Probability and Impact Matrix Threat Opportunity Likelihood Probability Very High 0.9 0.09 0.27 0.45 0.63 0.81 0.81 0.63 0.45 0.27 0.09 High 0.7 0.07 0.21 0.35 0.49 0.63 0.63 0.49 0.35 0.21 0.07 Moderate 0.5 0.05 0.15 0.25 0.35 0.45 0.45 0.35 0.25 0.15 0.05 Low 0.3 0.03 0.09 0.15 0.21 0.27 0.27 0.21 0.15 0.09 0.03 Very Low 0.1 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.09 0.07 0.05 0.03 0.01 Probability 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 Very Very Very Very Impact Low Moderate High Low Moderate High Low High Low High Decision Tree Strong 0.6 +$200M Build $36M Cost=$120M [ 36=(0.6*200+0.4*90) 120] Weak 0.4 +$90M – Decision Strong 0.6 +$120M Upgrade $46M Cost=$50M [ 46=(0.6*120+0.4*60) 50] Weak 0.4 +$60M – Decision Table Demand Decision Cost Strong Weak EMV Build $120M $200M $90M $36M Upgrade $50M $120M $60M $46M 0.6 0.4 Plan Risk Responses. Risks with Negative Consequences. Avoidance Eliminate risk. – Acceptance Do nothing. – Transference Sharing consequence or outcome. – Mitigation Reducing likelihood impact of outcome. – Risks with Positive Consequences. Exploitation Ensuring the realization of an opportunity. – Enhancement Modifying probability, consequence, drivers, or triggers to – increase likelihood of opportunity. Sharing Sharing consequence or outcome for mutual benefit. –
Probability and Impact Matrix Likelihood Probability Threat Opportunity Very High 0.9 0.09 0.27 0.45 0.63 0.81 0.81 0.63 0.45 0.27 0.09 High 0.7 0.07 0.21 0.35 0.49 0.63 0.63 0.49 0.35 0.21 0.07 Moderate 0.5 0.05 0.15 0.25 0.35 0.45 0.45 0.35 0.25 0.15 0.05 Low 0.3 0.03 0.09 0.15 0.21 0.27 0.27 0.21 0.15 0.09 0.03 Very Low 0.1 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.09 0.07 0.05 0.03 0.01 Probability 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 Impact Very Low Low Moderate High Very High Very Low Low Moderate High Very High Decision Tree Strong 0.6 +$200M Build $36M Cost=$120M [ 36=(0.6*200+0.4*90) – 120] Weak 0.4 +$90M Decision Strong 0.6 +$120M Upgrade $46M Cost=$50M [ 46=(0.6*120+0.4*60) – 50] Weak 0.4 +$60M Decision Table Demand Decision Cost Strong Weak EMV Build $120M $200M $90M $36M Upgrade $50M $120M $60M $46M 0.6 0.4 Plan Risk Responses. Risks with Negative Consequences. Avoidance – Eliminate risk. Acceptance – Do nothing. Transference – Sharing consequence or outcome. Mitigation – Reducing likelihood impact of outcome. Risks with Positive Consequences. Exploitation – Ensuring the realization of an opportunity. Enhancement – Modifying probability, consequence, drivers, or triggers to increase likelihood of opportunity. Sharing – Sharing consequence or outcome for mutual benefit.