Table e-1. Model inputs Model input Value Ref Base case characteristics Age at baseline (years) 30 Sex Female Prior immunosuppression No JC virus antibody status Positive JC antibody titres 1.5 Treatment Effect Annual relative risk of disability worsening † Natalizumab 0.565 (95% CI 0.394 to 0.804) 3,15 Fingolimod 0.780 (95% CI 0.494 to 1.275) 4 Glatiramer acetate 0.938 (95% CI 0.581 1.520) 5 – PML Risk Annual probability of developing PML Natalizumab 0.0085* (95% CI 0.0079 0.0089) 16 – Fingolimod 0.000018 (95% CI 0 0.0001) 17,18 – Glatiramer acetate 0 (95% CI 0 - 0) 5 Utilities 2 †† EDSS 0 0.9248 EDSS 1-1.5 0.7614 EDSS 2-2.5 0.6741 EDSS 3-3.5 0.5643 EDSS 4-4.5 0.5643 EDSS 5-5.5 0.4906 EDSS 6-6.5 0.4453 EDSS 7-7.5 0.2686 EDSS 8-8.5 0.0076 EDSS 9-9.5 -0.2304 EDSS 10 (Death) 0 Mortality rate Age-specific mortality rate United States Life table 19 MS (EDSS mortality rate appendix e-2 –specific) * Highest reported PML risk in natalizumab-treated patients without prior immunosuppression. Compared to no drug treatment (best-supportive care) †
Table e-1. Model inputs Model input Value Ref Base case characteristics Age at baseline (years) Sex Prior immunosuppression JC virus antibody status JC antibody titres 30 Female No Positive 1.5 Treatment Effect Annual relative risk of disability worsening † Natalizumab Fingolimod Glatiramer acetate 0.565 (95% CI 0.394 to 0.804) 0.780 (95% CI 0.494 to 1.275) 0.938 (95% CI 0.581 – 1.520) 3,15 4 5 PML Risk Annual probability of developing PML Natalizumab Fingolimod Glatiramer acetate 0.0085* (95% CI 0.0079 – 0.0089) 0.000018 (95% CI 0 – 0.0001) 0 (95% CI 0 - 0) 16 17,18 5 Utilities †† EDSS 0 EDSS 1-1.5 EDSS 2-2.5 EDSS 3-3.5 EDSS 4-4.5 EDSS 5-5.5 EDSS 6-6.5 EDSS 7-7.5 EDSS 8-8.5 EDSS 9-9.5 EDSS 10 (Death) 0.9248 0.7614 0.6741 0.5643 0.5643 0.4906 0.4453 0.2686 0.0076 -0.2304 0 2 Mortality rate Age-specific mortality rate MS (EDSS –specific) mortality rate United States Life table appendix e-2 19 * Highest reported PML risk in natalizumab-treated patients without prior immunosuppression. † Compared to no drug treatment (best-supportive care)
Neurology_Supplementary_Data.docx