Bayesian thinking is so pervasive, and in most cases so unconsicous, that you don&#x27;t even have to look that far.<p>&quot;Where did my keys go?&quot;<p>They vanished into thin air is not even considered, because its prior is zero.<p>I must have put them somewhere else is the instant frontrunner, because I do it so often.<p>After much unsuccessful searching, hypotheses such as &quot;someone is playing a joke on me&quot; or &quot;my wife accidentally grabbed them&quot; might be considered -- low priors that require additional evidence.<p>Probably only after noticing something like a broken window would &quot;someone broke in and stole them&quot; be considered -- extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.<p>And so on...