&gt; liquidity drops, but doesn&#x27;t disappear<p>This would be the key sticking point - sure you could theoretically try to unload houses and close your positions at the first whiff of a downturn, but it seems to me that liquidity would dry up much quicker now than in 2008 (30% decrease in existing home sale volume from 2006-2007, bottoming out at ~50% decrease in 2010, so pretty drastic) given how much tighter the market is, as you describe yourself.<p>You can also bet that Blackstone, who is effectively providing your business a baseline risk free rate of return right now, would immediately close their rent-to-buy fund if they saw any downturn in the existing house rental market, which is ultimately powered by consumer income strength. So if we don&#x27;t see a meaningful increase in income, the tightness of housing liquidity would be my main concern in quickly offloading highly leveraged positions.<p>My medium-term outlook is that we will see the verticalization of existing urban cores - SF, downtown LA, NY, Miami, Chicago, Cincinnati, etc. We had a great boom of prosperity WWII that allowed for an unsustainable amount of suburbanization. We are now entering an era of cost-cutting, scale, and efficiency: suburbs will lose population due to their relatively high maintenance costs - roads, grids, plumbing, delivery, transportation. I&#x27;m not sure if diversification is the right strategy.