in spring 2018, an el niño event disrupted southern africa's annual rainfall. the first effect of this disruption was a delayed sowing date, which was pushed back from late october to early november. in november, a report by the united nations office for the coordination of humanitarian affairs (ocha) reported an 80 percent likelihood of the el niño event continuing until december; it also noted that 9.6 million people in southern africa were severely food-insecure as of the start of the 2019 lean season.