2-48. Let = candidate wins the election W = candidate loses the election L = poll predicts win PW = poll predicts loss PL = 0.50 = 0.50 P(W) P(L) | = 0.80 | = 0.20 P(PW W) P(PL W) | = 0.10 | = 0.90 P(PW L) P(PL L) 2-49. Let = successful restaurant S = unsuccessful restaurant U = model predicts successful restaurant PS = predicts unsuccessful restaurant PU = 0.70 = 0.30 P(S) P(U) | = 0.90 | = 0.10 P(PS S) P(PU S) | = 0.20 | = 0.80 P(PS U) P(PU U) Let = Default on loan; = No default; = Loan rejected; = Loan approved Given: 2-50. D D' R = 0.2 P(D) = 0.8 P(D') | = 0.9 P(R D) | = 0.7 P(R' D') (a) | = 1 0.7 = 0.3 P(R D') – (b) <ART FILE="DM.02.001.eps" W="160.695pt" H="52.459pt" XS="100%" YS="100%"/> 2-51. (a) 5, 10 = 3.33 F0.05, (b) 8.7 = 3.73 F0.05, (c) 3, 5 = 5.41 F0.05, (d) 10. 4 = 5.96 F0.05, 2-52. (a) 15, 6 = 7.56 F0.01,
2-48. Let W = candidate wins the election L = candidate loses the election PW = poll predicts win PL = poll predicts loss P(W) = 0.50 P(L) = 0.50 P(PW | W) = 0.80 P(PL | W) = 0.20 P(PW | L) = 0.10 P(PL | L) = 0.90 2-49. Let S = successful restaurant U = unsuccessful restaurant PS = model predicts successful restaurant PU = predicts unsuccessful restaurant P(S) = 0.70 P(U) = 0.30 P(PS | S) = 0.90 P(PU | S) = 0.10 P(PS | U) = 0.20 P(PU | U) = 0.80 2-50. Let D = Default on loan; D' = No default; = Loan rejected; R = Loan approved Given: P(D) = 0.2 P(D') = 0.8 P(R | D) = 0.9 P(R' | D') = 0.7 (a) P(R | D') = 1 – 0.7 = 0.3 (b) <ART FILE="DM.02.001.eps" W="160.695pt" H="52.459pt" XS="100%" YS="100%"/> 2-51. (a) F0.05, 5, 10 = 3.33 (b) F0.05, 8.7 = 3.73 (c) F0.05, 3, 5 = 5.41 (d) F0.05, 10. 4 = 5.96 2-52. (a) F0.01, 15, 6 = 7.56
Solution-Manual-for-Quantitative-Analysis-for-Management-11E-11th-Edition.docx