I bet there&#x27;s a world wide natural experiment going on right now (since the late 90&#x27;s) on that very subject. I also bet that there&#x27;s several very smart people working on that very question.<p>The real questions are who are these people, what is their data, and what can they conclude? Maybe the fine folks over at Freakonomics might have a hint.<p>In the end, I believe we should believe what the academic Economists have to say about it.