I&#x27;d like to see someone describe how to do this in practice.  Maximizing variance doesn&#x27;t do you much if your high end doesn&#x27;t beat the others, especially if you don&#x27;t know how high you have shoot.    If you overlap two candidate probability distributions and know what you have to beat in order to win, you can make a choice.    In my dabblings in FanDuel, I&#x27;ve tried to maximize the expected value, and found that this produced surprisingly  wild results - I&#x27;ve jumped from the 99 percentile one week to the .1 percentile the next.