As noted earlier, the RBM figure was based largely on industry submissions, despite limitations in the data provided, given the absence of better information. Applying the government’s RBM framework, the regulatory burden was estimated as $73.87 million across the entire industry (including manufacturers, importers, wholesalers and retailers). No ongoing costs were submitted as part of the consultation process. The RBM estimate derived is relatively small compared to the size of the industry (including manufacturers, importers, wholesalers and retailers). While it was not possible to complete a full Cost Benefit Analysis for this PIR (due to the limitations on the data available at this time and provided by industry), potential monetised benefits were also analysed including an illustrative example of health benefits. That example estimated that a 0.07 percentage point drop in smoking prevalence would be equivalent to $273 million in monetised health benefits. Following an extensive review of submissions received, the available data, and academic analysis of the measure (both and post- implementation), the early evidence is that the measure is having a positive impact. The available studies are diverse, analysing a range of datasets (including the National and NSW Tracking Surveys, ASSAD data, and ITC Project data) and demographics (including adolescents, adults, and cigarette and cigar/cigarillo smokers). The major relevant datasets all show drops in national prevalence rates since 2012. For example, data from Roy Morgan Research, the ABS and AIHW relating to tobacco prevalence, as well as data relating to tobacco excise and duty clearances, and household expenditure, all show continuing declines in recent years. Dr Chipty’s modelling also estimated a 0.55 percentage point drop in smoking prevalence in Australia, over 34 months following implementation, attributable to the 2012 packaging changes. This strong result, that is understated”, is expected to grow into the future as the full effects of the 2012 “likely packaging changes are realised over the longer term. In light of all of the above, it is the conclusion of this PIR that the measure has begun to achieve its public health objectives of reducing smoking and exposure to tobacco smoke in Australia and it is expected to continue to do so into the future.
As noted earlier, the RBM figure was based largely on industry submissions, despite limitations in the data provided, given the absence of better information. Applying the government’s RBM framework, the regulatory burden was estimated as $73.87 million across the entire industry (including manufacturers, importers, wholesalers and retailers). No ongoing costs were submitted as part of the consultation process. The RBM estimate derived is relatively small compared to the size of the industry (including manufacturers, importers, wholesalers and retailers). While it was not possible to complete a full Cost Benefit Analysis for this PIR (due to the limitations on the data available at this time and provided by industry), potential monetised benefits were also analysed including an illustrative example of health benefits. That example estimated that a 0.07 percentage point drop in smoking prevalence would be equivalent to $273 million in monetised health benefits. Following an extensive review of submissions received, the available data, and academic analysis of the measure (both and post- implementation), the early evidence is that the measure is having a positive impact. The available studies are diverse, analysing a range of datasets (including the National and NSW Tracking Surveys, ASSAD data, and ITC Project data) and demographics (including adolescents, adults, and cigarette and cigar/cigarillo smokers). The major relevant datasets all show drops in national prevalence rates since 2012. For example, data from Roy Morgan Research, the ABS and AIHW relating to tobacco prevalence, as well as data relating to tobacco excise and duty clearances, and household expenditure, all show continuing declines in recent years. Dr Chipty’s modelling also estimated a 0.55 percentage point drop in smoking prevalence in Australia, over 34 months following implementation, attributable to the 2012 packaging changes. This strong result, that is “likely understated”, is expected to grow into the future as the full effects of the 2012 packaging changes are realised over the longer term. In light of all of the above, it is the conclusion of this PIR that the measure has begun to achieve its public health objectives of reducing smoking and exposure to tobacco smoke in Australia and it is expected to continue to do so into the future.