Probative: 66 (83) 50 (99) 58 (171) 36 (62) Highly probative: 18 (83) 31 (99) 25 (171) 45 (62) Strength of prosecution’s case Weak: 51 (109)*** 24 (131)*** 28 (185) 24 (67) Probative: 41 (109) 44 (131) 59 (185) 54 (67) Highly probative: 8 (109) 33 (131) 14 (185) 22 (67) Misleading circumstantial evidence† Any non-victim eyewitness recanted† Any witness recanted crime or ID† Discrepancy b/w any description and victim’s defendant† * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 ***p<0.001 no control applied † Table 20. Bivariate Results: Nature of the Facts Available to the State, Significant Variables Controlled for Pre- and Post-DNA Resolution Erroneous Near Misses Erroneous Near Misses Nature of the Facts Variables Convictions Pre-DNA Cases Convictions Post-DNA Cases Pre-DNA Cases % (N) Post-DNA Cases %(N) %(N) %(N) False confession 10 (147) 12 (2) 19 (112) 23 (172) Forensic evidence errors (all 33 (147) 21 (28) 35 (111)*** 14 (170) cases) Forensic evidence error (only 39 (122) 25 (20) 48 (81) 21 (113) cases w/ forensics) Fingerprint Presented w/ no errors 15 (146) 11 (28) 21 (112)** 8 (168) Errors 1 (146) 7 (28) 1 (112) 1 (168) Ballistics
Probative: Highly probative: 66 (83) 18 (83) 50 (99) 31 (99) 58 (171) 25 (171) 36 (62) 45 (62) Strength of prosecution’s case Weak: Probative: Highly probative: 51 (109)*** 41 (109) 8 (109) 24 (131)*** 44 (131) 33 (131) 28 (185) 59 (185) 14 (185) 24 (67) 54 (67) 22 (67) Misleading circumstantial evidence† Any non-victim eyewitness recanted† Any witness recanted crime or ID† Discrepancy b/w any victim’s description and defendant† * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 ***p<0.001 † no control applied Table 20. Bivariate Results: Nature of the Facts Available to the State, Significant Variables Controlled for Pre- and Post-DNA Resolution Nature of the Facts Variables Erroneous Convictions Pre-DNA Cases %(N) Near Misses Pre-DNA Cases % (N) Erroneous Convictions Post-DNA Cases %(N) Near Misses Post-DNA Cases %(N) False confession 10 (147) 12 (2) 19 (112) 23 (172) Forensic evidence errors (all cases) 33 (147) 21 (28) 35 (111)*** 14 (170) Forensic evidence error (only cases w/ forensics) 39 (122) 25 (20) 48 (81) 21 (113) Fingerprint Presented w/ no errors 15 (146) 11 (28) 21 (112)** 8 (168) Errors 1 (146) 7 (28) 1 (112) 1 (168) Ballistics