leading up to the election, polling in the state indicated a consistent lead (from 5-11% depending on agency) for a coalition of the cdu and the fdp over the spd-green share. in general, high german unemployment and the unpopularity of the national spd and the hartz iv reforms appeared to have taken a toll. polls did indicate that spd state leader steinbrück was personally more popular than cdu state leader jürgen rüttgers, though.