WASHINGTON, DC — A view of Nationals Park from the Hampton Inn’s Top of the Yards rooftop bar on April 1, 2016, while the Nationals were playing the Minnesota Twins. (Photo by Fritz Hahn/The Washington Post)

Rain is inevitable on Thursday as the latest in a conveyor of cold fronts charges through the region. But I am cautiously optimistic the Nationals will be able play their home opener.

[Should the MLB schedule early-season games to avoid wintry weather?]

The bulk of the rain should fall through early afternoon Thursday

Models are in a good agreement that a slug of rain, possibly heavy for a time, will come through during the morning to early afternoon hours.

Simulated radar high resolution NAM model 11 a.m. Thursday. (WeatherBell.com)

Models *currently* don’t show much rain mid-afternoon into the evening

After the morning-early afternoon rain passes, models are in a good agreement that any additional rainfall is light and inconsequential. The European and GFS models simulate less than 0.1 inches of rain between 2 and 8 p.m. Thursday.

European model

Rainfall forecast from European model 2 p.m. to 8 p.m. Thursday. (StormVistaWxModels.com)

GFS model

Rainfall forecast from GFS model 2 p.m. to 8 p.m. Thursday. (StormVistaWxModels.com)

In other words, from mid-afternoon Thursday into the early evening, any rain showers should be widely scattered, short-lived, and probably won’t amount to much. Skies may even brighten.

Could the timing of the rain shift between now and Thursday? Yes. Could showers be heavier and last longer than these models suggest? Sure.

I wouldn’t say the game is in the clear at this point.

What will temperatures and wind be like?

The culprit for the rain is a strong cold front coming into the area, but temperatures probably won’t fall markedly until overnight Thursday, some time after the game.

Temperatures during the game should starting off around 60 degrees and gradually fall back into the mid-50s by the late innings. If the sun manages to come out at all Thursday afternoon, it could be slightly warmer than this.

European model forecast temperature at 5 p.m. Thursday. (StormVistaWxModels.com)

Winds will be steady out of the west, at around 10-20 mph, but nothing too extreme the way it looks now.

This forecast is low confidence, so keep an eye on our blog for updates over the next two days.