i'll leave that to you to experiment with but take a look at this tracking signal so look what's going on here, see how it's peaking at certain points, it's peaking right here, huge swing right here, there's another peak right here. and it starts to kind of climb this way again what is going on with this tracking signal? well, something is fundamentally changing in the underlying process when these peaks are happening. and it turns out that what is in fact changing is, these are the points where we have summer mileage. these are summer driving milage, the miles per gallon figure is going up in the summer and during vacation because we're taking family trips at this time so the car milage is having a dramatic shift and then here where this is starting to climb right here, this represents a subtle long term shift in the car's performance tires, air pressure low, maintenance issues, the car is fundamentally starting to change it's behavior right along here but these peaks right here, these represent basically highway milage, basically times you take in the car in long trips and as you change the alpha value these things will start to shift