the confusion arises here because the bather is not asked if the puppy he is holding is a male, but rather if either is a male. if the puppies are labeled (a and b), each has a 50% chance of being male independently. this independence is restricted when at least a or b is male. now, if a is "not" male, b "must" be male, and vice versa. this restriction is introduced by the way the question is structured and is easily overlookedmisleading people to the erroneous answer of 50%. see boy or girl paradox for solution details.