Source: Afghanistan Geological Survey (2010). Table 9a: Annual Impacts on GNI of Aynak with Railway to Peshawar (assumed cost US$1.6 B): Base Case (Medium Impact) Weighted Annual Average (undiscounted) GNI Direct 178 568 598 521 – GNI Indirect 246 147 124 150 – GNI - Induced 252 472 484 442 GNI—Total with RR 675 1187 1206 1113 GNI—Total without RR 527 1185 1204 1087 5% discount $1.79/lb “Break-even” price, rate $2.35/lb 10% discount rate Table 9b: Annual Combined Impacts on GNI of Aynak and Hajigak with Railway to Mazaar-e-Sharif (assumed cost US$3.2 B): Base Case Weighted Annual Average (Undiscounted) GNI Direct 274 775 827 723 – GNI Indirect 472 359 341 367 – GNI - Induced 412 695 731 669 GNI—Total with RR 1158 1829 1899 1759 GNI—Total without RR 862 1807 1890 1699 Aynak: Average profits (% of I); 14 current price price for Aynak, 5% $1.79/lb “Break-even” discount rate $2.35/lb 10% discount rate price for Hajigak, 5% $135/tonne “Break-even” discount rate $163/tonne 10% discount rate Graph 6: Contribution of Aynak and Hajigak with Railway to GNI from 2011-2042: Direct, Indirect, and Induced Benefits in the Base Case Source: from simulations. Authors’ compilation
Source: Afghanistan Geological Survey (2010). Table 9a: Annual Impacts on GNI of Aynak with Railway to Peshawar (assumed cost US$1.6 B): Base Case (Medium Impact) Weighted Annual Average (undiscounted) GNI – Direct 178 568 598 521 GNI – Indirect 246 147 124 150 GNI - Induced 252 472 484 442 GNI—Total with RR 675 1187 1206 1113 GNI—Total without RR 527 1185 1204 1087 “Break-even” price, 5% discount rate 10% discount rate $1.79/lb $2.35/lb Table 9b: Annual Combined Impacts on GNI of Aynak and Hajigak with Railway to Mazaar-e-Sharif (assumed cost US$3.2 B): Base Case Weighted Annual Average (Undiscounted) GNI – Direct 274 775 827 723 GNI – Indirect 472 359 341 367 GNI - Induced 412 695 731 669 GNI—Total with RR 1158 1829 1899 1759 GNI—Total without RR 862 1807 1890 1699 Aynak: Average profits (% of I); current price 14 “Break-even” price for Aynak, 5% discount rate 10% discount rate $1.79/lb $2.35/lb “Break-even” price for Hajigak, 5% discount rate 10% discount rate $135/tonne $163/tonne Graph 6: Contribution of Aynak and Hajigak with Railway to GNI from 2011-2042: Direct, Indirect, and Induced Benefits in the Base Case Source: Authors’ compilation from simulations.