APPENDIX B: Data inputs and sources Data inputs and sources for the baseline domestic forecast Economic Variables (all data are converted to fiscal year by APO) Model Model Label Description Notes input Source IHS Global Insight, Mnemonic: Consumer price index, all-urban, Source: Baseline: CPI.Q.FMS Index is used to calculate real prices, CPI BLS, Units: - 1982-84=1.00 seasonally Indirectly such as yield Optimistic: CPI.Q.FMBA2 adjusted Pessimistic: CPI.Q.FMBA1 IHS Global Insight, Mnemonic: Civilian unemployment rate Source: BLS Baseline: RUC.Q.FMS UNRATE Yes Units: - percent Optimistic: RUC.Q.FMBA2 Pessimistic: RUC.Q.FMBA1 IHS Global Insight, Mnemonic: Real Consumer Spending - Total personal Baseline: CONSR.Q.FMS PCE consumption expenditures, Source: BEA, Indirectly Optimistic: CONSR.Q.FMBA2 Units: Billion 2009 dollars annual rate. Variables are used to calculate Pessimistic: CONSR.Q.FMBA1 personal consumption expenditure per capita IHS Global Insight, Mnemonic: Total population, including armed forces Baseline: NP.Q.FMS POP overseas Source: Census Units: millions- Indirectly Optimistic: NP.Q.FMBA2 end of period Pessimistic: NP.Q.FMBA1
APPENDIX B: Data inputs and sources Data inputs and sources for the baseline domestic forecast Economic Variables (all data are converted to fiscal year by APO) Model Label Description Notes Model input Source CPI Consumer price index, all-urban, Source: BLS, Units: - 1982-84=1.00 seasonally adjusted Index is used to calculate real prices, such as yield Indirectly IHS Global Insight, Mnemonic: Baseline: CPI.Q.FMS Optimistic: CPI.Q.FMBA2 Pessimistic: CPI.Q.FMBA1 UNRATE Civilian unemployment rate Source: BLS Units: - percent Yes IHS Global Insight, Mnemonic: Baseline: RUC.Q.FMS Optimistic: RUC.Q.FMBA2 Pessimistic: RUC.Q.FMBA1 PCE Real Consumer Spending - Total personal consumption expenditures, Source: BEA, Units: Billion 2009 dollars annual rate. Variables are used to calculate personal consumption expenditure per capita Indirectly IHS Global Insight, Mnemonic: Baseline: CONSR.Q.FMS Optimistic: CONSR.Q.FMBA2 Pessimistic: CONSR.Q.FMBA1 POP Total population, including armed forces overseas Source: Census Units: millions- end of period Indirectly IHS Global Insight, Mnemonic: Baseline: NP.Q.FMS Optimistic: NP.Q.FMBA2 Pessimistic: NP.Q.FMBA1
FY2016-36_National_Forecast_Methodology.docx