Title:
Assessment of stakeholder perceptions in water infrastructure projects using system-of-systems and binary probit analyses: a case study.

Abstract:
Globally, water management is evolving toward integrating participatory processes for decision-making to increase the sustainability of the decision outcome. Information about the perceptions and concerns of stakeholders needs to be readily available to those involved in the decision-making process early in the planning stage to assist in developing viable alternatives that may be implementable with limited public opposition and engender general consensus among stakeholders. The current literature does not identify an appropriate means to incorporate stakeholder views early in the preliminary planning stages without requiring relatively large time commitments or the physical presence of the key stakeholders for meetings and discussions. This study develops and demonstrates a decision-support framework that incorporates the system-of-systems school of thought with binary probit analysis to aid in efficient participatory processes by providing insight regarding the stakeholders' demographics and select behavioral characteristics in a decision-making process. The methodology first frames the water system as a system-of-systems, an approach that inherently pinpoints the necessity for diverse stakeholder involvement and maps the stakeholders in the system's hierarchy. Then, binary probit analyses are used to quantify the effect of stakeholder characteristics on the likelihood that (1) they perceive or do not perceive a need for new capital-intensive water infrastructure, and (2) they support or oppose new capital-intensive water infrastructure. A water system decision in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta serves as a case study to demonstrate the methodology. Data regarding stakeholder beliefs and perceptions were collected via a web-based survey deployed throughout Southern and Central California The study results indicate that individuals between 18 and 25 years, persons living solely with their spouse, persons associated with environmental stakeholder groups, and individuals who follow the news on local water issues have an increased likelihood of public opposition to new water infrastructure in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. These groups would be those targeted to mitigate public opposition by measures such as attempting to promote further discussion, educational outreach, and incorporating incentives such as increasing jobs or incorporating ecosystem rehabilitation efforts around the area impacted by the project.