape? a) As the measuring tape is pulled, the block moves forward an equal amount. ▶▶▶▶b) As the measuring tape is pulled, energy is stored in the rubber band until suddenly the stored energy is released when the block lurches forward. This model is useful because the behavior you observed is similar to the way we believe faults behave in Earth. The model’s wooden block, rubber band, measuring tape and sandpaper base all represent components of an active fault section. Your pull on the measuring tape and rubber band attached to the block is analogous to slow, continuous plate motions. For example, this might represent the downward pull of a subducting slab of lithospheric plate, which is
student_worksheet_key_seismic.docx