destination country Cho (2001) ARIMAX Hong ARIMA (univariate) ARIMAX is the (adjusted Kong residuals of - ARIMA, best forecasting ARIMA) tourist GDP/GNP, 1/1975 Exponential method for Japan, arrivals Smoothing while univariate rate, money ARIMA is the best supply, predictor for the Consumer US and UK Price Index (CPI), imports, exports, and discount rate Akal (2004) AR(I)MAX Tourism Tourist Annual - Static AR(I)MAX revenues arrivals 1963 - Regression outperformed for Turkey 2001 the simple econometric technique ARIMA (1, Tourist Monthly Exponential ARIMA(1,1,1) Petmezas, 1, 1) numbers to levels, - smoothing performs better Greece Consumer models & Santamaria Price Indices (2012) (*) (CPI), and Consumer Confidence Indicators of the country of origin ShuiKi, SARIMA Tourist Monthly Seasonal SARIMA pefrorms arrivals to moving better ShinHuei, & ChiKeung Hong average (2013) Kong model & model. Baldigara SARIMA German No and tourist - 2003 comparison is adequate Mamula flows to - 2012 (2015) Croatia Univariate ETS, NN, No single model Hassani, Silva, approach / tourist TBATS, outperforms others Parametric arrivals to ARFIMA, in all cases. Neural Filis, & and European MA, Networks and Gupta countries WMA, ARFIMA have the (2017) SSA-R and worst performance forecasting SSA-V techniques, including ARIMA (*) Gounopoulos, Petmezas, & Santamaria (2012) use of unemployment and consumer confidence as alternative proxies for the state of the economy in the country of origin. Although no studies have yet to document the impact of macroeconomic shocks on future arrivals, reviewing the wider literature on the impact of unemployment, tourists’ changes in the cost of living, and consumer confidence could provide useful inferences on potential effects tourists’ to international tourism flows.
destination country Cho (2001) ARIMAX (adjusted ARIMA) Hong Kong tourist arrivals ARIMA residuals of GDP/GNP, rate, money supply, Consumer Price Index (CPI), imports, exports, and discount rate - 1/1975 (univariate) ARIMA, Exponential Smoothing ARIMAX is the best forecasting method for Japan, while univariate ARIMA is the best predictor for the US and UK Akal (2004) AR(I)MAX Tourism revenues for Turkey Tourist arrivals Annual - 1963 - 2001 Static Regression AR(I)MAX outperformed the simple econometric technique Petmezas, & Santamaria (2012) (*) ARIMA (1, 1, 1) Tourist numbers to Greece levels, Consumer Price Indices (CPI), and Consumer Confidence Indicators of the country of origin Monthly - Exponential smoothing models ARIMA(1,1,1) performs better ShuiKi, ShinHuei, & ChiKeung (2013) SARIMA Tourist arrivals to Hong Kong Monthly Seasonal moving average model & model. SARIMA pefrorms better Baldigara and Mamula (2015) SARIMA German tourist flows to Croatia - 2003 - 2012 No comparison is adequate Hassani, Silva, Filis, & Gupta (2017) Univariate approach / Parametric and forecasting techniques, including ARIMA tourist arrivals to European countries ETS, NN, TBATS, ARFIMA, MA, WMA, SSA-R and SSA-V No single model outperforms others in all cases. Neural Networks and ARFIMA have the worst performance (*) Gounopoulos, Petmezas, & Santamaria (2012) use of unemployment and consumer confidence as alternative proxies for the state of the economy in the country of origin. Although no studies have yet to document the impact of macroeconomic shocks on future tourists’ arrivals, reviewing the wider literature on the impact of unemployment, changes in the tourists’ cost of living, and consumer confidence could provide useful inferences on potential effects to international tourism flows.
I1_2_FinalReport_F.docx