Table 2 Overview of the scenarios in this chapter Global Year Organization CO2eq Share of Costs and Additional scenario of frame emissions renewable benefits description reduction energy target Special 2011 Ranges Baselines 2050: More than Four illustrative Review of Report on Panel on from 40 to 85 Gt CO2 half of 2050 scenarios: 164 Renewable Climate 2030 to per year; scenarios annual costs Energy Change (IPCC) 2050 project <1% of GDP, scenarios Sources and Scenarios: zero >173 EJ/yr, through at least and up to >400 beyond to 55 Gt. 2030 Climate (Present: 30 EJ/yr. Change Gt/year) Mitigation (SRREN) World International 450 scenario: 2035: 45% Cost: USD 18 Considers 2010 2035 Energy Energy 49% emissions of trillion aggressive Outlook reduction electricity Agency (IEA) additional for 2010 (WEO compared to generation; of 2010-2035 2010) “Current 21% of relative to Policies heat; n Accord. ’Current Scenario” biofuels Stabilization Policies’. (which shows 14% of of reductions transport Benefit: Fuel atmospheric about 30% fuel cost savings of CO2 below present USD 17.1 trillion levels) (calculated over at 450 the lifetime of ppm. implemented technologies). World 2011 IEA 2035 450 scenario: 2035: Cost: USD 180 Emphasizes Energy 41% emissions renewables bn/year that Outlook reduction achieve additional 2011 (WEO compared to 27% share compared to investments 2011) the “New overall; 46% New Policies narrow Policies of scenario for window of scenario” (or electricity period 2011-20; opportunity around 30% generation; 1.1 trillion/ year to achieve reduction biofuels additional 2°C goal compared to 13% of during present levels) transport 2035. fuel; heat Cumulative cost not during period specified 2011-2035: USD 15.2 trillion
Table 2 Overview of the scenarios in this chapter Global scenario Year of Organization CO2eq emissions reduction target Share of renewable energy Costs and benefits Additional description Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN) 2011 Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Ranges from 2030 to 2050 and beyond Baselines 2050: 40 to 85 Gt CO2 per year; Scenarios: zero to 55 Gt. (Present: 30 Gt/year) More than half of 2050 scenarios project >173 EJ/yr, up to >400 EJ/yr. Four illustrative scenarios: annual costs <1% of GDP, through at least 2030 Review of 164 scenarios World Energy Outlook 2010 (WEO 2010) 2010 International Energy Agency (IEA) 2035 450 scenario: 49% emissions reduction compared to “Current Policies Scenario” (which shows reductions about 30% below present levels) 2035: 45% of electricity generation; 21% of heat; biofuels 14% of transport fuel Cost: USD 18 trillion additional for 2010-2035 relative to ’Current Policies’. Benefit: Fuel cost savings of USD 17.1 trillion (calculated over the lifetime of implemented technologies). Considers aggressive of Accord. Stabilization of atmospheric CO2 at 450 ppm. World Energy Outlook 2011 (WEO 2011) 2011 IEA 2035 450 scenario: 41% emissions reduction compared to the “New Policies scenario” (or around 30% reduction compared to present levels) 2035: renewables achieve 27% share overall; 46% of electricity generation; biofuels 13% of transport fuel; heat not specified Cost: USD 180 bn/year additional compared to New Policies scenario for period 2011-20; 1.1 trillion/ year additional during Cumulative cost during period 2011-2035: USD 15.2 trillion Emphasizes that investments narrow window of opportunity to achieve 2°C goal 2035. frame n
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