&gt; Coupled with lack of global consumer brands, corruption, pollution, demographics issues, global slowdown, carry trade unwind, rising us interest rates...<p>You don&#x27;t need global consumer brands when your country is the size of China. They have 15% of the world&#x27;s population and speak a language that few outside the country can speak and even fewer can read: nobody else is going to come in and take those customers except Chinese companies. Corruption is being cleaned up; but it&#x27;s still a real problem at the local level. Again, pollution is a huge problem but China is betting the farm on &quot;clean&quot; energy tech and will be the energy leaders of the world in 20 years. If (or when) they figure it out, they&#x27;re the only ones with the manufacturing skill and capacity to mass-produce.<p>The truth is, we&#x27;ve never seen what happens when a large country &quot;awakens&quot; in the age of globalization. Macroeconomic theory is largely based on the import&#x2F;export balance, which is increasingly less important as borders become less meaningful (and import&#x2F;export controls become increasingly difficult to enforce).<p>I have a feeling that China will surprise us - despite the fact that they will have negative population growth over the next few decades and an aging population, the fact that they are actively moving subsistence farmers to the cities may stall the effect of a shrinking population with the added consumption &#x2F; demand from turning poor farmers into urban consumers. Their aging population is also accustomed to a lower standard of living than the up-and-coming generation. Population deflation has been especially damaging to Japan because it hit them after they had become a heavily industrialized country. Despite the huge progress China has made, hundreds of millions of people still live in poor farming villages. That&#x27;s a source of potential growth that I expect the Chinese government to tap strategically.