By that logic everything has a 10% chance of ending in the next (history length &#x2F; 10) period.  The year has a greater than 10% chance of ending in the next 2 days. Apple has a greater than 10% chance of closing up shop in the next 5 years.  There is a 10% chance that Y Combinator won&#x27;t exist in a year.  It is a prediction based on assumptions about statistics and takes nothing else into consideration.