This seems a clearer statement of your position. Absolutely, don&#x27;t base 100% of your life on a 5% shot at an exit. That is indeed a common failure mode. But your reaction to this observation seems too extreme. It is possible to work these things out probabilistically. Treat your career as a portfolio, spend 80% say of it in relatively safe places, spend the remaining 20% in multiple places, don&#x27;t stay too long if you stop believing in a place. Do all that, and the 5% probabilities add up. 5% here, 5% there can add up to real money.<p>It seems sub-optimal to assume that probabilistic money isn&#x27;t money, it&#x27;ll close you off to lots of opportunities for wealth.