thehill--2019-03-29--Two black men wrongfully convicted of murder freed after 43 years

Two black men who were wrongfully convicted of murder in Florida were freed earlier this week after serving more than 40 years behind bars.  Clifford Williams Jr. was 34 years old and his nephew, Hubert Nathan Myers, was just 18 when they were arrested in May 1976 after the shooting of two women, CNN reports.  The two were reportedly at a party in Jacksonville when the two women were shot, one fatally, in an apartment nearby. But they were quickly arrested, wrongfully convicted and subsequently handed life sentences after just a two-day trial at the time.  It wasn’t until Thursday that Williams, who is now 76, and Myers, 61, had their convictions vacated.  "I'm nervous because I feel like I'm still locked up," Williams told CNN Thursday. "Once I get with my family and know I can look back ... and the reality hits in, I think I'll be all right."  The news comes after a review of the men’s case under the Conviction Integrity Review (CIR) division of the State’s Attorney’s Office in Florida found that the state “no longer has confidence in the integrity of the convictions or guilt of the accused,” a report on the state's investigation seen by ABC News read.  The two men reportedly filed multiple motions for "postconviction relief” that would eventually fail before they began to see a change of luck after petitioning the CIR unit in 2017.  Among the findings from their work with the unit, officials also reportedly discovered another man, Nathaniel Lawson, had confessed to the 1976 shooting years after Williams and Myers were convicted for it.  The comprehensive review of the case would later lead to the state throwing out Williams's and Myers’s convictions and setting them free.  According to The Florida Times-Union, Myers will be eligible for compensation from the state for his wrongful imprisonment but Williams will not due to his past criminal record prior to the wrongful conviction.


theindependent--2019-02-25--California man freed after wrongly imprisoned for 40 years wins 21m settlement

California man freed after wrongly imprisoned for 40 years wins $21m settlement

A man wrongly convicted and imprisoned for nearly 40 years in the killing of his girlfriend and her four-year-old son reached a $21m (£16m) settlement with the city of Simi Valley, California over the weekend.  Craig Coley, 71, was released from prison in 2017 after DNA evidence and another investigation proved the man’s innocence. Then-Governor Jerry Brown pardoned Mr Coley.  The large-sum settlement agreement will also cover the arduous, costly and unneeded legal proceedings, Simi Valley officials told the Los Angeles Times.  “While no amount of money can make up for what happened to Mr Coley, settling this case is the right thing to do for Mr. Coley and our community,” city manager Eric Levitt said in a statement.  Simi Valley will be paying $4.9m (£3.75m) whereas the rest of the settlement will be paid out by insurance and other revenue sources.  Last year, the state approved a separate $2m payment for Mr Coley.  The 71-year-old spent 39 years in prison after he was wrongly convicted of killing Rhonda Wicht, 24, and her toddler son in 1978.  Simi Valley’s police chief and Ventura County’s district attorney requested the then-governor Mr Brown to pardon Mr Coley following results from forensic tests proving that his DNA was not on the victim’s bed sheet.  The contained DNA came from an unknown man.  Mr Coley had an alibi for the time of the killing. Investigators disproved eyewitness testimonies that placed him at the scene of the slayings.  His parents died while he was still behind bars. They mortgaged their home to pay for his legal bills.  Ron Kaye, Mr Coley’s attorney, said the settlement offers only a little bit of closure and vindication for his client. He added that no amount of money could pay back the time and life he missed while being falsely imprisoned.  “He now can live the rest of his life, which we hope will be really well into the future, with the security he deserves,” Mr Kaye told the Associated Press.  After Mr Coley was pardoned, the judge declared him “factually innocent.” There has been no other arrests made in the killings.  We’ll tell you what’s true. You can form your own view.  At The Independent, no one tells us what to write. That’s why, in an era of political lies and Brexit bias, more readers are turning to an independent source. Subscribe from just 15p a day for extra exclusives, events and ebooks – all with no ads.


theindependent--2019-07-01--Man freed after 17 years in prison when newly examined fingerprints prove his innocence

A man who spent 17 years behind bars for an armed robbery he did not commit has finally been freed after new fingerprint evidence proved his innocence.  Royal Clark Jr walked out of a Louisiana jail last week the day after his 41st birthday. He was convicted of the crime on his 25th birthday, back in 2002.  "I don't know what to say," a tearful Mr Clark told reporters and crowds of well-wishers.  There were times he had abandoned any hope he might be released from his 49-year sentence, he admitted.  “I'm not going to sit here and lie and tell you I didn't," he said, when asked if he given up. “[But] I can't let anger direct me. I can't let my past be my future."  Mr Clark was arrested after an armed robbery at a Burger King in 2001. The only evidence against him was an employee of the restaurant, who incorrectly identified Mr Clark as the robber.  But a team of lawyers at the Innocence Project New Orleans pressed the courts to re-examine fingerprints found at the scene, which when run through a state database proved to belong to another man, Jessie Perry, who had already been convicted of other robberies.  "As district attorney, my obligation to seek justice does not end upon conviction," the local district attorney Paul Connick said in a statement.  "When the evidence reveals an individual was wrongfully convicted, my office will take action to correct that injustice."  Outside the jail Mr Clark’s son, also called Royal, spoke about the absence of his father from his life.  Royal Clark III was only a baby when his father was locked up. “My mama couldn't always be there for me. She had to work," he said, his father's arm draped over his shoulder.  Tears streamed down his father's face. "He was supposed to be there to teach me."  Kia Hall Hayes, from the Innocence Project, said the miscarriage of justice showed how unreliable eyewitness testimony could be.  “His case serves as another example of the unreliability of eyewitness identification evidence, the importance of judges allowing juries all the tools they need to assess the evidence accurately, and the danger of relying exclusively on such evidence to take away someone’s liberty,” she said.  Mr Clark is the second person to be exonerated in Louisiana based on fingerprint evidence this year.  In March, Archie Williams was freed after serving 36 years for a rape once the authorities had finally agreed to run fingerprint evidence through an updated state database.  The Innocence Project said the state should now create a legal right for prisoners to access such databases where it could clear their names.  But in Mr Clark’s case, the Jefferson Parish Sheriff’s Office said they were only able to re-test the fingerprint evidence from the Burger King holdup because of new techniques, which were not available back in 2002.


newyorkpost--2019-03-31--Wrongfully convicted men finally free after 43 years in prison

Two wrongfully convicted men were released from prison Saturday after spending 43 years behind bars in Florida for a murder they didn’t commit.  Years ago another suspect confessed to the slayings, but only now have Clifford Williams, 76, and Nathan Myers, 61, been cleared in the 1976 killing of Jeanette Williams.  “I lost almost 43 years of my life that I can never get back, but I am looking ahead and will focus on enjoying my freedom with my family,” said Myers in a statement.  The uncle and nephew were sprung after a conviction integrity unit of the state’s attorney general reviewed the case.  It marks the first time the unit’s work led to a jailed prisoner being released.  The original case against the men heavily relied on the testimony of Nina Marshall, who was shot alongside Jeanette Williams, but survived. Her story changed over the years.  The overturn decision followed a 77-page report detailing witness accounts of another man, Nathaniel Lawson, now deceased, who admitted to the murder.


npr--2019-01-30--Wrongfully Convicted And Jailed 38 Years Fred Clay Gets 1 Million Payout

Wrongfully Convicted And Jailed 38 Years, Fred Clay Gets $1 Million Payout

Fred Clay, who was wrongfully convicted of murder and spent almost 38 years in Massachusetts prisons, will receive a $1 million settlement from the state, the highest amount allowed under a new state law.  The settlement with the Massachusetts Attorney General was finalized Tuesday in Suffolk Superior Court, the same courthouse where Clay's conviction was vacated in 2017 and his freedom granted at age 53.  "It is a great day for justice and it is a great day for Mr. Clay," said Jeffrey Harris, one of Clay's attorneys who sued the state in June for compensation. "The Commonwealth was willing to pay the full million dollars that's available under the law and it does appear that in this case, the law worked the way it was supposed to."  Clay was arrested in 1979 just weeks after turning 16 and charged as an adult for the murder of a cab driver in Roslindale, Mass. He was convicted of first-degree murder based partly on testimony from a witness named Richard Dwyer, who identified Clay only after he had been put under hypnosis by a police detective.  Clay's release from prison in August 2017 came after years of investigations by the state's Innocence Program convinced the Suffolk district attorney's Conviction Integrity Program to reassess Clay's murder conviction.  WGBH News chronicled Clay's first year of freedom in a radio series that aired last September.  After his release, Clay received no assistance from the state during his first 17 months outside prison and has struggled to find a good-paying job and decent housing. One state legislator is pointing to his case as a reason to retool the way the state assists wrongfully convicted people released from prison, to provide more immediate assistance once they are freed.  State Sen. Patricia Jehlen said the media focus on Clay helped convince her to write a bill she filed less than two weeks ago, calling for getting quicker cash assistance and help with housing and job training to wrongfully convicted people.  "Immediately upon release, the person could receive $5,000 and immediate help with things like finding a job or finding a home, getting health insurance — all of those are things that would be a part of their transition out of prison," said Jehlen.  Jehlen said she has discussed the bill with Attorney General Maura Healey, who told WGBH News last year that she also favors changing the law to make it easier for people like Clay to get compensation.  Clay's lawyers waited until June to file a lawsuit for compensation because the state law was rewritten just last year to raise the payment limit from $500,000 to $1 million.  Of the 69 people who have sued for compensation under the state law, fewer than half have gotten any money from the state. The average payout, before Clay's settlement, was $364,000.  Under the state's formula, people like Fred Clay who served long sentences receive a much lower per-year payout. Clay's settlement equals about $26,000 for each year he was wrongfully incarcerated.  "Would anyone take $26,000 to be in prison for a year?" asked Clay's attorney Jeffrey Harris. "Probably not."


trueactivist--2019-01-22--Man Wrongfully Convicted Gets Parole Thanks To Podcast

In 1998, Edward Ates was wrongfully convicted for the murder of Elnora Griffin. After being in prison for the last two decades, he was finally released on parole thanks to the Truth & Justice podcast and it’s loyal listeners. These listeners who believed his cry for help raised over $30,000 which Ates’ lawyers used for DNA tests to fully exonerate him.  On the eve of July 22, 1993, Griffin had been brutally murdered inside her trailer which was located near Ates’ home. Although none of Ates’ DNA was found at the crime scene, their common neighbor, Cubia Jackson, contacted the police putting Ates at the scene on the night of the murder.  When the police investigated his whereabouts, his alibi didn’t check out. The most important piece of evidence was the human feces of the victim found in the crime scene, which they tied up to the ‘supposed’ fecal material the detectives scraped off Ates’ shoe during an interview. Although tests failed to prove that the substance scraped off from Ates’ shoe was faces, this false evidence was used during the 1998 trial, when prosecutors wrongfully told the jury that it was feces; which put the final seal in the coffin and aided his conviction.  Between 1994 – 1998, when Ates was being tried for the murder, he met his future wife, Kim, and had two children.  He has spent the first part of his children’s lives in prison. In March 2018, when Ates became eligible for parole, the Truth & Justice listeners sent numerous letters to the Board of Padrons and Paroles to release him.  This proved to be a success as Ates was eventually released from the Hunstville State Prison on September 5, 2018. Alison Clayton from the Innocence Project of Texas has been assigned to Ates’ case and is now working hard to fully exonerate him and help him adjust back to re-entering society.


freedombunker--2019-08-21--Texas Is Executing a Man Tonight for a Murder and Rape Experts Say He Didnt Commit

Texas Is Executing a Man Tonight for a Murder and Rape Experts Say He Didn’t Commit

A little after 6 p.m., the state of Texas will execute Larry Swearingen for a crime experts believe he was unable to commit.  Journalist Andrew Purcell detailed the events leading to Swearingen's impending death in a thorough investigation.  A 19-year-old college student named Melissa Trotter disappeared from her Montgomery College campus, north of Houston, in December 1998. Police set their sights on Swearingen, an electrician who was witnessed having a conversation with Trotter in the college library. Montgomery County law enforcement also found a scrap of paper with the name "Larry" and his phone number in one of Trotter's books.  After a few days went by, officers tailed Swearingen in an unmarked car and eventually arrested him at his mother's house over unpaid speeding and parking tickets. His bail was set high. Though Swearingen was questioned about Trotter's whereabouts, he maintained that he saw her last on campus.  Three weeks later in January 1999, while Swearingen was sitting behind bars, Trotter's body was discovered in Sam Houston National Forest. Trotter had seemingly been strangled to death by one leg of pantyhose. With the discovery of the body, Swearingen was charged with murder.  A number of errors in Swearingen's trial doomed him to death row. At least two involving DNA sealed his fate.  The Washington Post reports that the second leg of pantyhose was discovered in Swearingen's trailer by a landlord, even though it was searched twice before by law enforcement. A Texas Department of Public Safety lab technician testified in court that it was "a unique physical match" to the pantyhose leg found on Trotter's body.  Since that time, the legs have been retested. Two experts have reported that the pantyhose don't match. A third expert has refuted the original technician's testimony.  The second major piece of convicting evidence was the timeline offered by medical examiner Joye Carter. When Carter performed Trotter's autopsy, she was able to cut samples of Trotter's internal organs. Carter later told the court that she estimated Trotter's death to be on the day she disappeared, about 25 days before her body was discovered. However, medical experts note that if Carter's assumption were true, a number of the organs she was able to cut would have already been liquified by the time the body was discovered. Pictures of the crime scene also show Trotter's body intact, not heavily decomposed.  Since Carter gave her testimony, seven different forensic pathologists have offered a new timeline. Trotter was missing for several weeks, and likely died within two weeks of her body being found—not the same day she disappeared.  The new timeline gives Swearingen a flawless alibi: he was behind bars at the time of death.  Determined to pin the case on him, the prosecution accused Swearingen of raping Trotter before she died, despite the absence of semen, defensive wounds, or any other indication that she was involved in a physical struggle. Lacking in the forensic evidence to tie Swearingen to the murder, the prosecution painted his odd behavior as the result of his obvious guilt.  The prosecution was not the only party at fault. The Innocence Project, which has spent years trying to save Swearingen from facing capital punishment, has spent years pushing for DNA testing that should have been performed by investigators. As The Intercept reported in 2017, the state didn't perform DNA testing on Trotter's clothes, swabs from her rape kit, cigarette butts found near her body, or even the pantyhose identified as the murder weapon.  Rather than grant Swearingen and the Innocence Project the DNA tests that could shed additional light on the case, Texas responded by scheduling his execution.  "They are going to execute someone that the legitimate forensic science has proven innocent," James Rytting, Swearingen's attorney, told The Texas Tribune on Tuesday. "And the execution is going through on the basis of other forensic science that is borderline quackery—in fact it is quackery."  Kristin Houle, executive director of the Texas Coalition to Abolish the Death Penalty, tells Reason "It is a sad day for justice in Texas. If his execution proceeds, Larry Swearingen will join several other individuals who were put to death by the state despite credible evidence of innocence."


hitandrun--2019-08-15--After Spending 23 Years in Prison for a Murder He Didnt Commit Ricky Kidd Is Going Home

After Spending 23 Years in Prison for a Murder He Didn't Commit, Ricky Kidd Is Going Home

Ricky Kidd was charged in 1996 for a double murder that he did not commit. Eyewitness testimony and other evidence pointed to a different killer, but the murders were pinned on Kidd regardless and he was sentenced to life in prison without the possibility of parole. On Wednesday, Judge Daren L. Adkins of Missouri's 43rd Judicial Circuit granted Kidd habeas corpus relief.  After 23 years behind bars, Kidd will finally get to go home a free man, unless state prosecutors opt to retry him within 30 days of the Adkins' ruling.  "Our obligation here, as with every case, is to seek the truth," Jackson County Prosecutor Jean Peters Baker said in a statement to the Associated Press. But how much does the truth matter if prosecutors and police ignored it for more than two decades?  Police in Kansas City, Missouri, received a call in 1996 after neighbors believed they heard gunshots. Upon investigation, the lifeless bodies of George Bryant and Oscar Bridges were discovered at Bryant's property. An anonymous tip, which was likely called in by those connected to the crime, named Kidd as a suspect. That tip—and a number of Brady violations committed by the prosecutor—sealed Kidd's fate.  Multiple witnesses attested that around the time of the shooting, Kidd was driving to the Jackson County Sheriff's Office at Lake Jacomo, Missouri, to apply for a gun permit in order to purchase a .357 revolver. Kidd filled out the paperwork at the sheriff's office. Not only did Kidd have a solid alibi, but his actions seemed weirdly timed for someone said to have recently committed a double homicide.  Kidd's alibi was not enough to save him from a sloppy police investigation. Nor did it convince the Jackson County lead prosecutor, who relied on out-of-context DNA evidence and a misleading witness identification to paint Kidd as a killer. In fact, the prosecutor, Amy McGowan, acknowledged in a 2017 deposition that "there is no physical evidence tying [Kidd] to the crime scene that I recall."  Kidd's defense team also previously revealed to Reason that McGowan did not disclose the depositions of Gary Goodspeed Sr. and Gary Goodspeed Jr., both of whom are now considered "viable alternative suspects" in the murders of Bryant and Bridges, according to Adkins' ruling. Kidd's lawyers have spent years arguing that this was a Brady violation that ultimately helped doom Kidd.  With the system stacked against him, Kidd was sentenced to life without the possibility of parole.  Though Kidd was sentenced to die alone in a cell, he had the Midwest Innocence Project (MIP) in his corner. Thanks to that group's years-long effort, Kidd received a Rule 91 hearing in April, which allowed him one final shot at habeas corpus relief. As Sean O'Brien, Kidd's lawyer and law professor at the University of Missouri–Kansas City, told Reason in April, this was Kidd's "best last bite at the apple."  On Wednesday, Adkins ordered the state of Missouri to release Kidd from prison.  "Based on a careful consideration of the record and these proceedings, this Court finds that the evidence is clear and convincing that Kidd is innocent of the murders of George Bryant and Oscar Bridges," Adkins wrote in his 107-page decision.  Adkins also concluded that the prosecution committed a Brady violation by not disclosing "exculpatory evidence" about the Godspeeds' depositions.  It's certainly good news that Kidd has finally been exonerated. But it's also bittersweet.  "If anything, Ricky's case shows just how hard it is to correct an injustice," Tricia Bushnell, executive director or the MIP and a member of Kidd's legal team, told the AP. "It shouldn't take 20 years to bring a man home. Ricky's case is solved. We know who committed this crime," she added.  Kidd's case exposed a number of serious problems within the Missouri criminal justice system, which Reason detailed earlier this year. A combination of factors, including an inadequate public defense system, alleged prosecutorial misconduct, and a court system where innocence isn't always enough, has contributed to what Kidd has described to Reason as a "horrible nightmare."  And even if he does get to come home, which seems likely, there's no getting back the 23 years Kidd lost while incarcerated.  "Those are a lot of years," he said earlier this year of his long incarceration. "And I don't get a chance to get those back."  "There's no money that can replace 22 years of what he's lost," Monica Gray, Kidd's ex-girlfriend and a key part of his alibi, told Reason in an interview earlier this year.  Kay Lincoln, whose father, Rodney, spent 36 years wrongly incarcerated before his release last year, expressed similar sentiments. "Unfortunately, there is no making up for the lost time," she told Reason in an interview. "There's nothing we can do to make up for that. However, when you do get out, you can refuse to be bitter. You can embrace life and embrace your family."  Kidd's ordeal, which you can read more about here, was summed up well by Monica Gray: "People work so hard to put people behind bars that are criminals. They need to work just as hard to free the innocent."


thedailymirror--2019-08-30--Woman who spent 35 years in prison for murders she didnt commit awarded 25m

Woman who spent 35 years in prison for murders she didn't commit awarded £2.5m

A woman who spent 35 years in prison for two murders she didn't commit has been awarded $3million in damages.  Cathy Woods, 68, claims detectives coerced her into admitting she killed a student in 1976.  DNA at the scene of the murder proved she was not the killer, and another man has since been convicted.  She was in a mental health hospital in Louisiana when the fabricated confession happened, her lawyer said.  Rodney Halbower was convicted of the two killings in the Bay Area, and Woods was released from prison in 2015.  She is the longest-ever wrongly imprisoned woman in US history, the National Registry of Exonerations says.  Lawyer Elizabeth Wang said Woods was "extremely psychotic" and should not have been questioned about the murder of student Michelle Mitchell.  She was also wrongly found guilty of killing Paula Baxter, 17.  This week the Washoe County Commission voted to award $3million in compensation to settle a portion of a lawsuit brought by Woods.  A further claim is still ongoing.  According to the Daily Mail , Ms Wang stated: "Although no amount of money will compensate Ms. Woods for what she endured, this will go at least some way toward providing care for her."  Woods' conviction has long been controversial. She was found guilty in 1980, but this was overturned by the Nevada Supreme Court.  However she was re-convicted in 1984, and in 1988 this was upheld.  It wasn't until 2014 that Halbower's guilt was confirmed thanks to DNA evidence.  Authorities believe he raped and killed four women and girls, but has only been convicted of two.  In a statement the county said: "The conviction and subsequent incarceration of Woods for murder is a tragic situation that Washoe County hopes is never repeated.  "While money can rarely compensate an individual for loss of freedom, Washoe County sincerely hopes that this monetary settlement will be utilized for the best possible care of Woods."


wnd--2019-12-10--On death row for a murder he did not commit

We often hear about inmates on death row who are exonerated after years behind bars, usually because the prosecution made procedural errors, or there wasn't any DNA evidence to convincingly prove the person committed the crime. But what if it was made clear at the trial that someone else committed the murder, not the guy sentenced to death row?  Patrick Bearup has been sitting behind bars for almost 17 years, sentenced to death for a murder he did not commit. He fell in with some bad people in his 20s. They told him to accompany them to the house of Mark Mathes, who his roommate Jessica Nelson said had stolen $200 from her. Nelson set up the visit. They told the owners of the house, the brother and sister-in-law of Mathes, that they were going to confront him. The brother asked them to get his ring back, which Mathes was wearing. Jeremy Johnson carried a baseball bat over there. Sean Gaines carried a shotgun. Bearup, the son of a police officer in Arizona, was terrified; he thought they were going to kill him. He only had his folding knife on him, which he regularly carried. Instead, Johnson beat Mathes to death with his baseball bat.  After Mathes was murdered, Nelson tried to cut the ring off his finger. She was having difficulty, so Bearup helped her and used wire cutters to cut the ring to get it off. They never reported the murder, and Mathes's body was not discovered until a year later.  After they were caught, the prosecution offered plea bargains to Johnson, Nelson and Gaines. Johnson, the killer, accepted a deal of 14 years in prison. He is now out. Nelson accepted the same deal and is also now out. Gaines took a plea deal of 25 years; it was longer since he had a criminal history. He is still serving that term.  The prosecution did not offer Bearup a plea bargain. They claimed that Bearup had cut Mathes's finger off, not the ring – but the body had decomposed after a year so they produced no evidence of this. However, both Johnson and Nelson testified that Bearup did not kill Mathes. They also said he wasn't one of them; they didn't like him because he was a cop's kid. Bearup was convicted of felony-murder by a jury and given the death penalty.  Why wasn't Bearup given a plea bargain like the others? The Bearups think it is because his father, Tom Bearup, ran against the county sheriff for office. They think the sheriff and county attorney retaliated against them.  Judge Warren Granville, a former prosecutor, was so horrified he wrote in his opinion that justice was not served in this case. He said Bearup's behavior did not rise to the level of a capital punishment crime. He said even if Bearup had cut Mathes's finger off, he still didn't kill Mathes. Mathes's brother tellingly had the ring repaired.  Bearup had 2-week-old twins when he was arrested. They have grown up without him. Meanwhile, he has been an exemplary prisoner. He has not gotten into trouble. He has obtained advanced degrees in prison and is currently working on his Ph.D. (which he paid for himself, not the taxpayers). When he was told by a woman on the staff to stop holding Bible studies, he sued and won the right to have them. He makes stuffed animals from prison T-shirts and sells them to raise funds. Some of them are decked out as Trump supporters. The staff tells his family that he is a wonderful guy, not the type you'd find on death row.  Bearup is still going through the appeals process. It takes on average of 20 years for inmates on death row to go through the process and get exonerated. He is also trying to get a pardon. Since it's a state crime, President Trump probably can't pardon him. But the governor of Arizona, Doug Ducey, can commute his sentence. Bearup has also asked for clemency from the state clemency board. Nancy Barto, a respected Republican state legislator, provided a letter to the board on Bearup's behalf. Unfortunately, members of the board did not grant it.  His father asks, "Why do they want to kill someone who didn't kill someone? While they let the real murderer out on the street? I'm as pro-death penalty as they come. If he had murdered someone I would not be defending him." Bearup is now 42. His father says all he wants is for his son to come home before he dies.  I am very skeptical of inmates on death row who are "exonerated," because usually it's not because they were actually innocent. This isn't one of those cases. It's black and white that Bearup did not commit the murder. Hopefully, he will receive justice through the appeal or Gov. Ducey will commute his sentence.


globalresearch--2019-12-10--U.S. Efforts to Force Iran Out of European Energy Markets Has Failed

Despite the European Union attempts to save the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which saw Iran reduce its low-enriched uranium by 98% and eliminate its stockpile of medium-enriched uranium in return for economic relief, JCPOA is hanging by a thread because of Washington’s withdrawal from the deal in October 2017.  The European Statistical Office revealed that from January to September trade between the EU and Iran was at €3.86 billion, a massive 74.92% drop compared to the same period in 2018. The report revealed that Germany (€1.23 billion), Italy (€734.78 million) and the Netherlands (€376.73 million) were Iran’s top three trading partners in EU while trade with Greece (€32.08 million), Luxembourg (€506,316), Spain (€207.36 million), France (€296.5 million) and Austria (€102.11 million) had plunged by 97.13%, 91.38%, 91.17%, 86.79% and 82.38% respectively.  Although Iran’s trade with Cyprus at €6.25 million and Bulgaria at €64.97 million increased by 85.12% and 29.24% respectively year-on-year— the highest among EU states — it still does not offset the massive decline in trade with Greece, Luxembourg, Spain, France and Austria. The major decline in trade is attributed due to European companies’ unwillingness to risk losing business with the U.S. for the sake of the much smaller Iranian market. Effectively, U.S. President Donald Trump’s economic war with Iran is to diminish Iranian-EU trade so that for the U.S. may reap benefits from boosting its own oil and other commodities. However, this is set to change.  With this dramatic downturn in trade with the EU, Iran is now pushing to diversify its economy even further to overcome a reliance on oil and take a number of measures in an attempt to counter U.S. economic aggression, including increasing taxes, cutting energy subsidies and to borrow money from friendly states. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani explained on Sunday in parliament that oil revenues are expected to drop by at least 70% and that Iran’s budget next year “is designed to resist against sanctions and to announce to the world that we run this country despite sanctions.”  The Iranian president explained that the new budget will reach $115.3 billion because of the reduction of oil exportation from 2.8 million barrels of oil a day before Trump’s May sanctions to 500,000 barrels a day. In addition, Iran will sell more bonds in the domestic market and plans to increase revenues from taxes by 13%, but these changes come as the International Monetary Fund has already forecasted that the Islamic Republic will have a reduction of its economy of about 9.5% this year.  This “budget of resistance,” as described by Rouhani, is “contrary to what the Americans thought. With the pressure of sanctions, our country’s economy would encounter problems, thank God we have chosen the correct path… and we are moving forward.”  Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi announced on Monday that the European signatories to the JCPOA will not activate the “trigger mechanism” for the time being that could see the return of sanctions against the Islamic Republic. It is unlikely that the EU or Iran will withdraw from what remains of JCPOA as they attempt to bypass U.S. sanctions which can see the besieged country improve its economy through increased trade with Europe.  Not only has the EU pledged to maintain its nuclear deal commitments, in a joint statement late last month, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden said they will attain shares in Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges (INSTEX), that was launched by Britain, France and Germany in January to allow European companies to trade with Iran without using U.S. dollars so they could be protected from U.S. sanctions.  In their joint statement, they said:  This is also a part of a wider move to counter strong U.S. efforts to muscle in on the European oil market as U.S. sanctions have scared buyers from acquiring Iranian and Venezuelan crude. The so-called hydro-fracking and shale revolution that began a few years ago has seen the U.S. aggressively seek to export its oil to new markets. It is now unsurprising that earlier this year U.S. crude shipments to Europe reached new records, behind Russia but still more than Nigeria and Libya who are important OPEC members.  Therefore, a major reason for the false allegations by Trump that Iran was violating the JCPOA was to force Iran out of the European market to push on the U.S. entrance. It appears that Trump’s plan has failed. Not only has Iran formulated its “budget of resistance,” but with Belgium, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden becoming shareholders INSTEX, they are prepared to continue their economic relations with Iran while being protected from U.S. repercussions. Effectively, although the U.S. has achieved a short-term reduction in European-Iranian trade, it will not only recover, but also be strengthened as new mechanisms are being made to bypass U.S. banks and dollars.  Note to readers: please click the share buttons above or below. Forward this article to your email lists. Crosspost on your blog site, internet forums. etc.  This article was originally published on InfoBrics.  Paul Antonopoulos is a Research Fellow at the Center for Syncretic Studies.


russiainsider--2019-04-12--US Fantasizes About Kicking Russia Out of European Energy Market but Berlin Needs Russian Natural G

US Fantasizes About Kicking Russia Out of European Energy Market, but Berlin Needs Russian Natural Gas

Even when it comes to liquified natural gas alone, Europe still buys more from Russia  Checkpoint Asia is an excellent new site which scours the media for the best Asia news with a geopolitical focus, plus 1st-class original journalism ranging from Russia to China to the Middle East. Smart, incisive, and free of globalist baloney. Reader-supported, please donate! They have a great Facebook page, with very good memes.  Dreams are nice to have, but there just is no scenario in the world where it makes much sense for Europe to source its gas all the way from America — sabogating Russian pipelines to EU is completely pointless  Russia shipped more LNG (liquefied natural gas) to European and Asian markets than the United States last year, the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers, GIIGNL, said in its annual report.  According to the document, the 15 European countries including Spain, France, and the Netherlands, received a total of 4.43 million tons of LNG from Russia – over 60 percent more than from the US. America’s total shipments to the European market amounted to 2.7 million tons.  In Europe, net LNG imports were up 6.4 percent reaching 48.9 million tons compared to previous year’s purchases. Qatar, Algeria, and Nigeria topped the list of the largest LNG exporters to the region, with Doha having shipped more than 16 million tons.  Washington has been trying to compete with Moscow for the European energy market, by warning its EU allies of their growing dependency on Russian energy, mainly natural gas, while pushing its own LNG sales to the region. The US has been vocally criticizing the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. Berlin has repeatedly defended the project, arguing that it wants to carry out an independent energy policy and ensure energy security.  Moreover, Russia left the US behind in deliveries to the leading LNG importing region, Asia, as China and South Korea continue to drive global demand. The LNG shipments from Russia amounted to 12.86 million tons last year, while American imports stood at 10.73 million tons.  Australia secured the leading position on the Asian market, with more than 66 million tons delivered last year. Qatar followed in second place with over 56 million tons of LNG shipped.  However, the US overtook Russia in overall LNG exports last year, having supplied around 2.3 million more to its customers, led by South Korea, Mexico, and Japan.  In 2018, global LNG imports reached 313.8 million tons, an increase of 8.3 percent compared with the previous year, the third largest annual surge behind 2010 and 2017, according to GIIGNL calculations. New LNG supply volumes were mostly driven by new production from Australia – which became the largest LNG exporter – the US, and Russia, which recently fully launched the Yamal LNG project in the Arctic.


sputnik--2019-05-14--Russia Ready to Diversify Costa Rican Energy Market Monopolised by US - Diplomat

"The vast majority of the petroleum products — gasoline, fuel oil and diesel — Costa Rica brings in from the United States, or some 95 percent. They would like to diversify this market. They have interest to talk with Russian companies".  Kudachkin pointed out Russian companies may show interest in diversifying Costa Rica’s petroleum products market rather than solely being interested in petroleum products.  "The Costa Ricans know that we have big experience in building gas and oil pipelines. Maybe they will try to agree and explore our experience in this area", he said.  Contact Group Believes Russia Should Be Part of Dialogue on Venezuela - Swedish Diplomat Kudachkin noted that Costa Rica does not produce oil because the country has issued a moratorium on research and development of mineral resources.  "There is no production at all. They bring oil products from abroad, and in sufficiently large number. The volume of imported products is about 4-5 billion dollars annually. This is one of the reserves", Kudachkin said.  May 8 marked the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Russia and Costa Rica.  An bilateral agreement on mutual abolition of visas comes in force on 25 May.


sputnik--2019-11-09--Russia Hopes US Understands Iranian Deal Collapse Will Hit Financial, Energy Markets Hard

The collapse of the Iranian deal will affect commodity and financial markets, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said on Saturday at a non-proliferation conference in Moscow.  According to Ryabkov, a hypothetical dismantling of the JCPOA could lead to a new major crisis in the Middle East and Iran understands that.  The official added that any attempts to deprive Iran of the chance to develop a peaceful nuclear programme are nothing but utopian dreams.  He also said that it would be hard to restore the viability of the nuclear agreement and it's unclear what future is in store for the deal in the short term.  Ryabkov stated that Iran will hopefully not obtain nuclear weapons as all the necessary control mechanisms remain in place.  Meanwhile, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said at the press conference that Tehran is rolling back its obligations under the 2015 nuclear deal to preserve the accord rather than destroy it, with the relevant right stipulated in the document itself.  Araghchi added that the nuclear deal could collapse before the US 2020 election unless a solution is found in the near future.  According to the official, the US push to drive Iran's oil sales to zero is actually a "blessing" for the Islamic republic, which should seize it as an opportunity to get rid of dependence on natural resources and diversify the economy.  Paragraph 36 stipulates that a signatory to the deal can cease its commitments "in whole or in part" if an issue that it deems to be constituting "significant non-performance" still remains unresolved as a result of procedures outlined in the accord.  Tehran began gradually reducing its nuclear obligations on the first anniversary of the US unilateral pullout from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal on 8 May. Earlier in the week, Iran embarked on the fourth stage of curtailing its commitments. According to the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, the country plans to enrich uranium to 4.5 percent at the Fordow nuclear facility.  Iran has repeatedly stressed its readiness to reverse these steps if European signatories to the deal ensure the country’s interests, primarily economic, amid Washington’s reinstated sanctions.


unian--2019-01-02--Ukraines energy market watchdog raises heating tariffs for households as of Jan 1

# Ukraine's energy market watchdog raises heating tariffs for households as of Jan 1  The tariffs increased due to a rise in the price of natural gas.  ## UNIAN Web subscription  Get a complete information picture of the day by [subscribing](http://subscribe.unian.info/subscribe/) to UNIAN’s news feeds.  For more information, please call:  +38 (044) 354-28-06  n.tkachenko@pluses.com.ua  If you see a spelling error on our site, select it and press Ctrl+Enter


unian--2019-05-31--Zelensky Demonopolization of energy markets key issue in energy sectors reform

Zelensky: Demonopolization of energy markets key issue in energy sector's reform

Today, the issues of energy sphere were discussed in the format of the meeting, while relevant decisions will be made in two weeks.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said one of Ukraine's commitments to the European Union is the reform of the energy sector with the demonopolization of energy markets being the key issue.  During a meeting with members of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine concerning energy security, he said the next stage of the electricity market should start from July 1, according to the president's press service.  "However, in conditions of total monopolization, there may be risks for producers, for consumers and for the Ukrainian economy as a whole. The international partners warn us against that," Zelensky said.  The president reiterated he visited the Lisova mine in Lviv region yesterday, where two miners had been killed and expressed condolences to the relatives of the victims.  "Two years ago, eight miners were killed at the Stepova mine. Recently, 17 miners were killed at the Skhidkarbon mine near Luhansk. These are all our people. Problems in the coal industry have common roots wherever they arise," the president said.  Zelensky said that during the last week he had visited two places, where Ukrainians were killed.  "Bullets and shells kill on the frontline. And irresponsibility, mismanagement and corruption kill in the rear," Zelensky stressed.  Today, the issues of energy sphere were discussed in the format of the meeting, while relevant decisions will be made in two weeks.  "The stakes are extremely high – the safety and welfare of our people," the president said.  Zelensky said coal production by Ukraine's state enterprises had decreased by 47% during 2014-2018. The Ukrainian economy is critically dependent on the import of energy resources, and very little has been done to obtain them from different sources.  "Despite rosy statements, gas production does not increase. Tomorrow is summer, but winter is coming. And we should prepare for the heating season," the president said.


unian--2019-07-06--Weeks balance Launch of energy market forex easing and Nefyodov starting war against shadow busi

Week's balance: Launch of energy market, forex easing, and Nefyodov starting war against shadow businesses

The first week of July was revolutionary for the Ukrainian energy market: its new model started working, the essence of which is that henceforth energy companies will buy electricity at electronic biddings. Previously, the electricity market worked on the principle of all generating companies supplying electricity produced to the state-owned Energorynok at a price set by the National Energy and Utilities Regulations Commission (NEURC). After that, it was electricity suppliers who purchased electricity and redirected it to consumers.  The deep reform of the market was long overdue as well as the transition to European rules. The Ukrainian power industry was on the verge of a crisis: mutual debts without sources of coverage were formed, estimated at UAH 30 billion, low prices for the households were covered by the high cost of electricity for the industry, energy infrastructure failed to receive billions of hryvnias in investments required, while excessive over-regulation led to enormous corruption in the sector.  Therefore, in April 2017, the Parliament adopted a reformist Law on the Electricity Market. It provides for the introduction of more transparent and competitive relations in the energy market, and also meets the requirements of the Third EU Energy Package. Two years were allocated for its implementation.  It is worth noting that the experience of European countries that have carried out such reforms in their countries has shown that at first, following innovations, there will be a significant increase in prices for consumers. After upgrading, creating competition, and adapting to new conditions, prices will decrease, but this will take time – several years. It is clear that this may cause a wave of discontent among the population, already agitated by rising tariffs.  To prevent social unrest and not to harm the economy, the government introduced temporary restrictive measures. The Cabinet of Ministers passed a resolution on special obligations, according to which the state-owned Energoatom will have to sell no more than 90% of its electricity at a fixed price, and Ukrhydroenergo – no more than 35%. This decision will prevent the increase in electricity prices for the households.  In addition, the NEURC set a weighted average price for electricity for industrial consumers at UAH 1.62/kWh.  On July 1, during the first bidding, the price on the market was formed at a level below the established limits. For coal generation (producing the most expensive electricity, not counting alternative generation, which does not participate in the market), the price was set at UAH 1.59/kWh, which is 2% below the weighted average.  Thus, a new electricity market, although within certain limitations, has finally been launched. Ukraine is now facing tasks just as complex, both technical and political: to open the market for the households, bring software maintenance to perfection, ensure competition, and prevent monopolization, integrate the Ukrainian energy system into the EU market, and protect the reform from dubious judicial rulings and the someone's will to curb it.  This week, the Cabinet of Ministers at its regular meeting approved First Deputy Minister of Economic Development and Trade Maksym Nefyodov as head of the State Customs Service. Prime Minister volodymyr Groysman expressed support for Nefyodov and noted that, together with the new prestigious status, he received an "order" to start war with shadow businesses.  "Maksym Nefyodov, today you will receive an order to start war with shadow businesses. And as I once supported ProZorro and deregulation, I'll also support your work at customs. We need the result: [goods of] clean businesses must be cleared rapidly, while all shady schemes must be eliminated at the systemic level. And I am convinced that we can do it together," Groysman said.  Nefyodov thanked the government for its support and promised to implement a quality reform of the customs service.  "I would very much like the Verkhovna Rada to support us in the implementation of reform. For my part, I can guarantee that I will not become richer in this office, I will be open to business, and I can guarantee that we will achieve the result that we have shown in many other areas like deregulation or public procurement. We are really pleasantly surprising our international partners," the newly appointed head of the agency noted.  He promised to eliminate the existing fiscal imbalance in customs, so that the agency staff would focus not on the process of collecting duties and filling the state budget, but on ensuring security and facilitating international trade.  Among his priorities as head of the customs service, Nefyodov also called the need to create an electronic customs office and synchronize its work with the customs authorities of other states. In his opinion, this will eliminate corruption. He also promised to increase the salaries of customs operatives to encourage them to work honestly.  "We need to create decent conditions for customs officers and revise their salaries. This is not a problem of customs alone, it is a problem of the entire civil service. Unfortunately, high-quality personnel have left the customs. Almost all the possibilities regarding the development of IT-products have been destroyed," the official added.  In addition, Nefyodov considers it necessary to update the customs infrastructure to speed up the processing of export-import operations.  Another major development of the outgoing week was a new wave of forex deregulation. On Monday, July 1, the National Bank canceled a number of administrative restrictions that created inconvenience to Ukrainian companies, foreign investors, and diplomatic missions.  The regulator has canceled the cap on financing foreign representative offices and separate divisions of companies. Previously, there was a general limit on investing abroad for businesses at EUR 2 million per year. At the same time, to minimize the risks of unproductive outflow of capital, the National Bank ordered that banks receive detailed estimates from companies and other documents with a justification that these transactions are really necessary. Also, this easing will not apply to transactions on transfering funds to the aggressor or occupier states, offshore zones, and countries violating FATF recommendations.  In addition, the regulator simplified the reinvestment of foreign investors' income from transactions with Ukrainian securities, by allowing the funds received on securities in a foreign depositary bank to be transferred from the correspondent account of this institution to its account in Ukraine. The NBU has expanded the list of transactions that are allowed to be conducted in Ukraine in foreign currency, supplementing it with operations between financial institutions and the Cabinet of Ministers in the framework of international agreements on credits, grants, and loans.  Also in the first week of July, the State Fiscal Service made another gift to businesses by granting 239 Ukrainian enterprises the status of authorized exporter, which will allow them to export goods to the EU under simplified conditions. At the same time, the State Fiscal Service of Ukraine extended the term for granting by customs of the said status to the exporting enterprises from thirty to ninety calendar days from the date of receipt of the corresponding application.  Incidentally, in the outgoing week, the European Commission reported that over the past twelve months, Ukraine entered the TOP 3 of largest agricultural suppliers to the EU, having delivered such goods worth almost EUR 6.3 billion. On year, imports of agriproducts from Ukraine grew by EUR 0.8 billion, or 14%.  Week-start will be important with regard to Ukraine's movement toward Europe as the Ukraine-EU summit will be held in Kyiv, in which all key leaders of the European Union will take part. In addition, in the second week of July, the Ukrainian parliament will continue its work in a session mode and may adopt a number of important laws, while the State Statistics Service will report on the inflation rate for the first summer month.


unian--2019-11-11--Bundestag's amendment would ruin EU Energy Market Security – experts

The coalition was confident it would send other EU member states a signal to quit resisting the construction of the gas pipeline and redistribution of the natural gas supplies in Europe.  The adoption of the amendments to the Gas Directive by the German Bundestag would result in destruction of the European gas market regulation system and the European energy security as such, experts say.  Such actions could make access to gas supplies hostage to political influence of Russia and Germany, the IGTDS think tank reports.  With the help of a coalition in the German parliament, the Kremlin succeeded in breaking down the unity of the European community in the matter of diversifying gas supplies and preventing monopolization of the European gas market.  Bundestag recently attempted to pass amendments to the law on ratification of the EU Gas Directive – the move that would play into Moscow's hands. The changes concerned application of European standards to gas pipelines laid from third countries, including Nord Stream 2.  The updated Gas Directive, whis is part of the EU Third Energy Package, requires that the same company shall not sell and transport fuel at the same time; third companies shall have access to the pipeline; competitive transit tariffs shall be set by the recipient; full transparency shall be provided; and the rules shall not apply to pipelines built before May 23, 2019. So, Nord Stream 2 does not fall into this category.  With the updated document, Brussels tried to protect itself from Gazprom's monopoly in Europe.  As Germany's Bild reported earlier, just two days before the vote on the document's ratification, the ruling coalition in Bundestag, represented by the CDU/CSU Angela Merkel and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) removed Nord Stream 2 from under scope of the Gas Directive by dropping from the bill a time framework of May 23, 2019.  The amended text "gives privileged status to existing investments in order to protect legitimate expectations."  The coalition was confident that the said wording would send other EU member states a signal to quit resisting the construction of the gas pipeline and redistribution of the natural gas supplies in Europe.  German amendments to the EU Gas Directive on New Nord Stream 2 are in conflict with a number of European goals and regulations.  Read alsoNord Stream 2 poses major threat to environment in Baltic Sea over WW2-era chemical munitions – experts  Changes in the Gas Directive, the experts stress, would undermine EU goals to secure the energy supply by diversifying imports. They would increase risks of Europe repeating its previous negative experiences with Russia, which in 2006 and 2009 suspended gas transit via Ukraine over pricing disputes.  The Nord Stream 2 would be of most benefit to Russia and Germany, while other suppliers and transit states would face tougher competition.  Germany would get direct supplies of cheap Russian gas and become its main distributor across most of Europe. In fact, Berlin gets an opportunity to copy Russian policy of influence on EU gas importers.  Also the amendments are in conflict with the EU's climate targets and the commitments of the Paris Agreement, since Russia uses EU money paid for gas to invest in new infrastructure for production of fossil fuels.  German MEP Rebecca Harms says the European bloc will fail to achieve decarbonization of economies and meet the obligations of the Paris Climate Agreement if it "continues to develop and pay for this huge fossil fuel infrastructure."  By supporting the pipeline project with amendments to the EU Gas Directive, Germany is going against the will of the European Commission and the European Parliament, the experts say. The German government is allowing a major rift between EU member state to fester at a time when the EU needs cohesion more than ever.  Nord Stream 2 doesn't diversify the EU energy as Russia is already the main supplier of Europe, while the new pipe would have most routes amassed in the Baltic corridor.  The European Political Strategy Centre, the European Commission's in-house think tank, stated that "Nord Stream 2, seen from a common EU perspective, is a project with neither economic rationale nor political backing". Nord Stream 2 threatens to plunge the Central Eastern European states back into a pre-2004 market of greater supply security risk and greater Russian leverage in their markets.  Read alsoPoland's anti-monopoly body says to impose big fine over Nord Stream 2 – media  Enabling Russia to bypass and reduce gas flows via Ukraine – which relies on the lucrative transit fees – could allow Moscow to once again use energy as a lever to exert political pressure across the region.  Russia and Germany are the main beneficiaries and supporters of the Nord Stream 2 project. Northeast Europe, namely, Poland, Ukraine, Czech Republic and Slovakia oppose the pipe amid the imminent loss of their advantages as transit countries.  Central and South Europe fear that the construction will result in the shutdown of the Ukrainian route, which would lead to a shortage of cheap Russian gas in the region. Network flows show, that even if Nord Stream 2 would provide significantly cheaper gas, the Eastern part of Europe will never feel its benefits.  A way to maintain solidarity would be to introduce a compensation scheme, the experts suggest.


thenewyorktimes--2019-09-16--3 From JPMorgan Accused in Scheme to Game Precious Metals Market

JPMorgan declined to comment. In public filings, the bank has said that it is cooperating with the Justice Department’s investigations related to “trading practices in the metals markets.” The bank has also said it faces a federal class-action suit in which it is accused of illegally monopolizing the silver futures market.  While Monday’s indictment could be a prelude to additional charges, the federal government was not successful in one recent case to crack down on spoofing. Last April, prosecutors in Connecticut charged Andre Flotron, a former trader at UBS, with manipulating precious metals markets by offering and then quickly canceling offers to buy and sell contracts before they could be accepted. At the time, the government said that Mr. Flotron’s behavior reflected a “systemic problem” in the market, but a jury acquitted the former trader.  Mr. Benczkowski said that the alleged conduct in Monday’s indictment was more sprawling than that in the case against Mr. Flotron, and that the JPMorgan indictment was built on data analysis and the testimony of a number of cooperating witnesses, at least one of whom described how the defendants carried out the scheme.  The government said Mr. Jordan was engaging in illegal trading behavior before 2008, then helped create a large-scale effort to game the precious metals market with the help of Mr. Smith, who joined the desk from Bear Stearns when it filed for bankruptcy and was acquired by JPMorgan in March 2008.  According to the indictment, Mr. Smith taught Mr. Jordan a new way of executing illegal fake trades: Spoofing could be more easily concealed if traders quickly layered a series of fake orders rather than placing one large order. The government said that new style of illegal trading “took hold on the precious metals desk” at JPMorgan and was adopted by other traders, including Mr. Nowak and three unidentified co-conspirators.  In one electronic message exchange captured by federal investigators, one cooperating witness — Christian Trunz, who had also joined the desk from Bear Stearns — explained to an unnamed co-conspirator that a large bid coming into the market was Mr. Smith “bidding up on the futures.” Mr. Trunz has pleaded guilty and awaits sentencing.


activistpost--2019-04-02--Relative Strength Ratios in Metals Markets Hit Rare Extremes

It’s possible last week’s cascading selling rout in palladium ended its multi-year bull market. The formerly white-hot metal lost more than $200/oz (but is beginning to rebound).  For now, however, palladium prices remain in a long-term uptrend above the bullishly aligned 20-week and 50-week moving averages – and physical supply remains tight.  Regardless of whether the palladium market recovers to new highs in the weeks ahead, it is quite possible that it has peaked in relative strength terms versus its sister metal platinum.  A few days ago, platinum traded at a historically large discount of almost 50% versus palladium. That discount narrowed considerably last week with platinum managing to post a slight gain in dollar terms.  Another relative strength extreme that may be near a turning point is gold trading at 85 times the price of silver.  The gold:silver ratio ran up to its highest level since the early 1990s in last week’s trading, rendering silver a potential once-in-a-generation bargain opportunity among the money metals.  Silver is also deeply discounted versus the stock market. Last September, silver sunk to a 15-year low versus the S&P 500.  The tremendous strength in equities and bonds in the first quarter of 2019 makes silver once again stand out as extremely undervalued versus financial assets. (Browse silver products here.)  Stefan Gleason is President of Money Metals Exchange, a precious metals dealer recently named “Best in the USA” by an independent global ratings group. A graduate of the University of Florida, Gleason is a seasoned business leader, investor, political strategist, and grassroots activist. Gleason has frequently appeared on national television networks such as CNN, FoxNews, and CNBC and in hundreds of publications such as the Wall Street Journal, TheStreet.com, and Seeking Alpha.


activistpost--2019-08-07--MARKET PLUNGES Metals SKYROCKET

MARKET PLUNGES: Metals SKYROCKET!

We Bring You This Critical Alert, Contributed By CrushTheStreet.com and Their Editor, Kenneth Ameduri, Who I regard as an expert on investing in these critical times.  Just as soon as retail investors thought it was safe to go back into the markets, it looks like buy-the-dip has finally stopped working – unless you’re buying the dip in precious metals,which is working out quite nicely. But if you’re holding the Dow, Nasdaq, or S&P 500 right now, the dip is only getting deeper as geopolitical turmoil holds the markets in its uncompromising grip.  If you are reluctant to turn on the TV and listen to the talking heads on CNBC to find out what is happening in the markets that is violently rattling the markets, I’ll save you the hassle and give it to you here.  We’re witnessing a reckoning in our markets that’s revealing itself in global political warfare…  It started late on Sunday as Asian markets tumbled amid fresh developments in the U.S.-China trade war: China asked state-owned companies to suspend American agricultural imports as a retaliatory move against President Trump’s announcement last week that the U.S. would impose a 10% tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese imports.  Trump’s new round of tariffs rocked and roiled the American markets last week, with the S&P 500 and Dow falling 3%, its second-biggest weekly drop of 2019. I recall seeing Friday-night social media pundits declaring that buy-the-dip would work on Monday, as they’ve become accustomed to the Plunge Protection Team engineering a stick save every time the stock market goes down for a couple of days.  But it’s not working this time, as Monday put the stock market into the red once again in response to Asia’s overnight market decline. Compounding this is another war going on between the U.S. and China: a currency war, or at least that’s how it’s being construed by President Trump:  So now it’s a race to the bottom for the Yuan, which fell (or was pushed) below 7 to the dollar on Monday, marking an 11-year low for the Chinese currency. No one ought to be surprised if President Trump, perceiving this as a deliberate move by the Chinese to weaken their currency artificially, reacts with his own efforts to suppress the U.S. dollar.  Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield absolutely vomited to 1.75% during Monday’s trading session, proving once again what I’ve been saying for years: central banks aren’t in the business of helping retirees and investors get a decent yield they can live on. Investing in the government has never been a good idea – and as you can see, buying bonds nowadays is a low-yield, high-risk proposition.  Hard assets, on the other hand, are benefiting from the currency devaluation war, Treasury-yield suppression, and the ramp-up of international tensions. It’s a perfect storm that’s 100% gold-bullish, and while I’ve been recommending a long gold position for many months now, it’s still a pleasant surprise to wake up and see gold in the green:  Silver is also up, along with platinum and palladium; no matter which precious metals you’re holding, today is a very good day and I expect things to only get better. And if you have positions in gold and silver miners like I do, then your portfolio is most likely seeing astounding gains today, as the miners tend to magnify the gains in precious metals.  On June 18th, I put out a piece about gold recovering and the investment community still being in denial. I profiled Barrick Gold (CAD: ABX & US: GOLD) in that email as a safer play because of the billion-dollar giant it already is, and here we are today, just a little over one month later and up 30% on this company alone. Again, aside from just owning physical gold, this is a “safer” way to expose yourself to gold and have the upside that comes from owning the miners.  Having said that, I tend to think this bull market is just starting to ramp up…  Besides, these metals and miners positions will provide a solid hedge against further international turmoil. This isn’t the first time we’ve witnessed an escalation in trade tensions, granted, but there’s a difference this time around: approximately two-thirds of the goods being tariffed in this round are  , which will result in a pronounced impact on the American economy.


businessinsider--2019-07-08--A major American steelmaker has lost 70 of its market value since Trump slapped steep tariffs on th

A major American steelmaker has lost 70% of its market value since Trump slapped steep tariffs on the metal last year

President Donald Trump has sought to make the US steel industry more competitive through protectionism, but tariffs levied last year have accelerated the decline of some of its largest players.  Bloomberg reported Sunday evening that a 25% tariff on imports of the metal has accelerated the decline of some of the mills Trump vowed to protect. The metal titan US Steel has lost $5.5 billion, or roughly 70%, in market value and idled two furnaces since the president announced the move in March 2018 on national security grounds.  US Steel had originally emerged as a rare darling of protectionist policies, with tariffs expected to increase US output and metal industry jobs. Trump last summer visited one mill in Illinois, where US Steel had originally planned to boost production as tariffs restricted foreign access to the market.  "The days of plundering American jobs and wealth — those days are over," he asserted to the Granite City crowd.  But the increase in production came at the same time that demand began to cool, eventually sending steel prices sharply lower. Growth in the US and elsewhere is expected to continue to fall in the coming months, as stimulus measures fade and trade tensions persist.  The divide created a complicated scenario for companies like US Steel, according to Bloomberg. That's because they use older and more costly equipment than companies such as Nucor, which run cheaper furnaces that can better compete in the new market.  "Are some companies going to suffer? Absolutely," Nucor Chief Executive Officer John Ferriola told Bloomberg in an interview, adding that Trump's actions sped up expected changes in the industry. "We'll see some capacity go away, I'm sure of it."  Bipartisan lawmakers and businesses have coalesced behind the need to address trade practices they say undermine American businesses. Some industry groups have stood by the use of blanket tariffs as a tool to win fairer trade agreements, while others argued they would ultimately risk pain for American businesses and consumers.  US Steel and Nucor did not immediately respond to emails requesting comment.  Markets Insider is looking for a panel of millennial investors. If you're active in the markets, CLICK HERE to sign up.


eveningstandard--2019-05-29--Markets tumble on China vow to choke vital US metal supply

The trade war between China and the US escalated dramatically on Wednesday when Beijing threatened to cut exports of rare metals that are vital to the American technology, car and defence industries.  That would come in revenge for President Donald Trump blacklisting phones giant Huawei and cutting off the supply of the computer chips that it needs to make its products.  Markets took fright on the news, with traders fearing that the trade war is spinning out of control.  Shares tumbled across Europe. In London, the FTSE 100 fell more than 1%, losing 94.90 points at 7174.05.  China provides around 80% of the US’s rare earth supplies such as cobalt, which is needed to make jet engines. There are 17 rare earth chemical elements used in everything from electronics to military equipment to magnets.  Fiona Cincotta at City Index said: “The potential tightening of China’s exports would not only cause the cost of specialty metals in the US to spike but could actively impede certain production activity. From an investment point of view though, this has the potential to boost the share price of non-Chinese rare earth producers.”  Economists are worried that the trade war between the two largest economies will hit growth across the globe.  An editorial in the People’s Daily, the official paper of China’s ruling Communist Party, was headlined: “United States, don’t underestimate China’s ability to strike back.”  The piece said: “Will rare earths become a counter-weapon for China to hit back against the pressure the United States has put on for no reason at all? The answer is no mystery.  “Undoubtedly, the US side wants to use the products made by China’s exported rare earths to counter and suppress China’s development. The Chinese people will never accept this!” the newspaper added.  Huawei said today that the move to put it on a trade black list “sets a dangerous precedent” that will harm billions of consumers. It has launched a legal challenge against the ban.  Huawei’s lawyer Song Liuping said: “The US government has provided no evidence to show that Huawei is a security threat. There is no gun, no smoke. Only speculation.”  America could look to source rare earth metals from Australia or Africa.


sottnet--2019-09-17--Justice Department charges three traders in precious metal market manipulation scheme

The scheme is similar to those documented in "Flash Boys," a 2014 book by nonfiction author Michael Lewis.Federal prosecutors on Monday charged three JP Morgan Chase traders with manipulating the precious metals futures market in a scheme that cost investors tens of millions.New York FBI official William F. Sweeney said the men accused in the eight-year scheme traded gold, silver, platinum and palladium in a way that hurt "the natural balance of supply-and-demand."Michael Nowak, who led the precious metals trading desk at "Bank A" — an institution the Department of Justice has previously identified as JP Morgan — was arrested along with fellow traders Christopher Jordan and Gregg Smith.The scheme is similar to those documented in "Flash Boys," a 2014 book by nonfiction author Michael Lewis. The book ignited a firestorm on Wall Street over the practices of high-speed trading and "spoofing," where traders try to send in fictitious buy orders.Within a second of selling at the higher price, they would cancel their fake buy orders, duping the market into believing there was extra demand."The defendants and others allegedly engaged in a massive, multiyear scheme to manipulate the market for precious metals futures contracts and defraud market participants," said Assistant Attorney General Brian A. Benczkowski."These charges should leave no doubt that the Department is committed to prosecuting those who undermine the investing public's trust in the integrity of our commodities markets," he added.In a statement, attorneys for Nowak said it was "truly regrettable that the DOJ decided to go forward with a prosecution" of their client, adding that Nowak "has done nothing wrong.""We look forward to representing him at trial and expect him to be fully exonerated, said the attorneys, David Meister and Jocelyn Strauber.Jamie MacDonald, who heads enforcement for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said, the scheme "went unchecked for 8 years and involved thousands of transactions."In a call with reporters Monday, Benczkowski said the Justice Department would continue to use data to develop cases, as they have with probes related to the opioid crisis."It is fair to say that the data we have in our possession, directed us towards the trading activity of these particular traders," Benczkowski said.The indictment notes the scheme was not foolproof, with the traders sometimes not cancelling the orders fast enough.Nowak, 45, Jordan, 47, and Smith, 55, were joined by traders John Edmonds, Christian Trunz and Corey Flaum, also of JP Morgan, who had already pleaded guilty in the case. Trunz has a cooperation agreement with federal prosecutors.Smith, Trunz and Flaum came to JP Morgan by way of the defunct investment bank Bear Stearns as part of JP Morgan's buyout of the failed investment bank at the beginning of the 2008 financial crisis.


activistpost--2019-08-28--Global Gold Industry Hit By Forgery Crisis As Fake Kilobars Flood The Physical Market

Global Gold Industry Hit By “Forgery Crisis” As Fake Kilobars Flood The Physical Market

Gold bars that are being fraudulently stamped with the logos of major refineries are being inserted into the global market to help launder or smuggle illegal gold, Reuters reports. The fakes, which are difficult to detect, have become an ideal way for narcotics dealers or warlords to move money.  Over the last three years, bars worth at least $50 million that were fraudulently stamped with Swiss refinery logos have been identified by all four of Switzerland’s leading gold refiners. They were also found in the physical gold vault of J.P. Morgan & Chase, one of the key banks at the heart of the market in gold bullion (and which, as we first reported back in 2013, is located just across the NY Fed’s own gold vault).  At least 1,000 of the bars have been found, at a standard size known as a kilobar. Each kilobar, about the size of a cell phone, is worth about $50,000 at today’s prices. It marks a small slice of the gold industry, which produces between 2 million and 2.5 million bars per year, but the forgeries are sophisticated, so many more may have gone undetected.  Michael Mesaric, CEO of refinery Valcambi said: “The latest fake bars … are highly professionally done. Maybe a couple of thousand have been found, but the likelihood is that there are way, way, way more still in circulation. And it still exists, and it still works.”  Fake gold bars, which are generally cheaper metal plated with gold, are relatively common in the industry and easy to detect. But these new types of counterfeit bars are more difficult to detect because the gold is real and has a very high purity, with only the markings faked.  Richard Hayes, chief executive of the Perth Mint in Australia said: “It’s a wonderful way of laundering conflict gold. The gold is genuine, but it’s not ethically sourced. They look completely genuine, they assay correctly, and they weigh correctly as well. The perfect appearance makes the bars highly effective. Because gold is completely fungible, you can bleed it into genuine production. It’s very, very hard to control.”  These fake branded bars are being used as a relatively new way to escape money laundering regulations.  The forgeries could pose a problem not only for international refiners, but also for financiers and regulators who are trying to curb the world of illegal bullion. To be sure, skyrocketing gold prices won’t help temper back the forgeries. Rising gold prices have, in the past, also triggered a boom in informal and illegal mining that began in the mid-2000s.  Without the stamp of a major refinery, this type of gold is forced into underground networks and sometimes has to be priced at a discount. By stamping these gold bars with the logos of major brands, metal that has been mined in places like Africa, Venezuela or North Korea can be easily slipped into the market and can be used to channel funds to criminals or sanctioned resumes.  As of now, it isn’t clear who’s making the bars, but executives and bankers both said that they think most of them originate in China, which happens to be the world’s largest gold producer and importer. The gold may have entered the market via dealers and trading houses in Hong Kong, Japan and Thailand. Once accepted by mainstream gold dealers, the gold quickly spreads into worldwide supply chains.  Word of these forged bars started to get around in the first half of 2017, when JP Morgan found out that its vaults contained at least two gold kilobars stamped with the same identification number.  JP Morgan declined to address questions from Reuters and instead said: “It’s our standard practice to immediately alert the appropriate authorities and refineries should we discover mismarked gold kilobars during routine checks and procedures. Fortunately, we have yet to have an incident resulting in a loss to the firm or a client.”  The Shanghai Gold Exchange, responsible for regulating the Chinese gold market stated that it has “established a thorough delivery and storage system. The process for gold (material) to enter the warehouse is strictly managed and in compliance with the regulations.”  The forged bars, when found, are returned to the refiner that sources them, and sometimes to authorities will impound them. Swiss customs said 655 forged bars were reported in 2017 and 2018 to local prosecutors in Ticino, an area bordering Italy.  The public prosecutor there confirmed that it had received three reports of gold bars with suspect serial numbers, but said that it couldn’t disclose more information. Executives said forged bars had also been reported in other countries.  Swiss bars are more susceptible to being pirated due to their global reach and recognition. Swiss refiners Valcambi, PAMP, Argor-Heraeus and Metalor, combined, process around 2,000-2,500 tons per year, which equates to about $100 billion in gold.


activistpost--2019-09-17--Oil Shock Will War Drums Inflation Fears Ignite Gold and Silver Markets

Oil Shock! Will War Drums, Inflation Fears Ignite Gold and Silver Markets?

Monday’s spike in crude oil prices could be a game changer – for geopolitics, for the economy, and for investors.  Normally it would be foolhardy to draw big, sweeping conclusions from a single day’s trading activity.  But in this case, it’s not just the fact that oil prices surged 13% to over $62/barrel. Or even the fact that more than 5% of the world’s oil producing capacity suddenly got taken offline.  The world can cope with volatility in the energy market. An increasingly volatile environment for all assets presents much greater challenges.  But few investors are positioned to cope with the rising risk of war in the Middle East. Few are prepared for the prospect of persistently higher energy prices and higher inflation. Even fewer are taking steps to insulate their portfolios from future black swan events.  Black swans by their nature are impossible to predict. No one saw a devastating drone strike on Saudi Arabian oil production facilities coming.  Delivering the biggest single blow in history to the global oil supply turned out to be surprisingly easy.  Unfortunately, it may be just as easy for terrorists or rogue states to target electrical grid infrastructure, nuclear power facilities, computer systems, or gatherings of world leaders. A single, crudely executed strike could not only inflict disproportionate damage to the global economy but also potentially trigger a full-scale war.  President Donald Trump says the United States is “locked and loaded,” ready to attack Iran for its alleged role in shuttering the Saudis’ oil facilities.  Republican Senator Lindsey Graham is suggesting we bomb Iranian oil refineries in retaliation – a move that could trigger another oil price spike and possibly provoke a Russian response.  Things have escalated rapidly since President Trump controversially planned – then cancelled – a meeting with the Taliban last week. He then proceeded to fire his national security advisor, John Bolton, who had been pushing for war with Iran.  That upset some of the war hawks on Capitol Hill. But the sudden attack on our putative ally Saudi oil machinery gives them one of their best opportunities to push Trump toward war.  How can investors best position for rising risk factors in heretofore sanguine markets?  Monday’s dramatic market moves offer some guidance. Energy stocks surged. Gold and silver gained 0.8% and 2.5%, respectively, on safe-haven buying.  The major stock market averages fell, but only modestly. There was no indication of panic selling taking hold.  Of course, the government’s Plunge Protection Team had the weekend to get circuit breakers on the exchanges in place. President Trump also vowed the U.S. would stand ready to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserves if necessary to boost oil supplies.  Investors appear to still be largely complacent when it comes to the threat of future oil spikes.  For the past few years the conventional wisdom has been that oil supplies are plentiful and therefore prices should remain low. But those low prices reflected, to some extent, complacency about geopolitical risks.  Low oil prices have wrecked many marginal producers. Frackers and deep-sea drillers have been practically obliterated during a brutal bear market for the oil and gas sector that extended into this summer. It could leave a legacy of severe under-investment in oil production capacity.  The last five recessions were each preceded by a run-up in crude prices of at least a 90%, according to DataTrek Research. A one-day spike won’t trigger a recession, but we are very late into the economic cycle where the energy sector typically assumes leadership, before the economy and stock market roll over.  A surge in oil prices would put the Federal Reserve in a tough position. Rising energy costs hurt consumers and raise the odds of a recession. But if the Fed tries to help the economy by stimulating, it risks pushing energy prices, and price inflation more broadly, even higher.  If the Fed cuts rates again this week as expected, it will be betting that the oil spike is transitory and that inflationary pressures remain well contained.


activistpost--2019-09-21--Goldman Sachs Has Just Issued An Ominous Warning About Stock Market Chaos In October

Are we about to see U.S. financial markets go crazy?  That is what Goldman Sachs seems to think, and it certainly wouldn’t be the first time that great financial chaos has been unleashed during the month of October.  When the stock market crashed in October 1929, it started the worst economic depression that we have ever witnessed.  In October 1987, the largest single-day percentage decline in U.S. stock market history rocked the entire planet.  And the nightmarish events of October 2008 set the stage for a “Great Recession” that we still haven’t fully recovered from.  So could it be possible that something similar may happen in October 2019?  According to CNBC, Goldman Sachs is warning that the stock market could soon “go crazy again”…  For investors taking a breather from the chaos in August, buckle up as the market is about to go crazy again, Goldman Sachs warned. Wall Street is now inches away from reclaiming its record highs, but a rockier ride could be around the corner as stock volatility has been 25% higher in October on average since 1928, according to Goldman. Big price swings have been seen in each major stock benchmark and sector in October over the past 30 years, with technology and health care being the most volatile groups, Goldman said.  Goldman derivatives strategist John Marshall is the man behind this new warning, and he believes that there are some fundamental reasons why the month of October is often so volatile…  And even though October hasn’t arrived yet, we are already starting to see some things that we haven’t witnessed since the last financial crisis.  For example, the Federal Reserve had not intervened in the repo market since 2008, but this week the liquidity crunch was so bad that the Fed felt forced to conduct emergency overnight repurchase agreement operations on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  And then on Friday the Fed announced that it will continue to conduct emergency interventions “on a daily basis for the next three weeks”…  The New York Federal Reserve Bank said Friday it will inject billions into the US financial plumbing on a daily basis for the next three weeks in an effort to prevent a spike in short-term interest rates. The Fed will offer up to $75 billion a day in repurchase agreements — exchanging secure assets for cash for very short periods — through October 10, it said in a statement. In addition, it will offer three 14-day “repo” operations of at least $30 billion each.  In essence, the “plumbing” of our financial system has gotten all jammed up, and calling out Roto-Rooter is simply not going to get the job done.  Of course Fed officials are trying to assure us that this is no big deal and that they have everything under control.  But if all this is no big deal, why haven’t they had to conduct such emergency interventions for the last 11 years?  And this comes at a time when the deterioration of the U.S. economy appears to be accelerating.  In fact, on Friday St. Louis Fed President James Bullard publicly admitted that the U.S. manufacturing industry appears to already be in a recession…  That is a stunning admission, because normally Fed officials try very hard to maintain the narrative that everything is wonderful because they are doing such a great job of manipulating the economy.  The American people as a whole are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the economy as well, and Gallup just released some very alarming numbers…  Americans’ confidence in the economy has become less rosy this month as Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index fell to +17 from August’s +24 reading, marking the lowest level since the government shutdown ended in January. At the same time, the public is evenly divided over the likelihood of a recession in the next year. The current expectation of a recession is nine points higher than it was in October 2007, just two months before the Great Recession began but slightly below a February 2001 reading, one month before that eight-month-long recession.


activistpost--2019-11-15--DOJ Asked to Examine New Systemic Risk in Gold & Silver Markets

Impeachment circus lows and stock market highs dominated the news cycle this week, and precious metals are quietly attempting a recovery.  Bulls still have some work to do to repair the technical damage inflicted on both metals during last week’s selling. Gold and silver still face some overhead resistance and the potential for concentrated short selling by financial institutions in the futures markets.  Significant price bottoms are usually reached after the commercial sellers force the speculative longs to capitulate. We certainly saw some of that last week. Whether there is one final washout ahead remains to be seen.  Futures market manipulation of precious metals prices remains an obstacle to free and fair price discovery. Despite some recent prosecutions involving price rigging by banks, the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee believes the rabbit hole goes much deeper.  The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee reported this week that U.S. Representative Alex Mooney of West Virginia is pushing Attorney General Bill Barr to pursue additional investigations of price rigging in the futures markets. Mooney raises concern in particular about a mechanism for settling metals contracts called “exchange for physicals.” He notes this may pose “some danger of a systemic issue.”  Both Mooney and GATA have repeatedly raised questions with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that have gone unanswered. Perhaps Attorney General Barr’s office will be more responsive to credible allegations of criminal manipulation in the precious metals markets.  In the meantime, metals investors will have to be prepared for more artificially induced price volatility in their holdings. The best way to beat the paper manipulators long term is to avoid playing in their rigged casino and keep accumulating precious metals in physical form. The supply and demand fundamentals of the physical market will ultimately win out and force their hand.  Futures contracts, exchange-traded funds, and other derivative products tied to gold and silver prices are no substitute for the real thing. Only the actual metal is a time-tested store of value and hedge against financial turmoil including the risk of an inflation outbreak.  Speaking of inflation, on Wednesday the Labor Department reported that U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected in October. The consumer price index increased 0.4% last month as households faced higher costs for food, energy, healthcare, and a range of other goods. It was the largest monthly CPI gain since March.  Many economists believe the CPI actually understates real-world inflation. The Federal Reserve has other preferred gauges for estimating inflation, but they all have their flaws as well.  Fed Chairman Jerome Powell talks over and over again about pursuing a “symmetrical” 2% inflation target. But this number is completely arbitrary and is found nowhere in the central bank’s original “stable prices” mandate.  Prospective Federal Reserve Board nominee Judy Shelton is skeptical of the prevailing thinking at the Fed on inflation. Shelton was floated by President Donald Trump as a Fed member several months ago and is still waiting for an opportunity to be confirmed by the Senate.  She will have a difficult time given her unorthodox but very common sense views on things like true price stability. She appeared on CNBC this week and offered these thoughts:  Judy Shelton: There are so many indices for evaluating inflation that right away, it’s confusing. Of course, for me, a dependable dollar wouldn’t lose value at all. Instead, we have this regimented built in 2% obsolescence and I would rather, and I think Paul Volcker has expressed this as well, not have 2% because that very easily can become 4%. I’ve seen some economists saying, well that would make life a lot easier for central bankers. They would have more room to maneuver, but it makes life infinitely more complicated for the people who have to use money. I’m leery that the Fed now talks about symmetrical inflation. If they ever do hit their target, it now sounds like they’re willing to go above that amount for a non-determined period of time so that somehow they balance out and say, well, over the long run we hit 2%. At least, people are not listing inflation as their primary concern these days, but still it’s a very interesting intellectual challenge to discuss what is the right rate of inflation. I guess I prefer zero.  Sound money advocates would certainly welcome Shelton’s perspective having a seat at the Fed’s policy making table. She has previously expressed support for reintroducing gold into the monetary system as a way of tethering the value of the dollar to something solid.  But for now, the monetary system isn’t tethered to anything except the unlimited demand by bankers and politicians for new dollars to be created out of thin air.  Mike Gleason is a Director with Money Metals Exchange, a national precious metals dealer with over 50,000 customers. Gleason is a hard money advocate and a strong proponent of personal liberty, limited government and the Austrian School of Economics. A graduate of the University of Florida, Gleason has extensive experience in management, sales and logistics as well as precious metals investing. He also puts his longtime broadcasting background to good use, hosting a weekly precious metals podcast since 2011, a program listened to by tens of thousands each week.  Subscribe to Activist Post for truth, peace, and freedom news. Become an Activist Post Patron for as little as $1 per month at Patreon. Follow us on SoMee, Flote, Minds, Twitter, and Steemit.  Provide, Protect and Profit from what’s coming! Get a free issue of Counter Markets today.


fortune--2019-01-11--Goldman Sachs Says Markets Indicate a 50 Chance of a Recession

Goldman Sachs Says Markets Indicate a 50% Chance of a Recession

Confidence in continued economic growth has been waning. A huge majority of chief financial officers around the world say a recession will happen by the end of 2020. Most voters think one will hit by the end of this year.  Now the Goldman Sachs economic research team says that the market shows a roughly 50% chance of a recession over the next year, according to Axios.  Goldman Sachs looked at two different measures: the yield curve slope and credit spreads. The former refers to a graph of government bond interest rates versus the years attaining maturity requires. In a growing economy, interest rates are higher the longer the investment because investors have confidence in the future. A frequent sign of a recession is the inversion of the slope, when investors are uncertain about the future, so are less willing to bet on it.  Credit spreads compare the interest paid by government bonds, which are considered the safest. Corporate bonds, which are riskier, of the same maturity have to offer higher interest rates. As a recession approaches, credit spreads tend to expand, as investors are more worried about companies defaulting on their debt.  However, despite the signs, Goldman Sachs assumes the indicators are wrong and that “recession risk remains fairly low, in the neighborhood of 15% over the next year.” The bank has predicted that the S&P 500 will finish 2019 at 3,000, up from the current value just below 2,600.