There are many individual learning models which can be used to model learning based on experience, including the simple heuristic model (Harley, 1981), the average return model (Herrnstein, 1970) and the weighted average return model (March, 1996). For simplicity, the model used in our analysis is individual learning based on the model which specifies the probability of making a simple heuristic choice as a function of the payoffs obtained by making the choice in the past. In this model, the probability Pix(t) of choice being made by individual at time period is x i t the ratio between individual accumulated payoff of choice and the i’s x individual’s total payoff earned until time period In the travel behaviour context, the payoff t-1. can be in the form of reduced travel time or cost. However, in this study, payoff is represented by the earning that an individual receives after making a choice in the laboratory experiment. The rule can be represented in this equation: (2) where is probability of choice (;), which is the number of weeks of the bus Pix(t) x being used by individual (;) at time period and is individual earning i t Eix(r) i’s received from using bus for week(s) at time period (). is the set of individuals x r S and is the number of individuals in set N S. The social learning models, and are based on those of confirmation conformity, McElreath (2005). The model is based on the idea that an individual is confirmation practicing confirmation in learning from other individuals, which means that the individual maintains their previous behaviour when the target also maintains their own past behaviour. Otherwise, the individuals rely only upon their own judgement. The model is basically a combination of individual learning and social learning. As seen in Equation 3, the first term is the individual learning term and second term is
There are many individual learning models which can be used to model learning based on experience, including the simple heuristic model (Harley, 1981), the average return model (Herrnstein, 1970) and the weighted average return model (March, 1996). For simplicity, the individual learning model used in our analysis is based on the simple heuristic model which specifies the probability of making a choice as a function of the payoffs obtained by making the choice in the past. In this model, the probability Pix(t) of choice x being made by individual i at time period t is the ratio between individual i’s accumulated payoff of choice x and the individual’s total payoff earned until time period t-1. In the travel behaviour context, the payoff can be in the form of reduced travel time or cost. However, in this study, payoff is represented by the earning that an individual receives after making a choice in the laboratory experiment. The rule can be represented in this equation: (2) where Pix(t) is probability of choice x (;), which is the number of weeks of the bus being used by individual i (;) at time period t and Eix(r) is individual i’s earning received from using bus for x week(s) at time period r (). S is the set of individuals and N is the number of individuals in set S. The social learning models, confirmation and conformity, are based on those of McElreath (2005). The confirmation model is based on the idea that an individual is practicing confirmation in learning from other individuals, which means that the individual maintains their previous behaviour when the target also maintains their own past behaviour. Otherwise, the individuals rely only upon their own judgement. The model is basically a combination of individual learning and social learning. As seen in Equation 3, the first term is the individual learning term and second term is