Title:
Use of monthly collected milk yields for the detection of the emergence of the 2007 French BTV epizootic.

Abstract:
Two culicoides-borne diseases, Bluetongue (BTV) and Schmallenberg, have emerged in the European cattle population since 2006. Other diseases transmitted by these vectors could emerge. This justifies the development of syndromic surveillance programs whereby one or several indicators would be routinely monitored for the early detection of emerging diseases. The aim of this study was to evaluate milk yield from milk recording in dairy cattle as an indicator to be included in an emerging disease surveillance system. It was hypothesized that emergences would result in episodes of low milk production clustered in space and time. The 2007 BTV epizootic in France was used as a case study. Because it had already emerged in neighbouring countries, the disease emergence was expected and notification was mandatory. Herd-test-day milk productions were predicted for the entire country for 2006 and 2007 from herd historical data using linear mixed models. The differences between observed and predicted milk productions were averaged per week and per municipality and used as input for a space-time prospective scan statistic. Log likelihood ratios (LLR) associated with clusters were used to define alarms. The threshold chosen was a trade-off between detection timeliness and the number of false alarms per week. The first four BTV notifications occurred on the 12th (two notifications), 13th and 27th of July 2007. The 12th of July was considered to be the date of emergence. Alarms occurring before the 1st of March 2007 were considered to be false alarms. Using an LLR of 50, there were an average of 1.7 false alarms per week and the BTV emergence was detected seven weeks after emergence. Using an LLR of 100, there were an average of 0.8 false alarms per week and the BTV emergence was detected 9 weeks after emergence. Detection may have been delayed because of a discontinuation of milk recording between mid-July and mid-August. The first cluster with an LLR>100 located in the emergence area was further investigated. A difference between observed and predicted production of >1 kg/cow/day was observed around the time of emergence. However, a difference of equal magnitude was observed during the year preceding the outbreak. Milk production predicted from herd history alone did not allow the detection of the 2007 BTV emergence in France. Further research should be conducted on improving the prediction of test-day milk yield and on combining it with other indicators based on routinely collected data.