on these assumptions, total estimated halon 1301 requirements to 2060 are 139.0 tonnes under Scenario 2. Scenario 2 does not take into account prolonged ADF use of halon 1211 or 1301. Conclusions Table 6 presents estimates of future halon requirements based on the assumptions for Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 described above. These rough estimates provide only an indication of possible future requirements. It is important to note that ADF uses are included in current consumption, but there may also be consumption from its own stock, and its on-going consumption is unknown. Until there is a better quantitative understanding of ADF uses and stocks it would be unwise to use these projections alone. When considering these rough projections, it will be important to include a safety margin before coming to any decision on stocks required in meeting future halon requirements. Table 6: Estimated Future Halon Requirements Total Halon Halon 1211 Halon 1301 (tonnes) Scenario 1 55 229 Scenario 2 35 139 Potential NHB stocks 73-95 195 Nevertheless, the different scenarios provide an interesting sensitivity analysis of the impact of possible policy decisions and industry response on future halon requirements. Using our scenarios, future requirements of both halons 1211 and 1301 can be almost halved by implementing measures that bring about aviation industry change. Faster change for industry would impose greater costs to the aviation sector, and lower costs to the Australian Government from NHB management. Slower change for industry, or at the very worst no change with business as usual, would impose greater costs to the Australian Government from NHB management for a longer period of time, and potential risks to the aviation sector of halon demand outstripping available stocks. With change underway with ICAO and EU aviation requirements announced, and in the process of their refinement and implementation, and with government and aviation industry responses under development, it would be worth revisiting future halon requirements within the next 5 years.
on these assumptions, total estimated halon 1301 requirements to 2060 are 139.0 tonnes under Scenario 2. Scenario 2 does not take into account prolonged ADF use of halon 1211 or 1301. Conclusions Table 6 presents estimates of future halon requirements based on the assumptions for Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 described above. These rough estimates provide only an indication of possible future requirements. It is important to note that ADF uses are included in current consumption, but there may also be consumption from its own stock, and its on-going consumption is unknown. Until there is a better quantitative understanding of ADF uses and stocks it would be unwise to use these projections alone. When considering these rough projections, it will be important to include a safety margin before coming to any decision on stocks required in meeting future halon requirements. Table 6: Estimated Future Halon Requirements Total Halon (tonnes) Halon 1211 Halon 1301 Scenario 1 55 229 Scenario 2 35 139 Potential NHB stocks 73-95 195 Nevertheless, the different scenarios provide an interesting sensitivity analysis of the impact of possible policy decisions and industry response on future halon requirements. Using our scenarios, future requirements of both halons 1211 and 1301 can be almost halved by implementing measures that bring about aviation industry change. Faster change for industry would impose greater costs to the aviation sector, and lower costs to the Australian Government from NHB management. Slower change for industry, or at the very worst no change with business as usual, would impose greater costs to the Australian Government from NHB management for a longer period of time, and potential risks to the aviation sector of halon demand outstripping available stocks. With change underway with ICAO and EU aviation requirements announced, and in the process of their refinement and implementation, and with government and aviation industry responses under development, it would be worth revisiting future halon requirements within the next 5 years.
review-halon-essential-use-requirements.docx