The unprecedented cessation of human activities during the COVID-19 pandemic has affected global energy use and CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use and cement production . Here we show that the decrease in global fossil CO2 emissions during the first quarter of 2020 was of 5.8\% (542 Mt CO2 with a 20\% 1- {\sigma} uncertainty) . Unlike other emerging estimates , ours show the temporal dynamics of emissions based on actual emissions data from power generation (for 29 countries) and industry (for 73 countries), on near real time activity data for road transportation (for 132 countries ), aviation and maritime transportation , and on heating degree days for commercial and residential sectors emissions (for 206 countries). These dynamic estimates cover all of the human induced CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production. The largest share of COVID-related decreases in emissions are due to decreases in industry (157.9 Mt CO2, -7.1\%compared to 2019), followed by road transportation (145.7 Mt CO2, -8.3\% ), power generation (131.6 Mt CO2, -3.8 \%), residential (47.8 Mt CO2, -3.6 \%), fishing and maritime transport (35.5 Mt CO2, -13.3\%)and aviation (33.4 Mt CO2, -8.0 \%). Regionally, decreases in emissions from China were the largest and earliest ( -10.3 \%), followed by Europe (EU-27 & UK) ( -4.3 \%) and the U.S. ( -4.2 \%). Relative decreases of regional CO2 emissions are consistent with regional nitrogen oxides concentrations observed by satellites and ground-based networks . Despite the unprecedented decreases in CO2 emissions and comparable decreases in economic activities, we monitored decreases in the carbon intensity (Emission per unit of GDP) in China (3.5\%), the U. S. (4.5\%) and Europe (5.4\%) over the first quarter, suggesting that carbon-intensive activities have been disproportionally impacted .
The considerable cessation of human activities during the COVID-19 pandemic has affected global energy use and CO2 emissions . Here we show the unprecedented decrease in global fossil CO2 emissions from January to April 2020 was of 7.8\% (938 Mt CO2 with a +6.8\% of 2- {\sigma} uncertainty) when compared with the period last year. In addition other emerging estimates of COVID impacts based on monthly energy supply or estimated parameters, this study contributes to another step that constructed the near-real-time daily CO2 emission inventories based on activity from power generation (for 29 countries) , industry (for 73 countries), road transportation (for 406 cities ), aviation and maritime transportation and commercial and residential sectors emissions (for 206 countries). The estimates distinguished the decline of CO2 due to COVID-19 from the daily, weekly and seasonal variations as well as the holiday events. The COVID-related decreases in CO2 emissions in road transportation (340.4 Mt CO2, -15.5\%), power (292.5 Mt CO2, -6.4\% compared to 2019), industry (136.2 Mt CO2, -4.4 \%), aviation (92.8 Mt CO2, -28.9 \%), residential (43.4 Mt CO2, -2.7\%), and international shipping (35.9 Mt CO2, -15 \%). Regionally, decreases in China were the largest and earliest ( 234.5 Mt CO2,-6.9 \%), followed by Europe (EU-27 & UK) ( 138.3 Mt CO2, -12.0 \%) and the U.S. ( 162.4 Mt CO2, -9.5 \%). The declines of CO2 are consistent with regional nitrogen oxides concentrations observed by satellites and ground-based networks , but the calculated signal of emissions decreases (about 1Gt CO2) will have little impacts (less than 0.13ppm by April 30, 2020) on the overserved global CO2 concertation. However, with observed fast CO2 recovery in China and partial re-opening globally, our findings suggest the longer-term effects on CO2 emissions are unknown and should be carefully monitored using multiple measures .
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