DSM Forecast: The load serving entity, NWMT’s Default Supply, develops the Demand Side Management (DSM) forecast; DSM is embedded in the regression-based energy and peak load forecast results. Load Forecast Spring 2016 – Figure 4: Balancing Authority Area Load Forecast The load forecast presented herein is the Spring 2016 forecast. This forecast was developed through linear regression with the default supply Demand Side Management (DSM) targets embedded. The following graphic displays the BAA load forecast assuming normal temperature. Average Load is calculated from the annual energy forecast. The following table, Table 1 Balancing Authority Area Load Forecast with DSM included, presents the data – displayed in the above Figure 4: Balancing Authority Area Load Forecast graphic. The estimated peak load sensitivity used in the summer and winter peak models is shown in Table 2 Estimated – Peak Load Temperature Sensitivity. Table Estimated Peak Load Temperature Sensitivity – Season MW Change per Forecast Average System Temperature Degree Winter 2.1 -3 degrees Summer 5.0 98 degrees The monthly peak load forecast is displayed in Table 3 Peak Load Forecast. A monthly shape factor was – developed and applied to the winter and summer peak load forecasts to develop the non-peak month peak forecast. This information was supplied to WECC and other entities. Table 3 Peak Load Forecast – In developing the base cases described in the of the System Study” section of this document, NWMT uses a “State Load’, as opposed to the Balancing Authority Area load referred to in the above tables and graphs. The ‘System
DSM Forecast: The load serving entity, NWMT’s Default Supply, develops the Demand Side Management (DSM) forecast; DSM is embedded in the regression-based energy and peak load forecast results. Load Forecast – Spring 2016 Figure 4: Balancing Authority Area Load Forecast The load forecast presented herein is the Spring 2016 forecast. This forecast was developed through linear regression with the default supply Demand Side Management (DSM) targets embedded. The following graphic displays the BAA load forecast assuming normal temperature. Average Load is calculated from the annual energy forecast. The following table, Table 1 – Balancing Authority Area Load Forecast with DSM included, presents the data displayed in the above Figure 4: Balancing Authority Area Load Forecast graphic. The estimated peak load sensitivity used in the summer and winter peak models is shown in Table 2 – Estimated Peak Load Temperature Sensitivity. Table – Estimated Peak Load Temperature Sensitivity Season MW Change per Degree Forecast Average System Temperature Winter 2.1 -3 degrees Summer 5.0 98 degrees The monthly peak load forecast is displayed in Table 3 – Peak Load Forecast. A monthly shape factor was developed and applied to the winter and summer peak load forecasts to develop the non-peak month peak forecast. This information was supplied to WECC and other entities. Table 3 – Peak Load Forecast In developing the base cases described in the “State of the System Study” section of this document, NWMT uses a ‘System Load’, as opposed to the Balancing Authority Area load referred to in the above tables and graphs. The
NWMT_2016-2017_Local_Area_Plan_FinalDraft.docx