From all the existing techniques, we chose the This cohort survival technique. technique analyses the during their life through the educative system. student’s populations A cohort group is followed until disappearing. This is the The study of the flow of students. main aspect of this function is the calculus of a to appreciate which the drop out index tendency of the cohorts is or will be through the years. The formula to use is: P(t) = cP(x) where: c is the average proportion calculated via: c = / tmax; P(x) is the initial population and P(t) the projection. ΣPz/Pz-1 Let us start with the difficult part, the calculus of The next table shows the “c”. progression, we estimate for the resulting population according to a drop out rate based on the mentioned factors, population dynamics, migration and birth rate. are the goals 1s data established for the planning team for four years, 150, 300, 400, 400. result from the 2s data division of the previous data and the dropout rate given below, i.e. 120 = 150/0.80 or 342.9 = 342/0.95 and so on. For the procedure is identical. 3s data, Then is an average 0.875, 0.945 and 0.9575 are so, it becomes the desirable “c” dropout rate for future projections. Then in the we reenter the projection section established goals with the these are the results where P(t) is the product of expected rates, by P(x), the given goal. “c” Figure 15. General calculus of the enrollment projection. Data t 1 2 3 4 1s 150 300 400 400 2s 120 255 360 380 3s 108 242.25 342 372.4 E 102.6 230.1375 324.9 364.952 Drop out rate 1-2s 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 0.875 2-3s 0.90 0.95 0.95 0.98 0.945 3-e 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.98 0.9575 Projection 1 2 3 P(x) 150 300 400 c 0.875 0.945 0.9575
From all the existing techniques, we chose the cohort survival technique. This technique analyses the student’s populations during their life through the educative system. A cohort group is followed until disappearing. This is the study of the flow of students. The main aspect of this function is the calculus of a drop out index to appreciate which the tendency of the cohorts is or will be through the years. The formula to use is: P(t) = cP(x) where: c is the average proportion calculated via: c = ΣPz/Pz-1 / tmax; P(x) is the initial population and P(t) the projection. Let us start with the difficult part, the calculus of “c”. The next table shows the progression, we estimate for the resulting population according to a drop out rate based on the mentioned factors, population dynamics, migration and birth rate. 1s data are the goals established for the planning team for four years, 150, 300, 400, 400. 2s data result from the division of the previous data and the dropout rate given below, i.e. 120 = 150/0.80 or 342.9 = 342/0.95 and so on. For 3s data, the procedure is identical. Then “c” is an average 0.875, 0.945 and 0.9575 are so, it becomes the desirable dropout rate for future projections. Then in the projection section we reenter the established goals with the expected rates, these are the results where P(t) is the product of “c” by P(x), the given goal. Figure 15. General calculus of the enrollment projection. Data t 1 2 3 4 1s 150 300 400 400 2s 120 255 360 380 3s 108 242.25 342 372.4 E 102.6 230.1375 324.9 364.952 Drop out rate 1-2s 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 0.875 2-3s 0.90 0.95 0.95 0.98 0.945 3-e 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.98 0.9575 Projection 1 2 3 P(x) 150 300 400 c 0.875 0.945 0.9575
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