where denotes the efficiency of hydropower production, which is assumed to be 80 percent at all times, is the turbine outflow on each day (m3/s), and indicates the net head (m) on each day. The coefficients of 24 and 9.807 represent the number of hours in a day and the rate of gravitational acceleration at the Earth’s surface (m/s2), respectively. Tables Decision High flows (Q5) Low flows (Q95) Overall alteration Making Approach Deterministic Alteration. Exceeds the Alteration. Exceeds the Alteration. Thresholds 30% decrease threshold, 50% increase threshold, at both sites are an adverse ecological an adverse ecological exceeded, an adverse impact will occur if impact will if ecological impact will operations are not operations are not occur if operations are changed. changed. not changed. Null hypothesis No alteration. = 0.09. No alteration. = 0.10, No alteration. = 0.18, significance Alteration insignificant, Alteration insignificant, Alteration insignificant, testing (p < no significant risk of an no significant risk of an no significant risk of an 0.05) adverse ecological adverse ecological adverse ecological impact. impact. impact. Fixing the type Hydropower and Hydropower and Substantial regret I error ecological regret ecological regret probabilities, decision probability at probabilities are probabilities are depends on relative 0.20, using similar. similar. hydropower and decision tree Even though is much Even though is much ecological values. higher than 0.05, (0.38) higher than 0.05, (0.26) While the hydropower indicates a high indicates a high and ecological regret likelihood that test will likelihood that test will probabilities are 0.44 not recommend not recommend and 0.46, respectively, changing the reservoir changing the reservoir the greater potential operating rule when operating rule when ecological consequences necessary. necessary. of HPFOI make
where denotes the efficiency of hydropower production, which is assumed to be 80 percent at all times, is the turbine outflow on each day (m3/s), and indicates the net head (m) on each day. The coefficients of 24 and 9.807 represent the number of hours in a day and the rate of gravitational acceleration at the Earth’s surface (m/s2), respectively. Tables Decision Making Approach High flows (Q5) Low flows (Q95) Overall alteration Deterministic Alteration. Exceeds the 30% decrease threshold, an adverse ecological impact will occur if operations are not changed. Alteration. Exceeds the 50% increase threshold, an adverse ecological impact will if operations are not changed. Alteration. Thresholds at both sites are exceeded, an adverse ecological impact will occur if operations are not changed. Null hypothesis significance testing (p < 0.05) No alteration. = 0.09. Alteration insignificant, no significant risk of an adverse ecological impact. No alteration. = 0.10, Alteration insignificant, no significant risk of an adverse ecological impact. No alteration. = 0.18, Alteration insignificant, no significant risk of an adverse ecological impact. Fixing the type I error probability at 0.20, using decision tree Hydropower and ecological regret probabilities are similar. Even though is much higher than 0.05, (0.38) indicates a high likelihood that test will not recommend changing the reservoir operating rule when necessary. Hydropower and ecological regret probabilities are similar. Even though is much higher than 0.05, (0.26) indicates a high likelihood that test will not recommend changing the reservoir operating rule when necessary. Substantial regret probabilities, decision depends on relative hydropower and ecological values. While the hydropower and ecological regret probabilities are 0.44 and 0.46, respectively, the greater potential ecological consequences of HPFOI make
jhecht_hydropower_flow_alteration_decisions_for_hrf.docx