prices of lower-carbon fuels compared with other fossil fuels as gas prices are projected to rise significantly compared with black and brown coal prices AEMO NEFR (2013). Gas prices are projected to increase by approximately 42 per cent until 2020 whereas coal prices are projected to stay constant, as shown in Figure 10. Unless the carbon price increases significantly, black and brown coal will continue to have a price advantage over gas fired electricity generation. Thus the continuation of the trend of increased gas fired electricity generation appears to depend mainly on policies such as state and nationwide emissions reductions schemes and the carbon price. The expansion of gas fired electricity generation since 2008 is mainly driven by policy decisions and unless policies like the carbon price mechanism incentivise gas fired electricity sufficiently through a relatively high carbon price, increases in gas fired electricity generation may not continue. Nevertheless, gas represents approximately 30 per cent (8 GW) of all commissioned power plants between 2013 and 2016, whereas black and brown coal combined constitute less than 6 per cent (1.5 GW). Gas prices are projected to rise between today and 2030 whereas black and brown coal prices are constant and decreasing respectively Source: ACIL Tasman (2012) and BREE Renewable generation Renewable generation has increased by 34 per cent between 2000 and 2012. It is the main driver of decreasing electricity supply generation emissions intensity and in the third period, 2009 and 2012, it contributed approximately 3.2 per cent out of the total decline of electricity generation emissions intensity of 6.3 per cent. Hydro and wind are the most important sources between 2009 and 2012, as shown in Figure 37. Detailed shares for each renewable type are provided in Table 17. Renewable generation grew by 44 per cent between 2000 and 2012, supported by the LRET SRET policies Note: Lower hydro generation between 2007 and 2010 is due to drought conditions. Source: Vivid Economics based on Australian Government Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics (2013) Renewable growth was steady over the 2008 to 2011 period. Hydro growth contributed 58 per cent, wind growth 33 per cent and solar PV added a further 9 per cent. Hydro exhibits inter-year variation in response to precipitation. The contribution of PV increased steadily from 2009 Note: Yearly percentage contribution to renewable electricity growth rate. Source: Economics based on Australian Government Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics (2013).
prices of lower-carbon fuels compared with other fossil fuels as gas prices are projected to rise significantly compared with black and brown coal prices AEMO NEFR (2013). Gas prices are projected to increase by approximately 42 per cent until 2020 whereas coal prices are projected to stay constant, as shown in Figure 10. Unless the carbon price increases significantly, black and brown coal will continue to have a price advantage over gas fired electricity generation. Thus the continuation of the trend of increased gas fired electricity generation appears to depend mainly on policies such as state and nationwide emissions reductions schemes and the carbon price. The expansion of gas fired electricity generation since 2008 is mainly driven by policy decisions and unless policies like the carbon price mechanism incentivise gas fired electricity sufficiently through a relatively high carbon price, increases in gas fired electricity generation may not continue. Nevertheless, gas represents approximately 30 per cent (8 GW) of all commissioned power plants between 2013 and 2016, whereas black and brown coal combined constitute less than 6 per cent (1.5 GW). Gas prices are projected to rise between today and 2030 whereas black and brown coal prices are constant and decreasing respectively Source: ACIL Tasman (2012) and BREE Renewable generation Renewable generation has increased by 34 per cent between 2000 and 2012. It is the main driver of decreasing electricity supply generation emissions intensity and in the third period, 2009 and 2012, it contributed approximately 3.2 per cent out of the total decline of electricity generation emissions intensity of 6.3 per cent. Hydro and wind are the most important sources between 2009 and 2012, as shown in Figure 37. Detailed shares for each renewable type are provided in Table 17. Renewable generation grew by 44 per cent between 2000 and 2012, supported by the LRET SRET policies Note: Lower hydro generation between 2007 and 2010 is due to drought conditions. Source: Vivid Economics based on Australian Government Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics (2013) Renewable growth was steady over the 2008 to 2011 period. Hydro growth contributed 58 per cent, wind growth 33 per cent and solar PV added a further 9 per cent. Hydro exhibits inter-year variation in response to precipitation. The contribution of PV increased steadily from 2009 Note: Yearly percentage contribution to renewable electricity growth rate. Source: Economics based on Australian Government Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics (2013).