text: The Work Foundation at Lancaster University responded to the labour market figures for November 2024 released by the Office for National Statistics.
  - Vacancies have decreased on the quarter for the 28th consecutive month to 831,000
  - The employment level is at 74.8% and up on the quarter, with unemployment is up at 4.3%
  - Nominal wage growth has fallen to 4.8% and has been falling for 13 months since reaching a record high of 7.9% in August 2023
  - After a disastrous 18-month period of negative real wage growth from December 2021 to May 2023, there has been a bounce back of 16 months of positive growth since June 2023
  - Economic inactivity due to long-term sickness is down slightly on the quarter at 2.78 million but has been above 2.7 million for 15 consecutive months.
  - There are now 671,000 more people who economically inactive due to long-term sickness since December-February 2020.
  Ben Harrison, Director of the Work Foundation at Lancaster University said:
  “While employment levels are stable, this masks that key indicators such as vacancies, wages and long-term sickness are stuck in reverse.
  “Vacancies have decreased for the 28th consecutive month but remain 35,000 above pre-pandemic levels. With recent hikes to employer National Insurance contributions and the minimum wage soon to take effect, we could see further cooling of the jobs market as some employers will lack confidence to employ more people as their overheads rise.
  “Wage growth is continuing to soften from the highs of 2023, but the UK is still in the midst of a 16-month period of positive real pay growth. However, this comes on the back of more than a decade of pay stagnation since the Global Financial Crash in 2008, and with staff demand falling and inflation due to rise over the coming months, the good news may be short-lived.
  “If the UK Government is to meet its intended 80% employment rate, it must act to address the high levels of long-term sickness that are keeping too many people out of the jobs market. Despite unemployment being at historically low levels, the UK has had over 2.7 million people out of the labour market due to long-term sickness since May-July 2023.
  “Taken together, the forthcoming Get Britain Working White Paper and Employment Rights Bill represent a big opportunity to support more people into sustained and secure employment – but only if the Government sticks to its guns on the direction and strength of reforms.
  “The emphasis must be on de-risking remaining in and returning to work for those with long-term health conditions. That means strengthening the UK’s meagre statutory sick pay system that forces some to work while ill, boosting access to flexible working from day one of employment, and shifting the focus of the welfare system away from punitive sanctions and towards more tailored, long-term employment support.”
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