The impact of these building shell improvements on peak demand were also modelled but indicated these might result in an impact of only 1.8% on winter peak by 2030, and due to other factors the impact probably would be even less. RBS Model Accuracy and Comparison to Top-down Data The results of the RBS modelling were compared to other sources of estimates of residential energy use, including: Office of the Chief Economist (OCE) Energy Supply Association of Australia (ESAA) Various electricity and gas distributors. The OCE estimates are based on aggregated data from market operators for Australia’s electricity networks, who provide estimates and projections of residential consumption. In comparison, the ESAA residential energy measurements were closely aligned with distributor data, which is based on actual metered consumption data. This meant the ESAA measurements were more appropriate for assessing how the RBS estimates compared to actual residential consumption, and the figure below shows the comparison for national electricity consumption. The results show that for all the years compared there was an acceptable difference of less than 5% in the electricity estimates, and for most years a difference of 2% or less was found. In addition, the ESAA figures for recent years support the RBS’s identification of a downward trend in energy consumption. Comparisons of electricity consumption estimates were also done at the State level and, not surprisingly given the poorer appliance and use data available for the States, the results showed a lower level of consistency between the RBS results and the ESAA estimates. However, the maximum variation between the estimates was still under 10%, except for some outlier results for South Australia and Northern Territory, and the variation was under 5% for most years and States. An effective comparison between the RBS national gas consumption estimates and OCE or ESAA estimates was not possible as the OCE or ESAA estimates both do not appear to be on, or to be consistent with, State gas distributor consumption data. Consequently comparisons with State distributor estimates of gas consumption were undertaken and revealed that RBS results were within a maximum of 10% of the distributors’ estimates. This is a satisfactory result given gas consumption is so strongly influenced by annual weather variations. The comparison for Victoria, the largest natural gas consumer, is shown below, which also shows the distributors projecting declining gas consumption as does the RBS results.
The impact of these building shell improvements on peak demand were also modelled but indicated these might result in an impact of only 1.8% on winter peak by 2030, and due to other factors the impact probably would be even less. RBS Model Accuracy and Comparison to Top-down Data The results of the RBS modelling were compared to other sources of estimates of residential energy use, including: Office of the Chief Economist (OCE) Energy Supply Association of Australia (ESAA) Various electricity and gas distributors. The OCE estimates are based on aggregated data from market operators for Australia’s electricity networks, who provide estimates and projections of residential consumption. In comparison, the ESAA residential energy measurements were closely aligned with distributor data, which is based on actual metered consumption data. This meant the ESAA measurements were more appropriate for assessing how the RBS estimates compared to actual residential consumption, and the figure below shows the comparison for national electricity consumption. The results show that for all the years compared there was an acceptable difference of less than 5% in the electricity estimates, and for most years a difference of 2% or less was found. In addition, the ESAA figures for recent years support the RBS’s identification of a downward trend in energy consumption. Comparisons of electricity consumption estimates were also done at the State level and, not surprisingly given the poorer appliance and use data available for the States, the results showed a lower level of consistency between the RBS results and the ESAA estimates. However, the maximum variation between the estimates was still under 10%, except for some outlier results for South Australia and Northern Territory, and the variation was under 5% for most years and States. An effective comparison between the RBS national gas consumption estimates and OCE or ESAA estimates was not possible as the OCE or ESAA estimates both do not appear to be on, or to be consistent with, State gas distributor consumption data. Consequently comparisons with State distributor estimates of gas consumption were undertaken and revealed that RBS results were within a maximum of 10% of the distributors’ estimates. This is a satisfactory result given gas consumption is so strongly influenced by annual weather variations. The comparison for Victoria, the largest natural gas consumer, is shown below, which also shows the distributors projecting declining gas consumption as does the RBS results.
Report_Residential_Baseline_Study_for_Australia_2000_-_2030_0.docx