South Orange County load of 494 MW, while the CAISO forecast was revised downward. FRONTLINES concludes that SDG&E’s inflated forecast resulted in SDG&E wrongly identifying numerous unlikely contingency events. Specifically, according to FRONTLINES, because SDG&E erroneously assumes a minimum 466 MW peak load level, the Category C overload concerns it predicts will not occur within the 10 year planning horizon, if at all. ORA agrees with FRONTLINES and notes that SDG&E’s having been less than forthcoming with contradictory 2015 peak load data (despite the numerous corrections made by SDG&E to its showing), further calls into question SDG&E’s claim that load is increasing in the South Orange County area. In addition to being disputed by SJC, FRONTLINES, and ORA, SDG&E’s forecast is at odds with that of the CAISO and the analysis performed in the development of the Screening Report, both of which were based on SDG&E’s data and models. Given the above, we find SDG&E’s 2014 forecast excessive and inaccurate. Additionally, in light of questions raised about the accuracy of SDG&E’s 2014 and 2015 forecasts, and its submission of the 2015 forecast in a time and manner that does not allow a full and thorough analysis by the opposing parties, we decline to adopt SDG&E’s 2015 need forecast at this time. Instead, we will rely on the lower need forecast developed by the Commission’s CEQA team using the same data and modeling software as SDG&E. Compliance with NERC Standards The Bulk Electrical System (BES) Exception SDGE claims the SOCRE Project is needed to provide reliable service to its South Orange County customers. According to SDG&E, the transmission system
South Orange County load of 494 MW, while the CAISO forecast was revised downward. FRONTLINES concludes that SDG&E’s inflated forecast resulted in SDG&E wrongly identifying numerous unlikely contingency events. Specifically, according to FRONTLINES, because SDG&E erroneously assumes a minimum 466 MW peak load level, the Category C overload concerns it predicts will not occur within the 10 year planning horizon, if at all. ORA agrees with FRONTLINES and notes that SDG&E’s having been less than forthcoming with contradictory 2015 peak load data (despite the numerous corrections made by SDG&E to its showing), further calls into question SDG&E’s claim that load is increasing in the South Orange County area. In addition to being disputed by SJC, FRONTLINES, and ORA, SDG&E’s forecast is at odds with that of the CAISO and the analysis performed in the development of the Screening Report, both of which were based on SDG&E’s data and models. Given the above, we find SDG&E’s 2014 forecast excessive and inaccurate. Additionally, in light of questions raised about the accuracy of SDG&E’s 2014 and 2015 forecasts, and its submission of the 2015 forecast in a time and manner that does not allow a full and thorough analysis by the opposing parties, we decline to adopt SDG&E’s 2015 need forecast at this time. Instead, we will rely on the lower need forecast developed by the Commission’s CEQA team using the same data and modeling software as SDG&E. Compliance with NERC Standards The Bulk Electrical System (BES) Exception SDGE claims the SOCRE Project is needed to provide reliable service to its South Orange County customers. According to SDG&E, the transmission system
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