the exit poll by vote method, we computed the absolute difference between the exit poll for the two methods and averaged by contest. Although there were differences in projected proportions by voting method and sample, all samples showed the same order of candidate outcomes, regardless of whether they were early and absentee voters or Election Day voters. Once available, we will compare the distributions in Table 9 to the actual vote proportions among early/absentee and Election Day voters. Table 9. Results for Early/Absentee and Election Day Voters by Sample Source NEP Calibrated Absentee/ KP-only KP+NPS Calibrated Early Voters Absentee/ Absentee/ NEP Election KP-only KP+NPS Republican Candidate 1 Early Voters Early Voters Day 1 Election Day Election Day Ben Carson 1.0% 1.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.8% 0.8% Ted Cruz 18.2% 16.7% 17.0% 16.5% 17.8% 17.8% John R. Kasich 5.7% 6.1% 7.0% 9.2% 8.0% 7.0% Marco Rubio 28.5% 28.0% 29.0% 23.5% 22.1% 25.9% Donald J. Trump 46.7% 48.1% 46.0% 50.6% 51.4% 48.6% c Democratic Candidate Hillary Clinton 61.0% 70.0% 68.3% 62.7% 58.6% 65.1% Bernie Sanders 39.0% 30.0% 31.7% 37.3% 41.4% 34.9% Average Divergence from 5.14 4.04 3.41 2.63 Exit Poll
the exit poll by vote method, we computed the absolute difference between the exit poll for the two methods and averaged by contest. Although there were differences in projected proportions by voting method and sample, all samples showed the same order of candidate outcomes, regardless of whether they were early and absentee voters or Election Day voters. Once available, we will compare the distributions in Table 9 to the actual vote proportions among early/absentee and Election Day voters. Table 9. Results for Early/Absentee and Election Day Voters by Sample Source Republican Candidate NEP Absentee/ Early Voters 1 KP-only Absentee/ Early Voters Calibrated KP+NPS Absentee/ Early Voters NEP Election Day 1 KP-only Election Day Calibrated KP+NPS Election Day Ben Carson 1.0% 0.8% 1.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.8% Ted Cruz 18.2% 17.8% 16.7% 17.0% 16.5% 17.8% John R. Kasich 5.7% 7.0% 6.1% 7.0% 9.2% 8.0% Marco Rubio 28.5% 25.9% 28.0% 29.0% 23.5% 22.1% Donald J. Trump 46.7% 48.6% 48.1% 46.0% 50.6% 51.4% c Democratic Candidate Hillary Clinton 61.0% 70.0% 68.3% 62.7% 58.6% 65.1% Bernie Sanders 39.0% 30.0% 31.7% 37.3% 41.4% 34.9% Average Divergence from Exit Poll 5.14 4.04 3.41 2.63
FL_2016_Report_for_AP_PublicRelease.docx