Module 1: Immigrant and demographics Module 1 covers the inward and outward flows of immigrants, demographic assumptions, and how the model derives the projection of NOM under different policy scenarios (figure D.1). Figure D.1 Immigrant flows and demographics Derivation of the representative and cumulative intake of immigrants NOM flow data by visa category represent net additions (or subtractions) to the population for both temporary and permanent immigrants. These visa categories are consistent with the inquiry’s visa groupings for permanent visa holders and have been mapped to ABS migration flow data to provide a detailed decomposition of NOM (attachment 1 in this technical supplement). Age and gender distributions are applied to each visa category based on observed data. For permanent immigrants, it is assumed that the age and gender distributions of recent immigrants within the scope of the ACMID are representative of those in a given NOM intake. Age and gender distributions for temporary immigrants are based on administrative data sourced from the Department of Immigration and Border Protection (DIBP). The composition of NOM itself is calibrated on an average of NOM flows over recent years. Immigration policy controls the number of permanent visa grants through the directly Migration Programme, but does not directly control temporary migration. Therefore, incorporating temporary migrants in a model based on NOM requires assumptions about the relationship between the policy concept of the NOM (visa grants in the permanent streams) and the accounting concept of NOM (overseas arrivals less departures capturing only those who have stayed for at least 12 months over a 16 month period the —
Module 1: Immigrant and demographics Module 1 covers the inward and outward flows of immigrants, demographic assumptions, and how the model derives the projection of NOM under different policy scenarios (figure D.1). Figure D.1 Immigrant flows and demographics Derivation of the representative and cumulative intake of immigrants NOM flow data by visa category represent net additions (or subtractions) to the population for both temporary and permanent immigrants. These visa categories are consistent with the inquiry’s visa groupings for permanent visa holders and have been mapped to ABS migration flow data to provide a detailed decomposition of NOM (attachment 1 in this technical supplement). Age and gender distributions are applied to each visa category based on observed data. For permanent immigrants, it is assumed that the age and gender distributions of recent immigrants within the scope of the ACMID are representative of those in a given NOM intake. Age and gender distributions for temporary immigrants are based on administrative data sourced from the Department of Immigration and Border Protection (DIBP). The composition of NOM itself is calibrated on an average of NOM flows over recent years. Immigration policy directly controls the number of permanent visa grants through the Migration Programme, but does not directly control temporary migration. Therefore, incorporating temporary migrants in a model based on NOM requires assumptions about the relationship between the policy concept of the NOM (visa grants in the permanent streams) and the accounting concept of NOM (overseas arrivals less departures capturing only those who have stayed for at least 12 months over a 16 month period — the
migrant-intake-supplementd-1.docx