There are several different categories of software projects, as you say, the innovative ones might fit your definitions, but I&#x27;d argue that most don&#x27;t.<p>The most common kind of software projects I&#x27;ve encountered are very straightforward, mostly just CRUD with an interface + business logic, and reporting, or relatively straightforward websites. Those are the &quot;paint the room&quot; type of projects.<p>There are challenges with those kinds of projects, but they should be reasonably easy to estimate, as long as the team is somewhat familiar with their development tools.<p>Other kinds of projects ARE more difficult because they have unique or innovative elements (probably the case for a lot of startups). Those might be the &quot;paint a room on Mars&quot; kind of projects.<p>As an employee, I&#x27;ve encountered the first kind 90% of the time. As a startup founder, I have encountered a lot more unknowns, but I&#x27;ve still found my project reasonable to estimate.