Level of Economic OR Severe instability or Allen,2009 stability (2) disruption is a shock to induce reform Resource availability Commitment to Tax as % of GDP Tommassi,2009 (1) Positive, or predictability, Access to capital market? sustainability and Degree of donor support, especially budget effectiveness of support expenditure management and control reforms. Andrews, 2010, Resource availability Scale of revenues from % of revenues derived from trade and nat. p.34 (2) Negative external sources and resources as % of total natural resources may How transparent the accounting for natural “Resource curse” lead to weak and resource receipts? fragmented PFM How transparent/timely the flows between governance managing entity and government accounts? Browne,2010 Over reliance on high Donor inflows as % of govt. exp., average Allen2010, donor disbursements over 5 year period. Andrews,2010 may encourage dependency C. Conditioning Factors: Social and General Governance Context General perception of Likelihood resources World Bank, Index of corruption; DFID p.49 governance status will be captured; reform Index of ease of doing business, others? Allen, 2010,p.4 progress will be slow Quist,2009 Social stability Ease of implementing Incidence of civil unrest; degree of Dressel and longer run reforms; ethnic/religious homogeneity Brumby,2009 degree of disruption likely
Level of Economic stability (2) OR Severe instability or disruption is a shock to induce reform Allen,2009 Resource availability (1) Positive, or Resource availability (2) Negative “Resource curse” Commitment to predictability, sustainability and effectiveness of expenditure management and control reforms. Scale of revenues from external sources and natural resources may lead to weak and fragmented PFM governance Over reliance on high donor disbursements may encourage dependency Tax as % of GDP Access to capital market? Degree of donor support, especially budget support % of revenues derived from trade and nat. resources as % of total How transparent the accounting for natural resource receipts? How transparent/timely the flows between managing entity and government accounts? Donor inflows as % of govt. exp., average over 5 year period. Tommassi,2009 Andrews, 2010, p.34 Browne,2010 Allen2010, Andrews,2010 C. Conditioning Factors: Social and General Governance Context General perception of governance status Likelihood resources will be captured; reform progress will be slow World Bank, Index of corruption; Index of ease of doing business, others? DFID p.49 Allen, 2010,p.4 Quist,2009 Social stability Ease of implementing longer run reforms; degree of disruption likely Incidence of civil unrest; degree of ethnic/religious homogeneity Dressel and Brumby,2009
guidelines-for-sequencing-pfm-reforms.docx