Working Answer Mark AO Notes Grade Question 1 a e.g. There is a 0% chance of rolling a B1 2 B1 for correct example B seven on a one to six fair die. It is impossible. b There is a 99% chance B1 B1 for correct example that … c There is a 75% chance B1 B1 for correct example that … d There is a 50% chance that I will throw a B1 B1 for correct example head on a fair heads/tails coin. It is certain that I will throw one or the other. 4 2 Example of a situation with equally likely B1 2 B1 for correct example B outcomes with probability of , with B1 B1 for justification using example justification. E.g. I have three counters in a bag. One red, one green and one blue. Each has the same chance of being drawn from the bag at random. There are three mutually exclusive outcomes. Each has the probability of of being drawn. 2 3 8 out of 10 B1 2 B1 for words equivalent to 80% oe B 3 out of 10 B1 B1 for words equivalent to 0.3 oe 2 No B1 2 B1 for No. B 4 The theoretical probability is predictive B1 3 B1 for good explanation not exact. 10 is a limited number of experiments and will only sometimes produce five heads 1
Question Working Answer Mark AO Notes Grade 1 a b c d e.g. There is a 0% chance of rolling a seven on a one to six fair die. It is impossible. There is a 99% chance that … There is a 75% chance that … There is a 50% chance that I will throw a head on a fair heads/tails coin. It is certain that I will throw one or the other. B1 B1 B1 B1 2 B1 for correct example B1 for correct example B1 for correct example B1 for correct example B 4 2 Example of a situation with equally likely outcomes with probability of , with justification. E.g. I have three counters in a bag. One red, one green and one blue. Each has the same chance of being drawn from the bag at random. There are three mutually exclusive outcomes. Each has the probability of of being drawn. B1 B1 2 B1 for correct example B1 for justification using example B 2 3 8 out of 10 3 out of 10 B1 B1 2 B1 for words equivalent to 80% oe B1 for words equivalent to 0.3 oe B 2 4 No The theoretical probability is predictive not exact. 10 is a limited number of experiments and will only sometimes produce five heads B1 B1 2 3 B1 for No. B1 for good explanation B 1
Foundation_Skills_Probability%20MarkScheme_AQA.docx