Armed Services Committee a few days afterwards, the commander of coalition forces, with Senator John McCain when he General John Campbell, ‘absolutely’ agreed a PR standpoint, it was a rather significant victory for the observed that ‘from significant or spectacular it was, this victory does not alter the Taliban.’ But however strategic reality of the war, which is one of stalemate. As we show below, neither side can win militarily. The Afghan army and police have no hope of wiping out the insurgency. Equally, the Taliban cannot win back Afghanistan through force of arms alone. This creates a simple and compelling logic for peace talks as the only way to end the conflict. The past decade has seen a number of initiatives by the Afghan government to reach out to the Taliban. Most were designed to co-opt Taliban commanders or persuade Taliban fighters to abandon their military campaign, rather than coherent and genuine attempts to negotiate peace. For their part, the Taliban have focused since 2006 on sustaining their military campaign in the face of growing western intervention. Nonetheless, the past five years have seen a discernible shift in Taliban strategy from one focused solely on fighting to include a diplomatic track. Thus the Taliban agreed to open a political office in Qatar, participated in occasional track-two events, engaged with a handful of governments, and participated in a sustained humanitarian dialogue. However, progress on peace talks was stymied by the Taliban refusal to negotiate with Afghan President Hamid Karzai, whose intent they distrusted, and who they considered a of the The mere ‘puppet Americans.’ election of Ashraf Ghani as Afghan President in September 2014 has provided the opportunity to push forward with peace talks. At a time when many Taliban might be mistaken about the possibility of military victory, this article examines what can be done to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table and to keep them there.
Armed Services Committee a few days afterwards, the commander of coalition forces, General John Campbell, ‘absolutely’ agreed with Senator John McCain when he observed that ‘from a PR standpoint, it was a rather significant victory for the Taliban.’ But however significant or spectacular it was, this victory does not alter the strategic reality of the war, which is one of stalemate. As we show below, neither side can win militarily. The Afghan army and police have no hope of wiping out the insurgency. Equally, the Taliban cannot win back Afghanistan through force of arms alone. This creates a simple and compelling logic for peace talks as the only way to end the conflict. The past decade has seen a number of initiatives by the Afghan government to reach out to the Taliban. Most were designed to co-opt Taliban commanders or persuade Taliban fighters to abandon their military campaign, rather than coherent and genuine attempts to negotiate peace. For their part, the Taliban have focused since 2006 on sustaining their military campaign in the face of growing western intervention. Nonetheless, the past five years have seen a discernible shift in Taliban strategy from one focused solely on fighting to include a diplomatic track. Thus the Taliban agreed to open a political office in Qatar, participated in occasional track-two events, engaged with a handful of governments, and participated in a sustained humanitarian dialogue. However, progress on peace talks was stymied by the Taliban refusal to negotiate with Afghan President Hamid Karzai, whose intent they distrusted, and who they considered a mere ‘puppet of the Americans.’ The election of Ashraf Ghani as Afghan President in September 2014 has provided the opportunity to push forward with peace talks. At a time when many Taliban might be mistaken about the possibility of military victory, this article examines what can be done to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table and to keep them there.
Farrell_Semple_Making_Peace_with_the_Taliban.docx