That implies an exclusively pessimistic model, however.  My suggestion was to simply have a more pessimistic prior.  As you say, insurance has to pay out _something_ _sometime_ by the data, and I&#x27;ve certainly seen some of those payouts myself (and sometimes even had them be advantageous in my favor), but if there&#x27;s enough prior for adversarial interaction it seems a more more robust approach to plan for a worst case scenario even if it doesn&#x27;t end up happening; or at least don&#x27;t be exclusively optimistic, for this provides the same but inverted issues as exclusive pessimism.