A learning launch is a business-world application of the scientific method; it is a way of  thinking that relies on generating and testing hypotheses. It starts with hypothesis- generating by asking a what-if question, which allows you to identify a new possibility to  act on. That possibility is your hypothesis — basically an educated guess about something  you think is likely to be a good idea. That’s the creative part. Then to test your hypothesis,  you specify what scientists call the boundary conditions. In other words, you ask: Under  what conditions would that hypothesis, in fact, be a good idea? Or — worded differently  — what would need to be true in order for my idea to be a good one? So, you bring to the  surface the assumptions that lie under your hypothesis, and then you go find the  appropriate data with which to test them. That is the analytic part.

If it turns out that your assumptions are not true, and your hypothesis is disproved, then  you should take the new data and go back and use it to restate the hypothesis better. And  then you test that new and improved hypothesis. It is an iterative process that you cycle  through continuously, learning something new each time that allows you to develop a  better hypothesis for the next pass. The process is what we refer to as intelligently  opportunistic. In other words, it lets you rigorously examine your current best guess, but  not in a way that forces you to accept or reject it. It instead allows new and previously  unanticipated improvements to your idea to emerge. This is learning as you go.

This hypothesis-driven approach is based on the idea of learning, rather than knowing. As  a result, it is particularly useful under conditions of uncertainty in which we don’t know as  much as we’d like to.

Does all of this sound familiar? Of course it does — a new business idea is, in fact, just a  hypothesis. And a learning launch is just a process for testing and improving that  hypothesis.

That’s the rub. Hypotheses about the future are a lot trickier to deal with than those about  the present; in fact, they can never really be proven to be true. As a strategist or a growth  leader, the best you can do is to marshal compelling evidence that supports your argument  that your view or your “story” about the future is likely to be worth pursuing. It has to be  testable with today’s data. That means that you have to tie the future hypothesis back to  some phenomena that are already operating today. Then you are going to ask your  audience to leap with you to tomorrow. Their ability to take that leap will be a function of  how compelling you can make your story about tomorrow on the basis of what we know  today. But only the passage of time will prove whether you are right or wrong.


A learning launch is a business - world application of the scientific method ; it is a way of thinking that relies on generating and testing hypotheses . It starts with hypothesis- generating by asking a what - if question , which allows you to identify a new possibility to act on . That possibility is your hypothesis — basically an educated guess about something you think is likely to be a good idea . That ’s the creative part . Then to test your hypothesis , you specify what scientists call the boundary conditions . In other words , you ask : Under what conditions would that hypothesis , in fact , be a good idea ? Or — worded differently — what would need to be true in order for my idea to be a good one ? So , you bring to the surface the assumptions that lie under your hypothesis , and then you go find the appropriate data with which to test them . That is the analytic part . If it turns out that your assumptions are not true , and your hypothesis is disproved , then you should take the new data and go back and use it to restate the hypothesis better . And then you test that new and improved hypothesis . It is an iterative process that you cycle through continuously , learning something new each time that allows you to develop a better hypothesis for the next pass . The process is what we refer to as intelligently opportunistic . In other words , it lets you rigorously examine your current best guess , but not in a way that forces you to accept or reject it . It instead allows new and previously unanticipated improvements to your idea to emerge . This is learning as you go . This hypothesis - driven approach is based on the idea of learning , rather than knowing . As a result , it is particularly useful under conditions of uncertainty in which we do n’t know as much as we ’d like to . Does all of this sound familiar ? Of course it does — a new business idea is , in fact , just a hypothesis . And a learning launch is just a process for testing and improving that hypothesis . That ’s the rub . Hypotheses about the future are a lot trickier to deal with than those about the present ; in fact , they can never really be proven to be true . As a strategist or a growth leader , the best you can do is to marshal compelling evidence that supports your argument that your view or your “ story ” about the future is likely to be worth pursuing . It has to be testable with today ’s data . That means that you have to tie the future hypothesis back to some phenomena that are already operating today . Then you are going to ask your audience to leap with you to tomorrow . Their ability to take that leap will be a function of how compelling you can make your story about tomorrow on the basis of what we know today . But only the passage of time will prove whether you are right or wrong .