Permanent Estimated number of Limited $10.26 – $27.35 per annum per reductions in additional children affected affected child cognitive ability due by persistent malnutrition x to persistent loss in lifetime incomes malnutrition associated with famine Permanent increase Estimate number of Moderate – DRC (2009-2012): $53-107 mn in out of school additional student only for Pakistan (2009-2012): $440 mn – children at different levels of economic $1.5 bn education x wage impact Syria (2011-2015): $2.18 bn – $10.7 differentials for wages for bn people with different levels of academic attainment, applied with discount rate A4.3 Example: conflict shock impacts and costs Table A4.5 Evidence from recent conflict disasters on the economic and social costs of shocks to the education system under the current approach. DR Congo Nigeria Pakistan Syria (2009-2012) (2009-2012) (2011-2015) Nature of crisis Conflict Conflict Conflict Conflict Damage and destruction of school $20 mn $4.95 mn $23.63 mn $991 mn – infrastructure $2.73 bn Damage and destruction of $4 mn $0.29 mn $4.5 mn $104 - $264 learning materials mn Replacement of lost teachers $2,100 $20,000 $115,020 $2-$6 mn Estimated loss from rise in OOSC $53-$107 $440 mn – $2.18 bn – Not available due to conflict (range) mn $1.5 bn $10.7 bn Estimated loss from education disruption (loss of teaching days $470 mn Not available $2.9 bn $1.26 bn and learning outcomes) Total cost estimate $547 mn - $5.26 mn $3.37 bn – $4.54 bn - $601 mn $4.43 bn $14.96 bn
Permanent reductions in cognitive ability due to persistent malnutrition Estimated number of additional children affected by persistent malnutrition x loss in lifetime incomes associated with famine Limited $10.26 – $27.35 per annum per affected child Permanent increase in out of school children Estimate number of additional student at different levels of education x wage differentials for wages for people with different levels of academic attainment, applied with discount rate Moderate – only for economic impact DRC (2009-2012): $53-107 mn Pakistan (2009-2012): $440 mn – $1.5 bn Syria (2011-2015): $2.18 bn – $10.7 bn A4.3 Example: conflict shock impacts and costs Table A4.5 Evidence from recent conflict disasters on the economic and social costs of shocks to the education system under the current approach. DR Congo Nigeria (2009-2012) Pakistan (2009-2012) Syria (2011-2015) Nature of crisis Conflict Conflict Conflict Conflict Damage and destruction of school infrastructure $20 mn $4.95 mn $23.63 mn $991 mn – $2.73 bn Damage and destruction of learning materials $4 mn $0.29 mn $4.5 mn $104 - $264 mn Replacement of lost teachers $2,100 $20,000 $115,020 $2-$6 mn Estimated loss from rise in OOSC due to conflict (range) $53-$107 mn Not available $440 mn – $1.5 bn $2.18 bn – $10.7 bn Estimated loss from education disruption (loss of teaching days and learning outcomes) $470 mn Not available $2.9 bn $1.26 bn Total cost estimate $547 mn - $601 mn $5.26 mn $3.37 bn – $4.43 bn $4.54 bn - $14.96 bn
ESD8-RFP-Economic-Impacts-FULL-RFP-1%20021017.docx