values of certain parent nodes and calculating the change in probability distribution for the final node, average DES. The change for each bin in the probability distribution was derived by subtracting the final probabilities from the originals, displayed in Figure 23. Note that average DES had an initial distribution of 4.84% for its lowest bin, 27.67% for the next, 30.98% in the middle, 30.30% in the second highest, and 6.20% in the highest bin. Figure 23. Original Probability Distribution for Average Daily Energy Supply (DES) 1. International Refusal to Sell Cereals The first crisis for observation attempted to emulate the 2008 global food price spike. That year, the price of cereals nearly tripled from $180 per ton in 2007 to $386 per ton. International exporters reduced availability from 4,309,986 tons in 2007 to 3,204,774 tons in 2008. The effects of these changes propagated into Oman’s ability to import cereals, subsequently obtaining only 646,160 tons of cereals in 2008. Accordingly, the scenario involving the international refusal to sell cereals fixed the probability distributions of two nodes: international exports of cereals was fixed to its lower bin of less than 5,000,000 tons, and the price of cereals node was set to its higher bin of greater than $140 per metric ton. Figure 24a displays the subsequent changes in the Bayesian belief network, and Figure 24b calculated the changes in probability distribution for each bin in average DES. In this scenario, the likelihood of Oman having a lower average DES increased, as the lowest bin and second lowest bin respectively increased 0.36% and 1.13% in probability. All bins in excess of 3,000 kilocalories per person per day decreased in probability. The middle bin dropped 0.84%, the second highest by 0.19%, and the highest by 0.44%.
values of certain parent nodes and calculating the change in probability distribution for the final node, average DES. The change for each bin in the probability distribution was derived by subtracting the final probabilities from the originals, displayed in Figure 23. Note that average DES had an initial distribution of 4.84% for its lowest bin, 27.67% for the next, 30.98% in the middle, 30.30% in the second highest, and 6.20% in the highest bin. Figure 23. Original Probability Distribution for Average Daily Energy Supply (DES) 1. International Refusal to Sell Cereals The first crisis for observation attempted to emulate the 2008 global food price spike. That year, the price of cereals nearly tripled from $180 per ton in 2007 to $386 per ton. International exporters reduced availability from 4,309,986 tons in 2007 to 3,204,774 tons in 2008. The effects of these changes propagated into Oman’s ability to import cereals, subsequently obtaining only 646,160 tons of cereals in 2008. Accordingly, the scenario involving the international refusal to sell cereals fixed the probability distributions of two nodes: international exports of cereals was fixed to its lower bin of less than 5,000,000 tons, and the price of cereals node was set to its higher bin of greater than $140 per metric ton. Figure 24a displays the subsequent changes in the Bayesian belief network, and Figure 24b calculated the changes in probability distribution for each bin in average DES. In this scenario, the likelihood of Oman having a lower average DES increased, as the lowest bin and second lowest bin respectively increased 0.36% and 1.13% in probability. All bins in excess of 3,000 kilocalories per person per day decreased in probability. The middle bin dropped 0.84%, the second highest by 0.19%, and the highest by 0.44%.
Howard%20-%20WPSA%20-%20Crisis%20Averted%20Omans%20Food%20Security%20Outlook.docx