本文依据农户供给行为理论和价格预期理论建立粮食主产区早籼稻和混合麦两个主要粮食品种的粮农供给行为模型,采用幼稚性与适应性两种农户价格预期方式模拟了最低收购价影响粮食供给的途径和主产区粮农在最低收购价政策下的供给行为.实证结果表明:政府每年公布的最低收购价格是影响主产区农户粮食供给的主要因素之一;最低收购价格通过引导粮农的价格预期从而对他们的粮食供给行为起导向作用.近年国家稳步提高粮食最低收购价水平,对有效保护粮农利益、调动农民粮食生产积极性,保证重点粮食品种的市场供给起到重要作用.同时,粮食主产区农户小规模分散式的供给行为对粮价信号的放大作用在最低收购价政策制定与执行的过程中应被予以足够重视.The thesis creates models about farmers' supply behavior of two major varieties as early indiea rice and hybrid wheat in major grain - producing areas based on farmers ' supply behavior and price expectation theory. Using naive and adaptive prices expectations, the model simulates the approach by which the minimum purchase prices affect grain supply and the farmers' supply behavior in major grain - producing areas under the minimum purchase price policy. The empirical results show that: The minimum purchase price which is announced by the government every year has a significant positive impact on farmers, grain supply behavior in major grain - producing areas; the minimum purchase price guides farmers' grain supply behavior by affecting their price expectations. The steady raise of minimum grain purchase prices in recent years plays an important role to protect famers' interests effectively. At the same time, the amplification effect on grain - prices signal by distributed and small - scale supply behavior of farmers in major grain - producing areas should be paid sufficient attention during formulation and implementation of minimum purchase price policy.
粮食收购市场价格 最低收购价政策 农户供给反应