Isn&#x27;t the point though that the gravitational wave observatories are looking specifically for &quot;black swans&quot; rather than just observing swans generally. So when a swan with a lower reflectivity is observed then it now fits the &quot;black swan&quot; profile. Could be just a swan covered in soot; you need more data to show that this swan is always black or that the lower reflectivity wasn&#x27;t caused by a measuring anomaly, etc.<p>I may have pushed the analogy too far!