Assessment of Regional Situation - Asymmetric attacks on NIMFOR + Maritime Shipping Routes - Deterrence needs B1/B52's, might not be - Impact of Piracy onto leads to poor resupply available - Loss of Osman SPOD + - Lack of full commitment by nations to NIMFOR - blocked by STE with SSMs/Aircraft - Lack of full review of situation in Theatre ++ - SSMs against ships close SLOCs - Low political commitment Support to Land Component Assessment of Opponents - Loss of initiative in air due to LCC support - KAM air forces move to STE and fight as one - Poor airspace control plan - will fratricide entity + - Poor co-ord with LCC - Chemical BM attack on LCC forces in TP - SA-10 impedes CAS Ops, preventing support to - STE attacks via PET LCC - Unexpected escalation to include STE attack - Too much effort supporting LCC, loss of control of - Wrong J2 assessment - STE uses WMD air Planning Methods Air Defence Design - Lack of LCC/MCC planners in support - AD posture too CAP based, use more QRA - Lack of preparation for casualties / body bags - Poor air defence - Poor AOPG, lack of trained planners Shortage of Resources - Poor Operations design + - Insufficient MCC carrier air assets - Spent too long on the details of the plan - Lack of NIMFOR assets if simultaneous attack Sustainment & Logistics +++++ - Fuel availability - Lack of sufficient standoff weapons/TLAM + - & vulnerable logistic footprint - Too few AAR assets - Long LOCs + Host Nation Issues - Pipeline from Osman broken + - Loss of support from TYT population - Sustainment problems, airways down Red Sea - No plan for TYT forces, must not kill/expose them - UNAKOS fuel infrastructure vulnerable Stage 4 Review of Concerns / Identification of Corrective Actions – Working with a small team including the problem owner, the themes were assessed for validity and importance before conducting a wider plenary meeting to discuss and review the concerns. Teams of planners were then tasked to review the plan and recommend correction of the plan to prevent such a failure occurring for the issues identified as critical to ensuring success. The short list of top problems identified is tabulated below, together with a list of remedial actions identified for follow up:
Assessment of Regional Situation - Asymmetric attacks on NIMFOR + - Deterrence needs B1/B52's, might not be available - Lack of full commitment by nations to NIMFOR - Lack of full review of situation in Theatre ++ - Low political commitment Assessment of Opponents - KAM air forces move to STE and fight as one entity + - Chemical BM attack on LCC forces in TP - STE attacks via PET - Unexpected escalation to include STE attack - Wrong J2 assessment - STE uses WMD Planning Methods - Lack of LCC/MCC planners in support - Lack of preparation for casualties / body bags - Poor AOPG, lack of trained planners - Poor Operations design + - Spent too long on the details of the plan Sustainment & Logistics - Fuel availability - & vulnerable logistic footprint - Long LOCs + - Pipeline from Osman broken + - Sustainment problems, airways down Red Sea - UNAKOS fuel infrastructure vulnerable Maritime Shipping Routes - Impact of Piracy onto leads to poor resupply - Loss of Osman SPOD + - blocked by STE with SSMs/Aircraft - SSMs against ships close SLOCs Support to Land Component - Loss of initiative in air due to LCC support - Poor airspace control plan - will fratricide - Poor co-ord with LCC - SA-10 impedes CAS Ops, preventing support to LCC - Too much effort supporting LCC, loss of control of air Air Defence Design - AD posture too CAP based, use more QRA - Poor air defence Shortage of Resources - Insufficient MCC carrier air assets - Lack of NIMFOR assets if simultaneous attack +++++ - Lack of sufficient standoff weapons/TLAM + - Too few AAR assets Host Nation Issues - Loss of support from TYT population - No plan for TYT forces, must not kill/expose them Stage 4 – Review of Concerns / Identification of Corrective Actions Working with a small team including the problem owner, the themes were assessed for validity and importance before conducting a wider plenary meeting to discuss and review the concerns. Teams of planners were then tasked to review the plan and recommend correction of the plan to prevent such a failure occurring for the issues identified as critical to ensuring success. The short list of top problems identified is tabulated below, together with a list of remedial actions identified for follow up: