Predict Happiness
[Happiness](https://texonom.com/happiness-c5af5db857e141929c47d83777209c15) 


### major life decisions depend critically on “happiness forecasts”
- how accurate are our future predictions
- what are the common mistakes & biases
# Affective forecasting
> Which Predict of
> - valence (good/bad)
> - specific emotions
> - intensity & duration
> **prediction overestimate future duration and intensity - NA also**

> ![](https://www.notion.so/image/https%3A%2F%2Fs3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com%2Fsecure.notion-static.com%2F753a7f0b-cda4-4266-a04c-92eabe6ee2fd%2FUntitled.png?table=block&id=9c61f6ec-3122-4b75-a6d6-12a3b021e251&cache=v2)

Without actual experience, making an accurate preference prediction by just imagining is very difficult - ex. **diversification** **bias**
> **diversification** **bias**: diversity do not give happiness


### Cold & Hot
1. ***Cold state ***(Self -prediction) - very often when we make prediction
2. ***Hot state*** (Experience)
<details><summary>

**Most Common Error**</summary>

- we pay too much attention to a few salient features - things that stand out (attractive)
> - Other co-occurring changes
> - **immune neglect** - Our natural ability to adapt & cope
</details>

**Important is matching - if will experience cold → choose cold, experience hot → choose hot**
> will you take grueling chemotherapy to live 3 more months? 
> 10% versus actually 42%


# Peak and End
### This is not forecast, related to revisit
**Excessive Weight on Climax or Finale**
people tend to over-rely on salient moments (climax, finale), rather than weigh all moments equally in evaluating an event
> “James Dean” Effect - Dream as if you will live forever
> Live as if you will die today
> Prefer Peek even life end either


# Overestimate
People living in California are more happier than Midwest? → no difference
how happy would you be if your romantic relation breaks up (BU)? → no difference
How happy would you be after getting or not getting tenure? → less difference
<details><summary>

**Most Common errors**</summary>

- Immune neglectoverestimate the affective reactions
- Focalism - fail to consider the consequences of other changes
</details>


> like this living great house do not make people happy


## De-focalizing
### Kind of corrigibility
remind other factors that effect their future happiness - think more realistic
### de-focalizing
**remind details **: effective to not overestimates future events
change expectation

## Potential cause of misprediction
> - joint evaluation (JE) modeduring prediction : ***compar*****e** multiple options & scenarios
> - Single evaluation (SE) modeactual experience : takes place only in the option chosen (***do not compare***)

> ![](https://www.notion.so/image/https%3A%2F%2Fs3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com%2Fsecure.notion-static.com%2F89532f67-3246-4fc3-a12c-47a461ccb9b0%2FUntitled.png?table=block&id=55d1b712-67c0-4934-b872-de685f8856a1&cache=v2)



When in JE "***quantitative difference***" is overestimated
**choice is occur at JE usually by quantity difference of various options (qualitative factor neglect which are important for happiness)**
> qualitative at SE and quantitative at JE needed


## Acquisition vs. Consumption
Acquisition experience(or satisfaction) : ***relative - *****learned preference - has mean by other**
consumption experience(or satisfaction) : ***absolute***** - inherit preference - has mean itself**
- Gab between this two make misprediction
- relative comparison are not available then absolute value is important

## Other Errors
### 1. Lay rationalism
<details><summary>

want to seem rational by other people's sight **(quantity > quality)**</summary>

in here ***quality*** is emotional value
</details>


### 2. distinction bias
people over predict how much happiness two different values will bring (in JE) - **easy to catch quantitative**
**positive task, large reward < negative task, small reward - contradict to expectation**

# Summary
we are accurate about events make happiness but do not accurate about the intensity and duration 
- This means frequency is important
- happiness is SE, not JE - don’t overestimate quantitative difference→ do not sacrifice quality to get quantity
**Nothing you focus on now will make much difference to your long-term SWB - so do not over adjust to life, chase your passion**



