中国的高货币化现象一直是国内各界争论不休的热点问题之一,但现有研究从理论和经验上都无法给出令人满意的解释.本文尝试从微观货币需求角度,对我国的高货币化之谜给出新的解释.研究结果表明:(1)我国微观货币需求表现出明显的规模不经济,相比于其他国家,我国货币需求规模弹性明显偏高,且规模越小的企业受到的融资约束越严重,导致其货币需求规模弹性也越大;(2)我国货币需求存在显著的非对称性卡甘效应,且通货膨胀率越高,卡甘效应越显著.上述实证结果意味着,金融市场与制度的不成熟,加之近年来,特别是亚洲金融危机之后相对大多数发展中国家较低的通胀率,使得信贷驱动的经济增长并没有引起超高的通货膨胀,是造成我国高货币化的重要原因.It is still a puzzle on the issue of the high level of China' s monetarization. In this paper,we have,from the perspective of micro demand for money, tried a reconsideration for the China' s Riddle. The results of our study demonstrate that economies of scale in money demand do not exist, that scale elasticity is significant greater than other countries, and that small firms exhibit larger scale elasticity than big firms. Cagan effect in money demand exists and demonstrates obvious asymmetry in that the stronger is Cagan effect, the higher the inflation rate is. We could conclude from above results that faultiness of financial market, system and relative low stable inflation, are the main sources of the China' s Riddle.
货币需求 卡甘效应 通货膨胀