Defendants in erroneous convictions will be significantly more likely to have received a weaker defense than those in near misses. (iii) Hypotheses Concerning Sociological Factors Believed to Influence Erroneous Conviction These seven sources of error are sometimes juxtaposed against more “traditional” sociological sources of error, such as race, class, or demographic effects (Bedau & Radelet, 1987; Free & Ruesink, 2012). The idea here is that minorities and people from lower status or class background are at greater risk of poor treatment in the criminal justice system, which may increase the chance of an erroneous conviction. The heightened risk may operate directly—where, for example, racial minorities are arrested at a higher rate than whites in America (Tonry, 1995)—or the danger may be indirect, such as prior findings that African Americans who murder white victims are disproportionately sentenced to death (Baldus, Woodworth, & Pulaski, 1990). In addition, given that criminal justice practices operate within a larger political system and culture, we anticipate regional differences in the prevalence and distribution of erroneous convictions. Accordingly, we hypothesize that: Racial minorities are significantly more likely to be present in the erroneous convictions than in the near misses; African Americans charged with crimes against white victims are significantly more likely to be present in the erroneous convictions than in the near misses; Cross-racial misidentification is significantly more likely to be present in erroneous convictions than in near misses; Class effects are significantly more likely to be present in the erroneous convictions than in the near misses (i.e., individuals from low socio-economic status are significantly more likely to be present in the erroneous convictions than in the near misses);
Defendants in erroneous convictions will be significantly more likely to have received a weaker defense than those in near misses. (iii) Hypotheses Concerning Sociological Factors Believed to Influence Erroneous Conviction These seven “traditional” sources of error are sometimes juxtaposed against more sociological sources of error, such as race, class, or demographic effects (Bedau & Radelet, 1987; Free & Ruesink, 2012). The idea here is that minorities and people from lower status or class background are at greater risk of poor treatment in the criminal justice system, which may increase the chance of an erroneous conviction. The heightened risk may operate directly—where, for example, racial minorities are arrested at a higher rate than whites in America (Tonry, 1995)—or the danger may be indirect, such as prior findings that African Americans who murder white victims are disproportionately sentenced to death (Baldus, Woodworth, & Pulaski, 1990). In addition, given that criminal justice practices operate within a larger political system and culture, we anticipate regional differences in the prevalence and distribution of erroneous convictions. Accordingly, we hypothesize that: Racial minorities are significantly more likely to be present in the erroneous convictions than in the near misses; African Americans charged with crimes against white victims are significantly more likely to be present in the erroneous convictions than in the near misses; Cross-racial misidentification is significantly more likely to be present in erroneous convictions than in near misses; Class effects are significantly more likely to be present in the erroneous convictions than in the near misses (i.e., individuals from low socio-economic status are significantly more likely to be present in the erroneous convictions than in the near misses);
Predicting%20Erroneous%20Convictions%20Final%20Report_Edited%20EMBARGOED.docx