PERT For each activity in PERT we must specify an time, a most time and a optimistic probable time estimate. We then use three time estimates to calculate an expected pessimistic completion time and variance for each activity. We can use the formula: t = a + 4m +b and v = b a 2 – 6 6 where: a = optimistic time for activity completion b = pessimistic time for activity completion m = most likely time for activity completion t = expected time of activity completion v = variance of activity completion time Activity a m b t v Clear Site 3 4 5 Dig Foundation 1 3 5 Pour concrete 5 6 7 Build wall 6 7 8 Exercise Calculate Expected Time & variance for each activity Act Predecessor Opt Most like Pest t v a - 3 6 8 b - 2 4 4 c - 1 2 3 d a,b 6 7 8 e c 2 4 6 f e 6 10 14
PERT For each activity in PERT we must specify an optimistic time, a most probable time and a pessimistic time estimate. We then use three time estimates to calculate an expected completion time and variance for each activity. We can use the formula: t = a + 4m +b and v = b – a 2 6 6 where: a = optimistic time for activity completion b = pessimistic time for activity completion m = most likely time for activity completion t = expected time of activity completion v = variance of activity completion time Activity a m b t v Clear Site 3 4 5 Dig Foundation 1 3 5 Pour concrete 5 6 7 Build wall 6 7 8 Exercise Calculate Expected Time & variance for each activity Act Predecessor Opt Most like Pest t v a - 3 6 8 b - 2 4 4 c - 1 2 3 d a,b 6 7 8 e c 2 4 6 f e 6 10 14
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