Investment Risks Rating mitigation applied Likelihood Consequence Rating Event Impact Mitigation Potential significant economic TOMAK depends on This will need to be closely DFAT Possible Moderate High shocks at the macro level and reasonable broader economic monitored and the impacts on the reduced GDP stability if it is to stimulate effectiveness of the program investment and economic assessed. If changes growth in the agriculture sector. compromise the scope for Significant shocks will certainly economic growth Australia must compromise economic consider the ongoing opportunity. effectiveness of TOMAK. Insufficient rural households see TOMAK appreciates that not TOMAK will undertake upfront DFAT Unlikely Moderate Moderate their future in commercial everyone will see commercial and ongoing assessments that agriculture, fail to engage with agriculture as a long term generate a better understanding TOMAK, and seek other option. However analysis of the incentive structures driving opportunities. shows that the majority of rural rural households. households see farming as the Current commercial development primary short term opportunity. pilot projects in vegetables Initially many households may demonstrate that rural engage, but as assets improve, households greatly value Operating environment many households will see their commercial production. future elsewhere. These alternative pathways are to be GoTL social protection payments encouraged. may influence economic Additionally, Timorese incentives in agriculture. households may rely on GoTL assistance rather than seeking to innovatively improve their livelihoods. The Managing Contractor finds it TOMAK implementation is There is little evidence that the Unlikely Low difficult to leverage the delivery slower or more constrained use of a MC is, in itself, a DFAT than envisaged. constraint to establishing robust
Investment Risks Event Impact Mitigation Rating mitigation applied Likelihood Consequence Rating Operating environment Potential significant economic shocks at the macro level and reduced GDP TOMAK depends on reasonable broader economic stability if it is to stimulate investment and economic growth in the agriculture sector. Significant shocks will certainly compromise economic opportunity. This will need to be closely monitored and the impacts on the effectiveness of the program assessed. If changes compromise the scope for economic growth Australia must consider the ongoing effectiveness of TOMAK. DFAT Possible Moderate High Insufficient rural households see their future in commercial agriculture, fail to engage with TOMAK, and seek other opportunities. TOMAK appreciates that not everyone will see commercial agriculture as a long term option. However analysis shows that the majority of rural households see farming as the primary short term opportunity. Initially many households may engage, but as assets improve, many households will see their future elsewhere. These alternative pathways are to be encouraged. Additionally, Timorese households may rely on GoTL assistance rather than seeking to innovatively improve their livelihoods. TOMAK will undertake upfront and ongoing assessments that generate a better understanding of the incentive structures driving rural households. Current commercial development pilot projects in vegetables demonstrate that rural households greatly value commercial production. DFAT Unlikely Moderate Moderate GoTL social protection payments may influence economic incentives in agriculture. The Managing Contractor finds it difficult to leverage the delivery TOMAK implementation is slower or more constrained than envisaged. There is little evidence that the use of a MC is, in itself, a constraint to establishing robust DFAT Unlikely Low
timor-leste-tomak-investment-design.docx