That&#x27;s a different issue. I think what @lintiness is trying to say is that just because a market went up in the past does not mean it will in the future. Survivorship bias is absolutely huge here.<p>Most people forget this, but if you look at global markets since the early 1900&#x27;s, there were several that went down and never came back up. Germany&#x27;s markets failed on at least one occasion and never came back. A good paper that addresses part of this is here: <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.researchgate.net&#x2F;publication&#x2F;4913017_Global_Stock_Markets_in_the_Twentieth_Century" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.researchgate.net&#x2F;publication&#x2F;4913017_Global_Stock...</a><p>Depression and war do many things that create discontinuities. Most people don&#x27;t come close to thinking about those because they aren&#x27;t knowledgeable enough to even understand how strong the survivorship bias in their current local market like the US.