4: Aggregate Voters’ Perceptions of the Level of Negative Campaigning Per Party Across the Campaign in Wales (Interpolated Median) Table 2: The Effect of Negative Campaigning on Electoral Participation (Logit) Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Great England Wales Scotland Britain .058 .125 -.036 -.005 CampaignToneLabourParty (.033) (.000) (.684) (.951) CampaignToneConservativeParty .019 .059 .054 -.139 (.450) (.040) (.521) (.090) .009 .004 .118 -.047 CampaignToneLiberalDemocratsParty (.760) (.919) (.258) (.618) CampaignToneGreenParty .117 .061 .169 .094 (.000) (.043) (.099) (.293) .040 .078 .056 -.056 CampaignToneUKIndependenceParty (.081) (.002) (.439) (.439) CampaignToneSNP .023 (.753) CampaignTonePlaidCymru .118 (.243) Constant 2.245 1.924 1.610 (.000) (.000) (.000) -2LL 8287.911 6396.871 746.713 975.642 Nagelkerke R² .006 .009 .029 .010 44.292 45.282 18.336 8.966 X² (.000) (.000) (.000) % Correctly Classified 95.0 94.4 95.1 97.3 N 21120 15014 1947 3974 N.B. The model run is a logistic regression model on the original dataset. N=41837. The dependent variable is Turnout (0=No, not voted; 1=Yes, voted) and measures whether voters recalled voting on Election Day.
4: Aggregate Voters’ Perceptions of the Level of Negative Campaigning Per Party Across the Campaign in Wales (Interpolated Median) Table 2: The Effect of Negative Campaigning on Electoral Participation (Logit) Model 1 Great Britain Model 2 England Model 3 Wales Model 4 Scotland CampaignToneLabourParty .058 (.033) .125 (.000) -.036 (.684) -.005 (.951) CampaignToneConservativeParty .019 (.450) .059 (.040) .054 (.521) -.139 (.090) CampaignToneLiberalDemocratsParty .009 (.760) .004 (.919) .118 (.258) -.047 (.618) CampaignToneGreenParty .117 (.000) .061 (.043) .169 (.099) .094 (.293) CampaignToneUKIndependenceParty .040 (.081) .078 (.002) .056 (.439) -.056 (.439) CampaignToneSNP .023 (.753) CampaignTonePlaidCymru .118 (.243) Constant 2.245 (.000) 1.924 (.000) 1.610 (.000) -2LL 8287.911 6396.871 746.713 975.642 Nagelkerke R² .006 .009 .029 .010 X² 44.292 (.000) 45.282 18.336 (.000) 8.966 (.000) % Correctly Classified 95.0 94.4 95.1 97.3 N 21120 15014 1947 3974 N.B. The model run is a logistic regression model on the original dataset. N=41837. The dependent variable is Turnout (0=No, not voted; 1=Yes, voted) and measures whether voters recalled voting on Election Day.