TABLE 5 Measures of Fit in Validation Sample Disaggregate Level (100 Validation Samples) LSOL LSGOL Summary statistic Predictions C.I. Predictions C.I. Number of observations 2547.540 2547.540 − − Number of parameters 37.000 41.000 − − | | Log-likelihood at zero -2798.759 -2798.759 -2807.853 -2789.665 -2807.853 -2789.665 | | Log-likelihood at sample shares -2696.838 -2696.838 -2706.066 -2687.609 -2706.066 -2687.609 | | Predictive Log-likelihood -2438.553 -2433.249 -2447.559 -2429.546 -2442.324 -2424.174 | | Predictive adjusted likelihood ratio index 0.082 0.083 0.081 0.083 0.082 0.084 | | Average probability of correct prediction 0.531 0.531 0.529 0.533 0.529 0.532 Aggregate Level (100 Validation Samples) LSOL LSGOL Injury categories/ Actual shares Measures of fit Predictions C.I. Predictions C.I. | | No injury 42.522799 42.309 42.364 42.247 42.371 42.300 42.428 Non-incapacitating | | 36.518347 36.595 36.492 36.559 36.629 36.452 36.531 injury Incapacitating/Fatal | | 20.958854 21.096 21.144 21.049 21.142 21.099 21.189 injury | | RMSE 0.821 0.817 0.753 0.888 0.753 0.882 − | | MAPE 2.352 2.343 2.351 2.354 2.341 2.345 −
TABLE 5 Measures of Fit in Validation Sample Disaggregate Level (100 Validation Samples) Summary statistic LSOL LSGOL Predictions C.I. Predictions C.I. Number of observations 2547.540 − 2547.540 − Number of parameters 37.000 − 41.000 − Log-likelihood at zero -2798.759 -2807.853 | -2789.665 -2798.759 -2807.853 | -2789.665 Log-likelihood at sample shares -2696.838 -2706.066 | -2687.609 -2696.838 -2706.066 | -2687.609 Predictive Log-likelihood -2438.553 -2447.559 | -2429.546 -2433.249 -2442.324 | -2424.174 Predictive adjusted likelihood ratio index 0.082 0.081 | 0.083 0.083 0.082 | 0.084 Average probability of correct prediction 0.531 0.529 | 0.533 0.531 0.529 | 0.532 Aggregate Level (100 Validation Samples) Injury categories/ Measures of fit Actual shares LSOL LSGOL Predictions C.I. Predictions C.I. No injury 42.522799 42.309 42.247 | 42.371 42.364 42.300 | 42.428 Non-incapacitating injury 36.518347 36.595 36.559 | 36.629 36.492 36.452 | 36.531 Incapacitating/Fatal injury 20.958854 21.096 21.049 | 21.142 21.144 21.099 | 21.189 RMSE − 0.821 0.753 | 0.888 0.817 0.753 | 0.882 MAPE − 2.352 2.351 | 2.354 2.343 2.341 | 2.345