275 265 345 164 268 345 358 3674 NORWAY POLAND 19293 19279 19500 19238 19511 7226 24000 GERMANY 1705 1355 1229 1870 1794 1266 9844 LITHUANIA RUSSIA 1524 1413 1413 2023 1488 1503 78 2023 POLAND SWEDEN 2466 2577 2543 3062 2356 2954 5126 4237 DENMARK 1477 FINLAND 1638 1513 1639 1186 1577 1578 1075 6000 GERMANY 115 162 6 122 132 156 1290 3990 LITHUANIA 5944 6102 5953 6351 5825 5934 2605 8678 NORWAY 3940 3935 3986 4000 3852 3942 1413 4000 POLAND 3159 SWEDEN 40786 40626 42278 41288 41269 27695 130154 Table 8: Model based investment in transmission. 2035-2050, MW. 2030-2050 In the period from 2030 to 2050 the rate on investment in transmission is increased. In most scenarios the total of new capacity is between 40 42,000 – MW. In the CO2 concern scenarios the investment is a factor 3 higher. In the CO2 collapse scenario there less need for new capacity. Only minor capacities are connecting to Estonia. The planned connections to and from Estonia (realised before 2022) seem to be sufficient for a long time as only new lines are built in the oil shale and CO2 collapse scenario. Results District heating – In 2012 the capacity of CHP plants are 802 MWheat. Investment in CHP capacity increases to 1258 MWheat in 2020. As a result the of CHP generated heat in the district heating system increases from 50% in 2012 to 69% in 2030. From 2040 investment in heat pumps starts and large heat pumps supply 1-14% of the heating in district heating systems in the end of the simulation period. Figure 41: Division of CHPs, heat and boilers in district heating. Liberal scenario. Heat storage A heat storage is a simple technology that, if it is used efficiently, can allow for the CHP plants to operate when the electricity price is high even without a
NORWAY 275 265 345 164 268 345 358 3674 POLAND GERMANY 19293 19279 19500 19238 19511 7226 24000 LITHUANIA 1705 1355 1229 1870 1794 1266 9844 RUSSIA POLAND 1524 1413 1413 2023 1488 1503 78 2023 SWEDEN DENMARK 2466 2577 2543 3062 2356 2954 5126 4237 FINLAND 1477 GERMANY 1638 1513 1639 1186 1577 1578 1075 6000 LITHUANIA 115 162 6 122 132 156 1290 3990 NORWAY 5944 6102 5953 6351 5825 5934 2605 8678 POLAND 3940 3935 3986 4000 3852 3942 1413 4000 SWEDEN 3159 40786 40626 42278 41288 41269 27695 130154 Table 8: Model based investment in transmission. 2035-2050, MW. 2030-2050 In the period from 2030 to 2050 the rate on investment in transmission is increased. In most scenarios the total of new capacity is between 40 – 42,000 MW. In the CO2 concern scenarios the investment is a factor 3 higher. In the CO2 collapse scenario there less need for new capacity. Only minor capacities are connecting to Estonia. The planned connections to and from Estonia (realised before 2022) seem to be sufficient for a long time as only new lines are built in the oil shale and CO2 collapse scenario. Results – District heating In 2012 the capacity of CHP plants are 802 MWheat. Investment in CHP capacity increases to 1258 MWheat in 2020. As a result the of CHP generated heat in the district heating system increases from 50% in 2012 to 69% in 2030. From 2040 investment in heat pumps starts and large heat pumps supply 1-14% of the heating in district heating systems in the end of the simulation period. Figure 41: Division of CHPs, heat and boilers in district heating. Liberal scenario. Heat storage A heat storage is a simple technology that, if it is used efficiently, can allow for the CHP plants to operate when the electricity price is high even without a
Scenario_report_final_draft.docx