&quot;Can it really be true that violent crime was declining between 1973-91? There&#x27;s no question that this is what the NCVS data tells us, but it sure doesn&#x27;t match what everyone thought was going on at the time. By the early 90s, virtually everyone in America was convinced that (a) crime had been rising relentlessly for decades and (b) it would continue rising. (Remember &quot;superpredators&quot;?) At a purely gut level, a crime decline during this period sure doesn&#x27;t feel right.&quot;<p>I think this can and may be true. See Pinker&#x27;s arguments in The Better Angels of our Nature. It seems obvious to me that people&#x27;s perceptions of crime are influenced to a huge extent by media reporting. People have irrational, unfounded beliefs all the time, so I don&#x27;t see why they should be indicative of anything.