Appendix 2. Prevalence for disability in Lewisham (Model developed by Dr. Tony O’Sullivan in 2005, and updated for current/projected figures in 2011. Projections based on 5000 births/year in Lewisham). Prevalence model for Incidence Incidence per Lewisham Projected Projected Total estimated prevalence in disability in Lewisham year (5000 prevalence Lewisham Lewisham per 1000 births/year) prevalence prevalence current population Area of special children need/impairment/disability 5 -15 yr 11 mths 16 - 19y if 5000 55,000 0-16y 0 4 yrs 11 mths – births/year continue (up to 16th birthday) 1595 Learning disability severe 4 20 100 220 60 220 moderate 25 125 375 1375 - 1375 150 Physical disability 3-4 17.5 88 193 cerebral 2.5 12.5 63 99 38 132 muscular dystrophy 0.15 0.75 4 6 not estimated 8-9 695 Autistic spectrum disorder (1.5%) 15 75 225 825 not estimated (80% with significant learning diff) speech and language delay/disorder 450 up to 11y 10 50 150 300 primary not estimated language disorder/significant language conservative estimate hearing loss requiring aids 2 10 50 110 106 severe hearing loss
Appendix 2. Prevalence for disability in Lewisham (Model developed by Dr. Tony O’Sullivan in 2005, and updated for current/projected figures in 2011. Projections based on 5000 births/year in Lewisham). Prevalence model for disability in Lewisham Incidence per 1000 children Incidence per year (5000 births/year) Lewisham prevalence 0 – 4 yrs 11 mths Projected Lewisham prevalence 5 -15 yr 11 mths Projected Lewisham prevalence 16 - 19y if 5000 births/year continue Total estimated prevalence in current population 55,000 0-16y (up to 16th birthday) Area of special need/impairment/disability Learning disability severe moderate 4 25 20 125 100 375 220 1375 60 - 1595 220 1375 Physical disability cerebral muscular dystrophy 3-4 2.5 0.15 17.5 12.5 0.75 88 63 4 193 99 6 38 not estimated 150 132 8-9 Autistic spectrum disorder (1.5%) (80% with significant learning diff) 15 75 225 825 not estimated 695 speech and language delay/disorder language disorder/significant language 10 conservative estimate 50 150 300 primary not estimated 450 up to 11y hearing loss requiring aids severe hearing loss 2 10 50 110 106
Therapies_HCNA221012%20MG.docx