&gt; One big question is how quickly frackers would ramp up production again if oil prices rise.<p>What would Nash say about this?<p>a) Stable: Saudis: production high, prices low. US: shale not developed. (OPEC: no &quot;cheating,&quot; production adjusts to price.)<p>b) Unstable: SA: low supply. OPEC: cheating. US: shale.<p>c) Unstable: SA: whiplash production and hopefully prices to continually scare US producers out of market. OPEC members desiring predictable revenues revolt &#x2F; periodic shortfalls make cheating rampant. US: prep work &#x2F; tech developments for quick spin-up shale projects. Or, big tanks: Massive arbitrage opportunities emerge for futures and warehousing, cutting against SA&#x27;s ability to control prices.<p>Good article, but I think there&#x27;s reason to believe SA (or really, US shale) has put a ceiling on oil that isn&#x27;t going to budge for a while.<p>(OTOH, oil price forecasting has historically ranked highly among foolish human endeavors... )