Temperature 1 2.5°C average Average annual 3 5.5°C average – – annual increase in increases of between 1 annual increase in temperature under and 3 °C under RCP8.5 temperature under RCP8.5, exceeding RCP8.5, substantially Under RCP4.5, within historical climate exceeding historical the range of historical variability. variability. climate variability. RCP4.5, within the Below 4°C increase range of historical under RCP4.5 climate variability. Rainfall Slight drying under RCP Slight drying under RCP Slight drying RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, but within the range of but within the range of but within the range of current climate current climate current climate variability. variability. variability. Near term (2015 2035) Mid term (2040 2060) Long term (2080 2100) Zone 5 (Eastern Cape) – – – Temperature Already reaching and Average annual 2 5°C average annual – exceeding 2°C historical increases of between 1 increase in temperature climate variability under and 2 °C under RCP8.5, under RCP8.5, RCP 8.5. exceeding historical substantially exceeding climate variability historical variability. Under RCP4.5, within the range of historical Under RCP4.5, within Below 3°C increase climate variability. the range of historical under RCP4.5, climate variability. exceeding historical variability. Rainfall Drying under RCP 4.5 Drying under RCP 4.5 Drying under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, well and 8.5 scenarios, well and 8.5 scenarios, well outside the range of outside the range of outside the range of current climate current climate current climate variability. variability. variability. Zone 6 (Southwestern Near term (2015 2035) Mid term (2040 2060) Long term (2080 2100) – – – Cape)
Temperature 1 – 2.5°C average annual increase in temperature under RCP8.5, exceeding historical climate variability. RCP4.5, within the range of historical climate variability. Average annual increases of between 1 and 3 °C under RCP8.5 Under RCP4.5, within the range of historical climate variability. 3 – 5.5°C average annual increase in temperature under RCP8.5, substantially exceeding historical variability. Below 4°C increase under RCP4.5 Rainfall Slight drying under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, but within the range of current climate variability. Slight drying under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, but within the range of current climate variability. Slight drying RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, but within the range of current climate variability. Zone 5 (Eastern Cape) Near term (2015 – 2035) Mid term (2040 – 2060) Long term (2080 – 2100) Temperature Already reaching and exceeding 2°C historical climate variability under RCP 8.5. Under RCP4.5, within the range of historical climate variability. Average annual increases of between 1 and 2 °C under RCP8.5, exceeding historical climate variability Under RCP4.5, within the range of historical climate variability. 2 – 5°C average annual increase in temperature under RCP8.5, substantially exceeding historical variability. Below 3°C increase under RCP4.5, exceeding historical variability. Rainfall Drying under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, well outside the range of current climate variability. Drying under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, well outside the range of current climate variability. Drying under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, well outside the range of current climate variability. Zone 6 (Southwestern Cape) Near term (2015 – 2035) Mid term (2040 – 2060) Long term (2080 – 2100)
risk_and_vulnerability_260803part1.docx