The research examines how long alleged conspiracies could &quot;survive&quot; before being revealed - deliberately or unwittingly - to the public at large.<p>Dr David Grimes, from Oxford University, devised an equation to express this, and then applied it to four famous collusions.<p>The equation developed by Dr Grimes, a post-doctoral physicist at Oxford, relied upon three factors: the number of conspirators involved, the amount of time that has passed, and the intrinsic probability of a conspiracy failing.<p>He then applied his equation to four famous conspiracy theories: The belief that the Moon landing was faked, the belief that climate change is a fraud, the belief that vaccines cause autism, and the belief that pharmaceutical companies have suppressed a cure for cancer.<p>Dr Grimes&#x27;s analysis suggests that if these four conspiracies were real, most are very likely to have been revealed as such by now.