Moving average: 1 – – – – – –0.26 quarter Model fit Adjusted R-squared 0.83 0.80 0.84 0.85 0.85 0.84 F-statistic 25.09 22.46 19.30 26.70 27.00 24.84 a a a a a a Coefficient significant at the 95 per cent confidence level. Coefficients for lags of demand are jointly insignificant at the a b 95 per cent confidence level. c Structural break occurs at the September quarter of 2007. Note: See A1 for description of model types. Table B5 Short-run models of domestic market share in total consumption Model SH1 SH2 SH3 Current price variable coefficients Domestic price a –0.38 – – Import price 0.30 a – – Steel price 0.08 – – Lagged price variable coefficients Domestic price: 1 a – –0.42 – quarter Import 1 – –0.03 – quarter Steel price: 1 0.03 – – quarter Domestic price: 2 – – –0.21 quarters Import price: 2 – – –0.06 quarters price: 2 0.15 – – quarters Constant and seasonal dummies Constant a a a –0.02 –0.01 –0.02 quarter 0.03 a 0.02 a 0.02 a June quarter 0.02 a 0.02 a 0.02 a September quarter 0.02 a 0.02 0.02 a Model fit Adjusted 0.54 0.20 0.13 F-statistic 11.41 a 3.20 a 2.24 a a Coefficient significant at the 95 per cent confidence level.
Moving average: 1 quarter – – – – – –0.26 Model fit Adjusted R-squared 0.83 0.80 0.84 0.85 0.85 0.84 F-statistic 25.09 a 22.46 a 19.30 a 26.70 a 27.00 a 24.84 a a Coefficient significant at the 95 per cent confidence level. b Coefficients for lags of demand are jointly insignificant at the 95 per cent confidence level. c Structural break occurs at the September quarter of 2007. Note: See A1 for description of model types. Table B5 Short-run models of domestic market share in total consumption Model SH1 SH2 SH3 Current price variable coefficients Domestic price –0.38 a – – Import price 0.30 a – – Steel price 0.08 – – Lagged price variable coefficients Domestic price: 1 quarter – –0.42 a – Import 1 quarter – –0.03 – Steel price: 1 quarter – 0.03 – Domestic price: 2 quarters – – –0.21 Import price: 2 quarters – – –0.06 price: 2 quarters – – 0.15 Constant and seasonal dummies Constant –0.02 a –0.01 a –0.02 a quarter 0.03 a 0.02 a 0.02 a June quarter 0.02 a 0.02 a 0.02 a September quarter 0.02 a 0.02 0.02 a Model fit Adjusted 0.54 0.20 0.13 F-statistic 11.41 a 3.20 a 2.24 a a Coefficient significant at the 95 per cent confidence level.
ResponsivenessDemandStructuralPine_v1.0.0.docx