279,720 17,871 1.7 305 0.5 Songliao National analyses: estimation of total water demand and temporal water use Applying the low (high) well spacing, high (low) water intensity and the prospectivity (p) values to equation 2 in section 2.2 for all plays, we derive an estimate of projected total water use for all major shale-gas basins in China upon full development (Figure s4). Projections of total fracking water use for 7 Chinese shale-gas basins Figure s4. The differences in water demands for the different basins relate primarily to geographic size, as basins with larger prospective areas namely the Tarim, Sichuan, Junggar and – Songliao basins are likely to have more wells at full development and thus greater demand – for water. Based on the national shale-gas production goal of 30 bcm by 2020 [s3], we define high, medium, and low scenarios for nationwide shale-gas production and associated water consumption through 2020, as summarized in Table s2. Table s2. Shale-gas production and water consumption scenarios for China Scenarios Parameters Meet the planned production goal Production in 2020: 30 bcm in 2020, with medium water Medium intensity (i.e., at the historical rate of decline from 2013 to 2014, Rate of decline of water intensity: 6.5%) 6.5% Exceed the planned production Production goals in 2020: 21 bcm goal by 30% in 2020, with high water intensity (i.e., at a lower rate Rate of decline of water intensity: High of decline, 2%, than the historical 2% value assumed in the Medium Scenario) Fall below the planned production Production goals in 2020: 39 bcm Low goal by 30% in 2020, with low
Songliao 279,720 17,871 1.7 305 0.5 National analyses: estimation of total water demand and temporal water use Applying the low (high) well spacing, high (low) water intensity and the prospectivity (p) values to equation 2 in section 2.2 for all plays, we derive an estimate of projected total water use for all major shale-gas basins in China upon full development (Figure s4). Figure s4. Projections of total fracking water use for 7 Chinese shale-gas basins The differences in water demands for the different basins relate primarily to geographic size, as basins with larger prospective areas – namely the Tarim, Sichuan, Junggar and Songliao basins – are likely to have more wells at full development and thus greater demand for water. Based on the national shale-gas production goal of 30 bcm by 2020 [s3], we define high, medium, and low scenarios for nationwide shale-gas production and associated water consumption through 2020, as summarized in Table s2. Table s2. Shale-gas production and water consumption scenarios for China Scenarios Parameters Medium Meet the planned production goal in 2020, with medium water intensity (i.e., at the historical rate of decline from 2013 to 2014, 6.5%) Production in 2020: 30 bcm Rate of decline of water intensity: 6.5% High Exceed the planned production goal by 30% in 2020, with high water intensity (i.e., at a lower rate of decline, 2%, than the historical value assumed in the Medium Scenario) Production goals in 2020: 21 bcm Rate of decline of water intensity: 2% Low Fall below the planned production goal by 30% in 2020, with low Production goals in 2020: 39 bcm