the u.s. fiscal position changed dramatically for the worse during the bush years. cbo projected in its january 2001 baseline that the u.s. would have a total of $5.6 trillion in annual "surpluses" over the 2002-2011 decade, assuming the laws in place during the clinton era continued and the economy performed as expected. however, the actual "deficits" during those years ended up being $6.1 trillion, a negative swing of $11.7 trillion. two recessions, two wars, and tax cuts were the primary drivers of the differences.