Are the introduction pathways likely to change due to climate change? (If yes, Reference provide a new risk and uncertainty score) (Personal The introduction pathways are unlikely to change as a result of climatic Communication J. change as the species enters the EPPO region as a result of the van Valkenburg, horticultural trade. The overall rating for introduction will not change. 2016). Is the risk of establishment likely to change due to climate change? (If yes, Reference provide a new risk and uncertainty score) The risk of establishment will increase with increasing temperature in some countries, in which frost events currently hinder establishment of S. With projected climate change it is predicted (using the scenario molesta. RCP 8.5: 2070) that the species will be capable of establishing throughout See appendix 1 the Atlantic zone, Western Continental Europe (as far east as the western borders of Poland and Romania), and is likely to increase its potential distribution around the Black Sea (see Appendix 1). The overall rating given in section 9 will not change. Is the risk of spread likely to change due to climate change? (If yes, provide a Reference new risk and uncertainty score) The risk of spread into countries from interconnecting water bodies, in which frost events currently hinder the establishment of will S. molesta increase with increasing temperature. See appendix 1 Increased flood events resulting from climate change could facilitate the spread of the species into new regions (see Appendix 1). The risk of spread will remain as moderate but the level of uncertainty could be reduced from moderate to low. Will change due to climate change? impacts (If yes, provide a new risk and Reference uncertainty score) With increasing temperature the impacts of will be more Salvinia molesta profound than under the current climatic conditions. As the species spreads, impacts will manifest across a larger part of the PRA area. More See appendix 1 rapid growth and biomass accumulation will result in higher impacts to native species. The ratings given in section 12 will not change. 16. Overall assessment of risk The overall likelihood of entering into the EPPO region is high. The plant is Salvinia molesta imported into the EPPO region and is sold for aquarium and garden ponds. In addition, it is grown and traded within the EPPO region. In view of the risk of entry, establishment and spread, it is surprising that despite the long history of trade as an ornamental and the climatic match with the Mediterranean, it is not yet widely established.
Are the introduction pathways likely to change due to climate change? (If yes, provide a new risk and uncertainty score) Reference The introduction pathways are unlikely to change as a result of climatic change as the species enters the EPPO region as a result of the horticultural trade. The overall rating for introduction will not change. (Personal Communication J. van Valkenburg, 2016). Is the risk of establishment likely to change due to climate change? (If yes, provide a new risk and uncertainty score) Reference The risk of establishment will increase with increasing temperature in some countries, in which frost events currently hinder establishment of S. molesta. With projected climate change it is predicted (using the scenario RCP 8.5: 2070) that the species will be capable of establishing throughout the Atlantic zone, Western Continental Europe (as far east as the western borders of Poland and Romania), and is likely to increase its potential distribution around the Black Sea (see Appendix 1). The overall rating given in section 9 will not change. See appendix 1 Is the risk of spread likely to change due to climate change? (If yes, provide a new risk and uncertainty score) Reference The risk of spread into countries from interconnecting water bodies, in which frost events currently hinder the establishment of S. molesta will increase with increasing temperature. Increased flood events resulting from climate change could facilitate the spread of the species into new regions (see Appendix 1). The risk of spread will remain as moderate but the level of uncertainty could be reduced from moderate to low. See appendix 1 Will impacts change due to climate change? (If yes, provide a new risk and uncertainty score) Reference With increasing temperature the impacts of Salvinia molesta will be more profound than under the current climatic conditions. As the species spreads, impacts will manifest across a larger part of the PRA area. More rapid growth and biomass accumulation will result in higher impacts to native species. The ratings given in section 12 will not change. See appendix 1 16. Overall assessment of risk The overall likelihood of Salvinia molesta entering into the EPPO region is high. The plant is imported into the EPPO region and is sold for aquarium and garden ponds. In addition, it is grown and traded within the EPPO region. In view of the risk of entry, establishment and spread, it is surprising that despite the long history of trade as an ornamental and the climatic match with the Mediterranean, it is not yet widely established.
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