The use of the higher range of elasticities results in much greater estimates of ridership losses: 77.5 million unlinked trips compared to 51.4 million using the lower range of elasticities; using the medium range of elasticities results in a loss of 64.2 million unlinked trips. As a result, the projected revenue gain from the fare increase estimated using the higher range of elasticities is approximately $22.5 million less than that estimated using the medium range of elasticities ($64.3 million versus $86.8 million) and $42.9 million less than that estimated using the lower range of elasticities. TABLE 4-5 Scenario 2: Spreadsheet Model Ranges of Estimates of Annual Ridership and Fare Revenue Impacts Using Low and High Ranges of Elasticities Range of Fare Revenue Increases Range of Ridership Losses Modal $ Range # # Range $ (millions) % % Category (millions) (millions) (millions) Bus $5.9 6.2 29.3─35.6 26.2%─31.8% Heavy $15.9 11.7 $37.3─$53.2 24.8%─35.4% 9.5─21.2 6.2%─13.8% Rail Light Rail $6.5 5.9 $14.5─$21.1 23.5%─34.0% 4.8─10.7 6.2%─13.8% Commuter $11.8 1.8 $18.5─$30.3 13.3%─21.7% 5.5─7.3 16.9%─22.3% Rail Ferry $0.0 0.0% $0.0 1.3 100.0% 0.0 THE RIDE $0.5 0.1 $2.0─$2.5 52.6%─65.3% 0.1─0.2 5.1%─10.1% Parking $2.3 0.3 $0.9─$3.3 2.5%─8.8% 0.8─1.1 11.3%─16.1% Total $42.9 26.1 $64.3─$107.3 13.5%─22.5% 51.4─77.5 13.3%─20.0% System
The use of the higher range of elasticities results in much greater estimates of ridership losses: 77.5 million unlinked trips compared to 51.4 million using the lower range of elasticities; using the medium range of elasticities results in a loss of 64.2 million unlinked trips. As a result, the projected revenue gain from the fare increase estimated using the higher range of elasticities is approximately $22.5 million less than that estimated using the medium range of elasticities ($64.3 million versus $86.8 million) and $42.9 million less than that estimated using the lower range of elasticities. TABLE 4-5 Scenario 2: Spreadsheet Model Ranges of Estimates of Annual Ridership and Fare Revenue Impacts Using Low and High Ranges of Elasticities Range of Fare Revenue Increases Range of Ridership Losses Modal Category $ (millions) % $ Range (millions) # (millions) % # Range (millions) Bus $5.9 29.3─35.6 26.2%─31.8% 6.2 Heavy Rail $37.3─$53.2 24.8%─35.4% $15.9 9.5─21.2 6.2%─13.8% 11.7 Light Rail $14.5─$21.1 23.5%─34.0% $6.5 4.8─10.7 6.2%─13.8% 5.9 Commuter Rail $18.5─$30.3 13.3%─21.7% $11.8 5.5─7.3 16.9%─22.3% 1.8 Ferry $0.0 0.0% $0.0 1.3 100.0% 0.0 THE RIDE $2.0─$2.5 52.6%─65.3% $0.5 0.1─0.2 5.1%─10.1% 0.1 Parking $0.9─$3.3 2.5%─8.8% $2.3 0.8─1.1 11.3%─16.1% 0.3 Total System $64.3─$107.3 13.5%─22.5% $42.9 51.4─77.5 13.3%─20.0% 26.1
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