Updating Process Prior belief in question does not Prior belief in question affects the affect the process of updating. process of updating. It can affect: content of new information received (confirmation bias), confidence in new information An effect of standing beliefs received (prior attitude effect), and/or other the belief in question is extent of counter-argument than compatible with an accuracy generation (disconfirmation bias), motivation. For example, confidence in For example, confidence in the findings of a scientific the findings of a scientific report determined by prior report determined by whether beliefs about the the findings support or trustworthiness and expertise contradict one’s of the source. conclusion. Outcome If people receive the same Directional reasoning mechanisms information AND interpret it in the (confirmation bias, prior attitude effect, same way: disconfirmation bias) can lead to should NOT or polarization divergence polarization. occur, Disconfirmation bias can result in can occur (e.g., divergence one party remains unmoved backlash. by non-credible evidence). If people learn different things from the information: can (e.g., backlash observer effect), can occur. 7,41 polarization
Updating Process Prior belief in question does not affect the process of updating. An effect of standing beliefs other than the belief in question is compatible with an accuracy motivation. For example, confidence in the findings of a scientific report determined by prior beliefs about the trustworthiness and expertise of the source. Prior belief in question affects the process of updating. It can affect: content of new information received (confirmation bias), confidence in new information received (prior attitude effect), and/or extent of counter-argument generation (disconfirmation bias), For example, confidence in the findings of a scientific report determined by whether the findings support or contradict one’s conclusion. Outcome If people receive the same information AND interpret it in the same way: polarization should NOT occur, divergence can occur (e.g., one party remains unmoved by non-credible evidence). If people learn different things from the information: backlash can (e.g., observer effect), polarization can occur. 7,41 Directional reasoning mechanisms (confirmation bias, prior attitude effect, disconfirmation bias) can lead to divergence or polarization. Disconfirmation bias can result in backlash.
The%20Evidence%20for%20Motivated%20Reasoning%20In%20Climate%20Change%20Preference%20Formation%2011-9-18.docx