The NTGRs suggested by the recommended model are 55% when assuming the Massachusetts program never existed (i.e., there was no program activity in 2016 or any years prior), and 39% when assuming the program existed through 2015 but not in 2016. 11 shows the NTGR calculations. The LightTracker team developed the NTGR using a calculation as opposed to a This means that the “modeled:modeled” “modeled:actual.” counterfactual scenario (which can only be modeled as it never actually happened) was compared to a modeled LED market share rather than the actual LED market share for Massachusetts in the data set. This allows for a more comparable calculation. For estimating the NTGR, the evaluation team presented two options for treating the program age counterfactual: Programs have never existed (Program Age is set to 0); or Programs existed through 2015 (Subtract one year from the Program Age). The NTGR including both current and past program influence (i.e., setting past programs to zero in the counterfactual scenario) is 55%; if only examining influence of the current program, and assuming that past influences would have continued even if the current program was terminated, the NTGR is 39%. Table 11: Massachusetts NTGR Calculations Counterfactual No Massachusetts No Massachusetts Calculation Term Programs Ever Program in 2016 Total Massachusetts Bulbs 19,460,804 19,460,804 2016 (A) Program $ per HH Actual (B) $11.31 $11.31 Program $ per HH $0.00 $0.00 Counterfactual (C) Program Age Actual (D) 18 18 Program Age Counterfactual 0 17 (E) LED Market Share 17.5% 21.7% Counterfactual (F) LED Market Modeled 31.8% 31.8% (G) LED Qty Modeled (H=A*G) 6,188,536 6,188,536 LED Qty Counterfactual (I= 3,405,641 4,222,994 A*F) Net LEDs Modeled (J=H-I) 2,782,895 1,965,541 Program LED Bulbs 2016 (K) 5,096,082 5,096,082
The NTGRs suggested by the recommended model are 55% when assuming the Massachusetts program never existed (i.e., there was no program activity in 2016 or any years prior), and 39% when assuming the program existed through 2015 but not in 2016. 11 shows the NTGR calculations. The LightTracker team developed the NTGR using a “modeled:modeled” calculation as opposed to a “modeled:actual.” This means that the counterfactual scenario (which can only be modeled as it never actually happened) was compared to a modeled LED market share rather than the actual LED market share for Massachusetts in the data set. This allows for a more comparable calculation. For estimating the NTGR, the evaluation team presented two options for treating the program age counterfactual: Programs have never existed (Program Age is set to 0); or Programs existed through 2015 (Subtract one year from the Program Age). The NTGR including both current and past program influence (i.e., setting past programs to zero in the counterfactual scenario) is 55%; if only examining influence of the current program, and assuming that past influences would have continued even if the current program was terminated, the NTGR is 39%. Table 11: Massachusetts NTGR Calculations Counterfactual Calculation Term No Massachusetts Programs Ever No Massachusetts Program in 2016 Total Massachusetts Bulbs 2016 (A) 19,460,804 19,460,804 Program $ per HH Actual (B) $11.31 $11.31 Program $ per HH Counterfactual (C) $0.00 $0.00 Program Age Actual (D) 18 18 Program Age Counterfactual (E) 0 17 LED Market Share Counterfactual (F) 17.5% 21.7% LED Market Modeled (G) 31.8% 31.8% LED Qty Modeled (H=A*G) 6,188,536 6,188,536 LED Qty Counterfactual (I= A*F) 3,405,641 4,222,994 Net LEDs Modeled (J=H-I) 2,782,895 1,965,541 Program LED Bulbs 2016 (K) 5,096,082 5,096,082