A lot of traders have the &quot;illusion of confidence,&quot; in fact most of them do. They have good year or two and think it&#x27;s the result of skill rather than luck. That confidence causes them to place riskier bets which then implode. Hedge funds follow this curve all the time...  that&#x27;s why you hear about massive profits one year and then next year the fund implodes.<p>Beating the market (after fees) over and over again is something only a small elite can do. Most of the rest of the finance industry is full of people with vastly inflated views of their own abilities.