This assumes that bettors are subject to a Dutch book, and shows that the bookmaker profit margin increases as the sum of probabilities increases beyond 1. However, a bookmaker quoting odds with high implied probabilities is only guaranteed to attract bettors with even more (the term for “incoherent” beliefs subjective probability estimates adding to above probability = 1). Rational probability judgments are to 1 for a complete set of events, and prevent an “coherent,” summing individual from accepting a sequence of bets guaranteed to make her poorer (Seidenfeld, 1985). Incoherence will be used as the dependent variable in the experiments that follow as a simple measure of judgment quality, although this is not the only valid measure (Seidenfeld, 1985). A plausible hypothesis therefore is that soccer gambling advertising reflects fans’ probability judgment biases. This hypothesis is tested with a combination of observational and experimental data. Six experiments show that soccer fans struggle to form coherent probability estimates for the complex events found across an observational study of high-profile TV adverts. The discussion provides public policy implications. TV adverts observational study Method Live-odds gambling adverts were recorded during all televised English Premier League soccer matches over January and February 2016. While betting adverts are shown during other sports and other soccer matches, the English Premier League is the most high-profile league of the favorite sport. The Gambling Commission UK’s and Advertising Standards Agency were contacted before data collection; neither body stated that they kept any records of bets advertised on TV. Similar gambling
This assumes that bettors are subject to a Dutch book, and shows that the bookmaker profit margin increases as the sum of probabilities increases beyond 1. However, a bookmaker quoting odds with high implied probabilities is only guaranteed to attract bettors with even more “incoherent” beliefs (the term for subjective probability estimates adding to above probability = 1). Rational probability judgments are “coherent,” summing to 1 for a complete set of events, and prevent an individual from accepting a sequence of bets guaranteed to make her poorer (Seidenfeld, 1985). Incoherence will be used as the dependent variable in the experiments that follow as a simple measure of judgment quality, although this is not the only valid measure (Seidenfeld, 1985). A plausible hypothesis therefore is that soccer gambling advertising reflects fans’ probability judgment biases. This hypothesis is tested with a combination of observational and experimental data. Six experiments show that soccer fans struggle to form coherent probability estimates for the complex events found across an observational study of high-profile TV adverts. The discussion provides public policy implications. TV adverts observational study Method Live-odds gambling adverts were recorded during all televised English Premier League soccer matches over January and February 2016. While betting adverts are shown during other sports and other soccer matches, the English Premier League is the most high-profile league of the UK’s favorite sport. The Gambling Commission and Advertising Standards Agency were contacted before data collection; neither body stated that they kept any records of bets advertised on TV. Similar gambling
Philip%20Newall%20PhD%20thesis%20household%20financial%20decision%20making.docx