Title:
Investigation of noise-induced instabilities in quantitative biological spectroscopy and its implications for noninvasive glucose monitoring.

Abstract:
Over the past decade, optical spectroscopy has been employed in combination with multivariate chemometric models to investigate a wide variety of diseases and pathological conditions, primarily due to its excellent chemical specificity and lack of sample preparation requirements. Despite promising results in several proof-of-concept studies, its translation to the clinical setting has often been hindered by inadequate accuracy of the conventional spectroscopic models. To address this issue and the possibility of curved (nonlinear) effects in the relationship between the concentrations of the analyte of interest and the mixture spectra (due to fluctuations in sample and environmental conditions), support vector machine-based least-squares nonlinear regression (LS-SVR) has been recently proposed. In this paper, we investigate the robustness of this methodology to noise-induced instabilities and present an analytical formula for estimating modeling precision as a function of measurement noise and model parameters. This formalism can be readily used to evaluate uncertainty in information extracted from spectroscopic measurements, particularly important for rapid-acquisition biomedical applications. Subsequently, using field data (Raman spectra) acquired from a glucose clamping study on an animal model subject, we perform the first systematic investigation of the relative effect of additive interference components (namely, noise in prediction spectra, calibration spectra, and calibration concentrations) on the prediction error of nonlinear spectroscopic models. Our results show that the LS-SVR method gives more accurate results and is substantially more robust to additive noise when compared with conventional regression methods such as partial least-squares regression (PLS), when careful selection of the LS-SVR model parameters are performed. We anticipate that these results will be useful for uncertainty estimation in similar biomedical applications where the precision of measurements and its response to noise in the data set is as important, if not more so, than the generic accuracy level.