The categorical forecast in the Day 1-3 Convective Outlooks—which estimates a severe weather event occurring within 25 miles of a point and derives the attendant risk areas from probability forecasts of tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail on Day 1, and a combined severe weather risk on Days 2 and 3—specifies the level of overall severe thunderstorm risk via numbers, descriptive labeling, and colors as follows: (The Day 4-8 Convective Outlook assesses the percentile probability of severe thunderstorm activity during that period at the 15% and 30% likelihood.)