The conclusion absolutely follows from the assumption.  But there are two questions.<p>1. Is that a reasonable assumption to make?  (In a surprisingly wide variety of cases, yes.  But not always.)<p>2. How do we update the conclusion of the argument given a variety of other information that we have available to us?  For example we have a great deal of information about the US system of government, current political state, potential threats, and so on.