&gt; <i>I have a counterpoint- I bet that, given any risky endeavour, there are ALWAYS some naysayers&#x2F;doubters. So the probability that someone at an organization ends up being correct when a disaster occurs, is probably fairly high. Thus, just because you won the disaster prediction lottery, may not entitle you to as much acclaim as you might think.</i><p>Conversely, achieving success despite taking a great number of risks in the process, may not entitle you to the acclaim that you do get.