&gt; If everyone votes &quot;yes&quot;, one pirate deciding to vote &quot;no&quot; doesn&#x27;t affect their expected return.<p>If everyone knows what everyone else is going to do, then neither option is better or worse, sure. But where did you get this perfect knowledge from? Certainly you couldn&#x27;t deduce your situation.<p>And why is &#x27;no&#x27; <i>your</i> default choice: this isn&#x27;t a repeated game. You&#x27;re trying to decide what to vote, you don&#x27;t have a mind to change, at this stage. And neither does anyone else. Therefore, if everyone knows I can choose to vote either way, your situation is irrational.<p>You&#x27;re objecting to a problem that isn&#x27;t the one being considered.<p>It may well be that there is a compelling mathematical argument you&#x27;re trying to evoke, but at the moment you&#x27;re not actually putting it forward. You&#x27;re name-dropping, but not explaining. Well, not in a way I can follow, anyway.