APPENDIX A: SUMMARY OF IMPACTS BY SCENARIO Technical advice topic Transport modelling Land use modelling Energy Environment and Financial analysis Socioeconomic impacts population health Scenario Compared 2046 37% more car 2.5m more 800MW of Current Current trends 70% of to 2015 base case trips jobs and 3.4m additional DALYs due of vehicle population has more people dispatchable to emissions registration, sufficient access 3 times more trips on PT Most growth generation of 5425 licensing and to services required accidents in Melbourne 96% of 2.2m jobs 81% of trips NPV of $588m continue by car, 19% by suburbs these in forecast to be in investment metro area transport, trade PT Regional needed and most and Average growth mainly for people business in towns journey time with high or is 20 minutes medium SES Annual road delay cost $8.1b Compared Electric Virtually no Assumed 51% increase in 3632 DALYs Net impact of 10% to 2046 Avenue change from similar to base GWh avoided per year improvement in base case base case case access to ~6200MW Fuel excise $706m services Annual road extra required impact of annual delay cost for No change in economic $8.2b GSP Increase in benefit use TAC revenue $6.4–8.8b of $70m additional investment needed Private 8% more car 11-15% shift in 56% increase in 3250 DALYs Net impact of 32% Drive trips household GWh avoided per improvement in locations year access to Slower CBD ~6700MW $632m
APPENDIX A: SUMMARY OF IMPACTS BY SCENARIO Technical advice topic Transport modelling Land use modelling Energy Environment and population health Financial analysis Socioeconomic impacts Scenario Compared to 2015 2046 base case 37% more car trips 3 times more trips on PT 81% of trips by car, 19% by PT Average journey time is 20 minutes Annual road delay cost $8.1b 2.5m more jobs and 3.4m more people Most growth in Melbourne suburbs Regional growth mainly in towns 800MW of additional dispatchable generation required NPV of $588m investment needed Current DALYs due to emissions of 5425 96% of these in metro area and most for people with high or medium SES Current trends of vehicle registration, licensing and accidents continue 70% of population has sufficient access to services 2.2m jobs forecast to be in transport, trade and business Compared to 2046 base case Electric Avenue Virtually no change from base case Annual road delay cost $8.2b Assumed similar to base case 51% increase in GWh ~6200MW extra required for use $6.4–8.8b additional investment needed 3632 DALYs avoided $706m annual economic benefit Net impact of per year Fuel excise impact of Increase in TAC revenue of $70m 10% improvement in access to services No change in GSP Private Drive 8% more car trips Slower CBD 11-15% shift in household locations 56% increase in GWh ~6700MW 3250 DALYs avoided $632m Net impact of per year 32% improvement in access to