2 years is a very loooong time!  Several things that are working in your favour:<p>1.  Facebook makes revenue from advertising.  People are being increasingly turned off by advertising.  As people close accounts, the management gets worried and pushes advertising even more.  Advertisers buy eyeballs&#x2F;clicks&#x2F;impressions - whatever - it&#x27;s all about the numbers.  Less users, means less value, hence less revenue to FB.<p>2.  The cool kids don&#x27;t use what they parents and grandparents use.  So as the &quot;oldies&quot; join, the youngsters drop off.  But the oldies don&#x27;t like advertising either ...<p>3.  FB does NOT pay dividends.  So why would you buy shares other than to sell at a profit?  Which sooner or later ends up being a re-run of the Tulip Bulb craze.  As soon as there are no buyers to be found at a particular price point, the prices collapse and increasing numbers of people try to offload which then pushes prices further down.<p>Caveat:  I&#x27;m an engineer not a stock broker nor an accountant, the following is my back of the envelope calcs.<p>4.  If FB responds to market pressure and decides to pay a dividend, then based on current revenues of $3b and 2.74b shares, you could expect a dividend around 50c which, looking WPP Holdings 2014 financials for comparison (eps 85, div 38, sp 1400), would have a FB share price approx $20 - compare this to currently at $105 ($38 at IPO).<p>Based on the above, the users and investors will bring about the demise you need to safeguard your bet.<p>BTW: Did you see the 1983 movie &quot;Trading Places&quot; with Eddie Murphy and Dan Aykroyd?