Further economic decline causes a violent transition away from hegemony Kupchan 11 Charles A. Kupchan, professor of international affairs at Georgetown University and senior fellow of the Council on Foreign Relations for US. Foreign policy, July 2011 “Grand strategy and power transitions” An alternative pathway to conflict could entail the impact of unforeseen economic shocks on Chinese and U.S. grand strategy. As the inter-war period amply demonstrated, economic duress can cause both strategic excess and the converse – dangerous under-balancing. China, the United States, and the broader international community seem to have handled reasonably well the “Great Recession” of 2008-2010, avoiding the steep and enduring declines in economic performance of the sort that produced strategic dysfunction during the 1930s. At least to some extent, the international community seems to have learned the lessons of the 1930s and avoided the sauve qui peut attitudes that fragmented the collective staying power of the status quo states during the inter-war period. Nonetheless, the potential for future economic shocks to complicate the coming power transition remains very real.
Further economic decline causes a violent transition away from hegemony Kupchan 11 Charles A. Kupchan, professor of international affairs at Georgetown University and senior fellow of the Council on Foreign Relations for US. Foreign policy, July 2011 “Grand strategy and power transitions” An alternative pathway to conflict could entail the impact of unforeseen economic shocks on Chinese and U.S. grand strategy. As the inter-war period amply demonstrated, economic duress can cause both strategic excess and the converse – dangerous under-balancing. China, the United States, and the broader international community seem to have handled reasonably well the “Great Recession” of 2008-2010, avoiding the steep and enduring declines in economic performance of the sort that produced strategic dysfunction during the 1930s. At least to some extent, the international community seems to have learned the lessons of the 1930s and avoided the sauve qui peut attitudes that fragmented the collective staying power of the status quo states during the inter-war period. Nonetheless, the potential for future economic shocks to complicate the coming power transition remains very real.
Hegemony_Core_7WK.docx