Individual 95% CIs For Mean Based on Pooled StDev Level N Mean StDev -+---------+---------+---------+-------- 1 80 2050593 485580 (*) 2 32 1040318 118331 (-*-) 3 80 536555 87233 (-*) -+---------+---------+---------+-------- 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 Pooled StDev = 322543 Grouping Information Using Tukey Method Season N Mean Grouping 1 80 2050593 A 2 32 1040318 B 3 80 536555 C Means that do not share a letter are significantly different. Tukey 95% Simultaneous Confidence Intervals All Pairwise Comparisons among Levels of Season Individual confidence level = 98,08% Season = 1 subtracted from: Season Lower Center Upper 2 -1169609 -1010275 -850941 (-*--) 3 -1634483 -1514038 -1393593 (-*-) -1200000 -600000 0 600000 Season = 2 subtracted from: Season Lower Center Upper -------+---------+---------+---------+-- 3 -663097 -503763 -344429 (--*-) -------+---------+---------+---------+-- -1200000 -600000 0 600000 Appendix IV. Literature Review – Tourism Forecasting Table 1. Publications based on ARIMA models Reference Model type Dependent Independent Data Outcome variable(s) variable(s) with Kim & ARMAX Hotels in Price of hotel Monthly - Price, number of Uysal(1998) rooms, - events and trade -number number of 1/1991 volume directly of nights events (e.g. affected demand international conventions, seminars and exhibitions), and total trade volume of the
Individual 95% CIs For Mean Based on Pooled StDev Level N Mean StDev -+---------+---------+---------+-------- 1 80 2050593 485580 (*) 2 32 1040318 118331 (-*-) 3 80 536555 87233 (-*) -+---------+---------+---------+-------- 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 Pooled StDev = 322543 Grouping Information Using Tukey Method Season N Mean Grouping 1 80 2050593 A 2 32 1040318 B 3 80 536555 C Means that do not share a letter are significantly different. Tukey 95% Simultaneous Confidence Intervals All Pairwise Comparisons among Levels of Season Individual confidence level = 98,08% Season = 1 subtracted from: Season Lower Center Upper 2 -1169609 -1010275 -850941 (-*--) 3 -1634483 -1514038 -1393593 (-*-) -1200000 -600000 0 600000 Season = 2 subtracted from: Season Lower Center Upper -------+---------+---------+---------+-- 3 -663097 -503763 -344429 (--*-) -------+---------+---------+---------+-- -1200000 -600000 0 600000 Appendix IV. Literature Review – Tourism Forecasting Table 1. Publications based on ARIMA models Reference Model type Dependent variable(s) Independent variable(s) Data with Outcome Kim & Uysal(1998) ARMAX Hotels in -number of nights Price of hotel rooms, number of events (e.g. international conventions, seminars and exhibitions), and total trade volume of the Monthly - 1/1991 - Price, number of events and trade volume directly affected demand