One problem with the pessimistic mental model is that it provides nowhere else to go with reasoning. For example, how can a tracking device cause problems with insurance claims, if insurance companies never pay claims anyway? If the worst is always expected, then any heuristic returns the same result.<p>The other problem is that it&#x27;s contradicted by mountains of evidence--insurance companies pay millions of claims ever year. I know a lot of people who have been paid for losses by insurance companies, including me, even when they were at fault.<p>Extreme pessimism is itself a weak mental model in that it does not adapt itself to evidence. It takes no effort at all to parachute into any given conversation and say &quot;that&#x27;ll never work.&quot;