Witt, Song, Denmark Real private Annual Static For both 2- and expenditure consumption - 1969 - Regression, and Louvieris per 1999 ahead (2003) number capita, the real cost of forecasting of nights living for tourists VAR, the horizons,the spent by (adjusted by the Time-Varying VAR model tourists exchange rate), prices Parameter generates the in substitute (TVP) most destinations, travel approach - The cost (airfare), dummy univariate variables (oil crisis, timeseries forecasts. Gulf War, German models For a unification, comprise an Chernobyl/U.S. ARIMA forecasting bombing of Libya) model and the horizon,the no-change TVP model model and the reduced ADLM generate the most unbiased forecasts Song, Witt & Thailand Income in origin Annual ARIMA, ARIMA Li (2003) (1) tourist country, relative Naive, TVP produces the ADLM, arrivals tourism price, - most modest substitute tourism 2000 prediction price, trade volume, (with the habit persistence, and exception of ECM, dummy variables (two Singapore), and oil crises, Visit while the Thailand JML-ECM Year’ campaign, Asian generates the financial most crisis, Seoul optimistic Olympics, and student forecasts. demonstrations in Habit ECM Korea in 1980) persistence is the most important factor. Nadal, Font, ECM Intra-year Y/P ER RC income in - & Rossello variation in origin country, (2004) (2) arrivals to exchange rate - the Balearic 1982 - Islands 2001 Dritsakis VAR Long-run International tourism - Significant economic earnings causality (2004) growth of Greece (real gross domestic product & real effective exchange rate)
Witt, Song, and Louvieris (2003) Denmark number of nights spent by tourists Real private consumption expenditure per capita, the real cost of living for tourists (adjusted by the exchange rate), prices in substitute destinations, travel cost (airfare), dummy variables (oil crisis, Gulf War, German unification, Chernobyl/U.S. bombing of Libya) Annual - 1969 - 1999 Static Regression, VAR, the Time-Varying Parameter (TVP) approach - The univariate timeseries models comprise an ARIMA model and the no-change model For both 2- and forecasting horizons,the VAR model generates the most forecasts. For a forecasting horizon,the TVP model and the reduced ADLM generate the most unbiased forecasts Song, Witt & Li (2003) (1) ADLM, ECM, and ECM Thailand tourist arrivals Income in origin country, relative tourism price, substitute tourism price, trade volume, habit persistence, and dummy variables (two oil crises, Visit Thailand Year’ campaign, Asian financial crisis, Seoul Olympics, and student demonstrations in Korea in 1980) Annual - 2000 ARIMA, Naive, TVP ARIMA produces the most modest prediction (with the exception of Singapore), while the JML-ECM generates the most optimistic forecasts. Habit persistence is the most important factor. Nadal, Font, & Rossello (2004) (2) ECM Intra-year variation in arrivals to the Balearic Islands Y/P ER RC income in origin country, exchange rate - 1982 - 2001 - Dritsakis (2004) VAR Long-run economic growth of Greece (real gross domestic product & real effective exchange rate) International tourism earnings - Significant causality ahead
I1_2_FinalReport_F.docx