It missed us by 9 days

Alas this hinted at, but didn't address the important questions.
How likely are we to be hit in any given 11-year sun cycle? Yes the sun throws out lots of these but the Earth is very small and very far away as far as the sun is concerned. A bit like pointing a laser pointer randomly into the sky and just happening to point it at a bird. So what is the chance? 1 in a million per 11 years, one in a thousand, one in a hundred?
How MUCH of the earth would be affected? How long does the CME last, is only one side of the plant going to get blasted or does it last long enough for the other side to rotate into frame?
The problem is that if the grid goes down for more than a day society collapses. No power, no water, no food distribution, no communication leads to mass lawlessness.