changing to HPROR worthwhile. Optimal and The hydropower The hydropower The hydropower (minimizing regret dominates regret dominates regret dominates total regret) because hydropower because hydropower because hydropower losses are less losses are less losses are much less important than important than important than ecosystem losses. is ecosystem losses. is ecosystem losses. Since much higher (> 0.99) much higher (> 0.99) is very high for both than (< 0.01). The than (< 0.01). The high and low flows, it is lower consequence of lower consequence of also very high for hydropower regrets hydropower regrets overall alteration. makes a higher much makes a higher much Similarly, since is very more tolerable. more tolerable. low for both flows, it is very low for overall alteration. Management implications of different decision-making approaches. 1: Figures Pre- and post-dam annual flow duration curves from the stylized example in Sec 5. Figure 1: Unknown Truth Alteration not Alteration above threshold threshold Alteration, A Decision Rule No Alteration, NA Keep reservoir operation Under-protection error rules (Type II error) P(CNA|NA) (Conclude No Alteration) CNA P(CNA|A) Over-protection Change reservoir operation (Type I error) P(CA|A)
changing to HPROR worthwhile. Optimal and (minimizing total regret) The hydropower regret dominates because hydropower losses are less important than ecosystem losses. is much higher (> 0.99) than (< 0.01). The lower consequence of hydropower regrets makes a higher much more tolerable. The hydropower regret dominates because hydropower losses are less important than ecosystem losses. is much higher (> 0.99) than (< 0.01). The lower consequence of hydropower regrets makes a higher much more tolerable. The hydropower regret dominates because hydropower losses are much less important than ecosystem losses. Since is very high for both high and low flows, it is also very high for overall alteration. Similarly, since is very low for both flows, it is very low for overall alteration. 1: Management implications of different decision-making approaches. Figures Figure 1: Pre- and post-dam annual flow duration curves from the stylized example in Sec 5. Decision Rule Unknown Truth Alteration not threshold No Alteration, NA Alteration above threshold Alteration, A Keep reservoir operation rules (Conclude No Alteration) CNA P(CNA|NA) Under-protection error (Type II error) P(CNA|A) Change reservoir operation Over-protection (Type I error) P(CA|A)
jhecht_hydropower_flow_alteration_decisions_for_hrf.docx