precursor to the establishment of a formal investigation. It is during the process of a preliminary investigation that the OTP determines if the Court has jurisdiction over a given situation. While the choice to focus on the decision to open a formal investigation makes much more sense than focusing on preliminary investigations, it presents formidable challenges in terms of research design. Among the most vexing is the size of the universe of cases—in this case 19 situations under review by the Court. Researchers who seek to explain general patterns of ICC behavior face a Goldilock’s problem—the universe of cases appears too small to rely solely on multivariate regression analysis, too large for an intensive qualitative analysis encompassing all cases. Moreover, qualitative analysis likely would rely largely on the statements of key individuals involved in the decision-making process. It is extremely unlikely that anyone in the OTP would acknowledge political considerations influencing their decisions. I attempt to bridge this gap by carefully employing elements of both. Two key independent variables figure prominently: gravity and P3 strategic interests. Because neither is concrete, I employ substantial qualitative analysis to operationalize each. To address the question of what factors shape the decision to begin a formal investigation (or not), I begin with a qualitative analysis of the relationship between gravity and outcomes regarding formal investigation, as well as the relationship between strategic interests and outcomes. Basic probability analysis is highly suggestive, but doesn’t allow for possible interaction with other potentially significant variables. Thus, I supplement the qualitative data with probit regression analysis. To address the second question—what factors shape the speed that the Court moves from preliminary to formal investigation—I use a similar mixed-methods approach. Survival analysis is supplemented with a qualitative examination of outcomes when different modes of referral are employed. For the quantitative analysis, I utilize an original dataset that includes both constant and time-varying
precursor to the establishment of a formal investigation. It is during the process of a preliminary investigation that the OTP determines if the Court has jurisdiction over a given situation. While the choice to focus on the decision to open a formal investigation makes much more sense than focusing on preliminary investigations, it presents formidable challenges in terms of research design. Among the most vexing is the size of the universe of cases—in this case 19 situations under review by the Court. Researchers who seek to explain general patterns of ICC behavior face a Goldilock’s problem—the universe of cases appears too small to rely solely on multivariate regression analysis, too large for an intensive qualitative analysis encompassing all cases. Moreover, qualitative analysis likely would rely largely on the statements of key individuals involved in the decision-making process. It is extremely unlikely that anyone in the OTP would acknowledge political considerations influencing their decisions. I attempt to bridge this gap by carefully employing elements of both. Two key independent variables figure prominently: gravity and P3 strategic interests. Because neither is concrete, I employ substantial qualitative analysis to operationalize each. To address the question of what factors shape the decision to begin a formal investigation (or not), I begin with a qualitative analysis of the relationship between gravity and outcomes regarding formal investigation, as well as the relationship between strategic interests and outcomes. Basic probability analysis is highly suggestive, but doesn’t allow for possible interaction with other potentially significant variables. Thus, I supplement the qualitative data with probit regression analysis. To address the second question—what factors shape the speed that the Court moves from preliminary to formal investigation—I use a similar mixed-methods approach. Survival analysis is supplemented with a qualitative examination of outcomes when different modes of referral are employed. For the quantitative analysis, I utilize an original dataset that includes both constant and time-varying
Rudolph%20WPSA%20Paper%202016.docx