Don&#x27;t know if this helps, but - that prediction strategy doesn&#x27;t work if your passion&#x27;s for a hits-driven &#x2F; inverse-square-law business.<p>Lots of authors, for example, write for +-20 years before writing the book that breaks them out - some of them even have HN accounts :) The calculus is similar for starting businesses, films (although the odds there are even more terrible), etc.<p>And experience accumulated reduces failure chance. I recall there&#x27;s a statistic that most <i>successful</i> businesses are started by people your age, not people in their 20s.