The original method was that a group of analysts would generate simulation games for policy makers. The methods combine known factsabout the future , such as demographics, geography , military, political,  industrial information, and mineral reserves, with key driving forces identified by considering social, technical, economic, environmental, and political ( STEEP ) trends. In business applications, that sole emphasis on understanding the behavior of opponents was reduced (shifting more toward a game against nature) . At Royal Dutch / Shell for example, scenario planning was viewed as changing mindsets about the exogenous part of the world , prior to formulating specific strategies. Scenario planning may involve aspects of systems thinking, specifically the recognition that many factors may combine in complex ways to create sometime surprising futures (due to non-linear feedback loops). The method also allows the inclusion of factors that are difficult to formalize, such as novel insights about the future, deep shifts in values,  unprecedented regulations or inventions. Systems thinking used in conjunction with scenario planning leads to plausible scenario storylines because the causal relationship between factors can be demonstrated. In these caseswhen scenario planning is integrated with a systems thinking approach to scenario development, it is sometimes referred to as dynamic scenarios . Another challenge of scenario-building is that "predictors are part of the social context about which they are trying to make a prediction and may influence that context in the process". As a consequence, societal predictions can become self-destructing. For example, a scenario in which a large percentage of a population will become HIV infected based on existing trends may cause more people to avoid risky behavior and thus reduce the HIV infection rate, invalidating the forecast (which might have remained correct if it had not been publicly known). Or, a prediction that cybersecurity will become a major issue may cause organizations to implement more security cybersecurity measures, thus limiting the issue. Principle Crafting scenarios These combinations and permutations of fact and related social changes are called "scenarios". The scenarios usually include plausible, but unexpectedly important  situations and problems that exist in some small form in the present day. Any particular scenario is unlikely. However, future studies analysts select scenario features so they are both possible and uncomfortable. Scenario planning helps policy-makers and firms anticipate change, prepare a responses, and create more robust strategies.
In the most common application of the method, analysts generate simulation games for policy makers. The method combines known facts , such as demographics, geography and mineral reserves, with military, political, and industrial information, and key driving forces identified by considering social, technical, economic, environmental, and political ( "STEEP" ) trends. In business applications, the emphasis on understanding the behavior of opponents has been reduced while more attention is now paid to changes in the natural environment . At Royal Dutch Shell for example, scenario planning has been described as changing mindsets about the exogenous part of the world prior to formulating specific strategies. Scenario planning may involve aspects of systems thinking, specifically the recognition that many factors may combine in complex ways to create sometimes surprising futures (due to non-linear feedback loops). The method also allows the inclusion of factors that are difficult to formalize, such as novel insights about the future, deep shifts in values, and unprecedented regulations or inventions. Systems thinking used in conjunction with scenario planning leads to plausible scenario storylines because the causal relationship between factors can be demonstrated. These cases, in which scenario planning is integrated with a systems thinking approach to scenario development, are sometimes referred to as "dynamic scenarios" . A challenge and a strength of scenario-building is that "predictors are part of the social context about which they are trying to make a prediction and may influence that context in the process". As a consequence, societal predictions can become self-destructing. For example, a scenario in which a large percentage of a population will become HIV infected based on existing trends may cause more people to avoid risky behavior and thus reduce the HIV infection rate, invalidating the forecast (which might have remained correct if it had not been publicly known). Or, a prediction that cybersecurity will become a major issue may cause organizations to implement more security cybersecurity measures, thus limiting the issue. Principle Crafting scenarios Combinations and permutations of fact and related social changes are called "scenarios". Scenarios usually include plausible, but unexpectedly important , situations and problems that exist in some nascent form in the present day. Any particular scenario is unlikely. However, future studies analysts select scenario features so they are both possible and uncomfortable. Scenario planning helps policy-makers and firms anticipate change, prepare a responses, and create more robust strategies.
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The original method was that a group of analysts would
In the most common application of the method, analysts
R
methods combine known factsabout the future
method combines known facts
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and mineral reserves, with
A
and
D
mineral reserves, with
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STEEP
"STEEP"
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was reduced (shifting more toward a game against nature)
has been reduced while more attention is now paid to changes in the natural environment
D
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was viewed
has been described
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sometimes
A
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dynamic scenarios
"dynamic scenarios"
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A challenge and a strength
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Combinations
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Scenarios
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small
nascent