Understand the components of good Red States and Blue States Have Similar polling Opinions on Many Controversial Issues Public Opinion The Gender Gap An aggregate of individual attitudes or Election-Specific Voting beliefs shared by some portion of adults Behavior Factors Private opinion becomes public opinion Party Identification when an individual takes some type of Perception of the Candidates action to express an opinion to others Issue Preferences publicly Measuring Public Opinion The History of Opinion Polls Consensus--Agreement 1800s: Straw Polls Divisive opinion--Polarizing Consensus Opinion By the 1930s modern, relatively Political Socialization accurate polling techniques were Sources developed by George Gallup, The Family and the Social Elmo Roper, and others. Environment Measuring Public Opinion (cont.) Education as a Source of Political Sampling Techniques Socialization Representative Sampling Peers and Peer Group Influence The Principle of Opinion Influence Randomness Leaders’ Media Presentation of Political A purely random sample Issues will be representative Political Socialization within the stated margin Political events can produce a long-lasting of error. The larger the impact on opinion formation. sample of the population, the impact of the Great the smaller the margin of Example: Depression on people who came of age in error. that period. Problems with Polls We call such an impact a Sampling Errors generational or a cohort effect. The difference between a effect, Political Preferences and results and the true result sample’s Voting Behavior if the entire population had been Demographic Influences interviewed. Education When can sampling errors be dangerous? Economic Status Problems with Polls Religious Influence: (cont.) Denomination Poll Questions Religious Influence: Commitment Yes/no answers are a problem if Race and Ethnicity the issue admits to shades of gray. Gender Often, people will attempt to Geography please the interviewer. Age Push Polls A Four-Cornered Ideological Grid Attempts to spread negative In this grid, the colored squares represent statements about a candidate by four different political ideologies. The posing as a polltaker. vertical choices range from cultural order Gallup Poll to cultural liberty. The horizontal choices Accuracy Record range from economic equality to Technology and economic liberty. Opinion Polls Liberals and Conservatives Differ on The Advent of Telephone Polling Spending for Safety Net and Far easier and less expensive than Environmental Issues door-to-door polling, and has Red States and Blue States become standard.
Understand the components of good polling Public Opinion An aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs shared by some portion of adults Private opinion becomes public opinion when an individual takes some type of action to express an opinion to others publicly Consensus--Agreement Divisive opinion--Polarizing Consensus Opinion Political Socialization Sources The Family and the Social Environment Education as a Source of Political Socialization Peers and Peer Group Influence Opinion Leaders’ Influence Media Presentation of Political Issues Political Socialization Political events can produce a long-lasting impact on opinion formation. Example: the impact of the Great Depression on people who came of age in that period. We call such an impact a generational effect, or a cohort effect. Political Preferences and Voting Behavior Demographic Influences Education Economic Status Religious Influence: Denomination Religious Influence: Commitment Race and Ethnicity Gender Geography Age A Four-Cornered Ideological Grid In this grid, the colored squares represent four different political ideologies. The vertical choices range from cultural order to cultural liberty. The horizontal choices range from economic equality to economic liberty. Liberals and Conservatives Differ on Spending for Safety Net and Environmental Issues Red States and Blue States Red States and Blue States Have Similar Opinions on Many Controversial Issues The Gender Gap Election-Specific Voting Behavior Factors Party Identification Perception of the Candidates Issue Preferences Measuring Public Opinion The History of Opinion Polls 1800s: Straw Polls By the 1930s modern, relatively accurate polling techniques were developed by George Gallup, Elmo Roper, and others. Measuring Public Opinion (cont.) Sampling Techniques Representative Sampling The Principle of Randomness A purely random sample will be representative within the stated margin of error. The larger the sample of the population, the smaller the margin of error. Problems with Polls Sampling Errors The difference between a sample’s results and the true result if the entire population had been interviewed. When can sampling errors be dangerous? Problems with Polls (cont.) Poll Questions Yes/no answers are a problem if the issue admits to shades of gray. Often, people will attempt to please the interviewer. Push Polls Attempts to spread negative statements about a candidate by posing as a polltaker. Gallup Poll Accuracy Record Technology and Opinion Polls The Advent of Telephone Polling Far easier and less expensive than door-to-door polling, and has become standard.