Stocktake plausible supply contribution estimate Stocktake analysis shows that a plausible estimate of supply measure outcomes is approximately 508 GL, taking into account confidence in both a project’s delivery and the likelihood of the project to achieve the upper bound of the likely supply contribution volume (see Table 7). Volumes will also be dependent upon interactions between projects as they are added into the modelling framework. Table 7 Estimate of plausible supply contribution outcomes within required timeframes Project categories Low Nominated Potential Nominated discount Plausible estimate discount % and increase % and discounted outcome for SDLSC* discounted low from low increase from low SDLSC estimate SDLSC estimate estimate SDLSC SDLSC Highest certainty– modelled SDL volumes 246GL 0% 30GL 10% Projects in Pack’ ‘10 TLM environmental (6 projects) Hume Dam airspace Barmah-Millewa operating change 246GL 27GL 273GL South East flows Flexible rates of fall below Hume High certainty - modelled SDL volumes 100GL 10% 75GL 50% unknown Riverine recovery Nimmie Modification of on the Murray 90GL 38GL Snowy Water Licence (RMIF) Vic nine works and measures Moderate certainty - issues more problematic or 80GL 40% 55GL 80% modelled outcomes unknown Murrumbidgee CARM Murrumbidgee and Murray National Parks Yanco Creek offtake -Murrumbidgee River 48GL 11GL 59GL Menindee Lakes Murrumbidgee Flow Enhancement 30GL 40% 70GL 80% Constraint project contribution from River Murray 18GL 14GL 32GL Low certainty problematic issues lower – – 35GL 90% 75GL 90% chance of resolving Improved Regulation of the Murray 4GL 8GL 12GL Murrumbidgee effluent creeks 20GL 20GL 90% 90% Constraint project contribution from Murrumbidgee and Goulburn 2GL 2GL 4GL 511GL 325GL 100GL 508GL Total assessed supply contribution range SDL supply contribution –
Stocktake plausible supply contribution estimate Stocktake analysis shows that a plausible estimate of supply measure outcomes is approximately 508 GL, taking into account confidence in both a project’s delivery and the likelihood of the project to achieve the upper bound of the likely supply contribution volume (see Table 7). Volumes will also be dependent upon interactions between projects as they are added into the modelling framework. Table 7 Estimate of plausible supply contribution outcomes within required timeframes Project categories Low estimate SDLSC* Nominated discount % and discounted low estimate SDLSC Potential increase from low estimate SDLSC Nominated discount % and discounted increase from low estimate SDLSC Plausible outcome for SDLSC Highest certainty– modelled SDL volumes Projects in ‘10 Pack’ TLM environmental (6 projects) Hume Dam airspace Barmah-Millewa operating change South East flows Flexible rates of fall below Hume 246GL 0% 30GL 10% 246GL 27GL 273GL High certainty - modelled SDL volumes unknown Riverine recovery Nimmie Modification of on the Murray Snowy Water Licence (RMIF) Vic nine works and measures 100GL 10% 75GL 50% 90GL 38GL Moderate certainty - issues more problematic or modelled outcomes unknown Murrumbidgee CARM Murrumbidgee and Murray National Parks Yanco Creek offtake -Murrumbidgee River Menindee Lakes Murrumbidgee Flow Enhancement 80GL 40% 55GL 80% 48GL 11GL 59GL Constraint project contribution from River Murray 30GL 40% 70GL 80% 18GL 14GL 32GL Low certainty – problematic issues – lower chance of resolving Improved Regulation of the Murray Murrumbidgee effluent creeks Constraint project contribution from Murrumbidgee and Goulburn 35GL 90% 75GL 90% 4GL 8GL 12GL 20GL 90% 20GL 90% 2GL 2GL 4GL Total assessed supply contribution range 511GL 325GL 100GL 508GL – SDL supply contribution
SDL-Adjustment-Stocktake-Report.docx