Table : Four different scenarios in facility-based haemodialysis treatment numbers projection Base model Lower projection Higher projection 2.5% Annual 0.3% Annual 0.5% decrease based on average increase to 3.9% to 1.3% from 2016 Transplant rate rate for 2010-12 from 2016 onwards onwards 13% Proportion of care” dialysis (based on average 17% for 2013-2015 10% (from 2013 to patients rate for 2008-12) & 20% thereafter 2022) 420 Incidence rate for all ages* (in 2012) 320 500+ Annual Incidence rate change (for 45-64 yr) 1.00 0.95 1.05 Age-specific death rate Annual 10% on average increase from the Annual 10% decrease Dialysis death rate rate for 2008-12) base model from the base model 96 HD treatments in Number of HD 2013 and increasing Maintaining 96 HD Increasing 1.9% treatments 0.9 annually treatments over the annually from attended average) years 2013 Note: *per 1,000,000 population Figure : Scenario 1 the impact of facility-based haemodialysis treatments by changing – the transplant rate Figure : Scenario 2 the impact of facility-based haemodialysis treatments by changing – the proportion of self-care dialysis Figure : Scenario 3 the impact of facility-based haemodialysis treatments by changing – the annual incidence rate for those aged 45-64 years old Figure : Scenario 4 the impact of facility-based haemodialysis treatments by changing – the death rate Figure : Scenario 5 the impact of facility-based haemodialysis treatments by changing – the frequency of haemodialysis treatments
Table : Four different scenarios in facility-based haemodialysis treatment numbers projection Base model Lower projection Higher projection Transplant rate 2.5% based on average rate for 2010-12 Annual 0.3% increase to 3.9% from 2016 onwards Annual 0.5% decrease to 1.3% from 2016 onwards Proportion of dialysis patients 13% (based on average rate for 2008-12) 17% for 2013-2015 & 20% thereafter 10% (from 2013 to 2022) Incidence rate for all ages* 420 (in 2012) 320 500+ Annual Incidence rate change (for 45-64 yr) 1.00 0.95 1.05 Dialysis death rate Age-specific death rate on average rate for 2008-12) Annual 10% increase from the base model Annual 10% decrease from the base model Number of HD treatments attended 96 HD treatments in 2013 and increasing 0.9 annually average) Maintaining 96 HD treatments over the years Increasing 1.9% annually from 2013 Note: *per 1,000,000 population Figure : Scenario 1 – the impact of facility-based haemodialysis treatments by changing the transplant rate Figure : Scenario 2 – the impact of facility-based haemodialysis treatments by changing the proportion of self-care dialysis Figure : Scenario 3 – the impact of facility-based haemodialysis treatments by changing the annual incidence rate for those aged 45-64 years old Figure : Scenario 4 – the impact of facility-based haemodialysis treatments by changing the death rate Figure : Scenario 5 – the impact of facility-based haemodialysis treatments by changing the frequency of haemodialysis treatments care”