Title:
Factors associated with bovine tuberculosis confirmation rates in suspect lesions found in cattle at routine slaughter in Great Britain, 2003-2008.

Abstract:
Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is one of the most complex and intractable animal health problems facing the British cattle industry today. The inspection of carcasses from cattle sent to slaughter is part of routine surveillance for bTB in Great Britain (GB). Tissue with suspect lesions from cattle from herds previously considered uninfected with bTB is sent to the Animal Health and Veterinary Laboratories Agency (AHVLA) for culture and histopathological examination for Mycobacterium bovis infection. In this study, risk factors for confirmation of infection in suspect bTB lesions found at routine slaughter of cattle from officially bTB-free (OTF) herds in GB were investigated. The study sample included the first record of a suspect lesion in a bovine from any OTF herd identified during post-mortem inspection between 2003 and 2008. There were 3663 submissions from 151 slaughterhouses of which 2470 (67.4%) were confirmed as culture positive for M. bovis. Logistic regression analysis with a random intercept for slaughterhouse was used to investigate relationships between bTB confirmation and animal and herd-level risk factors. Slaughterhouse of post mortem and the following factors related to bTB prevalence were significant predictors of confirmation probability: region of farm of origin of the animal, the testing interval for routine field surveillance for bTB on the farm, number of reactors in the last bTB incident on the farm within the last 4 years, if applicable, the animal's date of birth and the year of animal's slaughter. The modelled predicted population averaged probabilities for confirmation varied from 0.14 to 0.90 between slaughterhouses. Differences in the detection of cattle with bTB between British slaughterhouses warrant further study.