<i>Isn’t the whole basis of venture investment being able to identify business that will return above the risk-adjusted return?</i><p>Yes, but as a VC you can offset that risk by investing in a range of startups - 9 out of 10 will fail, but the 1 that succeeds will pay for the rest plus a profit. Plus VCs have teams of researchers and analysts to inform them, and they expect the startups themselves to offer some evidence that they can win despite the risk.<p>You can&#x27;t really offset the risk in your career because you can only work for one company at a time, and won&#x27;t have access to the same information about markets and competition as a VC. For you the chance of the startup you choose to work in succeeding is basically the same as any other, although you do get to directly affect it&#x27;s chances by working hard.