The statistics on chronic poverty and poverty dynamics The two Chronic Poverty Reports have established beyond much doubt that a significant proportion of the population of developing countries as a whole are chronically poor. If we look across the range of CPRC partner countries we find that the proportions and numbers of poor and chronically poor do vary somewhat, as do the pictures of mobility into and out of poverty (Table 2). These figures are of course not comparable: for example, they are derived over different periods of time, against different national poverty lines, some are national, some rural only; one is sub-national (South Africa). Kenya and South Africa² estimate chronic poverty over three survey waves; the rest over two. So it would be misleading to make any detailed comparisons, and this is not the purpose of including the table. Two important comments can be made, however. Wherever a serious attempt is made to study chronic poverty and poverty dynamics fairly significant figures emerge as proportions of populations in chronic poverty. And, intriguingly the ratio of escapes to entries is unfavourable in as many cases as it is favourable, suggesting that impoverishment and downward mobility is a very important process underlying the composition of any statistics on the incidence of poverty at a moment in time. Note the rare cases where data on urban poverty dynamics is available. Table 2: Chronic poverty and poverty dynamics across some CPRC partner countries (using non-comparable national poverty lines) Country (add percent percent percent of percent of percent percent survey dates below chronic rural urban escaping entering to this national poor population population poverty poverty column) poverty chronic chronic line poor poor Bangladesh 40 31 26 18 Burkina Faso 46 22 13 22 (rural) India 28 18¹ 18¹ 22¹ Rural India 23² 18² 20² Kenya 46 19 12 5 Senegal 54 46 75 31 17 30 (2006-8) S Africa 53 22 11 19 Natal) (1993-1998) S Africa 28 19 15 Natal) (1998-2004) Uganda 31 20 29 11 Sources
The statistics on chronic poverty and poverty dynamics The two Chronic Poverty Reports have established beyond much doubt that a significant proportion of the population of developing countries as a whole are chronically poor. If we look across the range of CPRC partner countries we find that the proportions and numbers of poor and chronically poor do vary somewhat, as do the pictures of mobility into and out of poverty (Table 2). These figures are of course not comparable: for example, they are derived over different periods of time, against different national poverty lines, some are national, some rural only; one is sub-national (South Africa). Kenya and South Africa² estimate chronic poverty over three survey waves; the rest over two. So it would be misleading to make any detailed comparisons, and this is not the purpose of including the table. Two important comments can be made, however. Wherever a serious attempt is made to study chronic poverty and poverty dynamics fairly significant figures emerge as proportions of populations in chronic poverty. And, intriguingly the ratio of escapes to entries is unfavourable in as many cases as it is favourable, suggesting that impoverishment and downward mobility is a very important process underlying the composition of any statistics on the incidence of poverty at a moment in time. Note the rare cases where data on urban poverty dynamics is available. Table 2: Chronic poverty and poverty dynamics across some CPRC partner countries (using non-comparable national poverty lines) Country (add survey dates to this column) percent below national poverty line percent chronic poor percent of rural population chronic poor percent of urban population chronic poor percent escaping poverty percent entering poverty Bangladesh 40 31 26 18 Burkina Faso (rural) 46 22 13 22 India 28 18¹ 18¹ 22¹ Rural India 23² 18² 20² Kenya 46 19 12 5 Senegal (2006-8) 54 46 75 31 17 30 S Africa Natal) (1993-1998) 53 22 11 19 S Africa Natal) (1998-2004) 28 19 15 Uganda 31 20 29 11 Sources