People who think men should not be worried because it is statistically unlikely are probably terrible at statistics.

The short of it is, a low false rape allegation rate is completely meaningless without any context. What’s more important is the base rate — i.e., how likely it is a random man is a rapist — in relation to the false rape probability. People ignoring this is so common there’s a name for it: [the base rate fallacy](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy). 

Let’s say there is some cancer screening device that detects some rare cancer. Only about 1 in 100,000 people have it. This screen can detect it 100% of the time it’s present, but falsely says someone has it 2 out of every 100 cases. If this device says you have the rare cancer do you actually have it?

Most people will say there’s a 98% chance you have it. That answer is wrong. Not slightly wrong, or a few percentage points wrong, but is a couple of orders of magnitude wrong! Not only that, but only [~20% of doctors get the right answer](https://blogs.cornell.edu/info2040/2014/11/12/doctors-dont-know-bayes-theorem/). 

If doctors have very low chances of knowing the right answer when dealing with non controversial things in their own field, what are the chances that laymen would on a highly controversial topic like false rape allegations?

But as we all know, math and statistics are inventions of patriarchy meant to oppress women 🙄