&gt; but Trump is probably not going to gain much more support than he already has, since he&#x27;s so extremely polarizing.<p>I doubt that&#x27;s true; that 31% is with the conservative establishment pouring an order of magnitude more money into the campaign of establishment candidates (particular Jeb Bush) that are getting no traction despite the vast spending; there&#x27;s already signs that significant parts of the establishment are coming around to Trump of the least-bad viable candidate (and others parts of the conservative establishment going to Cruz, who is similarly situated with regard to the establishment, and likewise seeing success despite the vastly greater spending and conservative establishment support for other candidates that are not gaining traction).<p>When the flood of conservative establishment resources that has been deployed <i>against</i> Trump&#x2F;Cruz begins being split <i>by</i> Trump and Cruz -- and most of it finally lines up behind one of them if, as seems likely, they secure the party nomination -- they&#x27;ll do much better than they do with those resources opposing them.