Status of the political Impacts extent to which Effectiveness of legislative and civil Dressel and system: a) autocratic or political leadership can society oversight; Brumby,2009 democratic; b) majority exert power to Levels of accountability; party or coalition; support/enforce reform; Distribution of power between coalition c) federal or unitary (also impacts power of members; MOF to lead reform) Clear constitutional mandates for federal and state authorities. Impacts on effectiveness Clear rules for intergovernmental transfers. of accountability Degree to which these rules are followed. arrangements B. Conditioning Factors: Economic Context Growth rate Availability of resources Average 5 year g/r of GDP; Andrews, 2010 for PFM Reform; Average g/r over world average Level of political demand and confidence in reform as well as focus of PFM reform efforts. Basics More Advanced Level of Economic Stability positively Av. GDP growth in recent 2 years Andrews, 2010 stability (1) Influences the pace of, compared to past 10 years. and nature of, efforts to Av. Inflation rate in recent 2 years strengthen various compared to av. in past 10 years components of PFM : Difference in growth rate of credit Revenue Mobilization compared with nominal GDP in 2 recent Resource Allocation years compared to av. over last 10 years Expenditure and Real rate of interest in recent 2 years arrears control compared to its average over last 10 years Treasury ops. Whether in or out of an IMF program; MOF resort to cash controls; Extent of expenditure arrears.
Status of the political system: a) autocratic or democratic; b) majority party or coalition; c) federal or unitary Impacts extent to which political leadership can exert power to support/enforce reform; (also impacts power of MOF to lead reform) Impacts on effectiveness of accountability arrangements Effectiveness of legislative and civil society oversight; Levels of accountability; Distribution of power between coalition members; Clear constitutional mandates for federal and state authorities. Clear rules for intergovernmental transfers. Degree to which these rules are followed. Dressel and Brumby,2009 B. Conditioning Factors: Economic Context Growth rate Availability of resources for PFM Reform; Level of political demand and confidence in reform as well as focus of PFM reform efforts. Basics More Advanced Average 5 year g/r of GDP; Average g/r over world average Andrews, 2010 Level of Economic stability (1) Stability positively Influences the pace of, and nature of, efforts to strengthen various components of PFM : Revenue Mobilization Resource Allocation Expenditure and arrears control Treasury ops. Av. GDP growth in recent 2 years compared to past 10 years. Av. Inflation rate in recent 2 years compared to av. in past 10 years Difference in growth rate of credit compared with nominal GDP in 2 recent years compared to av. over last 10 years Real rate of interest in recent 2 years compared to its average over last 10 years Whether in or out of an IMF program; MOF resort to cash controls; Extent of expenditure arrears. Andrews, 2010
guidelines-for-sequencing-pfm-reforms.docx