Table A4 Johansen test results, untreated pine continued Series Transformation Excluded Deterministic variables Lags Hypothesised number Trace test Max-Eigenvalue statistic observations of cointegrating Test statistic Critical Test statistic Critical equations value value Cointegrating VAR equation equation Total untreated Natural 2008q3, 2010q4 C SD 1 None 40.67 20.26 38.03 15.89 pine, Treated logarithm At most one 2.62 a 9.16 2.62 a 9.16 pine C C, SD 1 None 21.92 15.49 21.41 14.26 At most one 0.50 a 3.84 0.50 a 3.84 C, T C, SD 1 None 38.29 25.87 37.44 19.39 At most one 0.85 a 12.52 0.85 a 12.52 Note: Test regressions were estimated over the period March 2002 to March 2016. All estimates are significant at the 5 per cent level unless otherwise specified. C Constant or intercept. SD Centred seasonal dummy variables. T Trend. a Insignificant at the 5 per cent level.
Table A4 Johansen test results, untreated pine continued Series Transformation Excluded observations Deterministic variables Lags Hypothesised number of cointegrating equations Trace test Max-Eigenvalue statistic Test statistic Critical value Test statistic Critical value Cointegrating equation VAR equation Total untreated pine, Treated pine Natural logarithm 2008q3, 2010q4 C SD 1 None 40.67 20.26 38.03 15.89 At most one 2.62 a 9.16 2.62 a 9.16 C C, SD 1 None 21.92 15.49 21.41 14.26 At most one 0.50 a 3.84 0.50 a 3.84 C, T C, SD 1 None 38.29 25.87 37.44 19.39 At most one 0.85 a 12.52 0.85 a 12.52 Note: Test regressions were estimated over the period March 2002 to March 2016. All estimates are significant at the 5 per cent level unless otherwise specified. C Constant or intercept. SD Centred seasonal dummy variables. T Trend. a Insignificant at the 5 per cent level.
ShortTermForecastWoodProductSales_2016_v.1.0.0.docx