Mar-11 77 8 68 17 Apr-11 68 6 66 65 May-11 52 12 68 82 Jun-11 60 11 74 52 Jul-11 58 36 62 78 Aug-11 57 12 66 64 Sep-11 48 19 56 94 Oct-11 60 23 72 46 Nov-11 52 16 47 21 Dec-11 48 64 54 78 Jan-12 56 25 69 17 Feb-12 71 25 60 66 Mar-12 70 45 71 14 Apr-12 67 28 70 77 May-12 74 30 57 83 Jun-12 94 27 82 59 Jul-12 82 72 73 35 Aug-12 80 72 67 84 Sep-12 87 29 79 97 Oct-12 99 32 72 71 Seven Everyday Statistical Traps Treating all observed variation in a time series data sequence as special cause Treating things that happen as special cause “shouldn’t” lines to a time series data sequence. Fitting inappropriate “trend” What part of you understand? “NEVER!” don’t Unnecessary obsession with and incorrect application of the Normal distribution How often did I mention it? Choosing cutoffs for and average arbitrary “above” average “below” The process WILL tell you Improving processes through the use of arbitrary numerical goals and standards Goal = of “Fact life” Is it a be nice to or a attain this, we “would achieve” target (arbitrary) “We don’t don’t target (fact-of-life)? survive” the from the goal common or special “Is ‘gap’ cause?” Using or average “rolling” “moving” Rolling invalidates many commonly used statistical techniques and displays lines to a time series data sequence. Fitting inappropriate “trend” Part 4: Main points “Those Darn Humans!” John QBQ! Powerful! [ABC model is on page 9] Miller’s –
Mar-11 77 8 68 17 Apr-11 68 6 66 65 May-11 52 12 68 82 Jun-11 60 11 74 52 Jul-11 58 36 62 78 Aug-11 57 12 66 64 Sep-11 48 19 56 94 Oct-11 60 23 72 46 Nov-11 52 16 47 21 Dec-11 48 64 54 78 Jan-12 56 25 69 17 Feb-12 71 25 60 66 Mar-12 70 45 71 14 Apr-12 67 28 70 77 May-12 74 30 57 83 Jun-12 94 27 82 59 Jul-12 82 72 73 35 Aug-12 80 72 67 84 Sep-12 87 29 79 97 Oct-12 99 32 72 71 Seven Everyday Statistical Traps Treating all observed variation in a time series data sequence as special cause Treating things that “shouldn’t” happen as special cause Fitting inappropriate “trend” lines to a time series data sequence. What part of “NEVER!” don’t you understand? Unnecessary obsession with and incorrect application of the Normal distribution How often did I mention it? Choosing arbitrary cutoffs for “above” average and “below” average The process WILL tell you Improving processes through the use of arbitrary numerical goals and standards Goal = “Fact of life” Is it a “would be nice to achieve” target (arbitrary) or a “We don’t attain this, we don’t survive” target (fact-of-life)? “Is the ‘gap’ from the goal common or special cause?” Using “rolling” or “moving” average Rolling invalidates many commonly used statistical techniques and displays Fitting inappropriate “trend” lines to a time series data sequence. Part 4: “Those Darn Humans!” Main points John Miller’s QBQ! – Powerful! [ABC model is on page 9]