<p><pre><code>    For example, you would assign a very low prior probability to your friend telling you that she met her 5’2” tall second cousin last Tuesday at   8:47am at 11 feet northwest of the smaller statue in a certain square. Nevertheless, after   she made such a claim to you, you would likely place a high    probability that the event happened as claimed. On topics   like this, most people are fairly reliable.
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This is a bad example. &quot;you would assign a very low prior probability to your friend telling you __________&quot;. If it was a prediction, yes, that would be extraordinary, but it&#x27;s not.<p>Its the same as if someone told you they flipped a coin 100 times and got a certain sequence of heads and tails. The probability of that happening is 1&#x2F;2^100, but it&#x27;s only extraordinary if you predict it in advance.