I was about to jump on that bet too.  Regardless of the technical hurdles, I would bet the regulatory hurdles alone are too big for 3 years.  5 year? Maybe not.  10 years? Hail no.   But 3 years is a very short amount of time to get everything cleared up, especially with an election year coming up. My guess is that the interest groups who would oppose autonomous cars is a diverse enough coalition across the political spectrum that changing laws will not be super easy.