Historical data is calculated via RPMs / ASMs. Forecast load factor is estimated by the APO analyst based Load Factor Average regional load factor Indirectly APO on knowledge of the aviation industry. Forecast load factor is used to forecast ASMs. Severe acute respiratory syndrome SARS (SARS) dummy variable used in the Applied fiscal year 2003 by APO Yes APO Pacific region model Global financial crisis dummy variable GFC2 Applied fiscal years 2008-2010 Yes APO used in the Pacific region model Post 9/11 dummy variable used in the Applied fiscal years 2002-2036 by Post911 Atlantic, Pacific, and Latin region Yes APO APO models Gulf wars dummy variable used in the Tension Applied fiscal years 1991 and 2003 Yes APO Atlantic region model
Load Factor Average regional load factor Historical data is calculated via RPMs / ASMs. Forecast load factor is estimated by the APO analyst based on knowledge of the aviation industry. Forecast load factor is used to forecast ASMs. Indirectly APO SARS Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) dummy variable used in the Pacific region model Applied fiscal year 2003 by APO Yes APO GFC2 Global financial crisis dummy variable used in the Pacific region model Applied fiscal years 2008-2010 Yes APO Post911 Post 9/11 dummy variable used in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Latin region models Applied fiscal years 2002-2036 by APO Yes APO Tension Gulf wars dummy variable used in the Atlantic region model Applied fiscal years 1991 and 2003 Yes APO
FY2016-36_National_Forecast_Methodology.docx