FUM The results of the process set out in Section 5.1 are set out below for each region except Tasmania. The confidence levels chosen for each forecasting horizon are highlighted in yellow. The results are presented in the form of the two metrics which are used in the selection criteria (refer Section 5.1.2 ) namely: Percentage Increase = ((A/B) -1 )*100 % Increase in number of TIs = A B – where A = Number of TIs for which the LOR condition is forecast for FUM with given confidence level. B = Number of TIs for which the LOR condition is forecast for FUM set to zero for the same set of PASA Runs as used in calculating A. In the tables below for percentage increase, the term means that a value cannot be calculated “NA” because the value of B is zero. It should be that some of the percentage increases are very large due to very low values of B. New South Wales Percentage Increase in forecast LOR2 conditions in NSW Region (in the six-year period) Forecasting FUM with FUM with FUM with FUM with FUM with FUM with horizon (hrs) CI_94 CI_95 CI_97 CI_98 CI_99 2 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 688% 6 200% 200% 200% 250% 250% 2,800% 9 150% 267% 100% 100% 100% 1,920% 12 267% 500% 500% 500% 500% 3,475% 24 357% 514% 813% 853% 853% 2,354% 48 NA 2,200% 3,400% 3,500% 5,900% 12,200% 72 NA NA NA NA NA NA Increase in number TIs with forecast LOR2 conditions in NSW Region (in the six-year period) Forecasting FUM with FUM with FUM with FUM with FUM with FUM with horizon (hrs) CI_94 CI_95 CI_96 CI_97 CI_99 2 0 0 0 0 1 117 6 4 4 4 5 5 168 9 3 8 6 6 6 192 12 8 15 15 15 15 278 24 25 36 65 128 128 565 48 72 88 136 140 236 488 72 676 96 96 212 252 316
FUM The results of the process set out in Section 5.1 are set out below for each region except Tasmania. The confidence levels chosen for each forecasting horizon are highlighted in yellow. The results are presented in the form of the two metrics which are used in the selection criteria (refer Section 5.1.2 ) namely: Percentage Increase = ((A/B) -1 )*100 % Increase in number of TIs = A – B where A = Number of TIs for which the LOR condition is forecast for FUM with given confidence level. B = Number of TIs for which the LOR condition is forecast for FUM set to zero for the same set of PASA Runs as used in calculating A. In the tables below for percentage increase, the term “NA” means that a value cannot be calculated because the value of B is zero. It should be that some of the percentage increases are very large due to very low values of B. New South Wales Percentage Increase in forecast LOR2 conditions in NSW Region (in the six-year period) Forecasting horizon (hrs) FUM with CI_94 FUM with CI_95 FUM with FUM with CI_97 FUM with CI_98 FUM with CI_99 2 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 688% 6 200% 200% 200% 250% 250% 2,800% 9 150% 267% 100% 100% 100% 1,920% 12 267% 500% 500% 500% 500% 3,475% 24 357% 514% 813% 853% 853% 2,354% 48 NA 2,200% 3,400% 3,500% 5,900% 12,200% 72 NA NA NA NA NA NA Increase in number TIs with forecast LOR2 conditions in NSW Region (in the six-year period) Forecasting horizon (hrs) FUM with CI_94 FUM with CI_95 FUM with CI_96 FUM with CI_97 FUM with FUM with CI_99 2 0 0 0 0 1 117 6 4 4 4 5 5 168 9 3 8 6 6 6 192 12 8 15 15 15 15 278 24 25 36 65 128 128 565 48 72 88 136 140 236 488 72 96 96 212 252 316 676