Title:
First-grade cognitive abilities as long-term predictors of reading comprehension and disability status.

Abstract:
In a sample of 195 first graders selected for poor reading performance, the authors explored four cognitive predictors of later reading comprehension and reading disability (RD) status. In fall of first grade, the authors measured the children's phonological processing, rapid automatized naming (RAN), oral language comprehension, and nonverbal reasoning. Throughout first grade, they also modeled the students' reading progress by means of weekly Word Identification Fluency (WIF) tests to derive December and May intercepts. The authors assessed their reading comprehension in the spring of Grades 1-5. With the four cognitive variables and the WIF December intercept as predictors, 50.3% of the variance in fifth-grade reading comprehension was explained: 52.1% of this 50.3% was unique to the cognitive variables, 13.1% to the WIF December intercept, and 34.8% was shared. All five predictors were statistically significant. The same four cognitive variables with the May (rather than December) WIF intercept produced a model that explained 62.1% of the variance. Of this amount, the cognitive variables and May WIF intercept accounted for 34.5% and 27.7%, respectively; they shared 37.8%. All predictors in this model were statistically significant except RAN. Logistic regression analyses indicated that the accuracy with which the cognitive variables predicted end-of-fifth-grade RD status was 73.9%. The May WIF intercept contributed reliably to this prediction; the December WIF intercept did not. Results are discussed in terms of a role for cognitive abilities in identifying, classifying, and instructing students with severe reading problems.