The reality is that the chance that an individual can convert being significantly smarter than the rest of their generation into  becoming the largest shareholder in a de facto monopoly in a particular tech space is negligible. Whereas the chance of converting being significantly better at basketball than the rest of their generation into becoming a multimillionaire basketball star (with or without well-planned endorsements) is extremely high, with only injuries and attitude problems to hold them back.<p>If you&#x27;re a young LeBron James (or Usain Bolt or Lionel Messi) your chances of becoming a multimillionaire owe very little to where you start and who you meet. Talent in sport is very efficiently identified, promoted and developed. You can&#x27;t expect the same probability of outstanding success from a young person with the same personal characteristics as Mark Zuckerberg.<p>Startup founders are rolling the dice with Taylor Swift and the musicians. Massive talent coupled with attitude helps a fair bit, and above average talent is a basic requirement. But the sharpest minds have no reason to expect they&#x27;ll make it to the top, and not everyone that makes it to the top owes it to &quot;genius&quot;