Scenario Two Overview of Modeling Parameters – The scenario narrative above is a largely qualitative description of a potential world for the WECC region over the next 20 years. As part of the TEPPC planning objectives the scenarios are also to be used to generate alternative transmission plans through modeling study cases with the Study Case Development Tool and the Network Expansion Model. During 2012 a team from the SPSG created quantitative modeling inputs to represent the scenarios for use in the Long-Term Planning Tool (LTPT). Those quantitative representations vary by scenario and the full detail of this work will be presented to WECC stakeholders during the first quarter of 2013 by WECC staff. Shown below are some of the key distinguishing model parameters for Scenario Two shown against the Reference Case parameters. 2032 Input Parameters Units Scenario 2 Reference Value Fuel & Carbon Costs Natural Gas $/MMBtu $6.58 $6.58 Coal $/MMBtu $1.62 $1.62 Carbon $/ton $37.11 $100.00 Capital Cost Reductions % below Geothermal 0% 10% 2012 cost % below IGCC w/ CCS 0% 40% 2012 cost % below Solar PV 31% 55% 2012 cost % below Solar Thermal 25% 45% 2012 cost % below Wind 8% 17% 2012 cost Net Energy for Load Load GWh 1,163,526 1,210,159 Policy-Driven Load Reductions GWh 0 -250,171 Policy-Driven Electrification GWh 0 +160,000
Scenario Two – Overview of Modeling Parameters The scenario narrative above is a largely qualitative description of a potential world for the WECC region over the next 20 years. As part of the TEPPC planning objectives the scenarios are also to be used to generate alternative transmission plans through modeling study cases with the Study Case Development Tool and the Network Expansion Model. During 2012 a team from the SPSG created quantitative modeling inputs to represent the scenarios for use in the Long-Term Planning Tool (LTPT). Those quantitative representations vary by scenario and the full detail of this work will be presented to WECC stakeholders during the first quarter of 2013 by WECC staff. Shown below are some of the key distinguishing model parameters for Scenario Two shown against the Reference Case parameters. Input Parameters Units 2032 Reference Value Scenario 2 Fuel & Carbon Costs Natural Gas $/MMBtu $6.58 $6.58 Coal $/MMBtu $1.62 $1.62 Carbon $/ton $37.11 $100.00 Capital Cost Reductions Geothermal % below 2012 cost 0% 10% IGCC w/ CCS % below 2012 cost 0% 40% Solar PV % below 2012 cost 31% 55% Solar Thermal % below 2012 cost 25% 45% Wind % below 2012 cost 8% 17% Net Energy for Load Load GWh 1,163,526 1,210,159 Policy-Driven Load Reductions GWh 0 -250,171 Policy-Driven Electrification GWh 0 +160,000