P(NA) P(A) Decision Rule No protection Ecosystem regret implemented P(NA|CNA) probability P(CNA) P(A|CNA) Hydropower regret Protection Implemented probability P(A|CA) P(CA) P(NA|CA) Figure 7: Regret probabilities for decision analysis in Figure 6 on a non-informative prior probability (0.5) of alteration. Figure 8: Relationship between hypothesis test error probabilities and decision regret probabilities (contours) Figure 9: Inflows and outflows of hypothetical reservoir Figure 10: Tradeoffs between type I and II errors and regret probabilities for high- and low-flow alteration, Threshold Set 2. Figure 11: Optimal regret combinations when (a) a one-percent decrease in hydropower is weighted equally to a 1% increase in the likelihood of adverse ecological impacts, and (b) hydropower and ecological regret probabilities are weighted equally.
P(NA) P(A) Decision Rule No protection implemented P(CNA) P(NA|CNA) Ecosystem regret probability P(A|CNA) Protection Implemented P(CA) Hydropower regret probability P(NA|CA) P(A|CA) Figure 7: Regret probabilities for decision analysis in Figure 6 on a non-informative prior probability (0.5) of alteration. Figure 8: Relationship between hypothesis test error probabilities and decision regret probabilities (contours) Figure 9: Inflows and outflows of hypothetical reservoir Figure 10: Tradeoffs between type I and II errors and regret probabilities for high- and low-flow alteration, Threshold Set 2. Figure 11: Optimal regret combinations when (a) a one-percent decrease in hydropower is weighted equally to a 1% increase in the likelihood of adverse ecological impacts, and (b) hydropower and ecological regret probabilities are weighted equally.
jhecht_hydropower_flow_alteration_decisions_for_hrf.docx