2035 Economic Forecast Control 42% 29% 29% Table 6 shows the percentage of households with and without children in the PopSyn controls and from the ACS for the 2005 base year and future years. The economic forecast controls in 2005 were scaled to the shares of households by presence of children from the ACS. Note that share of households with and without children are nearly identical in 2005 for the ACS and the economic forecast because the controls were scaled to match the ACS. Table 6. Regional Percentages- Households by Presence of Children Percent of Percent of Households Households with Without Children Children 2005 ACS 34% 66% 2005 Economic 35% 65% Forecast 2010 Economic 34% 66% Forecast 2015 Economic 33% 67% Forecast 2020 Economic 32% 68% Forecast 2025 Economic 32% 68% Forecast 2030 Economic 31% 69% Forecast 2035 Economic 31% 69% Forecast The second question that needs to be answered is whether the regional controls are being adequately maintained during operation. Table 7 below compares the regional PopSyn’s control totals input to the outputs. All the input controls match the output households PopSyn’s with less than a 0.4% difference with several outputs substantially below this difference. Therefore, PopSyn is effectively maintaining the regional controls. Table 7. Regional Controls Input and Output Household Type Age of % Difference Input Householder and Output One Adult NoKids 18-44 -0.002% One Adult No Kids 45-64 -0.001% -0.012% One Adult No Kids 65 & over One Adult with Kids 18-44 0.042% 0.203% One Adult with Kids 45-64 0.383% One Adult with Kids 65 & over Two or More Adults 18-44 -0.007% No Kids Two or More Adults 45-64 -0.006% No Kids Two or More Adults 65 & over -0.010%
2035 Economic Forecast Control 42% 29% 29% Table 6 shows the percentage of households with and without children in the PopSyn controls and from the ACS for the 2005 base year and future years. The economic forecast controls in 2005 were scaled to the shares of households by presence of children from the ACS. Note that share of households with and without children are nearly identical in 2005 for the ACS and the economic forecast because the controls were scaled to match the ACS. Table 6. Regional Percentages- Households by Presence of Children Percent of Households with Children Percent of Households Without Children 2005 ACS 34% 66% 2005 Economic Forecast 35% 65% 2010 Economic Forecast 34% 66% 2015 Economic Forecast 33% 67% 2020 Economic Forecast 32% 68% 2025 Economic Forecast 32% 68% 2030 Economic Forecast 31% 69% 2035 Economic Forecast 31% 69% The second question that needs to be answered is whether the regional controls are being adequately maintained during PopSyn’s operation. Table 7 below compares the regional control totals input to the PopSyn’s outputs. All the input controls match the output households with less than a 0.4% difference with several outputs substantially below this difference. Therefore, PopSyn is effectively maintaining the regional controls. Table 7. Regional Controls Input and Output Household Type Age of Householder % Difference Input and Output One Adult NoKids 18-44 -0.002% One Adult No Kids 45-64 -0.001% One Adult No Kids 65 & over -0.012% One Adult with Kids 18-44 0.042% One Adult with Kids 45-64 0.203% One Adult with Kids 65 & over 0.383% Two or More Adults No Kids 18-44 -0.007% Two or More Adults No Kids 45-64 -0.006% Two or More Adults 65 & over -0.010%
FocusModelCalibration.docx