&quot;The main issue is that the first experiment (Sun gone nova) is not repeatable, which makes it highly unsuitable for frequentist methodology&quot;<p>Is that the best they can come up with?<p>For all we know the probabiliy of the sun going Nova is zero.<p>And 1&#x2F;36 is not impossible. Hence the detector is lying.<p>Now, we can do the joke going the other way by thinking of another processes with conditional probabilities &quot;expertly guessed&quot;