Title:
Development and application of a new grey dynamic hierarchy analysis system (GDHAS) for evaluating urban ecological security.

Abstract:
Selecting indicators based on the characteristics and development trends of a given study area is essential for building a framework for assessing urban ecological security. However, few studies have focused on how to select the representative indicators systematically, and quantitative research is lacking. We developed an innovative quantitative modeling approach called the grey dynamic hierarchy analytic system (GDHAS) for both the procedures of indicator selection and quantitative assessment of urban ecological security. Next, a systematic methodology based on the GDHAS is developed to assess urban ecological security comprehensively and dynamically. This assessment includes indicator selection, driving force-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework building, and quantitative evaluation. We applied this systematic methodology to assess the urban ecological security of Tianjin, which is a typical coastal super megalopolis and the industry base in China. This case study highlights the key features of our approach. First, 39 representative indicators are selected for the evaluation index system from 62 alternative ones available through the GDHAS. Second, the DPSIR framework is established based on the indicators selected, and the quantitative assessment of the eco-security of Tianjin is conducted. The results illustrate the following: urban ecological security of Tianjin in 2008 was in alert level but not very stable; the driving force and pressure subsystems were in good condition, but the eco-security levels of the remainder of the subsystems were relatively low; the pressure subsystem was the key to urban ecological security; and 10 indicators are defined as the key indicators for five subsystems. These results can be used as the basis for urban eco-environmental management.