Mayor John Tory was the main attraction at a Scarborough town hall Monday evening that felt more like a rally where he directly implored residents to support the plan to build a single subway stop extension costing at least $3.35 billion. “I’m going to try and make the case to you for why what we’re doing is the right thing to do,” Tory told the room of more than 150 at the Centennial Recreation Centre in Scarborough. He asked them to contact his council colleagues with that message.

Mayor John Tory speaks to Scarborough resident Sandra Campbell at a town hall on transit at the Centennial Recreation Centre in Scarborough Monday evening. ( JENNIFER PAGLIARO / Toronto Star )

“We are ending years of indecision and waffling with transit across the city.” Tory framed an upcoming vote at council to advance the subway plan as the last stand in an ongoing “war” waged by advocates of an alternative light-rail plan that would see a network of LRTs built across the region –– including a seven-stop LRT that was to be fully funded by the province to replace the aging Scarborough RT. He was joined by local politicians from both city hall and the province who also pushed support for a subway, citing projected future job growth in a region that has fallen well behind other urban centres in both commercial and residential development.

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“I think we’ve waited long enough,” said Scarborough Centre MPP and Ontario’s Economic Development Minister Brad Duguid. “The time for talk is over.” Those arguments received raucous applause from the local crowd. But when it came time for questions, the politicians were met with anxiety from residents over access to new transit. Many asked about the commitment to a 17-stop LRT along Eglinton Ave. East that was promised as part of the revised subway plan, whether it could be built at the same time, and if the city would ensure it would be funded. Last month, a staff report announced the cost of the one-stop extension had increased to $3.35 billion, not including financing and other necessary costs that staff calculations show could push the cost above the allotted $3.56 billion in funding from all three levels of government. Tory and senior staff originally promised both the subway extension and the Eglinton East LRT could be funded within that envelope. But with increases to cost estimates of the subway — what is still less than 5 per cent designed and at risk of further cost fluctuations — the LRT has been effectively priced out. The mayor has said he will look to the provincial and federal governments to make up the $1.6-billion funding shortfall, and earlier on Monday said without that line “we cannot truly serve the people of Scarborough.”

On Monday evening he said the major “impediment” to building both lines was “money.” Duguid — who told Tory the subway will be cancelled over his “dead body” — earlier told the Scarborough Mirror there is no additional money available from the province for the LRT. He made no pledges to finance the LRT Monday night.

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The city has applied for federal funding for the LRT line in the next round of infrastructure spending, which has yet to be announced. The list of funding requests forwarded from the city includes the TTC’s stated top priority project, the relief line for the overcrowded Yonge-University subway — which is estimated to cost at least $6.8 billion for the first leg and is thus far completely unfunded. One woman asked if there would be a new transit stop at Centennial College, which sponsored the event and whose Progress Ave. campus is located less than two kilometres from the recreation centre where the town hall was being held. Local councillor Glenn De Baeremaeker (Ward 38 Scarborough Centre) explained a station would not be built there. What was left unsaid is that the original plan to build a seven-stop LRT would have included a station at the Centennial College campus. With the subway, there is no plan to connect the school to rapid transit. FACTS ON THE ONE-STOP SUBWAY EXTENSION How many stops is the Scarborough plan? After council flip-flopped on a plan for the province to fully fund a seven-stop LRT, it approved a three-stop subway from Kennedy Station to Sheppard Ave. in 2013. That was revised in January 2016 to a one-stop extension to the Scarborough Town Centre. The city is also now proposing to build a 17-stop LRT extension of the Crosstown line currently under construction from Kennedy Station to the University of Toronto Scarborough campus. How much does it cost? Three levels of governments originally dedicated $3.56 billion to the three-stop subway plan, funding that remains in place today. It was originally stated that a one-stop subway and 17-stop Eglinton East LRT could be funded in the same envelope. Now that the subway is estimated to cost at least $3.35 billion on its own, the LRT is at least $1.4 billion short on available funding. Who’s paying for it? The province committed $1.48 billion (in 2010 dollars) originally pledged to the LRT; the federal government committed $660 million; and the city is meant to contribute $910 million. Of that city contribution, the majority is being raised through a special property tax from all Toronto residents that began in 2014 and will continue for the next 30 years. How many people will ride the extension? Ridership during the rush hour in the busiest direction is expected to be 7,400 per hour in 2031 — well below the accepted minimum threshold for a subway of 15,000 people and the maximum capacity of 36,000 people. The capacity of an LRT is 2,000 to 15,000 people per hour depending on the configuration. The daily ridership of the planned subway extension is expected to be 30,800 in 2031 — less than the SRT’s current daily ridership of nearly 39,000. Will I get where I’m going faster? City staff have estimated up to five minutes will be saved by replacing the existing Scarborough RT with a one-stop subway extension. That doesn’t include the elimination of a transfer at Kennedy Station. It also doesn’t factor in the bus trips for individual users, who may spend more time on a bus getting to a rapid transit station with the one-stop plan. It also doesn’t consider or compare the travel time of the original plan to build a seven-stop LRT to replace the SRT. Hasn’t council already voted on this? Since May 2013, there have been at least seven key votes on Scarborough transit. Though subway proponents have tried to blame a delay on LRT advocates, the delay has been exclusively related to staff reports not being ready on time, additional review of subway options recommended by staff, and regular processes involved with billions-dollar infrastructure projects.

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