sputnik--2019-09-07--True US Unemployment Rate Underestimated Grossly by Labor Department Numbers

True US Unemployment Rate ‘Underestimated Grossly’ by Labor Department Numbers

A jobs report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics published Friday revealed that job growth slowed down in August: only 130,000 new jobs were added to the economy compared to 159,000 in July. The employment rate also remained at 3.7% in August, which is the lowest rate since December 1969.  However, Dr. Jack Rasmus, a professor of economics at Saint Mary's College of California and blogger at jackrasmus.com, told Radio Sputnik’s Loud & Clear that the true unemployment rate is actually between 10% and 12%.  The 3.7% number provided by the US Department of Labor is called the U-3 unemployment rate, which only takes into account “full-time employment.” What the Department of Labor refers to as the U-6 unemployment rate includes discouraged workers who gave up looking for jobs and part-time workers looking for full-time employment.  “Several months ago, we had an even bigger job creation decline. What this shows now - you got another weakening, and in-between you had another boosting of jobs - is that jobs are a lagging indicator. In other words, it’s not the first thing that goes down when you have a recession; it’s usually lagged by six months sometimes. But what we’re seeing is evidence it’s lagging,” Rasmus told hosts John Kiriakou and Brian Becker.  “And by the way, the 3.7% unemployment rate is a joke. That unemployment rate is a joke. It’s called the U-3 unemployment rate, and it's only the unemployment rate for full-time workers, you see,” he said.  “It doesn’t count the 60 million people who are part-time, temporary or who are discouraged, or who are part of what is called the ‘missing labor force,’ and it doesn’t answer the question [as to] why the labor force participation rate - in other words, those who have entered the economy - has collapsed by millions, maybe 5 or 6 million, since the 2008 recession. Where are those people going?” Rasmus explained.  According to Rasmus, the U-6 unemployment rate, which is a true reflection of employment, also includes the “missing labor force,” those who haven’t searched for a job in the past year. In addition, the U-6 rate includes those who are involuntarily part-time employed, meaning they would like to have a full-time job, but haven’t yet found one. The U-3 rate includes neither of those groups.  “You see, the problem with US unemployment rate is that it’s calculated by: ‘You’re out of work and looking for [a job] in the last four weeks.’ If you're not looking, if you’re discouraged, and if you haven't looked for a number of months, you’re not even calculated in the unemployment rate,” Rasmus explained.  “Most of the job creation has been service jobs that are part-time and temp,” Rasmus added, referring to “temp” or “temporary” jobs that last for a short period of time.  “And that’s quoted as ‘employed person.’ They’re [the US Department of Labor] adding people with second or third part-time jobs. And I don’t think the Labor Department is picking up those second and third part-time jobs. They’re only looking at part-time jobs that [are] primary. So the involuntary employed number, which is part of the U-6 unemployment rate … is underestimated grossly.”  Rasmus explained that the government does a phone survey to obtain statistics for job reports. “The undocumented workers and the guys working in the underground economy, they’re not answering any phones,” he said. “In short, it's about 10-12% unemployment out there.”


telesurtv--2019-09-20--Argentinas Unemployment Highest in 14 Years

Argentina's Unemployment Highest in 14 Years

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thedailycaller--2019-01-15--FACT CHECK Does Alaska Have The Highest Unemployment Rate In The Country

FACT CHECK: Does Alaska Have The Highest Unemployment Rate In The Country?

Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski claimed on the Senate floor Friday that Alaska has the highest unemployment rate in the country.  “I come from a state where we’ve got the highest unemployment rate in the country right now,” said Murkowski.  Alaska had an unemployment rate of 6.3 percent in November, the highest of any state, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Murkowski and a number of other senators took to the Senate floor Friday to discuss the partial government shutdown. She claimed that due to her state’s high unemployment rate, those furloughed or working without pay in Alaska will not be able to easily get a temporary, second job in the interim.  The New York Times found that Alaska has the most federal employees affected by the shutdown per capita in the country.  “We are more reliant on the federal government for our economy than most states are,” Neal Fried, an economist at the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, told The Daily Caller News Foundation.  Alaska did have the highest rate of unemployment in the country at 6.3 percent as of November – the latest month for which data is available – followed by the District of Columbia, which had an unemployment rate of 5.6 percent. The national average was 3.7 percent that month, with Hawaii and Iowa tied for the lowest rate at 2.4 percent.  While Alaska’s unemployment rate is the highest in the country, it has fallen from 7.3 percent in January 2018. Unemployment rates peaked at 8 percent from August 2009 to April 2010.  “One of the biggest reasons we tend to have higher unemployment than the rest of the country is because we’re still the most seasonal economy in the nation,” said Fried. “Seasonality can generate a lot of unemployment as a lot of people are only working part of the year.”  Fried also noted that high unemployment rates among some of Alaska’s more isolated, rural towns and villages were partially responsible.  Oil prices deeply affect Alaska’s economy and contribute to fluctuations in the state’s unemployment rate. The oil and gas industry is by far the largest in Alaska, with nearly 85 percent of Alaska’s state budget coming from oil revenue at one point. When oil prices plunged in recent years, Alaska fell into a recession and unemployment rose. Higher oil prices since then have helped to bring the unemployment rate back down.  Outside of oil and gas, tourism and fishing are also important Alaskan industries.  Content created by The Daily Caller News Foundation is available without charge to any eligible news publisher that can provide a large audience. For licensing opportunities of our original content, please contact [email protected].


thedenverpost--2019-01-03--Hundreds of Colorado federal workers file for unemployment

DENVER – Nearly 300 federal workers in Colorado have filed for unemployment as the shutdown of the federal government continues for a 12th straight day.  The number jumped by 100 in the past two days, Colorado Department of Labor Public Relations Director Cher Haavind told Denver7 Wednesday.  Since the partial federal government shut down on Dec. 22, there have been a total of 1,803 Colorado unemployment claims filed.  The unemployment payouts are not funded by state or federal taxpayer money, Haavind said.


thedenverpost--2019-03-11--Colorados January unemployment rate highest since 2015

Colorado’s January unemployment rate highest since 2015

Colorado’s unemployment rate climbed to 3.7 percent in January, its highest level since August of 2015, according to an update Monday from the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment.  The state’s unemployment rate is up from 3.6 percent in December and 2.9 percent a year ago, but remains below the U.S. rate of 4 percent. Last year, the state’s unemployment rate averaged 3.3 percent, tied for 14th lowest with Massachusetts. Before that, Colorado had one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country.  Should people start to worry? Not necessarily, said Ryan Gedney, a senior labor economist with the state.  The unemployment rate can rise when people lose their jobs or employers cut back on adding jobs. But it can also go up when people are confident enough to voluntarily quit their jobs or to rejoin the labor pool.  Unemployment claims in Colorado last year were down from 2017, so it doesn’t appear that layoffs are driving the increase. And average weekly wages rose 5.2 percent, the biggest annual gain in records going back to 2009. That wouldn’t be the case in a crumbling labor market.  “It is a symptom of a healthy economy,” said Gedney. “We see an uptick in job leavers when the economy is strong. That seems to be the case in 2018.”  Employers in the state added 2,400 nonfarm jobs in January from December, split evenly between the private and public sectors, according to a payroll survey. Construction, education and health service and leisure and hospitality provided the largest gains for the month, while professional and business services and financial activities showed a monthly decline.  Colorado’s labor force increased by 6,400 last month, split between those who said they were employed and those who were looking for a job but didn’t have one, according to a separate household survey.  Over the year, the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased from 33.2 to 32.7 hours. Average hourly earnings increased from $28.21 to $30.18.  The department also completed a benchmark revision to square up the results for 2018. It showed a gain of 49,300 nonfarm jobs in Colorado last year, with 46,000 private sector jobs and 3,300 in government. That works out to a job growth rate of 2.4 percent, down from the 2.7 percent rate initially estimated.  Colorado’s economy has managed to grow jobs above 2 percent a year for the past seven years. If 2019 can keep pace, this expansion will match the prior record run from 1992 to 2000, according to the report.


theguardianuk--2019-03-19--UK unemployment falls to 44-year low despite Brexit fears

UK unemployment has dropped to the lowest level in more than 44 years despite mounting fears over Brexit, as employers across the country ramped up hiring at the fastest rate in more than three years.  The Office for National Statistics said Britain’s jobless rate fell to a fresh low of 3.9% in the three months to January, down from 4% a month ago, the lowest point since the start of 1975.  Companies increased their hiring activity to add another 222,000 people to the UK workforce, taking the overall number in work to a fresh record high of 32.7 million.  The surprise drop in the jobless rate came despite mounting concern that the chaos over Brexit in Westminster might have encouraged companies to freeze their hiring plans until they have greater clarity over the political situation.  John Philpott, the director of the Jobs Economist consultancy, said: “Nobody seems to have told the labour market about the mood of Brexit-related economic uncertainty which has gripped the UK since last autumn.  “These record-breaking jobs numbers seem extraordinary and suggest that only a recession-inducing hard Brexit is likely to have a noticeably negative impact on the UK’s employment situation.”  Analysts cautioned that the jobs figures are backward looking because they relate to the three-month period to January, while surveys have suggested employment levels have begun to drop in more recent months.  The Bank of England has also previously warned that firms might be opting to hire workers rather than making expensive investments in machinery and technology in the face of Brexit uncertainty. Workers tend to be easier to hire and fire, while major investments are costly to reverse. Business investment fell in every quarter last year, the first time since the last recession a decade ago.  The latest snapshot from the ONS also suggested that stronger wage rises are starting to come through for British workers with the aid of the shortest dole queues since the 1970s.  Average weekly earnings continued to rise at an annual rate of 3.4% in the three months to January, despite City economists’ expectations that pay growth would cool to 3.2%.  Official figures also showed record levels of jobs vacancies, with as many as 863,000 unfilled jobs.  Stephen Clarke, a senior economic analyst at the Resolution Foundation, said: “This encouraging jobs growth is benefiting women and those traditionally left out of the labour market. It is even starting to have a knock-on effect on still historically weak pay rises.  “This is crucial for driving a long overdue pay recovery for workers, but may be held back if firms’ reluctance to invest continues.”


theindependent--2019-01-31--Indian unemployment levels at 45-year high leaked figures reveal

Indian unemployment levels at 45-year high, leaked figures reveal

Unemployment in India has reached a 45-year high, according to leaked official jobs figures that the government had delayed publishing with just a few months to go until a general election.  With jobs creation one of the key pledges that delivered prime minister Narendra Modi to power in 2014, the report that the unemployment rate stands at 6.1 per cent – the highest since 1972-73 – could prove a damaging blow.  The figures, reported by the Business Standard, come after two senior officials in the National Statistical Commission quit their jobs over what they said was deliberate interference by government agencies to delay publication of the numbers.  The unemployment survey covers July 2017 to June 2018 and the results should have been published in December. Statistics ministry officials said the report was submitted on time, but that it was up to the government to decide when it should be released.  Official figures state that India’s GDP has grown by an impressive 7 per cent or more each year under Mr Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the highest rate of any major economy.  But the figures show new jobs are not keeping up with the pace. The Business Standard report said joblessness stood at 7.8 per cent in urban areas compared with 5.3 per cent in the countryside.  Amid growing public protests over jobs, critics have said the government’s claims of economic success have sounded increasingly hollow.  And the new figures are particularly significant as the first since Mr Modi’s decision in November 2016 to withdraw most of the country’s banknotes from circulation overnight. While millions of Indians were brought into the banking system for the first time, figures show demonetisation did little to claw back black money – the main expressed aim – while most experts say it hurt GDP.  The government declined to confirm or deny the report. Pravin Srivastava, India’s chief statistician, told Reuters: “We have not released the report. I do not want to comment on it.”  Earlier this week, acting chair of the National Statistical Commission PC Mohanan and a colleague resigned, with Mr Mohanan telling India Today the commission – which is supposed to provide oversight of official figures – was “being sidelined”.  The jobs figures “not being released … is one of the reasons [for quitting]”, he added. “We recommended [release] and sent it forward, but it’s still not on the website.”  The last report published by the statistics ministry had shown that the unemployment rate rose to 5.0 per cent in 2015-16 from 4.9 per cent in the previous year and 4.0 per cent in 2012-13.  Pronab Sen, a former chief statistician of India, said unemployment had been rising since 2012 but attempts to suppress the publication of data were not the answer.  “It will only create more suspicion about the intentions of the government,” he said.  Rahul Gandhi, the leader of the main opposition Congress party, said the figures exposed a “national disaster” on Mr Modi’s watch, who he referred to as “the Fuhrer”.  The BJP hit back on Twitter, comparing Mr Gandhi to “Mussolini’s shortsightedness” and saying that “EPFO’s real data shows sharp increase in jobs, created in just the last 15 months”. Economists have previously detailed why using numbers from the EPFO – the state retirement fund body – can be problematic.  The economy is currently top of the news agenda in India, with Mr Modi’s government set to issue its last budget before the election on Friday. Attempting to cease back the media narrative, it released its own figures on Thursday revising up a GDP growth estimate for 2017-18 to 7.2 per cent, from 6.7 per cent.  Nonetheless, in an editorial, the Indian Express urged the government to avoid taking “an adversarial stance when confronted with datasets that are uncharitable regarding its performance”.  “Repeated interventions in data releases run the risk of denting the market’s trust in official data released by government agencies,” it warned. “This is a lesson China has learnt the hard way.”


theindependent--2019-03-19--UK unemployment rate hits 44-year low as number in work hits record high

UK unemployment hit a 44-year low and wages rose in the three months to January, the latest official figures show.  The number of people in work jumped 222,000 to 32.7 million, the highest since records began in 1971.  Unemployment fell from 4 per cent to 3.9 per cent, its lowest since the start of 1975 when Harold Wilson was prime minister.  Wages rose 1.5 per cent when adjusted for inflation, the fastest rate since August 2016.  However, the rise was not enough to make up for previous years of stagnation, leaving average wages £7 per week below where they were at their peak before the financial crisis.  Over the last year, the number of people in work jumped by 473,00 to 32.71 million with two-thirds of the new jobs added were full-time, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.  ONS senior statistician Matt Hughes said: “The employment rate has reached a new record high, while the proportion of people who are neither working nor looking for a job – the so-called ‘economic inactivity rate’- is at a new record low.”  But economists cautioned that the headline figures could be concealing deeper malaise.  “Employment growth may [be] being lifted by businesses preferring to employ rather than commit to investment, given current heightened uncertainties, and the fact that employment is relatively low cost and easier to reverse if business subsequently stalls,” said Howard Archer, chief economist of the EY Item Club.  He pointed out that business investment – the part of the economy that traditionally leads to increases in productivity and efficiency – fell in every quarter of the year.  Andrew Wishart, UK economist at Capital Economics, said there was no sign that Brexit-related concerns had hurt the labour market.  “It is surprising that the labour market has remained so strong while economic growth has eased. Indeed, annual employment growth of 1.6 per cent is above the growth in the economy of 1.4 per cent, implying that output per worker – productivity – is falling.”  If a fall in productivity – the amount of goods and services workers produce per hour – was to be confirmed, it would imply less positive news is to come on wages.  In the long term wages can only continue to increase sustainably if productivity increases.  Minister of state for employment, Alok Sharma, hailed the figures. “Our jobs market remains resilient as we see more people than ever before benefiting from earning a wage,” he said.  “By backing the government’s Brexit deal and giving certainty to business, MPs have the chance to safeguard this jobs track record.”  We’ll tell you what’s true. You can form your own view.  At The Independent, no one tells us what to write. That’s why, in an era of political lies and Brexit bias, more readers are turning to an independent source. Subscribe from just 15p a day for extra exclusives, events and ebooks – all with no ads.


theindependent--2019-05-14--Unemployment falls by 65000 but millions of workers remain in poverty

Unemployment falls by 65,000 but millions of workers remain in poverty

UK unemployment fell to 1.3 million in the first three months of the year, official figures show. The number of people out of work but unable to find a job dropped by 65,000 in the year, taking unemployment to 3.8 per cent – a new 44-year low.  However, annual wage growth slowed to 3.2 per cent in the three months to March compared to 3.5 per cent a month earlier, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.  Pay rises are outstripping rising prices, on average, with inflation at 1.9 per cent. However, the gap is narrowing.  In March alone, average pay rose 2.3 per cent compared to a year ago meaning real wage rises are closer to 0.4 per cent. New inflation data will be released next week, giving a more up-to-date picture of the value of people’s pay packets.  Economists warn that further wage increases may be unsustainable unless the UK economy becomes more productive.  Tuesday’s ONS report shows that the amount each worker produces per hour slowed for the third month in a row.  The proportion of the population in work hit its joint-highest on record in March at 76.1 per cent, partly driven by an increasing number of women in employment.  Despite unemployment hovering at its lowest rate since 1974, around 4 million people are now working while living in poverty thanks to slow wage growth and cuts to in-work benefits.  Firms are also holding off investment in new equipment, technology and plants as uncertainty around Brexit moves into its third year.  Ben Brettell, senior economist at Hargreaves Lansdown said: “The ‘British disease’ of low productivity is a spectre which continues to haunt us.  “There are valid concerns that UK firms are hoarding labour instead of much-needed capital expenditure. Why would you invest large sums in new plant or machinery in such uncertain times, when you could hire an extra worker and get broadly the same result?”  Tom Stevenson, investment director for personal investing at Fidelity International said a “murky outlook” is causing firms to “hire now with the option to fire later rather than make irreversible investments in new kit”.  He added: “Perhaps it is still too soon to get ahead of ourselves, though – a week before new inflation data, there’s a question mark over how real the earnings growth is.  “Rising wages are bound in due course to feed through into wider price rises.”  TUC general secretary Frances O’Grady expressed concern that pay growth was stalling again.  “The last thing workers need is another hit in the pocket when real wages are still lower than a decade ago,” Ms O’Grady said.  “The government must raise the minimum wage to £10 as quickly as possible. And give unions the freedom to enter every workplace to negotiate fair pay rises.“


theindependent--2019-08-13--UK unemployment hits 133 million after rising by 31000 in three months official data shows

UK unemployment hits 1.33 million after rising by 31,000 in three months, official data shows

Unemployment in Britain grew by 31,000 to 1.3 million between April and June and the jobless rate rose to 3.9 per cent, suggesting that worries about Brexit and the economy may be starting to take their toll on the labour market.  The unemployment rate increased for the first time since the middle of last year and vacancies, which have been declining since the turn of the year, dropped to 820,000 between May and July, according to official data.  Some analysts said the figures pointed to an emerging slowdown in what has so far been a healthy part of the economy.  But the data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) also showed that wages rose at the fastest pace in 11 years.  “The labour market appears to be reaching a turning point, with unemployment no longer falling, the number of job vacancies no longer increasing and companies and workers deterred from bigger employment decisions by Brexit and global uncertainties,” said Arno Hantzsche, economist at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.  Andrew Wishart, UK economist at Capital Economics, agreed: “June may have marked high tide in the labour market. Demand for workers has cooled on the back of softer economic activity.”  The ONS data showed that the number of people in work climbed to a record high of 32.8 million in the second quarter, driven by a rise in part-time jobs while the number of full-time positions dropped. However, the employment rate remained unchanged at 76.1 per cent.  Tej Parikh, chief economist at the Institute of Directors, suggested that some of the growth in jobs is linked to the current economic uncertainty.  “With investment in machinery and technology often deemed too risky right now, businesses have sought to bring on board more staff to help lift output,” he said, adding that the labour market “may now be reaching its peak”.  Last week, official data revealed that Britain’s economy unexpectedly shrank in the second quarter for the first time since 2012. That bodes ill for jobs as employment tends to adjust with a delay.  On Tuesday the ONS also said that pay growth accelerated. Total pay, including bonuses, increased 3.7 per cent in the April-June period compared with a year earlier, while growth in regular pay, which excludes bonuses, sped up to an 11-year high of 3.9 per cent.  The Resolution Foundation welcomed the faster increase in wages but said it expects pay growth to slow in the coming months, falling short of the pre-crisis average levels of 4 per cent.  “And the longer-term prospects for pay are being undermined by another fall in productivity. Output per hour of work fell by 0.6 per cent compared to the same period last year – the fourth consecutive quarter in which it has fallen year-on-year,” it noted.


themoscowtimes--2019-09-10--Automation May Push 20M Russians Into Unemployment Study Says

Automation May Push 20M Russians Into Unemployment, Study Says

Economists estimate that robots will take over more than 20 million manufacturing jobs worldwide by 2030. Automation is expected to lead to major job losses despite bringing in increased productivity and economic growth.  More than 20 million Russians risk losing their jobs to automation over the next decade if they don’t develop new skills, according to new research.  Almost half of the Russian workforce, or 20.1 million people, risk losing their jobs to digitization and automation by 2030, research by the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) says.  Workers in industries including hotels and restaurants (73%), manufacturing (60%) and agriculture (58%) are most at risk of being replaced by automation, the study says. Other affected industries will include transportation and warehousing (57%), retail trade (53%) and mining (51%).  The authors of the study note that the projection is based on a hypothetical scenario in which automation technologies are implemented instantaneously.  In practice, this process will be drawn out, allowing some workers to retrain or find new jobs.  “There’s still a chance to retrain [and] change your functions,” the research’s author, Stepan Zemtsov, was quoted as saying, noting that the effects of robotization will be “stretched out in time.”  Meanwhile, the authors warn that many of those at risk will be unable to keep up with the technological change.  “Part of the population won’t be able to… retrain, learn new technologies, constantly compete with robots and continuously learn,” Zemtsov told the Izvestia newspaper.  The phenomenon of lost jobs will come to be known as an “economy of ignorance,” he added.  Correction: The headline and text of this article have been changed to reflect that the projections of the study are based on a hypothetical scenario in which automation technologies are implemented instantaneously.


thepoliticalinsider--2019-09-07--Black Unemployment Hits Record Low Spurred By Uptick In Employment For Black Women

Black Unemployment Hits Record Low, Spurred By Uptick In Employment For Black Women

Mary Margaret Olohan on September 6, 2019  Black unemployment hit a record low in August, spurred by an uptick in employment for black women.  The unemployment rate for black workers fell from 6.0% in July to 5.5 % in August, [data from the Department of Labor reveals](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf).  These number surpass the record low set in May 2018 of 5.9% for black unemployment.  These record low numbers are impacted by unemployment numbers for black women. While July numbers revealed unemployment for black women to be at 5.2%, August numbers saw that figure drop to 4.4%.  The unemployment rate for black men increased, conversely, from 5.8% from 5.9%.  130,000 jobs [were added](https://dailycaller.com/2019/09/06/august-jobs- report-2/) in August, about 30,000 fewer jobs than were added in July. Unemployment remained at 3.7 %, consistent with the last three months. The labor force participation rate slightly rose from 63.0% in July to 63.2% in August.  Economists predicted the unemployment rate would remain the same at 3.7%, [according to the Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s -employers-added-130-000-nonfarm-payrolls-in-august-11567773225), and that employers would add 150,000 jobs.  The unemployment rate has held steady between 4% and 3.7% for more than a year before the April jobs report showed it drop to 3.6%. Prior to April’s report, the consistent unemployment rate suggested that workers are jumping back into the workforce to fill open jobs, rather than the workers who are currently collecting unemployment welfare, according to WSJ.


truepundit--2019-04-19--US unemployment claims hit lowest level since 1969

U.S. unemployment claims hit lowest level since 1969

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped to the lowest level in nearly half a century.  The Labor Department says claims for jobless aid fell by 5,000 last week to 192,000, lowest since September 1969. The four-week average, which is less volatile, dropped by 6,000 to 201,250, lowest since November 1969.  Weekly claims have been at historically low levels — below 300,000 — for more than four years. – READ MORE


truepundit--2019-05-04--Hispanic Unemployment Falls to Lowest Level Ever

In April, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for Hispanics and Latinos declined to 4.2 percent, a sharp decline from 4.7 percent in March. That beat record its previous record lows of 4.4 percent hit in October and December. The government began tracking Hispanic employment data in 1973.  The number of Hispanics and Latinos employed in the U.S. in April was 27.3 million, a slight dip from the record high set in December. – READ MORE


abcnews--2019-01-10--From missing paychecks to unemployment claims The latest on the government shutdown

From missing paychecks to unemployment claims: The latest on the government shutdown

The ongoing government shutdown is about to turn into the longest one in U.S. history and that's raising questions about what will happen next.  By Friday, many of the 800,000 federal workers affected are expected to have missed their first paycheck since the shutdown began three weeks ago. And by Saturday, the funding lapse will be the longest in history at 22 days, surpassing the 21-day holiday shutdown that stretched into 1996.  The missing paychecks are likely to trigger at least some unemployment claims with states, as well as possible resignations by federal workers who have grown tired of the instability. That could include airline security personnel, prison guards, food inspectors, Coast Guard personnel and border patrol officers.  Already, an estimated 4,500 people have filed for unemployment in the nation's capital. Airline workers are showing up on Capitol Hill urging Congress to reach a deal, and a separate major union rally is planned for Thursday.  For now, most agencies say there haven't been any major disruptions to government operations because workers deemed essential -- about 420,000 -- have been ordered to keep working despite not being paid. At least two lawsuits have been filed on their behalf, with major unions arguing that requiring work without pay isn't fair.  But as one agency official put it, if the shutdown extends past February, "we'll be digging into the couch cushions" to keep the most important operations afloat.  Here's a look at the latest shutdown developments and what could happen next:  Washington's city government estimates that about 4,500 people -– 3,745 federal workers and 822 federal contractors -- already have filed for unemployment as a direct result of the shutdown.  That's likely just the beginning. Federal workers can file for unemployment benefits where they worked, and, according to one major union, some 85 percent of the federal workforce exists outside Washington.  Rules vary from state to state. But it's generally expected that employees would have to repay any unemployment benefits if they receive back pay once the shutdown ends.  There is one small comfort for federal workers though: The Office of Personnel and Management on Wednesday said that employees required to work during the shutdown will be able to reschedule any paid time off they may have lost.  Food stamp recipients will have access to their full benefits for February, even if the partial government shutdown continues, the Agriculture Department told reporters late Tuesday.  The department said it will work with states to load benefits onto recipients' cards by Jan. 20, just within the deadline for a provision that allows them to pay out benefits, even without a budget.  Still a concern are expiring contracts for a program by the Department of Housing and Urban Development that subsidizes rent and utilities for 1.2 million low-income families. HUD announced that some 1,150 contracts with private landlords have expired since the shutdown, with another 500 set to expire later this month and 500 more next month.  The agency sent the landlords letters earlier this month urging them to dip into any reserves, and an agency spokesman said he didn't expect any evictions to take place because landlords know they will eventually get paid when the shutdown ends.  "There have never been evictions of any kind because of government shutdowns," HUD spokesman Brian Sullivan said.  Worth noting though is that if the shutdown stretches into February, which is possible considering the lack of progress in budget talks, HUD and other agencies would be working in uncharted territory.  The local water provider in Washington said the federal government is short $5 million of the $16.5 million it owes, according to a recent letter it received from the Treasury Department.  Matthew Brown, chief financial officer at the District of Columbia Water and Sewer Authority, known as D.C. Water, said they usually don't charge late fees to customers like the federal government and the delayed payments won't immediately hurt the water authority's pocket books.  "It would probably be, just off the top of my head, approximately a year before it begins to be a real problem," Brown said.  Also a concern are the air traffic controllers employed by the Federal Aviation Administration. This week, nearly 100 air traffic controllers went to Capitol Hill to call for an end to the shutdown. An association of the workers said they're already at a 30-year staffing low nationwide. They expect their first missing paycheck around Jan. 15.  After the shutdown, routine domestic food inspections were suspended by the Food and Drug Administration, although foreign food inspections continued along with what the agency called surveillance of "high-risk" foods and facilities.  Food and Drug Administrator Commissioner Scott Gottlieb said Wednesday that the agency is "taking steps" to expand domestic food safety inspections further during the shutdown, focusing on high-risk facilities that make up a third of regular inspections.  Gottlieb tweeted that he wants to bring food inspectors back to work as early as next week, though they still would not be paid until the government reopens.  The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is calling back employees to staff 38 national wildlife refuges across the country under a temporary 30-day plan that will rely on leftover money from its 2018 budget.  Similar to the National Park Services, refuges were accessible to the public, minus the staff or access to visitors centers. The workers that come back will be carrying out prescribed burns to manage the areas and minimize wildfire risk. They will also staff visitors centers and conduct maintenance, as well as continue working on environmental rules they hope to complete before next fall's hunting season.  So far, the biggest visible impact of the shutdown for the general public has been at the national parks, where the absence of staff has meant a pileup of trash and safety violations.  But, the parks have said they are working to restore basic services including trash pick up using money previously collected from entrance fees and campground fees. One site, Joshua Tree National Park in California, had announced it planned to close temporarily Thursday to deal with sanitation and safety issues. But it later said it was able to avert that shutdown using recreation fees.  The parks though will still take a financial hit even when the shutdown ends. Democrats on the Senate Appropriations Committee have estimated that NPS could lose $400,000 a day in fees if there isn't staff available to collect from visitors. Also, parks may have to pay to repair damage done by visitors not following park rules during the shutdown.

Anne Flaherty,, Stephanie Ebbs , Quinn Owen


cnn--2019-01-11--Unemployment claims by federal workers skyrocket

Unemployment claims by furloughed federal workers skyrocketed more than 400% in the last week of December, according to the most recent figures from the Department of Labor. That release shows 4,760 federal employees applied for unemployment in the first week of the shutdown, which is now entering its record-breaking third week.  Furloughed federal employees are eligible for state unemployment and can file a claim the first week they are out of work. Many government contractors are eligible as well.  "I actually filed for unemployment on Monday," Stann Kaplan, an enforcement analyst with the Department of Housing and Urban Development, told CNN on Friday. "When I did file, they asked me why I didn't file sooner. I just said I was just kind of waiting to see whether we get paid or whether this shutdown will end."  Not every furloughed federal worker can claim unemployment. Employees who are deemed essential and are currently working without pay are not eligible.  June Bencebi, a case manager at the Federal Detention Center in New York, is one of them. "We're in the same situation as a furloughed worker, and we're not getting paid. I feel like we should be able to collect unemployment because we're not getting any income inside our homes," said Bencebi, who serves as treasurer for her union local. Bencebi says many of her colleagues are calling out of work, replicating a pattern seen at the Transportation Security Administration. 77 direct effects of the partial government shutdown (and counting) "I'm already having [union] members tell me they've been feeding their children peanut butter and jelly sandwiches for dinner," said Bencebi. "Once Saturday and Sunday hit, I believe that more people will be unable to come to work because they won't have the money -- the majority of our staff live paycheck to paycheck." The American Federation of Government Employees -- the largest federal employee union -- says many of their members have already applied for unemployment and they're expecting that number to continue rising if the shutdown doesn't end. Larry Hirsch is the vice president of the AFGE Local 913 in New York and is a senior planning and development representative for HUD. So far, he's been able to stay afloat without unemployment checks -- but that could change if the shutdown drags on. "If we're still here in the spring, I'll start thinking about it," said Hirsch. "I want to work, I want to do my job, five days a week. We're in public service, you want to serve the public."


cnsnews--2019-02-01--Hispanic Unemployment Rises from Record Low in January as Labor Force Grows

The national seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for Hispanics and Latinos in the U.S. labor force rose to 4.9% in January after tying its lowest level on record the month before  U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data released Friday show.  In January, the unemployment rate for Hispanics and Latinos, aged 16 and up, was 4.9%, up from 4.4% in December, which matched its record low of 4.4% set in October of 2018. BLS began tracking Hispanic-Latino employment data in 1973.  The number of Hispanics employed fell to 27,579,000 from its record high of 27,701,000 in December. Both the number participating in the workplace and Hispanics' labor force participation rate rose for the fifth straight month, with the participation rate hitting 67.3% - well above the national average of 63.2%.  · Civilian Noninstitutionalized Population (16+ years old): 43,044,000 down from from 43,234,000 in December  · Number Participating in Labor Force: 28,985,000 up from 28,963,000 in December  · Number Employed: 27,579,000 down from 27,701,000 in December  · Number Unemployed: 1,406,000 up from 1,261,000 in December


cnsnews--2019-03-11--24 Iowa and NHFirst Caucus and Primary StatesTie for Lowest Unemployment Rate

2.4%: Iowa and NH—First Caucus and Primary States—Tie for Lowest Unemployment Rate

(CNSNews.com) - Iowa and New Hampshire, which are respectively scheduled to hold the first-in-the nation presidential caucuses and first-in-the-nation presidential primary in 2020, tied at 2.4 percent for the nation’s lowest unemployment rate among the 50 states in January, according to data released Monday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  The national unemployment rate in January was 4.0 percent, according to BLS. (It subsequently dropped to 3.8 percent in February, as the BLS reported on Friday.)  “Iowa and New Hampshire had the lowest unemployment rates in January, 2.4 percent each,” said the BLS’s State Employment and Unemployment Summary published today.  “The rate in Vermont (2.5 percent) set a new series low,” said BLS in reporting the record low unemployment rate in the home state of Democratic Sen. Bernie Sanders. (BLS has been reporting state-by-state unemployment rates since 1976.)  “Alaska had the highest jobless rate, 6.5 percent,” said BLS. “In total, 19 states had unemployment rates lower than the U.S. figure of 4.0 percent, 8 states and the District of Columbia had higher rates, and 23 states had rates that were not appreciably different from that of the nation.”  In the second half of the 20th Century, Iowa and New Hampshire established their respective positions as the nation’s first presidential caucus state and first presidential primary state. In the 2020 primary season, the Iowa Caucuses are currently scheduled for Feb. 3, 2020 and the New Hampshire primary is scheduled for Feb. 11, 2020.


cnsnews--2019-04-05--Number of Hispanics Employed Rises in March Unemployment Rate Up from Record Low

Number of Hispanics Employed Rises in March; Unemployment Rate Up from Record Low

The national seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for Hispanics and Latinos in the U.S. labor rose to 4.7% in March from its record low set the month before U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data released Friday show.  In March, the unemployment rate for Hispanics and Latinos, aged 16 and up, was 4.7%, up from 4.3% in February. February broke its record low of 4.4% set in October of 2018 and matched in December of 2018. BLS began tracking Hispanic-Latino employment data in 1973.  The number of Hispanics employed rose to 27,566,000 from 27,480,000 in February and off from its record high of 27,701,000 in December 2018. The number of Hispanics participating in the workplace increased as Hispanics' labor force participation rate rose to 67.0% in March, up from 66.6% the month before.


cnsnews--2019-05-06--Record Unemployment for Hispanics Women in Latest Jobs Report

Record Unemployment for Hispanics, Women in Latest Jobs Report

It’s time to celebrate: We have the lowest unemployment rate in 49 years, and wages continue to rise—especially for lower-wage workers.  On Friday, the Bureau of Labor statistics reported that in April, the economy created a whopping 263,000 jobs, and the U-3 unemployment rate—the one commonly cited—fell from 3.8 percent to 3.6 percent. The alternate measure for unemployment, the U-6, which includes those discouraged and underemployed as well, remained unchanged at 7.3 percent.  This is consistent with the larger pattern we’ve been seeing of the economy booming: Over the last year, our economy is averaging 213,000 jobs per month, and we now have 103 consecutive months of job creation.  At 4.2 percent the Hispanic unemployment rate is the lowest it has ever been, and at 3.1 percent the adult women unemployment rate reached its lowest since 1953.  Furthermore, the unemployment rates declined in April for adult men (3.4%), whites (3.1%), and Asians (2.2%). The jobless rates for teenagers (13%) and African-Americans (6.7%) showed little or no change.  Here are the primary job gains and losses in April:  Continuing the good news, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 6 cents to an incredible $27.77. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.2 percent.  In addition, lower-wage workers saw some of the largest wage gains. Wage growth for production and nonsupervisory workers increased to 3.4 percent.  This shows that the poorest Americans are benefiting most when the economy is healthy.  In addition, the February jobs numbers were revised up from +33,000 to +56,000, and the numbers for March were revised down from +196,000 to +189,000. Factoring in those numbers, this means in February and March there were an additional 16,000 jobs created above and beyond those previously reported.  We have now seen nine straight months of year-over-year wage gains at or above 3 percent. Prior to 2018, nominal hourly wage gains had not reached 3 percent since April 2009.  This steady increase in wages continues to reflect that employers are competing to fill the over 7 million open jobs in America.  While the report is mostly good news, a little more troubling is that the falling unemployment rate might be partially fueled by a decrease in the labor force participation rate. Last month there was a 490,000 person decline in the labor force, which brought the participation rate down from 63 percent to 62.8 percent.  This means that people are either not working or have given up looking for work for various reasons. It could also mean that the number of people retiring increased.  The jobs report is just one measure of the overall health of our economy.  However, with the recent gross domestic product numbers shattering expert predictions, the increase in worker productivity, and small business confidence being near record highs, we are seeing that good economic policy that encourages Washington to get out of the way is working.  Here’s a suggestion to members of Congress and the White House: Don’t squander this moment of tremendous growth and prosperity. It’s time to curb the out-of-control spending and debt that continues to threaten future generations with higher taxes and less opportunity.  Americans are doing their part to plan for the future by investing, hiring, growing, and spending. It’s now time for Washington to do their part.  Timothy Doescher is associate director of coalition relations at The Heritage Foundation's Institute for Economic Freedom.  : This piece was originally published by The Daily Signal.


cnsnews--2019-08-02--Hispanic Unemployment Rate Rises to 45 in July

Hispanic Unemployment Rate Rises to 4.5% in July

The number of Hispanics and Latinos employed fell and those in the U.S. labor force increased, in July as their national seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.5%, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data released Friday show.  In July, the unemployment rate for Hispanics and Latinos, aged 16 and up, was 4.5%, up from 4.3% in June, as well as and from the record low of 4.2% in April and May – which broke the record low of 4.3% set two months earlier in February. BLS began tracking Hispanic-Latino employment data in 1973.  21,000 fewer Hispanics had jobs in July. The record for Hispanic employment of 27,701,000 was set in December 2018. The number of Hispanics participating in the workplace increased in July as Hispanics' labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 66.4%.  The number of unemployed Hispanics rose to 1,314,000 in July, up from 1,253,000 the previous month.


cnsnews--2019-09-06--Hispanic Unemployment Rate Ties All-Time Low

The number of Hispanics and Latinos employed set a record high in August as their national, seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate matched its record low of 4.2%, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data released Friday show.  In August, the unemployment rate for Hispanics and Latinos, aged 16 and up, was 4.2%, down from 4.5% in July, returning to the record low of 4.2% in April and May – which broke the record low of 4.3% set two months earlier in February. BLS began tracking Hispanic-Latino employment data in 1973.  285,000 more Hispanics had jobs in August, as the 27,866,000 employed broke the record for Hispanic employment of 27,701,000 set in December 2018. The number of Hispanics participating in the workplace rose in August, as did Hispanics' labor force participation rate, which increased from 66.4% to 66.7%.  The number of unemployed Hispanics fell by 98,000 to 1,216,000, down from 1,314,000 in July.


cnsnews--2019-10-04--286000 More Hispanics Had Jobs in September Setting Record Low Unemployment Rate of 39

286,000 More Hispanics Had Jobs in September, Setting Record Low Unemployment Rate of 3.9%

The national seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for Hispanics and Latinos fell to a record 3.9% in September – smashing its previous record of 4.2% in August. The number of Hispanics and Latinos employed also set a new record high in September, also breaking a record set the month before, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data released Friday show.  In September, the unemployment rate for Hispanics and Latinos, aged 16 and up, was 3.9%, down from 4.2% in August, breaking the record low of 4.2% in April and May – which broke the record low of 4.3% set two months earlier in February. BLS began tracking Hispanic-Latino employment data in 1973.  286,000 more Hispanics had jobs in September, as the 28,152,000 employed broke the record for Hispanic employment of 27,866,000 set in August. The number of Hispanics participating in the workplace rose in September, as did Hispanics' labor force participation rate, which increased from 66.7% to 67.0%.  The number of unemployed Hispanics fell by 81,000 to 1,135,000 down from 1,216,000 in August.


drudgereport--2019-01-06--HISPANIC UNEMPLOYMENT LOWEST EVER

HISPANIC UNEMPLOYMENT LOWEST EVER...

The national seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for Hispanics and Latinos in the U.S. labor force hit its lowest level on record in December of 2018, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data released Friday show.  In December, the unemployment rate for Hispanics and Latinos, aged 16 and up, was 4.4%, down from 4.5% in November - tying its record low of 4.4% set in October of this year. BLS began tracking Hispanic-Latino employment data in 1973.  The number of Hispanics employed set a new record high of 27,701,000 in December, as their unemployment rate fell to a record low. The number of Hispanics employed, participating in the workplace, and civilian population all rose in December, as Hispanics' labor force participation rate increased from 66.8% to 67.0%, recording its fourth straight monthly increase.  · Unemployment rate: 4.4%, down from 4.5% in November  · Civilian Noninstitutionalized Population (16+ years old): 43,234,000 up from 43,146,000 in November  · Number Participating in Labor Force: 29,963,000, up from 28,820,000 in November  · Number Employed: 27,701,000, up from 27,524,000 in November  · Number Unemployed: 1,261,000, down from 1,296,000 in November


UNEMPLOYMENT 49-YEAR LOW

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The economy generated a stronger than expected 263,000 new jobs in April, helping to drive down the unemployment rate to a 49-year low of 3.6%. The increase in new jobs easily topped the 217,000 MarketWatch forecast. The jobless rate slid from 3.8% in March to hit the lowest level since December 1969. The average wage paid to American workers rose 6 cents, or 0.2%, to $27.77 an hour. The 12-month rate of hourly wage gains was unchanged at 3.2%. Hours worked each week fell 0.1 hour in April to 34.4. The government revised the increase in new jobs in March to 189,000 from a preliminary 196,000. February's gain was raised to 56,000 from 33,000.  Have breaking news sent to your inbox. Subscribe to MarketWatch's free Bulletin emails. Sign up here.


UNEMPLOYMENT 50-YEAR LOW

WASHINGTON—The U.S. job market strengthened in November, as hiring jumped and unemployment returned to a half-century low, adding fuel to the economic expansion.  Employers added 266,000 jobs last month—the fastest pace since 312,000 in January—and the jobless rate dipped to 3.5%, matching September as the lowest level since 1969, the Labor Department said Friday. Wages also advanced, up 3.1% from a year earlier.


eveningstandard--2019-12-17--UK unemployment rate drops to lowest level in 44 years as number of women out of work falls

UK unemployment dropped to its lowest level in 44 years in the three months to October, as the number of unemployed women hit a record low.  However, the reduction in unemployment came as wage growth stalled over the period and the number of job vacancies also shrank.  The number of people claiming unemployment benefits decreased by 13,000 to 1.28 million for the quarter, the Office for National Statistics said.  It meant the rate of unemployment stayed flat at 3.8 per cent, surpassing analyst expectations which had forecast an increase to a 3.9 per cent rate of unemployment.  This was largely driven by a decrease in the unemployment rate for women, which fell to a record low of 3.5 per cent for the period.  Meanwhile, the number of people in work increased by 24,000 to 32.8 million for the quarter, while the proportion of people in employment stayed flat at 76.2 per cent.  Despite the increase, more people were also deemed economically inactive during the period, with the level increasing by 19,000 to 8.61 million for the quarter.  David Freeman, head of labour market and households at the ONS, said: "While the estimate of the employment rate nudged up in the most recent quarter, the longer-term picture has seen it broadly flat over the last few quarters.  "Pay is still increasing in real terms, but its growth rate has slowed in the last few months."  Average total pay increased by 3.2 per cent in the quarter, as it slowed down from 3.6% the previous month, the ONS said. Analysts had a predicted that growth would only decline to 3.4 per cent.  The slowdown was driven by growth rate of just 2.4 per cent in October, as it reported the biggest monthly slump in bonus payments for more than five years.  The figures also revealed that job vacancies slid by 20,000 to 794,000, as the rate of decline continued to accelerate from the previous period.  Vacancies have now declined for ten consecutive months and have now fallen below 800,000 for the first time in more than two years.


fortune--2019-01-03--Unemployment Benefits Claims Hit 4-Week High Amid Federal Shutdown

Filings for U.S. unemployment benefits rose to a four-week high at year’s end, amid holidays that tend to make the figures more volatile and a partial government shutdown that may have spurred federal workers to request funds.  Jobless claims increased to 231,000 in the week ended Dec. 29, above the 220,000 median estimate of economists, Labor Department figures showed Thursday. Continuing claims, which are reported with a one-week lag, rose to the highest since late July.  The increase potentially reflects filings from workers affected in the first week of the shutdown, which has caused the furlough of an estimated 350,000 federal employees. Because details on jobless claims by federal employees are reported with a lag, it will take more time to determine how much of the latest rise is due to the shutdown.  Analysts caution that it’s also difficult to gauge the underlying trend of claims around holidays, amid factors such as seasonal hiring and vacations that typically make the figures more volatile than usual. Last week included Christmas and preceded New Year’s Day. Recent stock-market declines and weakness in manufacturing and housing suggest economic growth will moderate in 2019, and jobless claims are a key leading indicator of the labor market’s health.  Even with the rise, claims are near the lowest since 1969, and Friday’s monthly employment report is projected to show the broad job market remained solid in December.  The four-week average of initial claims, a less-volatile measure, fell to 218,750 from 219,250. The previous week’s claims were revised up to 221,000 from 216,000. The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits was unchanged at 1.2 percent. California and Virginia had estimated claims last week.


fortune--2019-01-10--Can Federal Workers Collect Unemployment During the Shutdown Some of Them

Can Federal Workers Collect Unemployment During the Shutdown? Some of Them

As the government shutdown wanes on, federal employees that have been furloughed are dealing with their first missed paycheck.  While for some that might not be a tremendous problem, for others that money is much needed to cover their mortgage, electricity, food, and other household bills. Now, some federal workers are filing for unemployment as a way to make ends meet.  Around 380,000 federal workers are currently furloughed, and 420,000 employees are working as “essential” personnel without pay. While only a small percentage of those workers have filed for unemployment thus far, the number is expected to grow as the shutdown continues.  For instance, in D.C, 3,745 federal workers and an estimated 822 federal contractors have applied for benefits, and in Maryland 1,328 workers have filed an unemployment claim, The Huffington Post reports. CNBC says that more than 4,700 federal employees filed for unemployment in the last week of December, compared with 929 the week prior.  But not everyone qualifies.  In order to qualify for unemployment, a federal employee has to be one of the 380,000 employees that are currently furloughed, not one of the 420,000 working without pay. Those working without pay are still considered “employed” even though they aren’t seeing a paycheck.  And workers who do receive unemployment will be required to pay that unemployment back when they’re granted backpay after the shutdown. If they don’t, their future wages could even be garnished.  And to receive unemployment federal employees have to prove they’re applying for jobs while they’re receiving payments, jobs that they theoretically don’t need or want.


fortune--2019-01-24--Americans Seeking Unemployment Benefits Nears 50-Year Low If You Dont Count Furloughed Federal Wor

Americans Seeking Unemployment Benefits Nears 50-Year Low, If You Don’t Count Furloughed Federal Workers

The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits is lower than it’s been in decades—but that’s an incomplete picture since furloughed federal employees are excluded from the latest job-market report.  According to figures released by the Labor Department on Thursday, weekly applications for unemployment benefits dropped to the lowest level last week since November 1969. Weekly applications declined 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 199,000, reports The Associated Press. Meanwhile, the four-week average fell 5,500, to 215,000.  While the employment report indicates a robust job market, it doesn’t include the number of federal employees that have sought unemployment aid in the weeks since the government shutdown began. Federal workers’ unemployment is tracked separately and therefore isn’t included in Labor’s monthly jobs report.  Now in its fifth week, the shutdown is having an acute impact on federal employees: 25,419 applied for unemployment benefits last week, more than double the number from the prior week.  The overall national employment report is heartening, providing reassurance that employers are not laying off their workers despite uncertainty associated with the shutdown. But should it continue to drag on, the number of federal employees seeking unemployment benefits is likely to increase. Federal employees have already missed an average of $5,000 in wages and many are looking for alternate sources of income.


fortune--2019-02-01--The Government Shutdown Pushed Up US Unemployment Rate in January

The Government Shutdown Pushed Up U.S. Unemployment Rate in January

U.S. hiring in January topped all forecasts while wage gains cooled and the government shutdown pushed up the unemployment rate, signaling job gains remain robust without major inflation pressures that would worry Federal Reserve officials.  Nonfarm payrolls increased by 304,000, the most in almost a year, after a downwardly revised 222,000 gain the prior month, a Labor Department report showed Friday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey called for an increase of 165,000, following an initially reported 312,000 in December.  Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% from the prior month, missing estimates. The annual gain of 3.2% matched forecasts though was down from an upwardly revised 3.3% in December. The jobless rate increased to 4%, reflecting the shutdown, as the number of unemployed on temporary layoff rose by 175,000, many of them federal workers, according to the department.  The figures, which included the highest participation rate since 2013, indicate the labor market remains in a sweet spot where companies are adding workers and boosting pay without suggesting any urgent need for the Fed to end its newfound patience on holding rates steady. Policy makers this week indicated they won’t hike again until inflation accelerates, even with the economy already roughly at the central bank’s goal of full employment.  The hiring and wage gains underscore resilient demand for labor, and support for consumer spending, even as the shutdown furloughed government workers, heightened uncertainty and weighed on economic activity. At the same time, economists had cautioned the data would contain more distortions than usual.  The Labor Department found “no discernible impacts” of the shutdown on the establishment survey’s January estimates of employment, hours or earnings, acting labor-statistics commissioner William Wiatrowski said in a statement. Still, the shutdown likely hit some private industries, and some federal workers were probably misclassified as employed but absent from work instead of unemployed on temporary layoff, Wiatrowski said.  In addition, the number of Americans working part-time for economic reasons had an unusually large jump of about 500,000, which Wiatrowski said was almost all in the private sector and may reflect the shutdown. That pushed up the U-6, or underemployment rate, to 8.1% from 7.6%.  The shutdown was in effect for the week that included Jan. 12—the reference period for both the household survey, which produces the jobless rate, and the survey of establishments, which provides the payroll and wage figures.  Hundreds of thousands of federal employees who were furloughed were still included in the payrolls tally because they will collect back pay, though they would be considered unemployed in the household survey. But workers in related businesses, such as contractors, may have lost hours and earnings they may never fully recoup.  Economists had anticipated the jobless rate would experience some upward pressure related to the shutdown, instead of declining further amid the tight labor market. Even so, the rate remains well below the level that central bankers consider sustainable in the long run.  In January, gains in hiring included construction, with the biggest increase in almost a year. Leisure and hospitality, education and health, transportation and warehousing and retail all had solid advances. Manufacturing payrolls increased by 13,000, a five-month low.  While the job market looks healthy, it’ll be hard to match last year’s strength in employment, as the economy is projected to expand at a more moderate pace in 2019. The tax-cut tailwinds are likely to fade, the state of the trade war remains uncertain and global growth is cooling. In addition, businesses say the shortage of skilled workers is limiting plans to expand their workforce.


france24--2019-06-18--Macrons government unveils tough reform of unemployment benefits

Macron’s government unveils ‘tough’ reform of unemployment benefits

Lucas Baroulet, AFP | French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe (right) and Labour Minister Muriel Penicaud (left) give a press conference at the Hotel de Matignon in Paris on June 18, 2019.  French President Emmanuel Macron's government on Tuesday unveiled plans to make it more difficult for the unemployed to claim benefits, part of an overhaul of France's labour market that aims to boost the nation's economy.  The planned changes extend the period people will have had to work to be entitled to unemployment benefits and reduces the amount wealthier workers can receive after six months out of work.  France's unemployed now get, on average, over €1,000 ($1,118) per month - an amount that can reach a maximum of €6,200 ($6,936) for two consecutive years.  Labour Minister Muriel Penicaud said the reform was “tough yet important”, while Prime Minister Édouard Phillipe stated that the primary objective of the legislation is “not to save money but to ensure that work pays more than inactivity”. Macron’s government is aiming for “full employment” by 2025.  However, France’s trade unions have denounced the plans as unfair and damaging to the country's social security system. “It’s just about saving money,” said Marylise Leon, deputy secretary general of the CFDT union.  Organised labour groups called for the government to focus instead on strengthening support for Pôle Emploi, a state-run network of job centres.  A leader at the far-left CGT union, Catherine Perret, called for protests against the labor changes.  A demonstration is scheduled next week in front of the unemployment benefits agency in Paris.  Meanwhile, business leaders have criticised plans to introduce sanctions for companies that keep workers on short-term contracts and incentives for those that offer permanent contracts instead.  The government expects these reforms to save €3.4 billion ($3.8 billion) over three years and hopes they will reduce the number of jobless.  Unemployment in France fell to 8.7% in the first quarter of the year, its lowest in a decade – yet it remains among the highest in Europe.  Despite the improved figures, unemployment has been a sensitive issue for Macron since he was lambasted in 2018 for telling a jobless man that he would find work if he "crossed the street".  Macron's government plans to pass the controversial labor law changes by decree this summer, a procedure that avoids a lengthy debate in parliament.  Key changes to France's labor market - a previous reform in 2017 made it easier to hire and fire French workers - are among the pro-business policies championed by Macron but rejected by anti-government protesters in the yellow vest movement that started last November.  Macron has vowed to keep making such changes to the economy to boost its competitiveness. Another major reform of France's pension system is scheduled to be presented in July.


hitandrun--2019-07-18--Unemployment Underemployment and the Comprehensive Jobless Rate

Unemployment, Underemployment, and the Comprehensive Jobless Rate

When he testified before Congress last week, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell made an interesting comment: "We don't have any basis or any evidence for calling this a hot labor market." He added that "to call something hot, you need to see some heat." Come again? The unemployment rate is 3.7 percent, and this is somehow a lukewarm market?  An inability to perceive this alleged lukewarmness of the labor market may be explained by the fact that the main metrics we use to report the health of the labor market—this 3.7 percent unemployment rate—captures only one aspect of the employment story.  That said, whatever this metric implies, it probably makes most governments around the world drool with envy. Many African countries face unemployment rates of 20 percent or above. The rate in Greece is 17.6 percent. The French unemployment rate stands at 8.7 percent. In Italy, it's 9.9 percent. The Euro Area unemployment rate is 7.5 percent, and that's its lowest rate since 2008. Sweden is at 6.8 percent. Australia is 5.2 percent, and in Canada, it's 5.5 percent.  Yet, according to the website Trading Economics, the low U.S. rate isn't really unique. The United Kingdom has a 3.8 percent unemployment rate. Germany has a 3.1 percent rate in spite of suffering through a bout of slow growth. Japan's rate is a mere 2.4 percent. Singapore is at 2.2 percent, while Qatar has a reportedly minuscule rate of 0.10 percent.  The problem with the headline unemployment rate produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)—called the "U-3 rate"—is that it only counts people who aren't working but want to work, defined as having made an effort over the past four weeks to find a job and being available to start a job.  The BLS does publish other unemployment metrics. There's the "discouraged worker" unemployment rate (U-4), which includes job-wanters who, while they haven't searched for employment in the past month because of economic reasons (e.g., believing that they don't have the training for the available jobs), have actively pursued employment in the last year. Then there's the U-5 rate, including those who similarly haven't looked for work because of "non-economic reasons," such as caring for family members or lacking transportation.  But BLS estimates don't count people who have full-time jobs and who would like to work more hours or switch jobs. It doesn't account for some important nuances, like an older population. That's why many economists, from the University of Maryland's John Haltiwanger and Katharine Abraham to Dartmouth College's David Blanchflower to the University of Stirling's David Bell in the U.K. to economists at the Dallas Fed, are all coming up with new metrics.  My colleague Michael Farren is pushing for new metrics that would give a more accurate picture of the labor market, too. Originally designed by economist Scott Winship in a paper for the Mercatus Center, Farren embraces the idea and is doing the hard work to make the case for a metric to government officials and journalists. He calls it the Comprehensive Jobless Rate (CJR). It's comprehensive because it counts all adults who say they want jobs, regardless of whether they are or aren't actively looking for work.  Farren tells me, "The comprehensive jobless rate could be referred to as the 'U-5b' because conceptually, it falls between the U-5 and U-6 unemployment rates. (U-6 adds in people who are working in part-time jobs but want full-time employment. But the U-6 metric is less useful as a measure of joblessness because it conflates 'unemployment' with 'underemployment' by counting part-time workers as if they didn't have a job at all.)"  The CJR (or U-5b) uses the same BLS data but counts people who otherwise fall through the cracks of the official BLS unemployment measures: those who gave up looking for work more than 12 months ago or are currently unavailable to take a job but are still actively searching for future work opportunities (like graduating students). It's not intended as a replacement for the other unemployment measures; rather, it's useful as a benchmark to better understand the unemployment metrics and fact-check politically motivated exaggerations.  The CJR is about 3.3 percent higher, on average, than the headline unemployment rate. But don't feel too bad about that because this higher CJR hit an all-time low last April at 6.5 percent! Whether that's a hot market or not, I'll let you be the judge.


newsbusters--2019-03-12--ZZZZZ Networks Sleep Through Another Hispanic Unemployment Record Low

ZZZZZ! Networks Sleep Through Another Hispanic Unemployment Record Low

There was good news in the latest jobs report. The national unemployment rate fell back to 3.8 percent in February, although the numbers of jobs added was well below expectations. The Hispanic unemployment rate also fell to a new record low of 4.3 percent. But that record didn’t make it into any of the network evening shows that night.  ABC, CBS and NBC evening news programs said nothing about that record low on March 8, when the report came out. The three shows also ignored the four prior Hispanic unemployment rate record lows set between November 2017 and October 2018.  For more than a year, those shows have hidden minority unemployment record lows for African Americans, Hispanics and Asians, with only a single broadcast mentioning one of the eight record lows set since November 2017 (1 out of 21 broadcasts).  By ignoring the latest record low from March 8, the networks are now 1 for 24 broadcasts.  Nightly News did air a positive jobs story on March 8. NBC reported that in spite of only 20,000 jobs being added in February, unemployment fell nationally to the very low rate of 3.8 percent. Correspondent Tom Costello provided viewers with a story about employers with job openings, who are struggling to find qualified people to fill those positions.  World News Tonight simply mentioned the “disappointing” number of job gains and the national unemployment rate. CBS Evening News did not cover jobs that night.  MRC Latino also found silence about the record on Spanish-language television on March 8. Incredibly, the flagship evening newscasts of the top three leaders in the Spanish-language television segment — Univision, Telemundo and CNN en Español (which ostensibly exist to report news most relevant to the country's Hispanic population) — also failed to report that a new record-low in Hispanic unemployment was set in February.  Instead, Univision's top national evening news program limited itself to reporting on overall U.S. unemployment falling to 3.8 percent, in anchor Ilia Calderón's words, "the lowest in the last 55 years." Telemundo's national evening news was completely silent on the employment news, while CNN en Español reported on the 4.3 percent Hispanic unemployment rate, but failed to mention that it was a new record low.


newsbusters--2019-04-08--Evening News Skips March 196K Jobs Rebound 38 Unemployment

Evening News Skips March 196K Jobs Rebound, 3.8% Unemployment

Given the very few job gains in February and rampant media speculation in March about a coming recession, it was essential that all three evening news shows update their audiences about jobs and unemployment April 5.  But not all of them did.  Of the three broadcast networks, the CBS Evening News was the outlier that ignored the jobs report that night. ABC's World News Tonight with David Muir and NBC Nightly News reported the March jobs report which showed 196,000 jobs added, and unemployment remaining extremely low at 3.8 percent.  But even those were brief mentions. Nightly News spent just 15 seconds delivering the “positive” economic news.  Meanwhile, World News Tonight gave just 12 seconds to the latest numbers, which anchor David Muir said were “rebounding from a disappointing February that raised fears of a slowing economy.”  Neither ABC, nor NBC acknowledged that the much stronger March report eased many of those fears about recession — fears the liberal media promoted daily throughout the month of March.  On April 5, The Wall Street Journal wrote that the latest jobs report “relieves fears about hiring significantly downshifting.” Barron’s wrote that “The Dow is rising because solid March payrolls should end the recession debate.” And one MarketWatch op-ed said, “The jobs report nails it: It’s a slowdown, not a recession.”


newsbusters--2019-05-03--April Exceeds Expectations 36 Unemployment Lowest Since 69

April Exceeds Expectations, 3.6% Unemployment Lowest Since ’69

April was a great month for jobs with another upside surprise.  CNN reported on May 2, that it was expected to be “a healthy but unspectacular” 185,000 jobs. Unemployment was expected to remain at 3.8 percent. MarketWatch was expecting a “robust increase” of around 213,000 jobs.  Surprise! The economy did even better than that.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced May 3 that 263,000 non-farm jobs were added in April. The national unemployment rate dropped to 3.6 percent, the lowest since 1969. CNBC’s Squawk Box reported on May 3, that April also set a new record low for Hispanic unemployment at 4.2 percent.  CNBC reporter Ylan Mui noted that not only did jobs growth beat expectations, but adjustments to the previous two months added 16,000 jobs that also had not been reported.  “I think everything’s acting quite well. As a matter of fact, I think if we get a trade deal that mostly likely could be a deflationary event. That most likely is going to excite stocks even more. Thinking ‘Oh, the Fed’s gonna see this and really think inflation is going down,’” on-air editor Rick Santelli said after the latest numbers.  Club for Growth President David McIntosh told Squawk Box the jobs report was “very good news.”  Later on Squawk on the Street, Santelli asked former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers Ed Lazear to weigh in on jobs and the economy.  After commenting that job growth rate is very high, Lazear said: “That’s still well above what we need to keep up with population. I heard the discussion this morning about that. There really is no other interpretation. If you’re growing at a rate higher than the population growth rate it tells you we’re still recovering jobs and that’s good.”  Lazear was upbeat on jobs growth, wage growth as compared to inflation and overall growth of the economy.


newsweek--2019-01-18--California Governor Defies Government to Offer TSA Workers Unemployment Benefits as Airport Official

California Governor Defies Government to Offer TSA Workers Unemployment Benefits as Airport Officials Turn to Food Banks to Feed Employees

California's new governor, Gavin Newsom, told Sacramento airport workers affected by the government shutdown to apply for unemployment insurance.  Meanwhile, airport officials in San Francisco are turning to food banks to feed employees working without pay, a local charity told Newsweek.  “California is offering unemployment insurance to those hurt by the shutdown,” Newsom wrote on Facebook alongside a video of a Thursday meeting with Transportation Security Administration (TSA) employees at Sacramento International Airport. “The people of California should not have to suffer from Washington’s games.”  His remarks came after the sending of a Labor Department memo which said federal employees working without pay were ineligible for certain benefits.  According to The Sacramento Bee, the California Employment Development Department received the note regarding unemployment compensation for federal employees on Wednesday.  Newsom called the memo “about as extraordinary a letter I ever received” at the airport visit, the newspaper reported.  Benefits applications from federal employees in California jumped 200 percent during the first week of the shutdown, which hit its 28th day Friday, The Los Angeles Times stated.  The governor advised affected workers to apply for insurance benefits at a press conference last week. Some Californians furloughed or working without pay have turned to food banks because of missed paychecks.  Mark Seelig, spokesperson for the San Francisco-Marin Food Bank, told Newsweek that federal employees have been contacting the charity for help since January 10.  Officials at the San Francisco International Airport asked for food donations to feed around 100 staff members, Seelig said. The airport did not immediately respond to Newsweek's request for comment.  The food bank is also expecting to serve more than 400 people at a special distribution for U.S. Coast Guard workers and their families on Saturday in Novato, California.  Individual federal employees are being directed to the charity’s pantry network through its Find Food Locator tool, Seelig said. The food bank is also helping families apply for assistance from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), formerly known as food stamps. “Because of the missed paychecks, lower-wage government workers may now be eligible,” said Seelig.  The shutdown is causing “a real crisis of identity” for federal workers, Radha Muthiah, CEO of Washington, D.C.'s Capital Area Food Bank, told Newsweek Thursday. “[It’s] highlighting how many people, even those with steady jobs, are just a paycheck or two away from facing economic hardship."  The governor's office did not immediately respond to Newsweek's request for comment.


newyorkpost--2019-05-03--Job growth surged in April unemployment rate falls to 49-year low

Job growth surged in April, unemployment rate falls to 49-year low

Hiring jumped in April as U.S. employers added 263,000 jobs, a strong gain that suggests businesses have shrugged off any concerns the economy may slow this year.  The Labor Department says the unemployment rate fell to a new five-decade low of 3.6 percent, though that drop partly reflected an increase in the number of Americans who stopped looking for work. Average hourly pay rose 3.2 percent from the previous year, a healthy gain though unchanged from the previous month.  April’s figures show that solid economic growth is still encouraging robust hiring, nearly a decade into the economy’s recovery from the Great Recession. The expansion is set to become the longest in history in July. Businesses say they are struggling to find workers, but have taken a range of steps to fill jobs, including training more entry-level workers, loosening educational requirements and raising pay.


npr--2019-02-22--Military Families Experience High Stress Anxiety And Unemployment Report Says

Military Families Experience High Stress, Anxiety And Unemployment, Report Says

It is not easy to be married to a person in the military. Their spouses in 2017 experienced high levels of stress, anxiety, depression and unemployment, according to a survey sponsored by the Department of Defense and released Thursday.  The survey reveals a huge swath of nearly a million partners of active duty and reserve troops faced a variety of challenges due to their spouses' service while deployed on active duty or following a move triggered by a new deployment.  Of 367,706 people married to reservists, 92 percent reported feeling an increase in stress levels during their spouse's deployment, while 85 percent said they felt anxious or depressed. It also triggered feelings of isolation — 88 percent said they experienced loneliness.  Overall rates of marriage for military members generally match national rate — about 50 percent — although, active duty members seem to legally pair off in greater numbers than reserve members.  Still, the report finds female military members, who made up 16 percent of the active-duty force and 20 percent of the Selected Reserve, were less likely to be married than their male counterparts. They were about twice as likely to get divorced.  Dual-military marriages — service members married to other service members — accounted for 6.6 percent of all married couples.  The survey found the unemployment rate for active-duty spouses was exponentially higher in 2017 than the national average at the time. Nearly a quarter of the 612,127 active-duty spouses said they were unemployed, a far greater percentage than Americans outside the military. The unemployment rate for civilian men and women 20 years old and older dropped from 4.4 to 3.7 percent.  Additionally, those who had been forced to move due to a spouse's new deployment, were twice as likely to be unemployed. Finding a job often took seven months or more after a relocation, the survey found.  Unemployment rates among reservists' spouses appear to be much lower, comparatively, though at 8 percent it is still twice as high as nationwide statistics.  It's also unusually high considering more than half of reservists' spouses have a bachelor's degree or higher. The national unemployment rate for the same group hovered between 2 to 2.5 percent throughout 2017.


npr--2019-04-05--US Jobs Rebound To Solid Growth Unemployment Holds At 38 Percent

U.S. Jobs Rebound To Solid Growth; Unemployment Holds At 3.8 Percent  Updated at 8:45 a.m. ET  The U.S. labor market bounced back strongly in March after a lackluster showing in February.  U.S. employers added 196,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported Friday. That's a big improvement from February, when revised figures show just 33,000 jobs were added. But it's a slowdown from the last three months of 2018, when monthly job growth averaged 233,000.  "That number in February was a fluke," said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Markit. He says the March figure shows an economy that's still growing, albeit at a slower pace than last year.  The report showed modest declines in jobs in retail and manufacturing.  "We're talking about an economy that's slowing," said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton. "But for now, it should be another good year, where workers finally get to reap the benefits of a very long marathon of an expansion."  Don't see the graphic above? Click here.  The unemployment rate was unchanged in March at 3.8 percent.  With unemployment hovering near 50-year lows, forecasters say there's an upper limit on potential job growth.  "Businesses are having a hard time finding workers," said Sarah House, a senior economist at Wells Fargo. "If they're not able to fill these positions, that's going to reduce the overall pace of job gains as well."  A growing number of new hires are people who had left the workforce altogether but were drawn back by the surge in job openings and wages that are growing more than 3 percent per year.  "The fact that we're seeing wage growth accelerate, that's helped pull more workers into the labor force," House said. "While wages are picking up, maybe they're not picking up quite as fast as they would be otherwise because those additional workers are coming in."  Average hourly wages in March were up 3.2 percent from a year ago.  That has been a boon for business and helped to keep inflation in check.  "One of the complaints we hear all the time from our customers is a shortage of workers," Behravesh said. "If, in fact, what this extremely low unemployment rate is doing is encouraging people who had given up or who weren't that interested in looking for a job to come back into the labor force, that does mean that we can continue going down this path before wage inflation and eventually price inflation take off."


npr--2019-10-04--Hiring Steady As Employers Add 136000 Jobs Unemployment Dips To 35

Hiring Steady As Employers Add 136,000 Jobs; Unemployment Dips To 3.5%

Updated at 10 a.m. ET  U.S. employers added 136,000 jobs in September — a sign of continued resilience in the labor market amid growing signals that the economy is losing steam.  The unemployment rate fell to 3.5% — the lowest since December 1969 — but the pace of hiring has slowed from last year. The jobless rate was 3.7% in August.  Job gains for the two previous months were revised up by a total of 45,000.  "We were on high alert for the risk of a nasty surprise, which didn't materialize," said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.com.  An index of manufacturing activity released on Tuesday showed the factory sector contracting for the second consecutive month. Factories shed 2,000 jobs in September.  Don't see the graphic above? Click here.  The much-larger services side of the economy continued to grow in September but at a significantly slower pace. Private sector employers added 114,000 jobs during the month.  "The air continues to come out of the labor market, but it has not totally deflated," said economist Nick Bunker of Indeed Hiring Lab.  While government agencies added a total of 22,000 jobs, only 1,000 were temporary census workers. In August, the Census Bureau hired 25,000 temporary workers.  Retailers continued to cut jobs, losing more than 11,000 in September.  "Amid this narrative that the weakness is concentrated specifically in the manufacturing sector, it's now clearly spread to other parts of the economy," said senior economist Tim Quinlan of Wells Fargo Securities.  Factories are especially sensitive to global forces, including the trade war. But mounting tariffs have also taken a toll on consumers' confidence.  "To the extent that they start scaling back their outlays, not just on goods that are impacted by the tariffs but also any of their other service-related spending, that's now having a knock-on effect in the broader services economy," Quinlan said.  Average hourly wages over the past year have increased by 2.9%. That's down from 3.2% in the 12 months ending in August.  "The best of wage growth may have already been seen during this economic expansion," Hamrick said.  "We're not seeing as much movement in wages as we'd want," said Becky Frankiewicz, president of the temporary services firm ManpowerGroup North America. "Given supply and demand, we'd expect to see more."  Don't see the graphic above? Click here.  Job gains and economic growth have downshifted from a year ago. The economy grew at an annual rate of just 2% in the second quarter. And forecasters say growth in the just-ended third quarter may have been even lower. Monthly job gains over the past three months have averaged 157,000, compared with an average of 189,000 jobs in the same period a year ago.  The labor force participation rate held steady in September at 63.2%.  Quinlan is not projecting a recession, but he does expect growth to slow to an annual pace of just 1.5% over the next few quarters — barely above stall speed.  "It certainly feels like we're getting closer to that razor's edge," he said. "I get the sense a lot of financial market participants are just waiting for that next shoe to drop."


prepareforchange--2019-10-08--How Useful is the “Unemployment Rate”? Five Humans Who Don’t “Count”

The official “unemployment rate” in the US is nearing historic lows, according to a recent announcement. For young readers, especially, this may come as a surprise. You may see your friends and family struggling to find enough well-paying work to make ends meet, and you may have personally experienced the frustration of wanting a job but not finding one.  Your experience may not be as out of the ordinary as the official numbers indicate.  The “unemployment rate” is the result of assumptions and calculations by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and is cited in a range of claims by economists and politicians. But most pundits don’t know how it’s calculated, let alone what changes in that key statistic might indicate.  The unemployment rate is just 3.7 percent. Does that mean that 96 percent of Americans are going to work this morning? Not even close.  How the Unemployment Rate Is Calculated  All percentages are expressions of the ratio of one thing relative to something else. The “unemployment rate” only counts “labor force participants”—about 63 percent of the population in 2019.  Non-citizens working here and others working “off the books” won’t show up; neither do active-duty members of the military (though other kinds of federal employees do). People classified as disabled or who are institutionalized or incarcerated aren’t “labor force participants,” nor are retirees or full-time students. People who’ve been unemployed so long they’re no longer actively looking (some states require job search hours to be reported) are considered “discouraged workers” and dropped from labor force calculations.  In short, BLS data are fallible measures that diagnose only part of our nation’s job market health.  To illustrate the kind of human diversity behind the sterile statistics, consider the following employment situations. These individuals may not “count” in the column our intuition would predict.  Anita’s days are filled with work, but not the kind that counts as a “job” for BLS. She’s a personal chef and a chauffeur, a home health care aide to her disabled father-in-law, and daycare provider for her two toddlers. She’s a one-woman cleaning and maintenance crew for their family home. If she paid someone else to do these tasks, or did them in someone else’s home, her middle-class earning value would be tabulated. But Anita’s productivity isn’t seen in the national employment tally.  John was laid off from a union manufacturing job four years ago. Since then, he’s applied for hundreds of jobs, interviewed and been rejected dozens of times. He struggles with chronic pain and, briefly, with an addiction to prescribed pain meds. His GED doesn’t qualify him for the kind of job where he could sit at a desk, and his pain doesn’t allow him to take available jobs in nearby warehouses and service stations. John wants to work, but isn’t considered “unemployed” because he’s been out of the workforce too long.  Charlotte graduated last May with a bachelors’ degree in Spanish, but hasn’t been able to find a job as a translator, as she’d hoped. She’s saving up to move to a city where specialized work is more available, but it will take her another few months. She’s saving money by living at home and waiting tables several nights a week, but her income wouldn’t be sufficient to pay her bills living independently. Charlotte is qualified for higher-paying, more interesting, more socially valuable work than she is currently doing, and would love to work more hours. She’s counted as “employed” even though it feels more like temporary unemployment to her.  Matías is a full-time graduate student who runs a thriving business out of the university library, tutoring younger students and helping them with papers and essays. He also has a 20-hour-per week federal work-study position in the biology department, and shovels snow or cuts grass on each school break. Matías will graduate with no debt and earns an above-average $30,000 annually, but his informal employment arrangements and student status make him invisible to BLS statisticians.  Angel is a “gig worker” or a “side hustler,” as her primary work, and sets her own hours by contracting through Uber, Grubhub, Roadie, and Instacart. She recently worked as an administrative assistant and could easily get a similar position, but prefers the flexible scheduling and satisfaction of being her own boss. No company claims Angel on its payroll, and she files taxes as an independent contractor, one of several “alternative arrangement” sticking points in BLS data.  The BLS “official rate” is further complicated when broken out for different groups. The current unemployment rate for college graduates is 2.4 percent, but that won’t tell us who is working in the field they studied, or how many masters’ degree candidates are tending bar. The unemployment rate for teens 16-19 is 12.1 percent but a large majority of those enrolled in high school or college don’t figure into that total.  When we hear the national figures bandied about by champions and critics, we may assume it tells us more than the statistic reasonably can. People choose, or fall into, a wide variety of arrangements that don’t track with statistical expectations of work or seeking work. The nature of work, and what people want out of it, is changing. Seek the kind of work you love, and the situation that suits you best. Nationwide statistical measures don’t encompass the diversity of available opportunities. BLS data can’t capture the ingenious and unexpected ways people find to provide value to each other, invest their time and talents, and create wealth. Data are not destiny. Fickle, bureaucratic statistics don’t determine your life’s potential—you do. Dr. Laura Williams teaches communication strategy to undergraduates and executives. She is a passionate advocate for critical thinking, individual liberties, and the Oxford Comma. This article was sourced from FEE.org  Disclaimer: We at Prepare for Change (PFC) bring you information that is not offered by the mainstream news, and therefore may seem controversial. The opinions, views, statements, and/or information we present are not necessarily promoted, endorsed, espoused, or agreed to by Prepare for Change, its leadership Council, members, those who work with PFC, or those who read its content. However, they are hopefully provocative. Please use discernment! Use logical thinking, your own intuition and your own connection with Source, Spirit and Natural Laws to help you determine what is true and what is not. By sharing information and seeding dialogue, it is our goal to raise consciousness and awareness of higher truths to free us from enslavement of the matrix in this material realm.