Imagine you&#x27;re figuring out the chance that you&#x27;ll die this year. Let&#x27;s say you&#x27;re 30--probably a common age on HN. There&#x27;s a 10% chance that you&#x27;re in the last 10% of your life. Therefore, there&#x27;s a 10% chance that you&#x27;ll die in the next three years.<p>If you sold life insurance using those kinds of numbers, you&#x27;d have some woes.<p>If you can&#x27;t use probability meaningfully, it&#x27;s better not to use it at all; it obfuscates.