Maybe I&#x27;m misinterpreting you or you&#x27;re misinterpreting me, but I feel like I&#x27;m arguing against the concept of predicting the future. It&#x27;s absurd that this is even an argument.<p>And when I say the top 1% are significantly better at making predictions than the average person, I mean better in certainty and specificity.<p>Look at yours and spangry&#x27;s comments. Full of vagueness.<p>&quot;Appropriate to scream bloody murder&quot;.<p>About what exactly? It&#x27;s certainly appropriate to scream bloody murder about things that are happening. It would be nonsensical to scream bloody murder about something that isn&#x27;t happening.<p>&quot;the economic depression that will occur in the next 5 years will be started by bubbles popping in residential property markets&quot;<p>What a huge range of uncertainty. So when is this economic depression occurring? Tomorrow? 2017? 2021? What kind of economic depression? Minor? Major? Capable of plunging the world into the Great Depression? Such vague predictions are fundamentally worthless to the average person.