RN

In general we regularly produce reports on the socioeconomic impact of the crisis. We use different methodologies. But essentially we make a comparison between our baseline scenario — as if the crisis had not happened — and what has actually transpired.

Basically, the economy has been systematically destroyed. First, Syria’s capital stock is lost. There has been direct destruction as a result of the armed conflict, and there is currently a great deal of idle capital in Syria due to the security conditions. The second point is the loss of human capital, either because of displacement, migration, or because of death and injury. We have lost a lot of skilled workers. And we have lost a huge amount of human capital in Syria.

Third, there has been a loss of infrastructure: there was a huge infrastructure for health, education, telecommunications, industry — we have lost it, and we have lost the networks between some Syrian markets and other markets both inside and outside Syria.

Furthermore, especially after the armed conflict began, people migrated out from Syria, and there has been outflow of capital, especially private capital. The only reliable remaining network for the economy has been government salaries. The government continues to pay its salaries. So this is one part of the economy that continues to function. The other part is the agricultural sector, which continued producing well until last year. But then it took a turn for the worse, and as a result food security deteriorated greatly in the country.

All the basic pillars of the economy have been partly destroyed. And these used to be, at least to a large extent, its sources of growth. This is one aspect of the economic problems.

The other part is the creation of a violence economy — a lot of people have started to contribute to the fighting, and they now have incentives from smuggling, killing, and widespread theft across the country. And the institutions which had been central to long-term growth are in bad shape. And of course this social movement, which started as a peaceful movement, has been diverted from the main road and now we are facing a loss of social capital.

Furthermore, there has been a deterioration in social services, such as education. We have lost some of Syria’s main strengths, like an educated population. Now most of the new generation is outside the educational system, and outside the reach of the health services, too.

Fragmentation within Syria as a result of the armed conflict is pervasive, and now we have the phenomenon of fundamentalism. We call those contributing to the armed conflict subjugating powers. They are not just inside Syria. They are inside and outside, and they are financing and supporting the influence of tyranny and fundamentalism.

This is destroying the social fabric of the Syrian people, the culture of Syria, and of course destroying the idea of a future. Most people are trying to leave the country, and so stabilization is not possible.