Here are slides on the topic and the full math paper. But we dont go from a credible interval to a single number - we just report credible intervals. We find that to be the only honest choice.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.chrisstucchio.com&#x2F;pubs&#x2F;slides&#x2F;gilt_bayesian_ab_2015&#x2F;slides.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.chrisstucchio.com&#x2F;pubs&#x2F;slides&#x2F;gilt_bayesian_ab_2...</a><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.chrisstucchio.com&#x2F;blog&#x2F;2013&#x2F;bayesian_analysis_conversion_rates.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.chrisstucchio.com&#x2F;blog&#x2F;2013&#x2F;bayesian_analysis_co...</a><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;cdn2.hubspot.net&#x2F;hubfs&#x2F;310840&#x2F;VWO_SmartStats_technical_whitepaper.pdf" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;cdn2.hubspot.net&#x2F;hubfs&#x2F;310840&#x2F;VWO_SmartStats_technic...</a>