The math here is interesting for the republicans. A candidate has to confirmed by the senate judiciary committee (11&#x2F;9 republican) then the whole senate (54&#x2F;46 if the independents go dem as usual).<p>The general consensus, however, is that the democrats have a good chance at winning back the senate.<p>So the question for republicans is, do they accept a moderate candidate now, or stall until the election and risk having a democratic senate (and president, but that race is far too early to have a sense of, unlike the senate), and take the heat for taking 3-4 times as long as usual to confirm a justice, and have any cases under review potentially go 4 to 4 on the court, which means the lower court rulings in those cases stand, or the justices can request that they be re-argued.<p>For the democrats, you&#x27;ve got the current situation vs a chance to get someone more liberal in during 20 days of obama + the next senate (although pushing a nominee through in jan 2017 would have terrible optics), or waiting. Your risk is that the republicans win the senate and the president.<p>My sense is that the democrats will put forth someone fairly moderate, but it&#x27;s hard to tell if the senate will stall it out or not. It likely depends on the nominee.<p>The Republicans hold all the cards, but the dems are probably in a slightly stronger position, because they only need two republican senators on the judiciary to decide that they&#x27;d rather not risk it, and two more in the full senate.