It is related, and is called the inspection paradox. Identified for me by Allen Downey, with some explanation below:<p><a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;allendowney.blogspot.com&#x2F;2015&#x2F;11&#x2F;recidivism-and-single-case-probabilities.html?showComment=1448932959307#c8157557553082969443" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;allendowney.blogspot.com&#x2F;2015&#x2F;11&#x2F;recidivism-and-singl...</a>