&gt; I don&#x27;t know anything about oil, but it seems unrealistic to claim to be able to predict markets.<p>The author&#x27;s position is less about predicting markets than it is about &quot;if you&#x27;re operating a horse &amp; buggy business in 1885, you&#x27;re best off winding it up&quot;.  The debate here seems to be about whether &#x27;today&#x27; is 1885 or 1855 or 1825, so to speak.