productivity in the future. Finally, comparisons of results across the cases of analyses were difficult, and there were tradeoffs between qualitative and quantitative analyses: The qualitative analysis allowed us to infer the behavior of several SFP metrics, but did not provide specific values. In contrast, the quantitative analysis gave specific results, but restricted the analysis due to lack of data to just two SFP metrics on the demand side of rail transportation: revenue SFP and ridership SFP, both with respect to operating cost. Naturally, there is room for major improvements in the analysis. The introduction of available seat-miles SFP or any other metric on the supply side will allow us not only to understand the supply side of the services, but also to understand the implications for profitability and further growth when compared to the demand side. Additional cases of analysis could be included, e.g., cases with substantial ridership changes, or cases based upon the preliminary alternatives report of the NEC FUTURE. Another improvement would be the development of a way to allocate operating costs at the route level, which would permit a comparison of performance between regional and express services, and perhaps the refinement of a strategy to mix those services. Finally, more disaggregate data at the specific route-level or O-D-level, or additional information on the way in which Amtrak made the forecasts (which might be available in the Business “NEC and would allow a direct comparison between future and past productivity, and Financial Plan”), expand the analysis of the future productivity of the NEC. Recommendations Recommendations for the Prospects of HSR in the NEC Amtrak set forth a myriad of short-, medium-, and long-term goals and objectives to advance its vision for HSR in the NEC. In addition, the ongoing NEC FUTURE planning process frequently receives public input. Thus, there are some ways in which the current prospects for HSR in the NEC could be enriched by the findings of this thesis, in order to reduce risk and to take advantage of the opportunities of the corridor: The projections of ridership and revenue should be revised, given that they might be underestimated. This is in line with short-term (6-12 months) goal to Amtrak’s “Further refine and develop program alternatives as part of the capital expenditure re-profiling (Amtrak 2012). efforts…”
productivity in the future. Finally, comparisons of results across the cases of analyses were difficult, and there were tradeoffs between qualitative and quantitative analyses: The qualitative analysis allowed us to infer the behavior of several SFP metrics, but did not provide specific values. In contrast, the quantitative analysis gave specific results, but restricted the analysis due to lack of data to just two SFP metrics on the demand side of rail transportation: revenue SFP and ridership SFP, both with respect to operating cost. Naturally, there is room for major improvements in the analysis. The introduction of available seat-miles SFP or any other metric on the supply side will allow us not only to understand the supply side of the services, but also to understand the implications for profitability and further growth when compared to the demand side. Additional cases of analysis could be included, e.g., cases with substantial ridership changes, or cases based upon the preliminary alternatives report of the NEC FUTURE. Another improvement would be the development of a way to allocate operating costs at the route level, which would permit a comparison of performance between regional and express services, and perhaps the refinement of a strategy to mix those services. Finally, more disaggregate data at the specific route-level or O-D-level, or additional information on the way in which Amtrak made the forecasts (which might be available in the “NEC Business and Financial Plan”), would allow a direct comparison between future and past productivity, and expand the analysis of the future productivity of the NEC. Recommendations Recommendations for the Prospects of HSR in the NEC Amtrak set forth a myriad of short-, medium-, and long-term goals and objectives to advance its vision for HSR in the NEC. In addition, the ongoing NEC FUTURE planning process frequently receives public input. Thus, there are some ways in which the current prospects for HSR in the NEC could be enriched by the findings of this thesis, in order to reduce risk and to take advantage of the opportunities of the corridor: The projections of ridership and revenue should be revised, given that they might be underestimated. This is in line with Amtrak’s short-term (6-12 months) goal to “Further refine and develop program alternatives as part of the capital expenditure re-profiling efforts…” (Amtrak 2012).
FinalReportArchilaNURail2012-MIT-R02.docx