Germany led by Merkel has set itself up for trouble.<p>Cyprus and Greece have created a precedence for creditor bail-ins. Public finances are stretched due to refugee inflows and opposition to Merkel is growing even internally in her massive coalition government.<p>This setup may lead to something not predicted (ie. DB not getting the guarantees it needs or even a creditor bail-in) or more predictively the rise of left or right-wing non-established &#x2F; populist politics.