Almost The event is expected to occur in most Certain circumstances. (At least 5 times a year) The event will probably occur in most Likely circumstances. (At least twice a year) The event might (or could) occur at some time. (At Possible least once a year) The event will probably not occur. (At least once in Unlikely five years) The event may only occur in exceptional Rare circumstances TABLE 3 Risk Analysis Matrix CONSEQUENCES what is the maximum – LIKELIHOOD reasonable consequence? Catastrophic Insignificant Minor Major Moderate RATING Medium Medium High Extreme Extreme Almost Certain Low Medium Medium High Extreme Likely Low Low Medium High High Possible Low Low Low Medium High Unlikely Low Low Low Low Medium Rare
Almost Certain The event is expected to occur in most circumstances. (At least 5 times a year) Likely The event will probably occur in most circumstances. (At least twice a year) Possible The event might (or could) occur at some time. (At least once a year) Unlikely The event will probably not occur. (At least once in five years) Rare The event may only occur in exceptional circumstances TABLE 3 Risk Analysis Matrix LIKELIHOOD RATING CONSEQUENCES – what is the maximum reasonable consequence? Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic Almost Certain Medium Medium High Extreme Extreme Likely Low Medium Medium High Extreme Possible Low Low Medium High High Unlikely Low Low Low Medium High Rare Low Low Low Low Medium