Figure 3.1.2.1 Uncertainties in anthropogenic radiative forcing (IPCC, 2013) 3.1.2.1 What observations and modeling are required to reduce uncertainty in anthropogenic aerosol by at least a factor of 2 relative to the AR5 IPCC estimate? Question Observation Resolution Accuracy Precision time and space (95% conf) 3.1.2.1 Anthropogenic aerosol Global, Zonal, 0.2 Wm-2 Sufficient radiative forcing. Regional; for Aerosol properties Seasonal and geophysical (physical, radiative, Annual means retrievals at composition), cloud required properties, atmospheric accuracy dynamic state, radiative fluxes. 3.1.3 What is the TOA global net radiative balance, variability, and change over time, and their explanation? The warming hiatus has brought into focus the need for a rigorous understanding of global net radiative balance (90% is ocean heat storage) but challenges remain in both satellite radiation and ocean in-situ observations (Stephens 2012; 2012). Global net et al. Loeb et al., radiation is currently constrained for the decade average by ocean in-situ heat storage (ARGO), and for inter-annual variations from the satellite radiation budget (CERES). 3.1.3.1 What is the annual net radiation (1σ) and uncertainty in interannual variations to 0.1 Wm-2 (1σ)? Question Observation Resolution Accuracy Precision time and space (1σ) 3.1.3.1 TOA SW Global Annual 0.3 Wm-2 Consistent TOA LW annual net for Net flux 0.1 Wm-2 geophysical Ocean temperature profile interannual retrievals at Surface temperature desired Total solar irradiance accuracy 3.1.4 Can we resolve the 15 Wm-2 inconsistency in the global net surface/atmosphere energy balance to within less than 5 Wm-2 ? Attempts to reconcile the best estimates of surface radiative, sensible, and latent heat fluxes at the surface, or atmospheric column heating/cooling have failed to achieve consistency within better than 15 Wm-2 (Loeb 2014; 2012). This discrepancy et al., Stephens et al.,
Figure 3.1.2.1 Uncertainties in anthropogenic radiative forcing (IPCC, 2013) 3.1.2.1 What observations and modeling are required to reduce uncertainty in anthropogenic aerosol by at least a factor of 2 relative to the AR5 IPCC estimate? Question Observation Resolution time and space Accuracy (95% conf) Precision 3.1.2.1 Anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing. Aerosol properties (physical, radiative, composition), cloud properties, atmospheric dynamic state, radiative fluxes. Global, Zonal, Regional; Seasonal and Annual means 0.2 Wm-2 Sufficient for geophysical retrievals at required accuracy 3.1.3 What is the TOA global net radiative balance, variability, and change over time, and their explanation? The warming hiatus has brought into focus the need for a rigorous understanding of global net radiative balance (90% is ocean heat storage) but challenges remain in both satellite radiation and ocean in-situ observations (Stephens et al. 2012; Loeb et al., 2012). Global net radiation is currently constrained for the decade average by ocean in-situ heat storage (ARGO), and for inter-annual variations from the satellite radiation budget (CERES). 3.1.3.1 What is the annual net radiation (1σ) and uncertainty in interannual variations to 0.1 Wm-2 (1σ)? Question Observation Resolution time and space Accuracy (1σ) Precision 3.1.3.1 TOA SW TOA LW Net flux Ocean temperature profile Surface temperature Total solar irradiance Global Annual 0.3 Wm-2 annual net 0.1 Wm-2 interannual Consistent for geophysical retrievals at desired accuracy 3.1.4 Can we resolve the 15 Wm-2 inconsistency in the global net surface/atmosphere energy balance to within less than 5 Wm-2 ? Attempts to reconcile the best estimates of surface radiative, sensible, and latent heat fluxes at the surface, or atmospheric column heating/cooling have failed to achieve consistency within better than 15 Wm-2 (Loeb et al., 2014; Stephens et al., 2012). This discrepancy