Lung cancer has a normal occurrence of something like 60 in 100,000.<p>If we are as conservative as we can be and say the increase is <i>only</i> 36% from all of these smog days, that would mean that the rate should increase to 82&#x2F;100,000.<p>Beijing&#x27;s population is ~21 million. The 22 &#x2F; 100,000 increase from the base rate would mean an additional 5,000 lung cancer deaths in Beijing due to the smog. That&#x27;s the <i>minimum</i>.  The more realistic number is surely an order of magnitude or more higher -- this level of pollution is unprecedented in modern times.