Personal consumption expenditure per Is calculated by APO (PCE / Total Log of capita. APO-100 transforms data into population including armed forces Yes APO PCEPC natural log for model. overseas) IHS Global Insight, Mnemonic: Refiners Acquisition Cost. Weighted Baseline: POILRAP.Q.FMS average price of crude received in refinery RAC Yes Optimistic: POILRAP.Q.FMBA2 inventories Source: DOE Units: dollars per Pessimistic.: barrel- not seasonally adjusted POILRAP.Q.FMBA1 Aviation Variables (all data are converted to fiscal year by APO) Model Model Label Description Notes input Source Year Calendar year Month Month of year Unique Carrier Name. When the same name has been used by UniqueCarrierName multiple carriers, a numeric suffix is used for earlier users, for example, Bureau of Transportation Each carrier is categorized as being Indirectly Statistics, TranStats, Air Caribbean, Air Caribbean (1). either a network, regional, low fare or Unique Carrier Code. When the All carriers are known “other” carrier. same code has been used by carriers with the exception “mainline” of regionals. multiple carriers, a numeric suffix is UniqueCarrier used for earlier users, for example, PA, PA(1), PA(2). Use this field for analysis across a range of years.
Log of PCEPC Personal consumption expenditure per capita. APO-100 transforms data into natural log for model. Is calculated by APO (PCE / Total population including armed forces overseas) Yes APO RAC Refiners Acquisition Cost. Weighted average price of crude received in refinery inventories Source: DOE Units: dollars per barrel- not seasonally adjusted Yes IHS Global Insight, Mnemonic: Baseline: POILRAP.Q.FMS Optimistic: POILRAP.Q.FMBA2 Pessimistic.: POILRAP.Q.FMBA1 Aviation Variables (all data are converted to fiscal year by APO) Model Label Description Notes Model input Source Year Calendar year Indirectly Bureau of Transportation Statistics, TranStats, Month Month of year UniqueCarrierName Unique Carrier Name. When the same name has been used by multiple carriers, a numeric suffix is used for earlier users, for example, Air Caribbean, Air Caribbean (1). Each carrier is categorized as being either a network, regional, low fare or “other” carrier. All carriers are known “mainline” carriers with the exception of regionals. UniqueCarrier Unique Carrier Code. When the same code has been used by multiple carriers, a numeric suffix is used for earlier users, for example, PA, PA(1), PA(2). Use this field for analysis across a range of years.
FY2016-36_National_Forecast_Methodology.docx