effects over a longer timeframe (within 10 to 20 years, see Section 6.3), although their effects are already beginning to be documented. The risks associated with a changing climate are likely to increase in the future due to emissions trajectories and an unavoidable lag effect where future change is locked in by past emissions. The threats that are more localised in their effects are generally rated as having a lower risk and are generally associated with direct use of the Region. Nevertheless, some risks associated with some threats remain high at local or regional scale, as is the case for pesticide run-off.9 [Photograph of bleached staghorn coral. Caption: Coral bleaching is one of the effects of increases in sea temperature] Influencing factor use Current risk level and effect Scale Threats timing Direct Climate Coastal development change Land-based run-off Region-wide Now Altered weather patterns Region-wide Sea temperature increase Now Region-wide 10+ years Ocean acidification Region-wide 10+ years Sea level rise Region-wide Now Modifying coastal habitats Region-wide Now Nutrient run-off Region-wide Sediment run-off Now Region-wide Now Outbreak of crown-of-thorns starfish Region-wide Now Illegal fishing and poaching Region-wide Incidental catch of species of conservation Now concern Region-wide Now Barriers to flow Region-wide Now Marine debris Region-wide Incompatible uses Now risk assessed for heritage only Region-wide Discarded catch Now Region-wide Now Extraction of predators Region-wide Now Extraction of particle feeders Region-wide 10+ years Altered ocean currents Local or regional Now Pesticide run-off Local or regional Disposal of dredge material Now Local or regional Now Extraction from spawning aggregations Local or regional Outbreak of disease Now Cumulative effect of many factors Local or regional Outbreak of other species Now Cumulative effect of many factors Local or regional Now Terrestrial discharge Local or regional Now Acid sulphate soils Local or regional Now Artificial light Local or regional Damage to reef structure Now Local or regional Now Damage to seafloor Local or regional Now Dredging Local or regional Now Exotic species Local or regional Extraction of herbivores Now risk assessed as ‘low’ for heritage
effects over a longer timeframe (within 10 to 20 years, see Section 6.3), although their effects are already beginning to be documented. The risks associated with a changing climate are likely to increase in the future due to emissions trajectories and an unavoidable lag effect where future change is locked in by past emissions. The threats that are more localised in their effects are generally rated as having a lower risk and are generally associated with direct use of the Region. Nevertheless, some risks associated with some threats remain high at local or regional scale, as is the case for pesticide run-off.9 [Photograph of bleached staghorn coral. Caption: Coral bleaching is one of the effects of increases in sea temperature] Scale Threats Current risk level and effect timing Influencing factor Climate change Coastal development Land-based run-off Direct use Region-wide Altered weather patterns Now Region-wide Sea temperature increase Now Region-wide Ocean acidification 10+ years Region-wide Sea level rise 10+ years Region-wide Modifying coastal habitats Now Region-wide Nutrient run-off Now Region-wide Sediment run-off Now Region-wide Outbreak of crown-of-thorns starfish Now Region-wide Illegal fishing and poaching Now Region-wide Incidental catch of species of conservation concern Now Region-wide Barriers to flow Now Region-wide Marine debris Now Region-wide Incompatible uses Now risk assessed for heritage only Region-wide Discarded catch Now Region-wide Extraction of predators Now Region-wide Extraction of particle feeders Now Region-wide Altered ocean currents 10+ years Local or regional Pesticide run-off Now Local or regional Disposal of dredge material Now Local or regional Extraction from spawning aggregations Now Local or regional Outbreak of disease Now Cumulative effect of many factors Local or regional Outbreak of other species Now Cumulative effect of many factors Local or regional Terrestrial discharge Now Local or regional Acid sulphate soils Now Local or regional Artificial light Now Local or regional Damage to reef structure Now Local or regional Damage to seafloor Now Local or regional Dredging Now Local or regional Exotic species Now Local or regional Extraction of herbivores Now risk assessed as ‘low’ for heritage
GBR_Outlook_2014_Chapter9_Risks_to_the_Regions_values.docx