RESPECTED election analyst Antony Green is predicting the Coalition will get the seats it needs to form government.

While the official seat count still sits at 63 for the Coalition, the ABC analyst said he thought he could “pretty accurately predict” the Coalition would achieve between 75 to 77 seats.

“All the seats which are in doubt are starting to trend towards the Coalition so 76 may be an underestimate, it may be 77, we’ll see,” Mr Green said during an appearance on the ABC 7pm news bulletin.

He said the Coalition definitely had 73 seats and it needed to gain three of the six seats still in play, to form government.

The seats of Capricornia, Herbert and Flynn were the seats to watch as the Labor Party was well ahead in these seats a week ago, but they were all “line-ball” now.

“All the trend in the postal votes has been towards the Coalition and at this stage they will certainly overtake Labor on the remaining postal votes and then it comes down to absent and pre-polls,” Mr Green explained.

“At this stage it looks like the Coalition should get to 76 though I must say on the chamber it is 76 plus or minus one so we’re saying between 75 and 77.”

ABC’s election computer updated its seat election guide to predict the Coalition on 76 seats, compared to 69 seats for Labor.

ABC election analyst @AntonyGreenABC predicts Coalition will win between 75 and 77 seats #ausvotes https://t.co/yhsqQSI0PM — ABC News (@abcnews) July 8, 2016

Insiders host Barrie Cassidy also appeared and said Australians could now say the country had a government.

“Technically, even though Forde in Queensland is still in doubt, both sides of politics concede that Forde will go to the Coalition,” he said.

In another promising sign, the Australian Electoral Commission removed Forde from its list of close seats on Friday night.

“We can for the first time this week, tonight, we can say we have a Prime Minister, we have a Government,” Cassidy said, adding “we have one at this point relying on the independents Cathy McGowan and Bob Katter”.

The two independents have said they would back a Coalition government, ensuring Malcolm Turnbull will continue to be Prime Minister.

But Cassidy said if Mr Turnbull had been able to declare victory on Saturday night it would have avoided an uncertain and unstable week.

It comes as Labor’s lead in the seat of Flynn dropped to just seven votes, and its lead in Capricornia fell to 175 votes indicating the seats were likely to go to the Coalition.

The Coalition has already won 63 seats, and is ahead in one other. It only needs three more to form a majority government.

INDEPENDENTS GUARANTEE SUPPLY

While the Coalition is looking increasingly likely to hit its 76 seat target, Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership is looking secure after three independents said they would back him if the Coalition falls short.

Yesterday, independent Kennedy MP Bob Katter said he would guarantee supply and confidence for the Coalition if there was a hung parliament. Today he was joined by Indi MP Cathy McGowan. Denison MP Andrew Wilkie has also said he would not vote against a Budget supply bill.

Ms McGowan appeared before the media today after meeting with the PM and confirmed she would support the Coalition, although she will continue to vote on legislation based on its merits.

Andrew Wilkie released a statement saying: “I will continue to vote on parliamentary business on its merits, and consequently not support a vote against budget supply or confidence in the government unless clearly warranted, for example in a case of malfeasance”.

He said there was “no conceivable way” that Bill Shorten would be in a position to form government and his focus had turned to doing what he could to foster stable government.

“To be absolutely clear, I remain steadfast that I will not enter into any deal with any party in order to help them form government,” he said.

“But nor will I be destructive, especially at a time like this when more than ever the country needs level heads and certainty.”

Earlier Cathy McGowan, who defeated the Liberals’ Sophie Mirabella in the seat of Indi, said she would offer supply and confidence.

“While maintaining my complete independence, I am prepared to contribute to the stability of the 45th parliament by continuing with my past practice of supporting the government of the day,” Ms McGowan said.

This means she will guarantee supply and confidence for the government, but will still consider each piece of legislation on its merits.

When asked whether she had asked for anything in return for her support, Ms McGowan said: “I asked for goodwill, I asked for regularly being in touch with each other, I asked for good governance and stability,” she said.

ABC election analyst Antony Green said this morning there was no doubt Malcolm Turnbull would be returned as prime minister.

“Malcolm Turnbull is the Prime Minister and will continue as Prime Minister,” he told ABC.

“In that sense, they have won, it’s just simply a matter of whether they have got a majority or not.”

BILL SHORTEN HOLDS ON TO LEADERSHIP

Meanwhile, Bill Shorten has kept the Labor leadership after a vote today.

The Labor caucus passed a motion of confidence in Mr Shorten and his leadership team.

The motion, moved by Anthony Albanese at a meeting in Canberra on Friday, also authorised the leadership team to “negotiate with crossbench members to advance Labor’s agenda in the 45th parliament”.

It applauded Mr Shorten and the Labor team for holding the coalition to account “for their extreme right wing agenda” while also advancing Labor’s positive agenda.

Earlier Mr Shorten named the remaining “close counts” as being in the seats of Hindmarsh, Capricornia and Herbert.

“This caucus can gather in a spirit of some reasonable optimism,” he said.

“We are united, we are determined and we are most certainly positive. Unlike our opponents, we fought this election as a team.”

He said the campaign had delivered the second-biggest swing against a first-term government in Australian history.

WHY THE COALITION IS ACTING SO COCKY

Looking at the seat count it all seems pretty close but numbers can be very misleading.

Even though the Coalition seems short of declaring victory, this didn’t stop one minister from trumpeting that the election was in the bag.

“We have won again. That’s our sixth victory out of eight in the last 20 years,” Mr Pyne declared on Channel 9’s Today this morning.

“We will form a majority Government and we’re also making arrangements with some of the crossbenchers for supply and confidence, so we will have a solid Government.”

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has not repeated the claims, although he has always maintained confidence in the Coalition forming a majority government.

The two party preferred count this morning showed there were just eight votes separating the Coalition and Labor. While this has grown to 450 votes, it still seems very close.

But ABC election analyst Antony Green has explained why the Coalition has reason to be confident.

According to the ABC election calculator, the Coalition has 73 seats in the bag.

On paper that’s three seats short of a majority and there’s only six seats still in play. Even more worryingly, Labor is ahead in all of these seats except the Queensland seat of Forde.

So why the bluster?

In three of the seats where Labor is leading, it does so by less than 700 votes. So with postal and other votes favouring the Coalition, it could get over the line in the Queensland seats of Capricornia, Flynn and Herbert.

It only needs to win two of these three seats to form government.

Then there’s the independent factor.

The veteran north Queensland MP Bob Katter met with Mr Turnbull on Thursday and said he would support the Coalition for budget supply and confidence when parliament returned in August.

He was joined by Indi MP Cathy McGowan and Denison MP Andrew Wilkie today.

This basically means they will support the Coalition in forming government, and puts three extra votes in their pocket.

As Mr Green pointed out, if the Coalition is leading in the seats of Capricornia, Flynn and Herbert by the end of today’s counting, it all but guarantees a majority government.

“I have 73 seats (for the Coalition), I have them ahead in another and I have them well on track to win — possibly winning two of the other three seats which would give them majority,” he said.

“Maybe if they win all three, it would be 77.”

CURRENT SEAT COUNT

Here is the current vote count as of Friday 7.57pm AEST from the Australian Electorate Commission website:

• Forde, Queensland — Liberal National Party’s lead has doubled to 783 votes

• Flynn, Queensland — Labor’s lead of 674 votes has dropped to just seven votes

• Herbert, Queensland — Labor leading by 348 votes

• Capricornia, Queensland — Labor’s lead of 476 votes has dropped to 175 votes

• Cowan, Western Australian — Labor’s lead narrowed to 488 votes

• Hindmarsh, South Australia — Labor’s lead has grown to 177 votes

Although Cowan and Hindmarsh are also close, the postal and other votes are not strongly swinging to the Liberal party.

WHAT DOES GUARANTEEING SUPPLY MEAN?

Two independents have publicly supported the Coalition forming government, saying they will “guarantee supply and confidence”.

This means they will vote with the Coalition on key bills authorising the government to spend money and keep paying its staff.

They will also vote to support the Coalition if a “no-confidence motion” is introduced by the Opposition. If the government doesn’t survive a no-confidence motion this means the PM has to resign or call for the House of Representatives to be dissolved.

PYNE 19

Mr Turnbull’s leadership may be safe today, but could a new challenger for his crown have already emerged?

On Today on Friday morning, host Ben Fordham suggested the success of the ‘Kevin 07’ election campaign could be repeated with ‘Pyne one-nine’. Albo even got in on the joke holding up a poster emblazoned with Pyne 19 and claiming Parliament was plastered with them.

Hottest item in #auspol is #Pyne19 shirts. If you want 1 tell us how much you adore @cpyne 140 characters or less pic.twitter.com/Azr33Ke3XA — BenFordham (@BenFordham) July 7, 2016

Asked if he might consider a challenge to whoever was Liberal leader in 2019, Mr Pyne said: “I am a very loyal team man. I strongly support Malcolm Turnbull going forward as Prime Minister and I look forward to being part of his team in the leadership group in Canberra.”

It may have been a dry answer but even Mr Pyne couldn’t help but eventually chuckle at the prospect of Pyne one-nine.

‘BACK AT THE POLLS SOON’

A brutal Labor Opposition is likely as Mr Turnbull prepares to create a minority Government or one with a puny majority.

And senior Labor figures are warning the instability is likely to produce yet another election — soon — as the Coalition struggles to deal with the cross bench member and its own internal dissent.

“I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we are back at the polls very soon,” Labor front bencher Anthony Albanese told ABC radio. “Definitely much, much sooner than three years, because of (the Coalition’s) failure to provide that leadership.”

Labor Deputy Leader Tanya Plibersek said “a very unstable” Turnbull Government would probably be returned.

“This is a pretty great result” from the election for Labor, Ms Plibersek told ABC radio.

She said: “We’ve got a deeply divided unstable Government and we need to be

prepared to back to the polls sooner rather than later.”

LABOR LEADERSHIP

Mr Shorten’s position as Opposition Leader is expected to be reconfirmed on Friday as the Labor caucus meets in Canberra in a sign the party is close to conceding it will not be able to form Government.

Party rules dictate that the leadership is thrown open in the event of an election loss and a ballot of grassroots and caucus members is held if there are two contestants.

Despite speculation immediately after Saturday’s election that Mr Albanese might challenge, he now won’t be standing and will instead throw his weight behind Mr Shorten.

However, Mr Shorten will face pressure to deliver the Left an extra frontbencher.

In preparation for opposition, Labor figures are threatening to treat a minority Turnbull administration in the same way the Labor Government of Julia Gillard was treated after the 2010 election.

She was ranked the head of an “illicit image” administration without authority by the Coalition Opposition of Tony Abbott.

On Thursday, Mr Shorten also acknowledged that a Coalition Government was shaping up as the most likely outcome.

“What I am making very clear here is that if Mr Turnbull is dragged across the line narrowly, his problems, and unfortunately Australia’s, are only just beginning,” he said.

KEY INDEPENDENT BACKS TURNBULL

Despite increasing confidence he can reach the magic 76 number, Mr Turnbull is still preparing for a hung parliament.

On Wednesday, he met with potential kingmaker Nick Xenophon in Sydney and yesterday spoke to re-elected MP Bob Katter and other independents in Queensland, also taking the time to pose for selfies with Brisbane locals — a smile we haven’t seen in days.

On Thursday, Mr Katter declared his support for the government after “amicable” talks with Mr Turnbull. But the independent said he maintained his right to change his position at any time and his support depended on several political issues.

Asked if he thought Mr Turnbull was listening to him yesterday, he laughed: “When you’re on 74 seats and you need 76, I thought he was listening very closely.”

His promise will make the Prime Minister feel even more comfortable in his position.

CREDIT RATING CONCERNS

“I am very confident, very confident indeed that we will form ... a majority government in our own right, but I am, of course, talking to the crossbenchers as well,” Mr Turnbull told reporters, referring to the independent and minor party politicians who sit between the two main parties and could hold the balance of power in a divided parliament.

“But so far the counting trends are very positive from our point of view.”

Whether other independent MPs will support the Coalition is not yet certain. Senator Xenophon told the ABC that he, Katter and Jacqui Lambie, “share a concern about Australian jobs and Australian manufacturing and Australian farming land ... when it comes to our foreign investment.”

Counting in the Senate also continues with a possible outcome looking like the Coalition on 30 seats, Labor 27, Greens nine, Nick Xenophon Team three and other independents seven.

The state of the nation is still far from stable, with Standard & Poor’s downgrading Australia’s triple-A long term credit rating outlook to negative on Thursday, thanks to growing fiscal vulnerabilities.

Mr Shorten said the S & P statement was a vote of no confidence in the PM.

Treasurer Scott Morrison, who has said he’s confident the Coalition won’t need crossbenchers to form a minority government, admitted yesterday that “the report has been issued on the basis of the election, they have made that very clear.”

Nevertheless, Mr Morrison insisted the government’s focus on a strong economy was the correct response.

“It would not be the responsible thing to do in this environment to take policy decisions that increase the deficit,” he said, in a clear dig at Labor’s budget. “I have no intention of postponing the pace of fiscal consolidation.

“What the Australian people want to be reassured of is that there is a clear plan.”

Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen saw it differently, saying the report was “a vote of no confidence in this Government’s ability to deal with the Budget situation.”

He also criticised Mr Turnbull’s decision to call a double dissolution election, saying it had increased the likelihood of political instability.

— with AAP