models (Pielke, 2002). They are simply research models designed to simulate the responses ‘forecast’ of hypothesised anthropogenic changes to weather and climate, other things being the same. These model simulations should more appropriately be referred to as process studies, not predictions. With their many limitations in their description of climate forcing and feedbacks, they are not capable of predicting climatic change with a high confidence. We simply do not know enough about all the processes of importance to climate change to include them in any quantitative forecasting system (National Research Council, 2005). Many people are grossly underestimating the complexity of interactions among the atmosphere, ocean, geosphere, and biosphere, and overstating the Earth’s accuracy of the climate models to predict the future climates. These problems are so complex that it may take many decades, or even centuries, before we have matured enough as a scientific community to make credible predictions of long term climate trends and their corresponding impacts (Cotton and Pielke, 2007). Widmann and Tett (2003) conclude that a perfect model with all forcing included will simulate only one of many possible climate ‘even scenarios consistent with the eruptions and influences outside of the Earth could be forcing’. Volcanic so large to render the forecasts unusable.
‘forecast’ models (Pielke, 2002). They are simply research models designed to simulate the responses of hypothesised anthropogenic changes to weather and climate, other things being the same. These model simulations should more appropriately be referred to as process studies, not predictions. With their many limitations in their description of climate forcing and feedbacks, they are not capable of predicting climatic change with a high confidence. We simply do not know enough about all the processes of importance to climate change to include them in any quantitative forecasting system (National Research Council, 2005). Many people are grossly underestimating the complexity of interactions among the Earth’s atmosphere, ocean, geosphere, and biosphere, and overstating the accuracy of the climate models to predict the future climates. These problems are so complex that it may take many decades, or even centuries, before we have matured enough as a scientific community to make credible predictions of long term climate trends and their corresponding impacts (Cotton and Pielke, 2007). Widmann and Tett (2003) conclude that ‘even a perfect model with all forcing included will simulate only one of many possible climate scenarios consistent with the forcing’. Volcanic eruptions and influences outside of the Earth could be so large to render the forecasts unusable.