Figure 4: Projected Annual Deaths and Change, 2010-2061 Annual Change Deaths Change Deaths 1,800 60,000 50,000 1,500 40,000 1,200 30,000 900 20,000 600 10,000 300 0 0 Palliative Care Need/Demand The number of potential palliative care patients is based on the workforce model developed by HWNZ (figure 5). This model is based on evidence4, expert opinion and tested against current numbers of palliative patients in New Zealand. This was also discussed with the New Zealand Palliative Care Council who is doing work on palliative care need5. The assumes that 90% of people with cancer and 40% of people with chronic disease would require some level of palliative care: Figure 6 (p. 11) shows that from 2010-2061 just over half (55%) of the people that died would have required prior palliative care. It also shows that the number of deaths is projected to increase by 96% during 2010- 2061 and a similar increase in palliative care patients Figure 7 shows that from 2010 to 2026 there is approximately a 24% increase in palliative care patients Figure 8 illustrates the regional variation in the numbers of palliative Rosenwax R, McNamara, Blackmore A, Holman C, Estimating the size of a potential 4 palliative care population, The University of Western Australia; Palliative Medicine 2005, 19: 556-562 It is acknowledge that when the Palliative Care Council’s final report on the needs analysis 5 is completed it will continue to inform the development of palliative care services and its
Figure 4: Projected Annual Deaths and Change, 2010-2061 Deaths 60,000 Change Deaths Annual Change 1,800 50,000 1,500 40,000 1,200 30,000 900 20,000 600 10,000 300 0 0 Palliative Care Need/Demand The number of potential palliative care patients is based on the workforce model developed by HWNZ (figure 5). This model is based on evidence4, expert opinion and tested against current numbers of palliative patients in New Zealand. This was also discussed with the New Zealand Palliative Care Council who is doing work on palliative care need5. The assumes that 90% of people with cancer and 40% of people with chronic disease would require some level of palliative care: Figure 6 (p. 11) shows that from 2010-2061 just over half (55%) of the people that died would have required prior palliative care. It also shows that the number of deaths is projected to increase by 96% during 2010- 2061 and a similar increase in palliative care patients Figure 7 shows that from 2010 to 2026 there is approximately a 24% increase in palliative care patients Figure 8 illustrates the regional variation in the numbers of palliative 4 Rosenwax R, McNamara, Blackmore A, Holman C, Estimating the size of a potential palliative care population, The University of Western Australia; Palliative Medicine 2005, 19: 556-562 5 It is acknowledge that when the Palliative Care Council’s final report on the needs analysis is completed it will continue to inform the development of palliative care services and its
palliativecare-workforce-service-forecast.docx