Decades in to the US Middle Eastern military excursions very few Americans appears to know much of anything about what is going on - either geographically, politically, or historically. There does not appear to be agreement among the top civilian and military leadership or intelligence agencies, right or wrong, as to what is going on, why, or what to do.<p>Hollywood likes black and white narratives, things like Nazis vs the rest of the world. The mass media, pundits, and politicians follow this path. Much of what has occurred has been heavily politicized and yet both Republican and Democrats completely inoculate each other to the bad decision making because it is so damning to not just the Bush administration but the Obama administration as well. Even today I find very few people who understand the conflicts between the Sunni and Shia. The mental model of what is going on in most American&#x27;s heads is kind of like a Donald Duck cartoon during World War II.<p>There may now be very few paths where the outcome is not an Islamist State (probably the best of all word choices) of one shape or another. The paths that successfully prevent it may be even worse. Both the Bush and Obama administrations repeatedly outlined their goals for democracy in the Muslim world. They are going to get it. Of course, there is nothing preventing a democracy from voting to remove basic human rights.<p>The only thing I&#x27;m certain of at this point is an Islamist State poses a massive threat to the UAE, a big threat to India (because of the nuclear situation with Pakistan), a large threat to Israel, a pretty big threat to Europe, a small threat to Russia, and minimal threat to the US - which makes it ironic who is calling the shots.