We develop a minimalist compartmental model to analyze the impact of mobility restrictions in Italy during the Covid-19 outbreak. Our findings show that early lockdowns shifts the epidemic in time while, beyond a critical value of the lockdown strength, the epidemic restarts after lifting the restrictions. We investigate the effects of different lockdown scenarios and exit mechanisms by accounting for two fundamental sources of heterogeneity within the model: geography and demography. We consider Italian Regions as separate administrative entities, in which social interactions between age cohorts occur. Due to the sparsity of the  mobility matrix,  epidemics tend to develop independently in different regions . Finally , we show how disregarding the specific structure of social contacts could lead to severe underestimation of post-lockdown effects, while specific age cohort based measures can sustain the mitigation of rebound effects. Our model is general, and it highlights the effects of key parameters on non-pharmaceutical mitigation mechanisms for  epidemics.
We develop a minimalist compartmental model to study the impact of mobility restrictions in Italy during the Covid-19 outbreak. We show that an early lockdown shifts the epidemic in time , while that beyond a critical value of the lockdown strength, the epidemic tend to restart after lifting the restrictions. As a consequence, specific mitigation strategies must be introduced. We characterize the relative importance of different broad strategies by accounting for two fundamental sources of heterogeneity , i.e. geography and demography. First, we consider Italian regions as separate administrative entities, in which social interactions between age classs occur. Due to the sparsity of the inter-regional mobility matrix, once started the epidemics tend to develop independently across areas, justifying the adoption of solutions specific to individual regions or to clusters of regions. Second , we show that social contacts between age classes play a fundamental role and that measures which take into account the age structure of the population can provide a significant contribution to mitigate the rebound effects. Our model is general, and while it does not analyze specific mitigation strategies, it highlights the relevance of some key parameters on non-pharmaceutical mitigation mechanisms for the epidemics.
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Our findings show that early lockdowns
We show that an early lockdown
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restarts
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We investigate the effects of different lockdown scenarios and exit mechanisms
As a consequence, specific mitigation strategies must be introduced. We characterize the relative importance of different broad strategies
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within the model:
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We consider Italian Regions
First, we consider Italian regions
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in different regions . Finally
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how disregarding the specific structure of social contacts could lead to severe underestimation of post-lockdown effects, while specific age cohort based measures can sustain the mitigation of
that social contacts between age classes play a fundamental role and that measures which take into account the age structure of the population can provide a significant contribution to mitigate the
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it highlights the effects of
while it does not analyze specific mitigation strategies, it highlights the relevance of some
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