Ecosystems Terrestrial and Aquatic – Water Supply Human Health The responses for implementation plans now lie within each sector involved, and with both Provincial and National Government to strengthen mechanisms to make Limpopo more Identifying Scenarios Three medium to long term scenarios (probably 10-25 years) have been developed in relation to the effect of climate change on land cover transformation: Table 6: Scenarios for intervention of land transformation strategies SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2 SCENARIO 3 Partial Government No Government Strong & effective support Aspect support Government support (partial budget (no budget change) (full budget change) change) Full planning and Ad hoc and reactive to Partial planning and Planning and control control Central Govt. regulation control Environmental More regular but ad hoc Ad hoc and reactive Regular and effective monitoring and problem reactive Little change to natural Valuable Grasslands will land cover (if the continue to disappear Grassland complex and important by 32000ha/yr. Extent of natural land transformation could be socio-cultural livestock Bush encroachment will slowed down. holding system of the reduce grazing potential small farmer could be by 40000ha+/yr. overcome. Commercial cropping is Commercial cropping is Commercial cropping is unlikely to change unlikely to change unlikely to change significantly. significantly. significantly. There is likely to be Increased small farmer Requires an intensive Increased small farmer pressure (maize) for (inter-Departmental) Extent of agricultural pressure (maize) for food security purposes. programme to expand areas food security purposes. Suitable land Small farmers as an Suitable land availability (and water) entrepreneurial option availability (and water) would be a restraint. (including rain water would be a restraint & harvesting, land access, more marginal land etc.). would be used. Severe lack of grazing Severe lack of grazing Requires courage and Grazing for livestock on for livestock on creativity (and
Ecosystems – Terrestrial and Aquatic Water Supply Human Health The responses for implementation plans now lie within each sector involved, and with both Provincial and National Government to strengthen mechanisms to make Limpopo more Identifying Scenarios Three medium to long term scenarios (probably 10-25 years) have been developed in relation to the effect of climate change on land cover transformation: Table 6: Scenarios for intervention of land transformation strategies SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2 SCENARIO 3 Aspect No Government support (no budget change) Partial Government support (partial budget change) Strong & effective Government support (full budget change) Planning and control Ad hoc and reactive to Central Govt. regulation Partial planning and control Full planning and control Environmental monitoring Ad hoc and reactive More regular but ad hoc and problem reactive Regular and effective Extent of natural land Valuable Grasslands will continue to disappear by 32000ha/yr. Bush encroachment will reduce grazing potential by 40000ha+/yr. Grassland transformation could be slowed down. Little change to natural land cover (if the complex and important socio-cultural livestock holding system of the small farmer could be overcome. Extent of agricultural areas Commercial cropping is unlikely to change significantly. There is likely to be Increased small farmer pressure (maize) for food security purposes. Suitable land availability (and water) would be a restraint & more marginal land would be used. Commercial cropping is unlikely to change significantly. Increased small farmer pressure (maize) for food security purposes. Suitable land availability (and water) would be a restraint. Commercial cropping is unlikely to change significantly. Requires an intensive (inter-Departmental) programme to expand Small farmers as an entrepreneurial option (including rain water harvesting, land access, etc.). Grazing Severe lack of grazing for livestock on Severe lack of grazing for livestock on Requires courage and creativity (and
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