Zone 2 (KZN) Near term (2015 2035) Mid term (2040 2060) Long term (2080 2100) – – – Temperature 1 2°C average annual Average annual 3 5°C average annual – – increase in temperature increases of between 1 increase in temperature under RCP8.5, and 3 °C under RCP8.5 under RCP8.5, exceeding historical substantially exceeding Under RCP4.5, within climate variability. historical variability. the range of historical Under RCP4.5, within climate variability. 1 to 3 °C under RCP4.5 the range of historical climate variability. Rainfall Increased drying under Increased drying under Increased drying under RCP 4.5 scenarios RCP 4.5 scenarios RCP 4.5 scenarios strengthening over time, strengthening over time, strengthening over time, but within the range of but within the range of but within the range of current climate current climate historical climate variability. No significant variability. No significant variability. However drying under RCP 8.5 drying under RCP 8.5 drying under RCP 8.5 significantly exceeds historical variability Zone 3 (North West) Near term (2015 2035) Mid term (2040 2060) Long term (2080 2100) – – – Temperature 1 2.5°C average Average annual 3 6.5°C average – – annual increase in increases of between 1 annual increase in temperature under and 3 °C under RCP8.5 temperature RCP8.5, exceeding RCP8.5, substantially RCP4.5, within the historical climate exceeding historical range of historical variability. variability. climate variability. Under RCP4.5, within Below4°C increase the range of historical RCP4.5 climate variability. Rainfall Slight drying RCP Slight drying under RCP Slight drying under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, but within the range of but within the range of but within the range of current climate current climate current climate variability. variability. variability. Zone 4 (Northern Cape) Near term (2015 2035) Mid term (2040 2060) Long term (2080 2100) – – –
Zone 2 (KZN) Near term (2015 – 2035) Mid term (2040 – 2060) Long term (2080 – 2100) Temperature 1 – 2°C average annual increase in temperature under RCP8.5, exceeding historical climate variability. Under RCP4.5, within the range of historical climate variability. Average annual increases of between 1 and 3 °C under RCP8.5 Under RCP4.5, within the range of historical climate variability. 3 – 5°C average annual increase in temperature under RCP8.5, substantially exceeding historical variability. 1 to 3 °C under RCP4.5 Rainfall Increased drying under RCP 4.5 scenarios strengthening over time, but within the range of current climate variability. No significant drying under RCP 8.5 Increased drying under RCP 4.5 scenarios strengthening over time, but within the range of current climate variability. No significant drying under RCP 8.5 Increased drying under RCP 4.5 scenarios strengthening over time, but within the range of historical climate variability. However drying under RCP 8.5 significantly exceeds historical variability Zone 3 (North West) Near term (2015 – 2035) Mid term (2040 – 2060) Long term (2080 – 2100) Temperature 1 – 2.5°C average annual increase in temperature under RCP8.5, exceeding historical climate variability. Under RCP4.5, within the range of historical climate variability. Average annual increases of between 1 and 3 °C under RCP8.5 RCP4.5, within the range of historical climate variability. 3 – 6.5°C average annual increase in temperature RCP8.5, substantially exceeding historical variability. Below4°C increase RCP4.5 Rainfall Slight drying RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, but within the range of current climate variability. Slight drying under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, but within the range of current climate variability. Slight drying under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, but within the range of current climate variability. Zone 4 (Northern Cape) Near term (2015 – 2035) Mid term (2040 – 2060) Long term (2080 – 2100)
risk_and_vulnerability_260803part1.docx