APPENDIX A: THE RISK MATRIX A.1 The matrix used by the Service is on the methodology below, which includes illustrations of how scores are arrived at. It provides a picture” of where risk lies within the “heat Service. Likelihood and Consequence A.2 Values are required for likelihood and impact in to make more sense of the words and numbers used. These provide those involved in creating risk registers, with the ability to apply a rating of their risks in a more meaningful way. Use of the traffic light (RAG) system enhances the significance of the scores. Management will focus attention on risks’ and be concerned with ‘red risks in the dark amber areas for threats, and the medium blue to dark blue areas for opportunities. Likelihood Scoring Scale Level Descriptor Likelihood 1 Rare < 10%. May occur only in exceptional circumstances. 2 Unlikely 10 - 35%. The event could occur infrequently. 3 Possible 35 - 65%. The event could occur at some time. 4 Likely 65 - 90%. The event is expected to occur in most circumstances 5 Almost Certain >90%. The event will occur in most circumstances Consequence A.3 Consequence, (impact), has hitherto been a single category value that deserves to be the subject of greater scrutiny, as consequences can occur in a number of areas. Accordingly, the consequence may need moderation across those areas to understand the true value. The table on the following page will assist in providing context and texture. Having identified likelihood and consequence, the resultant risk matrix provides a map”. “heat 5 Almost Certain 5 10 15 20 25 4 Likely 4 8 12 16 20 3 Possible 3 6 9 12 15 2 Unlikely 2 4 6 8 10 1 Rare 1 2 3 4 5 LIKELIHOOD Minor Major Critical Significant 1 2 3 4 Insignificant
APPENDIX A: THE RISK MATRIX A.1 The matrix used by the Service is on the methodology below, which includes illustrations of how scores are arrived at. It provides a “heat picture” of where risk lies within the Service. Likelihood and Consequence A.2 Values are required for likelihood and impact in to make more sense of the words and numbers used. These provide those involved in creating risk registers, with the ability to apply a rating of their risks in a more meaningful way. Use of the traffic light (RAG) system enhances the significance of the scores. Management will focus attention on ‘red risks’ and be concerned with risks in the dark amber areas for threats, and the medium blue to dark blue areas for opportunities. Likelihood Scoring Scale Level Descriptor Likelihood 1 Rare < 10%. May occur only in exceptional circumstances. 2 Unlikely 10 - 35%. The event could occur infrequently. 3 Possible 35 - 65%. The event could occur at some time. 4 Likely 65 - 90%. The event is expected to occur in most circumstances 5 Almost Certain >90%. The event will occur in most circumstances Consequence A.3 Consequence, (impact), has hitherto been a single category value that deserves to be the subject of greater scrutiny, as consequences can occur in a number of areas. Accordingly, the consequence may need moderation across those areas to understand the true value. The table on the following page will assist in providing context and texture. Having identified likelihood and consequence, the resultant risk matrix provides a “heat map”. LIKELIHOOD 5 Almost Certain 5 10 15 20 25 4 Likely 4 8 12 16 20 3 Possible 3 6 9 12 15 2 Unlikely 2 4 6 8 10 1 Rare 1 2 3 4 5 Insignificant 1 Minor 2 Significant 3 Major 4 Critical