Your game theory is accurate, but I think your systems design understanding is lacking.<p>We will have an extremely difficult time making all crypto illegal. Cryptography is crucial to important pieces of infrastructure we use for trust and security.<p>We may reach the point where certain implementation or tools are outlawed. In which case people with stuff to hide will piggyback it inside legal tools.<p>I suspect we will be more likely to see a combination of these approaches:<p>1) Forcing entities that sell products that provide encryption capabilities to maintain access for the government.<p>2) Pass laws that make it illegal to avoid or materially assist others in avoiding government surveillance without authorization