The assessment of how well each meets the key criteria set for the emergency stockholding system is shown below. 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Compliance Meets the IEA Uncertain Good Good Good – obligation volume may not be available Time to secure first Good: ~ 1 1.5 Good: ~ 1 Good: ~ 1 1.5 Poor:~ 4-5 – – – stock (tickets) 1.5 Possible time to full Average: 5-10 Average: Average: ~10+ Poor 10-15 compliance if possible ~10+ years years at all Security Allows participation in Good Good Good Good collective international action (stock release) Improves domestic Poor - Average Good Good Good security Cost estimate 2016 assuming full compliance all models Estimated capital $0 $4,163 $4,148 $4,121 required (AUD millions) Estimated per cost including capital $264 $296-495 $305-496 $492-696 recovery (AUD millions) Per litre charge if on 0.5 0.6-1.0 0.6-1.0 1.0-1.4 products (AU cpl) Cost estimate 2022 assuming full compliance all models Estimated capital $0 $9,738 $9,722 $9,695 required (AUD millions) Estimated per cost including capital $573 $840-1,106 $649-1,107 $1,103-1,582 recovery (AUD millions) Per litre charge if on 1.1 1.2-2.2 1.3-2.2 2.2-3.1 products (AU cpl) Other items Flexible to meet Good (but Good Good Average changing target volume limited)
The assessment of how well each meets the key criteria set for the emergency stockholding system is shown below. 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Compliance Meets the IEA obligation Uncertain – volume may not be available Good Good Good Time to secure first stock (tickets) Good: ~ 1 – 1.5 Good: ~ 1 – 1.5 Good: ~ 1 – 1.5 Poor:~ 4-5 Possible time to full compliance Average: 5-10 if possible at all Average: ~10+ years Average: ~10+ Poor 10-15 years Security Allows participation in collective international action (stock release) Good Good Good Good Improves domestic security Poor - Average Good Good Good Cost estimate 2016 assuming full compliance all models Estimated capital required (AUD millions) $0 $4,163 $4,148 $4,121 Estimated per cost including capital recovery (AUD millions) $264 $296-495 $305-496 $492-696 Per litre charge if on products (AU cpl) 0.5 0.6-1.0 0.6-1.0 1.0-1.4 Cost estimate 2022 assuming full compliance all models Estimated capital required (AUD millions) $0 $9,738 $9,722 $9,695 Estimated per cost including capital recovery (AUD millions) $573 $840-1,106 $649-1,107 $1,103-1,582 Per litre charge if on products (AU cpl) 1.1 1.2-2.2 1.3-2.2 2.2-3.1 Other items Flexible to meet changing target Good (but volume limited) Good Good Average
nesa-identified-issues-aust-energy-oil-obligation-2012.docx