Abstract of institutional Congressional scholars rely on legislators’ career concerns to motivate theories development and legislative behavior. Previous studies, however, pay insufficient attention to political mobility the movement of elites into and out of the public sector and between – positions within it. We propose a flexible mixed Markov model for studying political mobility that can accommodate both heterogeneity and serial dependence two common features of – longitudinal career data and apply it to an original dataset of career sequences for members of – the House of Representatives between 1849 and 1944. We identify four latent classes exhibiting distinct patterns of political mobility and show how class membership changes over time. We find that class membership is related to and partisanship, members’ occupational background regional differences and the size of the public sector. Class membership, in turn, is responsible for large differences in to stay in offices, move elsewhere or leave politics politicians’ decisions altogether. We find that these same choices are also shaped by duration in office, party competition and of Australian ballot reforms, with the effects varying by class. states’ adoption Overall, these findings illuminate the factors shaping political mobility in this formative era and with it, the nature of political recruitment and representation.
Abstract Congressional scholars rely on legislators’ career concerns to motivate theories of institutional development and legislative behavior. Previous studies, however, pay insufficient attention to political mobility – the movement of elites into and out of the public sector and between positions within it. We propose a flexible mixed Markov model for studying political mobility that can accommodate both heterogeneity and serial dependence – two common features of longitudinal career data – and apply it to an original dataset of career sequences for members of the House of Representatives between 1849 and 1944. We identify four latent classes exhibiting distinct patterns of political mobility and show how class membership changes over time. We find that class membership is related to members’ occupational background and partisanship, regional differences and the size of the public sector. Class membership, in turn, is responsible for large differences in politicians’ decisions to stay in offices, move elsewhere or leave politics altogether. We find that these same choices are also shaped by duration in office, party competition and states’ adoption of Australian ballot reforms, with the effects varying by class. Overall, these findings illuminate the factors shaping political mobility in this formative era and with it, the nature of political recruitment and representation.