It missed us by 9 days

You cannot predict a Carrington event as it is very very very rare, so much so that we have never observed one since we have started modern monitoring of the Sun.      You need #1. for Earth to be in the path of the Storm which in itself is very rare and #2 the storm MUST be in a configuration where multiple Solar Storms are launched at Earth one after the other each as powerful or more so, this is very rare and only a few times have Satellites picked up on such a configuration and they were all far weaker than the Carrington event.    The reason the Carrington event was so powerful was the each phase of he Solar Storm further weakened the ionosphere, including damage when the ionosphere was pulled away from earth and then re-bounded, causing more damage on the re-bound than by the first impact of the storm.    After multiple storms, in short period of time, the final few rounds caused the well documented event.   This is an extremely rare event and we have never seen one blasted out from the Sun either directed at earth or in any other direction.   The likelihood of such an event is impossible to predict until it occurs again and even then you need some sort of baseline so multiple such events need to occur and yet we may not see one again in hundreds of years.