before we start this morning i'd just like to make one brief announcement er one of my colleagues has asked me to announce er a lecture to be given on thursday at five fifteen, that is er directly after the second systems lecture of the week, erm on the title of the transition from totalitarianism to democracy, changes, challenges and opportunities in the former soviet union  and it will be given by  the baroness  of queensbury  erm and that's er at fife fifteen, one four one in this er in this building.