Great post. Couldn&#x27;t have said it any better myself. Point 3 is essential, IMHO. Superforecasting by Phillip Tetlock &amp; Dan Gardner [1] relates an excellent description of this process in the realm of human forecasting even though they don&#x27;t phrase it as a Bayesian approach. Essentially they found that those best able to predict world events continuously honed their estimates using an iterative process updating what really could be described as the priors of the superforcasters.<p>It&#x27;s an enlightening read as they describe some of the processes used to hone intuited estimates using an outward and inward looking processes. I&#x27;m going to have to look into what you mean by using intuition to judge independence. Any good sources on that?<p>[1]: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.m.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Superforecasting" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.m.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Superforecasting</a>