Table 6.10 Probability of success and failure at interim and final analysis in adaptive design settings, the mean subjects are summarized in the last column across 5,000 simulations. A) Bayesian model in the analysis dose response models; B) Bayesian NDLM model in the Emax analysis dose response models A True Dose Bayesian model Emax Response Prob. of early Prob. of early Prob. of final Prob. of final Mean success failure success failure subjects Placebo like flat curve 0.00 0.23 0.04 0.73 61.2 with Emax EC50=3 0.74 0.00 0.26 0.01 54.8 Log Linear Curve 0.58 0.00 0.40 0.02 57.0 U-Shaped curve 0.06 0.09 0.10 0.75 61.5 B True Dose Bayesian NDLM model Response Prob. of early Prob. of Prob. of final Prob. of final Mean subjects success early failure success failure Placebo like flat curve 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.88 63.9 with Emax EC50=3 0.53 0.00 0.44 0.03 57.4 Log Linear Curve 0.45 0.00 0.47 0.08 57.9 U-Shaped curve 0.41 0.00 0.47 0.12 58.6
Table 6.10 Probability of success and failure at interim and final analysis in adaptive design settings, the mean subjects are summarized in the last column across 5,000 simulations. A) Bayesian Emax model in the analysis dose response models; B) Bayesian NDLM model in the analysis dose response models A True Dose Response Bayesian Emax model Prob. of early success Prob. of early failure Prob. of final success Prob. of final failure Mean subjects Placebo like flat curve 0.00 0.23 0.04 0.73 61.2 Emax with EC50=3 0.74 0.00 0.26 0.01 54.8 Log Linear Curve 0.58 0.00 0.40 0.02 57.0 U-Shaped curve 0.06 0.09 0.10 0.75 61.5 B True Dose Response Bayesian NDLM model Prob. of early success Prob. of early failure Prob. of final success Prob. of final failure Mean subjects Placebo like flat curve 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.88 63.9 Emax with EC50=3 0.53 0.00 0.44 0.03 57.4 Log Linear Curve 0.45 0.00 0.47 0.08 57.9 U-Shaped curve 0.41 0.00 0.47 0.12 58.6
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