I strongly disagree.<p>You can keep a low hit-rate and focus on giant returns by playing the lottery, but fortunes are built on compound interest and diversified portfolios.<p>Reducing the number of failures does not mean getting rid of the big winners. It could mean focusing on large existing industries over speculative, pie-in-the-sky trends.<p>Think about ZenPayroll (disclaimer: early employee there, biased.) Product-focused payroll is not sexy, but the impact is massive and a tremendous business opportunity. We&#x27;re now building software for local governments. Not sexy, huge market, huge impact on humans, clear path to single, double, and home-run.<p>My biggest frustration with looking for founding teams chasing these speculative bets is the sheer waste of human talent. I don&#x27;t want to see another all-star team waste their time on bitcoin and food-delivery.<p>There are real, serious problems with the same upside but whose &quot;failure&quot; scenario may be a $25m business.