Benefit / cost ratio 8.44 2.56 1.35 CONSULTING 2018 As can be seen from Table C.21, at a discount rate of 10 per cent, HIPPY shows a small, positive net present value. This supports the finding that HIPPY provides value for money. Sensitivity analysis To test the robustness of these results, sensitivity analysis was undertaken using Monte Carlo simulations (described in Box C.1). In conducting these simulations, assumptions were made regarding the underlying distributions of key parameters. The chosen distributions are shown in Table C.22. The central estimate of each of the parameters refers to the value used in the cost benefit analysis presented in section C.5.1. In all instances, triangular distributions were used in absence of definitive information relating to the shape of the distribution for each parameter. C.22 Parameter Outcome Central estimate Statistical distribution Impact of HIPPY on student Improved +5 percentage Triangular (min= -3 percentage retention rates between year 6 student retention points points, max= +20 percentage and year 12 points) Impact of HIPPY on grade Decreased -3 percentage Triangular (min= 0 percentage repetition rates grade repetition points points, max= +30 percentage points) Impact of HIPPY on likelihood of Decreased -0.5 percentage Triangular (min= -3 percentage utilisation of OOHC likelihood points points, max= +5 percentage points) Impact of HIPPY on the Increased +40 percentage Triangular (min= 0 percentage proportion of tutors that hold proportion points, max= 60 percentage certificates at the end of the points) program Impact of HIPPY on incarceration Decreased -0.25 percentage Triangular (min= 0 percentage rates rates points points, max= 2.5 percentage points) CONSULTING 2018
Benefit / cost ratio 8.44 2.56 1.35 2018 As can be seen from Table C.21, at a discount rate of 10 per cent, HIPPY shows a small, positive net present value. This supports the finding that HIPPY provides value for money. Sensitivity analysis To test the robustness of these results, sensitivity analysis was undertaken using Monte Carlo simulations (described in Box C.1). In conducting these simulations, assumptions were made regarding the underlying distributions of key parameters. The chosen distributions are shown in Table C.22. The central estimate of each of the parameters refers to the value used in the cost benefit analysis presented in section C.5.1. In all instances, triangular distributions were used in absence of definitive information relating to the shape of the distribution for each parameter. C.22 Parameter Outcome Central estimate Statistical distribution Impact of HIPPY on student retention rates between year 6 and year 12 Improved student retention +5 percentage points Triangular (min= -3 percentage points, max= +20 percentage points) Impact of HIPPY on grade repetition rates Decreased grade repetition -3 percentage points Triangular (min= 0 percentage points, max= +30 percentage points) Impact of HIPPY on likelihood of utilisation of OOHC Decreased likelihood -0.5 percentage points Triangular (min= -3 percentage points, max= +5 percentage points) Impact of HIPPY on the proportion of tutors that hold certificates at the end of the program Increased proportion +40 percentage Triangular (min= 0 percentage points, max= 60 percentage points) Impact of HIPPY on incarceration rates Decreased rates -0.25 percentage points Triangular (min= 0 percentage points, max= 2.5 percentage points) 2018 CONSULTING CONSULTING