That is the wrong wy to think about it. If you want to take an analogy, and I still dislike it but if pushed, I would call it sportsbetting.<p>There is a degree of chance (lets stop using luck) about both start ups and sportsbetting. They depend on forces outside of one&#x27;s control.<p>However, a lottery mathematically dictates that you will have a poor outcome of winning and all you can do is increase your probability by buting tickets. A startup has more control over how it operates.<p>A gambler can watch tapes and use past performance to find a perceived mismatch between the spread or gaming lines, and their appraisal.<p>Many gamblers are unsuccessful. However there is a reason that the same couple guys seem to make it to the end of the world series of poker every year[0].<p>Peter Theil discusses it in depth in <i>You&#x27;re not a lottery ticket</i>[1]. Startups are risky as hell and even smart people with good ideas fuck them up. However, smart people with good ideas only rarely win the lottery[2]<p>[0]amnended qoute from rounders.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;m.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=g7VMjutSNHk" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;m.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=g7VMjutSNHk</a><p>[2]<a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;m.nydailynews.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;crime&#x2F;mit-students-scammed-massachusetts-state-lottery-8-million-report-article-1.1128482" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;m.nydailynews.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;crime&#x2F;mit-students-scammed-mas...</a>