Appendix A How to solve using WinQSB To solve this problem using WinQSB, it is advisable that a manual tree is created that could reflect all the decision, event, and terminal nodes in the problem. All nodes should be numbered and named for communication purposes and to be entered into WinQSB. Figure 7. Manual tree for WinQSB Input. After creating the manual tree, information can be put into the software in an easy manner. First go into Decision Analysis and choose to open a new program. Then select the option for Decision Tree Analysis and enter the Problem Title as well as the total number of decision, event and terminal nodes. A will then appear that will need to following information: Node Name, Node Type, Immediate Following Node, Node Payoff, and Probability. The figure below shows the description and values that will satisfy this problem. Figure 7. WinQSB values for Decision Tree. To find a solution, select Solve and Analyze and Solve the Problem. The Solution should look like the figure below. The expected value will be $10,000. Figure 8. WinQSB output values for Decision Tree. To view the decision tree, select Results and Show Decision Tree Graph. There are various options where the graph can be adjusted, one such option is to mark the box to Display the expected values of each node or event. This will show in red on the graph below each decision or event node. To visually follow the solution, simply start with the first node expected value and follow the branch that matches the same value. This will show the decisions and choices that will give the best results for that scenario. Figure 9. WinQSB output Decision Tree Diagram. In the case for the figure above, the solution that will provide the optimal expected value will be to buy the gold instead of waiting for congress to first decide to relax the commodities. This decision will have an expected outcome of $10,000.
Appendix A How to solve using WinQSB To solve this problem using WinQSB, it is advisable that a manual tree is created that could reflect all the decision, event, and terminal nodes in the problem. All nodes should be numbered and named for communication purposes and to be entered into WinQSB. Figure 7. Manual tree for WinQSB Input. After creating the manual tree, information can be put into the software in an easy manner. First go into Decision Analysis and choose to open a new program. Then select the option for Decision Tree Analysis and enter the Problem Title as well as the total number of decision, event and terminal nodes. A will then appear that will need to following information: Node Name, Node Type, Immediate Following Node, Node Payoff, and Probability. The figure below shows the description and values that will satisfy this problem. Figure 7. WinQSB values for Decision Tree. To find a solution, select Solve and Analyze and Solve the Problem. The Solution should look like the figure below. The expected value will be $10,000. Figure 8. WinQSB output values for Decision Tree. To view the decision tree, select Results and Show Decision Tree Graph. There are various options where the graph can be adjusted, one such option is to mark the box to Display the expected values of each node or event. This will show in red on the graph below each decision or event node. To visually follow the solution, simply start with the first node expected value and follow the branch that matches the same value. This will show the decisions and choices that will give the best results for that scenario. Figure 9. WinQSB output Decision Tree Diagram. In the case for the figure above, the solution that will provide the optimal expected value will be to buy the gold instead of waiting for congress to first decide to relax the commodities. This decision will have an expected outcome of $10,000.
2012ExtraCredit-DT.docx