Bedding delivery Bedding (bales Medium uncertainty – of wood shavings wrapped in plastic) delivered periodically on pallets to outside of sheds and then manually moved into shed lobbies by hand. Negligible likelihood Other waste - Only one visit was Low uncertainty carried out by the waste company (on 15/12/2015) to empty the recycling skip on the IP and leave it on-site empty. Infection No recent trade into the IP of live Negligible likelihood elsewhere in the birds or hatching eggs/day old Low uncertainty world: Direct chicks. contact with an infected flock or Wild bird incursion from migratory wildfowl outside Low likelihood birds-migration mostly occurs GB. Medium uncertainty before January. Weather related movements from the south (e.g., France) are unlikely in winter. Large scale weather driven migration unlikely in the high risk source tracing window. Infection Incursion via trade in contaminated Very low likelihood elsewhere in the poultry products cannot be ruled out. Medium uncertainty world: Indirect H5 LPAI has caused outbreaks in contact with an Germany, Italy, France and the infected flock or Netherlands in commercial poultry wildfowl outside GB since January 2015. H5N1 HPAI has been reported from commercial ducks in France. Virus of various H5 and H7 strains Low likelihood (among others) are likely to be Medium uncertainty circulating in wild birds across the EU. Common progenitor from recent outbreaks in Italy and the Netherlands (probably derived from a similar wild bird ancestral virus).
Bedding delivery – Bedding (bales of wood shavings wrapped in plastic) delivered periodically on pallets to outside of sheds and then manually moved into shed lobbies by hand. Other waste - Only one visit was carried out by the waste company (on 15/12/2015) to empty the recycling skip on the IP and leave it on-site empty. Medium uncertainty Negligible likelihood Low uncertainty Infection elsewhere in the world: Direct contact with an infected flock or wildfowl outside GB. No recent trade into the IP of live birds or hatching eggs/day old chicks. Wild bird incursion from migratory birds-migration mostly occurs before January. Weather related movements from the south (e.g., France) are unlikely in winter. Large scale weather driven migration unlikely in the high risk source tracing window. Negligible likelihood Low uncertainty Low likelihood Medium uncertainty Infection elsewhere in the world: Indirect contact with an infected flock or wildfowl outside GB Incursion via trade in contaminated poultry products cannot be ruled out. H5 LPAI has caused outbreaks in Germany, Italy, France and the Netherlands in commercial poultry since January 2015. H5N1 HPAI has been reported from commercial ducks in France. Virus of various H5 and H7 strains (among others) are likely to be circulating in wild birds across the EU. Common progenitor from recent outbreaks in Italy and the Netherlands (probably derived from a similar wild bird ancestral virus). Very low likelihood Medium uncertainty Low likelihood Medium uncertainty