CHAPTER FIVE COUNTERFACTUAL ANALYSIS Today's financial crash does not require you to abandon your march toward freedom and free markets. U.S. President Bill Clinton — Sept. 1998: Moscow, Russia This chapter manipulates the empirical trajectory presented in Chapter Four into a counterfactual example that theoretically removes the critical junctures around which I traced the empirical chain. In working toward the ultimate goal of explaining the empirical outcomes measured in the Russian case, I now attempt what political scientist James Fearon calls a fundamental tenet of the of inference.” analyst, in “logic “The explaining why some particular event E occurred, cannot help but explain why E occurred rather than some other possible outcome or outcomes.” In this case “imagined” of outcomes, the critical junctures are now assumed null and void, in so far as we can assume they and their associated effects did not play out. To recap the evidence presented in Chapter Four, there are three junctures that create the political industrial complex that propelled foreign investment in Russia’s economy and therein propelled Russia’s macroeconomic growth. First, Putin’s appointment as prime minister at the very end of the Yeltsin administration, placing him in the political forefront prior to the 2000 elections and solidifying his particular brand of leadership for Russia. Second, the Putin administration constructed a strong federal state and overturn of Yeltsin-era neoliberalism. And, third, the surge in global energy prices that resulted in a stronger domestic energy sector and increased state revenues.
CHAPTER FIVE COUNTERFACTUAL ANALYSIS Today's financial crash does not require you to abandon your march toward freedom and free markets. — U.S. President Bill Clinton Sept. 1998: Moscow, Russia This chapter manipulates the empirical trajectory presented in Chapter Four into a counterfactual example that theoretically removes the critical junctures around which I traced the empirical chain. In working toward the ultimate goal of explaining the empirical outcomes measured in the Russian case, I now attempt what political scientist James Fearon calls a fundamental tenet of the “logic of inference.” “The analyst, in explaining why some particular event E occurred, cannot help but explain why E occurred rather than some other possible outcome or outcomes.” In this “imagined” case of outcomes, the critical junctures are now assumed null and void, in so far as we can assume they and their associated effects did not play out. To recap the evidence presented in Chapter Four, there are three junctures that create the political industrial complex that propelled foreign investment in Russia’s economy and therein propelled Russia’s macroeconomic growth. First, Putin’s appointment as prime minister at the very end of the Yeltsin administration, placing him in the political forefront prior to the 2000 elections and solidifying his particular brand of leadership for Russia. Second, the Putin administration constructed a strong federal state and overturn of Yeltsin-era neoliberalism. And, third, the surge in global energy prices that resulted in a stronger domestic energy sector and increased state revenues.
Mkrttchian_Final2015.docx