Witt & Witt ADLM France, Income in origin Annual Naive 1,2 AR, (1992) Germany, country, prices, - Exponential UK, and US exchange rate, travel 1965 - Smoothing, tourist cost (airfare), travel 1980 ARIMA arrivals cost to substitute Trends destinations, currency restrictions, dummy variables Syriopoulos Y/P C RC ER D Annual - (1995) DT(ST) income in - countries origin country, 1962 - tourism relative tourism price, 1987 exchange rate, dummy variable, deterministic (linear) trend (stochastic trend) Song, ECM UK Income in origin Annual Naive, AR(1), ECM model Romilly, and outbound country, relative - 1965 - ARMA, VAR has the best Liu (2000) tourism - price, substitute price, 1994 overall total or per the preference index forecasting capita (incorporates social, performance tourism cultural and visits psychological influences on tourists' from the decisions), dummy origin variable country Shan & VAR China Tourist arrivals, - Wilson tourist income in origin - (2001) arrivals country, relative 1/1987 price, exports, - imports, exchange 1/1998 rate ADLM Balearic Exchange rate, Other Naïve ARIMA Nadal (2001) Islands economic indicators - tourist 1/1975 arrivals - Song, Witt & ECM - Denmark Real private Annual Static The TVP Jensen Two expenditure consumption - regression, model (2003) ECMs, per capita 1969 - ADLM, generates the one number in origin country, the 1997 unrestricted most based of nights real cost of living for VAR, TVP, accurate on the spent by tourists (adjusted by and two WB tourists the exchange rate), univariate forecasts. prices in substitute time-series The TVP destinations, travel models and static and the cost (airfare), dummy (ARIMA and models other on variables (oil crisis, no-change generate the the JML Gulf War, German model) most unification, accurate Chernobyl/U.S. bombing of Libya forecasts. For 3- and forecasts the static model is ranked first.
Witt & Witt (1992) ADLM France, Germany, UK, and US tourist arrivals Income in origin country, prices, exchange rate, travel cost (airfare), travel cost to substitute destinations, currency restrictions, dummy variables Annual - 1965 - 1980 Naive 1,2 AR, Exponential Smoothing, ARIMA Trends Syriopoulos (1995) countries tourism Y/P C RC ER D DT(ST) income in origin country, relative tourism price, exchange rate, dummy variable, deterministic (linear) trend (stochastic trend) Annual - 1962 - 1987 - Song, Romilly, and Liu (2000) ECM UK outbound tourism - total or per capita tourism visits from the origin country Income in origin country, relative price, substitute price, the preference index (incorporates social, cultural and psychological influences on tourists' decisions), dummy variable Annual - 1965 - 1994 Naive, AR(1), ARMA, VAR ECM model has the best overall forecasting performance Shan & Wilson (2001) VAR China tourist arrivals Tourist arrivals, income in origin country, relative price, exports, imports, exchange rate - 1/1987 - 1/1998 - (2001) ADLM Balearic Islands tourist arrivals Exchange rate, Other economic indicators - 1/1975 - Naïve ARIMA Song, Witt & Jensen (2003) ECM - Two ECMs, one based on the WB and the other on the JML Denmark number of nights spent by tourists Real private consumption expenditure per capita in origin country, the real cost of living for tourists (adjusted by the exchange rate), prices in substitute destinations, travel cost (airfare), dummy variables (oil crisis, Gulf War, German unification, Chernobyl/U.S. bombing of Libya Annual - 1969 - 1997 Static regression, ADLM, unrestricted VAR, TVP, and two univariate time-series models (ARIMA and no-change model) The TVP model generates the most accurate forecasts. The TVP and static models generate the most accurate forecasts. For 3- and forecasts the static model is ranked first. Nadal
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