Negotiations Harmonizing Moro rebel Loss of GPH proponents of key successful & groups agendas donor mechanisms L BBL/Enabling Establishment of Expectations of peace dividends I Law Filed in Bangsamoro Trust Fund not met K Congress Continuing TJRC work Likely opposition to passage of E addressing injustice Enabling Law L Continuing CDD projects Inadequate BTC capacity to write I Supporting CSO law and implement H engagement on BBL passage Internal MILF, and MILF-MNLF O dynamics O Extremists/breakaway groups D from MILF Unexpected violence O F BBL a catalyst and model Undermining provisions in Scenario 2: for discussions on federalism CAB/FAB that have long been I BBL/Enabling Federalism offers fought for by the MILF N Law not passed; opportunities for MILF and Disaffection with smaller overtaken by MNLF to rule respective geographical area of rule due to C R Federalism places where they have splitting of Bangsamoro and loss of E influence and control special autonomy A Opens door for Prolonged debates will result in S Constitutional change to increasing frustration at the accommodate ground level (making violent I demand of extremist groups more attractive) N G the Bangsamoro Engaging CSOs on broader V approaches to peace-building I Greater sense of urgency Peace panels might lose ability to O for Supreme Court to render effectively function and/or manage L a decision on what is a conflict E Scenario 3: No Constitutionally acceptable Collapse in trust in GPH N BBL; No autonomous region Delivery of services more C Federalism Opportunity to further difficult E strengthen CSO and other Violent extremist groups emerge conflict management mechanisms ARMM govt assumes a greater role in delivering services Using CSOs as a bulwark Splinter/breakaway groups from Scenario 4: against further deterioration MILF leading to multiple armed Breakdown of in efforts to build support to groups with no central command the Peace peace process Emergence of violent extremist Process ARMM govt assumes a groups greater role in delivering services HIGH
L I K E L I H O O D O F I N C R E A S I N G V I O L E N C E HIGH Negotiations successful & BBL/Enabling Law Filed in Congress Harmonizing Moro rebel groups agendas Establishment of Bangsamoro Trust Fund Continuing TJRC work addressing injustice Continuing CDD projects Supporting CSO engagement on BBL passage Loss of GPH proponents of key donor mechanisms Expectations of peace dividends not met Likely opposition to passage of Enabling Law Inadequate BTC capacity to write law and implement Internal MILF, and MILF-MNLF dynamics Extremists/breakaway groups from MILF Unexpected violence Scenario 2: BBL/Enabling Law not passed; overtaken by Federalism BBL a catalyst and model for discussions on federalism Federalism offers opportunities for MILF and MNLF to rule respective places where they have influence and control Opens door for Constitutional change to accommodate demand of the Bangsamoro Engaging CSOs on broader approaches to peace-building Undermining provisions in CAB/FAB that have long been fought for by the MILF Disaffection with smaller geographical area of rule due to splitting of Bangsamoro and loss of special autonomy Prolonged debates will result in increasing frustration at the ground level (making violent extremist groups more attractive) Scenario 3: No BBL; No Federalism Greater sense of urgency for Supreme Court to render a decision on what is a Constitutionally acceptable autonomous region Opportunity to further strengthen CSO and other conflict management mechanisms ARMM govt assumes a greater role in delivering services Peace panels might lose ability to effectively function and/or manage conflict Collapse in trust in GPH Delivery of services more difficult Violent extremist groups emerge Scenario 4: Breakdown of the Peace Process Using CSOs as a bulwark against further deterioration in efforts to build support to peace process ARMM govt assumes a greater role in delivering services Splinter/breakaway groups from MILF leading to multiple armed groups with no central command Emergence of violent extremist groups
strategic-review-australias-support-for-peace-in-mindanao.docx