Market expectations for an interest-rate hike before the end of 2015 have fallen sharply this autumn, following weaker-than-expected economic data and rising fears of a global growth slowdown.

The Fed-funds futures market is now pricing in a 5% probability of a rate increase in October and a 30% probability of a rate increase in December The first fully priced-in rate hike has now been pushed out to March 2016, according to the CME Group’s Fed Watch Tool.

But if history serves as a guide, the market is probably still getting it wrong, according to Torsten Slok, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank.

Since 2009, the market has continuously overestimated the Fed’s rate-hike intentions, getting caught in continuous cycles of anticipating a rate rise and readjusting as the Fed subsequently stayed put, Slok said, in a note late last week.

As the following chart shows, Fed-funds futures have been predicting a Fed liftoff for the past six years—and have been proven wrong every time.

The dotted lines represent the projected Fed-funds rate, based on Fed-funds futures prices, while the red line shows the actual Fed-funds rate.

Deutsche Bank The market’s rate-hike expectations (dotted lines) have overestimated the Fed’s actions (red line).

Forecasts by Wall Street economists about the benchmark 10-year rate have also been too optimistic for a very long time, the Deutsche Bank report showed.

For more than a decade, as the following chart shows, forecasts for the 10-year rate from the Fed’s quarterly survey of professional forecasters came in consistently about 60 basis points higher than the actual 10-year yield.

Deutsche Bank The projected 10-year rate (dotted lines) has constantly overestimated the actual 10-year yield (blue line) by about 60 basis points.

Currently, the Philly Fed survey projects a 2.5% yield by the end of 2015, according to the report. That’s about 46 basis points above the current 10-year yield TMUBMUSD10Y, -0.98% which on Monday hovered around 2.037%, according to Tradeweb.

Making an accurate prediction about future interest rates might become even more difficult as Fed policy makers—in the name of transparency—express conflicting opinions on monetary policy.

When Stanford University economist John Taylor, a well-known expert on monetary policy, told New York Fed President William Dudley on Thursday that the Fed is creating confusion in the market, he echoed the views of many interest-rate strategists.

“It has recently become cloudier as Fed officials have been taking diverging views,” said Ninh Chung, head of investment strategy at SVB Asset Management.

“The data remain uneven and inconsistent, so you can see an argument to support both sides. Fed officials’ conflicting views just cause more volatility,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors.

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