Comparison of independent expert's cost escalation factors To illustrate the potential uncertainty in forecasting real material input costs, we have compared the material cost escalation forecasts derived by the consultants as shown in Table D3. Table D3 Real material input cost escalation forecasts ($ real 2012-13) 2014–15 (%) 2015–16 (%) 2016–17 (%) 2017–18 (%) 2018–19 (%) Aluminium CEG 4.2 5.8 5.0 4.2 3.6 SKM 4.69 4.88 3.09 4.42 2.97 BIS Shrapnel 1.4 5.6 3.9 11.0 -6.5 Range (low to 1.4 to 4.69 4.88 to 5.8 3.09 to 5.0 4.2 to 11.0 -6.5 to 3.6 high) Copper CEG -0.9 1.1 0.3 -0.3 -0.7 SKM -0.17 0.17 -1.15 -0.16 -1.45 BIS Shrapnel -0.9 -1.5 0.3 9.3 -8.7 Range (low to -0.9 to 0.17 -1.5 to 1.1 -1.15 to 0.3 -0.3 to 9.3 -8.7 to -0.7 high) Steel CEG 0.6 3.2 0.6 0.3 -0.1 SKM 2.84 2.45 -0.35 0.38 -1.11 BIS Shrapnel1 5.1 1.0 -0.2 8.0 -8.9 Range (low to 0.6 to 5.1 1.0 to 3.2 -0.35 to 0.6 0.3 to 8.0 -0.1 to -8.9 high) Oil
Comparison of independent expert's cost escalation factors To illustrate the potential uncertainty in forecasting real material input costs, we have compared the material cost escalation forecasts derived by the consultants as shown in Table D3. Table D3 Real material input cost escalation forecasts ($ real 2012-13) 2014–15 (%) 2015–16 (%) 2016–17 (%) 2017–18 (%) 2018–19 (%) Aluminium CEG SKM BIS Shrapnel Range (low to high) 4.2 4.69 1.4 1.4 to 4.69 5.8 4.88 5.6 4.88 to 5.8 5.0 3.09 3.9 3.09 to 5.0 4.2 4.42 11.0 4.2 to 11.0 3.6 2.97 -6.5 -6.5 to 3.6 Copper CEG SKM BIS Shrapnel Range (low to high) -0.9 -0.17 -0.9 -0.9 to 0.17 1.1 0.17 -1.5 -1.5 to 1.1 0.3 -1.15 0.3 -1.15 to 0.3 -0.3 -0.16 9.3 -0.3 to 9.3 -0.7 -1.45 -8.7 -8.7 to -0.7 Steel CEG SKM BIS Shrapnel1 Range (low to high) 0.6 2.84 5.1 0.6 to 5.1 3.2 2.45 1.0 1.0 to 3.2 0.6 -0.35 -0.2 -0.35 to 0.6 0.3 0.38 8.0 0.3 to 8.0 -0.1 -1.11 -8.9 -0.1 to -8.9 Oil