VI: Below is the planning scenario as established at the HAP strategic planning workshop on 18 September 2012. The scenario has since been adjusted to account for the Framework Agreement on Bangsamoro entered on 15 October 2012. Most Likely Scenario Theme Assumption Trigger People Affected Humanitarian Consequence GPH-MILF conflict Steady progress in the Recognition of a peaceful 60,000-80,000 people Populations are displaced due to armed peace talks with the settlement among the parties. clashes initiated by spoiler groups. possibility of an initial Issues of power, wealth and Shelters are damaged or destroyed. agreement on the 10 decision resource sharing are resolved. Livelihoods lost and/or disrupted. points leading to a final peace Creation of a New Political Infrastructures/facilities (roads, bridges, agreement. A period of Entity to replace ARMM. health, agriculture, irrigation) damaged. transition is expected if an Some parties may be agreement is reached. Spoiler dissatisfied with the elements may emerge causing agreement. further displacement. Rido and election-related Relatively stable political 2013 national and municipal 70,000 people (election-related Bombing of schools. violence environment before and during general elections; violence violence) Loss of lives; people injured. the elections. Post-election erupt in election hotspot areas. Rido cause massive multiple displacement or 200,000 people (rido) violence may erupt if results Inter-clan disputes over short-term displacement lasting for about 1 are perceived to be illegitimate. land/political interests lead to month. Incidents of rido will continue. armed engagement. Loss of livelihoods/properties. Security restrictions enforced. Increased risks to humanitarian service providers. Other violence and NPA peace talks do not Persisting criminalities 10,000 people (not in need of NPA situation is more about chronic criminality resume; rule of law (including kidnap-for-ransom); humanitarian aid from the underdevelopment and is not a humanitarian implementation remains weak. NPA continues attacks on MHT) issue; the Government is able to respond to assets of military and the humanitarian needs of the affected companies people. Natural disaster Flooding/landslides similar to Seasonality plus climate 70,000 people Affected returnees, home-based population 2012 magnitude. change. needs humanitarian support.
VI: Below is the planning scenario as established at the HAP strategic planning workshop on 18 September 2012. The scenario has since been adjusted to account for the Framework Agreement on Bangsamoro entered on 15 October 2012. Most Likely Scenario Theme Assumption Trigger People Affected Humanitarian Consequence GPH-MILF conflict Steady progress in the peace talks with the possibility of an initial agreement on the 10 decision points leading to a final peace agreement. A period of transition is expected if an agreement is reached. Spoiler elements may emerge causing further displacement. Recognition of a peaceful settlement among the parties. Issues of power, wealth and resource sharing are resolved. Creation of a New Political Entity to replace ARMM. Some parties may be dissatisfied with the agreement. 60,000-80,000 people Populations are displaced due to armed clashes initiated by spoiler groups. Shelters are damaged or destroyed. Livelihoods lost and/or disrupted. Infrastructures/facilities (roads, bridges, health, agriculture, irrigation) damaged. Rido and election-related violence Relatively stable political environment before and during the elections. Post-election violence may erupt if results are perceived to be illegitimate. Incidents of rido will continue. 2013 national and municipal general elections; violence erupt in election hotspot areas. Inter-clan disputes over land/political interests lead to armed engagement. 70,000 people (election-related violence) 200,000 people (rido) Bombing of schools. Loss of lives; people injured. Rido cause massive multiple displacement or short-term displacement lasting for about 1 month. Loss of livelihoods/properties. Security restrictions enforced. Increased risks to humanitarian service providers. Other violence and criminality NPA peace talks do not resume; rule of law implementation remains weak. Persisting criminalities (including kidnap-for-ransom); NPA continues attacks on assets of military and companies 10,000 people (not in need of humanitarian aid from the MHT) NPA situation is more about chronic underdevelopment and is not a humanitarian issue; the Government is able to respond to the humanitarian needs of the affected people. Natural disaster Flooding/landslides similar to 2012 magnitude. Seasonality plus climate change. 70,000 people Affected returnees, home-based population needs humanitarian support.
2013_Philippines_HAP.docx