2.6 The key findings for 2008-2023 are that the population of Newry, Mourne & Down is expected to grow by around 17%. Whilst the number of children in Newry & Mourne is expected to increase by 22%, the number in Down is only expected to increase by approximately 0.9%, compared to a projected NI increase of 4.4%. The number of working age people in Newry, Mourne & Down is expected to increase by 20.1% and 7.1% compared to the NI projected increase of 8.6%. There is also a projected increase in the number of pensioners across Newry & Mourne and Down of 30% and 27% compared to the NI average of 20%. Therefore, between 2008 and 2023, the proportion of children & those of working age in NM&D will decline slightly from 23.3% to 22.7% and 61.7% to 60.7%, whilst those of pension age will increase from 15.1% to 16.6%. These figures are based on projected pensionable age and broadly follow the trend at NI level, except NM&D has a younger age profile. However, it should be noted that between 2010 and 2020, the age at which women are eligible for the state pension will increase from 60 years to 66 years. By 2023, this will result in increasing the proportion of working age to 68.7% and decreasing the proportion of pensioners to 10.7%. Table 19 (a) - Population Projections 2008-2030 Year 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025* 2030* 1775003 1802170 1862229 1916785 1964567 2012171 NI 167105 170929 180430 189578 198005 206676 NMD* Source: - NISRA 2008-2023 population projections: http://www.nisra.gov.uk/demography/default.asp47.htm Year* 2025 & 2030 population projections based on an extrapolation of 2022-23 population annual rate of increase *. *Cluster figure is total of 2 Council figures excluding the portion of Ballyward ward which will transfer to NMD.
2.6 The key findings for 2008-2023 are that the population of Newry, Mourne & Down is expected to grow by around 17%. Whilst the number of children in Newry & Mourne is expected to increase by 22%, the number in Down is only expected to increase by approximately 0.9%, compared to a projected NI increase of 4.4%. The number of working age people in Newry, Mourne & Down is expected to increase by 20.1% and 7.1% compared to the NI projected increase of 8.6%. There is also a projected increase in the number of pensioners across Newry & Mourne and Down of 30% and 27% compared to the NI average of 20%. Therefore, between 2008 and 2023, the proportion of children & those of working age in NM&D will decline slightly from 23.3% to 22.7% and 61.7% to 60.7%, whilst those of pension age will increase from 15.1% to 16.6%. These figures are based on projected pensionable age and broadly follow the trend at NI level, except NM&D has a younger age profile. However, it should be noted that between 2010 and 2020, the age at which women are eligible for the state pension will increase from 60 years to 66 years. By 2023, this will result in increasing the proportion of working age to 68.7% and decreasing the proportion of pensioners to 10.7%. Table 19 (a) - Population Projections 2008-2030 Year 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025* 2030* NI 1775003 1802170 1862229 1916785 1964567 2012171 NMD* 167105 170929 180430 189578 198005 206676 Source: - NISRA 2008-2023 population projections: http://www.nisra.gov.uk/demography/default.asp47.htm Year* 2025 & 2030 population projections based on an extrapolation of 2022-23 population annual rate of increase *. *Cluster figure is total of 2 Council figures excluding the portion of Ballyward ward which will transfer to NMD.