studies based on the most severe RVF epizootics that occurred in both Kenya and Tanzania in 1997/98 and 2006/07 (Himeidan et al. 2014). The origins of these major outbreaks were the Garissa district, Kenya, and Arusha, Tanzania. Peaks in infectious vector activity were used to calibrate model output. This metric is typically quantified by epidemiologists using the entomological inoculation rate (EIR) for the vector of the system (Kelly-Hope & McKenzie 2009). The EIR of the vector was a Culex particular source of focus for the understanding of model dynamics. The motivation behind this is that is the amplifying vector that, in the model, only shows significant spikes in Culex population dynamics following flooding and a sizeable EIR value can only be the Culex result of a large population of that has become infected via transmission from a Culex substantial amount of infectious hosts. These factors are therefore indicative of an epizootic. In contrast, population surges of are less sensitive to sustained rainfall and waterlogged Aedes surfaces due to a more complex relationship with rainfall patterns, and the vertical transmission makes interpretation of EIR dynamics more complicated when compared to Culex. Results Preliminary calibration and examination of the model for severe outbreak locations Rainfall is concentrated in the west of the region towards Lake Victoria while the temperature is highest in the relatively lowland areas of Kenya including the Garissa district (see Figure 2A). A closer look at the specific study-sites of the Garissa district and Arusha in Figure 2B
studies based on the most severe RVF epizootics that occurred in both Kenya and Tanzania in 1997/98 and 2006/07 (Himeidan et al. 2014). The origins of these major outbreaks were the Garissa district, Kenya, and Arusha, Tanzania. Peaks in infectious vector activity were used to calibrate model output. This metric is typically quantified by epidemiologists using the entomological inoculation rate (EIR) for the vector of the system (Kelly-Hope & McKenzie 2009). The EIR of the Culex vector was a particular source of focus for the understanding of model dynamics. The motivation behind this is that Culex is the amplifying vector that, in the model, only shows significant spikes in population dynamics following flooding and a sizeable Culex EIR value can only be the result of a large population of Culex that has become infected via transmission from a substantial amount of infectious hosts. These factors are therefore indicative of an epizootic. In contrast, population surges of Aedes are less sensitive to sustained rainfall and waterlogged surfaces due to a more complex relationship with rainfall patterns, and the vertical transmission makes interpretation of EIR dynamics more complicated when compared to Culex. Results Preliminary calibration and examination of the model for severe outbreak locations Rainfall is concentrated in the west of the region towards Lake Victoria while the temperature is highest in the relatively lowland areas of Kenya including the Garissa district (see Figure 2A). A closer look at the specific study-sites of the Garissa district and Arusha in Figure 2B