Challenge – Owing to very little practical world experience, I am picking up a universal challenge, which  should be of concern to every human being. How to deal with Covid 19. There are multiple elements to  this challenge which are all inter related to each other and cannot be addressed by any one standalone  approach. However, the biggest solution that humanity has adopted so far for fighting this pandemic is a  preventive approach i.e. lockdown and I would be analyzing why this solution though seemingly simple  is much more complex and how we could have planned it in a relatively better manner.

Selection – Choice of my tool in this case is Visualization. As per my thought process, solutions that  seem simple and are addressing a rather complex issue need much more attention than the obvious  complex solutions. Since our issue and solution both are human centric, with extremely high level of  uncertainty; visualization is among the best tools that can help strategy designer think of all the  elements contributing to the issue as well as posing risk to the solution.

Application – In order to approach this issue let us use the tool at preliminary level to answer ‘What is’.  What is the issue, the as is situation. For me what is would be:

What is – Currently there is an infection outbreak, which is contagious with very high infectious rate. It is  airborne and can infect not only by respiratory system but also by any open pore for that matter. This  being a virus does not have a vaccine for it yet and the high mutation rate further reduces the  probability of finding one. Based on the preliminary observations and stats we have realized the  mortality rate is much higher in people aged above 50.

In an attempt to find the solution for this we should initiate with making clusters of interlinked items as  below

  Medical - M

  Economical - E

  Emotional - Em

  Informational - I

Medical cluster would ideally contain all the information about the medical infrastructure. That can be  PPE, Medical related facilities, List of specialized doctors in respiratory diseases across nation,  categorical bifurcation of doctors as per the locality – city – state – zone – region, medical stockpile  available and list of import dependent items along (with their source and terms of transaction)

Economical cluster can portray the real impact of lockdown. Now this is easier said than done. If there  were no existing mechanism to track and report such stats, it would be difficult to reach optimum stage  in this cluster. However, to begin with, a bifurcation of population working in core economy activity  (Miners/Farmers etc), economy supporting activity (courier services/Police/ Medical staff/ govt offices/  manufacturing workers etc), leisure and segment to be impacted least (IT, Movie theatre, Education,  Restaurants, Malls etc), provisioning of upcoming cost to nation based on existing medical infrastructure  from medical cluster (Overlap – M u E).

Emotional cluster is the one most important and difficult from human perspective. Understanding how  scared people would be, what sort of reaction to expect on lockdown, how practical it is to stay locked  in a house for 15 or 30 days straight, insecurities, belief and faith systems. This would essentially have all  subjective information with no right or wrong but various perspectives only

Informational cluster though would not have an impact on fighting the pandemic but largely how it is  managed. Outcome of this would largely have an impact on emotional cluster. Mode of communication,  type of communication, frequency of communication, interpretation of communications, govt press  releases, type of guidelines, authorities with decision taking abilities; all of this could form part of this  cluster. Effective management and planning of this would help government communicate much more  effectively with the masses and ensure support from the masses.

Insight and Approach – Current lockdown models though started with simplicity and a common  approach was soon realized as impractical and now have become eventually complex and difficult to  maintain. With the above visualization approach, it might have been possible to plan the overall strategy  in much effective manner. In my opinion below could have been possible approach for implementation  of these lockdown with minimum impact:

1. An initial 15 days lockdown in order to buy time for the above set of activities to chart out the

future outcome of this pandemic

2. Communication plan for masses to educate about the issue and provide directions to avoid any

miscommunication between different locations. It is very important to look at it as a system  instead of an isolated situation. Lockdown as a measure can only be effective if the overall  system functions in the intended manner

3. Separate instructions and arrangement for functioning of core economy activity and required

system support for those organizations

4. Long term advisories for all the leisure and least impacted fields to remove uncertainty and

promote better planning at individual levels

5. Procurement of all the essentials (extrapolating based on the understanding of infectious nature

of virus) in the first week of initial lockdown since logistics would be expected to be relatively  slow owing to huge demand and supply imbalance

6. Establishing national instead of state level control and protocol for people effected by the

pandemic

7. If first round of lockdown had not fixed the issue our visualization chart would have helped us

understand the kind of impact it had on our economy. The before and after picture might have  have helped us initiate the important economy supporting activity.

8. By realizing relation between various clusters and their dependency on each other we might

have had ample data to impose a stricter lockdown in round 3 without having much impact on  the masses

Theoretically and probably practically this would have helped us with a more planed approach of  implementing a lockdown as well as coming out of one. However, with none of this planning the  uncertain elements can be completely ruled out but largely can be subsided.


Challenge – Owing to very little practical world experience , I am picking up a universal challenge , which should be of concern to every human being . How to deal with Covid 19 . There are multiple elements to this challenge which are all inter related to each other and can not be addressed by any one standalone approach . However , the biggest solution that humanity has adopted so far for fighting this pandemic is a preventive approach i.e. lockdown and I would be analyzing why this solution though seemingly simple is much more complex and how we could have planned it in a relatively better manner . Selection – Choice of my tool in this case is Visualization . As per my thought process , solutions that seem simple and are addressing a rather complex issue need much more attention than the obvious complex solutions . Since our issue and solution both are human centric , with extremely high level of uncertainty ; visualization is among the best tools that can help strategy designer think of all the elements contributing to the issue as well as posing risk to the solution . Application – In order to approach this issue let us use the tool at preliminary level to answer ‘ What is ’ . What is the issue , the as is situation . For me what is would be : What is – Currently there is an infection outbreak , which is contagious with very high infectious rate . It is airborne and can infect not only by respiratory system but also by any open pore for that matter . This being a virus does not have a vaccine for it yet and the high mutation rate further reduces the probability of finding one . Based on the preliminary observations and stats we have realized the mortality rate is much higher in people aged above 50 . In an attempt to find the solution for this we should initiate with making clusters of interlinked items as below  Medical - M  Economical - E  Emotional - Em  Informational - I Medical cluster would ideally contain all the information about the medical infrastructure . That can be PPE , Medical related facilities , List of specialized doctors in respiratory diseases across nation , categorical bifurcation of doctors as per the locality – city – state – zone – region , medical stockpile available and list of import dependent items along ( with their source and terms of transaction ) Economical cluster can portray the real impact of lockdown . Now this is easier said than done . If there were no existing mechanism to track and report such stats , it would be difficult to reach optimum stage in this cluster . However , to begin with , a bifurcation of population working in core economy activity ( Miners / Farmers etc ) , economy supporting activity ( courier services / Police/ Medical staff/ govt offices/ manufacturing workers etc ) , leisure and segment to be impacted least ( IT , Movie theatre , Education , Restaurants , Malls etc ) , provisioning of upcoming cost to nation based on existing medical infrastructure from medical cluster ( Overlap – M u E ) . Emotional cluster is the one most important and difficult from human perspective . Understanding how scared people would be , what sort of reaction to expect on lockdown , how practical it is to stay locked in a house for 15 or 30 days straight , insecurities , belief and faith systems . This would essentially have all subjective information with no right or wrong but various perspectives only Informational cluster though would not have an impact on fighting the pandemic but largely how it is managed . Outcome of this would largely have an impact on emotional cluster . Mode of communication , type of communication , frequency of communication , interpretation of communications , govt press releases , type of guidelines , authorities with decision taking abilities ; all of this could form part of this cluster . Effective management and planning of this would help government communicate much more effectively with the masses and ensure support from the masses . Insight and Approach – Current lockdown models though started with simplicity and a common approach was soon realized as impractical and now have become eventually complex and difficult to maintain . With the above visualization approach , it might have been possible to plan the overall strategy in much effective manner . In my opinion below could have been possible approach for implementation of these lockdown with minimum impact : 1 . An initial 15 days lockdown in order to buy time for the above set of activities to chart out the future outcome of this pandemic 2 . Communication plan for masses to educate about the issue and provide directions to avoid any miscommunication between different locations . It is very important to look at it as a system instead of an isolated situation . Lockdown as a measure can only be effective if the overall system functions in the intended manner 3 . Separate instructions and arrangement for functioning of core economy activity and required system support for those organizations 4 . Long term advisories for all the leisure and least impacted fields to remove uncertainty and promote better planning at individual levels 5 . Procurement of all the essentials ( extrapolating based on the understanding of infectious nature of virus ) in the first week of initial lockdown since logistics would be expected to be relatively slow owing to huge demand and supply imbalance 6 . Establishing national instead of state level control and protocol for people effected by the pandemic 7 . If first round of lockdown had not fixed the issue our visualization chart would have helped us understand the kind of impact it had on our economy . The before and after picture might have have helped us initiate the important economy supporting activity . 8 . By realizing relation between various clusters and their dependency on each other we might have had ample data to impose a stricter lockdown in round 3 without having much impact on the masses Theoretically and probably practically this would have helped us with a more planed approach of implementing a lockdown as well as coming out of one . However , with none of this planning the uncertain elements can be completely ruled out but largely can be subsided .