This report represents the views of the authors only and does not necessarily reflect the
position of StatoilHydro ASAThe theme of this report is the regional socio-economic consequences of an
extensive oil and gas development in the Barents Sea. The regional focus area
includes Finnmark County and Murmansk Oblast. The introductory chapter
explains the purpose of the study and the way the work has been done. The
next two chapters provide a detailed account of the region and its basic
characteristics. The general finding is that the region strongly needs a new
stimulus to growth, but that it is badly prepared for receiving a coming oil and
gas boom.
The following chapter gives a brief overview of the oil and gas sectors in
Norway and Russia and introduces the baseline scenario, which indicates the
expected scale and scope of future petroleum activity in the Barents Sea. After
this three scenarios are presented. They all have 2030 as their time horizon.
The first scenario depicts the frontier - the Arctic vanguard – which is a
flourishing region by 2030. The second scenario tells the story of the Arctic
outsider; a region becoming more and more marginalized. The third scenario
foresees a shifting balance, where oil and gas development mainly takes place
on the Russian side of the border, leaving the whole region in the shadow of
the new energy superpower.
The final chapter sums up the key challenges of the region, discusses the
scenarios, and highlights the basic preconditions for an extensive oil and gas
development to benefit the region