Are you worried about the digital TV transition? Concerned about whether consumers will be confused now that Congress has switched the last day of analog broadcasting from February 17 to June 12? Nervous that the government's set-top box coupon program has run out of money despite having a waiting list of 3.7 million people?

Well, here's something else for DTV nail biters to chew on: a top retailing expert says that the nation's electronic appliances stores could sell out of analog-to-digital converter boxes around, roughly, this month.

"The worst case scenario is that there only 3 million boxes in current inventory and daily redemptions stay at 115,000," Consumer Electronics Association Vice President Michael Petricone told the Federal Communications Commission on Thursday. "We will then run out of box inventory by the end of February." Maybe even sooner, he suggested.

But that's probably not what will happen, Petricone assured the FCC. Chances are that the stores will run out of the boxes in 52 days (from when Petricone spoke on Thursday). Then, around the Ides of April, new product will start showing up the shelves.

How does Petricone figure this latest cliffhanger? Most converter box manufacturers, bless their souls, actually believed the government when it passed a law making February 17 the last day of analog broadcasting. So they stopped producing the boxes around January of this year. CEA estimates that, at present, there are about three to six million boxes in the stores.

At this point, Petricone warns, "it is extremely difficult for manufacturers and retailers to anticipate demand levels for boxes between now and June 12." That's the new last day of analog broadcasting, as established by the recently enacted DTV Delay Act.

Unknown variables include when Congress will pass the White House's proposed stimulus package, which contains $650 million to replenish the National Telecommunications and Information Administration's (NTIA) coupon program. The Delay Act also lets the NTIA issue replacements for expired coupons, but only after the program is refunded by Congress.

If the NTIA suddenly gets funded and issues all its coupons, consumers could deplete the stores within weeks. But Petricone predicts that manufacturers will probably be able to fast track the production of the boxes, in large part because the recession has shut down demand for other products. The economic downturn has created "a virtually unprecedented level of excess manufacturing capacity," which means that "manufacturing lines can be turned on immediately" for set top boxes.

"Therefore," Petricone concludes, "we believe that new converter boxes will arrive on store shelves in mid-April." As of this writing, the Senate is expected to pass its stimulus bill on Tuesday. It will then have to be reconciled with the House package.