Appendix 8 Likelihood and Consequence Descriptors The following tables provide the definitions for the likelihood and consequence ratings on the Risk Matrix table found on page 71 and were used for each assessment of the hazards in Section 7. Rating Likelihood Description Expected to occur, many recorded incidents, strong anecdotal evidence, great opportunity, reason, or means to occur; may occur or be exceeded Almost Certain once every 1 to 5 years. Will probably occur; consistent record of incidents and good anecdotal evidence; considerable opportunity, reason or means to occur; may occur or Likely be exceeded once every 20 years. Might occur; a few recorded incidents in each locality, some anecdotal evidence within the community; some opportunity, reason or means to occur; Possible may occur or be exceeded once every 100 years. Will generally be close to or exceed past records of severity. Is not expected to occur; isolated recorded incidents in this country, anecdotal evidence in other communities; little opportunity, reason or means to Unlikely occur; may occur or be exceeded once every 250 years. Will almost always break previous records of severity. May only occur in exceptional circumstances, some recorded events on a worldwide basis, may only or be exceeded once every 500 years or more. Rare Can approach the theoretical upper limits of severity. Consequence Descriptors Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic Area No. 1: No fatalities. No injuries. No fatalities. Injury to one No fatalities but large Small number of fatalities Significant number of fatalities No treatment required. or more persons requiring number of injuries. Medical and large number of and/or significant number of PEOPLE – non hospital medical treatment required. injuries/large number severe injuries. Significant Fatalities/Injuries. treatment. hospitalised. number hospitalised. Area No. 2: No measurable impact to Some impact but no Some impact with no Some impact with Significant impact and/or the community. lasting effects. effect or small impact effects. permanent damage. SOCIAL IMPACT - with long-term effect. Number of people impacted. Area No. 3 Small number moved Moderate number of Moderate number of Large number of Large number of residential EVACUATION from area no persons residential homes AND/ residential homes AND/OR residential homes homes AND/OR large number – displaced. OR small number of small number of key AND/OR small number of of key businesses/ industry/ businesses. key businesses/ businesses/Industry/government government properties. Industry/government Industry/government properties that provide essential properties. properties. services.
Appendix 8 Likelihood and Consequence Descriptors The following tables provide the definitions for the likelihood and consequence ratings on the Risk Matrix table found on page 71 and were used for each assessment of the hazards in Section 7. Rating Likelihood Description Almost Certain Expected to occur, many recorded incidents, strong anecdotal evidence, great opportunity, reason, or means to occur; may occur or be exceeded once every 1 to 5 years. Likely Will probably occur; consistent record of incidents and good anecdotal evidence; considerable opportunity, reason or means to occur; may occur or be exceeded once every 20 years. Possible Might occur; a few recorded incidents in each locality, some anecdotal evidence within the community; some opportunity, reason or means to occur; may occur or be exceeded once every 100 years. Will generally be close to or exceed past records of severity. Unlikely Is not expected to occur; isolated recorded incidents in this country, anecdotal evidence in other communities; little opportunity, reason or means to occur; may occur or be exceeded once every 250 years. Will almost always break previous records of severity. Rare May only occur in exceptional circumstances, some recorded events on a worldwide basis, may only or be exceeded once every 500 years or more. Can approach the theoretical upper limits of severity. Consequence Descriptors Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic Area No. 1: PEOPLE – Fatalities/Injuries. No fatalities. No injuries. No treatment required. No fatalities. Injury to one or more persons requiring non hospital medical treatment. No fatalities but large number of injuries. Medical treatment required. Small number of fatalities and large number of injuries/large number hospitalised. Significant number of fatalities and/or significant number of severe injuries. Significant number hospitalised. Area No. 2: SOCIAL IMPACT - Number of people impacted. No measurable impact to the community. Some impact but no lasting effects. Some impact with no effect or small impact with long-term effect. Some impact with effects. Significant impact and/or permanent damage. Area No. 3 EVACUATION Small number moved from area – no persons displaced. Moderate number of residential homes AND/ OR small number of businesses/ industry/ government properties. Moderate number of residential homes AND/OR small number of key businesses. Industry/government properties. Large number of residential homes AND/OR small number of key businesses/ Industry/government properties. Large number of residential homes AND/OR large number of key businesses/Industry/government properties that provide essential services.
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