Business as To analyze the impacts of Land use and land-use Mathematical Usual (BAU) the current policies (PSB) change trend for the period model and; 2009 2014 is maintained; (quantitative) – GIS TerrSet – To create a baseline for PSB continues operating and comparison with the other conserving an area of 24,897 scenarios. ha of native forest and páramo; Strengthened To analyze the impacts of Land use and land-use Expert criterion Socio Bosque the current policies change trend for the period (quantitative) (FSB) prioritizing areas of 2009 2014 is maintained; – hydrological importance through the PSB. PSB incorporates an extra 6.250 ha in areas of hydrological importance for a total of 31.147 ha under PSB incentives. National To analyze the impacts of Land use and land-use Expert criterion Incentives Plan the PNI implementation and change trend for the period (qualitative) (PNI) the types of incentives 2009 2014 is maintained; – which composes it, restoration, conservation PSB incorporates an extra and sustainable use. 8.624 ha in areas of hydrological importance for a total of 33.521 ha under PSB incentives; Forest restoration of 18.700 ha; Substitution of 27.855 ha of pastures into silvopastoral systems; All incentives under the PNI scenario are considered to occur simultaneously. Degradation To analyze the impacts of There are no public policies Mathematical (DEG) not having any type of for the conservation of forests model policy for the conservation and páramos, restoration or (quantitative) of native vegetation, sustainable production; InVEST restoration or sustainable production; Deforestation increases; Give an indication of PSB disappears; benefits generated by the current incentives No PNI implemented. implemented under the PSB.
Business as Usual (BAU) To analyze the impacts of the current policies (PSB) and; To create a baseline for comparison with the other scenarios. Land use and land-use change trend for the period 2009 – 2014 is maintained; PSB continues operating and conserving an area of 24,897 ha of native forest and páramo; Mathematical model (quantitative) GIS – TerrSet Strengthened Socio Bosque (FSB) To analyze the impacts of the current policies prioritizing areas of hydrological importance through the PSB. Land use and land-use change trend for the period 2009 – 2014 is maintained; PSB incorporates an extra 6.250 ha in areas of hydrological importance for a total of 31.147 ha under PSB incentives. Expert criterion (quantitative) National Incentives Plan (PNI) To analyze the impacts of the PNI implementation and the types of incentives which composes it, restoration, conservation and sustainable use. Land use and land-use change trend for the period 2009 – 2014 is maintained; PSB incorporates an extra 8.624 ha in areas of hydrological importance for a total of 33.521 ha under PSB incentives; Forest restoration of 18.700 ha; Substitution of 27.855 ha of pastures into silvopastoral systems; All incentives under the PNI scenario are considered to occur simultaneously. Expert criterion (qualitative) Degradation (DEG) To analyze the impacts of not having any type of policy for the conservation of native vegetation, restoration or sustainable production; Give an indication of benefits generated by the current incentives implemented under the PSB. There are no public policies for the conservation of forests and páramos, restoration or sustainable production; Deforestation increases; PSB disappears; No PNI implemented. Mathematical model (quantitative) InVEST
Policy-Brief-MS-24-april-V1.docx